Core Insights - The company is facing a deep crisis during its transformation period, with financial results showing a decline in revenue and net profit, indicating a struggle with dual weak business segments and cash flow issues [1] - The cosmetics segment, which accounts for over 60% of revenue, is experiencing significant challenges, with reliance on a single product leading to an imbalanced brand portfolio [2] - The strategic transition towards a dual business model of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics is hindered by slow innovation and cash flow deterioration, raising concerns about the company's market competitiveness [3] - To overcome its challenges, the company needs to strengthen its core competencies, innovate in product development, and optimize capital efficiency [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was 876 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.63% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 51 million yuan, down 14.10% year-on-year [1] Cosmetics Business Challenges - The cosmetics segment's over-reliance on a single bestselling product has led to a structural imbalance, with other brands experiencing significant revenue declines [2] - High sales expenses have not translated into sustainable growth, resulting in increased accounts receivable and inventory issues [2] - Online sales growth is lagging behind industry averages, while offline channels are suffering from reduced foot traffic [2] Strategic Transition Issues - The pharmaceutical segment's revenue has slightly decreased, and new product trials have shown limited success [3] - The company's claims of integrating AI and data into its operations remain largely conceptual, with significant challenges in product line management and innovation [3] - Cash flow issues are exacerbated by rising accounts receivable and shortened accounts payable cycles, indicating weakened bargaining power [3] Recommendations for Improvement - The company must solidify its technological barriers in the cosmetics sector and innovate active ingredients to reduce reliance on bestsellers [4] - Accelerating the research and development of pharmaceutical products and genuinely integrating AI into product development processes is crucial [4] - Improving capital efficiency and focusing on strategic initiatives rather than blind expansion is necessary to regain market share [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations with rapid rotation of hotspots, resulting in a rise of over 2% in the micro-cap stock index. More than 3,500 stocks in the two markets closed in the green [1] - The overall market is still in a "gap-filling" phase with a short-term improvement in risk appetite, suggesting a potential shift towards growth sectors after the holiday [1][8] Sector Performance - Chip stocks showed a rebound, with leading stock Zhaoyi Innovation hitting the daily limit of 20% increase. The automotive supply chain surged, particularly in components, with Jingjin Electric also hitting the daily limit [1] - The chemical sector strengthened, led by pesticides and disperse dyes, with Hongqiang Co. achieving six consecutive daily limits. The humanoid robot sector also saw gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The computing power industry continued its rebound, with Hongbo Co. achieving three consecutive daily limits. Other sectors like pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics also performed well [1] Individual Stock Movements - A total of 3,557 stocks rose while 1,674 fell, with 76 stocks hitting the daily limit and 62 stocks hitting the lower limit. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.05% at 3,286.65 points, with a trading volume of 430.9 billion yuan [2] - Main funds focused on accumulating stocks in the automotive parts, general equipment, and black home appliances sectors, with notable net inflows into stocks like Liou Co., Sichuan Changhong, and Bochuang Technology [3] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission are preparing to assist "Chinese concept stocks" wishing to return to the Hong Kong market, with adjustments to listing requirements and processes to attract more companies [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the second batch of 81 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bond funds to support the consumption of old goods, indicating strong market demand for such initiatives [5] Economic Outlook - Huatai Securities suggests that the market may maintain a volatile pattern before the holiday, with a focus on fundamental insights post-earnings disclosures. The emphasis remains on policy and domestic responses as the main trading themes [7] - Oriental Securities indicates that the market style may shift towards growth after the holiday, recommending sectors with policy catalysts and certainty in Q1 earnings, such as banking, electricity, and automotive [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 18.62, down from a previous target of RMB 23.76 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face revenue of RMB 5.16 billion in 2024, a decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit of RMB 610 million, down 41.3%, primarily due to pressure on raw material prices and an asset impairment of RMB 218 million [2][11]. - For Q1 2025, revenue is projected at RMB 1.49 billion, an increase of 0.98%, with a net profit of RMB 250 million, up 5.68%, indicating improved profitability with a gross profit margin of 37.42% [2][11]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2025 and 2026 at RMB 0.98 and RMB 1.10, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 1.21 [2][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2024 is expected to be RMB 5.16 billion, reflecting a 6.6% decline, while net profit is anticipated to be RMB 610 million, a 41.3% decrease due to raw material price pressures and asset impairments [2][11]. - In Q1 2025, revenue is projected to rise to RMB 1.49 billion, a 0.98% increase, with net profit expected to reach RMB 250 million, marking a 5.68% growth [2][11]. Raw Material and CDMO Business - The raw material and intermediate prices are under short-term pressure, but there is optimism for upward flexibility in the future [2][11]. - The CDMO business is expanding, with 2024 revenue expected to be RMB 3.87 billion, a decrease of 5.1%, and a significant focus on emerging fields [3][11]. Financial Forecasts - The financial forecasts indicate a revenue increase to RMB 5.68 billion in 2025, followed by RMB 6.14 billion in 2026, and RMB 6.59 billion in 2027 [4][11]. - The net profit is expected to recover to RMB 880 million in 2025, RMB 985 million in 2026, and RMB 1.08 billion in 2027, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.931 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.85%, while the net profit increased by 39.13% to 512 million yuan [3][7]. - The improvement in the sales expense ratio, which decreased by 6.29 percentage points to 42.27%, significantly contributed to the higher profit growth compared to revenue growth [7]. - The company’s core product, the Loxoprofen Sodium Gel Patch, saw a substantial increase in sales, with a 25.65% growth in the hospital market and a remarkable 173.79% growth in the outpatient market [7]. - The company is expanding its product line with new external preparations, enhancing its long-term competitive edge [7]. Financial Summary - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 3.373 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.201 billion yuan by 2027, with a steady increase in current assets [9]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 600 million yuan and 746 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.03 yuan in 2024 to 1.83 yuan by 2027, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [10]. Revenue and Profitability Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.931 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.804 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.3% [10]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 73.9% to 74.0% over the forecast period, indicating strong cost control [10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 20.3% in 2024 to 21.0% by 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is projected to experience a revenue increase from 10,300.10 million in 2024 to 17,811.64 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.60% [5][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1,261.87 million in 2024 to 3,141.08 million in 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [5][9] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 48.54% in 2024 to 54.14% in 2027, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency [5][9] Financial Summary Income Statement - Revenue is forecasted to decline by 9.73% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 20.42%, 20.07%, and 19.60% in the subsequent years [9] - The operating profit is projected to increase from 1,366.36 million in 2024 to 3,569.41 million in 2027, with a notable operating profit growth rate of 51.26% in 2025 [9] Balance Sheet - Total assets are expected to grow from 28,035.69 million in 2024 to 37,206.16 million in 2027, indicating a solid asset base expansion [8] - The company's cash position is projected to increase from 8,400.00 million in 2024 to 14,471.00 million in 2027, enhancing liquidity [8] Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 2,184.01 million, after a negative cash flow of -619.02 million in 2024 [8] - The net cash increase is projected to be 2,553.49 million by 2027, reflecting improved cash management [8]

截至4月29日14:02，上证科创板综合指数上涨0.34%，成分股大面积飘红。其中，精进电动-UW涨停， 新相微上涨12.76%，中国电研上涨11.45%，微导纳米上涨10.78%，德马科技上涨10.66%。科创综指 ETF华夏（589000）上涨0.43%，最新价报0.93元。 流动性方面，科创综指ETF华夏盘中换手3.38%，成交1.25亿元。拉长时间看，截至4月28日，科创综指 ETF华夏近1周日均成交2.36亿元，位居同类产品第一。 民生证券指出，通过市场化运作，公共数据资源可以更高效地转化为数据产品和服务，推动数据要素的 市场化配置和数据产业的创新发展。在多个重磅政策陆续落地之后，顶层设计的完善有助于推动数据互 联互通，加速数据要素资源市场化进程。 科创综指ETF华夏（589000）及其联接基金（A/C：023719；023720）紧密跟踪科创综指，均衡配置电 子、医药、机械、计算机、电力设备、基础化工、国防军工等"硬科技"领域，合计权重超过97%，而这 些行业都属于新质生产力行业范畴，契合国家发展的方向和趋势。 数据ETF（516000）紧密跟踪中证大数据产业指数，指数中DeepSeek含量超40 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent disclosure of Q1 earnings reports has led to a significant rally in growth stocks, with many companies experiencing substantial gains in their stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - As of April 29, 2025, 1,481 A-share listed companies disclosed their Q1 earnings, with 1,109 reporting profits and 372 reporting losses [2]. - Cumulatively, 4,272 A-share companies have disclosed their Q1 earnings, with 3,313 reporting profits and 959 reporting losses [2]. - Among the disclosed earnings, 1,712 companies had a net profit growth exceeding 10%, 872 had growth over 50%, 542 had growth over 100%, and 55 had growth over 1,000% [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Financial and consumer sectors have shown strong performance since late March and into April, with significant outperformance compared to the overall A-share market [3]. - Key sectors with notable earnings improvements include machinery, electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, with year-on-year profit growth rates of 175%, 83%, 77%, and 55% respectively [5]. - Cyclical industries such as non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and transportation also reported strong earnings growth, with year-on-year profit growth rates of 80%, 74%, and 47% respectively [5]. Group 3: Stock Market Reactions - Several companies, including Yuzhong Sanxia A, Hongbo Co., and Huayang New Materials, have seen their stock prices surge, with multiple consecutive trading days of gains [1]. - Other companies such as Jinchuang Group, Daodaquan, and Shenkai Co. also reached their daily price limits, indicating strong market interest [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 97.16, compared to the current price of RMB 74.47 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in emerging businesses, leading to improved profitability. The focus on polypeptide capabilities and global expansion is expected to drive long-term growth [1][10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 1.54 billion, a 10.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 327 million, up 15.83% [10]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 42.54%, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.98 percentage points but an increase of 3.28 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 6.63 billion, RMB 7.79 billion, and RMB 9.32 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 14.2%, 17.5%, and 19.5% [3][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 1.09 billion in 2025, RMB 1.28 billion in 2026, and RMB 1.53 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.1%, 16.8%, and 19.5% [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at RMB 3.03, RMB 3.54, and RMB 4.23, respectively [3][10]. Business Performance - The small molecule CDMO business remained stable, while emerging business revenues grew over 80% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 33.05%, up 15.75 percentage points from 2024 [10]. - The company secured a total order backlog of USD 1.052 billion, representing a growth of over 20% year-on-year, ensuring stable revenue growth [10]. - The European R&D and pilot base commenced operations in August 2024, contributing to the expansion of the company's capabilities [10].

消息面，上周七部门联合印发《医药工业数智化转型实施方案（2025—2030 年）》，提出以全产业链 协调发展为主线，以数智化改造为主攻方向推进医药工业高端化、智能化、绿色化、融合化发展。 政策目标涵盖了医药研发、生产、流通、监管等全产业链环节，强调通过数智技术提升医药全产业链竞 争力和全生命周期质量管理水平，体现了从整体上推动医药工业升级的理念，是突破国内医药工业研发 效率低、成本高、生产智能化水平不足、供应链协同弱等问题的核心路径。数智技术与医药研发深度融 合，有望动国产创新药、高端医疗器械发展。 医药见底复苏？今年来行情持续活跃，医疗ETF（159828）涨1.3%。 另外美国临床肿瘤学会（ASCO）年会作为全球规模最大、最具权威性的临床肿瘤学会议之一，将于5 月30日-6月3日在芝加哥举行。国内多个药企即将在ASCO 2025上披露最新临床数据，多个国产创新药 品种有望做口头报告，或催化创新药板块行情。 医药行业已经历了超过四年的调整期，目前创新药械收入和利润正逐步兑现，板块反腐、关税扰动逐步 减弱，机构持仓水平降至历史低位。医药作为高弹性行业有望在2025年跑赢市场。 注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表 ...

今日早参 2025 年 4 月 29 日 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 策略：资金透视：配置型外资转向流入 1 今日早参 | 2025 年 4 月 29 日 上周，资金面延续平淡：1）交易型资金中，融资余额仍稳定在 1.8 万亿附 近，行业 ETF 净流出收窄，方向上，短线资金对于业绩预期改善、成长方向 关注度有所回升；2）配置型外资转向净流入，被动配置型外资是净流入主 力，主动配置型外资净流出收窄，仓位视角，4 月初，亚洲配置型外资持有 A 股仓位创 2024 年以来新高，而全球配置型基金仓位相对稳定；3）逆势资 金流入态势放缓，宽基 ETF 转向净流出，产业资本转向净减持，但回购资金 积极入市，回购预案规模仍在 2016 年以来相对高位。 风险提示：1）估算持仓模型失效；2）数据统计口径有误。 研报发布日期：2025-04-28 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB ...