中国人民银行、金融监管总局、中国证监会、农业农村部印发《关于统筹建立常态化金融支持机制 助 力防止返贫致贫和乡村全面振兴的意见》《意见》提出，构建资本市场综合支持体系。加大农村地区企 业上市辅导培育力度，帮助更多企业利用多层次资本市场进行融资。对注册地在原脱贫地区的企业继续 实施上市"绿色通道"政策。支持符合条件的上市企业通过增发、配股、发行可转债、公司债等方式进行 再融资，募集发展资金用于当地特色产业发展、农业科技创口甘日化甘天"品种上市，提供更多符合乡 村产业发展需求的风险管理工具。继续在国家乡村振兴重点帮扶县稳步推进"保险+期货"，更好发挥项 目保障作用。 ...

最近特朗普与莫迪达成的那份贸易协议，看似是美印两国达成了某种握手言和，但仔细分析，印度似乎在这次协议中做出了不少让步，特别是莫迪，几乎被 特朗普逼迫着停购俄罗斯石油，并且在协议中承诺对美国进口商品的购买量增加了五倍。这种交易看似微不足道，但实际影响深远，值得我们深思。印度一 向自诩为世界药房，如今却不得不大幅增加美国商品进口，难免让人担心，这样的举措会不会导致印度本国工业遭遇冲击？而且，印度如何平衡美俄关系， 也变得愈加复杂。 协议的核心是关税双向减免，乍一听，似乎公平公正，双方都得到了好处。然而，细究之下，印度的承诺显然要大得多。根据协议，印 度必须在六个月内将美国的农产品和科技产品的关税下调30%到50%，而且非关税壁垒也要在一年内全部取消。与此同时，美国则立即取消了对印度加征的 25%的惩罚性关税，并将对等关税降至18%。表面上看起来是互惠互利，但印度显然是通过扩大进口来换取这一切。这种交易方式，怎么看都像是印度在割 肉给美国。特朗普在社交媒体上高调宣布美国大获全胜，然而莫迪却只是轻描淡写地表示感谢美国降税，却对其他承诺闭口不谈。这种态度的温差，似乎已 经透露出了某些问题的端倪。 说实话，印度在这次协议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the US and India marks a significant reduction in tariffs, facilitating deeper economic cooperation and market access for both nations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The US has implemented an 18% "reciprocal tariff rate" on Indian-origin goods, a substantial decrease from previous rates that could reach 50% or more [3][21]. - India has committed to significantly lowering tariffs on a range of US industrial and agricultural products, including specific items that benefit US agricultural states and manufacturing hubs [4][5][6]. Group 2: Non-Tariff Barriers - India has agreed to address long-standing non-tariff barriers that have hindered US companies, including the import licensing process for medical devices and market access restrictions for ICT products [7][8]. - The agreement includes a commitment from India to evaluate the adoption of US standards or international testing requirements within six months of the agreement's effectiveness [9]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - The US aims to expand exports, deepen market access, and strengthen regulatory frameworks, seeking not only to sell more products but also to lower entry barriers for US workers and producers in India [13][14][15]. - The agreement reflects a broader strategy where both countries are positioning themselves for future economic and technological collaboration, moving beyond mere tariff reductions [12][32]. Group 4: Procurement Commitments - A notable aspect of the agreement is the procurement commitment of $500 billion over five years, which includes high-value items such as energy, aircraft parts, and technology products [26][27]. - This procurement list is seen as a means to translate political agreements into tangible business contracts, particularly in the technology sector [28][29]. Group 5: Energy and Geopolitical Considerations - The agreement subtly ties tariff reductions to India's commitment to reduce imports of Russian oil, indicating a complex geopolitical exchange [35][37]. - India is gradually diversifying its oil supply sources, reflecting a strategic approach to balance its energy needs while maintaining relations with both the US and Russia [41][53]. Group 6: Future Cooperation and Challenges - The agreement is viewed as a first step towards a more comprehensive bilateral trade deal, with mechanisms in place to adjust commitments if either party alters its tariff arrangements [49][66]. - The real test will be whether the commitments translate into effective execution, particularly in areas like non-tariff barriers and digital trade rules [64][65].

"总的看，各地重要民生商品生产向好、货源充足，保障春节期间市场量足价稳具备坚实基础。"国家发 展改革委有关负责人分析，"米袋子"沉甸甸，去年粮食生产再获丰收，连续两年稳定在1.4万亿斤以 上，全国36个大中城市成品粮油储备可满足15天以上消费；"菜篮子"满当当，去年猪牛羊禽肉产量首次 超过1亿吨，当前肉类、鸡蛋产能充足；蔬菜在田面积同比稳中有增，随着"南菜北运"规模和北方设施 蔬菜上市量增加，市场供应将进一步丰富。 抓好生产流通，保障"供应足"。加强冬季农业生产防灾减灾，做好蔬菜等作物田间管理，补种、增种速 生绿叶菜等品种，助力增加市场供应。组织农产品批发市场、连锁商超、线上平台等积极对接主产区， 做好产销衔接，提前增加备货量，及时铺货上架。落实好鲜活农产品运输"绿色通道"政策，提升查验和 通行效率，协调解决道路受阻等问题，保障物流畅通。 聚焦终端环节，促进"价格稳"。启动蔬菜等政府储备投放，加大消费需求旺盛品种投放力度，满足群众 节前采购需要。发挥平价销售机制作用，依托连锁商超、社区菜店等渠道开展平价惠民销售。强化市场 监督检查，引导商户守法合规经营，严厉打击价格欺诈、哄抬价格等违法违规行为。 帮扶困难群众 ...

| | | | V V SUIL FUIURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月13日 | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 玉米 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | な☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ななな | | 【豆一】 临近假期,盘面呈现粕强油弱的状态,豆棕菜油呈现减仓态势。美豆上涨,受助于出口乐观预期和豆油提振。 我们倾向26/27年度美豆供需平衡表压力同比减少，主要是通过发展生物柴油以及贸易谈判提升需求，可以鼓励 供应端扩张,面积同比增长,单产维持在历史高点，也会大概率去库,因此易于提升CBOT大豆价格，我们要谨 慎美豆油和美豆震荡 ...

Report Information - Report Title: 2026 Commodity Outlook - Research Team: Guolian Minsheng Securities Forward-looking Research Team - Report Date: February 13, 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Industrial metals: Due to the demand from the electric vehicle, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, and the long - term insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaching the limit, copper and aluminum are recommended for their potentially positive fundamentals [3]. - Minor metals: Benefiting from China's macro - regulation and supervision of strategic minerals and the supply being restricted by mining quotas, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: With their defensive properties, the prices of silver and platinum are expected to enter an upward cycle, so they are recommended [3]. Core Views - The factors influencing commodity prices are divided into short - to - medium - term disturbances, cyclical factors, and trend/structural forces. Capital expenditure in the next 3 - 5 years will affect commodity supply and pricing [3]. Summary by Section 1. Commodity Price Drivers 1.1 Medium - to - Long - Term Influencing Factors: Capital Expenditure Cycle - Copper prices follow the marginal cost pricing principle, while oil prices do not fully conform. The oil price center may have a 5 - year cycle [12][14][15]. 1.2 Short - to - Medium - Term Disturbing Factors: Geopolitics and Supply - Side Restrictions - Commodity price fluctuations caused by geopolitics and supply - side restrictions usually correct within half a year to a year. The flexibility of US shale oil production can offset the impact of OPEC's production changes on oil prices to some extent, and OPEC+ production agreements affect oil prices within 6 months [23]. 1.3 Impact of Technological Progress - The impact of electric vehicle technology on oil demand is slower than on lithium carbonate demand. The new nickel production process has led to a large release of nickel ore capacity, and nickel prices have not outperformed inflation. US natural gas prices have underperformed inflation due to technological progress, and agricultural technological progress has significantly affected agricultural product prices [24][29][34][38]. 2. Traditional Energy: "Stable with Changes", Reshaping the Supply - Demand Structure 2.1 Oil Market - Global oil and gas upstream investment has been increasing since 2020, but it may not return to the high level of 2014 - 2015. OPEC's production recovery may be limited by remaining capacity. Trump's impact on US oil production may be limited. Global oil consumption is increasing, with China and India being the main contributors. The oil market may be in an oversupply situation in 2025 - 2026 [45][51][63][82][87]. 2.2 Natural Gas Market - Asian natural gas demand is stable, and China's dependence on imported LNG has weakened in 2025. US LNG project capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while Europe faces greater LNG import demand [91][98][104][112]. 2.3 Coal Market - Coal remains an important "ballast stone" in the power system. Global coal consumption growth is slowing, and supply is relatively stable. China's coal market is expected to operate stably under the policy of increasing supply and ensuring stable prices [120][126][132]. 3. Steel Industry: Weak Demand, Excess Capacity - Construction steel demand is in a low - growth state, and China's steel exports may be restricted by trade policies. Iron ore supply is expected to be loose, and the coking coal market supply - demand gap is narrowing, with prices fluctuating [134][139][149][159]. 4. Industrial Metals: Improving Supply - Demand Structure, Positive Fundamentals 4.1 Copper - Copper demand is facing a shift in growth drivers, with new energy sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics becoming important demand sources. However, copper exploration investment has been low, and the growth of ore - end resources has been suppressed. The slowdown of recycled copper smelting and the decline of processing fees may support copper prices [165][172][178][192]. 4.2 Aluminum - China's bauxite supply is tight, and imports account for a large proportion, with potential overseas supply disruptions. Global electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing, and China's production is restricted by the capacity ceiling, which may support aluminum prices [199][208][219]. 4.3 Rare Earths - China's rare earth mining and smelting quota growth has slowed down, and the increase in overseas supply is limited [224]. 4.4 Antimony - The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to increase, but domestic antimony mine production growth is limited, and global supply is tightening [230][235]. 4.5 Tungsten - The downstream demand for tungsten is expected to improve with the recovery of the manufacturing industry. However, domestic tungsten mine production growth may slow down, while overseas supply may increase [240][246]. 5. Precious Metals: Entering an Upward Cycle - Silver and platinum - group metals may continue to be in a shortage situation. The industrial demand for silver, especially in the photovoltaic sector, is strong, while the demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive industry may decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration [252][257]. 6. Agricultural Products: Climate Change Challenges, Regional Market Differentiation 6.1 Soybeans - The global soybean supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose. China's soybean consumption may decline, the US renewable fuel production has decreased, and trade policies may affect the soybean trade pattern. North American and South American soybean production has different trends, and China's soybean import volume may decrease [264][269][273][278][294]. 6.2 Corn - Global corn supply is tightening, with inventory decreasing. China's corn consumption is growing steadily, the US corn production has decreased but exports have increased significantly, Brazil's corn production has different trends, and its domestic ethanol production restricts exports [299][300][309][315][320]. 6.3 Wheat - The global wheat market is in a tight - balance state. China and India's imports may increase, Russia and the EU's supply has decreased due to bad weather, while North America and Australia's wheat production has been positively affected by the weather. The supply of major exporting countries is tight, and prices are stabilizing [321][331][332][339][340].

Core Viewpoint - The "vegetable basket" initiative is crucial for ensuring food security and promoting agricultural modernization, as highlighted in the 2026 Central Document No. 1, which emphasizes the importance of enhancing the quality and efficiency of this initiative for the benefit of people's livelihoods and development [1]. Group 1: Stability and Supply - Ensuring stable production and supply is the core principle of the "vegetable basket" project, which is essential for maintaining public confidence and market stability [3]. - Jinan has established 385 large-scale vegetable production bases of over 50 acres and more than 1,000 large-scale livestock farms, ensuring a sufficient supply of key agricultural products like vegetables, meat, and dairy [3]. Group 2: Technological Empowerment - Technological modernization is key to agricultural advancement, with Jinan implementing a digital management platform called "Qiancheng Liangtian" to enhance agricultural practices and shift from traditional methods to smart management [3]. Group 3: Brand Quality Enhancement - The demand for "vegetable basket" products has evolved from merely filling stomachs to seeking quality and uniqueness, making brand development essential for competitiveness [5]. - Jinan has established a public brand matrix called "Qianshui Renjia" and currently has 60 nationally recognized high-quality agricultural products, with a quality safety monitoring compliance rate of over 98% [5]. Group 4: Industry Integration - A comprehensive approach to the "vegetable basket" initiative is necessary, promoting integration across production, processing, sales, and tourism to enhance value and share benefits with farmers [5]. - Jinan plans to implement 10 key industrial chain projects this year to foster high-quality integration of the "vegetable basket" industry [5]. Group 5: Public Sentiment - The variety, price stability, and quality of the "vegetable basket" directly impact the happiness of the citizens, necessitating ongoing efforts in production stability, technological empowerment, brand building, and industry integration to improve the quality of life [6].

Core Viewpoint - In January, domestic policies aimed at stabilizing demand were implemented intensively, leading to significant support for market demand and a strong performance in the commodity market, as evidenced by the rise in the China Securities Commodity Futures Index and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index [1][5]. Index Performance Analysis - In January, the China Securities Commodity Futures Index rose by 13.57%, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index increased by 13.64%, indicating a strong upward trend in the commodity indices with a volatility of 19.71% throughout the month [2]. - The commodity market's strong performance was influenced by international factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and geopolitical risks, which heightened market sentiment towards commodities [4]. Domestic Policy Impact - The implementation of a series of fiscal and financial policies aimed at boosting domestic demand has led to a significant improvement in the commodity market, with a broad-based increase replacing the previous differentiated performance [5]. - The People's Bank of China lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, which has positively impacted the industrial sector [5]. Sector-Specific Analysis Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector showed a strong performance in January, with the China Securities Energy Chemical Industry Futures Index rising by 7.54%, driven by improved demand and cost support [8][10]. - The demand for energy products, such as gasoline and diesel, improved due to the implementation of domestic policies and international geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [10]. Steel Sector - The China Securities Steel Futures Index increased by 0.64%, supported by high demand and inventory reduction, with hot-rolled coil export orders rising by 12% year-on-year [12]. - The supply side faced tightening due to disruptions in Brazilian iron ore shipments, which provided additional cost support for the steel sector [12]. Construction Materials Sector - The China Securities Construction Materials Futures Index rose by 1.87%, reflecting a recovery in demand driven by accelerated infrastructure projects and supply-side adjustments [13]. - The market sentiment improved as the issuance of long-term special government bonds directed funds towards construction material projects [13]. Agricultural Products Sector - The China Securities Agricultural Products Index increased by 1.72%, with notable performance in oilseeds and soft commodities, driven by supply constraints and recovering demand [14]. - Palm oil prices rose due to adverse weather conditions in Malaysia, while cotton prices were supported by rising domestic purchase prices and weakening dollar index [14]. Contribution to Index Returns - The top contributors to the China Securities Commodity Futures Index in January were silver (4.09%), gold (1.47%), and crude oil (1.01%), while the only negative contributor was soda ash (-0.01%) [15][17]. - The strong performance of precious metals was attributed to increased safe-haven buying amid Federal Reserve policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [17].

回顾2025年，在丰产及成本下降共同作用下，国内玉米期现货价格跌至低位。进入2026年2月，玉米期 货主力合约由2603切换至2605。临近春节，市场购销基本停滞，基本面整体变化不大。 钢联数据显示，截至2月6日，全国售粮进度为61%，同比偏快4个百分点。其中，东北售粮进度达 64%，同比偏快8个百分点；华北售粮进度为57%，同比偏快2个百分点。随着春节临近，基层种植户及 部分持粮主体出货意愿增强，市场供应增量较为明显，北方港口到货量由50万吨/周增加至80万吨/周。 整体来看，国内售粮进度同比偏快，节后售粮压力或有所减轻。与此同时，随着节前农户变现需求持续 释放，中下游企业已建立安全库存，行情基本尘埃落定。玉米期现货价格短期或维持窄幅震荡，节后气 温回暖可能加速地趴粮集中销售，届时供应压力或有所增加。 （文章来源：期货日报） 近两年，由于玉米价格波动较大，渠道商存粮意愿偏弱，叠加年度结转库存持续偏低，港口库存长期处 于低位。数据显示，截至1月底，北港玉米库存为173.2万吨，虽较年初增加20万吨，但同比大幅减少约 267万吨；蛇口港玉米库存为58.2万吨，同比减少约83万吨；谷物库存为139.2万吨，同比减 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoint - The view that corn prices will fluctuate and rebound in the first half of the year remains unchanged, given the rapid sales of new grain, limited post - Chinese New Year surplus, and continuous public bidding and significant increase in imports, along with differentiated demand [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Trends - Corn's main 2605 contract rebounded this week. Spot prices rose slightly, with the flat - hatch price in Bayuquan increasing from 2330 yuan/ton to around 2340 yuan/ton, and the arrival price at Shekou Port rising from 2440 yuan/ton to around 2460 yuan/ton. The corn basis weakened, and the discount of the futures price narrowed [3] - Starch's main 2605 contract also rebounded this week. The starch price remained stable, and the basis weakened [3] Supply - side Analysis - New grain sales were fast, with limited post - Chinese New Year surplus. As of February 12, the national grain sales progress was 65%, 4% faster than the same period last year. Northeast China was 66%, 7% faster; North China was 58%, the same as last year; Northwest China was 76%, 2% faster. The post - Chinese New Year surplus was about 35%, and the supply in the Northeast might be tight. The public bidding of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation was active, with 138900 tons put in and 105800 tons sold as of February 12 [3] - Port inventories varied. As of February 6, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 1.792 million tons, still rising but at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The weekly shipping volume was 59200 tons, decreasing. The domestic - trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 43100 tons, and the foreign - trade inventory was 8700 tons, both decreasing [4] - Substitutes were insufficient, and corn imports increased significantly. The wheat - corn price difference remained high, making substitution unfeasible. In December, domestic corn imports increased by 44.1% month - on - month and 135.3% year - on - year. The total imports in 2025 were 264700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.8%. Corn imports have been rising since last October and may continue to increase [4] Demand - side Analysis - Feed demand was strong. Pig prices fell, and breeding profits were divided. As of February 6, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 91.42 yuan per pig, narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 38.09 yuan per pig, in loss again. In December, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, decreasing; the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, with the first month - on - month decrease in recent years and only a 0.5% year - on - year increase. In the poultry sector, egg prices fell, and breeding was close to loss. In December, the sales of chicken chicks increased, and the culling of old chickens reached a recent high. Although the inventory of laying hens has been slightly decreasing, the base was high [5] - Deep - processing demand declined. The processing profits of starch processing enterprises were mostly in loss, and the operating rate decreased. As of February 13, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 55.68%, further decreasing; the starch inventory was 1.025 million tons, increasing. Alcohol processing enterprises suffered large losses, with an operating rate of 53.97%, decreasing to a recent low. The operating rates of downstream starch sugar enterprises and paper - making enterprises decreased, and some enterprises may have shutdown plans due to upcoming holidays [6] Market Outlook and Suggestions - The view that corn prices will fluctuate and rebound in the first half of the year remains unchanged. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, while traders should buy at low prices and sell at high prices [6]