Core Viewpoint - On July 30, the A-share market in Shanghai and Shenzhen showed a significant disparity in stock performance, with a total of 1,632 stocks rising and 3,376 stocks falling, indicating a bearish market sentiment overall [1] Industry Summary - The stocks that hit the upper limit of their trading range were primarily concentrated in the following sectors: pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, textiles and apparel, machinery and equipment, food and beverage, and light industry manufacturing [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, closing at 2406.59, up by 1.86% [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.8 trillion, marking an increase of 609 billion compared to the previous trading day, indicating active trading sentiment [5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (up 3.29%), Steel (up 2.59%), and Pharmaceutical & Biological (up 2.06%), while Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery saw a decline of 1.36% [2][3] - Notable concept indices that performed well included CRO Concept, Recombined Protein, and Innovative Drugs, while sectors like Pork and Chicken experienced declines [3] Policy Impact - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy, effective from January 1, 2025, is expected to boost consumer retail sales, providing marginal growth momentum for social consumption [4][5] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is showing strong support around the 3600-point mark, with a potential breakthrough expected to enhance overall market confidence [5] - The market is entering a phase of policy dividend release and maintaining reasonable liquidity, indicating a gradual structural bull market [5] Investment Focus - Recommended sectors for investment include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), Public Utilities, Pharmaceuticals, and Financials, as they are expected to perform well in the current market environment [5]

从港股行业表现来看，今年1月1日至7月29日，申万31个一级行业全部上涨，其中涨幅超过20%的行业 24个，涨幅超过40%的行业15个，涨幅超过60%的行业6个，涨幅前三大行业分别为农林牧渔、轻工制 造、医药生物，涨幅分别达174.98%、147.57%、103.13%；涨幅居后三大行业分别为家用电器、建筑装 饰，煤炭，涨幅分别为7.53%、9.52%、10.58%。 【深圳商报讯】（记者钟国斌）今年以来，港股领涨全球主要股市。DeepSeek、新消费、创新药等板 块轮番表现，助推港股恒生指数频创年内新高。据记者统计，截至今年7月29日，恒生指数收报 25524.45点，涨幅达27.24%，在全球主要股市涨幅第一。 从全球主要股市表现来看，今年以来港股市场一枝独秀。以美股、欧洲股市和日本股市为例，今年以 来，美国股市三大指数涨幅均为个位数，其中道琼斯指数涨幅为5.39%、标普500指数涨幅为8.64%，纳 斯达克指数涨幅为9.67%；德国、英国、法国股市涨幅分别为21.74%、11.53%、6.80%；日本股市日经 225指数涨幅为1.96%。 （文章来源：深圳商报） 从港股个股表现来看，今年1月1日至7月2 ...

昨日基金共对19家公司进行调研，扎堆调研申通快递、太力科技、沪电股份等。 证券时报·数据宝统计，7月25日共25家公司被机构调研，按调研机构类型看，基金参与19家公司的调研 活动。申通快递最受关注，参与调研的基金达12家；太力科技、沪电股份等分别获5家、4家基金集体调 研。 基金参与调研的公司中，按所属板块统计，深市主板公司有10家，创业板公司有4家，沪市主板公司有2 家，科创板公司有3家。所属行业来看，基金调研的公司共涉及12个行业，所属电子行业最多，有4家公 司上榜；基础化工、国防军工等紧随其后，分别有2家、2家公司上榜。 从基金调研公司的A股总市值统计，总市值在500亿元以上的共有3家，其中总市值超千亿元的有三峡能 源等，总市值不足100亿元的有11家，分别是江苏华辰、威力传动、太力科技等。 业绩方面，基金调研公司中，公布上半年业绩预告的共有5家，业绩预告类型来看，预增有2只。以净利 润增幅中值来看，净利润增幅最高的是利尔化学，预计净利润中值为2.70亿元，同比增幅为190.62%。 （数据宝） 7月25日基金调研公司一览 | 代码 | 简称 | 基金家数 | 最新收盘价（元） | 近5日涨跌幅（%） ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight," indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 10% in the next 6-12 months [31]. Core Insights - The weekly average trading volume on the North Exchange reached 31.08 billion yuan, a 42.4% increase compared to the previous week, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 2.85% [5][12]. - Key stocks that performed well included Hengli Drilling Tools (up 184.1%), Tietuo Machinery (up 64.9%), and Jikang Instruments (up 51.1%) [12][15]. - Significant news includes a record-breaking humanoid robot project by UBTECH worth 90.51 million yuan and the commencement of a 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower project in Tibet [14][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The North Exchange's average daily trading volume was 31.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 42.4% week-on-week increase, with a daily turnover rate of 3.3% [5][6]. - The North Exchange 50 index saw a weekly increase of 2.85% [5]. Key News and Policies - A humanoid robot project by UBTECH set a global record with a contract worth 90.51 million yuan, with plans to deliver 500 units within the year [14]. - The 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River has officially commenced, expected to boost the infrastructure sector [16]. Core Driving Factors - Regulatory deepening and institutional optimization are progressing alongside the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC), which showcased advancements in AI and robotics [26]. - The infrastructure sector is gaining momentum due to the Yarlung Tsangpo project, with increased activity in related industries [27]. - Market sentiment is improving with a return of liquidity, although volatility remains low [28]. Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Focus on sectors aligned with new productive forces, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and new energy equipment, prioritizing companies with technological barriers and scarce products in the A-share market [29]. - Emphasize growth companies with revenue and profit growth exceeding 20% and R&D intensity above 5%, while avoiding high-valuation sectors lacking performance support [29]. - Monitor event-driven catalysts, including project announcements and mergers, which may disrupt the current low-volatility environment [29].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the marginal changes in the "heat" (attention) of broad-based indices. By identifying the index with the highest weekly heat change rate, the strategy rotates into that index. If the "Other" group (stocks not included in the four main indices) has the highest heat change rate, the strategy remains in cash[7][13]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly heat change rate for the components of four major indices (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000) and the "Other" group. 2. Smooth the weekly heat change rate using a 2-week moving average (MA2). 3. At the end of each week, invest in the index with the highest MA2 heat change rate. If the "Other" group has the highest rate, remain in cash[13][16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates a clear logic of leveraging market sentiment shifts to generate returns[13]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 8.74% since 2017[16] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.5%[16] - **2025 YTD Return**: 20.9%[16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Total Heat Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: The total heat indicator aggregates the attention metrics (e.g., browsing, watchlist additions, and clicks) of individual stocks. It is normalized as a percentage of the total market and scaled by 10,000. This indicator serves as a proxy for market sentiment[7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Aggregate the browsing, watchlist, and click counts for each stock. 2. Normalize the aggregated value as a percentage of the total market. 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to obtain the total heat indicator, with a range of [0, 10,000][7]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures market sentiment and can be used to identify mispricing due to overreaction or underreaction[7]. 2. Factor Name: Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the weekly change in the total heat indicator, smoothed using a 2-week moving average. It reflects short-term sentiment dynamics[13][20]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly change rate of the total heat indicator for each stock. 2. Smooth the weekly change rate using a 2-week moving average (MA2)[13][20]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is useful for identifying short-term sentiment-driven opportunities in broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[13][20]. 3. Factor Name: Concept Heat Ranking - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor ranks concepts based on their weekly heat change rates. It identifies the top and bottom concepts for constructing portfolios[28][31]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Rank concepts by their weekly heat change rates. 2. Select the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rates. 3. Construct two portfolios: - **TOP Portfolio**: Select the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within each of the top 5 concepts. - **BOTTOM Portfolio**: Select the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within each of the top 5 concepts[31]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor captures the behavioral tendencies of investors, leveraging the rapid price adjustments in high-attention stocks[28][31]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Total Heat Indicator - **No specific backtesting results provided** 2. Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **No specific backtesting results provided** 3. Concept Heat Ranking - **BOTTOM Portfolio Annualized Return**: 15.71%[33] - **BOTTOM Portfolio Maximum Drawdown**: 28.89%[33] - **2025 YTD Return for BOTTOM Portfolio**: 29.2%[33]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.17% today, with a trading volume of 841.35 million shares and a transaction value of 1,138.73 billion yuan, an increase of 1.39% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included Non-Bank Financials (up 1.11%), Defense and Military (up 1.04%), and Pharmaceutical and Biological (up 0.88%) [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines were Coal (down 2.46%), Steel (down 1.84%), and Beauty and Personal Care (down 1.59%) [2]. Detailed Industry Data - Non-Bank Financials: - Change: +1.11% - Transaction Value: 647.20 billion yuan (up 11.70%) - Leading Stock: Zhongyin Securities (up 6.61%) [1] - Defense and Military: - Change: +1.04% - Transaction Value: 496.34 billion yuan (up 57.68%) - Leading Stock: Xinguang Optoelectronics (up 13.27%) [1] - Pharmaceutical and Biological: - Change: +0.88% - Transaction Value: 986.89 billion yuan (down 13.87%) - Leading Stock: Erkang Pharmaceutical (up 14.89%) [1] - Coal: - Change: -2.46% - Transaction Value: 95.76 billion yuan (down 14.49%) - Leading Stock: Shanxi Coking Coal (down 6.18%) [2] - Steel: - Change: -1.84% - Transaction Value: 129.93 billion yuan (down 18.37%) - Leading Stock: Liugang Co. (down 8.58%) [2] - Beauty and Personal Care: - Change: -1.59% - Transaction Value: 52.80 billion yuan (down 7.19%) - Leading Stock: Baiya Co. (down 7.94%) [2]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for the index, suggesting a "slowly rising oscillating market" pattern, with short-term risks of adjustment as the index approaches key levels [2][11][19] - There are two main doubts regarding the market breakthrough: "the fundamentals have not yet bottomed" and "the fiscal support for anti-involution is weak" [12][30] - The central Huijin is identified as a core driving force behind the current market breakthrough, providing stability and support through sustained long-term capital inflows [13][19] Group 2 - The trading heat is currently high, with a significant number of industries showing increased trading activity, particularly in anti-involution sectors [20][21] - The report highlights that the trading volume in several anti-involution industries has surpassed warning thresholds, indicating heightened market activity [23][28] - The report notes that while the overall trading heat is elevated, it does not necessarily indicate the end of the market rally, as seen in previous years [21][30] Group 3 - The anti-involution market phase is characterized by skepticism regarding the strength of fiscal support, despite recent policy changes that may extend the definition of anti-involution [30][31] - Future prospects for the anti-involution market depend on the strength of demand-side policies; insufficient support may lead to a temporary rebound rather than a sustained reversal [34][35] - The report outlines three advantages driving the anti-involution trend: high-level policy attention, clean chip distribution in industries, and increased market risk appetite [31][32] Group 4 - The report recommends a diversified investment strategy focusing on technology, military, finance, and stable dividend stocks, alongside gold [35][36] - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include AI, robotics, semiconductors, and consumer goods, with an emphasis on areas showing marginal improvement in profit growth [36][37] - The report suggests that the current market environment requires a "bull market mindset" while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid blind chasing of highs [35][36]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.33% to close at 3593.66 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreasing by 0.22% to 11168.14 points. The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.23% to 2340.06 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 2.07% to 1054.20 points. Overall, 2724 stocks declined, 2532 stocks rose, and 158 stocks remained flat, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets amounting to 12189 billion yuan, a decrease of 6258.16 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, electronic, computer, real estate, light manufacturing, textile and apparel, and media sectors led the gains, while construction decoration, building materials, food and beverage, coal, comprehensive, and steel industries experienced declines [1][2]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included GPU, Kimi, multimodal models, ChatGPT, photolithography machines, intelligent agents, servers, selected rare metals, AIGC, artificial intelligence, machine vision, ASIC chips, selected semiconductors, Xiaohongshu platform, and Pinduoduo partners [2].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% today, with a trading volume of 915.04 million shares and a turnover of 1,124.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.75% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Light Industry Manufacturing: increased by 0.54% with a turnover of 12.62 billion yuan, led by Tianan New Material, which rose by 10.05% [1]. - Computer: increased by 0.52% with a turnover of 107.90 billion yuan, led by Tianrun Technology, which rose by 22.94% [1]. - Textile and Apparel: increased by 0.42% with a turnover of 8.71 billion yuan, led by Hongqingting, which rose by 7.58% [1]. - The worst-performing industries included: - Building Decoration: decreased by 1.87% with a turnover of 38.46 billion yuan, led by Deep Water Planning Institute, which fell by 14.62% [2]. - Building Materials: decreased by 1.69% with a turnover of 19.11 billion yuan, led by Huaxin Cement, which fell by 9.25% [2]. - Comprehensive: decreased by 1.21% with a turnover of 2.34 billion yuan, led by Nanjing New Hundred, which fell by 6.38% [2]. Summary of Key Stocks - Notable gainers included: - Tianan New Material (Light Industry Manufacturing) with a gain of 10.05% [1]. - Tianrun Technology (Computer) with a gain of 22.94% [1]. - Hongqingting (Textile and Apparel) with a gain of 7.58% [1]. - Notable decliners included: - Deep Water Planning Institute (Building Decoration) with a decline of 14.62% [2]. - Huaxin Cement (Building Materials) with a decline of 9.25% [2]. - Nanjing New Hundred (Comprehensive) with a decline of 6.38% [2].