Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent CPI data has led to a decline in the US dollar index, increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2][3] - The July CPI data showed a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with core inflation rising 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [2] - Energy prices decreased by 1.1%, while food prices remained stable, suggesting that the impact of tariffs is being absorbed by corporate profit margins rather than passed on to consumers [2] Group 2 - The market is betting that inflation will not accelerate sharply this fall, despite high tariffs, and that CPI inflation could even fall below the 2% target next year if the economy, particularly the job market, continues to weaken [2] - The dollar index fell to a near two-week low following the CPI data release, which met market expectations, providing the Federal Reserve with policy space to respond to weak employment data [2] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice more this year, fueled by ongoing criticism from President Trump towards Fed Chairman Powell [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are showing signs of a potential rebound, with a focus on the 5-day moving average as a key resistance level [3] - The gold price is expected to test resistance around $3440, with support levels identified at $3337 or $3325 [3] - The market is closely monitoring the price action to confirm the validity of the bullish reversal pattern, with a need for gold to close above the 5-day moving average to strengthen bullish momentum [3]

Group 1 - The core CPI for July rose to 3.1%, reaching a five-month high and exceeding market expectations of 3.0% [1] - The month-over-month core CPI increased to 0.3%, matching market expectations but higher than the previous value of 0.20% [1] - Overall CPI recorded an annual rate of 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, and the month-over-month rate was 0.2%, in line with expectations but lower than the previous 0.30% [3] Group 2 - Following the data release, gold prices surged to a high of $3354 per ounce before experiencing significant volatility, reflecting investor sentiment [3] - The dollar index dropped sharply by over 30 points, while non-dollar currencies experienced a rally, with the GBP/USD breaking above 1.35 and the EUR/USD rising nearly 50 points [3] - Short-term interest rate futures in the U.S. declined as traders increased bets on a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and December [4] Group 3 - Analysts noted that this was the first month in six where the core CPI reading did not fall below the expected median, raising concerns about a potential turning point in inflation trends [4] - The rise in core CPI may indicate increased pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding inflation control, complicating future monetary policy decisions [5] - Persistent inflation volatility poses a risk to the U.S. economy, potentially eroding consumer purchasing power and increasing production costs, which could hinder economic growth [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are in a risk - on state this week, but the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences. China's exports in July showed good performance, but there are risks of decline and restricted re - export trade in the future. For major assets, a defensive layout should be maintained, focusing on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. - For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities, maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas market is in a risk - on state this week under the background of weak US economic fundamentals and intensified tariff threats. The inflection point of the pre - released concentrated overseas demand is approaching, and the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this good performance may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - **Asset Views**: For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit repair window in the second half of the month; maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from a weak US dollar, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds to be vigilant against interest rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After the event is settled, the capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. Considering Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, they are expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. Considering factors such as the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production slightly decreases, and port inventory slightly accumulates. Considering policy - level dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coke**: Five rounds of price increases have been implemented, and coke - enterprise production has recovered. Considering steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased due to coal - mine disturbances, and the market is strengthening after sentiment improvement. Considering steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market is sentiment - driven, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. Considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market is sentiment - driven, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering cost prices and overseas quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Glass**: Inventory has started to accumulate, and rigid demand is relatively stable. Considering spot sales, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse - receipt pressure is emerging, and production is still recovering. Considering soda - ash inventory, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The risk of overseas recession is rising, and copper prices are under pressure. Considering supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are increasing again, and alumina prices are under pressure. Considering factors such as less - than - expected ore resumption and more - than - expected electrolytic - aluminum resumption, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and aluminum prices are rising. Considering macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black - metal sector have rebounded again, and zinc prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc - ore supply, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead is disturbed, and lead prices are slightly rebounding. Considering supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory is high, and nickel prices are fluctuating widely. Considering unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel - iron is rising continuously, and the stainless - steel market is rising in a volatile manner. Considering Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and tin prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering more - than - expected supply cuts and more - than - expected photovoltaic installations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate is moving in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns are easing, but supply pressure still exists. Considering OPEC + production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **LPG**: Supported by chemical demand, the cracking spread has stabilized. Considering the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Asphalt**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500, and the futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. Considering more - than - expected demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is following crude oil and fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Methanol**: Supported by coal but suppressed by olefins, it is moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Considering export - policy trends and the elimination of production capacity, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal is strong and oil is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering frequent changes in overseas devices affecting port arrivals, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PX**: Subject to planned maintenance, it cannot boost processing fees, and the price is still under cost pressure. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and more - than - expected PTA device maintenance, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PTA**: Subject to cost constraints, it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Considering wide - range cost fluctuations, unexpected device maintenance, and more - than - expected polyester load reduction, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand has improved slightly. Considering the purchasing rhythm and operating conditions of downstream spinning mills, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: Overall demand is sluggish, and the height of processing - fee repair is limited. Considering more - than - expected production increase by bottle - chip enterprises and a sharp increase in overseas export orders, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PP**: Fundamental support is limited, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Plastic**: Inventory is accumulating in the upstream and mid - stream, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PVC**: Supported by cost, the market is moving in a volatile manner. Considering expectations, cost, and supply, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner for the time being. Considering market sentiment, production, and demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is positive, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday. Considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The trading volume of far - month basis contracts has increased, and the market is worried about the supply gap in the fourth quarter. Considering US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. 3.3 Agriculture - **Corn/Starch**: The market continues to move weakly in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Hogs**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Rubber**: Supported by strong raw - material prices, rubber prices are rising in a volatile manner. Considering plantation weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by tight raw - material supply, the market is rising. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Pulp**: The futures market is running stably. Considering macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Cotton**: Supported by low inventory, cotton prices are rising. Considering marginal changes in demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening. Considering imports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Logs**: Logs are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering shipment volume and transportation volume, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

新华社权威快报 国家外汇管理局最新数据显示 2025年上半年 其中，人民币在跨境收支中的比重达到53% 企业、个人等非银行部门 跨境资金净流入1273亿美元 延续去年下半年以来的净流入态势 企业、个人等 非银行部门跨境收支 7.6万亿美元 创历史同期新高 跨境资金净流入 1273亿美元 新华社国内部出品 国家外汇管理局7月22日发布数据显示 2025年上半年 企业、个人等非银行部门 跨境收入和支出合计7.6万亿美元 规模创历史同期新高 我国国际收支保持基本平衡 外汇市场运行平稳有序 记者：刘开雄 海报制作：刘开雄 新华社国内部出品 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王頔】 ...

【纠错】 【责任编辑:焦鹏】 新华社国内部出品 记者：张文 【简介】国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌7月22日在国务院新闻办新闻发布会上说，上半 年，境内人民币外汇市场交易量总计达到21万亿美元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of other non-USD currencies, the Chinese yuan remains relatively stable, indicating resilience in China's foreign exchange market amidst complex international and domestic challenges [1][2]. - Foreign capital has been reducing its holdings of RMB-denominated bonds since February, raising concerns in the market, although this has not significantly altered the overall balance of cross-border capital flows [1][2]. - From January to May, the net inflow of cross-border funds related to goods trade reached $214.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66%, reflecting the growth in China's import and export activities [2]. Group 2 - The current account surplus remains robust, with a surplus of $88.9 billion in the first quarter, up 25% year-on-year, and is expected to maintain a certain scale in the second quarter [3]. - China's industrial and supply chains are stable, supporting a continued surplus in goods trade, which is essential for maintaining a balanced current account [3]. - The financial market's high level of openness is expected to enhance foreign investors' confidence in holding RMB assets long-term, as China continues to improve its legal and international framework for the bond market [4].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Global Asset Market Performance Report 1. Global Bond Market 1.1 10-year Treasury Yields - On August 11, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yields in the US, UK, and France were 4.287%, 4.564%, and 3.355% respectively [3]. - The latest changes in the US, UK, and France were 0.003, -0.036, and 0.007 respectively [3]. - The one - year changes in the US, UK, and France were 0.310, 0.683, and 0.363 respectively [3]. 1.2 2-year Treasury Yields - On August 11, 2025, the 2-year Treasury yields in the US, UK, and Germany were 3.720%, 3.859%, and 1.961% respectively [3]. - The latest changes in the US, UK, and Germany were 0.030, -0.037, and 0.009 respectively [3]. - The one - year changes in the US, UK, and Germany were -0.630, 0.156, and -0.486 respectively [3]. 1.3 Credit Bond Indexes - The latest changes in the US investment - grade credit bond index, Eurozone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were 0.09%, -0.00%, etc. respectively [3][4]. - The one - year changes in the US investment - grade credit bond index, Eurozone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were 4.87%, 4.56%, etc. respectively [4]. 2. Global Stock Market 2.1 Major Economy Stock Indexes - On August 11, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6373.450, 43975.090, and 21385.400 respectively [3]. - The latest changes in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were -0.25%, -0.45%, and -0.30% respectively [3]. - The one - year changes in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 17.02%, 8.99%, and 24.38% respectively [3]. 2.2 Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 3647.55, 4122.51, and 2789.90 respectively [5]. - The price - to - earnings ratios (PE(TTM)) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.30, 11.43, and 30.82 respectively [5]. - The latest values of capital flows in A - shares, the main board, and the small and medium - sized enterprise board were 524.49, 191.94, etc. respectively [5]. 3. Foreign Exchange Market 3.1 USD against Major Emerging Economy Currencies - On August 11, 2025, the exchange rates of USD against the Brazilian Real, South African Rand, and South Korean Won were 5.443, 17.757, and 1390.850 respectively [3]. - The latest changes in the exchange rates of USD against the Brazilian Real, South African Rand, and South Korean Won were 0.15%, 0.06%, and 0.21% respectively [3]. - The one - year changes in the exchange rates of USD against the Brazilian Real, South African Rand, and South Korean Won were -5.28%, -2.83%, and 1.55% respectively [3]. 3.2 RMB Exchange Rates - On August 11, 2025, the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and RMB central parity rate were 7.189, 7.197, and 7.141 respectively [3]. - The latest changes in the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and RMB central parity rate were 0.12%, 0.10%, and 0.03% respectively [3]. - The one - year changes in the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and RMB central parity rate were -0.78%, -0.76%, and 0.11% respectively [3]. 4. Futures Market 4.1 Stock Index Futures - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 3647.55, 4122.51, and 2789.90 respectively [5]. - The price - to - earnings ratios (PE(TTM)) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.30, 11.43, and 30.82 respectively [5]. - The latest values of capital flows in A - shares, the main board, and the small and medium - sized enterprise board were 524.49, 191.94, etc. respectively [5]. 4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.495, 105.735, 108.390, and 105.780 respectively [6]. - The price changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and policy changes. For instance, the potential outcomes of the US-Russia talks and the uncertainty in the US-China trade relationship are key factors affecting various markets [17][44]. - In the financial market, different asset classes have different outlooks. Gold is expected to continue its oscillatory trend with increased volatility; the US dollar is predicted to remain weak in the short - term; and the US stock market may face correction risks due to the fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations [13][18][22]. - In the commodity market, each sector has its own supply - demand dynamics. For example, the油脂 market may experience short - term pullbacks but has long - term potential for long - positions; the copper market is likely to have high - level oscillations with inventory increases limiting the upside [33][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year. The gold price oscillated on Friday with increased intraday volatility. After the White House clarified that imported gold bars would not be taxed, the COMEX gold price declined to narrow the spread with London gold. The gold price is in an oscillatory range, and short - term oscillations are expected to continue with attention to correction risks [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The NATO Secretary - General is optimistic about the "Trump - Putin meeting". Nordic and Baltic leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. The US - Russia meeting in Alaska and the European stance on Ukraine make the outcome of the meeting and the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict highly uncertain, leading to the US dollar remaining weak in the short - term [14][15][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rates. Some support maintaining the current rate due to unmet inflation targets, while others advocate for rate cuts. The market's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile, and the US stock market at its current level may face correction risks [19][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The issuance of local bonds with VAT on interest started on August 8. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be in a favorable period in the first half of August, and trading - position long - holders can continue to hold their positions [23][24][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. Beijing optimized its housing purchase restrictions, and the capital market is expected not to have a large - scale IPO expansion. The strengthening of the core CPI may support the stock market pricing, and it is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [28][29][31]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week was 2177500 tons, and the expected volume in the 33rd week is 2369500 tons. Multiple countries' policies may change. India may raise edible oil import tariffs, and there are rumors about the US RVO proposal. The short - term oil market may pull back, but it has long - term potential for long - positions, and it is recommended to go long on dips [32][33]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA August supply - demand report to raise the US soybean yield. The US soybean market is weak, while the domestic soybean meal market is relatively strong. It is recommended to continue to focus on the development of Sino - US relations and changes in import and demand [34][35]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July, indicating weak export demand. The international sugar market is under pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. However, factors such as the low sugar - ethanol price difference and poor cane quality may limit the downside of the ICE raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also under pressure from increased imports, but the downside of the Zhengzhou sugar price is limited, and it is not recommended to short aggressively [39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US tariff policy and the uncertainty in the US - China trade relationship increase market concerns. The ICE cotton price is expected to remain weak in the short - term. Domestically, the cotton supply is tight before the new cotton harvest, and there may be a small - scale "rush to buy" at the beginning of the new cotton season. The 1 - month contract may rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to the US - China trade policy [44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China has completed the ultra - low emission transformation of 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity. The inventory of five major steel products is increasing, and the demand has not changed significantly. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the limited impact of environmental protection restrictions on supply and the difficulty of the spot price to follow the increase [45][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory has increased again at a high level, and the price difference with corn starch has narrowed. There is no driving force for the price difference to strengthen in the supply - demand situation, and the price difference in the 09 contract may be affected by the new corn harvest in North China [48]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions remains low. The market's demand for imported corn substitutes is expected to decline, and the old - crop spot price is likely to weaken. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop corn and pay attention to the weather [49][50]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two factories of a Shanxi alumina enterprise were affected by ore supply. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US is interested in investing in Pakistan's copper mining. Chile's Codelco partially restarted a copper mine. Macro factors may provide short - term support for the copper price, but the increase in global inventory will limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [54][57]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. The spot trading is light, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term polysilicon price may range between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton, and it may reach over 60000 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the 9 - 12 positive arbitrage [58][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some production capacities in Xinjiang have resumed production. The supply may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon may lead to inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, with risks from large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [61][62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo mining site will stop production. The production loss will lead to inventory reduction in the third - quarter balance sheet. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider the inter - month positive arbitrage [63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The primary lead production is expected to increase, while the secondary lead production is affected by sewage inspections. The demand is in the pre - peak season waiting to be verified. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low prices and pay attention to the positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [65][66]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly, while the domestic zinc supply is high. The demand is stable in the primary processing sector. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions for single - side trading, consider the medium - term positive arbitrage, and wait and see for the domestic - foreign trading [67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The macro - environment provides some support, but the supply is expected to be in surplus. The short - term nickel price is unlikely to decline significantly, and it is recommended to focus on short - term trading opportunities and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium - term [69][70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price oscillated last week. The carbon price may be supported by the buying demand before the compliance deadline, but the weak demand may limit the upside. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [71][72]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count decreased. India's state - owned refineries are招标 to purchase non - Russian crude oil. The oil price has fallen to a new low since early June due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The short - term oil price volatility is expected to increase [73][74][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The Shandong caustic soda market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The caustic soda spot price is starting to weaken, but the downside is limited due to factors such as low liquid chlorine prices and strong coal prices [77][78]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market has limited adjustments. The futures price is oscillating. The anti - involution sentiment has cooled down, and the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [79]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is weakly oscillating. The futures price is down, and the trading is light. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the macro - environment and coal prices provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - A South Korean PX plant is under maintenance, and Japanese PX plants are restarting. The PX price is affected by downstream demand, PTA spot price, and other factors, and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [81]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - A Northeast PTA plant is shutting down. The weaving industry is in the off - season, and the PTA supply and demand have little contradiction. The PTA price mainly follows the crude oil price and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's second - quarter earnings were strong. The SCFI index has declined. The shipping companies are accelerating price cuts, and the supply pressure is increasing. The freight rate may continue to decline, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities when the market is boosted by sentiment [84][87].

Core Viewpoint - Exchange rate fluctuations significantly impact daily life, affecting costs related to travel, shopping, and international trade, thus influencing consumer spending and business profitability [1][2][7]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Overview - The exchange rate is defined as the conversion ratio between two currencies, with the USD to CNY rate on August 8 being 1:7.1345, indicating that 1 USD can be exchanged for 7.1345 CNY [4]. - On August 8, the exchange rates for major currencies were as follows: EUR to CNY at 1:8.3291, GBP at 1:9.5460, and JPY at approximately 1:4.8589 CNY [5]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Businesses - For consumers, an increase in the USD exchange rate means higher prices for imported goods, such as electronics, which can affect purchasing decisions [2][7]. - For businesses, fluctuations in the exchange rate can lead to significant differences in costs; for instance, a rise in the USD exchange rate from 7.1345 to 7.20 would increase the cost of exchanging 1000 USD by 65.5 CNY, which could translate to substantial amounts for larger transactions [5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Exchange Rates - Exchange rate movements are influenced by various factors, including international economic conditions, central bank policies, and market supply and demand dynamics [5]. - It is crucial for individuals and businesses engaged in foreign exchange, travel, or international trade to monitor exchange rate trends and make informed decisions regarding currency conversion [5][9]. Group 4: Strategies for Managing Exchange Rate Fluctuations - To mitigate the impact of exchange rate volatility, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of phased currency exchange rather than attempting to predict the lowest exchange rate [5]. - Rational decision-making and timely information are essential for effectively navigating the "price game" created by exchange rate fluctuations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange situation in China has shown resilience amidst complex external challenges, with positive trends in foreign investment and a stable currency exchange rate [1][2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - From January to May, net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in equity reached $31.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1][3]. - Net inflows of foreign securities investment were approximately $33 billion, reversing the net outflow trend observed in the second half of the previous year [1][3]. - In the first half of the year, foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, marking a turnaround from the net reduction seen over the past two years [4]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, with the exchange rate fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35 [2]. - Market expectations for the RMB remain stable, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation anticipated [2][6]. Group 3: International Balance of Payments - The current account surplus has shown steady growth, maintaining a reasonable balance, while the non-reserve financial account has recorded a deficit roughly equivalent to the current account surplus [3][6]. - In the first half of the year, net inflows of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors reached $127.3 billion, continuing the net inflow trend from the second half of the previous year [3]. Group 4: Foreign Asset Allocation - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has increased, with holdings exceeding $600 billion, reflecting a historically high level [4]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is currently between 3% and 4%, indicating potential for stable and sustainable growth in foreign asset allocation [4]. Group 5: Policy Environment and Market Resilience - The financial market's high-quality development has created a favorable policy environment for foreign investment in China [5]. - The Chinese economy's robust fundamentals and ongoing high-level opening-up policies are expected to support the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [6][7]. - The RMB's market-oriented formation mechanism has improved, enhancing its ability to respond to external pressures and maintain supply-demand balance [7].