Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. It also maintains an "Accumulate" rating for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Huayou Cobalt (603799), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) [11]. Core Insights - The steel market is expected to slowly recover post-holiday, with attention on actual demand recovery, raw material price trends, and macroeconomic news impacting steel prices [22][4]. - Copper prices are anticipated to remain high and fluctuate due to strong demand expectations from sectors like new energy and AI, despite a slow recovery in demand post-holiday [42][4]. - The aluminum sector is facing average fundamentals, with macroeconomic sentiment significantly influencing aluminum prices; actual demand recovery and macro news are key areas to watch [51][4]. - Gold prices may find support due to rising geopolitical risks, while long-term factors such as central bank gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar will enhance gold's attractiveness [57][4]. - The rare earth sector is expected to maintain high prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide due to ongoing supply shortages [3][4]. Summary by Sections Steel - The total production of five major steel products decreased due to most electric furnace enterprises halting production for the holiday, leading to an increase in inventory [22][24]. - As of February 13, the total steel inventory was 14.39 million tons, a 7.44% increase from February 6, but a 20.56% decrease year-on-year [30][41]. - The average price index for steel on February 13 was 3,409.51 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.14% decrease from February 6 [40][41]. Copper - Copper inventory is on an upward trend, with the overall industry maintaining a weak operational pattern; however, market activity is expected to gradually recover post-holiday [42][49]. - On February 13, the LME copper spot price was 12,700 USD/ton, and the SHFE copper spot price was 100,400 CNY/ton, with respective changes of -0.94% and +0.24% from February 6 [49][49]. Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain low post-holiday, with domestic inventory likely to continue increasing in the short term [51][52]. - On February 13, the LME aluminum spot price was 3,000 USD/ton, and the SHFE aluminum spot price was 23,200 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 1.61% and an increase of 0.09% respectively from February 6 [52][52]. Gold - Geopolitical risks and US economic data are significant factors influencing gold prices, with the COMEX gold closing at 5,063.80 USD/ounce on February 13, a 1.51% increase from February 6 [57][57]. Rare Earths - The supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide remains tight, supporting high prices in the short term [3][4].

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Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise collectively, with gains exceeding 1%, and nearly 4,000 stocks in the market increased in value [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4166.72 points, up 1.2%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.43% [2] Sector Performance - The rare earth, phosphorus chemical, shipping, and oil and gas sectors showed strong performance, with the non-ferrous metals sector experiencing a "limit-up" trend [1][4] - The phosphorus chemical sector surged over 8%, with stocks like Chengxing Co. and Chuanjin Nuo hitting the daily limit [10][12] - The steel sector also performed well, with multiple companies such as Baotou Steel and Linggang Steel reaching their daily limit [14] Notable Stocks - In the non-ferrous metals sector, over 20 stocks hit the daily limit, including Northern Rare Earth and Huaxi Nonferrous [4] - Key stocks in the oil and gas sector, such as Tongyuan Petroleum and Zhongyuan Shipping, recorded significant gains, with Tongyuan Petroleum rising over 18% [7][8] - The phosphorus chemical stocks saw notable increases, with Chuanjin Nuo and Qingshuiyuan both achieving gains of around 20% [10][11] Investment Insights - According to research from Zhongyin Securities, the market is expected to enter a "profit-driven growth phase" by 2026, with the strong cyclical nature of non-ferrous metals likely to be highlighted [5] - The U.S. has been working to reduce dependence on Chinese phosphorus resources, which may lead to increased demand and price appreciation for phosphorus-related stocks [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the integration of technology and industry in China, highlighting the advancements in traditional industries and the emergence of new industries, which collectively drive high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Group 1: Traditional Industry Upgrading - Traditional industries are not synonymous with outdated capacities; they are being enhanced through technological integration, allowing them to elevate their capabilities without losing their foundational strengths [2] - Shandong province's manufacturing sector has achieved significant growth, with 19 key industrial chains established, maintaining its position among the top manufacturing provinces in China [2] - Weihei Guangwei Composite Materials Co., a pioneer in carbon fiber development, has successfully replaced imported materials with domestically produced carbon fibers, supporting major national projects [2] Group 2: New Industry Development - New industries are experiencing rapid growth, driven by strategic planning and ecosystem cultivation, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, where Zhengzhou BYD has produced over 1 million vehicles, contributing 170 billion yuan in output [5] - Hubei province has made significant breakthroughs in technology, including the world's first 6G system prototype and the domestic quantum computer, showcasing its strong innovation capabilities [6] - Guizhou province has established itself as a leader in computing power, with a scale exceeding 160 EFLOPS, emphasizing the need for improved infrastructure to support data processing [6] Group 3: Regional Innovation Ecosystems - Various regions are building comprehensive innovation ecosystems, transitioning from isolated breakthroughs to systematic arrangements, with Guangdong leading in innovation capabilities for nine consecutive years [8] - In Zhejiang, new enterprises are emerging, with over 6,000 new high-tech companies expected by 2025, reflecting a commitment to enhancing technological innovation [9] - Xinjiang has established 160 national and ministerial-level innovation platforms, with a 3.2-fold increase in high-tech enterprises, indicating a robust foundation for innovation [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price is under pressure and weak in the short - term due to the significant inventory build - up during the holiday, with production and demand of rebar both decreasing (demand dropping more significantly), and the demand for hot - rolled coils also falling while production remains stable. In the medium - term, the steel price is expected to first fall and then rise [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the last week before the holiday, the spot market was inactive with most quotes stable. The fundamentals showed seasonal inventory build - up, demand gradually stagnated, futures funds were eager to leave the market, prices declined overall, and the basis widened [9]. - Specific price and inventory data: For example, the price of rebar HRB400E 20MM in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton with no change; the price of imported iron ore (PB powder 61.5%, Australia) at Qingdao Port decreased by 11 yuan/wet ton to 756 yuan/wet ton. Rebar total inventory increased by 129 tons to 716.04 tons, and hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 63 tons to 433.85 tons [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Rebar weekly production was 170.38 tons (a 4.08% decrease from the previous week and a 4.29% increase year - on - year), and the national hot - rolled coil weekly production was 309.81 tons (a 0.67% increase from the previous week and a 5.50% decrease year - on - year) [3][15]. - Rebar blast furnace production increased while electric furnace production decreased. Blast furnace weekly production was 167.78 tons (a 3.85% increase from the previous week and a 3.94% decrease year - on - year), and electric furnace weekly production was 2.6 tons (a 65.79% decrease from the previous week and an 88.31% decrease year - on - year) [16][18]. - The blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the electric furnace operating rate during the holiday dropped significantly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 80.13% (a 0.75% increase from the previous week and a 2.76% increase year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 9.85% (a 65.15% decrease from the previous week and an 81.57% decrease year - on - year) [19][23]. - The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils were slightly repaired. Rebar profit was + 80 yuan/ton (a 15 - yuan increase from the previous week and a 15 - yuan decrease year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 11 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan increase from the previous week and a 4 - yuan decrease year - on - year) [24][26]. Demand - The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils dropped significantly during the holiday. Rebar apparent consumption was 41.16 tons (a 59.61% decrease from the previous week and a 75.59% decrease year - on - year), the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 3.49 tons (a 51.40% decrease from the previous week and a 68.52% decrease year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 246.73 tons (a 16.70% decrease from the previous week and a 23.58% decrease year - on - year) [31]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased seasonally, with the increase in factory and social inventories expanding. Rebar factory inventory was 221.07 tons (a 35.14% increase from the previous week and a 7.73% decrease year - on - year), social inventory was 494.97 tons (a 16.95% increase from the previous week and an 18.90% decrease year - on - year), and total inventory was 716.04 tons (a 22.02% increase from the previous week and a 15.53% decrease year - on - year) [32][36]. - Hot - rolled coil inventory increased significantly, and social inventory was at a high level in the same period of history. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 93.38 tons (a 16.94% increase from the previous week and a 1.00% decrease year - on - year), social inventory was 340.47 tons (a 17.03% increase from the previous week and a 1.01% decrease year - on - year), and total inventory was 433.85 tons (a 17.01% increase from the previous week and a 0.17% decrease year - on - year) [37][40]. Downstream Industries - In the real estate industry, due to holiday factors, the transactions in the commercial housing and land markets decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. The weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 92.46% week - on - week and 94.56% year - on - year, and the transaction land area in 100 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 99.33% week - on - week and 99.32% year - on - year [41][43]. - In the automotive industry, in January 2026, automobile production increased slightly year - on - year, while sales decreased year - on - year. Automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. Among them, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year. In January, automobile exports were 681,000, a 44.9% increase year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle exports were 302,000, a 100% increase year - on - year [44][46]. 3.3 Spread Analysis - The basis of hot - rolled coils widened, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened slightly [48]. - The coil - to - rebar spread contracted slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore contracted slightly [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1][2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating bearish [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [6] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel industry is facing accumulated contradictions and weakening cost support, with steel prices under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory and weak demand [1] - Iron ore has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, high - level inventory for a long time, and faces downward pressure in the short - term [3] - Coking coal and coke futures and spot prices are running weakly, and the future trend depends on factors such as downstream production resumption and cost [6] - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of thermal coal are gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating, with a long - term pattern of loose supply [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market weakened yesterday, with the rebar futures main contract closing at 3027 yuan/ton, down 0.92%, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closing at 3195 yuan/ton, down 0.84%. The spot market was stable, with few quotes due to the lack of obvious construction starts in downstream areas [1] - **Supply - Demand Logic**: The steel industry is in a situation of stable supply and weak demand, with continuous accumulation of contradictions, a significant increase in inventory, and steel prices under pressure. The supply pressure of plates remains, and demand continues to weaken seasonally. The inventory of the five major steel products is still increasing, and steel prices will follow the cost in the short - term [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore price oscillated slightly downward yesterday. On February 24, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port decreased slightly compared with the previous working day. The trading volume in the spot market was cold, with a cumulative transaction of 40.5 tons on February 24, and the average daily transaction this month was 55.7 tons, a 40.62% decrease from the previous period [2] - **Supply - Demand Logic**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 23.5% this period, with Australia's shipment volume increasing by 36.7% and Brazil's by 9%. The arrival volume at 45 domestic ports was 2152 tons, a 11% decrease, and at 47 ports was 2321.1 tons, a 7% decrease. The arrival volume of imported iron ore is still at a historical high. Before the Spring Festival, the molten iron output increased slightly, and after the steel mills completed restocking, the speculative demand declined. The port inventory decreased, while the steel mill inventory increased significantly. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been at a high level for a long time [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating bearish, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4][5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the coke main contract closed at 1634.5 yuan/ton, down 38.5 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decrease; the coking coal main contract closed at 1101.5 yuan/ton, down 18.5 yuan/ton, a 1.65% decrease. Coke spot prices are stable to weak. During the Spring Festival, coke enterprises produced normally, but due to poor logistics and sufficient downstream inventory, the shipment was slow, and the factory inventory accumulated while the raw coal inventory decreased. The market still has a downward expectation after the festival. Coking coal supply decreased during the Spring Festival, and the speculative demand weakened. After the festival, the supply and demand increased month - on - month, and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines determines the supply - demand pattern [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In terms of spot and futures, the coal prices in the main production areas are oscillating. Recently, some coal mines have gradually resumed production and sales, and the supply has slowly increased. The terminal procurement is small, and the overall demand has not been significantly boosted. At the port, the market continues to be strong, with low inventory. The import market is stable to strong, and the future import volume is expected to decrease [7] - **Supply - Demand Logic**: After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply pattern is loose [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.2%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.43% [1] - Cyclical stocks, including steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and construction, showed strong performance [1] Sector Highlights - The following ETFs saw significant gains: - Rare Earth ETF by 6.64% - Rare Metals ETF by 6.50% - Steel ETF by 5.76% - Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF by 5.49% - Non-Ferrous ETF by 4.91% - Mining ETF by 4.80% - Other related ETFs also reported increases ranging from 4.13% to 4.61% [1] - The semiconductor sector also performed well, with the following ETFs rising: - Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF by 4.03% - Semiconductor Equipment ETF by 3.69% - Sino-Korean Semiconductor ETF by 3.69% [1] Weak Performers - The artificial intelligence sector experienced declines, with several ETFs dropping over 1%, including: - Sci-Tech AI ETF by Bosera - Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF - Online Consumption ETF by ICBC - Media ETF by Huaxia - Online Consumption ETF by Southern [1] - Other ETFs related to innovation and big data also reported declines [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic molybdenum market remains stable, primarily due to the recent end of the Spring Festival holiday, with many traders not fully resuming normal trading activities [6][8] - In the molybdenum concentrate market, prices are stable around 4,250 yuan per ton due to limited downstream demand and suppliers' strong price support awareness, resulting in limited actual transaction volumes [2][7] - The international molybdenum price is higher than the domestic price, which suppresses the increase in imports of molybdenum products in China and supports the maintenance of prices by stockholders [2][7] Group 2: Molybdenum and Steel Pricing - Molybdenum iron prices are under pressure, with quotations around 276,000 yuan per ton, influenced by average steel procurement performance and the difficulty in reducing molybdenum concentrate prices [3][7] - The steel production data from the China Iron and Steel Association indicates that in early February 2026, key steel enterprises produced 17.5 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.75 million tons, reflecting a 9.6% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period [8] - Regional analysis shows that steel production decreased in several areas, including Northeast China (35,000 tons), North China (66,000 tons), East China (49,000 tons), Southwest China (9,000 tons), and Central South China (38,000 tons), while Northwest China saw an increase of 12,000 tons [8]

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Group 1 - The black metal market continues to show signs of recovery, with the steel sector experiencing a significant increase on February 25, as the Steel ETF (515210) rose nearly 6% [1] - According to Guotai Junan, steel prices are witnessing a genuine upward trend, with both rebar futures and spot prices strengthening simultaneously, and iron ore and coking coal varieties also performing well, leading to a sustained increase in market sentiment [1] - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the price of coking coal (main coking coal) increased by 0.5% in mid-January 2026 compared to the previous period, suggesting that demand may remain strong even in the off-season [1] Group 2 - The Steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Industry Index (930606), which selects securities from listed companies in the steel industry, including both ordinary and special steel sectors, to reflect the overall performance of China's steel industry-related listed companies [1]