来源：股市直击 12月10日消息，指数午后回升，三大股指跌幅收窄。板块方面，午后地产股回暖，万科A午后直线拉升 封涨停；海南本地股冲高，神农种业20cm涨停，欣龙控股、罗牛山等多股涨停；大消费板块活跃，永 辉超市、中央商场、美凯龙涨停；下跌方面，AI应用板块大面积飘绿，胜宏科技跌幅居前；消费电子 板块持续调整，福蓉科技领跌。总体来看，两市个股跌多涨少，下跌个股超3400只。 截至发稿，沪指报3889.77点，跌0.51%，深成指报13243.13点，跌0.26%，创指报3183.14点，跌0.82%。 盘面上，海南自贸区、海南、贵金属板块涨幅居前；培育钻石、AI PC、其他电源设备板块跌幅居前。 ...

炒股的朋友可以免费领取福利，具体看这里。 要闻精选与涉及板块 1. 中央政治局会议：明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗 争，更好统筹发展和安全；继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量 政策集成效应。 【涉及板块】整个市场流动性无忧，这是市场走牛的必备前提之一 2. 央视新闻：进入冬季，多地中小学生相继迎来"雪假"出游热度高涨。11月29日至12月7日"雪假"期 间，从乌鲁木齐和阿勒泰出发的机票预订量显著增长。从乌鲁木齐出发的机票预订量环比11月15日至23 日增长45%，而从阿勒泰出发的机票预订量环比增长48%，尤其飞往南方温暖城市的航线更受欢迎。 【涉及板块】AI应用概念 5. 税务总局：前11个月，办理离境退税的境外旅客数量同比增长285%，退税商品销售额和退税额同比 增长98.8%。截至11月底，全国离境退税商店已达12252家，提供"即买即退"服务的商店超7000家。 【涉及板块】免税概念 6. 证券时报：临近年末，跨年行情预期升温。但公募在跨年布局上则各有各的"心思"，浮盈明显的基金 想保存收益平稳收尾，前期回报不明显的基金则想最后再冲 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% and the ChiNext Index down 0.21%. Consumer electronics, Nvidia concepts, and nuclear pollution sectors saw gains, while innovative drugs, precious metals, and robotics sectors experienced declines [1] - According to GF Securities, large-cap stocks are expected to outperform small-cap stocks in December, with a phase of dividend style dominance. The financial sector showed significant average gains, driven by asset rebalancing among institutions as the year-end assessment period approaches [1] - Open Source Securities suggests that the market correction has paused, and it is advisable to position for the upcoming spring rally, focusing on the dual drivers of technology and cyclical sectors. Opportunities in underperforming growth industries such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, and power equipment have emerged [2] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities indicates a clear trend of capital inflow into the A-share market, with a focus on the TMT sector and upstream resource products. The upcoming annual report season is expected to attract funds, particularly in the computing power sector, which has relatively certain performance [3] - The mid-term trend is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index likely to trade within the range of 3850-3950 points this month. Key areas of focus include TMT, upstream resources, AI supply chains, and military aerospace sectors [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of aligning A-share market investments with the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy guidance, focusing on opportunities arising from global monetary easing and industrial upgrades [1] - Three main investment themes are identified: 1) Technology innovation led by artificial intelligence; 2) Digital transformation of traditional industries through "AI+"; 3) Value recovery through investment in human capital to boost consumption [1] - The dual drivers of technology and cyclical industries are expected to continue, with relative profitability and economic advantages in technology likely to persist amid a global tech cycle [1] Group 2 - External demand for Chinese exports may face pressure due to tariff disturbances, low global economic growth, and stricter regulations on transshipment trade, but structural advantages in Chinese manufacturing are expected to support stable growth in exports [2] - Four incremental opportunities for external demand in 2026 are identified: 1) Structural support from the "re-industrialization" demand in emerging markets; 2) Gradual realization of competitive advantages in Chinese manufacturing; 3) Domestic industrial and value chain upgrades driven by overseas expansion; 4) Growth potential in service trade under focused policies [2]

Group 1 - CITIC Securities reports that a turning point in inventory has been observed since mid-November, with expectations for LME copper prices to accelerate towards $12,000 per ton by the end of the year due to interest rate cuts and domestic production reductions [1] - Looking ahead to next year, the dual narrative of "U.S. copper hoarding" and "domestic production cuts" is expected to resonate, potentially widening the supply gap by 60%, with $12,000 becoming a new starting point for copper prices [1] - A comprehensive recommendation for allocation in the copper sector has been made [1] Group 2 - Cinda Securities indicates that the foundation for a bull market remains solid, with the current market's low trading volume not being a negative signal, as historical patterns show that low volume often coincides with good buying opportunities during bull markets [2] - The report suggests that the end of the year may serve as a window for positioning ahead of a cross-year market rally, as adjustments typically occur before such rallies [2] - Huaxi Securities anticipates an influx of new capital into the A-share market at the year's end, driven by factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and favorable currency conditions for foreign investment in Chinese assets [3] - The report highlights sectors to focus on, including high-growth areas supported by industrial policy, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI applications, as well as non-ferrous metals benefiting from improved overseas liquidity [3]

本周各家券商策略普遍提及岁末年初的历史行情表现情况，整体看好春季躁动提前。 广发策略刘晨明团队复盘了岁末年初的指数及风格历史表现情况，可总结为： 11月：对机构最不利的一个月已经过去，11月份市场涨跌和基本面关联度最弱，主题活跃、轮动加快。 12月：过去20年，指数在12月涨跌各半，不过基本面定价的有效性较11月增强；风格方面，大盘优于小盘，红利占优，金融板块涨幅居前，港 股红利也迎来一年中日历效应最强的时段。 1月：指数在1月的上涨概率仅43%，小盘股上涨概率仅31%，主要受年报预告压制风险偏好影响。 春节前后、2月：一年当中风险偏好最高的区间，小盘股胜率超过90%，成长风格、电子/计算机/非银等行业的平均涨幅最高。 今年来看，截止11月下旬，主线板块的调整时间、调整空间都已较为充分，近期已出现不同程度的反弹、或不再下跌，12月可纳入观察区间。26年的春季 躁动大概率不会缺席，做好积极布局准备（缺席的原因不外乎政策及外部冲击、流动性冲击、盈利下行，今年上述因素展望都较为温和）。 中银策略王君团队指出，"春躁"预热行情有望提前开启。下周起，美联储12月降息预期即将落地，当前市场对于12月降息的预期比较一致，需 ...

Group 1 - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security have issued new drug directories for basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance, adding 114 new drugs, including 50 innovative drugs [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has set clear requirements for market value management, cash dividends, and share buybacks to enhance the investment value of listed companies and increase investor returns [1] - The Financial Regulatory Administration has adjusted the risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments, aiming to cultivate and expand patient capital [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown a recovery, with major indices closing in the green, and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points [2] - Recent financial regulatory policies are expected to provide significant short-term support to the market, including differentiated supervision for quality institutions and the relaxation of capital and leverage restrictions [2] - Historical data indicates that the period from mid-December to mid-January is typically a key observation window for year-end market trends, coinciding with the release of annual policies and seasonal liquidity easing [2] Group 3 - In terms of sector allocation, the brokerage sector may benefit from regulatory policy optimization, while high-dividend stocks in banking, electricity, and home appliances remain attractive [3] - Growth sectors such as AI applications, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals are expected to have recovery potential if the spring market rally starts early [3] Group 4 - Upcoming IPOs include companies like Nabai Chuan, Yuxun Co., and Yuanchuang Co., with a focus on sectors such as new energy vehicle thermal management and optical communication [9]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing a low-level oscillation, with initial signs of stabilization as major indices' moving averages converge, awaiting a new trend in the market [4][7][16] - It is anticipated that a new buying window will open around mid-December, driven by institutional funds repositioning for the next year, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][16] - The long-term outlook suggests a "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026, supported by improved corporate performance, increased household savings entering the market, and a favorable global liquidity environment [4][7] Group 2 - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the commercial aerospace sector, with the market expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan this year, driven by favorable policies and the establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies [11] - There is a focus on strategic minor metals and industrial metals, with expectations for a rebound in prices as the price gap between precious metals and these metals continues to widen [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of the AI application sector and domestic AI computing capabilities, which are expected to benefit from policy support and market trends [17][18] Group 3 - The real estate market is showing signs of divergence, with new home prices increasing while second-hand home prices continue to decline, affecting consumer sentiment [8] - The report notes that the financial sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with regulatory changes expected to inject significant liquidity into the market [12] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to positively impact sectors such as non-ferrous metals and innovative pharmaceuticals [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reasons behind the seasonal market rally known as "spring excitement," emphasizing its historical significance and the factors contributing to its occurrence [1][2][4]. Group 1: Significance of Spring Rally - The spring rally serves as a market response to economic expectations and policy directions for the coming year, allowing investors to position themselves for the main themes of the year [1][8]. - It provides a favorable opportunity for institutions to adjust their portfolios, especially after year-end assessment pressures ease [1][8]. - The rally reflects seasonal liquidity improvements, driven by capital inflows around the Spring Festival and heightened policy expectations [1][8]. Group 2: Core Causes of Spring Rally - The three main causes of the spring rally include: 1. Concentrated release of policy expectations [1][8]. 2. Seasonal changes in liquidity, including a narrowing M1-M2 gap and strong credit issuance at the beginning of the year [1][8]. 3. An earnings vacuum period that allows institutions to adjust their holdings [1][8]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Rally Intensity - Historical analysis indicates that a strong spring rally typically requires one or a combination of the following conditions: 1. Short-term macroeconomic data (e.g., PMI, social financing, industrial value-added) significantly exceeding expectations, signaling economic stabilization or recovery [2][8]. 2. Overall corporate profitability entering an upward trajectory, with positive annual and quarterly earnings forecasts, free from major external disruptions [2][8]. 3. Clearly accommodative monetary policy, characterized by rising M1 growth, declining short-term interest rates, and enhanced credit pulses, providing ample liquidity support for high-elasticity assets [2][8]. Group 4: Changes in Funding Ecology - The current market sees two significant changes in funding ecology that may contribute to a stable increase in China's securitization rate: 1. The weakening of real estate investment attributes, with the equity market becoming a new primary venue for household assets [2][9]. 2. Indirect movement of household funds into the market, resulting in a continuous and stable influx of new capital [2][9]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, highlighting: 1. The dual driving forces of technology and cyclical opportunities, with cyclical prospects becoming more prominent amid anti-involution trends [4][11]. 2. Continued long-term advantages for technology sectors [4][11]. 3. Identification of opportunities in recently undervalued growth sectors such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment [4][11]. Group 6: Sector Allocation Recommendations - Recommendations for sector allocation include: 1. Internal recovery and high-low cuts within technology: military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, batteries, and core AI hardware [5][12]. 2. Benefits from PPI improvement and broad anti-involution: solar energy, chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, electricity, and machinery [5][12]. 3. Long-term core holdings: stable dividends, gold, and optimized high-dividend stocks [5][12].

Group 1: Commonality of Spring Rally - The spring rally signifies the market's early response to economic expectations and policy directions for the coming year, allowing investors to position themselves for the main themes of the year [12][13] - The three core drivers of the spring rally include concentrated policy expectations, seasonal liquidity changes, and the performance vacuum during the earnings reporting period [16][20] - Strong spring rallies typically occur when macroeconomic data significantly exceeds expectations, overall corporate earnings enter an upward trajectory, and monetary policy is notably accommodative [21][20] Group 2: Changes in Funding Ecology Behind the Index Bull Market - The weakening of real estate investment attributes has led to the equity market becoming the new main stage for residents' assets, with a structural migration of funds from real estate to stocks and funds [23][24] - Residents' funds are indirectly entering the market, bringing stable incremental capital, with a shift from high-yield financial products to new categories such as fixed income+, secondary bond funds, and higher-risk bank wealth management products [25][26] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Technology and Cyclical Sectors - The market correction is seen as a temporary pause, with an emphasis on early positioning for the spring rally, focusing on both technology and cyclical sectors as dual drivers [29][30] - Specific sectors showing potential include military industry, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment, with core technology blue chips expected to recover [29][30]