Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is basically stable. After the production cut in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is poor, with increasing production, declining consumption, and rising inventory. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened and closed at 8910 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton ( - 0.50%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2601 main contract was 193,019 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 7,228 lots, an increase of 336 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. The social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on December 4 was 558,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week [1] Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price continued to rise this week, with the mainstream price range at 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton, about 450 yuan/ton higher than the average price of the previous week [2] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and it is advisable to go long on contracts during the dry season at low prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 57,270 yuan/ton and closing at 56,915 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 116,653 lots, and the trading volume was 175,576 lots. The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, with the polysilicon inventory at 291,000 tons (a month - on - month change of 3.38%) and the silicon wafer inventory at 21.30 GW (a month - on - month change of 9.23%). The weekly production of polysilicon was 25,800 tons (a month - on - month change of 7.50%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.95 GW (a month - on - month change of - 0.58%) [4] - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September. In November, the production in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 and 57,000 yuan/ton [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil still faces inventory pressure, with difficulties in inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the tone of important meetings [2]. - The overall inventory of iron ore remains high, and there is no sign of effectively resolving the inventory structural contradiction. The impact of macro - pricing will gradually strengthen in December [5]. - For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to make rebounds rather than continue to short, as macro factors are more important [9][10]. - Industrial silicon shows a short - term weak operation with a supply - demand weak pattern and limited marginal changes [13]. - Polysilicon faces challenges in reducing inventory pressure before the Chinese New Year, and there are risks in the near - month contract due to delivery games [15]. - The glass industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, with the supply - demand contradiction not effectively resolved, and the market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, but it should still be viewed bearishly before the demand improves [20]. Summary by Category Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3175 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.189%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 441,41 tons, unchanged. The main contract position increased by 114,799 lots to 1,411,905 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3332 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.391%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,732 tons, unchanged. The main contract position increased by 492,093 lots to 1,034,595 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - This week, rebar production declined significantly, inventory continued to decrease, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coil production decreased, apparent demand was neutral, inventory reduction was difficult, and the social inventory level was high. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.50 yuan/ton, down 0.63% (- 5.00). The position decreased by 41,114 lots to 293,700 lots. The weighted position was 949,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.96 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.69% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline of Rio Tinto and FMG shipments. Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 232.3 tons, down 2.38 tons. The number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts, and annual inspections increased. The steel mill profitability rate rebounded slightly after continuous decline, but less than 40% of steel mills were profitable. In the inventory aspect, port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory increased slightly. Overall, the iron ore inventory is still high, and there is no sign of resolving the inventory structural contradiction [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 4, affected by the increase in settlement electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia and the sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys rebounded significantly. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.87% at 5796 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 114 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 1.84% at 5546 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The market sentiment has improved, but there is still differentiation among commodity sectors. The black sector is weak, and ferroalloys are also affected by the weak coking coal sentiment. It is not necessary to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of macro - events in December on market sentiment is worth expecting. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to make rebounds. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, but it is difficult for its own fundamentals to drive the price down significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and the operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8910 yuan/ton, down 0.11% (- 10). The weighted position increased by 12,668 lots to 413,311 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 440 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 90 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 56,915 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (- 515). The weighted position decreased by 1,608 lots to 276,578 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was - 4615 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon shows short - term weak operation. The weekly output continues to decline, and the marginal decline has slowed down significantly. The demand from polysilicon in December is weakening, the demand from organic silicon is stable in the short term, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy has increased, but the export has decreased significantly in October. The cost support is stable, and the supply - demand pattern has limited marginal changes [13]. - The production of polysilicon in December is expected to continue to decline, but the decline may be limited due to the capacity ramp - up in some northwest bases. The downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease significantly, and the inventory pressure before the Chinese New Year is difficult to relieve. The downstream prices are weak, while the upstream silicon enterprises still maintain high prices. The near - month contract has high risks due to delivery games, and attention should be paid to the final establishment of the platform company [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1010 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 0.98% (- 10). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1110 yuan, down 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million cases, down 2.92 million cases (- 4.68%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,182 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 23,024 lots [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 0.26% (- 3). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1132 yuan, down 3 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5386 million tons, down 48,800 tons (- 4.68%), including 810,800 tons of heavy soda ash inventory, down 36,000 tons, and 727,800 tons of light soda ash inventory, down 12,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 14,611 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 19,616 lots [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply of glass has decreased due to the cold - repair of production lines by many enterprises last week, and the market sentiment has briefly improved, but the overall spot market trading is still light, and the manufacturers still face great pressure in shipping. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the futures price has rebounded due to short - covering. The industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream orders and the implementation of cold - repair production lines [18]. - The production capacity of soda ash has increased slightly due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled devices. The mainstream market supply meets the demand, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Light soda ash supply is locally tight, and the demand is relatively stable. Heavy soda ash demand is weak due to the decline in the glass industry. The soda ash price remains stable in the short term, but it should be viewed bearishly before the demand improves [20].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Mainly weak operation [1] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the fermentation of news [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also reports on a key project milestone in the polysilicon industry. The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2601 (industrial silicon) closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from T - 1, 100 yuan from T - 5, and 220 yuan from T - 22. PS2601 (polysilicon) closed at 57,705 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from T - 1 and 4,390 yuan from T - 5 [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +580 yuan/ton, and polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 5430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,350 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,349.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,596 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit was 7.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 550,000 tons, enterprise inventory was 180,000 tons, and industry inventory was 730,000 tons. Polysilicon factory inventory was 281,000 tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 320 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Wash - cleaned coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,475 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 400,000 - volt substation of the Oman United Solar Polysilicon Project, EPC - contracted by China Energy Construction Shanxi Electric Power Engineering Company, was successfully connected to the grid, marking a breakthrough in the project's construction [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 04 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 下游承压价格走弱，多晶硅基本面表现仍较弱 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-03，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8955元/吨，最后收于8920元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（-145）元/吨，变化（-1.60）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓193926手，2025-12-03仓单总数为6892手，较前 一日变化108手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9700-9900 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 根据SMM调研，南北地区工业硅开工率分化，川滇硅企继续枯水期减产节奏开工率延续下行趋势。北方个别硅企 有增开或复产开工率上行。增减变化之下预计12月工业硅产量或基本持平于11月。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13200-13500（150）元/吨。SMM报道，在单体企业减排和持续挺价预期 背景下，刺激 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251204：上方承压 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/12/4 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,920.00 | -0.61% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 430.00 | 55.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 57,430.00 | 1.98% | | 元/吨 | 基差 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | -6,430.00 9,350.00 | -1,115.00 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 有色金属类 铜： 隔夜内外铜价大幅拉升，均创历史新高，国内精铜现货进口亏损扩大。宏观方面，美国11月ADP就业人 数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，劳动力市场疲软迹象正在显现；但美国11月份ISM服务业 PMI指数升至52.6，创九个月来新高，预期52.0，服务业指数受到供应商交付时间延长以及商业活动进 一步改善的支撑。国内方面，关注即将召开的中央经济工作会议。库存方面，LME库存增加350吨至 162150吨；Comex库存增加2127吨至393979吨；SHFE铜仓单下降1599吨至28969吨；BC铜仓单维系 4879吨。昨晚LME铜注册仓单大量转为注销仓单，被市场认为即将大量被提货的表现，佐证投资者对 未来铜价的看好，也凸显了LME库存紧张和全球显性库存结构性问题，成为内外铜价联袂创新高的理 由。当前来看，短期的宏观和基本面问题已然被精矿短缺、长协高升水和库存流动性问题所取代，市场 情绪也逐渐朝着外盘挤仓演进，表现或持续偏强，关注持续性。 镍&不锈钢： 隔夜LME镍涨0.92%报14875美元/吨，沪镍跌0.02%报117 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent registration of new warehouse receipts and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises [1]. - For polysilicon, the downstream replenishment willingness is limited, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue to rise, which suppresses the upside space of the futures price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon increased by 0.51% to 9,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.86% to 8,975 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: In terms of supply, the suspension of production of silicon enterprises in the southwest production period has basically been implemented, and the start - up is at a low level within the year. The start - up in the north is relatively stable, and it is expected that the industrial silicon output will fluctuate slightly around 400,000 tons in December. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, silicone enterprises have reached a joint production reduction mechanism, which may reduce the demand for industrial silicon, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at a low level is limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The trading strategy is range - bound operation [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg compared with the previous day, the price of N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 52.35 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg, the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 2.41% to 56,315 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some polysilicon plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, it is expected that the output will still increase slightly in October, but the output in November will decrease to about 120,000 tons month - on - month. On the demand side, the prices of the industrial chain are under pressure to decline. Although the polysilicon price is still strong, the market transactions are relatively light, there are few new transactions, and the downstream has a strong resistance to high - price resources [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being [1]. India's Photovoltaic Market Information - **New - installed Capacity Forecast**: JK Research predicts that India will add about 41.5GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in the fiscal year 2026 (the 12 - month period ending on March 31, 2026), including about 32GW in large - scale power station projects, about 8GW in rooftop photovoltaics, and about 1.5GW in off - grid systems. From January to September 2025, India added about 22.5GW of large - scale photovoltaic installed capacity, a year - on - year increase of 70.3%, and about 5.8GW of rooftop photovoltaic installed capacity, a year - on - year increase of 81.6%. It is expected that about 15.68GW of large - scale photovoltaic projects will be connected to the grid from October 2025 to March 2026 [1]. - **Top Developers**: As of September 30, 2025, the top five developers in India in terms of cumulative installed and under - construction project capacity are Adani (40.5GW), ReNew (22.9GW), NTPC (16.9GW), Greenko (15.4GW), and JSW Energy (15.12GW) [1]. - **Inverter Supply**: In the third quarter of 2025 (July - September), India added 8.06GW of large - scale photovoltaic installed capacity and 2.7GW of rooftop photovoltaic installed capacity. In terms of inverter supply, Sungrow ranked first with a supply of 3.76GW, TBEA followed closely with a supply of 3.1GW, and Sineng ranked third with a supply of 2.6GW [1].