Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the shipping industry, focusing on the impact of new environmental regulations such as the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the FuelEU Maritime regulation on fuel costs and operational expenses for ships [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Regulatory Impact**: The EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime regulations significantly increase operational costs for shipping companies by imposing taxes on greenhouse gas emissions, including CO2, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) [1][2]. - **Cost Projections**: From 2028 to 2040, total operational costs for the shipping industry are expected to rise from $640 million to $1.59 billion, with GFI penalties being the largest contributor to this increase [2][17]. - **Green Fuel Transition**: The shipping industry is encouraged to transition to green alternative fuels, such as biomass methanol, to comply with regulations and reduce costs. Biomass methanol can meet GFI requirements and potentially lower operational costs compared to traditional fossil fuels [1][10][12]. - **Economic Viability of Green Fuels**: For biomass methanol to be competitive, its price needs to be reduced to $600-$800 per ton, considering the current market price of low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) is around $400 per ton [18][19]. - **Compliance Strategies**: Shipping companies are advised to invest in energy efficiency technologies and optimize routes to reduce emissions and the need to purchase EUAs (Emissions Trading Allowances) [4][5]. Additional Important Content - **GFI Compliance**: The GFI (Greenhouse Gas Fuel Index) will assess compliance based on the fuel type and quantity used by ships, with penalties for exceeding set limits. The basic target for GFI in 2028 is set at 89.57, with compliance penalties for values above this threshold [9][10]. - **Long-term Fuel Strategy**: The shipping industry is expected to increasingly adopt alternative fuels, with LNG having a temporary compliance advantage until 2032, after which it will face higher penalties [11][14]. - **Future Regulations**: The IMO's net-zero framework is anticipated to be implemented in 2028, which will further push the industry towards sustainable practices and may increase operational costs due to stricter compliance requirements [8][20][21]. - **Market Dynamics**: The demand for green fuels will depend on regulatory compliance and economic factors, with a potential increase in the use of alternative fuels as their prices decrease and supply increases [24]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding the shipping industry's transition to greener fuels and the implications of new environmental regulations on operational costs and compliance strategies.

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend. The suspension of cargo movement at the Kazakh border, potential opening of the Polish border, cancellation of voyages during the Golden Week, and fluctuations in booking volumes and tariffs are all influencing the market. The key variable remains tariffs, and the situation may deteriorate further if the tariff suspension period ends [8]. - The EC market is in a weak and volatile state. The unchanged MSK10 October second - week freight rate opening price has increased the expectation of a halt in price decline [9]. - In the European shipping market, the cargo volume is expected to bottom out in October and turn around in November. The shipping companies' "rolling pool" strategy during the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. The off - season reduction in ships has limited impact on the market [10]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) dropped to 1198, a decrease of 14.31% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1120, a 0.45% decline. SCFI - West America dropped 30.97% to 1636, SCFIS - West America fell 11.56% to 1193, SCFI - East America decreased 22.68% to 2557, and SCFI - Northwest Europe dropped 8.84% to 1052. SCFIS - Northwest Europe declined 17.15% to 1193, and SCFI - Mediterranean fell 5.75% to 1638 [6]. - **Contract Data**: Most shipping futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, EC2506 decreased 2.28% to 1421.3, EC2608 dropped 1.03% to 1592.5. Some contract positions changed, with EC2608's position increasing by 14 to 501, while EC2410's position decreased by 4522 to 41508 [6][7]. 3.2 Market News - Cargo movement at the Kazakh border has been temporarily suspended due to a disagreement between the Kazakh and Russian governments on the customs union agreement. The Polish border may open this Tuesday or Wednesday or by the end of this month. MSC has canceled 5 more voyages during the Golden Week off - season, with the capacity of the Pacific route reduced by about 14% and the Asia - Europe route by about 17%. In early September, China - US booking volumes decreased by nearly 26% year - on - year, and US - China booking volumes dropped by 18% [8]. 3.3 EC Market - The EC market is in a weak and volatile state. The unchanged MSK10 October second - week freight rate opening price has increased the expectation of a halt in price decline [9]. 3.4 Spot Price - This week, the Gemini October upper - half price dropped to 1500, QA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500 [10]. 3.5 Strategy - A positive spread strategy for the 10 - 12 period is recommended [11].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance, with the main contract of the shipping index (European line) opening at 1101.6 points and reaching a high of 1159.8 points, reflecting a 4.94% increase [1] - The shipping index (European line) is currently exhibiting a strong upward trend, with institutions providing various outlooks on its future performance [1] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for September is reported at 49.5, falling below expectations and indicating ongoing pressure in the manufacturing sector, particularly in Germany and France [1] Group 2 - The "Istanbul Bridge" vessel has commenced its journey from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port to the UK’s largest container port, marking the launch of the world's first fast shipping route between China and Europe, which is expected to enhance international logistics for high-end manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce [1] - Shipping companies are continuing to lower prices to attract cargo, with Mediterranean Shipping reducing rates to $890/TEU and $1490/FEU, while Hapag-Lloyd has adjusted some voyages to $935/TEU and $1435/FEU [1] - Current market sentiment remains weak, with ongoing pressure on spot prices and limited cargo volume ahead of the holiday season, leading to potential further price reductions if shipping companies do not implement effective capacity reduction measures [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate is continuously falling, the bullish sentiment has subsided, and the market has declined again. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not advisable to hold positions stubbornly [4]. - In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic, with large fluctuations. The core of the movement is the trend of the spot freight rate. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index Changes - On September 22, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 13.24% to 783.71 points, the SCFIS (European route) dropped 12.9% to 1254.92 points, the NCFI (European route) dropped 7.65% to 673.61 points, the SCFIS (US West route) dropped 11.6% to 1193.64 points, and the NCFI (US West route) dropped 23.30% to 944.89 points [3]. - On September 19, compared with the previous period, the SCFl announced price dropped 199.90 points to 1198.21 points, the CCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 2.1% to 1125.30 points, the SCFI European route price dropped 8.8% to 1052 USD/TEU, the CCFI (European route) dropped 6.2% to 1537.28 points, the SCFI US West route dropped 31.0% to 1636 USD/FEU, and the CCFI (US West route) dropped 2.2% to 757.45 points [3]. Economic Data - In August, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI initial value was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI initial value rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, reaching the highest level since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - In August, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI initial value was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, the highest level since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [4]. Market and Contract Information - On September 23, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, down 0.18%, with a trading volume of 28,500 lots and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 4522 lots from the previous day [4]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On September 23, local time, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office reported that a ship heard an explosion about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen. The ship and its crew were safe and continued normal navigation [4]. - Australia, Canada, and the UK announced the recognition of the State of Palestine. Since the new round of the Israel - Palestine conflict in October 2023, Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip have caused more than 60,000 Palestinian deaths, and the international community's call for the implementation of the "two - state solution" has increased [4].

FICC日报 | 2025-09-24 船司10月下半月尝试挺价，关注MSC以及马士基下半月报价 情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹40周报价875/1470，41周报价840/1400；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价格 935/1435，10月上半月价格935/1435，10月下半月价格1235/2035；11月上半月价格1535/2535. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月下半月船期报价890/1490，10月上半月价格890/1490；ONE 10月上半月船期报 价915/1435；HMM上海-鹿特丹10月上半月船期报价968/1506; YML 9月22日至10月15日报价850/1300。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1010/1620，10月上半月船期报价1010/1620;CMA上海-安特 卫普10月下半月尝试挺价，价格为1460/2520。EMC 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1710；OOCL 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1450美元 ...

Core Insights - A significant shift in global logistics is occurring, highlighted by the closure of Polish border crossings with Belarus, which has led to over 300 trains carrying €12 billion worth of goods being stranded for more than 10 days [2][4] - The opening of the Arctic shipping route by China, which is expected to reduce transit time to the UK to 18 days, is a strategic response to the changing logistics landscape [2][6] Group 1: Impact of Poland's Decision - Poland's indefinite closure of border crossings has drastically reduced cargo volume at the Małaszewicze hub by 82%, leading to the closure of numerous logistics companies [8] - The decision has resulted in Poland losing its pivotal role in Central European trade, as the China-Europe Railway Express is now rerouting through Kazakhstan, with a recent 40% increase in cargo volume [8] Group 2: Development of New Trade Routes - The Arctic route, which has been in planning since 2018, is now operational, offering a significant advantage in shipping times compared to traditional routes [6] - The development of the Arctic shipping route is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese companies in the European market, with delivery times for certain products reduced from 35 days to 18 days [8] Group 3: Broader Implications - The situation underscores the risks of politicizing supply chains, as highlighted by Belarusian President Lukashenko, who noted that Poland's border policy serves others' interests [8] - The emergence of new logistics routes and the rise of the Arctic shipping industry indicate a shift in global trade dynamics, emphasizing the need for cooperation over isolation [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Relatively Strong", and for treasury bond futures is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints - The market fluctuated throughout the day with the three major indexes showing mixed results. Over 4,200 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 2.51 trillion yuan. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but its stance was cautious, and there was internal divergence on the path of interest rate cuts this year. The domestic economic data in August showed a slight decline in demand - side indicators, indicating that the economy is still on the way to bottom - out and stabilize. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to boost inflation through more inclusive fiscal policies. As the important meeting in October approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is advisable to reduce long positions appropriately [1] - Treasury bond futures closed lower across the board. The central bank conducted 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan. The short - term central bank's signal to support the capital market is obvious. With the current fundamental factors being mixed, the bond market shows no obvious turning point signal and will continue the oscillating trend [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 23, 2025, IH was at 2,925.0 (up 2.0, 0.07% from the previous day), IF was at 4,483.8 (down 0.2, 0.00%), IC was at 6,940.6 (down 72.6, - 1.04%), and IM was at 7,127.0 (down 103.2, - 1.43%) [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,919.5 (down 2.7, - 0.09%), the CSI 300 was at 4,519.8 (down 2.8, - 0.06%), the CSI 500 was at 7,180.7 (down 44.4, - 0.61%), and the CSI 1000 was at 7,408.1 (down 81.4, - 1.09%) [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 23, 2025, TS was at 102.35 (down 0.052, - 0.05%), TF was at 105.63 (down 0.145, - 0.14%), T was at 107.72 (down 0.26, - 0.24%), and TL was at 114.32 (down 0.81, - 0.70%) [3] 2. Market News - **Diplomatic Response**: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the tariff war and trade war are not in the interests of any party, and both sides should resolve issues through negotiation on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [5] - **Stock Market Performance**: The market fluctuated throughout the day. The shipping sector was strong, with Nanjing Port and Ningbo Shipping hitting the daily limit. Bank stocks rebounded, with Nanjing Bank and Xiamen Bank rising more than 3%. The tourism sector adjusted, with Yunnan Tourism and Tibet Tourism hitting the daily limit down. Semiconductor chip stocks strengthened in the afternoon, with many stocks such as Demingli and Leon Micro hitting the daily limit [5][6] 3. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes [8][10][12] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [15][18][20] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [24][25][28] 4. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [32] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, focusing on macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking [32]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the bullish sentiment has faded. The market is weakening, and it is not recommended to add more positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. - The market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. - Tariff issues have a marginal effect. In the short - term, wait for the market to bottom; in the long - term, take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback [4]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Rate Indexes - From September 19th to 22nd, multiple freight rate indexes declined. For example, the NCFI (composite index) dropped 13.24%, the SCFIS (European route) fell 12.9%, and the NCFI (US West route) decreased 23.30% [3]. Economic Data - In August, the manufacturing PMI in China was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and composite PMI all showed improvement. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [3]. - The US August manufacturing and services PMI data were better than expected [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop loss on long positions and wait for the bottoming opportunity. Do not hold positions stubbornly and set stop - loss [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to temporarily observe or participate with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. Market Conditions - On September 23rd, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a decline of 0.18%, a trading volume of 28,500 lots, and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 4,522 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On September 23rd, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, but the ship and its crew were safe [4]. - Australia, Canada, and the UK announced the recognition of the State of Palestine, and the international community's call for the implementation of the "two - state solution" has increased [4].

Core Viewpoint - Recently, the tanker freight rates have experienced a significant increase, positively impacting the earnings of global tanker owners, including China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (中远海能) [1] Company Summary - China Merchants Energy's stock opened over 3% higher, with a current price of HKD 9.34 and a trading volume of HKD 4.0722 million [1] - During the 2025 semi-annual earnings presentation on September 22, the company reported that most of its VLCC fleet is currently in spot operations [1] Industry Summary - The VLCC TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) reached USD 96,000 per day on September 16, 2025, maintaining a high level in the following days [1] - This freight rate level marks the best September performance for VLCC rates since 1990, with the previous peak in September 2004 also at USD 96,000 per day [1]