Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing a positive start in 2026, with several companies reporting strong production and sales performance in January, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Yangchun New Steel achieved a production and sales rate of 101% in January and successfully expanded into the Hainan market [1]. - Wuhu Xinxing set multiple historical records, with special steel shipments reaching their best levels in recent years [1]. - Fangda Steel exceeded production targets for both steel and materials, maintaining a self-generated electricity rate of over 95% [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to Everbright Securities, the probability of a supply-side adjustment in the steel industry has increased in the short to medium term [1]. - The losses reported by steel companies in Q4 are nearing those expected in Q3 and Q4 of 2024, highlighting the necessity for adjustments [1]. - Since the beginning of 2026, tightening export policies for steel have emerged, which could impact the industry's profitability, necessitating supply-side policies to mitigate these effects [1]. Group 3: ETF Information - The Steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Industry Index (930606), which selects listed companies from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets involved in various steel sub-industries to reflect the overall performance of the steel sector [1].

Group 1: Molybdenum Market Overview - The domestic molybdenum market experienced a positive start after the holiday, with most product prices significantly increasing. Molybdenum concentrate prices rose by approximately 80 yuan/ton, molybdenum iron prices increased by about 5,000 yuan/ton, and molybdenum powder prices went up by around 5 yuan/kg [1][4]. - Key factors influencing the molybdenum market include a reduction in molybdenum product imports during the Spring Festival and a decrease in production from domestic manufacturers, both contributing to rising prices. Additionally, international molybdenum prices fluctuated significantly during the holiday period [1][4]. Group 2: Steel Inventory Data - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the steel inventory of key statistical steel enterprises reached 15.11 million tons in early February 2026, an increase of 400,000 tons (2.7%) compared to the previous period, and a rise of 970,000 tons (6.9%) since the beginning of the year [2][5]. - Year-on-year comparisons show a decrease of 1.1 million tons (6.8%) compared to the same period last year, and a reduction of 1.02 million tons (6.3%) compared to two years ago. Regionally, steel inventories increased in Northeast (350,000 tons), Northwest (40,000 tons), Southwest (30,000 tons), and Central South (240,000 tons) regions, while inventories decreased in North China (160,000 tons) and East China (110,000 tons) [2][6].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Xinxing Casting has seen a stock price increase of 5.36%, reaching 5.11 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 256 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.32%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 20.252 billion yuan [1] - Xinxing Casting Co., Ltd. is located in Wuan City, Hebei Province, and was established on May 24, 1997, with its listing date on June 6, 1997. The company's main business includes the production of centrifugal ductile iron pipes and fittings, casting products, steel smelting and rolling processing, steel-plastic composite pipes, steel grating, and special steel pipes [1] - The revenue composition of Xinxing Casting's main business is as follows: casting pipes and fittings account for 31.61%, special steel 24.89%, ordinary steel 23.42%, and other products 20.08% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders of Xinxing Casting, a fund under Guotai Fund ranks among the top ten shareholders. The Guotai CSI Steel ETF (515210) entered the top ten shareholders in the third quarter, holding 23.889 million shares, which is 0.61% of the circulating shares. It is estimated that today's floating profit is approximately 6.2111 million yuan [2] - The Guotai CSI Steel ETF (515210) was established on January 22, 2020, with a current scale of 3.98 billion yuan. Year-to-date returns are 4.22%, ranking 2684 out of 5580 in its category; the one-year return is 30.64%, ranking 2032 out of 4297; and since inception, the return is 77.99% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Guotai CSI Steel ETF (515210) is Wu Zhonghao. As of the report, Wu has a cumulative tenure of 4 years and 29 days, with the total asset scale of the fund at 24.055 billion yuan. The best fund return during his tenure is 110.52%, while the worst return is -17.57% [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; glass to trade weakly in a range [1][7][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggest buying copper on dips; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1][10][11][13][14][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC; low - level rebound for caustic soda; selling short on rallies for soda ash; strong - biased oscillation for styrene; range trading for rubber, urea, methanol; weak - biased oscillation for polyolefins [1][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Strong - biased oscillation for cotton and cotton yarn; oscillation for apples and jujubes [1][24][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract of live pigs, selling short on rallies; selling short on rallies for near - month egg contracts if culling does not accelerate; range trading for corn; short - selling on rallies for soybean meal; buying on dips for oils [1][28][29][30] Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It also analyzes the impacts of policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal factors on different futures markets [1][5][8][10] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish, buy on dips. AI concerns boost precious metals, and the market may be strong before the Two Sessions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Oscillation. Despite supply pressure, the bond market may continue the bull market if the pressure can be digested [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The tariff game continues, and the steel price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to low valuation and weak driving forces [8] - **Glass**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply reduction and demand weakness coexist, and there are potential risks and uncertainties [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Suggest buying on dips. Supply is tight, demand is resilient, and copper remains a strategic resource [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is expected to improve, but the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous market remains [11] - **Nickel**: Suggest buying on dips moderately. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price [13] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is in a recovery trend [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical events and economic data affect the prices, and the mid - term price centers are rising [14] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. Supply and demand factors coexist, and attention should be paid to the disturbances in Yichun's mining end [16] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Low valuation, weak domestic demand, and high inventory, but there are potential opportunities from policies and exports [16][18] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level rebound. Supply pressure is large, and the price may be supported if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves [18] - **Soda Ash**: Selling short on rallies. Supply is excessive, and the price may be under pressure in the short - term [24] - **Styrene**: Strong - biased oscillation. Low inventory during the Spring Festival and export support the price, but supply may increase in March [19][20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is in the off - season, and demand is expected to support the price [20] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply increases, and demand is supported by agricultural and industrial needs, with stable prices [21] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand is weak, and the market is weak [22][23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply is high, demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and inventory accumulates [23] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Strong - biased oscillation. Global cotton supply and demand change, and the price is expected to be strong after the festival [24] - **Apples**: Oscillation. The trading volume of different grades of apples varies in different regions [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillation. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes varies by region [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract, selling short on rallies. Short - term price is under pressure, and long - term price depends on capacity reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Selling short on rallies for near - month contracts if culling does not accelerate. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak after the festival [28] - **Corn**: Range trading. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply is relatively loose [29] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - selling on rallies. Global supply is abundant, and domestic supply is loose from March to June [29][30] - **Oils**: Buying on dips. After the Spring Festival, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market higher, with different performances among varieties [30][31][32][33][34][35]

Group 1: Steel Industry - The unconventional steel production at Benxi Steel is continuously breaking through design capacity, with a target of exceeding 6 million tons annually by 2025 [2][3] - The production process involves precise control of parameters and material dimensions to successfully roll out ultra-thick and ultra-wide steel products, with over 90% of the output being unconventional steel types used in major engineering projects and the new energy vehicle industry [2][3] Group 2: Green Energy - The Qiuzi Substation in Gansu is a key node for national projects like "East Data West Computing," integrating distributed green energy resources to supply power to data centers and reduce transmission losses through voltage elevation [4][5] - The substation operates with 200 sets of equipment, marking the first use of such technology locally, and emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring and learning during operations [6] Group 3: Robotics Industry - The performance of humanoid robots at the Spring Festival Gala showcased significant advancements in dynamic and collaborative control, moving from mechanical execution to intelligent self-adaptation [7][8] - The preparation for the robot performance involved extensive software development and algorithm validation, allowing for real-time self-monitoring and quick adjustments during the show [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - There is no clear core view presented in the provided content. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices - Spot prices of various steel products in different regions from 2026/02/09 to 2026/02/13 are provided. For example, Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan's thread steel prices remained unchanged during this period, with prices of 3100, 3210, 3320, 3240, 3400, and 3300 respectively. Similarly, prices of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils in some areas also showed no change [1]. Price and Profit - There is no detailed content about price and profit in the provided text. Production and Inventory - There is no detailed content about production and inventory in the provided text [7]. Basis and Spread - There is no detailed content about basis and spread in the provided text [11].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints 2.1 Overall Market Outlook - The stock index futures are expected to have a good start in the Year of the Horse. During the holiday, the overseas market was stable with a slight increase, while the US stocks adjusted due to AI concerns and tariff uncertainties. There were no significant unexpected negative events during the holiday, which has a positive impact on risk appetite. The new US tariff policy may lead to a reduction in tariffs on China. Domestic factors such as holiday travel consumption, box - office revenue, and the rise of the Chinese robot industry, especially the latter, are expected to boost market sentiment and become an important supporting force for the market. Historically, the market style tends to favor technology stocks after the Spring Festival, and the pre - two sessions policy expectations may be traded before the Two Sessions, but there may be a pull - back later [8][9]. 2.2 Commodity Market Analysis - Different commodities have different trends. For example, copper prices are volatile due to increased uncertainty; zinc shows a range - bound trend; lead has a weak supply - demand situation and is range - bound; tin is affected by tariffs; aluminum has a relatively strong sentiment after the festival, while alumina is range - bound; and so on for various other commodities [12][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Tariff Policy - The US Customs and Border Protection will stop collecting the illegally - imposed tariffs from February 24. The suspension of this tariff does not affect other tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The US Senate Democrats will prevent any attempt to extend the tariffs imposed by Trump under Article 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which may lead to the collapse of the tariff system established in Trump's second term [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The focus is on stock index futures, with a high attention level of ★★★★. The market is expected to be strong in the early post - holiday period, and later, attention should be paid to AI narratives, tariff and geopolitical changes, domestic policy directions, and industrial hotspots [8]. 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Base Metals - **Copper**: Uncertainty increases, and prices are volatile. The US stock market declined due to AI concerns and tariff risks, and the US Customs will stop collecting illegal tariffs. Harmony Gold's new Australian copper mine needs two years of renovation. The global refined copper supply had a surplus of 98,000 tons in December 2025 [15][17]. - **Zinc**: Ranges - bound. The Ministry of Commerce urged the US to cancel unilateral tariff measures. Wall Street analysts believe that the effective tariff rate may decline slightly in the second half of the year, and there may be potential tax refunds [18][19]. - **Lead**: Weak supply - demand, range - bound. The US stock market was affected by AI concerns and tariff risks, and the US Customs will stop collecting illegal tariffs [21]. - **Tin**: Affected by tariffs. The price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract decreased by 7.05%, while the London tin 3M electronic disk increased by 1.35%. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs [24]. - **Aluminum**: Strong sentiment after the festival. Alumina is range - bound, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The US Democrats will stop the extension of tariffs and promote a mandatory refund plan. Trump may consider military action against Iran [27][29]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Platinum**: Boosted by the strong performance of silver. - **Palladium**: Volatile and slightly strong due to tariff disturbances [31]. 3.3.3 Other Metals - **Nickel**: There is still speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradiction in nickel ore. The Indonesian government has restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses, and some nickel - related projects in Indonesia are facing various situations such as policy adjustments, fines, and monopolistic investigations [35][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support center has moved up, but off - season inventory accumulation restricts its elasticity [35]. 3.3.4 Energy - related Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The report does not directly analyze crude oil, but the impact of geopolitical factors on the energy market is mentioned, which may have an impact on related products such as fuel oil [140]. - **Fuel Oil**: May gap up at the opening, and short - term fluctuations will continue to expand. Low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to rebound [128]. 3.3.5 Chemical Commodities - **PTA and PX**: Supported by costs, with a relatively strong upward trend. During the Spring Festival, the US dollar price of PX increased significantly, and it is expected that the domestic PTA price will gap up at the opening. The polyester industry is expected to enter a positive feedback pattern [73][74]. - **MEG**: Range - bound operation. The overseas ethylene glycol price was stable during the Spring Festival, and the domestic market is expected to remain stable on the first trading day after the festival. The supply - side start - up rate is rising, and there is a large inventory accumulation in February [75]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Commodities - **Palm Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors causing oil price increases, the pre - holiday fundamental logic continues. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean market is stable, and the soybean oil price rebounds within a range [156]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market changed little during the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the US tariff policy [162]. - **Soybean**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment, and the price may be slightly strong [162]. - **Corn**: Volatile and slightly strong. The US Department of Agriculture predicts that the US corn planting area will decrease in 2026, and the global corn output may decline in the 2026/27 season [165][166]. - **Sugar**: Range - bound consolidation. India's sugar production has increased in the 2025/26 season, and China's sugar import and production data also show certain trends [169][170]. - **Cotton**: Expected to open slightly higher. The domestic cotton spot basis is relatively stable, and the ICE cotton futures first declined and then rebounded during the Spring Festival [174][175]. - **Eggs**: Volatile adjustment [180]. - **Hogs**: The spot price during the holiday was lower than expected [183]. - **Peanuts**: Volatile operation [188]. 3.4 Shipping Index - The container shipping index (European line) is in a volatile market, and a range - bound trading strategy should be adopted. The supply - side shipping capacity has changed during the Spring Festival, with February remaining stable, March being revised downwards, and April being revised upwards. The demand side has certain differences in the short term, and the European import demand has resilience in the medium - to long - term [130][139][140].

中新网漳州2月24日电 (林军杰)23日，福建漳州举行2026年民营经济代表人士新春座谈会，漳州市委书 记王进足与漳州籍民营企业家代表齐聚一堂，共叙乡情，共谋发展。座谈会由漳州市市长魏东主持。 图为2月23 日，2026年漳州市民营经济代表人士新春座谈会现场。林军杰 摄 现场，漳州食品企业代表、化学原料和化学制品制造企业代表、冶金新材料企业代表、数字经济企业代 表、人工智能企业代表、生物科技企业代表、绿色纸业产业代表，以及漳籍台胞代表、行业商会代表等 20多人围桌而坐，畅所欲言。大家一致认为，人工智能是未来产业升级的关键，主动拥抱AI，将抢占 发展商机。 当天，漳州市人才联合会会长、蒋氏(漳州)投资有限公司董事长蒋艾青作为食品企业代表发言，他表 示，联合会将聚焦漳州食品工业、冶金新材料、新能源、数字服务等"9+5"产业，全力助力乡亲互通有 无，抱团发展。 "中国民营企业500强"的三宝集团，是一家拥有国内外先进装备的综合性现代化钢铁龙头企业，公司董 事长王光文在发言时点赞漳州出台多项重点举措支持民营经济发展，政策红利也惠及三宝集团。对于 2026年，王光文满怀信心和期待，他呼吁企业家们继续实干争优，再攀新高， ...

Market Overview - On February 24, the A-share market experienced a positive start with all three major indices rising: the Shanghai Composite Index opened up by 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.52%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.7% [1] - The market sentiment was buoyed by strong performances in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, and computing power [1] Market Data - Key index performances included: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4129.13 (+47.06, +1.15%) - Shenzhen Component Index: 14313.86 (+213.67, +1.52%) - ChiNext Index: 1830.15 (+20.97, +1.16%) - Total trading volume reached 30.5 billion [2] Analyst Sentiment - Multiple brokerage firms expressed optimism regarding post-holiday market trends, suggesting that the market is likely to experience a period of upward movement driven by policy catalysts and liquidity support [3] - Analysts highlighted that the A-share market has released some risk following adjustments in overseas assets, indicating a high probability of a favorable market window ahead [3] Investment Focus - Institutions are focusing on two main investment themes: technology and resource products [4] - In the technology sector, the AI industry is expected to see significant developments, with a shift towards value realization and commercialization anticipated by 2026 [4] - Key areas of interest include infrastructure for computing power, commercial applications in humanoid robots, smart driving, and sectors benefiting from advancements in multi-modal capabilities [4] Resource Products - The rise in international precious metals and oil prices during the holiday period has enhanced their investment appeal [5] - Analysts noted that the upcoming peak construction season in March and April could lead to price increases in various sectors, including chemicals, steel, and high-end manufacturing [5] - Opportunities in the export chain are also highlighted, particularly in consumer electronics, automotive parts, and medical devices [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to focus on the recovery intensity of plate demand, the policy trends of the Two Sessions, and whether there are marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies. In the short term, the black series is likely to continue the weak - range oscillation pattern, and the trend opportunity is not clear [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of non - ferrous metals and commodity bulls. The short - term market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle, suppressing the overall atmosphere [8][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) 3.1.1 Market Quotes - On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3055 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.163%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 19,597 tons, a net increase of 2,694 tons. The main contract position was 1.9424 million lots, a net decrease of 87,095 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3222 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.124%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 332,840 tons, a net increase of 34,986 tons. The main contract position was 1.4822 million lots, a net decrease of 51,469 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Lecong was 3250 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - Before the Spring Festival, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was cautious, and the prices of finished products continued to oscillate in the bottom range. Overseas policy uncertainties increased, and the market risk appetite declined, disturbing commodity prices. After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to focus on the recovery intensity of plate demand, the policy trends of the Two Sessions, and whether there are marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies. In the short term, the black series is likely to continue the weak - range oscillation pattern [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Quotes - On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 746.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.10% (- 16.00). The position change was - 3368 lots, changing to 494,600 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 866,600 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 756 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.24 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.01% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - In terms of supply, after the weather disturbance in Australia during the Spring Festival was eliminated, overseas ore shipments returned to the high level of the same period. The shipments from Australia increased significantly, and those from Brazil increased slightly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries rebounded month - on - month. The near - end arrival volume continued to decline. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output according to the Steel Union's data before the festival increased to 230,490 tons. The resumption of blast furnaces was mainly due to the planned resumption after the previous blast furnace overhauls, and some blast furnaces in certain regions started annual overhauls. The profitability rate of steel mills declined slightly. During the holiday, the production activities of domestic steel mills were carried out normally and smoothly, and the daily average pig iron output was expected to increase slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory before the festival was at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, and the inventory was transferred to the factory faster, driving the high increase in the port clearance volume and the month - on - month decline in port inventory. Overall, after the end of the weather impact, overseas supply recovered, and the high inventory suppressed the price increase. The structural factors need to be resolved, and the price will mainly oscillate. After the festival, it is necessary to pay attention to the start - up situation of domestic terminal demand and the policy guidance of important meetings in March [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon 3.3.1 Market Quotes - On February 13, the last day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.52%, at 5770 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5870 yuan/ton on the disk, with a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the disk. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 0.15%, at 5492 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 208 yuan/ton over the disk. In the last week before the Spring Festival, the manganese silicon disk price showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with a week - on - week decline of 84 yuan/ton or - 1.43%. The ferrosilicon disk price also showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with a week - on - week decline of 144 yuan/ton or - 2.55% [7]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of non - ferrous metals and commodity bulls. The short - term market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle, suppressing the overall atmosphere. In terms of the fundamentals of the varieties themselves, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors have mostly been factored into the price and are not the main contradictions leading the future market. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced, with some improvement due to the overhaul and production conversion of some factories. The main contradictions leading the market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the future are, on the one hand, the direction guidance of the black sector or the influence of the overall market sentiment; on the other hand, the cost - pushing problem caused by manganese ore on the manganese silicon side and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) problem caused by losses or "dual - carbon" on the ferrosilicon side. It is recommended to pay close attention to whether there are sudden situations in the manganese ore end (such as possible restrictive measures on manganese ore exports in South Africa and Gabon) and their possible strong driving force on the market. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy and its possible impact on the supply of ferroalloys [8][9]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke 3.4.1 Market Quotes - On February 13, the last day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.09%, at 1121.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1547.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1356.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 235.5 yuan/ton over the main contract. The quoted price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1253 yuan/ton, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton. The quoted price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1202 yuan/ton, with a premium of 81 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 1.08%, at 1682.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 43.5 yuan/ton over the main contract. The quoted price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1766 yuan/ton, with a premium of 84 yuan/ton over the main contract [11]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke weakened. On the one hand, as the Spring Festival approached, the downstream terminal replenishment ended, leading to a decline in relevant demand and restricting prices. On the other hand, the market still lacked confidence in the downstream steel terminal demand after the festival, and some long - position funds "fled" due to the need for position - closing and risk - avoidance before the festival, driving the price down. In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of non - ferrous metals and commodity bulls. The short - term market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle, suppressing the overall atmosphere. During the Spring Festival, the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation increased, and the large - scale military deployment of the US in the Middle East led to a significant rebound in crude oil and precious metal prices. The rise in energy prices may have a certain positive impact on coal prices. In terms of the variety itself, the short - term upward catalysis of coking coal prices is not strong. On the one hand, the fundamental support is not sufficient. The current structure of coking coal is relatively balanced, and the downstream terminal consumption performance has not shown obvious improvement or the expectation of improvement. The low disk profit limits the transmission of upstream price increases to the downstream. On the other hand, the market sentiment does not provide sufficient environmental support, making it difficult to form a resonant bull market and attract more speculative funds to push up the price. In addition, after the Spring Festival, it will soon enter March, when coal mines will start to resume production, which will be the month with the highest coal output in the whole year. With the end of the heating season (weakening coal demand) and the gradual rise of hydropower (increasing alternative supply of thermal power), historically, March - May is the period when coking coal prices are most likely to experience a callback. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a phased price callback, unless there are sudden situations on the supply side. Although the short - term catalysis of coking coal is not strong, it is still expected to have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, but the time node is more likely to be between June and October, when factors such as the safety production month and the consumption peak season are superimposed, rather than the present [13][14][15]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.5.1 Market Quotes - **Industrial Silicon**: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of industrial silicon futures (SI2605) closed at 8395 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.72% (+ 60). The weighted contract position changed by - 30,277 lots, changing to 386,817 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of non - oxygen - passing 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 805 yuan/ton. The quoted price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. After converting to the disk price, the basis of the main contract was 455 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of polysilicon futures (PS2605) closed at 49305 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.59% (+ 290). The weighted contract position changed by - 1175 lots, changing to 63,145 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type dense material was 52.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type re - feeding material was 53.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 3945 yuan/ton [19]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - **Industrial Silicon**: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, industrial silicon oscillated and rebounded. From the perspective of the disk trend, the price was weak. On the supply side, in February, a large factory in the northwest of the industrial silicon industry shut down half of its production, and all production enterprises in Sichuan Province stopped production. The industry's operating rate declined under price pressure, and the supply side continued to contract. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in February declined. A leading enterprise had gradually shut down all its bases in January and maintained the shutdown in February. The operating rates of organic silicon and silicon - aluminum alloy were weakly stable, and the overall demand for industrial silicon weakened. Currently, the production contraction elasticity in the southwest region is significantly smaller than the expansion elasticity. The price support depends on the cost and the production - reduction intensity of northwest enterprises. If the large northwest factories resume production as planned in March, the price is expected to remain weak. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the external impact of the coking coal trend on industrial silicon. Overall, the price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak. After the festival, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there are unexpected changes in the production of upstream and downstream enterprises [18]. - **Polysilicon**: In terms of supply and demand, a leading enterprise maintained a full - scale shutdown in February, and the supply continued to decrease. The production schedule of silicon wafers is expected to remain stable, and the supply - demand situation will improve marginally. The high inventory in the silicon material sector is expected to be slightly reduced. The prices of battery cells and components have increased due to pre - festival policies and cost promotion, but the silicon wafer sector is still in a state of low prices and high inventory. Therefore, the positive feedback from the real - world end to the silicon material sector is not smooth. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can strengthen after the festival and be transmitted to the upstream. In terms of policy expectations, it is expected that anti - involution will continue to support the price, and the full cost below can be used as a reference for price support. At the same time, the anti - monopoly red line will be strengthened in legal operation. In terms of the disk, the position and liquidity of polysilicon futures have both declined to a relatively low level since listing, and the disk is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the post - festival demand feedback and spot prices [20][21]. 3.6 Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1 Market Quotes - **Glass**: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.25% (- 24). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1030 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The quoted price in Central China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On February 12, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 55.352 million cases, a month - on - month increase of 2.288 million cases (+ 4.31%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 10,494 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 11,965 lots [23]. - **Soda Ash**: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.03% (- 12). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1100 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On February 12, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.588 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0069 million tons (+ 4.31%), of which the