Group 1 - CITIC Securities predicts that the establishment of an independent new energy storage capacity pricing mechanism by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration will stabilize revenue expectations for energy storage and stimulate investment enthusiasm among owners [1] - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements shifts the industry focus from cost competition to value creation, gradually revealing investment value [1] - CITIC Securities expects a rapid growth in domestic energy storage installations by 2026 and is optimistic about leading companies in the energy storage industry chain [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities notes that the risk appetite in the market continued to decline in January, with high dividend sectors performing better than in December, particularly in oil, coal, and steel [1] - Looking ahead to February, Huatai Securities suggests that as market volatility increases, the allocation value of high dividend sectors has marginally improved compared to the previous month, recommending a focus on stable high dividend stocks with defensive attributes and some potential high dividend varieties [1] Group 3 - CITIC Jin Investment indicates that the white liquor industry is approaching a turning point in its adjustment phase, coinciding with the "five bottoms" stage and the capital market's "three lows and one high" [2] - The upcoming Spring Festival season is seen as a potential catalyst for the white liquor sector, presenting a cyclical bottom allocation opportunity in the capital market [2]

Market Overview - On February 2, the domestic commodity futures market saw widespread limit-downs, with major contracts for silver, palladium, platinum, copper, nickel, crude oil, and lithium carbonate all hitting the limit. The night session closed with the main silver contract down 20%, tin down 12.38%, crude oil down 4.8%, and gold down 3.86% [4][15]. Manufacturing Sector - China's official manufacturing PMI for January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month. The National Bureau of Statistics noted that some manufacturing sectors entered a traditional off-season, coupled with insufficient market demand, leading to a decline in manufacturing sentiment [4][15]. Shipbuilding Industry - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume reached 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global total. However, new orders received were 107.82 million deadweight tons, down 4.6% year-on-year, representing 69.0% of the global total. As of the end of December, the hand-held order volume was 27.44 million deadweight tons, up 31.5% year-on-year, making up 66.8% of the global total. China has maintained its leading position in the international shipbuilding market for 16 consecutive years [4][15]. Steel Market - On February 2, the national main port iron ore transactions were 817,000 tons, a decrease of 9.9% month-on-month. The transaction volume of construction steel from 237 mainstream traders was 46,800 tons, down 16.5% month-on-month [5][16]. - Last week, the operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week and up 1.02 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate for ironmaking was 85.47%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points week-on-week but up 0.83 percentage points year-on-year. The profit margin for steel mills was 39.39%, down 1.30 percentage points week-on-week and down 9.53 percentage points year-on-year. The average daily pig iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons week-on-week [5][16]. - The total supply of five major steel products last week was 8.2317 million tons, continuing to rise week-on-week. The production of rebar increased by 0.28 million tons to 1.9983 million tons, while hot-rolled production increased by 3.8 million tons to 3.0921 million tons. The total inventory of five major steel products was 12.7851 million tons, an increase of 214,300 tons week-on-week [5][16]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Steel - Rebar production continued to increase slightly, with a total output of 1.9983 million tons, and total inventory rose by 234,300 tons to 4.7553 million tons. Demand decreased by 91,200 tons to 1.764 million tons. The current supply of rebar is recovering, but demand remains weak, leading to a seasonal downturn in the market. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with continued narrow fluctuations [6][17]. - Hot-rolled steel production saw a slight increase, with actual output at 3.0921 million tons, up 38,000 tons week-on-week. Total inventory decreased by 22,000 tons, but the pace of reduction has slowed. Demand increased slightly by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. Traders are cautious about future market conditions, adopting a "low inventory, fast turnover" strategy [7][18]. Price Strategy - The short-term trading range for rebar 2605 is referenced at 3,050-3,200 yuan/ton, while the hot-rolled 2605 contract is referenced at 3,250-3,350 yuan/ton [8][19]. Alloy Market - The alloy market is experiencing increased volatility, with emotional trading becoming evident. Overall supply remains low, and production levels have stabilized. The cost side is seeing gradual increases, but fundamental support remains insufficient. Steel mills' production intensity is stable, and the winter restocking phase is nearing its end. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern [9][20].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 2026/2/3 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 棉纱 | 沥青 | | | | 液化石油气 | 棉花 | 合成橡胶 | | | | 尿素 | 十债 | 硅铁 | | | | 红枣 | 五债 | 苹果 | | | | 生猪 | 三十债 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | PVC | 燃油 | | | | | 铁矿石 | 二债 | | | | | 甲醇 | 白糖 | | | | | 塑料 | 多晶硅 | | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 工业硅 | | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 烧碱 | | | | | | 橡胶 | | | | | | 碳酸锂 | | | | | | 锰硅 | | | | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | | | 纸浆 | | | | | | 纸浆 | | | | | | 焦煤 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 3 日 0 / 47 | 股指期货：做空动能释放 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：波澜不惊 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面小幅震荡 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡 | 国内价格偏弱 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽度震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面底部震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 | 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 金银：金银震荡初显企稳，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：巨幅震荡逐步收敛 风险释放后等待低多机会 17 | | 铜：恐慌情绪退坡，铜价企稳 17 | | 氧化铝：震荡为主 18 | | 电解铝：流动性收紧带动价格回调后 震荡为主 19 | | 铸造铝合金：连日回调后 铝合金随板块震荡 20 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market follows the market sentiment and weakens. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the iron ore market is under pressure from high shipments and high inventory, while pre - holiday restocking in the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of price increase for coke has been implemented, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. There are disturbances in the glass supply, but the oversupply situation continues to limit the upside space of the glass futures market. Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures price, but the restocking intensity before the Spring Festival still exists, and the subsequent resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and the cost side still has support. It is expected that the sector will oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Category 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals continued to weaken. Due to the impact of weather, there is an expectation of supply disturbances. On the demand side, iron - making water production decreased slightly month - on - month, steel mills' profitability weakened, rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated before the Spring Festival, but the support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Both supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and it is expected that the spot price will mainly follow the finished products [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been fully implemented, and coking profits have improved significantly. The overall supply change is limited. On the demand side, steel - mill blast furnaces are in a state of both resumption and maintenance, and iron - making water production remains high, with strong rigid demand support. The inventory in steel mills has increased steadily. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel - mill resumption expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost side (coking coal) [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. The downstream winter - storage restocking is still in progress, and the upstream coal - mine inventory is being continuously digested. As the winter - storage inventory gradually reaches the target, the spot - market sentiment has cooled down, and the online auctions show mixed results, with the overall coal price weakly stable. The futures market oscillates due to the impact of capital - sentiment fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, domestic coal - mine production will gradually decline, the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is limited. The spot is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation of the futures - market sentiment remains to be observed [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw - material prices and the change in manufacturers' production - control intensity [15] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - and - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity before the Spring Festival suppresses the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production is continuously at a high level, and restocking is nearing the end. The overall supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply situation will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13]

增绿就是增优势，植树就是植未来。河北塞罕坝，三代林场建设者吃黑莜面、喝冰雪水、睡地窨子，用 60多年的时间，创造了从"一棵松"到百万亩人工林的生态奇迹，探索出林业碳汇、林下经济等绿色产 业。 放眼全国，这样的战略定力结出累累硕果。非化石能源消费占比由2020年的16%提高到2025年的20%以 上;单位GDP能耗持续下降，成为全球能耗强度下降最快的国家之一;森林覆盖率超过25%，成为全球增 绿最多最快的国家……一步一个脚印，目标变成现实。 有光追光，有风逐风，中国经济向绿而行，靠的是各地因地制宜、各展所长。 山西太原，太钢集团作为传统钢铁企业，高能耗、高排放一度是难以撕掉的标签。企业瞄准高端不锈钢 领域攻关，研发出厚度仅0.02毫米的"手撕钢"，广泛应用于航空航天、精密仪器等高端制造领域。一家 企业的蝶变，彰显发展智慧。 前不久发布的中国经济年报中，一项数据具有标志性意义：2025年，我国新能源汽车国内新车销售量占 比突破50%。 回看2020年国务院办公厅印发的《新能源汽车产业发展规划(2021—2035年)》，当时设定的目标是：到 2025年，新能源汽车新车销售量达到汽车新车销售总量的20%左右。 成绩远 ...

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market for steel products is in the off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory. The central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. Short - term price drops are due to the pull - back of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. For steel products, short - term prices are in a narrow range, and a direction choice may be needed. For iron ore, the demand is in the off - season, and supply is expected to decline further due to seasonal factors, with resistance above in the short - term [2][4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, apparent demand decreased month - on - month, total inventory continued to rise, the total output of five major steel products increased slightly, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the consumption off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory from a low level [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3098 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (- 0.96%) from the previous day and 45 yuan (- 1.43%) from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3261 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (- 0.82%) from the previous day and 41 yuan (- 1.24%) from last week. Other relevant prices such as spot prices, basis, and spreads also showed corresponding changes [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or sell down. Wait for the bottom signal to be confirmed and then add positions at low prices [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is still in the consumption off - season. The molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement of steel apparent demand may be due to the year - end rush to complete projects. Steel and molten iron output will not increase significantly for the time being, but the decline space is also limited [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have declined, and shipments are expected to continue to decline due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory has been rising [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 783 yuan/dry ton, down 8.5 yuan (- 1.07%) from the previous day and 1.5 yuan (- 0.19%) from last week. Other prices such as spot prices, basis, and spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or sell down [4]. 3. Industry News - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3.0946 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.2 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.521 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 126.7 million tons [6]. - On February 2, China Construction Bank supported the signing of the first - batch project of purchasing second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Shanghai, marking the substantial start of this work [6]. - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.6692 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.7 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.4847 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.3 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.2887 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 50.6 million tons [6]. - According to Mulin Research, from February 2 to February 8, 2026, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 5, 2 less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 29%; the total arrival volume was about 185,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 15% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Youfa Group, expects significant growth in net profit for 2025, driven by improved operational performance and investment gains [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 646 million to 706 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.11% to 66.23% [1][2]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 433 million and 493 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 35.24% to 53.98% year-on-year [1][2]. - In 2023, despite a 9.56% decline in revenue, the net profit increased by 91.85% to 570 million yuan [3]. Market Position - Youfa Group is the largest manufacturer of welded steel pipes in China, maintaining the top position in production and sales for 19 consecutive years [1][4]. - The company has a production capacity of 654.77 million tons of various steel pipes in the first half of 2025, marking a 4.18% increase year-on-year [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its domestic production base and accelerating overseas capacity expansion to improve market share and brand influence [1]. - Youfa Group is actively pursuing global expansion, focusing on Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia, and has established subsidiaries for direct export trade [5][6]. Investment and Assets - The company holds 341,700 shares of Muxi Co., with an estimated fair value change gain of approximately 110 million yuan [1][2]. - As of September 2025, Youfa Group has cash and cash equivalents of 11.62 billion yuan and trading financial assets of 172 million yuan, indicating strong short-term liquidity [3].

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a modern industrial system and the consolidation of the real economy are prioritized as strategic tasks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the importance of political supervision to ensure effective implementation of these goals [5][17]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System Construction - The modern industrial system is deemed essential for economic modernization and is positioned as the material and technical foundation for a modern socialist country [8][17]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to focus on the real economy, with a commitment to intelligent, green, and integrated development [8][17]. - The construction of a modern industrial system is linked to achieving strategic advantages in future development and international competition [6][17]. Group 2: Political Supervision and Support - Political supervision is highlighted as a primary responsibility of the disciplinary inspection and supervision agencies to ensure the implementation of major decisions regarding the construction of the modern industrial system [5][9]. - The central disciplinary inspection and supervision agencies are actively engaging in monitoring and evaluating the implementation of policies related to traditional and emerging industries [9][10]. - Local disciplinary bodies are focusing on specific industries, such as steel and artificial intelligence, to enhance political supervision and ensure compliance with national directives [12][13]. Group 3: Industry Development and Innovation - The manufacturing sector has maintained its position as the world's largest for 16 consecutive years, with significant advancements in high-end equipment, green energy, and intelligent manufacturing [7]. - By 2025, the value added of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing is expected to reach 36.8% and 17.1% of the total industrial value added, respectively [7]. - The integration of technology and industry is being prioritized to foster innovation and support the development of new production capacities [6][9]. Group 4: Challenges and Strategic Considerations - The construction of a modern industrial system faces various challenges, including the need for a balanced approach between traditional and emerging industries [17][18]. - There is a call for a strategic focus on both new and old industries, recognizing the importance of traditional sectors while promoting new technologies [17][18]. - The need for a dynamic balance in industrial structure is emphasized to prevent hollowing out of the manufacturing sector while optimizing its composition [17][18].