房地产
Search documents
广州公积金新政领跑一线城市,首付提取扩至二手房
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 08:25
多地住房公积金已覆盖二手房首付。 继去年8月广州发布公积金新政,允许一手房可申请提取住房公积金支付购房首付款之后,9月28日,广州住房公积金管 理中心等四部门再度出手,优化住房公积金提取政策,扩大住房公积金的支付适用范围。 除了现售商品住房外,购买存量商品住房、配售型保障性住房或者共有产权住房,均可申请提取住房公积金用于支付购 房首付款;另外,为其拥有所有权的住宅实施老旧电梯更新改造,也可申请提取住房公积金用于支付家庭分摊费用。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进对记者表示,广州此次优化住房公积金提取政策,体现了增强覆盖面的导向,在一 线城市中具有较大的创新性和超前性。 一线城市公积金政策持续调整 严跃进认为,广州的公积金政策具有较大的创新性。此前北京和上海的公积金"又提又贷"政策是针对新房而言,并不包 括二手房。而广州明确了购房者可以提取公积金来支付二手房的首付款,所以具有超前性。 "这也说明,近期政策层面还在进一步微调,以更好发挥政策工具对住房消费市场的支持。"他说。 据中指研究院统计,今年以来,全国已有超30个市(区)出台提取住房公积金支付购房首付款的新政,其中,北京、上 海、广州、深圳等四个一线城市都已 ...
外国人买爆美国房产,其中华人最多,中国资金可能延缓了美国衰落
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 05:58
内容提要: 2025统计年度,外国人购买美国现房激增三分之一。认为美国必将衰败的中国买家以137亿美元、1.17万套房产位居榜首,占总额 24.5%,购房中位数75.96万美元,远超全美平均水平。受高房价和高房贷利率影响,美国本地购房需求低迷,外国富裕群体趁机投资。 出于安全和房价上涨担忧,美国30个州通过限制外国人购房的法案。 一、2025统计年度,外国人购买美国现房增长三分之一,其中四分之一为排名第一的中国人购买。 在美国房价高涨导致美国人购房放缓的背景下,以中国人为主的外国富裕群体,将此视为在美国置业投资的良机。2024 年 4 月至 2025 年 3 月统计年度,外国人在美国购买的现房数量同比大增三分之一,其中中国人的购买金额暴涨8成。尽管外国人的购房量仅占美国总销 量的2%。 根据全美房地产经纪人协会2025年美国住宅房地产国际交易报告,从2024年4月到2025年3月的2025统计年度(下同),外国买家购买了 价值560亿美元的美国现房。这比前12个月增长了 33.3%,创下2018年以来的最高增长。国际买家购买了7.81万处房产,比上年增长 44%,是自 2017 年以来的首次同比增长,增幅为2 ...
不动产信托财产登记试点扩围至第5城,各地积极响应
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-09-28 00:49
Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Notice on the Pilot Registration of Real Estate Trust Property" marks a significant step in revitalizing existing assets through real estate trusts in Tianjin, following similar initiatives in other major cities [1][3]. Group 1: Pilot Registration of Real Estate Trusts - Tianjin becomes the fifth city to implement a pilot program for real estate trust property registration, joining Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Xiamen [3]. - The core application scenario for real estate trusts is identified as revitalizing existing assets, with an innovative addition of allowing trustees to purchase real estate [1][3]. Group 2: Industry Implications - The integration of finance and real estate through this innovative system is expected to serve as a powerful tool for wealth management and inheritance [3]. - Feedback from previous pilot programs indicates a positive response from various sectors, highlighting societal anticipation for the new system [3]. Group 3: Trust Management and Asset Value - Real estate is recognized as a crucial asset type for inheritance and management, possessing long-term value that impacts both the principal and beneficiaries [3]. - The trustworthiness of trustees is fundamental, requiring long-term cultivation and a robust mechanism to build confidence among clients [3]. - The ongoing transformation of the trust industry towards a "three-category" model is laying the groundwork for gaining trust [3].
降息救不了美国!居民不买房,企业不生产,美联储陷入死循环
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-27 16:11
最近不少人都在聊美国的利率政策,觉得只要美联储一降息,美国经济就能重回正轨。 可事实真没这么简单,现在的美国经济就像一团乱麻,光靠降息这一把剪刀,根本剪不开眼前的困境。 就业数据被动手脚、降息传导链条断裂、通胀成了"顽固派",这三大矛盾凑到一起,让美国的经济迷局越来越难破。 想搞懂美国的利率政策,得先看美联储最在意的两个指标,通胀和就业。 以前美联储把重心放在压通胀上,现在明显开始往就业上靠,按道理说,只要就业数据不好看,降息就有了理由,可偏偏在这个节骨眼上,美国的就业数据 出了"幺蛾子"。 现在要是就业数据再被动手脚,美联储的独立性就更没谱了,以前大家还觉得美联储能根据经济实际情况做决策。 现在看来,政治因素已经开始绑架经济数据,这样一来,利率政策怎么可能贴合真实的经济需求? 很多人觉得降息是"万能药",只要利率一降,企业愿意投资、居民愿意花钱,经济自然就活了。 可现在的美国,偏偏卡在了最关键的一步,没人愿意加杠杆。 先捋捋降息的正常传导逻辑,降息后,居民、企业或者政府得有人敢借钱花钱(也就是加杠杆),这样才能拉动新增需求。 需求上来了,企业才会扩大生产、招人;就业好了,居民收入增加,又能反过来刺激消费,形 ...
1,000 Americans Became Millionaires Every Day in 2024: 3 Assets That Are Driving Their Wealth
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-27 14:57
Core Insights - The rise in personal wealth in the U.S. is significant, with approximately 1,000 Americans becoming millionaires daily, as reported in UBS' 2025 Global Wealth Report [1] Group 1: Key Assets Driving Wealth - Real estate is a traditional yet effective path to millionaire status, with homeownership contributing to significant wealth accumulation [3] - Home values have appreciated rapidly, allowing families to build wealth through equity growth, even with modest down payments [4] - Renting out property can provide additional income, aiding in mortgage repayment and reinvestment opportunities [5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Stock market investments, particularly in tech and energy sectors, have seen substantial growth, with long-term holding strategies yielding the best results [6] - Consistent contributions to index funds, such as the S&P 500, can lead to significant wealth accumulation over time [6] - Employer-sponsored retirement plans, like 401(k)s, have enabled many average-income workers to build substantial retirement savings through consistent contributions [7]
基建景气或正修复:每周高频跟踪20250927-20250927
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-27 14:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the fourth week of September, the peak-season effect on the demand side was gradually released, especially the investment-related indicators showed a month-on-month recovery. Inflation-wise, food prices stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of exports, both the CCFI and SCFI indices continued to decline month-on-month, while port freight volume remained high and volatile. Industrially, industrial electricity consumption decreased before the holiday, coal consumption entered the off-season, and the increase in the operating rate slowed down. In investment, the price increases of cement and rebar expanded, and the operating rate of asphalt accelerated, indicating that the infrastructure investment climate may be improving. In the real estate sector, the sales of new homes further soared while second-hand homes remained stable month-on-month. Overall, the "Golden September" was mediocre, and the year-on-year growth of new homes remained negative [2][32]. - For the bond market, production weakened marginally before the holiday, but the signs of investment stabilization became more prominent this week. The release of peak-season investment demand, the expectation of supply contraction, and the increase in costs may boost the prices of midstream investment products. Attention should be paid to the month-on-month improvement of PPI. Although the "Golden September" was mediocre in terms of real estate sales and investment indicators, demand began to improve in the last week of September. After the holiday, attention should be paid to its sustainability. Especially in October, the weather is conducive to construction, and policy-based financial tools are expected to be implemented, so the fourth quarter may be the period when the "broad credit" effect is realized. Short-term macro expectations may still disturb the bond market sentiment [2][32]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inflation-related - Food prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week (September 22 - 26), the average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.94% month-on-month and continued to fall. Vegetable and fruit prices rose. The 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.41% and 0.48% month-on-month, respectively, ending the decline [7]. Import and Export-related - The CCFI and SCFI indices continued to decline. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 2.93% month-on-month, and the SCFI decreased by 6.98% month-on-month, continuing the downward trend. The demand for China's export container transportation weakened, and the freight rates in the ocean shipping market continued to adjust. Among them, the demand on the North American route had not improved, and the spot booking prices continued to fall. The freight rates on the West and East Coast routes of the United States decreased by 10.8% and 6.7% month-on-month, respectively. In terms of port freight volume, from September 15 to September 21, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 0.18% and 0.14% month-on-month, respectively, and the year-on-year increases were 12.95% and 18.76%, respectively, with a significant expansion of the increase, indicating that the export boom remained high [9]. - The BDI index continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. This week, the BDI and CDFI indices increased by 2.2% and 1.7% month-on-month, respectively, continuing the upward trend. Before the holiday, the coal cargo volume increased, and the typhoon affected the ship turnover, driving up the bulk shipping rental prices [9]. Industry-related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.6% month-on-month (2.6% the previous week). In terms of demand, this week, the typhoon brought heavy rainfall to the South China coast, effectively alleviating the high temperature in the south. Coupled with the maintenance of power plant units, the civilian electricity load significantly decreased, and coal consumption entered the off-season. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream industrial enterprises would enter a centralized shutdown period, and industrial electricity demand would also weaken accordingly [13][15]. - The price of rebar increased slightly, and the inventory reduction accelerated. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.2% month-on-month (0.6% the previous week). The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% month-on-month, with an accelerated reduction. This week, both the factory and social inventories of rebar decreased, and the apparent demand rebounded. According to Jinlian Chuang statistics, the rebar production has been continuously decreasing since September. In some regions, the profit decreased, and steel mills actively reduced production. The supply side shrank significantly, and the dual-energy control policy fermented in some regions, restricting the release of production capacity. The survey showed that as of the end of September, the terminal procurement volume in East China had only recovered to 92% of the same period last year, and it was still less than 90% in North and Northeast China. The "Golden September" was mediocre. Looking forward to October, as engineering projects enter the year-end sprint stage, attention should be paid to the demand performance of rebar [15]. - The increase in copper prices slightly expanded. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous Copper and LME Copper increased by 0.66% and 0.57% month-on-month, respectively, maintaining an upward trend. This week, the suspension of copper mines in Indonesia led to an expectation of supply contraction, the social inventory of Shanghai copper decreased, and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December increased, all of which boosted copper prices [17]. - The increase in glass futures narrowed. At the beginning of the week, the glass trading was mediocre. During the week, boosted by macro expectations, manufacturers generally raised their price expectations significantly, and the downstream procurement rhythm accelerated accordingly, resulting in a significant increase in the market price. However, the actual improvement in the glass demand side was limited [17]. Investment-related - The price increase of cement significantly expanded, supported by both cost and demand. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 2.0% month-on-month (0.01% the previous week). Recently, the cost of cement raw materials has increased, the demand in the traditional peak season has been gradually released, and environmental protection policies require some regions to implement staggered kiln shutdowns, jointly driving up the general increase in cement prices [21]. - In the fourth week of September, the sales volume of new homes increased at an accelerated pace month-on-month but was lower year-on-year. From last Friday to this Thursday (September 19 - 25), the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.793 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 52.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. New homes entered the end-of-month sprint stage and improved at an accelerated pace compared with the previous week, but the year-on-year performance was still low, and the overall performance was mediocre. The sales of second-hand homes decreased slightly. This week, the transaction area of second-hand homes in 17 cities was 1.973 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3% (61.6% last week), with the upward momentum weakening marginally [23]. Consumption-related - The retail sales of passenger cars turned positive year-on-year in the first three weeks of September. According to the Passenger Car Association, from September 1 to 21, the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month. The retail growth rate of passenger cars improved in the third week, but to some extent, it was supported by the low base caused by the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in mid-September last year, and the market trend was generally stable [25]. - The increase in crude oil prices expanded. As of Friday, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 5.2% and 4.9% month-on-month, respectively, turning from a decline to an increase. During the week, the uncertainty of Iraq's crude oil export supply and the month-on-month decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories supported the oil prices [25].
高频经济周报(2025.9.21-2025.9.27):人员流动回落,需求环比改善-20250927
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-27 13:36
Report Information - Report Date: September 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly (2025.9.21 - 2025.9.27) [3] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Luan Qiang [1] - Research Support: Wang Zheyi [1] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report shows that personnel flow has declined while demand has improved month - on - month. Industrial production is generally stable, personnel and freight flows have changed, consumption shows a mixed picture, investment in construction and the real - estate market has improved, exports have seen some fluctuations, and there have been some important policies and events during the period [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. - Most stock indices rose. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. - Commodities showed mixed performance. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. - Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB. The Japanese yen had the largest decline, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% month - on - month, the weekly operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10%, the weekly blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47%, and the weekly crude steel output decreased by 0.67%. - In the real - estate chain, the weekly operating rate of rebar decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65%, the operating rate of float glass remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operation rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. - In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48%, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51%. - In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of international flight operations decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volume in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. - Freight prices decreased slightly. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile wholesale and retail sales increased year - on - year. In the previous period, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car market wholesale and retail sales were 6.00% and 9.00% respectively, and both the 4WMA of the wholesale year - on - year growth rate and the 4WMA of the retail year - on - year growth rate increased. - The film box office and the number of moviegoers decreased. The weekly film box office decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. - Agricultural product prices showed a mixed performance. The weekly price of pork decreased by 0.31%, while the weekly price of vegetables increased by 4.23% [3] 5. Investment - Construction showed good performance. The weekly cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts, the weekly cement price index increased by 2.97%, and the weekly cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. - The real - estate market improved. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. The transaction areas of first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3] 6. Exports - Port throughput increased slightly. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1%, and the weekly container throughput increased by 0.2%. - Most shipping indices declined. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and the CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [3] 7. Important Policies/Events - On September 22, the LPR quotation remained unchanged. - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the development of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, without involving short - term policy adjustments. - On September 24, the central bank announced an operation of 600 billion MLF on September 25. - On September 26, the central bank's third - quarter monetary policy meeting continued to emphasize a "moderately loose" monetary policy [3]
高频经济周报:人员流动回落,需求环比改善-20250927
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-27 12:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall industrial production is stable, with some indicators showing upward trends and others showing downward trends. Personnel flow has significantly declined, and freight prices have slightly decreased. Automobile sales have increased year-on-year, and price performance is differentiated. Construction is performing well, and the commercial housing market has improved. Port throughput has increased, while most shipping indices have declined. Bond indices have generally fallen, most stock indices have risen, commodities have shown mixed performance, and most foreign currencies have depreciated [1]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Large - scale Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined, most stock indices rose, commodities showed mixed performance, and most foreign currencies depreciated. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most among commodities, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [1][6]. 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream perspective, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47% week - on - week, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.67% week - on - week. In the real estate chain, the rebar operating rate decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65% week - on - week, the float glass operating rate remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operating rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. In the general consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48% week - on - week, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58% week - on - week, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% week - on - week [1][9]. 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined, and freight prices have slightly decreased. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volumes in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1][32]. 4. Consumption - Automobile sales have increased year - on - year, and price performance is differentiated. Both the year - on - year wholesale and retail sales of automobiles increased. In the previous period, the year - on - year sales of passenger cars in the wholesale and retail markets increased by 6.00% and 9.00% respectively compared with last year, and both the 4WMA of the year - on - year wholesale growth rate and the 4WMA of the year - on - year retail growth rate increased. The weekly box office of movies decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices showed differentiation, with the pork price decreasing by 0.31% week - on - week and the vegetable price increasing by 4.23% week - on - week [1][46]. 5. Investment - Construction is performing well, and the commercial housing market has improved. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 2.97% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction is performing well. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. By city tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1][55]. 6. Export - Port throughput has increased slightly, and most shipping indices have declined. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the container throughput increased by 0.2% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [1][73].
刘世锦:中国资本市场增量资金来源,或已发生转折性变化
券商中国· 2025-09-27 07:52
"中国经过这么多年,已经积累了非常大规模的社会净财富。银行储蓄利率很低,净财富要增长只有进入资本 市场。所以资本市场增量(资金)的来源和过去已经发生了转折性变化。"9月25日,国务院发展研究中心原副 主任刘世锦在第四届五矿产业金融论坛上如此表示。 刘世锦以"'十五五'时期中国经济持续稳定高质量发展的重点、战略与政策"为题讲述建设金融强国时谈到的前 述看法。他还谈到,需求约束、消费不足是"十五五"期间我国面临的最为紧迫且严峻的挑战,建议重点推动三 个领域结构性改革以有效扩大消费。 消费结构性偏差问题"水落石出" 刘世锦表示,近年来,中国经济疫后复苏进程尽管有曲折,但总体呈现回升向好态势。前两年分别实现5.2% 和5%的增长目标,在全球各大经济体中居前。 另外,宏观经济面临日益增大的需求下降压力,GDP平减指数连续9个季度处于负增长状态。从2010年一季度 开始,中国经济增长逐步转向中速,同时约束由供给转向需求。需求约束主要不是投资不足,而是消费不足。 这依然是"十五五"时期面临的最为紧迫且严峻的挑战。 "我国消费占GDP的比重,不论是与现阶段国际平均水平相比,还是与典型经济体相同发展阶段平均水平相 比,都存在相 ...
板块轮动月报(2025年10月):大盘成长超长续航波动上升,顺周期与科技板块均衡配置-20250927
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-09-27 06:17
Core Insights - The report indicates that the growth style of the market has shone brightly in September, aligning with previous predictions of reaching a peak. It suggests that in October, the growth style will continue to thrive but with increased volatility, advocating for a balanced allocation between cyclical and technology sectors [1][2][3] Sector Rotation: Focus on Broad Growth Direction, Cyclical and Consumer Sectors - The market style is leaning towards mid and large-cap stocks, with growth outperforming value. The cyclical and consumer sectors are expected to be relatively dominant in October [2][12] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October remains high at 91.9%, which is anticipated to create a favorable financial environment for growth stocks [2][33] Industry Allocation: Focus on Technology, Cyclical, and Large Financial Sectors - The top ten industries based on scoring include electric power equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals, machinery, communication, agriculture, electronics, non-bank financials, basic chemicals, consumer services, and computers [4][46] - The report emphasizes a "win rate" approach, favoring investments in electric power, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals, while a "odds" approach suggests focusing on underperforming sectors like brokerage firms and real estate [4][47] Next Month's Sector Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on broad growth styles, particularly in cyclical and consumer sectors. It highlights the importance of investing in electric power, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals, while also considering underperforming sectors like brokerage firms and real estate [5][46]