Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a decline for the first time since the U.S. initiated military actions against Iran, influenced by the announcement of support for oil tankers in the Persian Gulf by the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - U.S. crude oil prices fell by 82 cents, or 1.1%, to $73.74 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent decreased by 57 cents, or 0.7%, to $80.83 [1]. - WTI crude prices nearly reached $78 per barrel earlier in the week, following significant airstrikes against Iran, which led to a 6% increase on Monday and a 5% increase on Tuesday [2]. Group 2: Government Actions and Announcements - President Trump announced that the U.S. would provide insurance for oil tankers through the International Development Finance Corporation and promised naval escorts if necessary [3]. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that further announcements would be made to support oil trade in the Gulf, starting with the insurance provision for crude carriers and cargo ships [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic fuel prices in China are set to increase due to a rise in international oil prices, with an expected increase of 130 yuan per ton, translating to a rise of 0.10 to 0.12 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel [2] - The current crude oil price change rate has reached 3.16%, which is a significant factor influencing the upcoming price adjustment [2] - The article provides a schedule for oil price adjustments throughout the year, indicating specific dates for future adjustments [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Platinum: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - Overnight, precious metals declined with high volatility. The intense situation between the US and Iran, the continuous strengthening of the US dollar, and the rising oil prices have intensified concerns about the economic outlook, weakening the market's bets on the Fed's interest - rate cuts. A significant decline in global stock markets may lead to further liquidity tightening and continue to suppress precious metals. Short - term market volatility has increased, and the subsequent trend is still determined by the war situation. It is recommended to control positions and participate cautiously [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iran Situation - Iran claims to have destroyed two sets of US THAAD systems. The US is considering transferring THAAD and Patriot systems from South Korea to the Middle East [2] - Saudi Arabia and the UAE are considering joining the fight against Iran due to continuous missile attacks. The UAE says it has not changed its defense plan for now [2] - Trump says Iran wants to negotiate but it's too late. The US has sufficient armaments for indefinite combat [2] - Israel has officially mobilized troops for a ground invasion of Lebanon [2] - The US Senate will vote on the "War Powers Resolution" on Wednesday to limit Trump's power to act against Iran [2] - Iran's ambassador to the UN says Iran has not contacted the US for possible peace negotiations [2] - An Iranian opposition news website reports that Khamenei's son has been selected as Iran's next supreme leader [2] Fed - Kashkari originally expected one interest - rate cut in 2026 but is now uncertain due to the war [2] - Williams believes the Fed has to consider the spill - over effects of the Iran issue on foreign markets and trading partners and thinks the interest rate is slightly above the neutral rate [2] - Schmid says the only thing the Fed can do is to continue to suppress inflation [2] Energy Situation - Trump announces to provide insurance for maritime oil transportation, and the navy will expand the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz [3] - Debris from intercepted drones causes a fire at the UAE's major oil trading hub Fujairah [3] - Iraq's oil storage facilities are nearly full, and Iraq will be forced to cut production by more than 3 million barrels per day within a few days [3] - Saudi Aramco is exploring oil exports via the Red Sea [3] - Trump says he can tolerate short - term oil price increases and prioritizes eliminating the Iranian threat [3]

大行晨報 - 警惕油價熊市或仍未完結 - 2026 年 3 月 4 日星島日報 / 頭條日報 https://www.stheadline.com/columnists/finance- property/3549425/%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1- %E8%AD%A6%E6%83%95%E6%B2%B9%E5%83%B9%E7%86%8A%E5%B8%82%E6%88%96%E4%BB%8D %E6%9C%AA%E5%AE%8C%E7%B5%90%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2026年3月4日 原油日报：国内原油期货继续涨停 【行情分析】 OPEC+同意4月份将石油产量提高20.6万桶/日，进一步增产计划暂未确定，后续可能调整。这主 要是应对伊朗遭受袭击之后，其原油出口量将大幅下降，OPEC+将于4月5日举行下一次会议。EIA数据 显示，美国原油库存超预期大幅累库，成品油去库幅度较小，整体油品库存大幅增加。2月份美国原 油库存大起大落，变化较大。俄乌在领土、停火等核心问题上未取得实质性进展，双方仍在相互袭 击。当地时间2月28日，美国和以色列对伊朗发动空袭，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及多名革命卫队高级 指挥官身亡，伊朗对以色列及中东的美军基地予以反击。伊朗原油产量和出口量较大，伊朗日产原 油约330万桶，占全球产量的3%，日均出口约160万桶，且位于原油海运要道—霍尔木兹海峡。2025年 每日约有1300万桶原油通过该海峡，占全球海运原油流量的约31%。伊朗革命卫队宣布任何船只均不 得通过霍尔木兹海峡，已经有多艘油轮遭到了袭击。霍尔木兹海峡油轮通过已经受阻，伊拉克石油 官员表示由于霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势令油轮抵达受阻，导致存储设施满载，伊拉克鲁迈拉油田周二 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - As of the close on March 4, 2026, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for the third consecutive day. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%. On the other hand, tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures also declined significantly. The prices and trends of various futures contracts were affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and seasonal factors [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - **Gainers**: Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for three consecutive days. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%, and plastics and propylene rose nearly 4% [5]. - **Losers**: Tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures fell over 4%, 4%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, also declined, while most treasury bond futures rose, except for the 30-year treasury bond futures [5][6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:19 on March 4, funds flowed into aluminum, fuel oil, and 10-year treasury bond futures, while large amounts of funds flowed out of gold, CSI, and CSI 1000 futures [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Copper prices opened low and rose slightly but remained weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased inflation expectations and reduced the likelihood of the Fed's interest rate cuts, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year. It is expected to reach a record high in March. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the demand for scrap copper is expected to rise, and the supply gap may be filled by overseas imports. High copper prices have led to strong resistance from downstream consumers, and the demand for copper products is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased. Production is expected to decline in February due to seasonal and holiday factors. The overall inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals are short-term tight. The conflict between the United States and Iran has affected the delivery of energy storage batteries in the Middle East, and the export of terminals has been impacted. Although the peak season is approaching, the increase in demand is limited, and the price has some support [10]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and further production increase plans are to be determined. EIA data showed a significant build-up of crude oil inventories in the United States. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have led to disruptions in oil transportation and production. Iraq has cut production, and Qatar has stopped LNG production. Trump's offer to provide insurance and escort for oil tankers has caused oil prices to fluctuate. It is expected that oil prices will remain strong in the near term, and the situation in the Middle East will have a significant impact on oil price volatility [11][12]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased slightly last week and is at a low level compared to previous years. In March, domestic asphalt production is expected to increase month-on-month but decrease year-on-year. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries are gradually resuming work, but the overall demand remains weak. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, but the market is worried about a shortage of raw materials in March due to geopolitical factors. It is expected that asphalt prices will follow the increase in crude oil prices [13][15]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased seasonally, and the enterprise开工率 remained at a relatively low level. The proportion of standard-grade wire production increased. After the Spring Festival, the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has boosted the price of PP. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. It is expected that PP prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [16]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The开工率 of plastic increased after the restart of some maintenance devices and is currently at a neutral to high level. The downstream开工率 of PE decreased seasonally, and the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has had a positive impact on the price of plastic. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. The import of PE from Iran accounts for a small proportion of the total, but the import from the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion. It is expected that plastic prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [17][18]. 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region continued to decline. The开工率 of PVC increased and is at a neutral to high level. After the Spring Festival, the downstream开工率 of PVC increased but is still lower than the same period last year. The export of PVC is expected to be low in March due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the anti-subsidy investigation by India. The social inventory of PVC is still high, and the real estate market continues to adjust. Although the PVC market has a weak reality, it has strong expectations due to policy and maintenance expectations. It is expected that PVC prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [19]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices opened high and closed low. Domestic mines are gradually resuming work, and the inventory of coking coal mines has increased. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. After the Spring Festival, the production of molten iron in steel mills has increased slightly, but the reduction of emissions during the Two Sessions may affect short-term production. The real estate market has introduced some stimulus policies, but the performance of the terminal market still needs to be observed. After the impact of geopolitical conflicts in Iran on the coal market is realized, the price is expected to return to the fundamentals of loose supply and demand and will be under pressure if the macro sentiment remains stable [20][21]. 3.2.9 Urea - Urea prices opened high, fluctuated, and closed slightly higher. The trading volume decreased, and the price was relatively stable. The daily production of urea has reached around 220,000 tons, and there are no long-term shutdown and maintenance plans in the short term. After the Lantern Festival, compound fertilizer factories have resumed work, but the开工 rate in Hebei has been affected by environmental protection. The inventory of urea has started to decrease due to the continuation of agricultural demand and the increase in industrial demand. Although the international urea price is affected by the situation in the Middle East, it has little impact on the domestic market. The price of urea is expected to be range-bound, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a price increase driven by the energy and chemical sector [22].

| E 能 1 | | = | 1 | . | . 2 | P | 17 | 7 2 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | 原油 | ★★☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ★★★ | | 低硫燃料油 ★★☆ | | | 沥青 | ★☆★ | 能源日报 2026年03月04日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 咋夜Brent原油期货价格一度飙升逾9%、触及85美元/桶后虽有回落，但截至今日国内收盘时仍维持在84美元/桶 的高位。与此同时,SC原油主力合约今日再度封涨停板,且已是连续三日涨停，市场强势尽显。此轮油价持续 走强的核心驱动在于中东地缘冲突与供应中断风险的叠加发酵。一方面，美以与伊朗军事对抗持续,阿联酋开 始考虑对伊朗采取军事行动以回应袭击,显示冲突范围不断扩大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the US-Iran conflict on the oil market, particularly focusing on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to significant upward pressure on oil prices due to supply risks [4][10]. Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global oil trade, with approximately 14 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate, and 6 million barrels per day of petroleum products passing through, accounting for about 26% of global trade volume and nearly 20% of global oil consumption [4][11][9]. - The potential closure of the Strait for more than a week could lead to severe inflationary pressures, as short-term solutions to supply disruptions are limited [5][10]. Group 2: Supply Chain Impacts - The conflict has caused disruptions in refinery operations in the Middle East, including a fire at the Aramco Ras Tanura refinery, which has a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day, and preventive shutdowns of Iranian methanol and ethylene glycol facilities [5][14]. - Chinese refineries have also reported reductions in output, affecting the production of aromatics and olefins [5]. Group 3: Price Scenarios and Responses - Various scenarios are outlined regarding oil price movements based on the conflict's progression, with potential price ranges from $60 to $80 per barrel depending on the duration and severity of supply disruptions [6][10]. - OPEC+ has been increasing production, with a planned increase of 20.8 million barrels per day starting in April, which may help mitigate some supply concerns [30][31]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical precedents of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, such as during the Iran-Iraq War, show that oil prices can spike significantly during periods of conflict, with past instances seeing prices rise from around $13 to over $40 per barrel [16][18]. - The article emphasizes the importance of the US's ability to quickly address Iranian naval capabilities to minimize the duration of any blockade, which is critical for stabilizing oil prices [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the US - Iran conflict, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed the crude oil market towards tail - risk, leading to a significant increase in oil prices. The transportation of crude oil and condensate through the Strait of Hormuz is about 14 million barrels per day, and petroleum products are about 6 million barrels per day, accounting for about 26% of global trade volume and about 20% of consumption [4]. - The duration of the closure is crucial. If the closure lasts for a week, there are ways to supplement the supply; if it exceeds a week, the probability of hyper - inflation is relatively high [4]. - Possible solutions include pre - emptive buying by Asian countries, OPEC+ production increase, China's reduction in strategic reserve purchases, US release of strategic reserves, relaxation of sanctions on maritime oil, and price - induced demand suppression. However, these solutions are difficult to quickly offset the short - term large - scale supply shock [4]. - The conflict has spill - over effects on refineries and the chemical industry, including production disruptions in some Middle - Eastern refineries, preventive shutdowns of Iranian methanol and ethylene glycol plants, and preventive production cuts in some Chinese refineries [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. US - Iran Conflict and Its Impact on the Oil Market - **Conflict Background**: The US - Iran conflict started from the domestic unrest in Iran and escalated. In January - February 2026, the US and Iran held three rounds of indirect nuclear talks. On February 28, the US and Israel jointly raided Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei. The conflict has lasted for two months so far, longer than the 12 - day Israel - Iran war in June 2025. Before the conflict escalated on February 28, crude oil buyers were purchasing large amounts of Middle - Eastern oil, leading to an increase in the Middle - Eastern crude oil premium and freight rates [10]. - **Impact on the Oil Market**: Different scenarios of the US - Iran conflict have different impacts on oil supply and prices. For example, in the scenario of no supply disruption, the risk premium will quickly subside, and Brent crude oil will fall back to the range of $60 - 65 per barrel; in the scenario of limited counter - attack, Brent crude oil will briefly surge to $75 - 80 per barrel and then quickly fall back to $60 - 65 per barrel; in the scenario of partial disruption of Iranian exports, the price trend is between the second and fourth scenarios; in the scenario of an impact on fleet transportation efficiency, the price trend is similar to that during the Russia - Ukraine conflict in early 2022, with a significant increase in Brent crude oil and a sharp increase in spot premiums and freight rates [6]. 3.2. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz - **Transport Volume**: The transportation volume of petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz is about 20 million barrels per day, including about 14 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate and about 6 million barrels per day of petroleum products, accounting for 27% of global trade volume and about 20% of global oil consumption [15]. - **Historical Cases**: There have been several historical events related to the Strait of Hormuz. During the Iran - Iraq war from 1980 - 1988, there was an "oil - tanker war" where the transportation volume dropped by about 40% and oil prices soared. In 2011 - 2012, 2018 - 2019, and after the assassination of Soleimani in 2020, Iran threatened to block the strait but did not implement it. In March 2026, Iran officially announced and implemented a full - scale blockade for the first time [19][20][21]. - **Impact on the Economy**: If the closure lasts for 1 - 7 days, oil prices will increase by $30 - 50, inflation expectations will spike, and the equity market will decline; if it lasts for 2 - 4 weeks, financial conditions will tighten, inflation will accelerate, and fragile economies will approach recession; if it lasts for more than 30 days, the probability of recession is over 75%, and global inflation will accelerate by 2 - 4 percentage points; if it lasts for 60 - 90 days, oil prices will rise to a level that destroys demand through an economic crisis [28]. 3.3. US Energy Strategy - **Shale Oil Production**: Due to the depletion of high - quality blocks, technological bottlenecks, and low capital expenditure, US shale oil production has reached its peak in recent years. The EIA predicts a year - on - year decrease of 100,000 barrels per day in US crude oil production in 2026. The US's tariff on Canada and Mexico has led to a decrease in crude oil imports, an increase in the API value of refinery feedstock, and a decrease in oil product yield [33]. - **Overseas Expansion**: Since 2025, the US has implemented an "America First Energy Plan", supporting US oil companies to acquire overseas resources and expand production capacity. It has restarted oil and gas leases in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, and increased investment in Africa, South America, the Middle East, and Canada. In 2026, the US - Iran conflict has led to a re - structuring of the Middle - Eastern energy pattern, with US oil companies withdrawing from Iran and seizing more shares in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq [34]. 3.4. OPEC+ Production Increase - **Production Increase Process**: In April 2025, OPEC+ started to increase production. From April to September, it fully restored the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut. In October 2025, it started the second - stage production increase. In December 2025, it continued to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day and then suspended production increase in Q1 2026. In April 2026, it increased production by 206,000 barrels per day [42][43][46]. - **Production Increase Effect**: The actual production increase effect is lower than the planned amount. After the production increase, the restricted production capacity of OPEC+ has dropped to 3.6 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 1.8 million barrels per day [47][54]. 3.5. Speculative Demand and Inventory Split - **China's Strategic Reserves**: In 2025, China carried out continuous strategic reserves due to low oil prices and frequent geopolitical conflicts. The speculative demand brought about an average year - on - year increase of 200,000 - 300,000 barrels per day. China still has a demand for further reserves. If the supply from the Strait of Hormuz is completely cut off, last year's strategic reserves are only enough for half a month [69]. - **Above - water Inventory**: In 2025, the US's continuous sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela led to an increase in the scale of the shadow fleet and a large - scale increase in off - balance - sheet oil inventory, with about 200 million barrels of off - balance - sheet crude oil inventory currently [70]. - **Dual Pricing under Sanctions**: Sanctioned oil is sold at a deep discount, competing with regular oil. Buyers need to make a choice between low - cost but high - risk sanctioned oil and other markets. Sanctioned oil is mostly in the form of floating storage [77].

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock index futures are down, with Dow futures falling by 0.29%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.19%, and Nasdaq futures decreasing by 0.22% [1] - Large tech stocks are experiencing declines, with Meta and Apple down by 0.3%, Nvidia down by 0.4%, Microsoft down by 0.5%, Tesla down by 0.6%, Google A down by 0.8%, and Amazon down by 0.9% [1] Oil and Cryptocurrency - Oil stocks are slightly up, with Exxon Mobil increasing by nearly 0.1%, Chevron up by 0.12%, and ConocoPhillips up by 0.58%. As of the latest update, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures have risen by 2.08% and 3.26%, respectively, although the gains are narrowing compared to the previous two trading days [1] - Bitcoin has surpassed $71,000, with cryptocurrency-related stocks seeing gains. Figure is up over 1%, Circle up over 4%, and both Strategy and Coinbase up over 5%. Bitcoin is currently priced at $71,113.6, reflecting a 6.0% increase in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum is at $2,070.22, up by 5.32% [1] Company News - Alibaba's stock dropped over 1.6% following the resignation announcement of Lin Junyang, the core leader of Qwen. Lin, who is the youngest P10-level technical leader at Alibaba, stated he needs rest and assured that the team would continue as planned [2] - Billionaire Leo KoGuan, a major shareholder in Tesla, has invested over $100 million in Nvidia, purchasing 1 million shares. He expressed confidence that the AI wave is not a bubble and plans to buy another 1 million shares soon [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar has retreated from a three-month high, influenced by reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The dollar's previous rise was driven by inflows due to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices [2] - Upcoming economic data releases include the U.S. ADP employment change for February and the ISM non-manufacturing index for February [3]