Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by China to strengthen rare earth export controls has caused significant concern in the U.S., revealing America's vulnerability in the global supply chain for these critical materials [1][3][10] Group 1: U.S. Response and Concerns - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has publicly criticized China, claiming it is using rare earths as a weapon against the world, indicating a sense of panic within the U.S. [1][3] - The U.S. has been attempting to launch its own rare earth projects, but it will take five to ten years to establish a complete supply chain, highlighting the urgency of the situation [1][3] - The U.S. has historically engaged in trade wars and technology restrictions against China, which has backfired and accelerated China's advancements in key sectors [3][10] Group 2: China's Position and Policy Changes - China's new policy requires licenses for products containing over 0.1% of Chinese rare earth technology, reflecting a shift towards regulatory compliance rather than retaliation [5][8] - The policy is seen as a corrective measure to address long-standing imbalances in resource flow and the weaponization of technology by the U.S. [5][8] - China has implemented measures to ensure continued supply, including green channels and exemptions for civilian use, demonstrating restraint in its approach [6][8] Group 3: Global Implications and Future Outlook - The situation underscores a shift in global dynamics, where the era of unilateral dependence on the U.S. is ending, and countries are establishing their own regulatory frameworks [11][13] - The control of rare earths is crucial for future manufacturing capabilities, and countries like the EU and Japan are closely observing the developments [10][11] - The narrative that the U.S. is the sole arbiter of global trade rules is being challenged, as both the U.S. and China navigate their respective policies [11][13]

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley October 17, 2025 09:33 AM GMT 中国思考 | Asia Pacific 稀土博弈：战略还是战术？ 中国希冀稀土管控来反制美国的科技壁垒。但长臂管辖机制 尚属初期，执行或需反复磨炼。战术上，有中美经过磋商局 面缓释的可能。但战略上，双方在科技领域的竞争性对抗格 局将持续深化。 中国近期收紧了稀土管控：自12月1日起，境外生产的任何含有中国原产稀土且价 值比例达到0.1%及以上的，必须获得出口许可证。另外，对于最终用途为研发、 生产14纳米及以下逻辑芯片的出口申请，需逐案审批。对此，美国已威胁在11月1 日前加大对华关税和科技反制。中方选择在APEC领导人会晤前夕出台该举措，引 发了诸多疑问：此举背后有何战略考量？稀土长臂管辖效力如何？中美贸易摩擦 未来走向？我们在此逐一解答。 问题一：为何现在升级稀土管控？ 我们认为此举将进一步完善中国的出口管制框架⋯⋯事实上，考虑到美国对华的 贸易冲突和技术封锁升级，以及全球稀土供应链"去中国化"进展缓慢，中国政 府自今 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is currently experiencing a high-level fluctuation, awaiting demand recovery and liquidity easing to trigger a main upward trend in prices [1][3][13] - The expectation of a soft landing for the US economy, along with the first interest rate cut, has stabilized overseas demand, but the main upward wave in non-ferrous metal prices has not yet started [1][3] Key Points and Arguments Market Outlook - The performance expectations for various non-ferrous sub-sectors in 2026 are generally optimistic, with an expected increase of approximately 20% or more [1][4] - The anticipated main upward wave is expected around the end of Q1 2026, driven by interest rate cuts, the end of the US balance sheet reduction, and overseas reconstruction demand [1][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions have normalized, reducing their impact on market sentiment, but the supply-side constraints are stronger than demand influences [1][6] - It is expected that most metals will remain in a supply-demand imbalance in 2026, with supply constraints being more definitive [1][6] Specific Metal Insights - **Gold**: Short-term trading is overheated, with valuations stretched. A potential adjustment is expected after geopolitical events cool down, but long-term prospects remain positive due to economic recovery and inflation [1][7] - **Copper**: Short-term demand is suppressed by high prices, but mining and smelting companies may reduce production, leading to a supply-demand imbalance from Q4 2025 through 2026 [1][8][9] - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum sector is recommended as a top investment choice due to its strong dividend attributes and resilience in profits, with a significant upside potential if prices rise [1][10][11] Small Metals Perspective - **Cobalt**: Inventory is decreasing, indicating potential for price increases [2][12] - **Lithium**: Currently under pressure but nearing a bottom in supply-demand dynamics, strategic positioning is advised [2][12] - **Tungsten**: Long-term outlook is positive due to supply shortages and geopolitical factors [2][12] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment for the non-ferrous metals industry remains optimistic, with recommendations to actively monitor and allocate resources to various metal sectors to capitalize on future growth opportunities [1][14] - The copper market is expected to see a price increase and earnings per share (EPS) growth, with mainstream companies' valuations returning to reasonable levels [1][9][14]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities believes that the bull market logic remains intact despite the recent market consolidation, driven by capital market reforms and structural prosperity [1] Market Conditions - Following a peak in trading activity in the computing power sector in early September, the market has entered a consolidation phase characterized by high capital rotation, index stagnation, and reduced trading volume [1] - The current market conditions are attributed to the failure to meet the criteria for ending the bull market consolidation, ongoing uncertainties in US-China relations, and reduced volatility ahead of key meetings [1] Investment Strategy - The company suggests a shift in investment style, with short-term focus on "countermeasures + risk aversion" and a year-end focus on dividend and technology styles [1] - Key sectors to watch include dividends, non-ferrous metals (rare earths, precious metals), large financials (banks, insurance), steel, agriculture, AI, batteries, chips, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1]

Group 1 - The report concludes that the adjustment space for the index is limited, maintaining a judgment of sideways fluctuations and continued strength. The recent market pullback is attributed to strong short-term profit-taking motivation and a cautious stance amid uncertainties between China and the US. However, the report believes that the factors driving profit-taking are temporary, and the attractiveness of the equity market and long-term investor confidence remain unchanged. It is anticipated that the situation between China and the US will stabilize, with limited adverse effects on the market [3][12]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes continued high attention to technology as the main theme for investment opportunities. It suggests focusing on low-positioned self-controlled sectors (such as software), technology related to the 14th Five-Year Plan (including quantum technology, deep-sea economy, and brain-computer interfaces), and innovative pharmaceuticals. The report advises avoiding equipment-related sectors and previously high-performing technology companies, which have seen significant pullbacks recently. This ongoing correction is expected to enhance the attractiveness of core companies within these sectors, gradually attracting funds for reallocation [4][13]. Group 3 - In non-technology sectors, the report expresses a positive outlook on strategic metals, ranking them as follows: gold > rare earths and other minor metals > copper. For gold, the dual benefits of deteriorating fiat currency credit and safe-haven demand are expected to continue driving prices, despite short-term pullback risks. The strategic value of rare earths is anticipated to rise due to upgraded export controls on items and technologies. In the case of copper, demand is expected to increase in the medium term due to global grid upgrades, data center expansions, and the proliferation of electric vehicles, while ongoing disruptions in upstream mining will significantly exacerbate supply shortages, leading to a potential rise in copper prices [5][14].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations, with the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) showing a high of over 2% before closing down 1.69% on October 17, 2023, indicating volatility in the sector [1]. Market Performance - The Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) had a total trading volume of 57.74 million yuan and a current scale of 606 million yuan as of October 16, 2023, with an average daily trading volume of 12.2 million yuan in October [1]. - Among the top-performing stocks, silver nonferrous leader Baiyin Nonferrous hit the daily limit, while lithium leaders Shengxin Lithium and Zhongfu Industrial both rose over 2% [3]. Key Stocks and Trends - The top ten stocks in the ETF's index include five gold leaders, with Western Gold rising over 3% and Zhongjin Gold increasing over 2% [3]. - Conversely, stocks like Bowei Alloy and Chuangjiang New Materials saw declines exceeding 6%, negatively impacting the index [3]. Gold Price Influences - International gold prices are approaching 4,400 USD/ounce, driven by three main factors: 1. The historical performance of gold during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycles, with an average increase of 6% within 60 days of such announcements [4]. 2. Increased demand for gold due to heightened risk aversion from the U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2023 [5]. 3. Ongoing de-dollarization trends and credit risks associated with U.S. debt, leading to increased gold purchases by central banks, with global official gold reserves reaching a record high of 36,274 tons by June 2023 [5]. Future Gold Price Predictions - Some institutions, including Bank of America, predict that gold prices could reach 6,000 USD in the spring of 2024, citing low current allocations of gold in investment portfolios [6]. - The World Gold Council indicates that both retail and central bank gold holdings remain significantly below historical highs, suggesting potential for future growth [6]. Sector Opportunities - The rare earth sector is expected to perform well, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shenghe Resources projecting substantial profit increases in their upcoming quarterly reports [7]. - In the lithium sector, advancements in solid-state lithium battery technology are anticipated to boost demand, with leading companies maintaining a high self-sufficiency rate in lithium production [7]. - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, particularly from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which may tighten global copper supply and drive prices higher [7]. Investment Strategy - The Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) offers a diversified exposure to various nonferrous metals, including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, which can mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors [9].

以下文章来源于张湧说财经 ，作者Peter Zhang 前瞻的视角、通俗的语言、深刻的洞见、大众的立场 作者： Peter Zhang 来源： 张湧说财经 -------------------------------- 稀土对现代科技的重要性，可能要比大部分人想象的更大； 而中国对稀土产业链的控制力，也要比大部分人想象得更加强大。 张湧说财经 . 这就是为什么，稀土这个事，能引起如此广泛关注的核心逻辑链条。 01 稀土重要，主要是因为磁铁很重要。 稀土并不是制作磁铁的材料，而是可以改变磁铁性能的一种" 添加剂 "。 普通的磁铁存在遇热软化、容易消磁、磁力弱等问题，添加了稀土之后，这些弱点就能得到克服。 也就是我们常说的"稀土永磁"。 经过稀土加强之后的磁铁，才能应用到电动汽车、风能发电、手机、耳机等上面； 尤其是一些传感器离不开稀土，传感器是用于感知声、光、温度等信号的器件，在机器人领域不可 或缺； 制造芯片的光刻机也需要精密的磁力控制； 还有军事领域，比如航空发动机、火箭推进器、军用飞机、声纳装置…… 上面这些领域的共同点就是，都是高科技领域，并且都离不开稀土"加持"之后的磁铁。 一般的金属，比如金银铜， ...

Group 1 - The core issue for the U.S. is its dependency on Chinese rare earth elements, which are critical for military and high-tech industries, leading to potential systemic paralysis without them [1][7][9] - The U.S. has a significant challenge in developing its own rare earth supply chain, with estimates suggesting it would take at least 8 years and $150 billion to achieve self-sufficiency [9][16] - China's dominance in rare earth production is underscored by its control over 70% of global patents and over 90% of refining capacity, making it nearly impossible for the U.S. to replace this supply [7][12][22] Group 2 - The technological gap in rare earth refining processes in the U.S. is substantial, with only a handful of companies capable of handling the complex extraction and refinement needed for military-grade materials [10][11] - The U.S. has previously invested heavily in its rare earth industry, but past efforts have failed, highlighting the difficulties in establishing a competitive domestic supply chain [9][10] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the U.S. recognizing that it cannot afford to ignore China's strategic control over rare earth elements, which has implications for its military capabilities and technological advancements [1][22][26] Group 3 - The ongoing decoupling between the U.S. and China is evident, with a significant decline in U.S. imports from China, indicating a broader trend of supply chain reorganization [23][24] - The competition in technology and industrial capabilities is intensifying, with projections suggesting that by 2030, China will significantly outpace the U.S. in various high-tech sectors [20][26] - The U.S. is facing a critical juncture where it must either adapt to the new reality of its reliance on China or risk falling further behind in technological advancements and industrial capacity [22][26]

如今，稀土在全球工业体系中的地位愈发重要，甚至远超当年石油的影响。石油虽可通过增加开采来补充产能，但稀土情况不同。全球稀土资源虽有分布， 可其开采、提炼等技术含量极高。有该国科学家称，没有五到十年、千亿美元的投入，根本无法攻克相关技术难题。稀土几乎涉及该国全部工业领域，而华 尔街的繁荣也依赖这些工业的支撑。一旦相关工业停滞，市场将失去重要支撑，该国经济衰退风险加剧，国债利息偿还也将面临巨大压力。 近日，市场有观点将当下稀土相关局势与70年代石油危机对某国经济的影响进行对比，认为此次稀土问题带来的冲击可能更为严重。回顾70年代，因第四次 海湾战争）与伊朗局势动荡，石油价格在近十年内从每桶2.7美元飙升至40美元，涨幅近17倍。受此影响，当时某国股市遭受重创，道琼斯指数从1973年初 的1000点一路跌至1974年底的约500点，跌幅接近一半。同时，黄金、银价格涨幅超7倍，铝价上涨1.6倍，铜价上涨68％，大豆也上涨51％。由于石油是西 方世界工业体系的关键要素，该国陷入严重滞胀困境。 基于此，有分析人士认为，在巨大的利益损失面前，该国高层必然会重新考虑策略，回到谈判桌前。 此时，相关方应保持沉默，无论对方有何言 ...

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.41% to $10,624.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% to 84,400 yuan per ton [1][12] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 0.55 thousand tons to 17.75 thousand tons due to weak downstream consumption and replenishment of imported sources [1][12] - The operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises rose to 62.5%, up 19.06% week-on-week, but down 16.39% year-on-year, indicating a recovery post-holiday but still below pre-holiday levels [1][12] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.82% to $2,796.00 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.33% to 20,900 yuan per ton [2][13] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 2.3 thousand tons, indicating a slight recovery in demand [2][13] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises remained stable at 62.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% [2][13] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 7.65% to $4,344.30 per ounce, influenced by U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical risks [3][14] - SPDR gold holdings increased by 17.46 tons to 1,034.62 tons, reflecting increased demand amid market uncertainties [3][14] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, impacting the economy and the dollar's position [3][14] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 9.01% to 507,100 yuan per ton, with expectations of price recovery due to overseas replenishment [4][32] - The strategic importance of rare earths has increased due to regulatory changes, with a positive outlook for major companies in the sector [4][32] - The implementation of new regulations is expected to gradually show positive effects on supply and pricing [4][32] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 4.08%, but demand is expected to recover due to the stabilization of photovoltaic glass production [4][33] - The implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant cables may provide a demand boost for antimony [4][33] - Global antimony prices are expected to trend upward due to resource scarcity and reduced supply from major mines [4][33] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.63% to 73,100 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.43% to 78,200 yuan per ton [5][60] - Total lithium carbonate production increased to 21,100 tons, reflecting a slight recovery in supply [5][60] - Strong demand from the energy storage sector is expected to support lithium prices despite recent supply increases [5][60] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price increased by 9% to 381,000 yuan per ton, driven by tight supply conditions [5][61] - The market is characterized by a "price without market" phenomenon, with strong upward pressure on prices due to raw material shortages [5][61] - Future price increases are anticipated as supply constraints from Congo continue to affect the market [5][61] Group 8: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 0.1% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price decreased by 0.6% to 121,200 yuan per ton [5][62] - Concerns over the stability of nickel ore supply due to regulatory changes in Indonesia are providing short-term support for prices [5][62] - The market is expected to remain volatile due to the interplay between supply disruptions and weak fundamentals [5][62]