Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategies, and commodity sectors. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics. The overall sentiment varies across different markets, with some expected to be bullish, some bearish, and others in a state of oscillation. For example, the bond market is expected to go bullish, while the iron ore market is expected to remain weak [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May NFIB small business confidence index was 98.8, higher than expected. Gold prices oscillated and closed down. If the tariff issue eases, gold may continue to fall; if it worsens, the upside is limited. Short - term gold is expected to be weak with a risk of correction [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - The central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. The market believes the probability of a successful Sino - US trade negotiation is low. The bond market is expected to go bullish in July. There are two possible paths for the bullish trend, and the first path is more likely. It is recommended to take a bullish approach [16][17][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The leaders of China and South Korea had a phone call, emphasizing strengthening cooperation. The A - share market tumbled on June 10th, and the market's expectation for the Sino - US talks has deteriorated. Due to high valuation levels, the market will be more volatile. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan and the US are arranging a meeting between their leaders. Trump defined the Los Angeles riots as a "foreign invasion", which may intensify the situation in the short - term. The World Bank lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. The US dollar index is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24][26][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and Mexico are close to an agreement on steel tariffs. The Sino - US trade negotiation is reported to be going well. TSMC's May revenue increased year - on - year. The market is optimistic about the negotiation results, but there is still a risk of disappointment. It is not recommended to chase the high [29][30][32]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Abiove maintained Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts but lowered the price forecast. The market is optimistic about the Sino - US talks. Domestic demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the Sino - US talks and the USDA monthly report, and expect the futures price to oscillate [33][34][35]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in the northern ports was stable on June 10th. The coal price is temporarily stable due to downstream replenishment and upstream supply control, but it may decline again in summer. The growth rate of thermal power consumption has not increased significantly in June, and the risk of new energy substitution should be watched [36]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Zhengzhou will suspend the subsidy application for consumer goods trade - in of home appliances. The iron ore price is expected to remain weak due to weak sentiment in the industrial products market and seasonal pressure, but the decline may be gentle [37][39][41]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian officials called for an increase in the minimum sugar price. India is expected to have sugar production surpluses for at least two consecutive years. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of June decreased year - on - year. The international sugar market supply is increasing, and the domestic market may be affected by imports. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar futures will oscillate weakly [42][43][44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Heavy rain in East China may suppress the demand for building materials. The Sino - US trade negotiation is unclear, and the steel price is oscillating. The demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies in the spot market [45][46][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Aonong Biological's hog sales in May increased year - on - year, while New Hope's executives plan to reduce their shareholdings. The hog market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the short - term futures price may be weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and look for short - selling opportunities on significant rallies [48][49][50]. 2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is weak. Although the futures price rebounded, the spot price is still weak. The supply is shrinking, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is recommended to treat the current situation as a rebound and wait and watch [51]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Longi Green Energy's 3GW BC photovoltaic module project was announced. There are some market rumors about polysilicon production, but the actual situation is different. The supply in June is expected to increase, and the market is currently in a stalemate. It is recommended to take a short - term short and long - term long approach [52][53][54]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Silicon Industry refuted the rumor of equity transfer. Some silicon plants in Sichuan are resuming production, while those in Yunnan are still waiting. The demand is weak, and the price is close to the cash cost line. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply changes [55][56]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Zambia invites automobile manufacturers to set up factories in copper - mining areas. Rio Tinto reaffirmed its copper production guidance for 2025. The LME copper inventory is changing. The short - term macro - factors have a neutral impact on copper prices, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions. It is recommended to wait and watch [57][59][60]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount on June 9th. The supply of lead has decreased marginally, while the demand is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate widely in June, and it is recommended to wait and watch in the short - term and look for long - term low - buying opportunities [62][63]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a discount on June 9th. The zinc market is expected to show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in June. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the accumulation of put options. The mid - term strategy is to do an internal - external positive arbitrage [64][65]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL announced the mass production of 587Ah cells. Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China in May were lower than expected. The market may be in a tight balance or slight de - stocking in June. It is recommended to short on rallies [66][67]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA lowered the forecast for US crude oil production in 2026. The US API crude oil inventory decreased slightly. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price closed at 67.67 yuan/ton on June 10th, slightly down. The CEA price is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the market is expected to be oversupplied in 2025. It is recommended to expect a weak oscillation [71][72]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis is strong, and the market negotiation is okay. The demand is in a seasonal off - season, while the supply is increasing. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [73][74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Sinopec raised the pure benzene listing price. The styrene price rebounded, mainly driven by cost and capital. The pure benzene supply may decrease marginally in July. It is recommended to consider the potential of pure benzene as a chemical allocation [75][76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable on June 10th. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract of caustic soda may be limited in its downward space due to the large discount [78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market increased slightly. The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the market is expected to oscillate [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export and domestic prices are mostly stable. The industry has high supply pressure, but the processing fee is close to the historical low. Some large factories plan to reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the bottle chip processing fee on dips [84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market in China was slightly stronger. The futures price oscillated, and the downstream demand was weak. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's soda ash production is normal. The soda ash market is weak and stable, with high supply and low demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [86][87][88]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei was stable on June 10th. The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot market was weak. With the coming of summer and the rainy season, the demand will decline seasonally, and the price may continue to fall. The short - term futures price may be affected by market sentiment [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has high uncertainty. Gold is expected to continue high - level volatile adjustments, and silver may maintain a relatively strong trend [3][5]. - LME copper has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short - term [7][10]. - Alumina supply is increasing, and prices are expected to move closer to the cash cost of high - cost production capacity and then fluctuate [12][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to when the seasonal inflection point of consumption arrives [20][21]. - Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories continue to accumulate [23][24]. - Lead prices will mainly fluctuate in a range due to weak supply and demand [26][28]. - Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate due to the pattern of weak supply and demand [30][33]. - Stainless steel prices are under pressure from supply, and the market is expected to be weak, but the raw material end provides cost support [34][37]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand are basically balanced in June, but the industry will continue to have low or negative profits, and 7500 yuan/ton may be the resistance level for the rebound [40][41]. - Short - term polysilicon prices remain weak, and short positions in the PS2507 contract can be held [44][46]. - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [48][49]. - Tin prices are driven by macro - sentiment in the short - term, and the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has been significantly alleviated [52][53]. 3. Summary by Directory Pre - market Observation of Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Market Review - Precious metals: London gold rose 0.43% to 3325.215 dollars/ounce, London silver rose 2.16% to 36.743 dollars/ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.18% to 776.66 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.07% to 9015 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Dollar index: It fell 0.25% to 98.94 [3]. - 10 - year US Treasury yield: It slightly fell to 4.488% [3]. - RMB exchange rate: It rose 0.23% to 7.1785 [3]. Important Information - Tariff trends: The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London [3]. - US macro: The 1 - year inflation expectation in May was 3.2%, and the wholesale sales monthly rate in April was 0.1% [3]. - Fed watch: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in July is 14.5% [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt the strategy of trying long positions on dips [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5] Copper Market Review - Futures: LME copper rose 1.01% to 9768.5 dollars [7]. - Spot: LME inventory decreased by 10000 tons to 12.24 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1843 short tons to 189720 short tons [7]. Important Information - China - US economic and trade consultations began in London [7]. - In May, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year [7]. - Chile's copper exports in May were 4.48 billion dollars, a 4.4% year - on - year increase [7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Due to the delivery risk in LME, copper prices may rise in the short - term [10]. - Arbitrage: Hold the borrow strategy [10]. - Options: Wait and see [10] Alumina Market Review - Futures: The 2509 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 2883 yuan/ton [12]. - Spot: The prices in different regions were mostly flat, with a 25 - yuan decrease in Xinjiang [12]. Relevant Information - The national alumina production capacity was 112.42 million tons, with an operating capacity of 90.65 million tons and an operating rate of 80.6% [12]. - The ex - factory price of a certain tender was nearly 100 yuan/ton lower than the previous transaction price in the central region [12]. - As of June 5, the national alumina inventory was 3.133 million tons, a decrease of 29000 tons from the previous week [13]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Alumina prices are expected to decline towards the cash cost of high - cost production capacity, and attention should be paid to raw material supply risks [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [16]. - Options: Wait and see [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The 2507 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 20060 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot: The prices in different regions decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [18]. Relevant Information - China - US economic and trade consultations continued [18]. - In May, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline of PPI expanded to 3.3% [20]. - Tian Shan Aluminum plans to carry out a green and low - carbon energy - efficiency improvement project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity [20]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the seasonal inflection point of consumption [21]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [21]. - Options: Wait and see [21] Zinc Market Review - Futures: LME zinc fell 0.98% to 2654 dollars/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2507 fell 0.9% to 21925 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot: The spot price in Shanghai decreased, and the overall transaction was average [24]. Relevant Information - As of June 9, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 81700 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from June 3 [24]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [24]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [24]. - Options: Wait and see [24] Lead Market Review - Futures: LME lead rose 0.53% to 1988 dollars/ton, and Shanghai lead 2507 rose 0.81% to 16865 yuan/ton [26]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead rose 25 yuan/ton, and the transaction of recycled lead was poor [26]. Relevant Information - As of June 9, the total social inventory of SMM's five - region lead ingots was 53400 tons, an increase of 3500 tons from June 3 [26]. - A large - scale recycled lead smelter in the northwest postponed its resumption of production [27]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate in a range [28]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [28] Nickel Market Review - Futures: LME nickel fell 125 dollars to 15365 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel 2507 fell 740 yuan to 121950 yuan/ton [30]. - Spot: The premiums of Jinchuan, Russian nickel, and electrowon nickel decreased [30]. Relevant Information - An ITSS nickel - iron plant's 14 furnace resumed production after maintenance [31]. - A Swedish battery manufacturer may stop production at the end of June [31]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro and nickel ore changes [35]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [35]. - Options: Consider the range double - selling strategy [35] Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The SS2507 contract fell 70 yuan to 12560 yuan/ton [34]. - Spot: The prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [34]. Important Information - Indian stainless steel enterprises called for tariff measures to deal with imports [34]. - A stainless steel project in Fujian is expected to be completed in mid - August [37]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Pay attention to the support at 12500 yuan [38]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract rose 2.33% to 7475 yuan/ton [40]. - Spot: The spot price was stable, and there was a possibility of a decline [40]. Relevant Information - Shaanxi plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price policy [40]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short positions can be arranged above 7500 yuan/ton [42]. - Arbitrage: Hold the reverse spread of Si2511 and Si2512 [42]. - Options: Wait and see [42] Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract fell 2.24% to 34105 yuan/ton [44]. - Spot: The transaction prices of different types of polysilicon were basically flat [44]. Relevant Information - Zhejiang encourages virtual power plants and user - side energy storage to participate in response [44]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions in the PS2507 contract and gradually stop losses below 34000 yuan/ton [46]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread of far - month contracts [46]. - Options: Sell call options to realize profits [46] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The 2507 contract fell 100 yuan to 60700 yuan/ton [48]. - Spot: The prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased by 50 yuan [48]. Important Information - In May, the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased significantly [48]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Sell on rebounds, and do not recommend bottom - fishing [51]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [51]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [51] Tin Market Review - Futures: The 2507 contract rose 0.38% to 263860 yuan/ton [51]. - Spot: The average price of Shanghai tin ingots decreased by 500 yuan/ton [51]. Important Information - China - US economic and trade consultations continued, focusing on tariffs, technology, and rare earths [52]. - In May, CPI and PPI decreased [52]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The decline of tin prices may be limited in the short - term [53]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply - side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, while the market's expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash - cost, and production enthusiasm is frustrated. The demand side is relatively weak, with downstream photovoltaic component production schedules and silicon wafer enterprise quotas being adjusted down, and cell manufacturers having production cut plans. Terminal market has strong wait - and - see sentiment. Overseas market demand is uncertain due to macro - economic instability and trade frictions. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices. Long - term operation should focus on short - selling [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 33,955 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the main contract position is 62,708 lots, down 2,267 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 2,825 yuan/ton, up 565 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 26,540 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The basis of polysilicon is 2,545 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the export volume of industrial silicon is down 12,197.89 tons. The spot price of industrial silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the total social inventory is 587,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 954 tons, down 1,952 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71,928,000 kilowatts, down 6,516,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is down 11,583.8 units; the monthly import volume is 20,120.44 units, up 10,274.32 units; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/unit, up 0.02 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, unchanged [3]. Industry News - As of June 9, the mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon, N - type dense - type polysilicon, N - type re - feeding polysilicon, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are all stable. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and continued on June 10 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the market trends and investment outlooks for various commodities on June 10, 2025, covering precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trend intensities of each commodity to guide investors [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Gold 2508 closed at 774.72 yuan, down 1.09% [2][7]. - **Silver**: There was a technical breakthrough. The trend intensity is 2. The price of Shanghai Silver 2508 closed at 8909 yuan, up 0.70% [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of LME copper strengthened, supporting the price. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 78,910 yuan, down 0.03% [2][12]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a sideways consolidation. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20025 yuan, down 45 yuan [2][15]. - **Alumina**: It continued to decline. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 2892 yuan, down 9 yuan [2][15]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories increased, and the price was under downward pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 21910 yuan, down 2.12% [2][18]. - **Lead**: In the short - term, both supply and demand were weak, but it was bullish in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 16765 yuan, down 0.09% [2][21]. - **Tin**: It stopped falling and rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 263,740 yuan, up 0.05% [2][25]. - **Nickel**: There was a game between real - world support and weak expectations, and the nickel price fluctuated. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 122,710 yuan [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The negative feedback led to increased production cuts, and the steel price fluctuated in a range. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,640 yuan [2][28]. Energy - **Crude Oil - related (not directly mentioned)** - **Fuel Oil**: The daytime session was weak, and it would enter an adjustment phase in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of FU2507 closed at 2,927 yuan, down 0.54% [2][141]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly showed a fluctuating trend, and the spot price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the international market continued to rise. The trend intensity is 0. The price of LU2507 closed at 3,583 yuan, down 0.31% [2][141]. - **Coal - related** - **Coking Coal**: It fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is 0. The price of JM2509 closed at 780 yuan, up 1.5 yuan [2][50]. - **Coke**: It fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of J2509 closed at 1339 yuan, down 11.5 yuan [2][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand awaited release, and it fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is 0. The previous opening price of ZC2507 was 931.6 yuan [2][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There were large differences in the pressure from the producing areas, and it was bottom - grinding with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the palm - oil main contract closed at 8,182 yuan, up 0.89% [2][169]. - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force was temporarily weak, and it oscillated in a range. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the soybean - oil main contract closed at 7,766 yuan, up 0.36% [2][169]. - **Soybean Meal**: The weather was normal, and US soybeans closed down. Dalian soybean meal might follow the decline. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of DCE Soybean Meal 2509 closed at 3019 yuan, up 28 yuan [2][174]. - **Soybean**: The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The price of DCE Soybean 2507 closed at 4138 yuan, down 4 yuan [2][174]. - **Corn**: It trended strongly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 1. The price of C2507 closed at 2,357 yuan, up 0.90% [2][177][178]. - **Sugar**: It was in a low - level consolidation. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the futures main contract closed at 5734 yuan, down 1 yuan [2][183]. - **Cotton**: It continued to be affected by market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. The price of CF2509 closed at 13,495 yuan, up 1.01% [2][187]. - **Eggs**: The industry still had a resistance sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Eggs 2507 closed at 2,837 yuan, down 1.18% [2][191]. - **Hogs**: Weight reduction had just started, waiting for confirmation from the spot market. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Henan's spot hogs was 13900 yuan/ton [2][193]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PK510 closed at 8,310 yuan, down 1.17% [2][196]. Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: The ore price stabilized, and the weak oscillation continued. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 2507 contract closed at 60,700 yuan, up 260 yuan [2][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The upward space was limited, and short - selling on rallies was recommended. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of Si2507 closed at 7,475 yuan, up 185 yuan [2][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - selling on the futures was recommended. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of PS2507 closed at 34,105 yuan, down 635 yuan [2][36]. - **PTA**: Demand weakened, and the medium - term trend was weak. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the PTA main contract closed at 4602 yuan, down 1.1% [2][63][64]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the MEG main contract closed at 4256 yuan, down 0.1% [2][63][64]. - **Rubber**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the rubber main contract was 13,725 yuan, up 75 yuan [2][70][72]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the butadiene - rubber main contract was 11,270 yuan, down 30 yuan [2][75]. - **Asphalt**: It followed crude oil and trended strongly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 1. The price of BU2507 closed at 3,519 yuan, up 0.28% [2][78]. - **LLDPE**: It oscillated in the short - term and still faced pressure later. The trend intensity is 0. The price of L2509 closed at 7078 yuan, up 0.08% [2][89]. - **PP**: The spot price was stable, and there was just - in - time demand. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PP2509 closed at 6932 yuan, up 0.09% [2][94]. - **Caustic Soda**: The valuation was under pressure due to high profits. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the 09 - contract futures was 2308 yuan [2][97]. - **Pulp**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,394 yuan, up 114 yuan [2][101][102]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. The trend intensity is 0. The price of FG509 closed at 1006 yuan, up 1.31% [2][106][107]. - **Methanol**: It rebounded in the short - term, but the medium - term pressure was still large. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the methanol main contract closed at 2,277 yuan, up 4 yuan [2][109][110]. - **Urea**: It was in a weak operation. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the urea main contract closed at 1,697 yuan, down 23 yuan [2][114][115]. - **Styrene**: It oscillated in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Styrene 2506 closed at 7,360 yuan, up 127 yuan [2][118]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. The trend intensity is 0. The price of SA2509 closed at 1,202 yuan, down 0.91% [2][121][122]. - **LPG**: It oscillated in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PG2507 closed at 4,116 yuan, up 0.44% [2][124][126]. - **PVC**: The trend still faced pressure. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 09 - contract futures was 4816 yuan [2][136]. Others - **Log**: It oscillated repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 2507 contract closed at 772 yuan, up 0.5% [2][58][60]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It oscillated at a high level; hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread. The trend intensity is 0. The price of EC2506 closed at 1,948.6 points, down 0.31% [2][143]. - **Short - Fiber**: It oscillated in the short - term and was weak in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Short - Fiber 2507 closed at 6388 yuan, down 6 yuan [2][162]. - **Bottle - Chip**: It oscillated in the short - term and was weak in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Bottle - Chip 2507 closed at 5868 yuan, down 32 yuan [2][162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It trended weakly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of 70g Tianyang in the Shandong market was 4950 yuan/ton [2][166][167].

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 06 月 10 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The silicon price rebounded due to a false rumor of a major company's equity sale, and it is expected to decline again, but the subsequent downward space may be limited [1]. - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market are weak, with the transaction price moving down. Considering the high uncertainty of terminal installation and the short - term difficulty in solving the over - capacity problem, it is expected that the polysilicon price will not show an upward trend in the short term, and the strategy is to short on rebounds [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon's不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) also remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 2.54% to 7,475 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the flood season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, with overall high hesitation, low willingness to resume production, and overall production decline [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The silicon market has weak supply and demand, and high inventory pressure. After the false rumor is confirmed, the silicon price is expected to decline again, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, the polysilicon re - feeding material price remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price fell 1.83% to 34,105 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some factories may have new capacity put into production, with the expected output within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuously falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, slow market demand, and weak market transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak, and the polysilicon price is expected to have no upward trend in the short term. The strategy is to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor the changes on the supply side [1]. Other Information - The Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project entered the main - structure construction stage, with a planned annual production capacity of 100,000 tons [1]. - Hesheng Silicon Industry denied rumors of a planned equity transfer [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Natural Rubber**: Short - term macro warming drives rubber price rebound, but under the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the rubber price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds above 14,000. Attention should be paid to the raw material volume in each production area and macro events [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to pick up, but the supply increase is larger. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. However, the rebound of coal prices provides some support, and the price may fluctuate at a low level [3]. - **Polysilicon**: In June, there is no obvious improvement in fundamentals. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, and the cost support may decline. It is recommended to close long positions and even try shorting on high prices [5]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, in the long - term, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory after maintenance. It is advisable to consider 7 - 9 calendar spreads and short on rebounds in the far - month contracts. For glass, it still faces over - supply pressure after the short - term market sentiment boost. The price may be strong in the short - term but will be under pressure later [6]. 3. Summary by Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 1.48% from June 5. The full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was 100 yuan/ton, up 1900% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 890 yuan/ton on June 6, down 10 yuan or 1.14% from June 5 [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand's production was 105,700 dry tons, down 29.16% from the previous period; Indonesia's production was 194,100 dry tons, down 7.26%. The weekly start - up rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory was 614,584 tons on June 6, up 0.06% from the previous day. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 21,873 tons, up 23.99% [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon was 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 5. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) was 1,015 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2506 - 2507 spread was 0 yuan/ton on June 6, up 100% from June 5 [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, down 12.10% from the previous month. The production of organic silicon DMC was 184,000 tons, up 6.48% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang inventory was 190,800 tons on June 6, up 0.37% from the previous day. The social inventory was 587,000 tons, down 0.34% [3]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 5. The N - type material basis (average price) was 1,760 yuan/ton, down 10.20% [5]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The bs2506 contract price was 34,740 yuan/ton on June 6, up 0.58% from June 5. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 2,260 yuan/ton, up 43.49% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the polysilicon production was 96,100 tons, up 0.73% from the previous month. The weekly silicon wafer production was 130,400 GM, down 2.69% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 269,000 tons on June 6, down 0.37% from the previous day. The silicon wafer inventory was 20,020 GM, up 7.81% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On June 6, the North China glass quotation was 1,160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The glass 2509 contract price was 997 yuan/ton, up 3.53% [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On June 6, the North China soda ash quotation was 1,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The soda ash 2509 contract price was 1,212 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [6]. - **Supply**: In late May, the soda ash operation rate was 78.57%, down 0.08% from the previous period. The weekly soda ash production was 685,000 tons, up 1.08% [6]. - **Inventory**: In late May, the glass inventory was 67,762,000 square meters, down 0.01% from the previous period. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.6243 million tons, up 1.37% [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area in real estate was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points from the previous period; the completion area growth rate was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67 percentage points [6].

2025年06月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：低位运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：短期进口减量，长期供需过剩，震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅：情绪见顶，盘面具备下行动能 | 17 | | 多晶硅：现货具备下跌驱动，盘面空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：事故扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 27 | | ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 估值低位易受扰动，基本面仍待改善 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 8 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 6 月四川进入丰水期，部分硅厂陆续复产。云南 7 月进入丰水 期，由于电价没有明确给予优惠，因此大部分硅厂仍处于观望 状态。需求端仍无明显起色。盘面快速下跌后，硅厂惜售，期 现手中的货源出货情况较好，但硅厂惜售也导致工厂库存不断 累积，不排除库存压力下部分硅厂仍将降价出货。目前盘面价 格几乎跌破全行业现金成本线，后续关注供给的进一步变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 节后现货成交较少，采购方压价情绪强烈，而一线硅料厂仍在 挺价，导致双方处于僵持状态，二三线料厂前期价格有所下 移。6 月硅料排产上调至 9.6 万吨，单月仍有望去库 1 万吨左 右。前期下游备货使得原材料库存变动较大，但备货主力仍为 前期原材料库存较高的几家硅片厂，其余硅片厂无太多原材料 囤货。下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after the China-US call, the commodity sentiment has improved, and the profit - taking of short positions in most under - performing commodities may lead to a market rebound. Industrial silicon will be affected to some extent, and there may be abnormal fluctuations in the disk due to short - term position reduction. The fundamentals change little, with the futures price oscillating and the spot price stabilizing [1][3]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak. With the short - term improvement in commodity sentiment and more capital games, the disk may maintain a wide - range oscillation [4][6]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On June 5, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract 2507 opened at 7200 yuan/ton and closed at 7135 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.56%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 183,965 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 6, 2025 was 61,309 lots, a decrease of 494 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 - silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1]. - On June 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons from last week. The inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 135,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot parts) was 452,000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week [1]. - The organic silicon DMC quotation was 11300 - 11600 yuan/ton. The average price this week decreased slightly by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week. The opening quotation of DMC on the online mall of Shandong monomer enterprises was 11400 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with last week. The DMC quotations of other domestic monomer enterprises were 11500 - 11600 yuan/ton. The local transaction price in the domestic DMC market declined, terminal demand weakened, and some enterprises with relatively high inventory levels slightly lowered prices to attract orders [2]. Strategy - The one - side strategy is mainly range operation, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On June 5, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures maintained an oscillating pattern, opening at 34,810 yuan/ton and closing at 34,540 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 0.27% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 65,802 lots (67,873 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 127,429 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The quotations of polysilicon re - feedstock were 32.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 269,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, the silicon wafer inventory was 20.02GW, a month - on - month increase of 7.80%, the weekly polysilicon output was 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.85%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.04GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.67% [4][5]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.08 yuan/piece [5]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.25 yuan/W (down 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction prices of PERC182mm were 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm were 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm were 0.69 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm were 0.69 - 0.69 yuan/W [5]. Strategy - The one - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].