Macro Economic Outlook - The economic momentum in China is weakening, with November economic indicators falling below market expectations, indicating a further decline in economic activity [2] - Retail sales growth dropped to a post-pandemic low, significantly affected by high base effects and demand exhaustion from old-for-new subsidies, particularly in durable goods like home appliances, furniture, and automobiles [2] - Fixed asset investment growth has sharply declined, with real estate investment hitting a historical low, and both manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth continuing to slow [2] - A comprehensive decline in the real estate market, durable goods consumption, and new household loans suggests weakening terminal demand, forecasting a sluggish economic growth momentum into Q1 2026 [2] - GDP growth is expected to fall from 5% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, potentially triggering a new round of policy easing, including a 50 basis point RRR cut and a 10 basis point LPR cut in Q1 2026 [2] Global Market Performance - Major global stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,629, down 1.34% for the day but up 27.76% year-to-date [2] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also experienced slight declines of 0.16% and 0.59% respectively, while the DAX and CAC indices saw minor gains [2] - The performance of the Chinese stock market was characterized by declines in healthcare, consumer discretionary, and information technology sectors, while consumer staples, utilities, and financials outperformed [4] Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is projected to maintain four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive allocations, and industry consolidation and mergers [5] - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 26% year-on-year to reach $975 billion in 2026, with AI-related segments leading the growth, particularly logic chips and memory chips [5] - Notable stock performances include Zhongji Xuchuang with a year-to-date increase of 407%, Shengyi Technology at 172%, and Northern Huachuang at 64.9% [5]

2025年11月份，70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降、同比降幅扩大。 一、一二三线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降 11月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。其中，上海上 涨0.1%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.5%、0.5%和0.9%。二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比分 别下降0.3%和0.4%，降幅均收窄0.1个百分点。 11月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.1%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。其中，北京、上 海、广州和深圳分别下降1.3%、0.8%、1.2%和1.0%。二线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.6%，降幅 与上月相同。三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.6%，降幅收窄0.1个百分点。 二、一二三线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅扩大 11月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降1.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点。其中，上海上 涨5.1%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降2.1%、4.3%和3.7%。二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比分 别下降2.2%和3.5%，降幅分别扩大0.2个和0.1个百分点。 11月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格同 ...

昨日，在国新办举行的新闻发布会上，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付 凌晖表示，11月份国民经济稳中有进。 "11月份我国国民经济运行呈现出生产端稳健、需求端分化的态势。"海通期货研究所宏观策略组研究员 纪丫告诉期货日报记者，11月，规上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，其中装备制造业和高技术制造业增速 显著更快，成为重要驱动力，需求侧则表现不一：市场消费维持一定韧性，社会消费品零售总额同比增 长1.3%，服务消费和线上零售增长较快，但增速仍显温和；固定资产投资维持承压态势，11月同比下 降11.5%，主要受房地产市场深度调整的拖累，房地产投资同比下跌30%。 "尽管社会消费品零售总额增速受基数影响有所波动，但升级类商品消费保持活跃，服务零售额持续较 快增长，反映消费结构优化和内需潜力释放，新质生产力培育步伐加快。"建信期货宏观研究员冯泽仁 说。 ...

Group 1: National Policies and Economic Measures - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 1.5 billion yuan in special long-term bonds in 2024 to support consumer subsidies for vehicle trade-ins and related appliances, with an additional 3 billion yuan expected in 2025 [2] - The "national subsidy" policy has positively impacted domestic consumption over the past two years, with consumer goods trade-ins generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales from January to November, benefiting over 360 million people [2] - The coverage of the "national subsidy" policy is expected to continue expanding, particularly for durable consumer goods like refrigerators and televisions [2] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - In November, the sales prices of new residential properties in major cities showed a month-on-month decline, with first-tier cities down 0.4% and second and third-tier cities down 0.3% and 0.4% respectively [4] - The introduction of "home purchase interest subsidies" in several cities has led to a short-term increase in new home transactions by over 15% [4] - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with second-hand homes showing stronger sales performance compared to new homes due to price reductions by individual landlords [4][5] Group 3: Industrial Growth and Economic Indicators - In November, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44% [6] - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as 3D printing and industrial robotics, saw significant growth, with production increasing by 100.5% and 20.6% respectively [6] - The overall industrial growth rate is being constrained by weak demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, leading to a cautious economic recovery [6] Group 4: Corporate Debt and Financial Challenges - Vanke's attempt to extend the maturity of a 2 billion yuan bond faced obstacles, as none of the proposed extension plans received the required 90% approval from bondholders [7][8] - The company is at risk of default if an agreement is not reached within the grace period following the bond's maturity [7] - Vanke's financial struggles are compounded by reduced support from state-owned shareholders, indicating a challenging path ahead for the company [8] Group 5: Technology and Market Developments - iRobot has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, facing significant financial difficulties with liabilities exceeding 500 million dollars and cash reserves of only 24.8 million dollars [9][10] - The company, once a leader in the robotic vacuum market, has struggled to keep up with competitors offering better technology at lower prices [10] - Samsung is in discussions with AMD regarding potential collaboration on 2nm chip manufacturing, aiming to enhance its position in the high-end semiconductor market [11]

Group 1 - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales amounted to 39,444 billion yuan, growing by 2.5% [1] - From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 456,067 billion yuan, an increase of 4.0%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales were 411,637 billion yuan, growing by 4.6% [1] - The recent decline in the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales is attributed to a high base from the previous year and the early release of some consumer demand due to ongoing policies promoting the replacement of old goods [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government has allocated 500 billion yuan in long-term special bonds for "two new" initiatives in 2025, with 200 billion yuan for large-scale equipment updates and 300 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to November, the replacement of consumer goods generated over 25,000 billion yuan in sales, benefiting over 360 million people and playing a significant role in boosting consumption [1] Group 3 - The expansion of consumption is a long-term strategy that requires joint efforts from both supply and demand sides, particularly focusing on the 400 million middle-income group with a demand for upgraded consumption [2] - There is a need to enhance the quality and innovation of service supply, as the middle and high-income groups are increasingly shifting towards service consumption [2] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of implementing special actions to boost consumption and developing plans to increase income for urban and rural residents [2] Group 4 - The real estate market has been adjusting, and the central economic work conference proposed high-quality urban renewal, focusing on renovation rather than large-scale demolition, which can create more jobs and establish a sustainable investment model [2] - Creating more service industry jobs is a long-term strategy, as the productive service industry is knowledge and talent-intensive, requiring further development [3] - To make domestic demand the main driver of economic growth, it is essential to address the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, promoting internal growth through reforms [3]

责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 日本财务大臣片山皋月透露，日本政府将修订一项行政条例，以收紧外国人购房报告的相关规定。片山 皋月表示，无论购房目的是投资还是自住，外国人在日本购买房产都需要进行报告。注：目前，外国人 在将房产用于投资目的时，需要报告房产的位置和价格。如果修订后的行政条例获得公众意见的批准， 将于 4 月生效。大量外国人在日本拥有房产，但并未在当地居住。 片山皋月还表示，日本央行和政府 在经济评估方面不存在分歧。 日本财务大臣片山皋月透露，日本政府将修订一项行政条例，以收紧外国人购房报告的相关规定。片山 皋月表示，无论购房目的是投资还是自住，外国人在日本购买房产都需要进行报告。注：目前，外国人 在将房产用于投资目的时，需要报告房产的位置和价格。如果修订后的行政条例获得公众意见的批准， 将于 4 月生效。大量外国人在日本拥有房产，但并未在当地居住。 片山皋月还表示，日本央行和政府 在经济评估方面不存在分歧。 ...

当地时间12月15日，欧洲多国及欧盟机构领导人联合声明，宣布组建"多国部队"支持乌克兰，将协助乌 重建武装、保障领空与海上安全，甚至在乌境内开展行动，明确乌军队规模目标为80万，并计划建立美 国主导的停火监督机制。同日，美国总统特朗普称与欧洲领导人、北约及普京深入磋商，宣称俄乌和平 协议"只差一步"，此前美乌柏林会谈取得进展，领土划分与扎波罗热核电站管控仍是核心分歧。 2. 纳斯达克申请5X23小时交易 纳斯达克计划于周一向美国SEC提交申请，将股票及ETP产品交易时间从每周5天16小时延长至23小 时。新模式分日间与夜盘时段，美东时间凌晨4点至晚8点为日间时段（保留常规交易钟点），晚9点至 次日凌晨4点为夜盘时段，交易周自周日晚9点至周五晚8点结束。此举旨在适配全球跨时区投资者需 求，应对行业竞争，目前仍待监管批准。 12月15日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆在例行记者会上披露，12日菲律宾有组织、有预谋纠集大量船只赴仙宾 礁海域挑衅，冲闯仙宾礁潟湖。菲方所谓"渔船"无视中方劝阻警告滞留潟湖，多次恶意转向，人员甚至 持刀威胁中方维权海警，行径严重侵犯中方主权。中方已采取合理合法、专业克制的处置措施，维护领 土主权与海 ...

Macro: Supply and Demand Gap Widening - In November, supply growth slightly decreased year-on-year, with industrial added value and service production indices at 4.8% and 4.2% respectively, compared to 4.9% and 4.2% in October [5] - The demand structure showed marginal improvement in export delivery value, while domestic demand growth declined, primarily driven by the decrease in industrial added value growth [5] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with construction installation projects being the main factor for the overall investment decline [7] Consumer Sector: Consumption Growth Slows - In November, total retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.6 percentage points from October, the lowest monthly growth rate in 2023 [6] - The decline in consumption was attributed to weakened support from trade-in programs and high base effects from the previous year, particularly in categories like home appliances (-19.4%) and automotive (-8.3%) [6] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival caused a shift in consumption patterns, pulling forward sales from November, which contributed to the slowdown in retail sales growth [6] Investment: Fixed Asset Investment Decline - The cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment expanded to 2.6% from January to November, with construction installation projects being the primary contributor [7] - The November fixed asset investment saw a seasonally adjusted month-on-month decline of 1.03%, a slight narrowing from October's 1.51% [7] - The government is expected to push for investment stabilization, with additional funding support anticipated to improve investment data by 2026 [7] Real Estate: Continued Weakness - The real estate market remains weak, with new housing sales area declining by 17.3% year-on-year in November, a slight improvement from October's 18.8% decline [10] - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 30.3% in November, indicating a cautious approach from developers amid weak market demand [10] - The overall investment environment remains pressured, with the government emphasizing the need for stabilization measures [10] Financial Sector: Credit Demand Weakness - In November, new social financing increased by 2.5 trillion yuan, but new RMB loans decreased by 390 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand [25][26] - The decline in credit demand is attributed to slow recovery in the real economy and weakened demand in the real estate sector [26] - The government bonds and corporate bonds have been the main contributors to social financing, indicating a reliance on these instruments for economic support [26] Commodity Sector: Demand Needs Boost - In November, domestic crude oil production was 4.3 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while net imports were 12.43 million barrels per day, up 4.8% [15] - The steel sector faced a decline in production, with crude steel output down 10.9% year-on-year in November, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels [17] - The copper market showed a year-on-year increase in production by 9.7% in November, but demand remained subdued due to seasonal factors [19]

1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称， 12 月 15 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1309 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 1309 亿元，中标量 1309 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 1223 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 86 亿元 。 2. 资金面 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 银行间市场周一流动性依旧宽松，存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率（ DR001 ）略降；匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报价仍在 1.25% 不过供给明显收 敛；非银机构质押信用债融入隔夜资金报价暂在 1.45% 一线。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.66% 。 // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.66% 附近，较上日变化不大。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 （*数据来源：Wind- ...

近年来，上市公司分红意愿显著提升，A股市场分红生态持续优化，呈现出分红总额、参与分红公司数 量占比以及年内多次分红公司数量逐年递增的趋势。 按照除权除息日统计（下同），截至12月15日，今年以来A股上市公司现金分红总额达到2.56万亿元， 已超过2024年全年，创出历史新高。 头部公司加大回报力度 从具体公司来看，传统"分红大户"今年均加大现金回报力度。以2025年现金分红超过百亿元的36家公司 来看，超八成年内现金分红总额超过去年。 其中，中远海控（601919）现金分红总额增幅超过100%，紫金矿业（601899）、中国人保（601319） 等分红总额较去年增幅均超过50%。现金分红超千亿元的4家公司中，建设银行（601939）、中国银行 （601988）的分红总额较去年增幅均超过45%。 招商蛇口（001979）表示，公司2026年至2028年度现金分红占当年归属于上市公司股东净利润的比例均 不低于40%。 首钢股份（000959）表示，公司全年度以现金方式分配的利润原则上不低于当年实现归属于上市公司股 东净利润的30%。 明泰铝业（601677）表示，2026年至2028年每年以现金方式分配的利润不少 ...