2026年01月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：美元承压，价格偏强 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：24000一线震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：高位震荡 | 10 | | 铂：跟随黄金白银回调但趋势并未反转 | 12 | | 钯：找底后继续演绎 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a short-term divergence, with expectations of a gradual convergence in the medium term as companies begin to disclose annual and quarterly reports post-Spring Festival, shifting market focus from risk appetite and valuation expansion to performance realization and profit growth [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 27, the A-share market showed weakness, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.90% [1]. - The precious metals sector rebounded, with companies like Yuguang Gold Lead achieving three consecutive trading limits [1]. - The AI application sector was active, with stocks such as Jiuqi Software, Sanwei Communication, Kevin Education, and Yaowang Technology hitting the daily limit [1][2]. - The commercial aerospace concept saw a rebound, with companies like Electric Science Chip reaching the daily limit [1][4]. - Conversely, the pharmaceutical sector experienced a pullback, with consumer goods and photovoltaic sectors showing significant declines [1]. Group 2: Sector Insights - The AI application sector is highlighted for its activity, with notable stocks like Zhidema and Hongjing Technology showing positive net inflows and price increases [3][2]. - The commercial aerospace sector is also noted for its recovery, with significant price increases in stocks like Triangle Defense and Western Materials, driven by new tender announcements for commercial launch projects [5][4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the market's short-term divergence is likely to continue, with a shift in focus towards performance verification and profit growth as the earnings reporting season approaches [6]. - Guojin Securities emphasizes a shift in asset allocation towards physical assets and Chinese assets, highlighting sectors such as copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as domestic manufacturing and consumption recovery channels [7]. - Dongfang Securities notes that while recent market fluctuations have changed the operational rhythm, the overall market structure remains intact, favoring a rational slow bull market with a focus on "technology sectors + resource products" as the main investment route before the Spring Festival [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to be strong, but the large inflow of speculative funds has also increased price volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading mindset but control position sizes, while short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [4] - Geopolitical risks, the safe - haven demand brought by the US mid - term elections, the liquidity premium from global central banks' joint easing, and the weakening of the US dollar exchange rate will drive the price of London gold to 5300 - 5500 US dollars per ounce in 2026 [6] - The price of London silver is expected to rise to 130 - 145 US dollars per ounce in 2026, London platinum to 3000 - 3200 US dollars per ounce, and London palladium to 2200 - 2350 US dollars per ounce [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Geopolitical risks have increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals, and the weakening of the US dollar index has enhanced the pricing currency factor. As a result, external precious metal prices have continued to rise. London gold has broken through the 5100 US dollars per ounce mark, and industrial precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium have seen larger increases. The adjustment risk in the precious metal market was fully released in late December 2025 [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Due to Trump's new policy focus shifting to the military, the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the central banks' shift from balance - sheet reduction to expansion, the US dollar index will continue to be weak. This, along with other factors, will push the price of London gold to 5300 - 5500 US dollars per ounce in 2026 [6] - The silver price may reach higher levels due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and low inventory. The price of London silver is expected to reach 130 - 145 US dollars per ounce in 2026 [6] - The price of London platinum is expected to reach 3000 - 3200 US dollars per ounce in 2026, and the price of London palladium is expected to be 2200 - 2350 US dollars per ounce [6] 3.2 Precious Metal Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au(T + D), gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12] 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canada if it reaches and advances a trade agreement with China. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau encouraged Canadians to buy domestic products without directly responding to the threat [18] - Japanese Prime Minister Hayasaka Sanae said the government will take necessary measures against speculative market movements. The yen's sharp depreciation near the 160 mark against the US dollar led to speculation about US - Japan joint intervention [18] - In January, the US business activity remained stable. The improvement in new orders was offset by a weak labor market and concerns about cost increases due to tariffs. The preliminary US composite PMI in January was 52.8, and the final University of Michigan consumer confidence index rose to 56.4, with the one - year inflation expectation dropping to 4.0% [18] - An Iranian senior official warned that any attack would be regarded as a full - scale war. Trump said the US has a fleet heading to Iran but hopes not to use it, and he also warned Iran not to kill protesters or restart the nuclear program [19]

Market Overview - On January 26, A-shares experienced a mixed adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 0.85% and 0.91%, respectively. The STAR 50 Index dropped by 1.35%, and only the CSI 300 Index saw a minor increase of 0.1% [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 3.25 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 163 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with 1,538 stocks rising and 3,547 stocks falling. The net outflow of main funds was 121.6 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Precious metals, particularly silver, led the market with an increase of 10.89%, with 8 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - Aerospace and military electronics sectors, including space station and phased array antenna concepts, saw significant declines [1] Company Highlights - Silver-related companies gained attention due to the recovery of precious metal concepts and the overall activity in the non-ferrous metal sector. Silver's dual industrial and financial attributes align with current market trends, attracting speculative and quantitative funds despite its lower revenue contribution [2] - Zijin Mining's significant investment plan to acquire an African gold mine for 28 billion yuan is a key driver of its popularity, reflecting a forward-looking strategy in resource allocation amid global industrial upgrades [2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals benefits from tightening supply and demand in the global copper market, with increasing demand from the new energy and high-end manufacturing sectors driving copper prices up. The company has achieved technological breakthroughs in high-end products and is expected to enhance its resource self-sufficiency through its Ecuador Mirador copper mine project [2] - Hunan Silver, a leading player in the domestic silver processing sector, has performed well amid the overall strength of the non-ferrous metal sector, supported by institutional investment and multiple concept attributes [2] Emerging Trends - Zhejiang Wenhu Internet's business layout aligns with market trends, launching the "Pai Zhi" programmatic advertising tool in the AI marketing field and experiencing rapid growth in its digital human business in collaboration with ByteDance [3] - Wangsu Technology benefits from the explosive demand for AI computing power and the rising popularity of the cloud computing sector, with its strategic transition to edge computing nodes receiving unexpected orders [3] - Da'an Gene's focus on the "Nipah virus" testing theme resonates with market trends, leveraging its position as a leader in the molecular diagnostic reagent industry [3] - Leo Group is in a critical business transformation phase, focusing on AI applications and digital marketing, which has attracted market attention [3] Popular Stocks - The top ten popular stocks in A-shares include Silver Nonferrous Metals, Zijin Mining, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Hunan Silver, Zhejiang Wenhu Internet, Wangsu Technology, Da'an Gene, Leo Group, Aerospace Electronics, and BlueFocus [3]

Company News - Zijin Mining announced a cash acquisition of Allied Gold Corporation at a price of 44 CAD per share, totaling approximately 5.5 billion CAD (about 28 billion RMB) [9] - Zhejiang Wen Internet reported a stock price increase of 69.57% from January 5 to January 26, indicating potential market overreaction and risks of a rapid decline [9] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced a stock price deviation of 20.72% over two trading days, with normal production and operational conditions [9] - Crystal Clear Technology plans to acquire 100% of Easy Charge Technology through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, pending necessary approvals [10] - Xingyu Co., Ltd. submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [10] - JD Infrastructure Development submitted an A1 application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, managing assets totaling approximately 121.5 billion RMB [10] - Guoxing Aerospace revealed its "Star Computing" plan, involving a network of 2,400 reasoning satellites and 400 training satellites for high-speed data transmission [11] - Evert announced plans to acquire shares of Shanghai Shengpu Fluid Equipment Co., Ltd., with stock suspension effective from January 27 [11] - Yushu Technology's humanoid robots will participate in the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, marking a significant industry collaboration [11] - Tensu Zhixin released a roadmap for its fourth-generation architecture, aiming to surpass NVIDIA's Rubin architecture by 2027 [11] - Anta Sports agreed to purchase 43.01 million shares of PUMA SE for a total consideration of approximately 1.507 billion euros (about 12.278 billion RMB) [12] - Alibaba launched the Qwen3-Max-Thinking model, boasting over one trillion parameters and competitive performance [12] - Tencent's CEO emphasized a decentralized AI strategy for WeChat, focusing on user needs and privacy [12] Industry Insights - The humanoid robot market is projected to exceed traditional rotary transformer markets, with an expected market size of 6.15 billion RMB by 2030 and 47.1 billion RMB by 2035 [6] - The sodium battery industry is at a critical commercialization stage, with major players like CATL launching mass-produced sodium batteries [6] - The satellite communication sector is experiencing rapid growth, with a 40% increase in the satellite communication index over the past two months [6] - The domestic tourism market is seeing a 300% increase in booking numbers compared to last year, driven by various travel preferences [6] - The commercial aerospace sector in Hainan is expanding, with a budget of approximately 220 million RMB for upcoming launch tasks [6] - The production and delivery pace of the C919 aircraft is set to increase, with a target of at least 28 deliveries in 2026 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market reached a milestone on January 26, 2026, as both spot gold and COMEX gold futures prices surpassed the psychological threshold of $5,000 per ounce, marking the highest record in financial history. This breakout has led to aggressive buying in the options market, indicating strong consensus among market players for a "bull market second half" in gold [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On the day of the price surge, gold prices increased by 2.5%, surpassing the $5,100 mark, which also boosted the entire metal sector. This rally is partly attributed to the resumption of "fiat currency devaluation trades," as investors shift from sovereign bonds and currencies to hard assets like gold and silver for safety [1]. - The breakthrough of the $5,000 level triggered a rare "gamma squeeze" effect in the options market, forcing many volatility sellers to cover their positions in both spot and futures markets, further driving up gold prices [4]. - The implied volatility of gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange has reached its highest level since the onset of the global pandemic in March 2020, with significant activity in call spreads indicating bullish sentiment among traders [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are actively buying call spreads on SPDR Gold Shares, including approximately 70,000 contracts for the September 590/595 spread and 37,000 contracts for the March 510/515 spread, indicating a low-cost strategy to position for further price increases in the coming months [5]. - According to analysts, if the ETF price rises by 10.1%, the potential return on the March position could reach 420% [5]. Group 3: Institutional Inflows - In January, the U.S. listed gold ETF sector saw a total inflow of $4.7 billion, with over half directed towards SPDR Gold Shares, reflecting strong institutional inflows and proactive long positions by market makers in anticipation of the $5,000 breakthrough [6]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and expectations of dollar depreciation are driving demand for gold, as institutional investors increase their allocation to gold in their asset portfolios to historical highs [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Major Wall Street banks have quickly raised their price targets for gold in 2026, with Goldman Sachs indicating that the $5,000 breakthrough signifies a "sovereign value revaluation" phase, raising its year-end target to $5,400. Bank of America is even more optimistic, predicting that gold could reach $6,000 if geopolitical tensions do not ease [9]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, analysts caution that entering the "vacuum zone" above $5,000 may lead to increased volatility, necessitating vigilance against potential high-level fluctuations driven by momentum trading [9].

Group 1 - The North Exchange's new share subscription has frozen 1.0588 trillion yuan, setting a record, attracting significant cash due to its cash subscription model, which differs from the lottery-based model of the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges [3] - The recent volatility in precious metals, with gold briefly rising to $5,110 before falling below $5,000 and silver experiencing a 14% surge followed by a decline, is seen as normal short-term fluctuation, with long-term trends remaining intact [4] - The U.S. government's investment of $1.6 billion in domestic rare earth companies, acquiring a 10% stake, highlights the strategic value of rare earths, reinforcing the importance of companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth in the global market [4] Group 2 - The recent surge in active equity funds, with a notable 7 billion yuan in new subscriptions, indicates a shift in market sentiment, suggesting renewed confidence in fund managers' stock-picking abilities [5] - The acquisition of overseas gold assets by Zijin Mining for 28 billion yuan signals a bullish outlook on gold prices, reflecting confidence in the long-term value of the gold sector [6] - The focus on "resource products + high technology" as key investment themes suggests that investors should concentrate on sectors like rare earths and humanoid robotics for future opportunities [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently affected by geopolitical disturbances and a weak US dollar, platinum and palladium prices have significantly increased with the precious metals sector [1]. - The short - term trends of platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillatingly strong, and investors can consider low - buying opportunities, but should be wary of increased short - term price volatility [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 744.7 yuan/gram, with a 9.68% increase [1]. - Main logic: Geopolitical and trade frictions have damaged market confidence in US government policy stability and US dollar credit. The strengthening of the Japanese yen has also pressured the US dollar. The nomination of the new Fed chairman and US tariff expectations for platinum and palladium are key market factors. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify long - term price elasticity [2]. - Outlook: Oscillatingly strong, as the supply - demand fundamentals are healthy and the macro - expectations are positive [2]. Palladium - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 534.8 yuan/gram, with a 7.17% increase [1]. - Main logic: Besides the weak US dollar and geopolitical disturbances, the supply side has significant uncertainties. The US Department of Commerce's report on unforged palladium imported from Russia has not been released, and the spot shortage continues to support prices. In the short term, palladium shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate cut cycle support the bottom of the palladium price [3]. - Outlook: Oscillatingly strong, due to the spot shortage and relatively favorable macro - environment [3]. Index Information - On January 26, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was presented, including the commodity index (2503.03, +1.13%), the commodity 20 index (2879.55, +1.44%), and the industrial products index (2369.84, +0.40%) [49]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 26, 2026, had a daily increase of +0.07%, a 5 - day increase of +1.31%, a 1 - month increase of +7.62%, and a year - to - date increase of +5.37% [51].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Daily Report 2026 - 01 - 27 [1] - Researcher: Zhong Junxuan, Precious Metals Researcher, Qualification No.: F03112694, Trading Consultation No.: Z0022090 [2] Group 2: Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (SHFE) rose 1.49% to 1,148.14 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver (SHFE) rose 9.93% to 29,005.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold was reported at 5,015.60 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver was reported at 103.24 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.22%, and the US Dollar Index was reported at 97.07 [2] - US Q3 PCE price index quarterly -环比 annualized value was 2.8%, lower than the expected 3.5%; Q3 core PCE price index quarterly -环比 annualized value was 2.9%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The US November core PCE price index year - on - year value was 2.8%, in line with expectations. The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9, lower than the expected 52; January S&P Global Services PMI was 52.5, lower than the expected 52.8; the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the expected 53 [3] Group 3: Strategy Views - The previous strong performance of gold and silver prices reflects concerns about the US dollar credit and the stability of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and their price increases have a solid macro - driving force [3] - The outflow of COMEX inventory caused by the suspension of US tariffs cannot ease the tight spot situation of silver. The current volatility of silver futures is also at a historical high. In the short term, attention should be paid to the callback risk, and it is recommended to temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude. The reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1,060 - 1,150 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 23,690 - 27,000 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Key Data Summary Gold - COMEX Gold: The closing price of the active contract was 5,004.80 dollars/ounce (up 0.44% from 4,983.10), trading volume was 42.18 million lots (up 54.13% from 27.37), and the position was 52.80 million lots (up 0.10% from 52.75) [5] - LBMA Gold: The closing price was 5,090.80 dollars/ounce (up 2.92% from 4,946.25), and the inventory was 1,118 tons (down 0.56% from 1,124) [5] - SHFE Gold: The closing price of the active contract was 1,143.32 yuan/gram (up 2.48% from 1,115.64), trading volume was 57.94 million lots (up 33.67% from 43.35), position was 38.08 million lots (up 3.96% from 36.63), inventory was 103.03 tons (up 1.00% from 102.01), and the settled funds were 69.664 billion yuan (inflow of 6.54% from 65.389 billion) [5] - AuT + D: The closing price was 1,144.26 yuan/gram (up 3.05% from 1,110.35), trading volume was 82.85 tons (up 52.67% from 54.27), and the position was 218.35 tons (up 4.81% from 208.32) [5] Silver - COMEX Silver: The closing price of the active contract was 103.89 dollars/ounce (up 0.61% from 103.26), the position was 15.20 million lots (up 0.33% from 15.15), and the inventory was 12,915 tons (down 0.28% from 12,952) [5] - LBMA Silver: The closing price was 109.61 dollars/ounce (up 10.71% from 99.00) [5] - SHFE Silver: The closing price of the active contract was 27,207.00 yuan/kilogram (up 8.98% from 24,965.00), trading volume was 237.63 million lots (up 29.68% from 183.24), position was 73.05 million lots (up 3.07% from 70.88), inventory was 573.81 tons (down 1.25% from 581.09), and the settled funds were 53.664 billion yuan (inflow of 12.33% from 47.774 billion) [5] - AgT + D: The closing price was 27,513.00 yuan/kilogram (up 10.10% from 24,988.00), trading volume was 702.20 tons (up 61.02% from 436.09), and the position was 3,360.232 tons (up 2.05% from 3,292.636) [5] Group 5: Price - Related Charts - Multiple charts show the relationships between precious metals prices (such as COMEX Gold, Shanghai Gold, COMEX Silver, Shanghai Silver), trading volume, open interest, and other factors over different time periods, including historical price trends, price - volume relationships, and price structures of near - and far - month contracts [10][20][25] Group 6: Internal - External Price Difference Gold - On January 26, 2026, for SHFE - COMEX, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 86.87 dollars/ounce; for SGE - LBMA, the SGE - LBMA spread was 93.56 dollars/ounce [45] Silver - On January 26, 2026, for SHFE - COMEX, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 18.68 dollars/ounce [45]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices have surpassed $5,100 per ounce, reaching a historical high, with silver prices also rising concurrently. This price increase is driven by both safe-haven and monetary attributes [1] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves to optimize foreign exchange structures and reduce reliance on single sovereign currencies. Private investors are also incorporating gold into their asset allocations to hedge against uncertainties [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target price for gold from $4,900 to $5,400, citing ongoing global policy uncertainties and potential for further price increases in precious metals [1] Group 2: Industry and Company Insights - Zijin Mining is engaged in the exploration, development, and smelting of gold and copper, with a projected net profit for 2025 between 51 billion and 52 billion yuan [2] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining focuses on gold mining and smelting, expecting a net profit for 2025 in the range of 3 billion to 3.2 billion yuan [2] - Shengda Resources specializes in the mining and sales of silver and gold, holding nearly 10,000 tons of silver reserves [3] - Shandong Zhaojin Refining has achieved record processing volumes in gold and silver refining, with significant growth in gold repurchase business [4] - Yuguang Gold Lead is a major silver production base in China, utilizing unique processes for efficient precious metal recovery [4] - Lao Feng Xiang is involved in the research, design, production, and sales of gold jewelry, with gold jewelry prices reaching historical highs [5] - China Gold focuses on gold retail and brand operations, benefiting from the rising demand in the physical gold consumption market [6]