宏观经济 | 专题报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 难有高增长，或有超预期 消费会成为 2026 年宏观热点吗？ 研究结论 内需增速放缓，看好增长质量：10 月经济 数据点评 2025-11-15 为"并跑领跑"时代构筑制度根基：宏观 角度看四中全会与"十五五 ...

Core Insights - The domestic e-commerce giants reported their Q3 2025 earnings, revealing a mixed performance with JD.com leading in revenue growth while Alibaba faced significant profit declines [1][4]. Group 1: Revenue Performance - JD.com achieved revenue of 2990.59 billion, marking a 14.9% year-on-year growth and maintaining double-digit growth for four consecutive quarters [3]. - Alibaba reported revenue of 2477.95 billion, a 4.77% year-on-year increase, which rises to 15% when excluding sold-off businesses. The growth was driven by strong performance in AI, cloud, and consumer sectors [2][4]. - Pinduoduo's revenue reached 1082.77 billion, reflecting an 8.98% year-on-year growth, with a slight recovery in growth rate compared to the previous quarter [3]. Group 2: Profitability Analysis - Alibaba's net profit fell by 52% to 210.2 billion, primarily due to aggressive investments in instant retail and technology, leading to a significant drop in operating profit [4][7]. - JD.com also saw a 55.03% decline in net profit to 52.76 billion, attributed to increased spending on new business ventures, despite a strong core retail performance [4][5]. - In contrast, Pinduoduo reported a net profit of 293.3 billion, a 17.4% increase, benefiting from effective cost control and a focus on high-margin businesses [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Investments and Future Outlook - JD.com increased its fulfillment expenses by 35.2% to 220 billion and marketing expenses by 110.5% to 210.5 billion to support user growth and new business development [5]. - Pinduoduo emphasized long-term strategies, committing to ongoing support for merchants through initiatives like "hundred billion relief" and "thousand billion support" plans [6][7]. - Industry experts noted that the competition in the e-commerce sector has shifted from merely acquiring traffic to enhancing core capabilities, with technology and supply chain management becoming critical factors for success [7].

Group 1 - The forum aims to explore the concept of globalization for Chinese enterprises, encouraging participants to break cognitive boundaries and gain new perspectives on global strategies [4] - The founder of the Dolphin Society, Li Chengdong, emphasizes the importance of adapting to the changing landscape of the consumer market and the necessity for companies to pivot towards international opportunities as domestic markets become saturated [6][8] - The discussion highlights the need for companies to integrate into existing successful ecosystems when entering foreign markets, rather than starting from scratch [9][11] Group 2 - Historical parallels are drawn between the motivations for exploration in the past and the current drive for Chinese companies to expand internationally due to domestic market constraints [12][14] - The current era of globalization is characterized as a "system output" phase, where companies are not just exporting products but also their supply chains, business models, and talent [18] - Africa is identified as a key growth area for the next few decades, with its vast resources and young population presenting significant opportunities for investment and market development [20][22] Group 3 - Companies are advised to adopt an ecological mindset, focusing on providing unique value within established networks rather than competing directly against them [26] - The importance of professional services in navigating international markets is emphasized, as these can be critical to success and compliance [26] - Engaging with communities like the Dolphin Society can provide valuable insights and reduce the risks associated with international expansion [26]

Group 1 - Some prominent Chinese concept stocks in the US market experienced a decline in pre-market trading on December 2nd [1] - Xiaopeng Motors saw a pre-market drop of 4% [1] - Alibaba and Bilibili also faced declines, with drops of 1.4% and 1.3% respectively [1]

Group 1 - Xiaopeng Motors saw a pre-market decline of 4% [1] - Alibaba experienced a drop of 1.4% [1] - Bilibili's stock fell by 1.3% [1]

12月1日，由京东、广汽集团、宁德时代共同推出的"国民好车"埃安UT super在京举办了第1000名车主 交付仪式，标志着该车型正式迈入规模化交付新阶段。值得一提的是，目前交付的1000辆埃安UT super，其中有990辆来自线上订单，进一步验证了电商平台销售汽车的可行性。 据了解，此次埃安UT super首批交付是行业里首次实现消费者在未进行实车体验下直接下单，并且不依 靠线下积累订单的前提下取得首周交付1000辆的成绩。作为京东独家销售车型，首周交付车辆中近99% 通过京东线上渠道售出，充分体现了电商渠道的核心带动力。千台车辆的快速交付，也反映出新车性能 品质，以及广汽集团、宁德时代、京东三方联合推出的新型合作模式已获得市场初步认可。 "国民好车"埃安UT super由广汽集团、宁德时代、京东三方联合推出，整合了京东在用户洞察和汽车零 售服务领域的优势资源，以及广汽整车制造能力和宁德时代的电池技术及换电生态。埃安UT super实现 了多项同级领先的功能配置，如500公里续航、华为云车机、倒车哨兵等，并提供了超高性价比。同 时，埃安UT super还做到了"核心产品价值体验领先，购买价格和使用成本领先 ...

Macro Economic Group - The US manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 48.2%, below the expected 49% and the previous month's 48.7%, indicating a "strong supply and weak demand" scenario [4] - The output index for November is at 51.4%, a recovery of 3.2 percentage points from October, returning to the expansion zone [4] - New orders index for November is at 47.4%, down 2 percentage points from the previous month, while new export orders are at 46.2%, indicating contraction [4] - The employment index is at 44%, down 2 percentage points from last month, reflecting a decline in employment [4] - The price index is at 58.5%, showing upward pressure on prices despite a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - Doubao launched the Doubao Mobile Assistant, demonstrating AI Agent applications with Nubia smartphones, which significantly ease users' daily tasks [7] - The collaboration smartphone priced at 3499 yuan quickly sold out, indicating strong market interest despite some performance issues in complex tasks [7] - The emergence of this application model alleviates investor concerns about an AI investment bubble, suggesting a positive outlook for the AI sector [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Research indicates that the revenue models and demand trends for independent energy storage stations vary across eight provinces, with investment returns generally exceeding 8%, and some reaching 10%-15% [10] - The investment logic in the energy storage sector is shifting from relying on subsidies to identifying system bottlenecks [10] - The high prosperity of the energy storage industry is expected to first manifest in rapid installation growth, followed by intense competition in the equipment sector [10] Consumer Group - Macau's GGR recovery rate for November reached 92.2%, the highest in 2023, indicating strong high-end demand and reinforcing growth logic in the sector [12] - The performance of the luxury goods sector is expected to improve, supported by positive trends in international tourism and high hotel occupancy rates [12] - The e-commerce sector saw a significant increase, with Ruoyuchen's self-owned brand sales surging 35 times year-on-year, validating the success of its brand incubation strategy [13]

今年前10个月，我国企业在共建"一带一路"国家非金融类直接投资2341.5亿元人民币，同比增长 22.3%。 从港口到电站，从铁路到电商，在共建"一带一路"倡议框架下，中国海外投资的步伐在加快。 近日，第九届"一带一路"与全球治理国际学术论坛在复旦大学举行。本届论坛由复旦大学和"一带一 路"智库合作联盟联合主办，复旦大学一带一路及全球治理研究院和中联部当代世界研究中心承办， 以"开拓'一带一路'的广度和深度"为主题，共同探讨"一带一路"在新时代背景下的新发展、新机遇和新 挑战。 中铁二十四局集团有限公司海外部总经理张百芹在发言中回顾了中国通过共建"一带一路"对非洲基础设 施的深度参与。从坦赞铁路到埃塞俄比亚非盟疾控中心为代表的中非合作标志性大项目，再到惠及非洲 多国的公路、桥梁等一大批基础设施项目，不仅极大地改善了当地的交通状况，为当地经济发展注入了 新的活力，还为当地创造了大量的就业机会，培养了许多专业技术人才。 据新华社消息，当地时间11月20日，坦赞铁路激活项目开工仪式在卢萨卡举行。坦、赞两国领导人表 示，愿同中方通力协作，积极落实中非合作论坛北京峰会成果，将铁路激活项目打造成共同推进现代化 建设的精品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ninth Ningde (Xiapu) Large Yellow Croaker Industry Innovation Development Conference highlighted the strategic partnership between JD Fresh and the Xiapu County Commerce Bureau to promote the high-quality development of the entire large yellow croaker industry chain [1][3]. Industry Overview - Ningde, known as the "Capital of Large Yellow Croaker" in China, produces 80% of the country's large yellow croaker, with a projected output of 214,900 tons in 2024 and a total industry value exceeding 20 billion yuan [4]. - The large yellow croaker is a unique marine fish in China, highly regarded for its taste and nutritional value, often referred to as the "national fish" [3][4]. Company Strategy - JD Fresh leverages its super supply chain capabilities and a "source direct delivery + direct procurement" model to ensure that freshly caught large yellow croakers are processed within six hours and delivered quickly to consumers [3][6]. - The company has established a comprehensive quality assurance system covering all aspects of production, circulation, and sales, including strict pre-sale, in-sale, and post-sale quality control standards [6][8]. Product Innovation - JD Fresh has introduced a "three removals" process (scales, gills, and internal organs) to simplify cooking for consumers, along with a traceable QR code system for transparency from breeding to processing [8]. - The company offers competitive pricing by eliminating middlemen and utilizing direct sourcing, ensuring consumers receive high-quality products at lower prices [8]. Collaborative Efforts - JD Fresh is collaborating with leading brands in the large yellow croaker sector to establish a source direct delivery certification base, enhancing brand promotion and sales for Ningde large yellow croaker [9][11]. - The partnership aims to provide stable, high-quality supply and competitive pricing, thereby increasing JD's competitiveness in the large yellow croaker category [11][13]. Consumer Trends - There is a growing consumer demand for high-quality protein, leading to the introduction of premium products such as boneless yellow croaker fillets and various processed forms to cater to diverse consumer preferences [13].

天眼查显示，近日，东方甄选（北京）科技有限公司发生重要工商变更，孙东旭卸任法定代表人、经理、执行董事职务，由俞敏洪接任。 | 变更记录 10 0 @ | | | | 【 数据纠错 变更项目 - 变更时间 - 可导出 2天眼查 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 变更日期 | | 变更项目 | 要更前 | 变更后 12 | | | | 经营范围变更(含业务 | 技术推广:医护人员防护用品生产 (类医疗器械):企业形象策 | 一般项目;技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、 一般项目:技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让. 技术推广;医护人员防护用品生产(l类医疗器械);企业形象策 | | | 2025-11-27 | | 划;广告制作;广告设计、代理:会议及展览服务;食用农产品批 | 划;广告制作;广告设计、代理;会议及展览服务;食用农产品批 | | | | 范围变更) | | 发;食用农产品零售;礼品花卉销售;畜牧渔业饲料销售;日用品销 发;食用农产品零售;礼品花卉销售;畜牧渔业饲料销售;日用品销 | | | | | | 雪:日用品批发:化妆品 ...