Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to inflation and consumer sentiment. Despite supply disruptions, overall supply is sufficient, and demand may show a "not-so-peak season" pattern. The price is expected to consolidate at a high level [2][3][5] - For alumina, the price is expected to remain weak as supply stays high, and the surplus will gradually be reflected in social inventory [12][13] - For electrolytic aluminum, the price may be supported by the expected rate cut and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and overseas project progress [16][20] - For casting aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The industry is affected by policy changes, and the supply is tightening [22][27][28] - For zinc, the price may be range-bound and bullish in the short term due to external support and the consumption season, despite the oversupply situation [33][35][36] - For lead, the price may rise slightly as smelter production cuts increase [40][41] - For nickel, the price may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to macro events and potential supply disruptions [44][45][46] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to follow the upward trend of nickel and show a strong oscillation [48][51][52] - For tin, the price may remain volatile as the demand peak season has not materialized [55][58][59] - For industrial silicon, the price may rebound in the short term due to supply - side reform expectations and increased demand from polysilicon [61][63][64] - For polysilicon, the price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high [67][68][69] - For lithium carbonate, the price may continue to decline in the short term and is waiting for a stabilization signal [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2510 closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, and the open interest increased. The spot market was weak due to high prices [2] - **Important Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary, a call from the German economic minister, a production cut at a Chilean mine, and other news [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro data strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply decreased in August and September, but imports increased. Consumption showed a weakening trend [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Consolidate at a high level for single - side trading. Consider cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage. Wait and see for options [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2510 rose 18 yuan to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price declined [7] - **Related Information**: Spot transactions, capacity operation, warehouse receipts, and production cuts due to environmental protection [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot market became more active, but the price is expected to fall. The overall supply is high, and warehouse receipts may increase [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2510 rose 50 yuan to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price increased [16] - **Related Information**: PMI data, inventory changes, and overseas project progress [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The expected rate cut and inventory trends are the focus. Overseas projects are progressing as planned [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2511 rose 25 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price was stable in most regions [22] - **Related Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry, inventory changes, and import/export data [22][23][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes affect the industry, and the supply is tightening. The price may be stable and slightly bullish [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at a high level for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.59% to 22,325 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was average [31] - **Related Information**: Inventory increase and a production cut at a smelter [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is sufficient, but the refined zinc output may decrease in September. Demand may improve in the consumption season [33][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.06% to 16,850 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot market had low procurement enthusiasm [38] - **Related Information**: Implementation of a new electric bicycle standard [39] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and smelter production cuts are increasing. Demand remains weak [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise slightly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell 240 to 122,530 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot premium decreased [44] - **Related Information**: Unrest in Indonesia, new RKAB quota regulations, and project awards [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro events may increase price volatility. Although the unrest has not affected production, there are potential risks [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate strongly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of SS2510 rose 85 to 12,960 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price was stable [48] - **Important Information**: Rising nickel prices and global stainless - steel production data [51] - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the upward trend of nickel. Inventory decreased slightly, and the consumption season may bring optimism [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillation for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53] Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2510 rose 210 yuan/ton to 273,980 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was quiet [55] - **Related Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and a production cut at a smelter [56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance continues. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand is in the off - season [58] - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile for single - side trading. Wait and see for options [59][60] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose 1.13% to 8,470 yuan/ton. The spot price was mostly stable [61] - **Related Information**: A silicon - field standardization workshop will be held during the silicon industry conference [62] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The demand from the silicone industry may weaken, while that from polysilicon may increase. Supply is becoming more abundant. The price may rebound [63] - **Strategy**: May rebound in the short term for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. No options strategy [64] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of polysilicon rose 3.97% to 51,875 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable [67] - **Related Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices increased [68] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Although production may increase in September, sales restrictions and potential production cuts may drive the price up [68] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold call options [69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of the 2511 contract fell 3,260 to 72,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Porsche's business adjustment, a new battery factory, and a lithium sulfide project [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: Battery and cathode production is expected to increase in September, but supply may be affected. The price may continue to decline [73] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stabilization for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the global copper market's volatility decreased, and copper prices showed a narrow - range oscillation with a slow upward trend. The main driver of copper prices in August was its financial attribute, and the fundamentals at home and abroad were differentiated. In September, the financial and commodity attributes of copper are expected to drive prices upwards jointly, and copper prices are expected to reach a second high in the fourth quarter [5][6][105] - The global copper supply and demand pattern in 2025 is tight, with a significant supply gap in copper concentrates. The refined copper surplus scale is expected to narrow, and the domestic copper market will be in a tight - balance pattern [88] Summary by Directory 1. Global Macro and Copper Market - In the third quarter in China, there is a policy window period, but market risk appetite has rebounded. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, which is favorable for copper prices in September. The US manufacturing industry is expanding, the employment market is loose, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, and the US dollar index has weakened [10][12][16] 2. Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine End**: Globally, the supply of copper concentrates in the second quarter was relatively loose, but the annual output increase was limited. The supply shortage situation is difficult to ease in the short term, and the supply gap in 2025 is expected to exceed 1.1 million metal tons. In the future, the increment will mainly come from existing expansion projects [21][25] - **Smelting End**: Although the supply of domestic copper concentrates is tight, the production of refined copper has reached new highs. However, the constraint of mine - end supply on electrolytic copper production will become more obvious in the future. The processing fees of domestic copper concentrates are expected to continue to decline, and the production in the second half of the year is likely to be lower than that in the first half [32][35] - **Recycled Copper**: The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened, and the production of recycled copper has decreased. In the next stage, the substitution effect on copper concentrates is expected to increase [38] - **Electrolytic Copper Trade**: In the first half of 2025, China's electrolytic copper exports increased and imports decreased, achieving a tight - balance in supply and demand. After the US imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper products in August, the import window is expected to open in September, and the import volume will gradually recover [41] 3. Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Copper Products**: The output of domestic copper products is gradually emerging from the off - season. In September, the output is likely to increase month - on - month, and the annual output is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year [46] - **Copper Rod**: The output of refined copper rods is expected to recover. In September, the downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the operating rate of enterprises is expected to rise [49] - **Copper Tube**: The output of copper tubes has decreased month by month, and the copper demand in the third quarter has dropped to the lowest point of the year. In September, the internal and external sales of air - conditioners are expected to decline significantly, and the copper demand will further decrease [52] - **Copper Bar**: The demand for copper bars is expected to decline year - on - year, and the output will show negative growth, becoming the main drag on copper consumption [55] - **Copper Plate and Strip**: The output of copper plate and strip is lower than the average level in recent years. In September, the output is expected to increase month - on - month [58] - **Copper Foil**: The output of copper foil has increased against the trend and is about to enter the peak season. In September, the output is expected to continue to increase and reach a new high for the year [65] - **Power Grid and Power Source Investment**: In 2025, the power grid investment is expected to increase, while the power source investment growth has slowed down. The copper demand on the power source side is expected to decline in the second half of the year compared with the first half [68] - **Real Estate**: The real estate investment improvement is not obvious, and it will still be the main drag on copper consumption this year [71] - **Household Appliances**: The household appliance consumption in the first half of the year has overdrawn the demand in the third quarter, and the copper demand on the household appliance side has gradually declined to the lowest point of the year [74] - **New Energy Vehicles and AI**: The output of new energy vehicles maintains high - speed growth, and the AI copper demand will contribute incremental demand in the future [78] 4. Copper Inventory Change Analysis - In August, the copper inventory trends at home and abroad were significantly differentiated. COMEX and LME copper inventories continued to accumulate, while domestic inventories decreased. In September, the domestic copper fundamentals are expected to strengthen further, and the inventories are expected to decline further [84] 5. Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply gap is expected to exceed 1.1 million metal tons. The refined copper surplus scale is expected to narrow to about 194,000 tons, and the domestic copper market will be in a tight - balance pattern [88] 6. Copper Position Analysis - In August, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options continued to decline, and the net long position decreased, which had a negative impact on copper prices. The long - position of LME copper investment funds remained basically stable [96] 7. Arbitrage Analysis - The copper Shanghai - London ratio has continued to decline since the beginning of the year. The copper - zinc ratio has continued to rise and reached the highest level in the past 10 years, and it is expected to continue to rise in the remaining time of this year [101] 8. Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - In September, the financial and commodity attributes of copper are expected to drive prices upwards jointly. The copper price is expected to reach a second high in the fourth quarter, and the high point will be higher than that in the first half of the year. Downstream demanders are recommended to actively set prices and conduct buying hedging operations on the futures market. The support range for the main contract price of Shanghai copper is expected to be 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [105]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly focusing on copper and aluminum markets, as well as the rare earth sector. [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals have increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to benefit industrial metals like copper and aluminum due to a potential weakening of the dollar and increased economic growth. [2][9] - The expected interest rate cut in September is projected to significantly impact the prices of copper and aluminum, enhancing demand for these metals. [2][11] Rare Earth Market Developments - A new regulatory framework for rare earth management has been introduced, shifting from two major smelting groups to designated enterprises, which is expected to tighten supply and drive up prices for rare earth elements like neodymium and praseodymium. [3][4] - The price of neodymium and praseodymium has surged past 600,000 yuan per ton, supported by seasonal demand and recovering export orders. [4] Aluminum Market Dynamics - The aluminum market has shown signs of a fundamental reversal, with LME and COMEX inventories at historical lows, indicating a tightening supply situation. [6][8] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories have also decreased, and downstream operating rates are recovering, suggesting an improving supply-demand structure. [6] - Long-term projections indicate a decline in global aluminum supply growth due to project delays in Indonesia and production cuts in Africa, while demand from power and infrastructure sectors is expected to rise. [6][8] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. **China Nonferrous Mining**: Expected to double its self-owned mineral output in five years, with a projected profit of 4 billion yuan this year. Current market cap is 29.9 billion yuan, with a potential 50% upside if valuations align with peers. [5] 2. **Jiangxi Copper H Shares**: Valued at 8 times earnings, with a potential 50% upside. Benefits from a 19% stake in First Quantum, which is expected to enhance copper production. [5] 3. **Nangang Steel**: Projected annual profit exceeding 2.9 billion yuan, with a stable dividend yield of 5%. [5] Seasonal Trends in Construction and Aluminum Demand - The construction industry is expected to experience a seasonal rebound from summer lows to stable autumn activity, which will positively impact aluminum demand. [8] - The upcoming months (September to October) are anticipated to see increased operating rates and significant price volatility in aluminum due to low inventory levels. [8] Risks to Consider - Potential risks include the possibility of rising commodity prices leading to inflation exceeding expectations, which could alter future interest rate cut projections. [13] Additional Important Insights - The overall market valuation is currently low at around 8 times earnings, suggesting potential for growth in dividend-paying stocks with defensive characteristics. [7] - The copper market is expected to benefit from macroeconomic improvements, with supply tightening and demand shifting towards a seasonal peak. [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Cobalt Industry - Global cobalt demand is expected to grow, reaching 240,000 to 250,000 tons by 2025, with the U.S. storage plan having a noticeable impact on market demand, particularly in the metal cobalt sector [1][2][3] - The supply-demand dynamics in the cobalt industry are shifting due to the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), leading to reduced supply, while the U.S. storage plan and demand for ternary materials from large cylindrical batteries are driving demand [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise significantly starting in September, with projections indicating an increase from the current price of 260,000 CNY/ton to over 350,000 CNY/ton, representing a rise of more than one-third [1][8] - The strategic nature of cobalt is increasing, similar to the transition seen in the rare earth and tungsten markets, suggesting a favorable outlook for the cobalt sector [1][6] - The recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve have boosted the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting investment opportunities in cobalt and tungsten [1][7] Company-Specific Insights - Huayou Cobalt is highlighted as a key investment target, with expected profits of around 6 billion CNY in 2025 and a market capitalization increase from 70 billion CNY to 80 billion CNY, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 13 times [1][9] - Other companies such as Tengyuan and Hanrui are also noted for their potential, although their benefits may diminish in the third quarter due to the DRC's export ban [1][10] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The overall valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector remains low, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum maintaining low price-to-earnings ratios, making cobalt and other small commodities particularly attractive for investment [1][11] - The copper market is expected to recover in demand during the third quarter, with no significant increase in global copper supply, indicating a favorable window for copper price increases [1][14][15] Additional Important Insights - The cobalt market is sensitive to strategic metal attributes, and the U.S. procurement plan for cobalt, which includes 7,500 tons over five years, will have a significant impact on the metal cobalt market despite its small overall industry share [2][10] - The supply situation is expected to tighten in September due to the DRC's export ban, leading to a relative vacuum in supply and subsequent price increases [1][5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic sentiment is improving, and copper prices are expected to strengthen starting in September 2025. The SHFE copper closing price is 78,690 RMB/ton, down 0.47% from August 15, while the LME copper closing price is 9,797 USD/ton, up 0.37% from the same date [2]. - Domestic copper demand is anticipated to improve post-September, driven by the end of the off-season and increased demand from sectors such as power grids and air conditioning [2][5]. - The report suggests that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are likely to continue rising in 2025 [5]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - Global copper concentrate production in June increased by 3.6% year-on-year but decreased by 4.1% month-on-month. China's copper concentrate production in May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [3][49]. - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 0.2% [3][26]. - **Demand**: - In July, the production of household air conditioners was 16.12 million units, down 0.01% year-on-year but higher than the previous forecast of 15.81 million units [4][92]. - The cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate of cable enterprises at 68.88%, down 0.42 percentage points week-on-week [4][73]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends the following companies for investment: Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate a favorable investment outlook, with all rated as "Accumulate" [6].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 40% of Liangshan Mining Co., Ltd. through a share issuance, while also raising matching funds from China Aluminum Corporation and China Copper Corporation [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The company intends to purchase the 40% stake held by Yunnan Copper (Group) Co., Ltd. in Liangshan Mining Co., Ltd. [1] - The transaction is subject to multiple approval processes, including review by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and registration approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] Group 2: Fundraising - The company will issue shares to raise matching funds from China Aluminum Corporation and China Copper Corporation [1] - The application for the share issuance and fundraising has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange as of August 20, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Global copper supply is facing disruptions, particularly due to incidents at the El Teniente copper mine in Chile, which will affect future production capacity increases. Additionally, Zambia's copper output has declined in Q2 due to acid leaks and lower ore grades. Despite being in a low-demand season, strong demand from the power grid and new energy sectors, along with low domestic social inventory, is supporting copper prices. The expectation of a stable increase in copper prices is bolstered by supply constraints, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the upcoming demand peak in September and October. Furthermore, the domestic rare earth industry is experiencing strong demand, leading to rising prices, particularly in the permanent magnet sector, which is expected to see performance improvements by Q3 2025 [1]. Group 1 - Global copper supply disruptions are ongoing, with Chile's El Teniente mine facing capacity issues due to accidents [1] - Chile has lowered its copper production forecast for this year to 5.58 million tons, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, down from a previously projected 3% [1] - Zambia's Q2 copper production has declined due to acid leaks and lower ore grades [1] Group 2 - Despite being in a low-demand season, demand from the power grid and new energy sectors remains resilient, supporting copper prices [1] - Domestic social inventory is at a low level, maintaining a premium in the spot market for copper [1] - The expectation of stable copper price increases is supported by supply constraints, potential Fed interest rate cuts, and the upcoming demand peak in September and October [1] Group 3 - Domestic large manufacturers are intensively bidding, and the tightening of rare earth export controls has led to increased overseas orders for magnetic materials [1] - The demand for permanent magnets is strong, with some companies extending production schedules to mid-October [1] - The tightening of rare earth supply controls and strong downstream demand are driving continuous price increases in rare earth materials [1] - The permanent magnet industry is expected to see performance improvements driven by volume and price increases by Q3 2025 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies have a positive impact on the market. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market news [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views Copper - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is predicted to operate in the range of 78300 - 79500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading or stay on the sidelines [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is in an upward trend with shock adjustments. It is recommended to take the opportunity to place long orders for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading [3]. Lead - The lead price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 16500 - 17200 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel - In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to moderately hold short positions at high prices for nickel, with the main contract operating in the range of 120000 - 124000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, range trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The tin price is expected to oscillate within the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading and continue to monitor supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Due to various market rumors, the risks in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are relatively high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium price is expected to continue its strong trend. It is recommended to trade cautiously and continue to monitor upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.2 Metal Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the global inventory of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, the global copper inventory increased by 1.27% week - on - week, the global aluminum inventory decreased by 1.38% week - on - week, and the global zinc inventory increased by 8.38% week - on - week [9]. 3.3 Macro Hotspots 3.3.1 Current Week's Macro Data - From August 11 - 17, a series of macro - economic data were released. For example, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index was 25.1, the US July core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and China's July M2 money supply year - on - year was 8.8% [13]. 3.3.2 Sino - US Trade and Financial Data - Since August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff has been suspended for 90 days again. In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales in July slowed down to 3.7%, and the real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year [14][15][16][17]. 3.3.3 US Economic Data - In July, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since February. The US July PPI year - on - year soared from 2.3% to 3.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.9%, a three - year high. The US July customs tariff revenue reached 28 billion US dollars, a record high, but the fiscal deficit still expanded [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Next Week's Macro Data Calendar - From August 18 - 24, important macro - economic data such as the US July new housing starts month - on - month, China's August LPR, and the eurozone's July core harmonized CPI year - on - year final value are scheduled to be released [22]. 3.4 Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - For each metal, the report provides market trend charts (monthly, daily, quarterly lines) and key data tracking, including inventory, spot premium and discount, institutional positions, etc. For example, for copper, it shows the Shanghai copper main contract's monthly line, daily line, and LME copper's relevant data [26][27][28][37][39].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with potential upward movement in Q4 due to recovering demand from the power grid and air conditioning sectors, despite current inventory pressures [3][4]. Macro Environment - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has increased, leading to a weaker US dollar this week [3]. Supply and Demand - The inventory arbitrage logic between the US and non-US regions has ended, with previously stored inventory in the US becoming more visible, leading to short-term accumulation pressure on LME and COMEX [3]. - Domestic cable operating rates have slightly decreased, and air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year from August to October [3]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 4.8%, while LME copper inventory increased by 0.1% [4]. - As of August 15, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 558,000 tons, down 10.0% from the previous week [4]. Raw Materials - In July, domestic old scrap copper production increased by 3% month-on-month and 1% year-on-year [5]. - China's copper concentrate production in May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [5]. Smelting - In July, domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [6][7]. Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with a slight decrease in operating rates [8]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year for the months of August to October [8]. Futures Market - As of August 15, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 5% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 36% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to continue rising in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights that the short-term copper price remains volatile, with SHFE copper closing at 79,060 CNY/ton and LME copper at 9,760 USD/ton as of August 15, 2025 [1][17]. - The report indicates that the inventory dynamics are shifting, with domestic copper social inventory decreasing by 4.8% and LME copper inventory increasing by 0.1% [2][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Update - The copper stocks mostly increased, with SHFE copper price up by 0.73% and LME copper price down by 0.08% compared to the previous week [1][16]. - The report notes a decrease in domestic cable operating rates by 0.6 percentage points [3][79]. 2. Supply - Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports decreased by 10% to 558,000 tons as of August 15, 2025 [2][48]. - The report states that the production of old scrap copper in July increased by 3% month-on-month and 1% year-on-year [2][60]. - The report mentions that the copper concentrate production in China for May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [2][53]. 3. Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate reported at 69.3% [3][79]. - The report indicates that air conditioning production is expected to decline by 2.8% to 12.1% year-on-year from August to October 2025 [3][96]. - The report highlights that the production of copper pipes decreased by 6.4% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year in July [3][96]. 4. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 5% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 36% [4][32]. - The report notes that the COMEX non-commercial net long position reached 28,000 contracts, which is at the 63rd percentile since 1990 [4][32]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].