1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no content regarding the report industry investment rating in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the government bond futures market, last week, all bond futures contracts closed higher, with the 30 - year and 10 - year contracts showing relatively large increases. The basis of each variety was differentiated. The market risk preference weakened, activating the hedging attribute of bond futures. The downward trend of government bond futures is not easy to reverse when the long - term bullish logic of the stock market remains unchanged and the coupon income of government bonds is not attractive. Only when the expected return of equity or risk assets declines marginally, the short - term hedging trading attribute of the bond market is more obvious [5]. - In the commodity CTA market, due to the outbreak of the US - Iran war, many domestic commodity varieties rose, especially in the energy - chemical sector. The volatility factor rose significantly, while the price - volume trend and value factors with longer - term positions suffered large losses. The term structure factor performed well. In the short term, the market may fluctuate more due to geopolitical games, and investors are advised to diversify risks and avoid over - concentrated positions [12][15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government Bond Futures Quantitative Strategy 3.1.1 Market Review - Last week, all bond futures contracts closed higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.63%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.09%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. The basis of each variety was differentiated. The CTD bond of the 10 - year bond was 250025, and the basis on the 6th was about 0.06 yuan, slightly lower than the historical average. The CTD bond of the 30 - year bond was 210014, and the basis on the 27th was 0.54 yuan, slightly higher than the historical average [5]. 3.1.2 Daily - frequency Timing Strategy for Government Bond Futures - For the 10 - year government bond, from 2021/01/01 to the present, the annualized return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown of the single - leverage portfolio were 2.78%, 1.31, and 2.13% respectively. Since the report was released (2025/11/01 to the present), the corresponding figures were 2.98%, 1.85, and 0.67% respectively [5]. 3.1.3 Unilateral Strategy Performance - The strategy uses factors such as basis, intraday technical, intraday volume - price, high - frequency capital flow, member positions, and risk assets. The signals are generated by equal - weighting and averaging within each factor category, and the sign of the average is used as the long - short signal. The strategy trades at the VWAP of the first ten minutes of the next - day's opening with single - leverage buying [10]. 3.2 Commodity CTA Factor and Strategy Performance 3.2.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Affected by the US - Iran war, many domestic commodity varieties rose, especially in the energy - chemical sector. The volatility factor rose nearly 5%, while the price - volume trend and value factors with longer - term positions suffered large losses. The term structure factor performed well. In the short term, the market may fluctuate more due to geopolitical games, and investors are advised to diversify risks [12][15]. 3.2.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different strategies have different performance indicators. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.3%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.60, a Calmar ratio of 1.05, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%. The C_frontnext & Short Trend strategy has an annualized return of 11.5%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.75, a Calmar ratio of 1.70, and a maximum drawdown of - 6.72%. The Long CWFT & Short CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 12.5%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.41, a Calmar ratio of 0.96, and a maximum drawdown of - 13.07% [13]. - Among the six strategies, the Long CWFT & Short CWFT strategy performed best last week with a return of 1.87% and also performed best since the beginning of this year with a return of 4.36%. The equal - weighted composite strategy of cross - sectional strategies has an annualized return of 12.7%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.82, a Calmar ratio of 1.72, a maximum drawdown of - 7.38%, a recent weekly return of 0.47%, and a return of 2.62% since the beginning of this year [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, ferroalloys continued to be volatile and strong. The geopolitical conflict in Iran triggered a sharp rise in the crude oil and energy - chemical sectors, increasing the global energy supply chain risk. The sentiment spilled over to the coal sector, strengthening the energy attribute of coal. The oil - coal prices moved in the same long - term direction, and the oil price drove up the coking coal price, raising the cost support for ferroalloys and potentially lifting the price center of ferroalloys [2]. - From the perspective of the ferroalloy fundamentals, on the supply side, the production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. Although the improvement in ferroalloy prices has marginally increased ferroalloy profits, the profits are still in the red, so the drive for复产 is relatively weak, and the supply - side pressure is relatively small. The production of ferrosilicon decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, and that of silicomanganese decreased by 0.79% month - on - month, with the supply side continuing to shrink. On the demand side, production restrictions during the Two Sessions led to a short - term decline in hot metal, but it will return to normal levels later. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is about 40%, and the possibility of a significant increase in production is low. Although the blast furnace profits have declined due to inventory accumulation and the rise in raw material prices, hot metal production is not likely to be cut immediately, providing some support for ferroalloy demand, but the support may be limited, and future steel tenders need to be monitored [3]. - In terms of inventory, the ferrosilicon inventory is at a neutral level, with the enterprise inventory at 66,200 tons, a 5.85% month - on - month decrease; the silicomanganese inventory is 387,300 tons, a 2.76% month - on - month decrease. Although there is destocking on a month - on - month basis, the inventory is still at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, and the destocking pressure is large. If the silicomanganese price continues to rise, there will be a driving force for the industrial end to enter the market for hedging. The price of manganese ore is supported by miners, and the price is firm. In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak terminal demand for downstream steel and the high inventory pressure of steel plates limit the upward movement of ferroalloy prices [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: Ferroalloy cost support limits the downside space. Manganese ore news causes price fluctuations, and manganese ore miners support prices. The geopolitical conflict in Iran triggers a sharp rise in the crude oil and energy - chemical sectors, increasing the global energy supply chain risk. The sentiment spills over to the coal sector, strengthening the energy attribute of coal. The oil - coal prices move in the same long - term direction, and the oil price drives up the coking coal price [7]. - **Long - term trading expectations**: Anti - involution expectations, accelerating the comprehensive green and low - carbon transformation, and effectively controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects from next year, as well as the 14th Five - Year Plan [7]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Range - bound and bullish. - **Price range**: The price range of the ferrosilicon 05 contract is between 5,600 - 6,400, and that of the silicomanganese 05 contract is between 5,900 - 6,500 [7]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies [7][10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Ferroalloy price range forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.72% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 35.0%. For silicomanganese, the monthly price range forecast is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.54% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 25.8% [8]. - **Ferroalloy hedging**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about ferroalloy price drops, short ferroalloy futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a recommended entry range of 5,800 - 6,000 for ferrosilicon and 6,000 - 6,200 for silicomanganese. For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and there is a need to purchase according to orders, buy ferroalloy futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 5,200 - 5,300 for ferrosilicon and 5,300 - 5,400 for silicomanganese [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The rise in crude oil prices drives up coking coal, increasing the cost support for ferroalloys. Hot metal supports ferroalloy demand. Ferroalloy production profits are in the red, so a low - production strategy is maintained. Manganese ore quotes are firm, with the price rising month - on - month. Silicomanganese destocked on a month - on - month basis this week [11][12][16]. - **Negative information**: The silicomanganese inventory is at a high level, the highest in the past five years, with large destocking pressure. The increasing number of warehouse receipts exerts some pressure on the market. The downstream terminal steel consumption is average, and the terminal consumption has not officially started. The hot - rolled coil inventory is at a historical high in the same period [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Monday, China will announce the CPI for February. - Next Tuesday, China will announce the M2 supply for February. - Next Wednesday, the United States will announce the unadjusted CPI at the end of February. - Next Thursday, the United States will announce the initial jobless claims for the week [17]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and capital movement**: Analyzed the closing prices and positions of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, but no specific conclusions are given [18][19]. - **Basis and calendar spread structure**: Analyzed the term - structure spreads of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and coking coal, as well as the seasonal patterns of the basis and calendar spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, but no specific conclusions are given [20][21][24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Analyzed the production profits and output of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market prices and production costs of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, the seasonal electricity prices of ferroalloys in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the inventory structure and price of coking coal, the import profits of coking coal, the seasonal patterns of coal shipping volume, sea - floating volume, manganese ore price, port inventory, shipping volume, etc., but no specific conclusions are given [39][41][44]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between the export profit and export volume of ferrosilicon, but no specific conclusions are given [63]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - On the supply side, the production profits of ferroalloys have marginally improved but are still in the red. The possibility of large - scale production cuts is low, and the ferroalloy output will fluctuate slightly at the current level, with the decline trend gradually flattening and starting to pick up. On the demand side, steel mills have a good profit situation and a drive to resume production, and the hot - metal output is rising, supporting ferroalloy demand. The ferroalloy inventory is at a high level, and the silicomanganese enterprise inventory is at the highest level in the past five years, with large inventory pressure. Destocking may still need to be achieved through production cuts [64]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Analyzed the predicted seasonal patterns of the weekly output of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the relationship between production profits and output, and the relationship between hot - metal output and ferroalloy output, but no specific conclusions are given [67][69][72]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - Analyzed the predicted seasonal patterns of the weekly demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in five major steel products, the relationship between hot - metal output, steel enterprise profitability, and ferroalloy demand, as well as the relationship between silicomanganese demand and steel production profits, but no specific conclusions are given [76][81][83]. 5.4 Inventory - Side and Projections - Analyzed the predicted seasonal patterns of the weekly enterprise inventory, warehouse receipt quantity, and total inventory (warehouse receipt + factory inventory) of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, but no specific conclusions are given [94][96][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current photovoltaic industry is at the bottom of the capacity cycle, showing a "weak supply and demand" characteristic. The supply side of polysilicon has seen a decline in production, and the demand side of downstream silicon wafers, cells, and components is also under pressure. The industry is in a contraction state, and the inventory is at a historical high. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern [3]. - The Middle East war may increase the demand for distributed energy in various countries. Photovoltaic, as the core supply pillar of distributed green power, will become the main incremental force of the distributed power grid along with wind power. The global energy transformation trend is irreversible, and photovoltaic is the core track of energy structure transformation [4]. - In the short - term (before mid - 2026), the trading logic focuses on changes in technical trends and supply - side production reduction. In the long - term (after mid - 2026), it focuses on the anti - involution process, inventory consumption, and the demand for distributed power grids in various countries [6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors leading to the sharp decline in polysilicon futures prices this week include the anti - involution progress, supply - side production resumption, downstream demand - side production scheduling, and inventory consumption [3]. - The industry's fundamentals show "weak supply and demand." The supply side of polysilicon has a declining production trend, and the demand side of downstream links is also under pressure. The overall industry is in a contraction state, and the inventory is at a historical high [3]. 3.1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - Polysilicon futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 28.63%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 83.6% [10]. - Different hedging suggestions are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% to 20% [10]. 3.2 Market Information - On March 5, 2026, the government work report was released [11]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - This week, the polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 41,576 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.09%. The trading volume was 10,741 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7.36%, and the open interest was 58,536 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7,167 lots [13][15]. - The MACD and moving averages (daily level) show that the polysilicon futures price has fallen below the 5 - day moving average and entered a downward channel. The Bollinger Bands (daily level) show that the price is running near the lower band, and the overall trend of the Bollinger Bands is still downward [15]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of polysilicon has been strengthening in a volatile manner. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has shown a wide - range volatile strengthening trend, and the PCR of option open interest has been weakening marginally [17]. - The long - position scale of key profitable seats in polysilicon has shown a slow decline in the past week [19]. - The term structure of polysilicon futures presents a contango structure. The basis of the main contract has shown a volatile and strengthening trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of taking goods from the futures market [21][23]. 3.3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon and related products such as silicon wafers, cells, and components have shown different degrees of changes. For example, the price of N - type granular silicon has decreased by 12.00% week - on - week, while the price of some distributed components has increased slightly [27]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profit of polysilicon enterprises is weakening. From the spot market, the spot profit of polysilicon is declining. In terms of production process, the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method [28]. - Based on the accounting model with industrial silicon and electricity as the main cost components, the gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 14.61% [28]. 3.5 Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Polysilicon Supply - Domestic polysilicon weekly production shows different trends. SMM's weekly production is 18,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.05%, while Baichuan's weekly production is 19,330 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.90% [37]. - Overseas polysilicon monthly production and monthly capacity utilization rate data are provided [39]. - The net export of domestic polysilicon shows seasonal characteristics. The domestic polysilicon weekly inventory is at a high level, with different changes in various inventory types [41][42]. 3.5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - The weekly production of silicon wafers is 11.08 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%, and the weekly inventory is 29.01 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 6.60% [45]. - The monthly net export of silicon wafers shows seasonal characteristics [48]. 3.5.3 Cell Supply - The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of cells show seasonal characteristics. The weekly inventory of cells is 8.72 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 6.34% [52][56]. 3.5.4 Photovoltaic Module Supply - The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic modules show seasonal characteristics. The weekly inventory of photovoltaic modules is 28.4 GW, a week - on - week increase of 15.92% [59][62]. - The monthly net export of photovoltaic modules shows seasonal characteristics [61]. 3.5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic module winning bids show that the winning bid capacity is 1,309.96 MW, a week - on - week increase of 194.96%, and the winning bid average price is 0.76 yuan/watt, a week - on - week increase of 1.33% [64]. 3.5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new installation volume of Chinese photovoltaics shows seasonal characteristics. The data of Chinese green power generation and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation are also provided [68][70].

近日，中国期货业协会（下称中期协）公布了1月期货公司总体经营数据，当月期货公司合计净利润接近18 亿元，同比增长超两倍，大幅超出预期。 南华研究院高级总监边舒扬分析指出，期货公司近期的利润增长主要依赖三大引擎：其一是经纪业务爆发，高 波动率刺激实体企业套保与投机需求，经纪手续费收入激增；其二是风险管理业务贡献，期货公司通过子公司 提供基差贸易、场外期权等定制化服务，赚取稳定服务收入与贸易差价；其三是资管业务扩容，CTA策略产品 在波动市中收益显著，叠加代销基金业务扩张，管理费与业绩报酬成为利润新支点。 根据中国期货市场监控中心数据，2025年，我国期货市场资金总量持续快速增长。截至2025年底，期货市场资 金总量约2.15万亿元，较2024年底增长约32%；期货公司客户权益合计达2万亿元，较2024年底增长约31%。 2026年1月，期货市场资金总量进一步增长，截至1月末，期货市场资金总量增至约2.57万亿元，较2025年底增 长约20%；期货公司客户权益增至约2.39万亿元，较2025年底增长约19%。 "1月期货市场资金总量突破2.57万亿元，单月激增超4000亿元，创历史新高；期货公司客户权益达2.39 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market is expected to be volatile and bullish as the energy attribute of coking coal further develops [3] - The market trading logic mainly revolves around two aspects: the fermentation of the energy attribute of coking coal due to geopolitical disturbances and the rapid switching of seat funds' rhythm [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - **Supply**: For coal, FW raw coal was 861.33 (+164.96), and FW clean coal was 443.20 (+93.65). For coke, the daily average output of independent coking plants was 63.9 (-0.4), and that of steel - mill coking enterprises was 47.0 (-0.1) [8] - **Demand**: The iron - water output was 227.59 (-5.69) for both coal and coke [8] - **Inventory**: The MS total inventory of coal decreased by 22.1, with an increase of 14.51 in mine clean coal, 4.93 in mine raw coal, a decrease of 49.4 in independent coking plants, a decrease of 16.8 in steel - mill coking plants, a decrease of 13.8 in ports, and an increase of 24.9 in ports. The MS total inventory of coke increased by 7.6, with an increase of 2.5 in independent coking plants, a decrease of 3.8 in steel - mill coking plants, and an increase of 9.0 in ports [8] - **Profit**: The profit of commercial coal was 441 (-18), and the average profit of coking enterprises was 60 (+12) [8] - **Warehouse Receipt**: The warehouse receipt of Meng 5 in Tangshan was 1175 for coal, and the warehouse receipt of quasi - dry quenched coke in ports was 1700 for coke [8] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply - Weekly**: The 523 - sample mine production rate, raw coal output, and clean coal output data are presented, showing the production status from 2022 to 2026 [10] - **Supply - Monthly**: The monthly production data of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal from 2019 to 2025 are provided [12] - **Supply - Mongolian Coal Clearance**: The clearance volume data of Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports from 2021 to 2026 are shown, as well as the total clearance volume of the three ports [14][16][17][19] - **Inventory**: - **Pit - mouth**: The raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 2.7 tons to 177.25 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 8 tons to 129.02 tons this week [24] - **Port**: The coking coal port inventory was 271.97 tons this week, a week - on - week increase of 13.56 tons [26] - **Coking Plant**: The inventory and average available days of coking coal in independent coking plants are presented, including regional and capacity - based data [29][31][33] - **Steel Mill**: The inventory and average available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their sample coking plants are shown, including regional data [35] 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply - Capacity Utilization**: - **Coking Plant**: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises (full - sample and 230 - sample), different capacity levels, and different regions are presented [38] - **Steel Mill**: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises is shown [43] - **Supply - Output**: - **Coking Plant**: The daily average output data of 230 independent coking plants and full - sample independent coking enterprises from 2019 to 2026 are provided [45] - **Steel Mill**: The daily average output data of 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2026 are presented [47] - **Inventory**: - **Coking Plant**: The inventory data of full - sample and 230 - sample independent coking plants from 2019 to 2026 are shown [48] - **Steel Mill**: The inventory, average available days, and regional inventory data of 247 steel - mill sample coking plants from 2019 to 2026 are presented [49][51][54][56] - **Full - Sample Aggregate**: The total inventory data of coke from 2019 to 2026 are provided [58] - **Demand - Pig Iron**: The supply - demand difference and daily average output data of pig iron from 2019 to 2026 are presented [60] - **Profit**: The disk profit of ton - coke (main - continuous contract) and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises are shown [63] 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: The futures market data of coking coal 2605 and 2609 from February 27, 2026, to March 6, 2026, including closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented [66] - **Coke Futures**: The futures market data of coke 2605 and 2609 from February 27, 2026, to March 6, 2026, including closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented [69] - **Coal and Coke Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread data of coking coal and coke from 2019 to 2026 are shown [73][75] - **Coal and Coke Spot**: The spot prices of different types of coking coal and metallurgical coke are presented [79] - **Coal and Coke Basis**: The basis data of coking coal 2605, 2609 and coke 2605, 2609 are shown [81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current gold price is affected by multiple factors, with the core logic centered around geopolitical situations and macro - policies. Tensions in the Middle East and the potential for inflation support the gold price, while strong US economic data, cautious signals from the Fed, and profit - taking pressure the price. However, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East still provide strong support for the gold price [11]. - Silver generally follows the fluctuations of gold. The significant decline in COMEX registered silver inventory, continuous outflow of inventory from major global markets, and high physical investment demand limit the downside risk of silver prices. The reduction of initial margins for gold and silver futures by CME may attract capital inflows. The report suggests a bullish strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 1130 - 1200 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: This month, Shanghai gold rose 4.65% to 1140.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 15.64% to 21740.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 2.10% to 5093.30 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 6.44% to 82.52 US dollars/ounce; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.13%, and the US dollar index rose 2.23% to 99.04 [11]. - **Influencing Factors**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support gold as a traditional safe - haven and inflation - hedging asset. However, strong US economic data and cautious Fed signals weaken the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts, pushing up the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, and some funds take profits at high prices, which together put pressure on the gold price. For silver, the significant decline in COMEX registered silver inventory and high physical investment demand limit its downside risk [11]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a bullish strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 1130 - 1200 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3.2 Gold Monthly Review - **Price and Volume Data**: As of March 6, Shanghai gold rose 4.65% this month, with a high of 1197.22 yuan/gram and a low of 1090.12 yuan/gram; COMEX gold rose 2.10%, with a high of 5335.90 US dollars/ounce and a low of 4941.40 US dollars/ounce [20][22]. - **Inventory**: As of this Friday, the COMEX gold inventory was 1036.40 tons [33]. - **Funding**: As of the latest report period this month, the net long position of COMEX gold managed funds was 96,000 lots, with long positions of 121,200 lots and short positions of 25,300 lots; the total holdings of major foreign gold ETF funds were 1729.37 tons [40][43]. 3.3 Silver Monthly Review - **Price and Volume Data**: As of March 6, Shanghai silver rose 15.64% this month, with a high of 23029.00 yuan/kilogram and a low of 18799.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX silver rose 6.44%, with a high of 94.39 US dollars/ounce and a low of 75.01 US dollars/ounce [45][49]. - **Inventory**: As of this Friday, the COMEX silver inventory was 11207.60 tons [57]. - **Funding**: As of the latest report period this month, the net position of COMEX silver managed funds was 8523 lots, with long positions of 13365 lots and short positions of 4842 lots; the total holdings of major foreign silver ETF funds were 26175.88 tons [61][64]. 3.4 US Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Federal Reserve Balance Sheet**: The total assets of the Federal Reserve increased by 15097 million US dollars this week. On the asset side, the holding of securities increased by 14656 million US dollars; on the liability side, the total liabilities increased by 15052 million US dollars [67]. - **Federal Reserve Interest Rates**: The report presents the trends of the Federal Reserve's main interest rates, the 10Y - 1Y term premium, etc. [72]. 3.5 US Macroeconomic Data - **GDP**: The report shows the year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter growth rates of the US GDP [76]. - **CPI**: It presents the trends of the US CPI, core CPI, and the year - on - year contribution of CPI sub - items [79]. - **PPI**: It shows the trends of the US PPI, core PPI, and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes of PPI sub - items [82]. - **PMI**: It presents the trends of the US ISM - PMI manufacturing index and its sub - items [84]. - **Housing**: It shows the situation of new private housing construction, new housing sales, and the year - on - year change of the S&P/CS housing price index in the US [87]. - **Employment**: It shows the new non - farm employment and unemployment rate in the US, as well as the new non - farm employment sub - items [89]. - **Personal Income**: It presents the average hourly wage of US non - farm enterprise employees and the year - on - year change of personal disposable income [93]. 3.6 Global Liquidity Tracking - **Interest Rates of Major Economies**: It shows the interest rates of major economies and their weekly changes [98][101]. - **Exchange Rates of Major Economies**: It shows the weekly changes of the exchange rates of major economies against the RMB and the US dollar [104]. - **Global Stock Indexes**: It shows the weekly changes of global stock indexes, including those of developed and developing countries, as well as the weekly changes of US and European stock market sectors [107][110].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the futures market in supporting the real economy, managing risks, and enhancing the quality of development in line with the government's economic directives [3][4]. Group 1: Government's Economic Directives - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, highlighted the need to deepen investment and financing reforms and improve the foundational systems of the capital market [3]. - The government work report stresses the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, which provides guidance for the futures market to fulfill its risk management role [3][4]. Group 2: Role of the Futures Market - The futures market is expected to play a crucial role in serving technological innovation, attracting long-term capital, and supporting high-quality development of the real economy [3]. - Industry leaders believe that the futures market should continue to innovate service models and utilize derivative tools to address procurement challenges and price volatility risks [3][4]. Group 3: Contributions to Agriculture and Risk Management - The futures industry has been exploring a unique financial support model for agriculture through the "insurance + futures" approach, contributing to the construction of a robust risk protection network for agricultural development [4]. - The market's cumulative trading volume reached 9.074 billion contracts in 2025, with a total transaction value of 76.625 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.4% and 23.74% respectively, indicating steady market expansion [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the core role of the futures market will become more prominent, providing comprehensive risk management services across the entire industrial chain and enhancing China's pricing influence in bulk commodities [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Entering March, the estimated output of refined copper in China is expected to rebound. With the resumption of work and production in downstream industries and the reduced substitution advantage of scrap copper, the supply surplus is expected to narrow. Overseas demand is expected to improve, and the pressure of inventory accumulation will ease. - At the macro - level, the ongoing Middle East conflict has increased inflation expectations overseas, raising the possibility of policy tightening and the pressure of a global economic slowdown. However, under the basic assumption, the Fed will not raise interest rates, and geopolitical issues are expected to enhance the value of strategic resources. In China, the policy is relatively stable during the "Two Sessions", and the construction of a new energy system and the development of new - quality productivity continue to strongly support copper demand. - Overall, the Middle East conflict may continue to cause "pulse - type" shocks, while the support comes from the value attribute of strategic resources, tightness at the mine end, and the seasonal recovery of downstream consumption. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 97,000 - 108,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME 3M copper is expected to be between 12,400 - 13,800 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or increase long positions after a pullback [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Points Summary - **Supply**: The supply of copper ore remains tight. The output of the largest copper - producing country, Chile, is low, while the supply of blister copper is still relatively loose, and the processing fees are high. In February 2026, the domestic refined copper output declined, generally in line with expectations, and it is expected to rebound in March with a year - on - year increase [9]. - **Demand**: In February 2026, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China is estimated to have increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries resumed work and production normally, but the estimated consumption was slightly weaker than the same period last year. The overseas manufacturing industry is relatively strong, and the demand expectation has improved [9]. - **Import and Export**: In February 2026, the loss of spot imports of SHFE copper widened in a fluctuating manner. The price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper oscillated weakly, and the price difference remained negative. COMEX inventory was transferred to LME warehouses in North America [9]. - **Inventory**: In February 2026, the inventories of the three major exchanges increased. The inventories of SHFE and LME increased significantly, while the inventory in the bonded area decreased slightly. The total inventory increased significantly, but there are still structural problems. It is estimated that the inventory accumulation in China will slow down significantly in March [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In February 2026, copper prices fluctuated and consolidated. Against the backdrop of the US - Iran negotiations and tariff uncertainties, market sentiment was volatile. Coupled with the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the overall macro situation was mixed, and copper prices fluctuated at high levels. During the month, the main SHFE copper contract rose by 0.23%, and the LME 3M copper contract rose by 1.73%. The US dollar index stabilized, and the offshore RMB appreciated. At the beginning of March, copper prices fluctuated downward due to geopolitical and inventory changes [18]. - **Market Spreads**: In February 2026, the loss of spot imports of SHFE copper widened in a fluctuating manner, but the overall loss was not large. In February, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper oscillated weakly in the range. At the beginning of March, the price difference weakened, but the expectation of future tariffs has not been eliminated [21]. - **Inventory and Basis**: As of the end of February, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 1.284 million tons, an increase of 251,000 tons compared with the end of January and an increase of about 625,000 tons compared with the end of February 2025. The inventory structural problem still exists (COMEX inventory accounts for a high proportion, about 43%, with a year - on - year increase of 461,000 tons). In February, the LME copper inventory increased, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to increase. In terms of basis, in February 2026, the Cash/3M discount in the LME market narrowed in a fluctuating manner; the domestic basis weakened, and at the end of February, the spot price was at a discount of about 260 yuan/ton to the futures price, and the discount narrowed at the beginning of March [24][27]. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of late February 2026, the CFTC fund position remained net long, and the net long ratio rebounded to 20.8%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds rebounded, and the sentiment stabilized and recovered. In March, the impact on market sentiment is expected to mainly come from the geopolitical situation, US policy expectations, mine - end news, and inventory changes [30]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - **Copper Ore**: In 2025, the output of global sample mines was about 16.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 270,000 tons (-1.6%). According to the production guidance of listed mining companies in 2026, the copper ore output of sample mines in 2026 is expected to be about 16.86 million tons, a month - on - month increase of about 210,000 tons, with the growth rate revised down. In January 2026, the copper output of Chile, the largest copper - producing country, decreased by 3% year - on - year to 41,400 tons. Problems such as the continuous impact of accidents and the decline in ore grade have kept the country's copper output at a low level. In February, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports rebounded slightly, and the spot supply at ports was still tight. In terms of processing fees, in February 2026, the spot TC of copper concentrates oscillated downward and then rebounded slightly but remained at a low level [35][38]. - **Refined Copper**: In February 2026, the domestic blister copper processing fees continued to rise, and the supply of cold materials remained relatively loose. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting in the mainstream domestic regions, increased, making a positive contribution to smelting revenue. Affected by the reduction in days, the Spring Festival holiday, and the statistical cycle of some enterprises, the output of SMM China's refined copper decreased month - on - month in February 2026, which was basically in line with expectations. In March 2026, with relatively sufficient cold material supply and fewer smelter overhauls, the output of refined copper is expected to increase and maintain a year - on - year increase [41][45]. - **Recycled Copper**: In February 2026, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 3,138 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month. Under the influence of the uncertainty of local tax rebate policies and the Spring Festival, the substitution advantage of scrap copper weakened. In February, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises continued to be weak. The tax rebate policy still had a great impact on the production of recycled copper rods. At the same time, the narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference increased the advantage of producing blister copper/anode plates, and the direct substitution volume of scrap copper was still small [48]. 3.3.2 Demand - **China**: Assuming stable net imports, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper in February is estimated to be 1.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease and a slight year - on - year increase. From January to February 2026, the cumulative apparent consumption was about 2.403 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. In February 2026, the domestic official manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI remained above the boom - bust line, showing a divergence in manufacturing prosperity. In 2025, the cumulative output of copper products in China increased by about 4.7%, with the growth rate declining month - on - month. In February 2026, the average operating rate of copper product enterprises decreased, and it is expected to rebound significantly in March, slightly lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises decreased due to the Spring Festival holiday, with the average operating rate slightly lower than the same period in 2025, and the post - holiday resumption of work was relatively stable. The operating situation of domestic wire and cable enterprises in February was slightly better than expected, and the operating rate is expected to rebound in March. In December 2025, the year - on - year decline of power investment (power supply + grid) continued to expand; the new installed capacity of photovoltaic continued to decline year - on - year but increased month - on - month, with an expected marginal improvement. The new installed capacity of wind power increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the relevant demand was better than expected. In March, the production schedule of photovoltaic modules is expected to pick up. In February 2026, the domestic real - estate transaction data was slightly weaker than the same period last year. In February, the production schedule data of home appliances in the real - estate backend was affected by the Spring Festival date difference and high base, with a large year - on - year decline, and the decline is expected to narrow in March; the high - frequency data of automobile sales in February was weak year - on - year [51][54][57][60][63]. - **Overseas**: In February 2026, the manufacturing industries of major overseas economies were in good condition. The manufacturing PMIs of the US and the UK declined slightly, while the manufacturing PMIs of the eurozone, Japan, and India increased. The US ISM manufacturing index was 52.4, maintaining a relatively strong performance above the boom - bust line. According to ICSG data, in December 2025, the global refined copper consumption decreased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the annual consumption in 2025 increased by about 3.2% [66]. 3.4 Macro Analysis - **Fed Policy**: In January 2026, the US unemployment rate declined, and inflation data weakened, with core inflation in line with expectations. As the geopolitical conflict intensified in March, the rise in oil prices increased the upward pressure on inflation expectations. The probability of a short - term interest - rate cut remained low, but the probability of a shift in the Fed's monetary policy was also small. In February 2026, the US dollar index stabilized. After Trump nominated Warsh as the next Fed chairman, the decline of the US dollar eased. In March, affected by the geopolitical conflict, safe - haven funds pushed up the US dollar index; the 10 - year US inflation expectation gradually stabilized, still deviating from the copper price trend [71][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rebounded. The short - term upward targets for manganese silicon are 6200 yuan/ton and 6450 yuan/ton, and for ferrosilicon are 5900 yuan/ton and 6100 yuan/ton. The short - term market sentiment is driven by the significant escalation of the US - Iran conflict, which has led to a shift in commodity sentiment towards the long side. It is not advisable to take short - side operations in the short term. Instead, it is recommended to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and highly elastic varieties such as manganese silicon and ferrosilicon. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors on the manganese silicon side and supply - contraction factors on the ferrosilicon side [16][19][21]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - In February, the weighted index of manganese silicon futures rebounded from the bottom, with a monthly increase of 162 yuan/ton or +2.76%. Last week, the price remained volatile at a high level after the rebound, with a weekly increase of 106 yuan/ton or +1.76%. The price increase was mainly driven by market speculation due to rumors of rising power costs in South Africa and the imposition of an ecological export tariff on manganese ore. The US - Iran conflict also supported the price. Technically, the price is in a bullish pattern [16]. - In February, the weighted index of ferrosilicon futures also rebounded from the bottom, with a monthly increase of 94 yuan/ton or +1.66%. Last week, the price continued to rebound, with a weekly increase of 146 yuan/ton or +2.54%. The price increase was due to the relatively good fundamentals of ferrosilicon and the spill - over of the bullish sentiment from manganese silicon and the overall commodity market [19]. - **Monthly Summary** - **Spot and Futures Prices**: As of March 5, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The futures price of the main contract (SM605) was 6092 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was - 2 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton month - on - month. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 6150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton month - on - month. The futures price of the main contract (SF605) was 5828 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 322 yuan/ton, up 198 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 5.24% [20]. - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 467 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was - 595 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Guangxi, it was - 580 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton month - on - month. The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 274 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was - 160 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Qinghai, it was - 747 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [20]. - **Cost**: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6317 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was 6355 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Guangxi, it was 6480 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton month - on - month. The estimated production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5704 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was 5560 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; in Qinghai, it was 6147 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [20]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.59 tons, down 0.16 tons week - on - week. In February 2026, the output of manganese silicon was 77.36 tons, down 8.04 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 162.76 tons, down 6.32 tons or - 3.74% year - on - year. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.65 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, remaining at a low level in the same period. In February 2026, the output of ferrosilicon was 39.39 tons, down 4.33 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 83.1 tons, down 8.82 tons or - 9.60% year - on - year [20]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar was 173.31 tons, up 8.21 tons week - on - week. The daily average hot metal output was 227.59 tons, down 5.69 tons week - on - week. In February 2026, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 8.07 tons, down 0.52 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 16.66 tons, up 8.07 tons or +20.64% year - on - year. In 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon was 40.09 tons, down 2.79 tons or - 6.50% year - on - year [20][21]. - **Inventory**: The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 63.65 tons, down 0.16 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period. The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 10.58 tons, up 1.76 tons month - on - month, remaining at a low level in the same period [20]. - **Outlook and Strategy** - In the short term, the significant escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to a shift in commodity sentiment towards the long side. It is recommended to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and highly elastic varieties, such as manganese silicon and ferrosilicon. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors on the manganese silicon side and supply - contraction factors on the ferrosilicon side. It is also recommended to pay attention to possible restrictive measures on manganese ore exports in South Africa and Gabon and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [21]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Manganese Silicon Basis**: As of March 5, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The futures price of the main contract (SM605) was 6092 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was - 2 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton month - on - month, at a neutral level in historical statistics [26]. - **Ferrosilicon Basis**: As of March 5, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 6150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton month - on - month. The futures price of the main contract (SF605) was 5828 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 322 yuan/ton, up 198 yuan/ton month - on - month, at a high level in historical statistics [29]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Manganese Silicon Production Profit**: As of March 5, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation and other expenses) remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 467 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was - 595 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Guangxi, it was - 580 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton month - on - month [34]. - **Manganese Silicon Production Cost** - **Raw Material Prices**: As of March 5, 2026, the price of South African manganese ore was 38.7 yuan/ton - degree, up 1.7 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month; the price of Australian manganese ore was 43 yuan/ton - degree, up 1 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month; the price of Gabonese manganese ore was 43.8 yuan/ton - degree, up 1 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month. The price of off - grade metallurgical coke was 1185 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [37]. - **Import Volume**: In December, the import volume of manganese ore was 327.4 tons, up 58 tons month - on - month and 72.3 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 3284.2 tons, up 356 tons or +12.17% year - on - year [40]. - **Port Inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the port inventory of manganese ore continued to decline, reaching 495.4 tons, up 65.3 tons month - on - month. The port inventory of Australian manganese ore was 83.0 tons, up 4.8 tons month - on - month. The port inventory of high - grade manganese ore was 155.6 tons, up 19.9 tons month - on - month [43][46]. - **Power Price and Cost**: As of March 5, 2026, the electricity price in Guangxi increased by 0.06 yuan/kWh month - on - month, while the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia remained unchanged. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6317 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was 6355 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Guangxi, it was 6480 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton month - on - month [49]. - **Ferrosilicon Production Profit**: As of March 5, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 274 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was - 160 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Qinghai, it was - 747 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [52]. - **Ferrosilicon Production Cost** - **Raw Material Prices**: As of March 5, 2026, the price of silica in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The price of small - sized semi - coke was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [55]. - **Power Price and Cost**: As of March 5, 2026, the electricity price in the main production areas remained unchanged. The estimated production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5704 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was 5560 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; in Qinghai, it was 6147 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [58]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply** - **Manganese Silicon Total Output**: As of March 5, 2026, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.59 tons, down 0.16 tons week - on - week. In February 2026, the output of manganese silicon was 77.36 tons, down 8.04 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 162.76 tons, down 6.32 tons or - 3.74% year - on - year [63]. - **Manganese Silicon Output in Main Production Areas**: The output and operating rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not further elaborated in the text [65][67][70]. - **Ferrosilicon Total Output**: As of March 5, 2026, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.65 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, remaining at a low level in the same period. In February 2026, the output of ferrosilicon was 39.39 tons, down 4.33 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 83.1 tons, down 8.82 tons or - 9.60% year - on - year [74]. - **Ferrosilicon Output in Main Production Areas**: The output and output proportion in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Gansu, and other areas are presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not further elaborated in the text [75]. - **Demand** - **HeSteel Tendering**: In January 2026, the tender volume of manganese silicon by HeSteel Group was 17,000 tons, up 2300 tons month - on - month, and the tender price was 5920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. In February 2026, the tender volume of 75B ferrosilicon alloy by HeSteel Group was 2150 tons, down 1163 tons month - on - month and up 690 tons year - on - year, and the tender price was 5760 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [79]. - **Manganese Silicon Apparent Consumption and Rebar Output**: As of March 5, 2026, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 11.12 tons, up 0.1 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 173.31 tons, up 8.21 tons week - on - week [82]. - **Hot Metal Output and Crude Steel Output**: As of March 5, 2026, the daily average hot metal output was 227.59 tons, down 5.69 tons week - on - week. In December 2025, the crude steel output in China was 68.18 million tons, down 1.72 million tons month - on - month and 7.82 million tons year - on - year. The cumulative crude steel output from January to December was 950 million tons, down 41.22 million tons or - 4.16% year - on - year [84]. - **Magnesium Metal**: In February 2026, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 8.07 tons, down 0.52 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 16.66 tons, up 8.07 tons or +20.64% year - on - year. As of March 5, 2026, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month [90]. - **Ferrosilicon Export**: In 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon was 40.09 tons, down 2.79 tons or - 6.50% year - on - year. As of March 5, 2026, the estimated export profit of ferrosilicon was - 86 yuan/ton, remaining at a low level in the same period [93]. 3.5 Inventory - **Manganese Silicon Visible Inventory**: As of March 5, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 63.65 tons, down 0.16 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 38.73 tons, down 1.1 tons month - on - month. In February,

美伊冲突，市场波动加剧 股指月报 2025/03/06 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利率与信用环境 02 期现市场 05 资金面 03 经济与企业盈利 06 估值 01 02 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 重要消息：1、政府工作报告：经济增长目标微调到4.5%至5%的区间，政策基调与基础规模基调延续；2、伊朗严禁美、以、欧 船只在霍尔木兹海峡通行，能源价格飙升，美国财政部正评估对原油期货市场采取行动；3、贝森特称15%的全球关税税率可能 本周开始实施；4、全球AI应用月活榜前五分别为ChatGPT、豆包、千问、夸克、DeepSeek，千问增速高达552%；5、3月6日， 央行开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月。 ◆ 经济与企业盈利：1、2月官方制造业PMI为49.0，前值49.3,或源于假期偏长、偏晚对供给端的约束； 2、2026 年1月份M1增速 4.9%，前值3.8%；M2增速9.0%，前值8.5%；股市和春节因 ...