国产大豆主力合约减仓,价格止跌反弹。本周东北地区大部气温偏高，降水偏多，上壤墒情适宜。预计未来一周，大豆产区天 气对作物生长有利。短期政策端在进行购销双向交易，交易成交情况好。进口大豆方面未来一周美豆产区天气利于作物生长。 短期持续关注天气和政策的指引。 【大豆&豆粕】 美国大豆优良率为668.与市场预期持平，优良宰属于正常水平。天气上，未来两周大部分美国大豆产区降雨量小幅波动，温度咯 低于常值。特朗普政府已对包括日韩在内的多个国家发出最新的税率威胁，范围为25%至40%，执行时间推迟至8月1日，并强调 不会再次推迟。今日连抬继续震荡，国内油厂周压榨量保持高位，豆粕库存上升。中美贸易上的不确定性因素依旧较多，美国 天气暂时未发生恶劣变化，对未来的上涨还有一定的想象空间，大连豆粕行情目前先以震荡对待。 | | | | VY V SDIC FUIURES | | 2025年07月09日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 显一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚 ...

软商品日报 2025/07/09 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

农产品期权 2025-07-09 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品有所转弱，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖延续偏弱， 棉花温和上涨，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

晨光生物：上半年净利润预增102.33%–132.38% 7月9日晚，晨光生物（300138）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计2025年上半年实现归属于上市公 司股东的净利润2.02亿元至2.32亿元，同比增长102.33%至132.38%。 资料显示，晨光生物成立于2000年4月，主营业务是天然植物提取物。 所属行业：农林牧渔–农产品加工–其他农产品加工 北方稀土：上半年净利润预增1882.54%–2014.71% 7月9日晚，北方稀土（600111）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计2025年上半年实现归属于母公司 所有者的净利润9亿元至9.6亿元，同比增长1882.54%至2014.71%。 资料显示，北方稀土成立于1997年9月，主营业务是生产经营稀土原料产品、稀土功能材料产品及部分 稀土终端应用产品。 所属行业：有色金属–小金属–稀土 友发集团：上半年净利润预增151.69%–178.93% 7月9日晚，友发集团（601686）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计2025年上半年实现归属于公司股 东的净利润2.77亿元至3.07亿元，同比增长151.69%至178.93%。 资料显示，友 ...

宏源期货有限公司 玉米：政策扰动，期价承压 肖锋波（F3022345）（Z0012557) 目录 第一部分 行情回顾 基本面分析 第二部分 第三部分 未来展望 数据来源：Wind、钢联、宏源期货研究所 1 第一部分：行情回顾 CBOT玉米价格跌势暂缓，转为震荡运行。截至7月7日，CBOT玉米主力合约收盘价为403.75美分/蒲式耳， 周环比下跌5.25美分/蒲式耳。管理基金净多持仓持续减少，截至7月1日，净多持仓-206463手，周环比减 少24181手。 数据来源：Wind、钢联、宏源期货研究所 2 3 • 近期国内玉米期价偏弱运行，持仓量减少。截至7月7日，大商所玉米期货主力合约收盘价2326元/吨， 周环比下跌2.19%；玉米期货合约持仓量1563264手，周环比减少2.36%。 • 利多因素：进口低位，基层余粮见底，用粮企业收购热情较高，小麦托市收购提供底部支撑。 第一部分：行情回顾 • 利空因素：进口玉米拍卖落地，小麦饲用性价比高。 第一部分：行情回顾 玉米注册仓单量高位持稳，截至7月7日达203732手，显著高于往年。玉米期货合约成交回落，上周日均 成交量62.54万手。 数据来源：Wind、钢联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Huangshi Market Supervision Administration has conducted a food safety inspection, revealing that out of 624 food samples tested, 613 passed while 11 were found to be non-compliant, highlighting ongoing food safety concerns in the region [3][4]. Summary by Categories Inspection Results - A total of 624 food samples were tested, covering 21 categories including grain products, edible oils, pastries, alcoholic beverages, meat products, beverages, condiments, tea, eggs, dairy, vegetable products, frozen foods, canned goods, aquatic products, starch, honey, fruit products, convenience foods, catering foods, and agricultural products [3]. - Of the 624 samples, 613 were compliant, resulting in a compliance rate of approximately 98.24% [4]. Non-compliance Details - The 11 non-compliant samples included: - 1 batch of condiments with excessive sulfur dioxide residue - 3 batches of vegetable products with violations related to lemon yellow, benzoic acid, and sorbic acid - 2 batches of agricultural products with pesticide residues (thiamethoxam and enrofloxacin) - 5 batches of catering foods with issues related to anionic synthetic detergents, sodium saccharin, sweeteners, and coliform bacteria [4][5]. Follow-up Actions - The Huangshi Market Supervision Administration has mandated immediate investigation and handling of the non-compliant products, including actions such as removal from shelves, recalls, and sales suspensions, along with further legal investigations [5].

Group 1 - The EU is preparing to sign a temporary "framework" agreement with the US, setting the tariff rate at 10%, which is equal to the baseline tariff imposed on the UK [1] - The US has proposed a draft agreement that offers limited tariff exemptions only for specific sectors like aircraft and spirits, while key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals receive no exemptions [2] - The EU is expected to face challenges in negotiations, as it is unlikely to achieve the same tariff reductions as the UK, particularly in steel and automotive sectors [2][3] Group 2 - The EU's negotiation strategy has faced criticism from businesses and some European countries, with calls for a quicker agreement [3] - In contrast, the UK has successfully negotiated a trade agreement with the US, reducing tariffs on automotive imports and securing zero tariffs on steel and aluminum products [4] - The UK’s approach has been characterized as a straightforward business transaction, allowing for flexibility and understanding of US objectives [4]

Core Insights - The global commodity market exhibits a complex technical landscape as of July 9, 2025, with various futures reflecting market participants' expectations for future price movements [1] - Technical analysis tools are crucial for assessing commodity price trends, with pivot point analysis providing clear identification of key price ranges for different commodities [3] Precious Metals and Energy Commodity Technical Patterns - Spot gold's pivot point is set at $3311.43 per ounce, with a support and resistance range from $3218.5 to $3394.45 per ounce, indicating market divergence on gold's value [4] - Spot silver shows a more concentrated technical performance, with a pivot point at $36.62 per ounce and a narrower support and resistance range of $35.79 to $37.56 per ounce, reflecting its dual industrial and investment characteristics [4] - NYMEX platinum's pivot point is at $1381.52 per ounce, with a wider support and resistance range from $1315.74 to $1450.74 per ounce, highlighting changes in supply-demand dynamics and industrial demand uncertainty [4] - WTI crude oil's pivot point is at $68.1 per barrel, with a support and resistance range of $65.71 to $70.45 per barrel, indicating a balanced state in the current oil market [4] Agricultural Commodity Futures Market Dynamics - The agricultural futures market shows a clear divergence, with most contracts declining as of July 7, 2025, particularly coffee futures, which fell 4.06% to 277.85 cents per pound [5] - Cocoa futures were the only commodity to rise, increasing by 2.32% to $8289.00 per ton, contrasting with the downward trend in other agricultural products [6] - Chicago Board of Trade agricultural futures also faced downward pressure, with soybean futures down 2.72% to 1020.75 cents per bushel and corn futures down 3.93% to 403.75 cents per bushel [6] - Historical data from July 3, 2025, shows a different market pattern, with most agricultural futures closing higher, indicating the sensitivity of the agricultural market to external factors [6]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读 本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货涨跌互现，集运欧线大幅上涨 ——中信期货晨报20250709 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-09 现货价格承压，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2935元/吨，较前日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.07%；菜粕2509合约2576元/吨，较前日 变动-3元/吨，幅度-0.12%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2850元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M09-85， 较前日变动-18；江苏地区豆粕现货2780元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09-155，较前日变动-8；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2780元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M09-155，较前日变动-8。福建地区菜粕现货价格2580 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM09+4，较前日变动+3。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部作物周报显示，截至7月6日当周，美国大豆优良率66%，一周前66%，上年同期68%， 与市场预期相符；大豆出苗率96%，一周前94%，上年同期98%；大豆开花率32%，一周前17%，上年同期32%； 大豆结荚率8%，一周前3%，上年同期8%。 市场分析 整体来看，近月到港维持千万吨级以上，油厂大豆和豆粕库存增加较快，预计在新季 ...