Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined, with a weekly drop of about 2.80%. The spot market's purchasing and sales atmosphere is relatively weak, and downstream buyers mostly maintain a strategy of purchasing as needed, lacking the willingness for centralized restocking. The overall trading activity is low, and market sentiment is cautious. As of March 19, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 11,540 tons, a decrease of 160 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.60%. The domestic jujube inventory showed a slight downward trend this week, but the market has gradually entered the seasonal off - season for consumption. With the continuous rise in temperature and the increasing supply of seasonal fruits, the terminal consumption demand for jujubes is expected to show a seasonal weakening trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 2.80% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot market is weak, downstream buyers purchase as needed, and the market is in a seasonal off - season. The terminal consumption demand for jujubes is expected to weaken seasonally [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to spot prices and the consumer side [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 2.80% [12]. - **Top 20 Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 20,632 lots [15]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 4,112 [19]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 395 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei gray jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was 300 yuan/ton [25]. - **Purchase Price in Main Producing Areas**: As of March 20, 2026, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [28]. - **First - Grade Jujube Spot Price**: As of March 20, 2026, the wholesale price of first - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 3.95 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin [32]. - **Special - Grade Jujube Spot Price**: As of March 20, 2026, the spot price of special - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.14 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.50 yuan/kg [36]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory**: As of March 19, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 11,540 tons, a decrease of 160 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.60% [41]. - **Supply Side - Production**: The jujube production in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [45]. - **Demand Side - Export**: In February 2026, China's jujube export volume was 2,017,112 kg, the export value was 32,204,511 yuan, the export average price was 15,965.65 yuan/ton, the export volume decreased by 56.25% month - on - month and 28.96% year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to February was 6,627,373 kg, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.71% [48]. - **Demand Side - BOCE Trading**: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand had a small amount of transactions [53]. 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for jujubes this week is presented in the relevant chart [54]. - **Stock Market - Hao Xiang Ni**: The price - to - earnings ratio chart of Hao Xiang Ni is provided [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 decreased, with a weekly decline of about 1.30%. According to the USDA report, for the week ending March 12, 2026, the net increase in export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 196,700 bales, a 22% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 273,900 bales, a 26% decrease from the previous week but an 8% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Both the export contract volume and shipment volume of U.S. cotton decreased during the week. In the domestic market, on the supply side, cotton imports increased significantly year - on - year, and port inventories continued to grow. From January to February 2026, China imported a total of 370,000 tons of cotton, a 41% increase year - on - year. On the consumption side, the "Golden March" demand in the textile industry started slowly. Spinning mills continued to resume production, yarn transactions were good, and inventories decreased significantly. It is expected that cotton prices may continue to rise after adjustment [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 decreased, with a weekly decline of about 1.30% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: U.S. cotton export contract volume and shipment volume decreased. In the domestic market, supply increased and consumption showed signs of recovery. It is expected that cotton prices may continue to rise after adjustment [5]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory conditions [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **U.S. Cotton Market**: This week, the price of the U.S. cotton May contract increased, with a weekly increase of about 3.30%. As of March 10, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of U.S. cotton were 115,992 lots, an increase of 3,732 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 137,023 lots, a decrease of 3,334 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 21,031 lots, a decrease of 7,066 lots from the previous week [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: For the week ending March 12, 2026, the net increase in export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 196,700 bales, a 22% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, the international cotton spot price was 79.35 cents per pound, an increase of 3.6 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract decreased, with a weekly decline of about 1.30%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract decreased by 0.42%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 188,581 lots, and the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 375 lots. As of this week, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 12,400, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 267 [21][27][33]. - **Spot Market**: As of March 20, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,649 yuan per ton. The price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 22,100 yuan per ton, the CY index of OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,450 yuan per ton, and the CY index of OEC10s (combed yarn) was 25,000 yuan per ton [41][52]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of March 19, 2026, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 14,155 yuan per ton, an increase of 381 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 13,287 yuan per ton, an increase of 623 yuan per ton from last week. The port pick - up price of imported cotton yarn C21S was 20,613 yuan per ton, the port pick - up price of C32S was 22,015 yuan per ton, and the port pick - up price of JC32S was 23,670 yuan per ton [55]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost and Profit**: As of March 19, 2026, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,742 yuan per ton, a decrease of 152 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 0 yuan per ton, a decrease of 394 yuan per ton from last week [59]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.51% and a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. At the end of December, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [62]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In February 2026, China's total cotton imports were about 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 44.1%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative cotton imports were 370,000 tons, a 41% increase year - on - year. In February 2026, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [66]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of January 31, 2026, the inventory days of yarn were 21.71 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.13 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87% [69]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: From January to February 2026, China's textile and garment export volume was 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. Among them, textile exports were 25.57 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%, and garment exports were 24.87 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [74]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.75% [78]. 3.4. Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week is presented, but specific data is not further described in the text [79]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongfa**: A chart of the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongfa is provided, but no specific analysis is given [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends, and investors are advised to be cautious and make decisions based on specific market conditions [5][6][7] - For some sectors, there are short - term uncertainties and potential risks due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [9][13][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力合约 rose by 0.10%, 0.07%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively [5] - The central bank conducted 130 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 115 billion yuan on that day [5] - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6][7] 3.2 Equity Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures主力合约 fell by 1.31%, 1.29%, 2.37%, and 1.90% respectively [9] - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait on the sidelines [9] 3.3 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold主力合约 fell by 4.63%, and the silver主力合约 fell by 9.99% [11] - The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait on the sidelines [12][13] 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. Rebar prices may rebound, but the space may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [15] 3.5 Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. With the end of key meetings, iron ore demand may increase, but the effect may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [17][18] 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, and demand is weak. Coke supply is stable, and demand may increase. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions [20] 3.7 Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon主力合约 rose by 0.10%, and the silicon iron主力合约 fell by 0.34%. The cost of ferroalloys is fluctuating upward, and the supply is still in a surplus state. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [22][24] 3.8 Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the intensification of the US - Israel - Iran war. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. However, Israel's decision not to attack Iranian energy facilities and the joint statement of six countries to escort the Strait of Hormuz led to a correction in crude oil prices. It is recommended to wait on the sidelines for the crude oil主力合约 [25][26][27] 3.9 Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP in Hangzhou and LLDPE in Yuyao rose. In the short term, polyolefins show a contraction trend. In the long term, the supply pressure will gradually increase, and the demand shows the characteristics of "rising production but cautious procurement". It is recommended to wait on the sidelines [28][29] 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力合约 rose by 1.17%. The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to maintain a strong - side shock pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of plant maintenance, crude oil price trends, and changes in tire export orders [30][31] 3.11 Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力合约 fell by 2.51%, and the 20 - grade rubber主力合约 fell by 2.08%. The Middle East conflict increases the cost of synthetic rubber, strengthening the substitution demand for natural rubber. However, the expected new rubber supply and slow demand recovery limit the price increase. It is expected to show a wide - range shock pattern [33][35] 3.12 PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC主力合约 rose by 0.39%. The short - term cost support is strong, and the price shows a strong - side shock pattern, but the upside is restricted by high inventory. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm and demand recovery strength in the medium term [36][37] 3.13 Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea主力合约 fell by 0.32%. The current market is facing high supply and policy constraints. The demand is weak, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of export policies and the demand connection after April [38][39] 3.14 PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2605主力合约 fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed. The supply is expected to be tight, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. PX is expected to enter the de - stocking stage. However, due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the price may fluctuate and there is a risk of correction [40] 3.15 PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2605主力合约 fell. The processing fee was adjusted, and the downstream demand was weak. The price is mainly affected by the cost side. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is recommended to operate with caution [41] 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力合约 rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The short - term trend is stronger than other polyester varieties, but due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, caution is needed [42] 3.17 Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2606主力合约 rose slightly. The supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal demand is stable. The low inventory and strong cost may provide support. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, plant dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [43][44][45] 3.18 Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605主力合约 fell. The cost support weakened, and the polyester demand was weak. Due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, it is recommended to participate with caution [46] 3.19 Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda ash主力 2605 fell. The supply is at a high level, the inventory is shrinking, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate and adjust, and the fluctuation range is expected to narrow [47][48] 3.20 Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass主力 2605 fell. The production line is shrinking, the inventory reduction speed is slowing down, and the downstream demand recovery is slow. The cost pressure is still there, and the futures price may fluctuate [49] 3.21 Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic soda主力 2605 rose slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price of alumina is rising, and the demand for caustic soda is expected to be good. Attention should be paid to overseas plant dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes, and plant maintenance progress [50][51][52] 3.22 Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp主力 2605 rose. The port inventory is decreasing, and the downstream demand is weak. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. The fluctuation risk of softwood pulp is relatively high, and hardwood pulp is relatively stable [53][54] 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate主力合约 fell. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply is in a tight balance. The demand in the consumer end is improving, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase [55] 3.24 Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper主力合约 fell. The geopolitical conflict affects the market sentiment, and the supply pressure is large in the short term. However, the downstream demand is improving, which provides support for the price. The copper price is expected to run weakly [56][57][58] 3.25 Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum主力合约 and the alumina主力合约 fell. The supply pressure of alumina is increasing, and the cost support is strengthening. The aluminum production in the Middle East is affected, and the domestic consumption is recovering. The aluminum price is in a phased correction [59][60] 3.26 Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc主力合约 fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by the geopolitical conflict. The social inventory is increasing, and the zinc price is under pressure [61][62] 3.27 Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead主力合约 fell. The production of primary lead is increasing, and the demand for lead - acid batteries is recovering. However, the geopolitical risk affects exports, and the lead price is under pressure [63][64] 3.28 Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin主力合约 fell. The geopolitical conflict affects the price, and the supply is gradually easing. The demand in the emerging fields provides support, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuation [65][66] 3.29 Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures主力合约 rose. The geopolitical conflict affects the price, and the nickel ore supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in a surplus state. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67] 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, and the high oil price provides support. The domestic soybean supply may be tight in the short term and relatively loose in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69] 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The export volume increased, and the domestic inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider reducing or closing long positions [70][71] 3.32 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price rose. The domestic import policy has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil shows different trends. It is recommended to wait and see [72][73] 3.33 Cotton - On the previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long term, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly in the long term [74][75][76] 3.34 Sugar - On the previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The foreign sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The increase in oil price will affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, and the long - term sugar price bottom is expected to rise [77][78] 3.35 Apple - On the previous trading day, the apple futures rose significantly. With the peak of Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the demand is released, and the inventory is decreasing. The apple market is expected to run strongly [79] 3.36 Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the live pig主力合约 fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions [80][81] 3.37 Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg主力合约 fell. The egg supply is expected to be at a high level in March, and the supply improvement in the far - month is worrying. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - month lightly [82] 3.38 Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn主力合约 rose slightly, and the corn starch主力合约 was flat. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced. The demand for corn starch is improving, but the supply is abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money put options when the price rises sharply [83][84][85] 3.39 Logs - On the previous trading day, the log主力 2605 rose. The supply of New Zealand logs is increasing, and the downstream demand is improving. The cost pressure is increasing, and the futures price is in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the external market quotation, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [86][87]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has led to increased uncertainty and volatility in various sectors [20][21][116] - Different industries are facing different challenges and opportunities. For example, the energy sector is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply disruptions, while the agricultural sector is influenced by factors such as production and demand [26][30][116] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - selling momentum was released. On Thursday, the stock index tumbled, affected by factors such as the Fed's decision and the escalation of the Middle East conflict. The short - term stock index will still fluctuate due to news and wait for the situation to become clearer. Trading strategies include grid operations for unilateral trading, IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [20][21][22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The foreign market risk appetite slightly stabilized. On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, but the bond market still lacks substantial positive drivers, and the upward space is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure increased, and the market fluctuated widely. The US soybean and soybean meal prices are affected by both fundamentals and the macro - environment. It is recommended to slightly layout long positions, but the space is limited [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices soared, and domestic sugar prices followed. International sugar production is expected to be lower than previously anticipated, supporting international sugar prices. Domestic sugar prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term. The recommended strategy includes going long unilaterally, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling put options [29][30][31] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oils may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the supply and demand of oils are in a state of uncertainty. It is recommended to wait and see for trading strategies [32][33][34] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The increase in millet auctions led to high - level fluctuations in the market. The US corn price is strong, and the domestic corn market is affected by factors such as demand and supply. The recommended strategies include a bullish view on the 05 corn contract on dips and widening the spread between 05 corn and starch [35][36][37] - **Hogs**: The pressure of hog slaughter increased, and hog prices continued to decline. Due to factors such as high inventory and relatively strong feed prices, hog prices are under pressure. It is recommended to close previous short positions [38][39] - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices were strong, and the futures market fluctuated strongly. Peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and the price of related products. It is recommended to go short - term long on the 05 peanut contract on dips [40][41][42] - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed of apples was acceptable, and the price of high - quality goods was firm. The fundamentals of apples are strong, but the upward momentum of the May contract is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [44][45][46] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw materials provided support, and steel prices maintained a fluctuating trend. The production of five major steel products increased, and the inventory decreased. Affected by overseas and raw material factors, steel prices will fluctuate in the short - term [49][50] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market fluctuated greatly, and attention should be paid to the progress of geopolitical conflicts. The price of coking coal is affected by both energy and industrial product attributes. It is recommended to conduct band trading [51][52][53] - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increased, and spot hedging at high levels was the main strategy. The iron ore price has risen rapidly, but the supply is still in a relatively loose pattern. It is recommended for spot enterprises to hedge at high levels [54][55][56] - **Ferroalloys**: Attention should be paid to the impact of hurricanes on manganese ore, and the price fluctuated strongly. Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a positive feedback state of demand and cost. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [58][59] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The escalation of geopolitical tensions increased concerns about interest rate hikes, and gold and silver were under pressure. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and the expectation of interest rate hikes, gold and silver prices are expected to face a period of "headwinds" in the short - term. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can participate with a short - term bearish view [61][62][63] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The marginal easing of the Middle East conflict led to a rebound in precious metal prices. The market for platinum and palladium is affected by geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of long - spread trading when the price difference is low [66][67] - **Copper**: Geopolitical risks continued, and copper prices fluctuated at a low level. The copper price is affected by the situation in the Middle East and supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to pay attention to macro changes [68][69] - **Alumina**: Alumina prices declined with market sentiment. Guinea's potential reduction in bauxite exports and new domestic production capacity will affect the supply of alumina. The price is expected to be under pressure [70][71][72] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical risks and macro - concerns jointly expanded, and aluminum prices weakened. Affected by the Middle East situation and macro - factors, the financial attribute of aluminum prices is significantly dragged down [73][74][75] - **Cast Aluminum Alloys**: Macro - expectations had a negative impact, and the market was under pressure along with aluminum prices. Affected by the Middle East situation and macro - factors, the market is under pressure [77][78] - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to macro and capital sentiment. The zinc market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical factors. The price may fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [81][82][83] - **Lead**: It is recommended to wait and see. The lead market is affected by factors such as inventory and supply. The current price is in a weak - fluctuation state [85][86][87] - **Nickel**: The short - term price was dominated by the macro - environment. The nickel price is affected by both macro - factors and industrial fundamentals, and it is recommended to be cautious [88] - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it followed the nickel price. The stainless - steel market is affected by global economic concerns and cost factors. It is recommended to wait for the macro - environment to stabilize [91] Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: Israel stated that it would suspend air strikes on energy facilities, and oil prices maintained a high - level fluctuation. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the container shipping market is facing cost and demand uncertainties. It is recommended to pay attention to military deployments and shipping companies' cargo - receiving situations [105][106][107] - **Dry Bulk Freight Rates**: The reduction in Guinea's bauxite exports in April may limit the rental height of large ships. The dry - bulk shipping market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. The long - term impact of the Middle East conflict on the market needs to be observed [108][109][110] - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market is still dominated by over - the - counter agreement transactions, and EU carbon futures continue to decline. The Chinese carbon market is expected to have increased trading activity in the medium - term, while the EU carbon market is facing policy and energy - related uncertainties [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances increased the amplitude of the market. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price maintains high volatility. It is recommended to go long at a high level [115][116][118] - **Asphalt**: Supply was tight, demand was weak, and concerns about raw materials continued. Affected by the Middle East conflict, the supply of asphalt is expected to decrease, but the demand recovery is slow. The price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [119][120] - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, the cost fluctuated at a high level. The fuel - oil market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to go long on the near - month LU contract on dips and pay attention to the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels [122][123] - **LPG**: Middle - East energy facilities were attacked, and the market was strong. The LPG price is affected by oil prices and supply disruptions. It is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [125][126][127] - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical risks continued, and the upward trend remained unchanged. The natural - gas market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions. It is recommended to sell deep - out - of - the - money put options on TTF futures [128][129][130] - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to reduce production. Affected by raw - material supply concerns, PX and PTA may face supply shortages. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [132][133][134] - **BZ & EB**: The shortage of raw - material supply led to an improved market outlook. Affected by raw - material supply concerns, the supply of benzene and styrene may be affected. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [135][136][137] - **Ethylene Glycol**: It has entered a de - stocking pattern. Affected by raw - material supply and import reduction, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has improved. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [139] - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuated within a range. The short - fiber market is affected by raw - material prices and supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [141][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory continued to decline. The bottle - chip market is affected by production restarts and seasonal demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [143][144] - **Propylene**: Supply was tight. The propylene market is affected by cost and supply factors. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [145][146] - **Plastic PP**: The gross profit of MTO - made PP increased. The plastic and PP markets are affected by macro - factors and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to hold long positions in relevant contracts [147][148][149] - **Caustic Soda**: The market was weak. The caustic - soda market is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [150][151][152] - **PVC**: The market mainly fluctuated. The PVC market is affected by international supply reduction and domestic supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to buy on dips [153][155] - **Soda Ash**: It fluctuated widely with a downward trend. The soda - ash market is affected by supply, demand, and macro - factors. The price is expected to continue to be weak [156][157][159] - **Glass**: It fluctuated widely with a downward trend. The glass market is affected by real - estate demand and supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to fluctuate widely with a downward trend [160][161][162] - **Methanol**: It remained firm at a high level. Affected by the situation in Iran, the supply of methanol is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be strong [163][164][165] - **Urea**: It fluctuated weakly. The urea market is affected by domestic and international supply - demand relationships and policies. The price is expected to fluctuate [166][167] - **Pulp**: The port inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the supply pressure was relieved. The pulp market is still in a state of oversupply, but the inventory reduction provides some support. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a small amount of long - position layout [168][169][170] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The transaction was average, and the market had only rigid - demand purchases. The offset - printing - paper market is affected by supply - demand relationships and raw - material prices. It is recommended to go short on rallies [171][172][173] - **Logs**: The increase in import costs supported the market's upward trend. The log market is affected by cost, supply, and demand factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [173][174][175] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The RU warehouse receipts continued to accumulate, but the rate slowed down. The natural - rubber market is affected by factors such as inventory and tire production. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU contract and consider short - selling the NR contract [177][178][180] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production of tires increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The butadiene - rubber market is affected by factors such as tire production and macro - factors. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR contract [184][185][186]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 20, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of these varieties [1][6][23][29][40][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from March 13 to March 19, 2026. The basis values are - 72.4, - 78.4, - 78.4, - 78.4, - 72.4 respectively, and the spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are presented. For example, on March 19, the basis of INE crude oil is 336.64, the basis of fuel oil is 199.69, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1733 [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. For instance, on March 19, the basis of rubber is - 90, and that of methanol is 35.5 [12] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is - 650 [13] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are shown. On March 19, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2979 [13] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is - 58.0 [22] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. On March 19, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.88 [22] - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are given. On March 19, the basis of rebar is 95.0 [23] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are presented. On March 19, the basis of copper is 1140 [30] London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 19, 2026 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is (100.12) [35] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are given. On March 19, the basis of soybeans No.1 is - 216 [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 27 [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are shown. On March 19, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio is 2.03 [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. On March 19, the basis of CSI 300 is - 3.35 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 25.2 [52]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For corn, short - term price is driven by tight front - end supply and concentrated replenishment demand from the consumer end. In the long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies due to supply gap [2]. - For starch, short - term price remains strong due to limited raw material supply and strong price - holding intention of deep - processing enterprises. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor [3]. - For sugar, the international market's fundamentals are slightly stronger with India's production cut and ISO's global surplus reduction. The domestic market is volatile and strong, with cost - effective imports and hedging pressure [6]. - For cotton, low initial inventory offsets production increase. With growing textile output, good downstream profits, consumption - promoting policies, and good exports, demand is expected to improve, and it's suitable for long - term long positions [9]. - For eggs, slow culling of hens postpones supply pressure, and rising feed costs compress profits. Suggest an anti - spread strategy for 05 and 06 contracts [13]. - For apples, the market shows a pattern of strong in the west and stable in the east. Good - quality apples in Shaanxi are in short supply, while Shandong's market is stable. Sales in the consumer market are slow [16]. - For pigs, short - term supply is loose, with limited capacity reduction and inventory pressure. Futures are at a premium, and attention should be paid to factors like出栏体重, second - fattening entry, and frozen product storage [16]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From March 13 - 19, corn prices in Changchun remained at 2230, with a 10 - unit drop in Jinzhou. Starch prices in Heilongjiang stayed at 2900, and in Weifang, it increased by 20 [2]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price is driven by supply - demand mismatch, and long - term focus is on policies. Starch price is strong due to limited raw material supply [2][3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From March 13 - 19, sugar prices in Liuzhou remained at 5470 - 5500, with minor changes in Nanning and Kunming. Import profits and basis also changed [6]. - **Analysis**: International fundamentals are stronger, and the domestic market is affected by import policies and hedging pressure [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From March 13 - 19, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 70, and there were changes in other related indicators [17]. - **Analysis**: Low initial inventory and good demand prospects make cotton suitable for long - term long positions [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From March 13 - 19, egg prices in some areas remained stable, with a decrease in basis and changes in substitute prices [13]. - **Analysis**: Slow culling and rising feed costs lead to an anti - spread strategy suggestion [13]. Apples - **Price Data**: From March 13 - 19, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900, and there were changes in basis [15][16]. - **Analysis**: The market shows a west - strong and east - stable pattern, with slow sales in the consumer market [16]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From March 13 - 19, pig prices in some areas decreased slightly, and basis increased by 90 [16]. - **Analysis**: Short - term supply is loose, and futures are affected by expectations [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - For sugar, due to the current situation where raw sugar prices are continuously at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price, and with the increase in crude oil prices caused by geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar production from sugarcane in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year, leading to a potential sugar production reduction. In the domestic market, as the sugar - cane crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. Coupled with potential future benefits from raw sugar, sugar prices may still have room for a rebound. It is advisable to try to go long on price pullbacks [3]. - For cotton, the newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is a short - term negative factor for Zhengzhou cotton prices. In the medium term, the current downstream operating rate has returned to the same level as last year, which is a neutral situation. The subsequent price trend mainly depends on the downstream operating situation, so it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [6]. - For protein meal, the March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, crude oil prices fluctuate sharply in the short term, driving significant fluctuations in protein meal prices. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [9]. - For oils and fats, affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, the sharp increase in short - term crude oil prices drives the strengthening of oils and fats prices. On the other hand, before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices remain at a high level, and there is an expectation that Indonesia will tighten palm oil exports. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view on oils and fats in the medium term [12]. - For eggs, although the egg - laying capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. There is an expectation of a delayed supply. On the other hand, the spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. This makes the near - month valuation of the futures market seem relatively high. It is advisable to maintain the idea of short - selling on rebounds in the near - term, and pay attention to the support brought by rising cost factors in the long - term [14]. - For live pigs, considering that the weight and theoretical slaughter volume are still relatively high, although the inventory of small - scale farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is not high under the current price difference between fat and standard pigs, so the support for the market is limited. In the short term, the spot price may remain weakly stable. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot price due to the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the increase in feed prices. The near - term futures market maintains a premium structure, and it is advisable to short - sell on rebounds. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction, but the upward drive of the spot price is insufficient, resulting in an excessively high premium. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each compared to the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. In February, the cumulative sugar production in the country was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons. The monthly sugar sales volume was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons. The industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. According to the prediction of the International Sugar Organization (ISO) at the end of February, due to the lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season is expected to be 181.29 million tons [2]. - **Strategy View**: There is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar production from sugarcane in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year, leading to a potential sugar production reduction. In the domestic market, as the sugar - cane crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. Coupled with potential future benefits from raw sugar, sugar prices may still have room for a rebound. It is advisable to try to go long on price pullbacks [3]. Cotton - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to February 2026, China imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton processing trade import quota with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. From February 26 to March 5, the current - year cotton export sales in the United States were 35,800 tons, with a cumulative export sales of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons; among them, the export to China in that week was 1,800 tons, with a cumulative export to China of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons. As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. In the March prediction, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was 26.34 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons compared to the February prediction and an increase of 540,000 tons compared to the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points compared to the February prediction and an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared to the previous season. Among them, the predicted production in the United States in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February prediction, the export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, the same as the previous level. The predicted production in Brazil increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; the predicted production in India remained at 5.12 million tons; the predicted production in China increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [4]. - **Strategy View**: The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is a short - term negative factor for Zhengzhou cotton prices. In the medium term, the current downstream operating rate has returned to the same level as last year, which is a neutral situation. The subsequent price trend mainly depends on the downstream operating situation, so it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [6]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: S&P Global's latest forecast shows that the corn planting area in the United States in 2026 will reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January. The predicted soybean planting area in the United States in 2026 is raised to 85 million acres, higher than the 84.5 million acres predicted in January. From February 26 to March 5, the United States exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, and the cumulative export of soybeans in the current year was 36.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons; among them, the export of soybeans to China in that week was 80,000 tons, and the cumulative export of soybeans to China in the current year was 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons. As of the week of March 13, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 15.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons. In the March prediction, the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season was 42.717 million tons, a decrease of 990,000 tons compared to the February prediction and an increase of 28,000 tons compared to the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points compared to February and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous season. Among them, the predicted soybean production in the United States was 11.599 million tons, the same as the February prediction; the predicted production in Brazil was 18 million tons, the same as the February prediction; the predicted production in Argentina was 4.8 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared to the February prediction. In addition, in the March prediction, the predicted export volume of the United States remained at 4.286 million tons [8]. - **Strategy View**: The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, crude oil prices fluctuate sharply in the short term, driving significant fluctuations in protein meal prices. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [9]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The President of Indonesia stated that coal, crude palm oil and its derivatives production enterprises in Indonesia are not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand to ensure national energy and important commodity supply security. According to data released by the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from March 1 to 15, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia stated that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. According to data from the Indonesian Bureau of Statistics, the total export volume of palm oil in Indonesia in January 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 860,000 tons compared to the same period last year. According to data released by MPOB, the palm oil production in Malaysia in February was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 90,000 tons compared to the same period last year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 130,000 tons compared to the same period last year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 1.19 million tons compared to the same period last year. According to data released by AmSpec, the export volume of palm oil products in Malaysia from March 1 to 15, 2026 was 921,000 tons, a 56.9% increase compared to the same period last month. According to data released by ITS, the export volume of palm oil products in Malaysia from March 1 to 15, 2026 was 926,000 tons, a 43.5% increase compared to the same period last month. According to data released by the Indian Refiners Association (SEA), as of the end of February, the inventory of vegetable oils in India was 1.87 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons compared to the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. According to MYSTEEL data, in the week of March 13, the inventory of the three major domestic sample oils was 2.01 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons [11]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, the sharp increase in short - term crude oil prices drives the strengthening of oils and fats prices. On the other hand, before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices remain at a high level, and there is an expectation that Indonesia will tighten palm oil exports. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view on oils and fats in the medium term [12]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the egg prices across the country were stable with some increases. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas increased by 0.02 yuan to 3.19 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained unchanged at 3 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.09 yuan to 3.07 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed varied, most traders were quite confident about the future market, the inventory at each link was appropriate, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's egg prices across the country may be mostly stable with a few increases [13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the egg - laying capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. There is an expectation of a delayed supply. On the other hand, the spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. This makes the near - month valuation of the futures market seem relatively high. It is advisable to maintain the idea of short - selling on rebounds in the near - term, and pay attention to the support brought by rising cost factors in the long - term [14]. Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to decline generally. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.07 yuan to 10.02 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.08 yuan to 9.91 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi decreased by 0.15 yuan to 9.76 yuan per kilogram. The breeding side had a strong willingness to sell, and the price - holding mentality of the breeding side in most areas weakened. It is expected that today's pig prices may continue to decline [15]. - **Strategy View**: Considering that the weight and theoretical slaughter volume are still relatively high, although the inventory of small - scale farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is not high under the current price difference between fat and standard pigs, so the support for the market is limited. In the short term, the spot price may remain weakly stable. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot price due to the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the increase in feed prices. The near - term futures market maintains a premium structure, and it is advisable to short - sell on rebounds. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction, but the upward drive of the spot price is insufficient, resulting in an excessively high premium. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to seek support at 4,500 ringgit, and domestic palm oil may decline to 9,500 yuan. US biodiesel policy is awaited, and domestic soybean oil may oscillate above 8,500 yuan. Vegetable oil market has positive factors, and rapeseed oil needs to watch for capital movements. [1] Cotton - ICE cotton futures are under pressure from a stronger dollar. US cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend. Domestic cotton has a bearish factor realized, and short - term prices will remain high and volatile. [2] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures reached a seven - week high. Global sugar supply surplus is expected to narrow. Domestic sugar prices are supported but limited by weak sales data and increased imports, and will maintain high - level volatility. [4] Red Dates - In the off - season, the inventory reduction pressure is large. Red date futures prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. [5][9] Apples - The apple spot market shows structural differentiation. Cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, supporting the futures price. Attention should be paid to Qingming replenishment, ordinary fruit de - stocking, and weather changes. [13][17] Corn - Corn prices in the Northeast are stable, and those in North China are steady. Demand from ports and deep - processing enterprises is recovering, but feed enterprises' demand is weak. Corn prices will remain high and volatile. [20][22] Meal - The US soybean market is回调, but the decline is limited. Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain high - level volatility, waiting for the planting intention report. [24] Pigs - Slaughter volume is increasing, but the supply is large. The market is waiting for a lower entry point. Futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out. [27] Eggs - Egg supply may decline slightly, and demand is average. Egg prices will maintain a low - level volatile pattern. [29] Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On March 18, compared with March 17, soybean oil spot price decreased by 0.23%, futures price decreased by 1.20%, and basis increased by 40.78%. Palm oil spot price decreased by 1.62%, futures price decreased by 2.63%, and basis increased by 134.21%. Rapeseed oil spot price decreased by 0.60%, futures price decreased by 0.54%, and basis decreased by 2.02%. [1] Cotton - **Futures Market**: Cotton 2605 decreased by 1.74%, and 2609 decreased by 1.61%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26.67%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.98%. [2] - **Spot Market**: Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index 3128B increased, while FC Index M 1% increased significantly. The basis of 3128B - 05 and 3128B - 09 increased. [2] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, and imports increased by 49.5%. [2] Sugar - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2605 decreased by 1.17%, and 2609 decreased by 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 10.00%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.00%. [4] - **Spot Market**: Nanning and Kunming spot prices decreased, and the basis increased. Imported sugar prices increased. [4] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased by 4.69%, sales decreased by 27.39%, and industrial inventory increased by 17.03%. [4] Red Dates - **Futures Market**: Red date 2605 decreased by 2.55%, 2607 decreased by 2.61%, and 2609 decreased by 2.50%. The 5 - 7 spread increased by 5.41%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.33%. The open interest decreased by 6.05%. [5] - **Spot Market**: Cangzhou spot prices remained stable, and the basis increased. [5] Apples - **Futures Market**: Apple 2605 increased by 0.03%, and 2610 increased by 0.24%. The 5 - 10 spread decreased by 1.33%. The open interest increased by 1.59%. [13] - **Spot Market**: The basis decreased by 6.35%. [13] - **Industry Situation**: National cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.27%. [13] Corn - **Corn**: The 2605 price decreased by 0.17%, the basis increased by 16.67%, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged. The north - south trade profit decreased by 34.48%. [20] - **Corn Starch**: The 2605 price decreased by 0.33%, the basis increased by 386.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged. [20] Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price increased by 0.30%, the futures price decreased by 1.11%, and the basis increased by 17.60%. The import crushing profit decreased by 23.3%. [24] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price decreased by 0.75%, the futures price decreased by 1.69%, and the basis increased by 11.28%. The import crushing profit decreased by 75.34%. [24] Pigs - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 706.25%, the 2605 price decreased by 2.06%, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 76.70%. The open interest increased by 1.13%. [27] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in various regions decreased slightly. [27] - **Industry Situation**: Slaughter volume increased by 0.80%, the white - striped pork price decreased by 3.01%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 18.98%. [27] Eggs - **Futures Market**: The 04 contract increased by 0.65%, and the 05 contract increased by 0.53%. The 4 - 5 spread increased by 2.34%. [29] - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.80%, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, and the culled - hen price increased by 5.26%. [29] - **Industry Situation**: The egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 9.00%, and the breeding profit decreased by 249.92%. [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The USDA has raised global corn and wheat production forecasts while lowering soybean production estimates for the 2025/26 season [1] - Global corn production is projected to reach 1.297 billion tons, an increase of 6.685 million tons from the previous year, with a slight decrease in consumption [5] - Global wheat production is expected to rise to 842.12 million tons, with an increase in consumption and a slight decrease in ending stocks [5] - Global soybean production is forecasted to decrease to 427 million tons, with a reduction in both consumption and ending stocks [5] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for 2025/26 is estimated at 1.297 billion tons, up 6.685 million tons from 2024/25, with consumption at 1.3 billion tons, an increase of 5.049 million tons but a decrease of 780,000 tons from the previous forecast [12] - Ending stocks are projected at 293 million tons, down 3.07 million tons from 2024/25, with a stock-to-use ratio of 19.4%, the lowest since 2015/16 [12][21] - In China, corn production is expected to be 301 million tons, with imports of 8 million tons, and a domestic consumption of 321 million tons [21] Wheat - Global wheat production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 842.12 million tons, an increase of 41.69 million tons from the previous year, with consumption rising to 824.8 million tons [32] - Ending stocks are projected at 276.96 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio of 26.5%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous year [32][34] - The global wheat export volume is expected to reach 222.16 million tons, an increase of 11.69 million tons from 2024/25 [32] Soybeans - Global soybean production for 2025/26 is estimated at 427 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous year, with consumption at 424 million tons [5] - Ending stocks are projected at 125 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio of 20.5%, showing a decline from the previous year [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information regarding industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, and domestic economic recovery. Different sectors show various trends, and investors are advised to take different strategies according to the specific situation of each sector [6][9][12] - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, and the market expects cautious monetary policy. The Middle - East conflict has a significant impact on the market, increasing uncertainty and volatility [6] 3. Summary by Directory Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - The previous trading day saw all treasury bond futures close higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank conducted 205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 60 billion yuan on the day [5] - The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and the Middle - East conflict have increased the uncertainty of the US economy. The domestic macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond market is expected to face certain pressure, so it is advisable to be cautious [6] Equity Index Futures - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 main contracts changed by 0.14%, - 0.38%, 0.77%, and 0.68% respectively [8] - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, asset valuations are low, and there is room for repair. The policy environment is favorable, but the Iran situation has high uncertainty, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [9] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts decline by 0.24% and 1.62% respectively. The US February PPI data exceeded expectations [11] - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term logic of precious metals is strong. However, due to the high market pricing and the uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [12] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day saw rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuate. The Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the long - term, the real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is decreasing. In the medium - term, it is necessary to focus on the peak season. The supply pressure has been alleviated, and prices may rebound but with limited space. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [14] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw iron ore futures fluctuate. The Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. After the key meeting, the daily output of molten iron may increase, which is positive for prices. The inventory is at a high level in the past five years. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures decline slightly. The Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, and the demand may increase. The prices of coke and coking coal are in a volatile pattern, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [19] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts decline by 1.51% and 2.19% respectively. The cost of ferroalloys is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the supply is still in a surplus state. After a rapid price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [21][22] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of oil and gas rigs in the US increased. The conflict between the US and Iran has intensified, and the global crude oil supply shortage is still a concern. Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the main crude - oil contract [23][24] Polyolefins - The previous trading day saw the PP market in Hangzhou decline, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao adjust. In the short - term, polyolefins show a contraction trend. In the long - term, the import volume may decrease in April, but new production capacity is planned to be put into operation at home and abroad, and the supply pressure will gradually increase. The demand shows the characteristics of "rising production but cautious purchasing". Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [26] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract decline by 1.62%. The cost support has weakened. The supply pressure is high in the short - term, and the demand is affected by the Middle - East conflict. The inventory has changed from accumulation to depletion. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile pattern [28][29] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw the natural - rubber main contract decline by 2.55%, and the 20 - rubber main contract decline by 2.67%. The Middle - East conflict has increased the cost of synthetic rubber, which strengthens the substitution demand for natural rubber. However, the expectation of new - rubber supply and slow demand recovery suppress the price increase. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [31] PVC - The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract decline by 1.31%. The market is driven by overseas geopolitical conflicts and domestic spring demand. The cost support is strong in the short - term, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile pattern [34] Urea - The previous trading day saw the urea main contract decline by 1.70%. The market is facing high supply and policy restrictions. The demand is weak, and the export is strictly controlled. The price is expected to be in a weak volatile pattern, with limited downward space [36] PX - The previous trading day saw the PX2605 main contract decline by 0.42%. The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed. The PX supply is expected to be tight, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to be in a slightly strong volatile pattern, and investors can consider cautious long - entry at low positions [37] PTA - The previous trading day saw the PTA2605 main contract decline by 0.76%. The PTA processing fee has been adjusted, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March. The price is mainly affected by the cost. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, investors can consider cautious long - entry at low positions [38] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw the ethylene - glycol main contract rise by 1.11%, and the night - session rise by 8.73%. The supply is expected to decrease due to the Middle - East conflict, and the inventory is expected to be depleted. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile pattern [39] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2606 main contract decline by 0.39%. The supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal demand is recovering. The price is mainly affected by the cost. Investors should pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [40] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw the bottle - chips 2605 main contract decline by 2.35%. The processing fee has increased significantly, and the supply is expected to decrease. The demand is recovering, and the price is expected to follow the cost and be in a volatile pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the restart of the maintenance device and cost changes [41] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw the 2605 main contract close at 1211 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.57%. The production is stable, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is weak. The market sentiment is weak, but the decline in the number of warehouse receipts may lead to market fluctuations. Investors should control risks [42][43] Glass - The previous trading day saw the 2605 main contract close at 1066 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.74%. The production line is shrinking, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand is recovering slowly. The market is in a state of high - level long - short game, and the price is volatile. Investors should control positions and pay attention to the Middle - East situation and fundamental changes [44] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw the 2605 main contract close at 2442 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.01%. The supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. The price of high - concentration caustic soda is rising due to export orders. The market may fluctuate due to the decline in the number of warehouse receipts. Investors should pay attention to overseas device dynamics, export orders, inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [45][46] Pulp - The previous trading day saw the 2605 main contract close at 5040 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.10%. The domestic production may decrease, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the market lacks substantial positive support [47][48] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw the lithium - carbonate main contract decline by 4.43%. The global lithium - resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply is expected to be tight. The demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has strong support, but the short - term volatility may increase [49] Copper - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai copper main contract close at 96340 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.58%. The geopolitical conflict has increased inflation expectations, and the supply pressure is high in the short - term. The downstream demand has recovered to some extent, but the high inventory and macro - pressure may lead to a weak volatile pattern [50][51] Aluminum - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai aluminum main contract close at 24835 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alumina main contract rose by 0.85%. The supply pressure of alumina is high, and the Middle - East conflict has increased the cost. The supply is expected to tighten, and the domestic consumption is recovering. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile pattern [53] Zinc - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc main contract close at 23000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.84%. The domestic supply has increased, and the overseas supply is disturbed. The demand is expected to recover, but the actual recovery strength needs to be verified. The inventory is increasing, and the price may be under pressure and in a volatile pattern [55] Lead - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai lead main contract close at 16585 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.57%. The production of primary lead has increased, and the recovery of secondary lead is slow. The demand for lead - acid batteries has recovered, but the geopolitical risk affects exports. The inventory is increasing, and the price may be under pressure and adjust [57] Tin - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai tin main contract decline by 3.39%. The geopolitical conflict has increased price volatility. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand in emerging fields is strong. The inventory has decreased, and the price has support, but investors should control risks due to overseas uncertainties [59][60] Nickel - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai nickel main contract decline by 0.69%. The geopolitical conflict has increased price volatility. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight, and the cost is rising. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The market is in a surplus state, and investors should pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [61] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw the soybean - meal main contract decline by 0.26%, and the soybean - oil main contract decline by 0.93%. The Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, and the crude - oil price rise provides support. The domestic soybean import is slowing down, and the supply may be tight in the short - term, but it is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East conflict [62][63] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm - oil market has declined for two consecutive days. The export demand in April is a concern. The domestic palm - oil import has increased, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. Investors can consider reducing or closing long positions [64][65] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures have declined. The domestic import policy has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal has decreased, while the inventory of rapeseed oil has increased. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [66][67] Cotton - The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures decline slightly, and the overseas market fluctuated. The global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long - term, and the price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile pattern [69][70] Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic sugar futures decline slightly, and the overseas market rose. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the import volume is high. The overseas sugar production is lower than expected, and the crude - oil price rise is beneficial to the sugar price. The long - term sugar price bottom may rise [71][72] Apple - The previous trading day saw apple futures fluctuate strongly. The spot market is stable, and it is in the consumption off - season. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The market is expected to be stable and strong, and investors should pay attention to inventory reduction and weather conditions [73] Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw the main contract decline by 2.29%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The government has started the purchase and storage mechanism, but the short - term effect may be limited. It is advisable to hold short positions [74][75] Eggs - The previous trading day saw the main contract rise by 0.29%. The egg supply is expected to be at a high level in March, and the long - term supply improvement is uncertain. It is advisable to hold short positions in the far - month contracts [76] Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day saw the corn main contract rise by 0.08%, and the corn - starch main contract decline by 0.51%. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced. The new - season corn cost may be revised down, and the wheat substitution effect may increase. The corn - starch demand has recovered slightly, and the price may follow the corn market. Investors can pay attention to put - option opportunities [77][79] Logs - The previous trading day saw the 2605 main contract close at 806.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.68%. The supply of New Zealand logs has increased, and the downstream demand has improved. The cost pressure has increased, and the market is in a high - level volatile pattern. Investors should pay attention to external quotes, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [80][82]