Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced a significant pullback this week, with short-term bonds supported by central bank liquidity and demand, maintaining stable yields[1] - Long-term bonds faced pressure due to policy concerns and profit-taking, but later recovered as fundamental expectations solidified and institutional buying resumed[1] - The recent actions of major banks to withdraw large-denomination certificates of deposit have raised expectations for interest rate declines, providing policy support for a potential bond market recovery[1] Group 2: Market Performance Overview - From November 22 to November 29, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.65%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.54%, and the S&P 500 gained 3.73%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield increased by 2.47 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.72%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.49%[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest weekly crude oil inventory stood at 44,355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest week saw a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 177 contracts, while short positions increased by 1,611 contracts[3] - The gold ETF size rose to 3,361 million ounces, an increase of 160,000 ounces from the previous week[3]

Group 1 - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD has drawn significant market attention, with the exchange rate rising to around 7.07, a nearly 5% appreciation from the April low of 7.43, marking the highest level since October 14 of last year [1] - The primary driver for the RMB's appreciation is the market's increasing expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising to approximately 80% following dovish signals from the Fed [1][2] - The RMB's strength is also supported by positive signals in global trade, particularly a thaw in US-China trade relations, which has reduced external uncertainties facing the Chinese economy [1][2] Group 2 - The RMB's appreciation is further bolstered by the robust and resilient fundamentals of the Chinese economy, with exports maintaining high growth despite US tariffs, and a GDP growth target of 5% appearing more certain [2] - Recent policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition in China have begun to show results, stabilizing key indicators like core inflation and producer prices, which has boosted market confidence and supported the RMB's long-term appreciation trajectory [2] - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing steadily, with an increase in overseas investments by Chinese enterprises, which helps mitigate exchange rate risks and supports the RMB's broader use in cross-border trade and investment [2][3] Group 3 - The questioning of USD credit due to high debt levels and protectionist tendencies has led global investors to seek asset diversification, presenting significant opportunities for RMB internationalization [3] - The global trading volume of the RMB has surged to $817 billion daily, accounting for 8.5% of global forex trading volume, indicating a growing acceptance of the currency [3] - As of the end of October, the scale of offshore RMB loans by financial institutions reached approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 37.5% year-on-year increase, showcasing the acceleration of RMB credit "going abroad" [3][4]

Core Insights - The total turnover of China's foreign exchange market reached 21.97 trillion RMB (approximately 3.10 trillion USD) in October 2025 [1] - The customer market turnover was 3.57 trillion RMB (approximately 0.50 trillion USD), while the interbank market turnover was 18.40 trillion RMB (approximately 2.59 trillion USD) [1] - The cumulative turnover for the foreign exchange market from January to October 2025 was 252.07 trillion RMB (approximately 35.21 trillion USD) [1] Market Breakdown - Spot market cumulative turnover was 8.26 trillion RMB (approximately 1.16 trillion USD) [1] - Derivatives market cumulative turnover was 13.71 trillion RMB (approximately 1.93 trillion USD) [1]

Core Insights - The German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) is set to release the retail sales report, with market expectations indicating a month-on-month (MoM) growth of 0.2% for October, consistent with previous figures [2] - The retail sales data is a crucial indicator of consumer demand and economic activity, and its performance could influence the euro's strength against the US dollar [3] Retail Sales and Currency Impact - If actual retail sales exceed expectations, it may provide short-term support for the euro, potentially allowing the euro/USD exchange rate to recover from daily losses [3] - Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, the downward pressure on the euro/USD may be limited due to the European Central Bank's stance on maintaining stable interest rates amid uncertainty [3] - The market will also focus on the release of Germany's unemployment rate and initial consumer price index (CPI) data on the same day, which will contribute to a comprehensive assessment of economic health [3] Dollar Dynamics and External Factors - The euro/USD exchange rate is influenced not only by eurozone data but also by fluctuations in the US dollar [4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have significantly increased, with over 87% probability for a 25 basis point cut, compared to 39% a week prior [4] - This expectation may suppress the strength of the US dollar, providing upward momentum for the euro/USD exchange rate [4] Technical Analysis - The euro/USD has recently shown a volatile trend, currently slightly down to around 1.1590, ending a three-day upward streak [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at the 50-day moving average of 1.1606 and the November 13 high of 1.1655, while initial support is noted at the 9-day moving average of 1.1571 and the three-month low of 1.1468 [5] - Technical patterns suggest that the exchange rate may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]

Core Points - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) for two consecutive trading days, with the onshore exchange rate surpassing the 7.08 mark, reaching a high of 7.0788, the highest since mid-October 2024 [1] - The offshore Yuan also saw a peak of 7.07595 against the USD, marking a new high since mid-October 2024 [3] - The central parity rate of the Yuan against the USD was adjusted up by 30 basis points to 7.0796, the highest since October 14, 2024 [5] Summary by Category Exchange Rate Movements - On November 26, the onshore CNY/USD exchange rate opened at 7.0850 and reached a maximum of 7.0869, reflecting a year-to-date appreciation of nearly 3% [2] - The offshore CNY/USD exchange rate reached a new high of 7.07595, indicating strong investor sentiment [3] Economic Factors - The strengthening of the Yuan is attributed to two main factors: the continuous adjustment of the CNY/USD central parity towards a stronger direction and the robust performance of the domestic economy since the beginning of the year [5] - Increased export performance and a strong domestic capital market since July have led to higher demand for currency settlement, boosting market confidence in the Yuan [5]

| | | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/11/26 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 3.997 | 4.493 | 3.406 | 2.671 | 3.399 | 3.161 | 0.131 | 3.273 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.799 | 6.146 | 1.818 | - | 4.428 | 4.145 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.460 | 3.755 | 2.013 | 0.964 | 2.184 | 1.404 | - ...

Economic Fundamentals - Economic growth reflected by GDP growth rate influences currency demand and exchange rates, with stable growth attracting international capital and pushing exchange rates up, while slow growth or recession exerts depreciation pressure [1] - Inflation rates affect purchasing power; higher inflation compared to other countries leads to decreased confidence in the currency, resulting in downward pressure on exchange rates [1] - Interest rates are closely linked to exchange rates; higher interest rates attract capital inflow, increasing currency demand and supporting exchange rate appreciation, while lower rates can lead to capital outflow and suppress exchange rate performance [1] Monetary Policy - Central banks use monetary policy as a tool to regulate exchange rates, with the direction and intensity of policy having a direct impact [1] - The revised Foreign Exchange Management Regulations in 2025 enhance the macro-prudential management system, allowing the central bank to stabilize exchange rates through foreign exchange reserves and market operations [1] - Tight monetary policy can enhance currency attractiveness and promote appreciation, while loose policy increases money supply and lowers interest rates, leading to depreciation expectations [1] International Balance of Payments - The balance of payments, particularly the current account, reflects a country's external economic balance; a persistent surplus indicates higher demand for the currency, leading to a strong exchange rate, while a deficit exerts depreciation pressure [2] - Capital and financial accounts show cross-border capital flows; sustained net inflows increase demand for the currency, supporting exchange rate strength, while outflows create pressure [2] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical stability is crucial for attracting international capital; political turmoil or increased policy uncertainty can lead to capital outflow and currency depreciation [2] - Sudden events like geopolitical conflicts or natural disasters can trigger market risk aversion, causing investors to shift to traditional safe-haven currencies, leading to short-term appreciation of those currencies and depreciation of affected currencies [2] Market Sentiment and Speculation - Market sentiment and speculative behavior significantly influence short-term exchange rate fluctuations; expectations of currency appreciation can lead to buying pressure, while depreciation expectations can trigger sell-offs [2] - Large-scale speculative trading can amplify short-term volatility, especially in high liquidity conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a mixed trend ahead of key U.S. economic data releases, with the dollar stabilizing and gold supported by a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Data - Investors are focused on the upcoming U.S. economic indicators, including September retail sales, producer price index (PPI), November consumer confidence index, and weekly private sector employment data [1][6]. - The delay in key employment data has sparked discussions about potentially postponing the Federal Reserve's December meeting [4][7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Dovish Tone - Several Federal Reserve officials have reinforced a dovish outlook, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising to approximately 80% according to CME FedWatch [3][4]. - The dovish signals from the Fed have contributed to a pause in the dollar's recent strength and have supported gold's upward momentum [3][5]. Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have remained elevated, trading just below $4,150, supported by the Fed's dovish stance and geopolitical uncertainties, including recent conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East [5][6]. - The combination of safe-haven demand and policy expectations continues to bolster gold's position in the market [5][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Volatility - The uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Federal Reserve's meeting due to delayed data increases short-term policy sensitivity and market volatility [4][6][7]. - Geopolitical tensions remain a significant variable affecting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently reported at 1.3106, with a slight decline of 0.01% from the previous close, influenced by the stabilization of the USD index and anticipation of upcoming U.S. economic data [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP report indicates weak employment figures, suggesting potential upward momentum for the GBP if subsequent data remains weak [1] - The U.K. retail sales data for October exceeded expectations, reducing market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut, which supports the GBP [1] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 82.9%, putting downward pressure on the USD and benefiting the GBP [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The GBP is in a narrow consolidation phase, with short-term support at 1.3099 and potential upward movement towards 1.3115 and 1.3130 if key levels are maintained [2] - Current market liquidity is tightening, and a breakthrough at key resistance levels could trigger a trend [2] - Technical indicators are neutral to bullish, with RSI at 51 nearing strong territory, and MACD showing no signs of weakening [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent media claims suggest that China has "stopped selling US Treasury bonds," implying a significant victory in the financial arena, but this assertion is misleading as China continues to reduce its holdings of US debt [1][15]. Summary by Sections China's Holdings of US Treasury Bonds - As of February 18, 2025, China's holdings of US Treasury bonds have decreased to $759 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [2]. - From a peak of approximately $1.3 trillion in 2011, China has reduced its holdings by about $550 billion, a decline of over 40% [2]. - In 2024 alone, China sold off $57.3 billion in US Treasury bonds, with nine months of the year showing a reduction in holdings [4]. Reasons for Reducing Holdings - The reduction in US Treasury bonds is driven by several practical considerations: - Risk diversification is a key factor, as China seeks to allocate its foreign reserves of over $3 trillion across various assets, including European bonds and gold [5]. - Concerns over the weaponization of the dollar, particularly in light of US sanctions on Russia, have prompted a reevaluation of reliance on the dollar [5]. - The need to stabilize the yuan's exchange rate during periods of depreciation pressure has also influenced the decision to sell US bonds [5]. US Federal Reserve's Response - The characterization of the Federal Reserve's actions as "forced concessions" is exaggerated; the Fed is adjusting its monetary policy based on economic data [5][10]. - The Fed has been lowering interest rates, with the federal funds rate dropping from a high of 4.25-4.50% at the beginning of 2024 to a range of 4.00-4.25% [5]. - Internal disagreements within the Fed regarding the pace of rate cuts reflect a normal decision-making process rather than external pressures [7]. Market Dynamics - As of the end of 2024, the total US national debt exceeded $36 trillion, with foreign investors holding approximately 25.4% of this debt [8]. - Japan remains the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds, followed by the UK, which has surpassed China [8]. - The stability of the US Treasury market is primarily supported by domestic demand, indicating that foreign selling has a limited impact on overall market stability [8]. Implications for the Future - The US government's increasing financing needs, with net interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, highlight the importance of attracting buyers for new debt issuances [9]. - While foreign investor reductions may exert some pressure on the US, the adjustments in the market are part of a normal regulatory process rather than a crisis [10]. - For China, reducing US Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves enhances the safety and yield of its foreign reserves, contributing to the stability of the yuan [11]. - The global financial landscape is gradually diversifying, with a shift away from the dollar's dominance, although this change will be gradual [14].