对房地产专家的一项民意调查显示，由于对借贷成本下降的稳定预期，英国房价的前景在过去三个月几乎没有变化。 工党首相基尔·斯塔默 （Keir Starmer） 誓言要在议会任期内建造 150 万套住房，最迟将于 2029 年年中结束。 由于房屋供不应求，预计购买房屋的成本会增加。 在全国范围内，预计今年房价将上涨 3.5%，与 2 月份的预测相符。在伦敦，房价预计今年上涨 3.0%，明年上涨 4.0%，2027 年上涨 3.8%。 城市租金的上涨速度甚至超过了房价，这使得新买家更难存钱支付通常需要的抵押贷款。许多人，尤其是年轻人，更喜欢住在城市里。 在全国范围内，预计今年城市租金将上涨 4.3%，伦敦租金将上涨 3.7%。 Convera 首席外汇和宏观策略师乔治·维西 (George Vessey) 表示："由于法院裁定特朗普的关税非法，英镑兑美元回吐了大部分涨幅。"英镑仍高于 21 天移 动平均线，这表明近期的上升趋势仍然完好。 由于投资者对不确定的美国贸易政策做出反应，英镑兑美元在 2025 年上涨了近 8%，并有望连续第四个月上涨。 受美国和欧盟贸易/重启协议、消费者支出高于预期以及仓位减少的推动，英镑近 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of various acronyms in financial markets that reflect the volatility and uncertainty since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, with strategies linked to his economic and trade policies [1][2][3] - Acronyms like MAGA (Make America Great Again) and YOLO (You Only Live Once) were popular during the initial phase of Trump's presidency, driving significant market movements, but have since lost favor due to concerns over economic policies and market stability [2][3] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy has gained traction among traders, betting on Trump's tendency to backtrack on aggressive policies, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [3][4] Group 2 - MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) has resurfaced as European markets outperform U.S. markets, driven by increased interest in European equities and military spending in response to U.S. policies [5][6] - The MAGA variant, "Make America Go Away," reflects a growing sentiment among foreign investors to avoid U.S. markets due to concerns over inflation and the erosion of confidence in U.S. assets [6][7] - FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) describes the chaotic market conditions resulting from Trump's policy decisions, highlighting the risks of frequent trading in response to market volatility [7]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum among various countries, particularly in Asia, driven by factors such as trade agreements and increased investment in alternative assets like gold and digital currencies [1][3]. Group 1: Indicators of De-dollarization - A recent study by Forex Complex identified three main indicators of de-dollarization: the decreasing share of the dollar in national reserves, the increasing share of gold, and the growing use of alternative currencies in bilateral trade [3]. - Countries like Singapore, Indonesia, and Japan are leading the efforts in de-dollarization, indicating a systematic shift away from reliance on the dollar [3]. Group 2: Regional Developments - ASEAN has established an agreement prioritizing local currency transactions to mitigate risks associated with U.S. monetary policy changes and trade restrictions [3]. - Indonesia has reported that approximately 15% of its trade with China and Japan is conducted using alternative currencies, including the use of the Indonesian rupiah for transactions with Japan [3]. Group 3: Impact of the Pandemic - The trend towards reducing dependence on the dollar has become particularly pronounced following the COVID-19 pandemic, as many Asian countries seek to lessen their reliance on a dollar-denominated financial system [5]. - The rise of the Chinese yuan is notable, with China establishing closer ties with ASEAN and Middle Eastern countries through yuan-denominated trade [5]. Group 4: Current Currency Shares - As of March, the yuan accounted for approximately 4.1% of global payment shares, significantly lower than the dollar's 49%, but its growth potential is considerable given China's economic size and growth prospects [5].

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "Day of Liberation" tariff policy exceeded its authority, leading to a suspension of its implementation, emphasizing that presidential trade management powers cannot surpass those granted to Congress by the Constitution [1] - This lawsuit, initiated by five small import businesses, marks the first significant legal challenge against the tariff policy, with seven similar lawsuits ongoing [1] - The ruling has alleviated market concerns regarding the trade war, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.8% [1] - The dollar index surpassed the 100 mark, reflecting a positive market sentiment following Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and an agreement with China to reduce tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate officials are grappling with the dual challenges of rising inflation and unemployment, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Despite gold prices rising by 26% this year, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve has suppressed gold prices [1] - Consumer confidence data exceeded expectations, reinforcing a robust economic outlook, while investors are focused on upcoming GDP, PCE data, and fiscal policy developments [1] Dollar Index - On Wednesday, the dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 99.933 and a low of 99.414, closing at 99.865 [2] - The market exhibited a bullish sentiment after a brief period of fluctuation, with a significant rise in the U.S. trading session [2] - Key resistance levels to watch include 100.20, with a focus on whether the index can maintain this level [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance at 101.70, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline on Wednesday, with a high of 3325 and a low of 3276.48, closing at 3288.35 [4] - The market showed a bearish trend after testing key resistance levels, leading to a significant downward movement [4] - Current support levels are identified at 3270, with a focus on potential further declines if this level is breached [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend on Wednesday, with a low of 1.1283 and a high of 1.1344, closing at 1.1289 [6] - The market remains under pressure due to resistance levels, indicating a bearish outlook [6] - Long-term support is noted at 1.0800, while short-term focus is on the 1.1130 area [6] Key Financial Data and Events - Upcoming key financial events include the Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech, Canadian current account data, U.S. initial jobless claims, and revisions to U.S. GDP [11]

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have subtly shifted, with a high probability of maintaining rates in June and a growing concern for potential rate cuts in July [1][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Maintaining Interest Rates - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is as high as 97.8%, reflecting market assessments of the current economic situation and inflation levels [3]. - Although there are signs of economic recovery in the U.S., growth momentum remains insufficient, particularly in consumption and investment sectors [3]. - Current inflation, while rising, is still within the Fed's 2% target range, and the Fed views this increase as "temporary," influenced by supply chain bottlenecks and rising energy prices [3]. Group 2: Possibility and Considerations for Rate Cuts - Despite the high probability of maintaining rates in June, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point cut in July stands at 22%, indicating concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [4][5]. - Economic growth uncertainty, particularly in consumer confidence and corporate investment, suggests that rate cuts could stimulate borrowing and spending [5]. - Global economic slowdown and ongoing trade tensions are impacting the U.S. economy, and rate cuts could enhance competitiveness and mitigate external pressures [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - Recent declines in U.S. Treasury yields reflect an increased market expectation for rate cuts, while the dollar's exchange rate has also been influenced by anticipated Fed easing policies [6]. - Investors are adjusting their portfolios in response to changing expectations regarding Fed rate decisions, potentially increasing allocations to bonds and equities for higher returns [7]. - The Fed's future rate decisions will depend on economic data performance and global economic dynamics, necessitating investors to closely monitor these factors for timely strategy adjustments [7].

周三（5月28日）亚洲交易时段早盘，美元兑加元延续震荡上行态势，汇价在1.38整数关口上方交投，市场聚焦美联储政策路径与加拿大经济数据对汇率的 双重影响。 技术面显示，美元兑加元正面临关键技术位考验。日线图显示，汇价当前运行于布林带中轨1.3865附近，上方重要阻力位依次为1.3870心理关口及布林带上 轨1.4007。下行支撑方面，1.3730水平位构成首道防线，跌破后将测试布林带下轨1.3722支撑。MACD指标显示，DIFF线（-0.0044）与DEA线（-0.0038）的 负向差值收窄，柱状图收缩至-0.0010，暗示空头动能逐步衰竭，需警惕金叉信号形成可能。RSI指标报43.4988，虽仍处中性区间但较前期低点反弹，显示短 期存在技术性修正需求，但尚未触及超卖阈值，下行空间尚未完全封闭。 近期美国经济数据呈现分化格局，但整体仍为美元提供支撑。美国谘商会5月消费者信心指数跃升至98.0，显著高于4月修正后的86.0，显示家庭部门对经济 前景的乐观情绪升温。尽管4月耐用品订单环比下降6.3%，但该数据仍优于市场预期的7.9%降幅，且前值从9.2%下修至7.6%后，数据落差并未显著超出预 期。明尼阿波利斯 ...

周二，美国股债汇齐涨，再度上演"TACO交易"。 在因阵亡将士纪念日休市一天后，美股在本周首个交易日集体收涨，道指涨1.78%，纳指涨2.47%，标 普500指数涨2.05%，大型科技股普涨。 美债反弹，收益率普跌，长端美债收益率至少跌超8个基点。30年期德债收益率跌超6个基点。 从威胁到妥协：50%关税的48小时反转 这轮市场过山车始于上周五特朗普突然宣布的炸弹消息。在贸易谈判毫无进展的挫败感驱使下，特朗普 宣布将从6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%关税。 市场反应堪称灾难性：道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌256点，跌幅0.6%；标普500指数重挫2.6%；纳斯达克 综合指数下跌1%。这一"天外飞来"的公告让投资者在长周末假期中忐忑不安。 伦敦Saxo Markets的英国投资策略师Neil Wilson在周五特朗普宣布对欧盟征收50%关税的惊人决定后 写道： "希望和预期仍然是，我们将看到'TACO交易'上演。"事实证明，Wilson的预测准确无误。 剧情在周日晚间出现戏剧性反转。 特朗普在社交媒体上发布消息称，应欧盟主席Ursula von der Leyen 的请求，同意将50%关税的实施推迟至7月9日。 "这是 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The interbank foreign exchange market shows a mixed performance in the RMB exchange rates against various currencies, indicating fluctuations in the currency's value. Exchange Rate Changes - USD/RMB is reported at 7.1894, an increase (RMB depreciation) of 18 points [1] - EUR/RMB is reported at 8.1558, a decrease of 291 points [1] - HKD/RMB is reported at 0.9172, a decrease of 0.3 points [1] - GBP/RMB is reported at 9.7248, a decrease of 224 points [1] - AUD/RMB is reported at 4.6402, a decrease of 186 points [1] - CAD/RMB is reported at 5.2107, a decrease of 210 points [1] - 100 JPY/RMB is reported at 4.9915, a decrease of 434 points [1] - RMB/RUB is reported at 11.1540, an increase of 294 points [1] - NZD/RMB is reported at 4.2816, a decrease of 269 points [1] - RMB/MYR is reported at 0.58881, an increase of 21.1 points [1] - CHF/RMB is reported at 8.7007, a decrease of 570 points [1] - SGD/RMB is reported at 5.5844, a decrease of 130 points [1]

Group 1 - The New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) has strengthened against the US Dollar, breaking the psychological barrier of 30 NTD per USD, with less than 1% remaining to reach a nearly 30-year high [1][3] - The appreciation of the NTD is attributed to multiple factors including a weakening US Dollar index, trade policy negotiations, and a shift in Taiwan's monetary policy [1][3] - Year-to-date, the NTD has appreciated by 9.8%, leading among emerging market currencies in Asia, with current trading around 29.84 NTD per USD [3] Group 2 - Taiwan's central bank has indicated a policy shift, stating it will not adhere to a specific exchange rate level, allowing for a strategic appreciation of the NTD [4] - Analysts suggest that if the US Dollar index falls below the technical support level of 104, the NTD could challenge the 29.5 NTD per USD range, although caution is advised regarding potential counter-cyclical adjustments by Taiwan's monetary authorities [4] - Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and Taiwan's semiconductor export data, as these factors may influence future exchange rate movements [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global central banks are in a continuous wave of interest rate cuts, with various countries like Egypt, Australia, and Canada already taking action, driven by a complex interplay of factors including slowing economic growth and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The global economic growth forecast has been revised down from 3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025, influenced by rising trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts affecting energy supply chains [1]. - The recent decline in inflation has created space for policy shifts, allowing central banks to lower interest rates [1]. Group 2: Trading Opportunities - The interest rate cut cycle presents three major trading opportunities: - Revaluation of interest-sensitive assets, particularly benefiting the real estate and manufacturing sectors, with a noted lag of 3-6 months for mortgage rates to impact home sales [3]. - Structural market trends in equities, where technology stocks typically outperform in early rate cut phases, while energy stocks may underperform due to weakened demand expectations [3]. - Arbitrage opportunities in commodities, with gold's hedging function becoming more pronounced during periods of declining real interest rates [3]. Group 3: Risks in the Current Environment - Four core risks accompany the interest rate cut environment: - The lag in policy transmission may lead to a delayed response from the real economy to rate cuts [4]. - Debt risks may escalate as emerging markets increase leverage, potentially leading to credit rating downgrades and widening credit spreads [4]. - An escalation in currency wars could arise if the dollar index breaches critical levels, prompting currency interventions and market volatility [4]. - The risk of inflation resurgence if demand rebounds too quickly due to rapid rate cuts [4]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - DLSM Forex platform offers a comprehensive risk management framework, including: - Application of macro hedging tools like interest rate options and currency corridor strategies to lock in profits and mitigate risks [4]. - Credit screening of micro-level entities, focusing on cash flow coverage ratios to avoid high-leverage operations [4]. - Dynamic rebalancing of asset portfolios based on macroeconomic data adjustments to respond to market changes [4][5]. Group 5: Impact of AI Revolution - The AI revolution is reshaping trading logic, with significant capital expenditure increases in leading AI companies like Nvidia and TSMC, showing a notable negative correlation with U.S. Treasury yields [5]. - However, there are concerns regarding technological iteration risks and regulatory uncertainties that need to be monitored [5].