Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon fundamentals have little change, with overall supply and demand basically balanced. It is expected to fluctuate following the overall commodity sentiment. The polysilicon market has a large - scale correction, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [2][4][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 9, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weak. The main contract 2511 opened at 8555 yuan/ton and closed at 8410 yuan/ton, a change of - 135 yuan/ton (- 1.58%) from the previous settlement. The main contract 2511 held 286040 positions, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49955, a change of 33 from the previous day [2] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable. Due to a 400 - yuan/ton increase in coal prices, the price of bonding silicon coal in Xinjiang rose by about 270 yuan/ton to 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton [2] - **Consumption Side**: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 10500 - 10800 yuan/ton. Due to the non - appearance of the traditional "Golden September" peak season effect and the on - demand procurement strategy, the demand release was not concentrated, and the DMC price rebound faced resistance. In the short term, the domestic DMC price will mainly fluctuate slightly [3] Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 9, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 had a large - scale correction, opening at 55555 yuan/ton and closing at 53520 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.73% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 142980 positions (154011 in the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 584927 [5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon slightly declined. The price of N - type material was 49.20 - 54.00 yuan/kg (- 0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 21.10, a change of - 0.90% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.85GW, a change of - 6.65% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 30200.00 tons, a change of - 2.58% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer production was 13.78GW, a change of 3.53% week - on - week [5] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.28 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.63 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.40 yuan/piece [5] - **Battery Cell**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [6] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Cross - period**: None - **Cross - variety**: None - **Spot - futures**: None - **Options**: None [4] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation - **Cross - period**: None - **Cross - variety**: None - **Spot - futures**: None - **Options**: None [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, but there is a risk of a price decline if polysilicon enterprises implement production restrictions. The polysilicon price is likely to be volatile and prone to rising, with supply-side disturbances remaining unstable [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) also remained flat at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.58% to 8,820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing steadily as some silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and businesses in the southwest are operating more due to lower electricity costs. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, with some having复产 plans, which will bring some demand. However, the organic silicon market is facing supply pressure, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises are purchasing as needed [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The industrial silicon market has strengthened recently due to polysilicon sentiment. It is expected that the short-term silicon price will maintain high-level consolidation, but if polysilicon enterprises implement production restrictions, it will be negative for the industrial silicon market [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The prices of N-type dense material, N-type re-feeding material, and N-type mixed material increased by 0.20%, 0.19%, and 0.20% respectively, while the price of N-type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 8.70% to 56,735 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly as some silicon material factories may have new production capacity, but demand has also increased as many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipments by the end of August, reducing inventory [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The polysilicon market has been rising recently due to rumors of state purchases. In the short term, supply-side disturbances may cause price fluctuations, and the price is likely to rise [1]. Other Information - **Industry News**: Southern Co's subsidiary, Georgia Power, has been approved to sign five new solar power purchase agreements with a total capacity of 1,068 megawatts. It has also launched a tender for up to 2,000 megawatts of utility-scale solar or "solar + energy storage" projects [1]. - **Company Announcement**: Daquan Energy's General Manager, Zhu Wengang, stated that the company will continue its production reduction strategy in the third quarter, with a production guidance of 27,000 to 30,000 tons, and an annual production guidance of 110,000 to 130,000 tons in 2025 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Bearish / Polysilicon: Bearish [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. Short - term industrial silicon may operate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities. For polysilicon, although the spot dense material quotation has risen to 55 yuan/kg, the actual transaction price is likely to be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg. After the sharp rise in the futures market stimulated by the "anti - involution" news, the futures have a large premium over the spot, which may stimulate the hedging willingness of silicon material enterprises again. The upward space of polysilicon is limited, while the downward space is opened. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback opportunity, and the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity can be considered at around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial silicon/polysilicon industry chain prices - This week, the Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 430 yuan/ton to 8820 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - passing 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9100 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 8500 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 7180 yuan/ton to 56735 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re -投料 increased by 1100 yuan/ton to 49000 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 "Anti - involution" news stimulates significant premium in the futures market - **Industrial silicon**: The main futures contract of industrial silicon fluctuated downward this week. The number of open furnaces in Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Northeast decreased by 3, 1, and 1 respectively. The resumption volume of large factories in Xinjiang was less than expected, and the southern start - up was basically stable. Some silicon factories may start to reduce production during the dry season in late October. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.40 million tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons. Downstream maintained rigid demand procurement without stockpiling. If the start - up of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, industrial silicon may accumulate about 30,000 tons of inventory from September to October and may reduce inventory by about 100,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. If large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to reduce inventory during the dry season [11] - **Organic silicon**: The price of organic silicon decreased slightly this week. Some devices were shut down or under maintenance, and the weekly start - up rate changed little. The overall start - up rate of enterprises was 73.47%, the weekly output was 48,600 tons, an increase of 1.04%, and the inventory was 48,400 tons, a decrease of 1.83%. New orders increased slightly, and the market activity increased slightly. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate at a low level [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The main futures contract of polysilicon rose significantly this week. Polysilicon production and sales restrictions officially started in September, and the production schedule in September is still around 128,000 tons. Attention should be paid to whether the production will further decline to the quota level. As of September 4, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 211,000 tons, mainly concentrated in two first - tier enterprises. Silicon wafer enterprises' polysilicon raw material inventory reached 200,000 tons. Silicon material enterprises continued to raise prices, but downstream enterprises were resistant to high - priced silicon materials. It is expected that the transaction price of dense material in September will be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg [13] - **Silicon wafers**: The quotation of silicon wafers was further raised this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers remained at 1.25/1.40/1.60 yuan/piece, but the quotations of M10/G12 were further raised to 1.30/1.65 yuan/piece. As of September 4, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 16.85GW, and the production schedule in September was 57.5GW. It is expected that silicon wafers will stabilize at the new quotation in the short term [14] - **Battery cells**: The price of battery cells further increased this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells rose to 0.3/0.295 yuan/watt, while that of G12R remained at 0.285 yuan/watt. As of September 1, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.81GW, and the production schedule in September was 60GW. The price increase of silicon wafers put pressure on battery cells. It is expected that the price of battery cells will remain stable in the short term [15] - **Components**: The price of components remained basically stable this week. Centralized components mainly executed previous orders, and distributed projects executed more new orders. The upstream price increase was not smoothly transmitted to the terminal. It is expected that the component price will fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are demand - side policy introductions [16][17] 3.3 Investment advice - **Industrial silicon**: Pay attention to the follow - up progress of large factories' resumption in Xinjiang. Short - term industrial silicon may operate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and pay attention to range - trading opportunities [18] - **Polysilicon**: The actual transaction price of dense material is likely to be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg. After the sharp rise in the futures market, the futures have a large premium over the spot, which may stimulate the hedging willingness of silicon material enterprises. The upward space of polysilicon is limited, and the downward space is opened. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback opportunity, and the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity can be considered at around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3.4 Hot news sorting - **China Anneng's component purchase project change**: The original 0.66 yuan/W component price limit was invalid. The tender scale was changed from 2GW to 200MW, and the tender model was changed. The new tender does not set a price limit [19] - **Two - department policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued a plan to govern the low - price competition of photovoltaic products according to law, strengthen the monitoring and early warning of key industries, and guide the orderly layout of the photovoltaic and lithium - battery industries [19] 3.5 Industrial chain high - frequency data tracking - **Industrial silicon**: It includes data such as the spot price of oxygen - passing 553 and 99 silicon, weekly output in different regions, and social and factory inventories [21][24][28] - **Organic silicon**: It includes data such as the spot price of DMC, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output [31][32] - **Polysilicon**: It includes data such as the spot price, weekly gross profit, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly output [36][37] - **Silicon wafers**: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly output [38][40][43] - **Battery cells**: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, export factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output [44][46][50] - **Components**: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output [53][58][60]

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming "2025 China Silicon Industry Conference" scheduled for September 10-12, 2025, in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, focusing on "technological innovation and green transformation" [2] - The conference has already received over 600 registrations, indicating strong interest from industry participants [2] - The event aims to assist industry clients and financial institutions in understanding the industrial silicon supply chain and market opportunities, enhancing risk management capabilities [3] Group 2 - The conference will feature a series of presentations, including macroeconomic analysis and discussions on the industrial silicon market dynamics, particularly the transition between supply and demand phases [5] - Notable speakers include industry experts and analysts, such as Li Zezhen and Tang Dan, who will provide insights into industrial silicon pricing, cost, and supply-demand changes [5][6] - The agenda includes sessions on hedging strategies and case studies related to off-exchange derivative business models [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range operation; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7] 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, the inventory decreases slightly, the supply - demand change is small, and the market is mainly influenced by overall commodity sentiment [1][2] - For polysilicon, the weekly output decreases slightly, the upstream inventory goes through slight destocking, and the market is affected by anti - involution policy expectations and fundamentals. Policy implementation and spot price transmission need to be continuously monitored, and polysilicon is suitable for long - term bottom - fishing [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8405 yuan/ton and closed at 8515 yuan/ton, a change of 0.12% from the previous settlement. The main contract held 277,305 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,072, a decrease of 276 from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton [1] - On September 4, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 537,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week. The ordinary social warehouse had 117,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons, and the social delivery warehouse had 420,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [1] Consumption End - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 10,500 - 10,800 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC was quoted at 10,800 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous week. Other domestic monomer enterprises' DMC was mainly quoted at 11,000 - 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 - 1000 yuan/ton from the previous week [2] - The upstream and downstream are in a deep game. Monomer enterprises adopt a promotional strategy, but some downstream enterprises are cautious due to the lack of improvement in terminal orders [2] Strategy - The spot price remains stable, the inventory decreases slightly, the supply - demand change is small, and the market is mainly influenced by overall commodity sentiment [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 fluctuated slightly, opening at 51,700 yuan/ton and closing at 52,195 yuan/ton, a 0.55% change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 145,950 lots, and the trading volume was 268,080 lots [3] - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The N - type material was 49.00 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg [3] - The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.10 (a - 0.90% change), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.85GW (a - 6.65% change), the weekly polysilicon output was 30,200.00 tons (a - 2.58% change), and the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW (a 3.53% change) [5] Strategy - The weekly output decreases slightly, the upstream inventory goes through slight destocking, and the market is affected by anti - involution policy expectations and fundamentals. Policy implementation and spot price transmission need to be continuously monitored, and polysilicon is suitable for long - term bottom - fishing [7] Policy - On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote the high - quality development of the photovoltaic field, guide local layout, and strengthen product quality management [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market shows a strong performance with a significant price increase, indicating potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics within the industry [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 5, the main contract for industrial silicon futures reached 8795.0 yuan/ton, marking a substantial increase of 3.41% [1]. - The trading volume of industrial silicon futures on September 4 was 50,072 contracts, which represents a decrease of 276 contracts compared to the previous trading day [2]. Group 2: Production and Capacity - The estimated national industrial silicon production for the week is approximately 81,100 tons, with a national capacity utilization rate of 55.85% [2]. - Weekly production has increased to 90,000 tons, suggesting a monthly production estimate of around 390,000 tons [3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The organic silicon market is experiencing upward trends in prices and profits, leading to expectations of increased production, which may negatively impact the demand for industrial silicon [2]. - The demand side for polysilicon is expected to decrease, with monthly production revised down from 145,000 tons to a range of 120,000 to 130,000 tons due to production cuts [3]. - The industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with no significant inventory reduction drivers present [3]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - According to Jianxin Futures, the current market conditions show no significant improvement in the fundamentals, with increased supply pressure and a lack of policy focus on the industrial silicon sector [3]. - Zhonghui Futures notes that supply pressures are rising, particularly in the northwest region, while downstream polysilicon operations are expected to decrease, influenced by strong price increases in polysilicon and the photovoltaic industry [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Unilateral - Neutral, no specific ratings for other strategies [2] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range operation, no specific ratings for other strategies [5] Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon: With stable spot prices, significant supply increase, polysilicon self - disciplined production cuts in September on the consumer side, inventory may start to increase, and the industrial silicon market may experience weak and volatile operations influenced by overall commodity sentiment [2] - Polysilicon: Spot quotes have been raised, downstream product prices have also increased. After self - disciplined production cuts in September, there is a certain reduction in supply, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved to some extent. The market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, with large price fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [5] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Futures: On September 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8520 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, a change of (-25) yuan/ton or (-0.29)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 279742 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50348 lots, a change of 319 lots from the previous day [1] - Supply: Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 386,000 tons, a 14% month - on - month increase and a 19% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, cumulative production decreased by 20% year - on - year [1] - Consumption: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10500 - 10800 (-50) yuan/ton. Downstream procurement was cautious due to poor terminal demand, and monomer plants still adopted a strategy of offering discounts to secure orders [1] Group 4: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - Futures: On September 3, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 showed a strong and volatile trend, opening at 52000 yuan/ton and closing at 52160 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 149210 lots, and the trading volume was 362759 lots [3] - Spot: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 49.00 - 54.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was priced at 48.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - Inventory and Production: Polysilicon factory inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 213,000 tons, a - 14.29% month - on - month change; silicon wafer inventory was 18.05GW, a 3.68% month - on - month change. Weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a 6.53% week - on - week change; silicon wafer production was 13.31GW, an 8.30% week - on - week change [3] - Industry Forecast: In September, the expected polysilicon production in China is less than 130,000 tons, mainly due to expected production cuts in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. Some second - and third - tier production lines have resumed production, offsetting part of the reduction [4] - Downstream Products: Silicon wafers, battery cells, and component prices remained stable [4]