Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation.内外基本面偏空，短期供应充足，看多追多操作需谨慎 [1][2][3] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term oscillation.虽有高关税和低进口支撑，但豆粕替代作用增强，缺乏明显驱动，短期区间行情对待 [1][4][5][7] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish bias.多空因素交织，6月马棕榈油库存意外累库，继续追多看多操作需谨慎 [1][8][9] - **Cotton**: Rebound under pressure.USDA报告多空交织，国内新棉生长好但需求弱，棉价万四位置承压 [1][10][11][12][13] - **Red Dates**: Sell on rallies.新季枣树生长良好，库存高需求弱，关注中下旬逢高沽空机会 [1][14][15] - **Live Pigs**: Weak oscillation.养殖端出栏节奏和二育入场影响短期行情，中长期产能过剩，猪价反弹空间有限 [1][16][17][18] Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: 期货主力日收盘2976元/吨，涨0.74%；全国现货均价2914.86元/吨，涨0.90% [2] - **Supply**: 7月美豆种植天气基本顺利，南美丰产定局；国内港口及油厂大豆、豆粕进入累库阶段，饲料企业库存高于去年同期，补库积极性减缓 [1] - **Inventory**: 截至7月4日，全国港口大豆库存788万吨，环比减20.80万吨；125家油厂大豆库存636.4万吨，环比减29.47万吨，豆粕库存82.24万吨，环比增13.08万吨 [3] Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: 期货主力日收盘2633元/吨，涨0.84%；全国现货均价2613.16元/吨，涨0.73% [4] - **Supply**: 欧盟及加籽种植天气降雨偏低，加籽种植面积同比下降；国内7 - 9月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加100%加菜粕进口关税 [1] - **Inventory**: 截至7月4日，沿海地区主要油厂菜籽库存16.2万吨，环比减2.6万吨；菜粕库存0.46万吨，环比减0.64万吨 [7] Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: 期货主力日收盘8682元/吨，涨0.51%；全国均价8840元/吨，涨0.28% [8] - **Supply**: 东南亚棕榈油累库周期开启，美国威胁对印尼征32%进口关税，印尼出口或下滑，马来西亚关税较低 [9] - **Inventory**: 截至7月4日，全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存53.51万吨，环比减0.23万吨 [9] Cotton - **Market Situation**: 期货主力CF2509收13885元/吨，涨0.14%；国内现货15282元/吨，涨0.53% [10][11] - **Supply**: 美棉播种基本完成，优良率提升，出口增加，但USDA调增新季产量及期末库存；国内新棉生长良好，实播面积增加，5月进口棉减少 [1][11][12][13] - **Demand**: 下游订单走弱，企业开机率低于去年同期，终端市场成交放缓 [1][13] Red Dates - **Market Situation**: 主力合约CJ2601收10600元/吨，增仓上行0.95% [15] - **Supply**: 新季枣树生长良好，产区预估产量正常或略减，库存高于同期 [15] - **Demand**: 需求淡季，下游采购积极性一般，后市干果需求难显著走强 [15] Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: 期货主力Ih2509收14345元/吨，跌0.21%；全国外三元现货14910元/吨 [16] - **Supply**: 短期出栏量减少，规模场挺价；中长期产能过剩，预计下半年出栏量仍有增长空间 [17][18] - **Demand**: 消费淡季，需求稳中趋弱 [17]

Core Viewpoint - The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, leading to a decline in U.S. soybean prices, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics in the domestic market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The supply of soybeans in China from May to July is sufficient, with oil mills operating at high levels compared to the same period last year [1] - The overall supply of soybean meal in the spot market is loose, while downstream replenishment has weakened, resulting in price fluctuations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The reduction in U.S. soybean planting area is confirmed, and the market will focus on weather-related speculation moving forward [1] - The ongoing impact of U.S.-China tariffs will continue to evolve, leading to a period of observation in the market [1]

Core Insights - Asian palm oil prices have surged to a two-month high due to declining production and increasing demand [1] - The market's supply and demand dynamics are expected to significantly influence future price trends [1] - Seasonal factors are anticipated to play a role in shaping market conditions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **豆粕**: Short - term consolidation. The soybean planting weather in the US is generally smooth, South America has a bumper harvest, and domestic ports and oil mills are in the inventory accumulation stage. The market is cautious about short - selling before the US bio - diesel policy is finalized [1]. - **菜粕**: Short - term oscillation. The decline in rapeseed imports from July to September, along with the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, support the price. However, the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to consumption expectations [1]. - **棕榈 oil**: Short - term bullish bias. The inventory accumulation cycle of palm oil in Southeast Asia has begun, but there are bullish factors such as the low - price procurement demand from China and India, the US bio - diesel policy, and Malaysia's B20 policy. The US threat to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia may benefit Malaysian palm oil [1]. - **棉花**: Rebound under pressure. The sowing of US cotton is basically completed, and the export has increased significantly. Domestically, new cotton is growing well, and the actual sown area is higher than expected. The downstream orders have weakened after a short - term rebound [1]. - **红枣**: Wide - range oscillation. The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and there are no obvious signs of significant yield reduction. However, the old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the demand is weak in the short term [1]. - **生猪**: Weak oscillation. The出栏 rhythm of leading enterprises and the entry of secondary fattening have temporarily alleviated the supply pressure, but the pig production capacity has not been cleared, and the short - term price is supported but under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Variety 豆粕 - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2954 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2888.86 yuan/ton, down 8.28 yuan or 0.29% [2]. - **Supply**: As of July 4, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 788000 tons, a decrease of 20800 tons from the previous week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 636400 tons, a decrease of 29470 tons or 4.43% from the previous week [3]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory was 82240 tons, an increase of 13080 tons or 18.91% from the previous week [3]. 菜粕 - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2611 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.97% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2594.21 yuan/ton, up 28.42 yuan or 1.11% [4]. - **Supply**: As of July 4, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 16200 tons, a decrease of 2600 tons from the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory was 460 tons, a decrease of 640 tons from the previous week; the unfulfilled contract was 4900 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous week [7]. 棕榈油 - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 53510 tons, a decrease of 230 tons or 0.43% from the previous week, and an increase of 6200 tons or 13.1% from the same period last year [8]. - **Market Situation**: The US threat to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia may lead to a shift in palm oil export shares from Indonesia to Malaysia. The unexpected inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in June has a negative impact on market sentiment [8]. 棉花 - **Price Information**: The main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou cotton increased by 0.69% to 13865 yuan/ton, ICE cotton decreased by 0.03% to 67.76 cents/pound, and the domestic spot price increased by 0.08% to 15201 yuan/ton [10]. - **International Situation**: The US cotton planting area in 2025 is 10.1 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The latest excellent - good rate is 52%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The latest weekly export of US cotton has increased significantly. India's cotton sown area has increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress is 24%, an increase of 2% year - on - year. Brazil's new - cotton harvest is accelerating, and the output is expected to increase by 5.7% year - on - year to 3.913 million tons [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new cotton in Xinjiang has entered the full - bloom stage. The actual sown area of cotton in the country in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton has decreased by 132300 tons to 3.5976 million tons. The import of cotton resources in May is at a 10 - year low [11]. 红枣 - **Price Information**: The main contract CJ2601 of jujube increased by 2.12% to 10580 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production Area Situation**: The southern Xinjiang production area is in the fruit - setting period. The high - temperature situation in July has been alleviated. The three - party research in the production area shows that the fruit - setting situation is good, and there are no obvious signs of significant yield reduction [14]. - **Inventory and Demand**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from the previous week, and higher than the same period by 4619 tons. The demand is still in the off - season, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average [14]. 生猪 - **Price Information**: The main contract Lh2509 of live pigs increased by 1.09% to 14375 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price decreased by 0.27% to 15000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply**: The national sample enterprise live - pig inventory is 37199300 tons, an increase of 11520 tons or 0.31% from the previous month; the live - pig slaughter volume is 11.2559 million heads, an increase of 167700 heads or 1.51% from the previous month. The national inventory of fertile sows is 40.42 million heads, an increase of 40000 heads or 0.1% from the previous month [15]. - **Demand**: The fat - lean price difference has widened, stimulating secondary fattening. The downstream slaughter volume and开机 rate are still at a low level, and the market demand for pork is showing a marginal decline [16].

Market Review - The main corn futures contract closed down 0.09% at 2320 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that due to dry weather in unharvested areas, corn harvesting progressed rapidly, with 70.4% of the planted area harvested. Argentina is the world's third-largest corn exporter, with an expected corn production of 49 million tons for the 2024/25 season [2] - The USDA's weekly export sales report indicated that as of the week ending July 3, 2025, the net sales of U.S. corn for the 2024/25 season were 1,262,100 tons, significantly higher than the previous week and 70% above the four-week average. For the 2025/26 season, net sales were 888,600 tons, down from 940,200 tons the previous week [2] - The latest USDA drought report showed that as of the week ending July 8, approximately 12% of U.S. corn planting areas were affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and up from 7% in the same period last year [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Jianxin Futures, overall processing demand is unlikely to increase, while wheat and imported corn continue to supplement market supply, leading to a slightly pessimistic market sentiment and a minor price correction. However, the rising costs of storage funds may limit the decline. The 2509 contract is expected to follow the spot market with a focus on fluctuations, and attention should be paid to weather impacts on new crops in corn-producing areas [3] - Southwest Futures noted that domestic corn supply and demand are tending towards balance, with favorable policies and recovering consumption. The sale of old grain in major production areas is nearing completion, and port inventories are quickly returning, reducing inventory pressure and providing strong support at the bottom for corn prices. From January to May, corn imports sharply decreased, and import margins have increased, suggesting potential for higher import volumes in the future. The China Grain Reserves Corporation continues to sell corn through online auctions, and imported corn is beginning to be released. The narrowing price gap with substitutes may face upward pressure, indicating a cautious outlook [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "sideways" or "sideways - weak" [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - Corn futures ended with a small doji star with an upper shadow. After two - month position - reduction adjustment, the position of the weighted contract increased. The spot price in the Northeast decreased by about 20 yuan/ton this week. The price is expected to fluctuate around 2320 - 2330 yuan, and may move towards the 2200 range if the support is invalid [1] - CBOT soybeans rebounded from a three - month low. The USDA is expected to raise the inventory estimates of US soybeans in 24/25 and 25/26. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 1193 tons, up 24% year - on - year. Domestically, protein meal stabilized due to improved macro sentiment, but the spot market was weak. Short - term unilateral participation is recommended, and long 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of soybean meal are advised to be held [1] - BMD palm oil declined due to a bearish MPOB report. Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 10.52% month - on - month in June, while inventory increased by 2.41%. Domestically, palm oil futures fell, while soybean and rapeseed oils rose. Oils are expected to move sideways, and intraday trading is recommended [1] - Egg futures hit a new low and then rebounded. The spot price was mostly stable. After the plum - rain season, demand is expected to boost egg prices, but the high is expected to be lower than last year [1][2] - Hog futures fluctuated narrowly and rebounded at the end. The spot price decreased slightly. Pig prices are under pressure but also have support, and are expected to move sideways in the short term [2] Group 3: Market Information - US 2024/2025 soybean export net sales were 50.3 tons in the week ending July 3, up 9% from the previous week. 2025/2026 net sales were 24.8 tons. Exports to China were zero in both years [3] - CONAB expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.694879 billion tons, up 14.7% year - on - year and down 0.1% month - on - month [4] - MPOB data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in June were 1259354 tons, down 10.52% month - on - month; production was 1692310 tons, down 4.48% month - on - month; inventory was 2030580 tons, up 2.41% month - on - month [1][4] Group 4: Variety Spreads - Contract spreads are presented for corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, eggs 9 - 1, and hogs 9 - 1 [5][6][8][9][13] - Contract basis is presented for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs [14][15][19][20][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][4][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the short - term upward trend of domestic Zhengzhou cotton is supported by tight inventory expectations, but the new - year Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a good harvest, and demand is limited by the trade war. After the new cotton is concentrated on the market, there will be significant pressure on cotton prices [2] - For sugar, the third - quarter Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, and the arrival rhythm of imported sugar needs to be focused on [4] - For pulp, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to ease, and the industrial chain lacks positive drivers. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,865 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,175 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,196 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The US USDA reported that as of the week of July 3, the net signing of US upland cotton this year was 17,000 tons, and the shipment was 55,000 tons, with 272 tons net - signed to China and no shipment that week [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather story is insufficient this year. With the expected increase in production in Brazil and China, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate following the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory provides short - term support for Zhengzhou cotton, but the increase in domestic cotton planting area and good growth of new cotton may lead to increased production. Weak demand in the off - season and accelerated inventory accumulation of finished products restrict the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton. In the long - term, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term strength of Zhengzhou cotton is affected by tight inventory expectations, but the new - year Xinjiang cotton is expected to be abundant, and demand is difficult to increase due to the trade war. Cotton prices will face pressure after the new cotton is concentrated on the market [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,805 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (+0.45%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,895 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The Philippines SRA approved the import of 424,000 tons of sugar to maintain stable supply [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, the high sugar - making ratio in Brazil and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand will suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term. In the short - term, the supply - side pressure has been largely reflected, and there is a possibility of a rebound. For Zhengzhou sugar, the fast sales progress of domestic sugar this season and low industrial inventory make the spot price firm. However, the increase in import profit and the expected arrival of subsequent shipments will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range in the third quarter, and the arrival rhythm of imported sugar needs to be focused on [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,196 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+1.76%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price showed an upward trend, with different price adjustments in different regions and pulp types [5] Market Analysis - Supply: The import volume of wood pulp increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. However, slow de - stocking at ports and high inventory levels keep the supply pressure high. Demand: Affected by the tariff policy and the traditional off - season, global and domestic pulp demand is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [6] Strategy - Neutral. The contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to ease, and the industrial chain lacks positive drivers. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short term [6]

油料日报 | 2025-07-11 花生现货行情持续僵持，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4105.00元/吨，较前日变化-6.00元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A09+195，较前日变化+6，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周三，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货连续第三个交易日收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低1%，主 要原因是美国贸易政策前景令人担忧，中西部天气条件良好，投机基金抛售。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌5.75美分到 12.25美分不等，其中7月期约下跌12美分，报收1012.25美分/蒲;8月期约下跌12.25美分，报收1009美分/蒲;11月期约 下跌10.25美分，报收1007.25美分/蒲。7月11日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15 元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江 佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一 等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 7 月 10 日 【粕类日报】短期扰动有限 盘面震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/7/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2993 | - 4 | 天津 | -70 | -90 | 2 0 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2704 | 0 | | -160 | -160 | 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2954 | 7 | | -150 | -170 | 2 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -140 | -160 | 2 0 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2316 | 3 | 南通 | -201 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product daily report released on July 10, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn markets [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 closed at 13810 with a 25-point increase, CF05 at 13790 (20-point increase), CF09 at 13865 (35-point increase), CY01 at 19980 (25-point increase), CY05 at 19915 (no change), and CY09 at 20030 (45-point increase) [3] - Trading volumes and open interest of various contracts showed different changes [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15196 yuan/ton with a 3-yuan increase, and Cot A was 78.15 cents/pound with a 0.60-cent decrease [3] - Price changes were also observed in other spot prices such as CY IndexC32S, FCY IndexC33S, etc [3] Price Spreads - Cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads had different changes, e.g., the 1 - 5 spread of cotton was 20 with a 5 - point increase [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of June 23, 2025, the cotton planting area in India was 5.466 million hectares, 0.531 million hectares lower than the previous year, with a target of 12.95 million hectares [6] - During July 3 - 9, 2025, the weekly rainfall in Indian cotton - growing areas was 85.4mm, higher than normal and last year [6] - As of July 6, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 13,000 tons, a 59% year - on - year decline, and the cumulative listing volume for 2024/25 was 4.9356 million tons, a 5% decline [7] - The current cotton commercial inventory and imports are at low levels, but the potential issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas and trade uncertainties may limit the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton [8] Trading Strategies for Cotton - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [9] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11] - Options: Sell put options [11] Cotton Yarn Industry - The cotton yarn market is still sluggish with insufficient orders, and prices are expected to remain stable or slightly bullish [10] - The all - cotton grey fabric market is also quiet, with low production willingness of weaving factories [13] Group 4: Options - The 30 - day HV of cotton increased slightly today, and the implied volatilities of different options were 9.1%, 9.7%, and 13.8% respectively [15] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed that the bearish sentiment in the market increased [16] - Option strategy: Sell put options [17] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts such as the price spread of domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton contracts [18][19][20]