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五矿期货能源化工日报-20250716
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 02:40
能源化工日报 2025-07-16 原油 能源化工组 行情方面:WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.08 美元,跌幅 0.12%,报 66.75 美元;布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 0.28 美元,跌幅 0.40%,报 68.86 美元;INE 主力原油期货收跌 9.30 元,跌幅 1.76%, 报 518.2 元。 数据方面:富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉, 汽油库存累库 0.18 百万桶至 8.29 百万桶,环 比累库 2.23%;柴油库存累库 0.30 百万桶至 2.41 百万桶,环比累库 14.07%;燃料油库存累库 0.72 百万桶至 10.50 百万桶,环比累库 7.35%;总成品油累库 1.20 百万桶至 21.19 百万桶, 环比累库 5.99%。 我们认为当前地缘风险仍有不确定性,虽然 OPEC 略超预期增产,但我们认为当前基本面仍处 于紧平衡,整体原油处于强现实与弱预期的多空博弈当中,建议投资者把握风控,观望处理。 甲醇 2025/07/16 甲醇 7 月 15 日 09 合跌 10 元/吨,报 2386 元/吨,现货涨 5 元/吨,基差-1。上游检修增多,开工高 位回落,企业利润依旧较好,海外装置开 ...
《能源化工》日报-20250715
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:20
Group 1: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend, with compressed weighted profits. Methanol and monomers are weak, and marginal profits are recovering. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is weakening. Dynamically, the supply pressure in July is not significant, and the overall pressure still exists, but inventory reduction has improved in July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong drivers, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, LP can be taken profit at around 250 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, PP2601 prices increased slightly, while L2509, PP2509 prices decreased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of some varieties also changed. For example, the spread of L2509 - 2601 decreased by 130.77%, and the spread of PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 100% [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP inventories are accumulating. The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.10%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.1%. The downstream weighted operating rates of both also decreased slightly [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints Crude oil futures prices are under pressure, mainly due to the game between geopolitical sanctions expectations and macro - demand concerns. The market focus has shifted from geopolitical supply disturbances to the actual impact of trade policies on demand. In the short term, oil prices are still dominated by macro uncertainties. It is recommended to adopt short - term band strategies, and capture opportunities for increased volatility on the options side [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC futures prices decreased. The spreads between different contracts and different varieties also changed. For example, Brent - WTI increased by 0.90%, and SC - Brent increased by 24.50% [6]. - **Product Oil Prices and Spreads**: Most product oil prices decreased, and the cracking spreads of some product oils also changed. For example, the US gasoline cracking spread decreased by 0.25%, and the Singapore diesel cracking spread increased by 4.43% [6]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **PX**: PX rebound is under pressure, but there is support at low levels. PX09 is expected to operate in the range of 6600 - 6900 in the short term, and opportunities to expand the PX - SC spread at low levels can be focused on [10]. - **PTA**: PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price rebound is under pressure. TA is expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short term, and short - selling strategies can be considered above 4800 [10]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is gradually turning to be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. EG09 can be observed unilaterally, focusing on the pressure around 4400 [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand of short - fiber is weak, and the processing fee repair space is limited. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Strategies mainly focus on expanding the processing fee at low levels on the PF disk [10]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand of bottle - chip has improvement expectations, but the absolute price still fluctuates with the cost side. PR strategies are similar to PTA, and opportunities to expand the processing fee at the lower edge of the range can be focused on [10]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased. The prices and spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, and other products also changed. For example, the PX spot price (in RMB) increased by 1.6%, and the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 23.9% [10]. - **开工率**: The operating rates of Asian PX, PTA, MEG, and some downstream industries changed. For example, the Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the PTA operating rate increased by 2.0% [10]. Group 4: Chlor - alkali Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the high profit stimulates high production. The transaction activity between alumina plants and traders has increased, and the short - term macro - sentiment is strong [14][15]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is weakly sorted. The current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. Although the macro - atmosphere has improved, it is difficult to see a significant price decline in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][15]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda increased by 2.4%, and the price of V2509 increased by 0.6% [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda production rate is high, and the downstream operating rates of some industries have changed slightly. The PVC production rate is relatively stable, and the downstream product operating rates are decreasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating [14][15]. Group 5: Styrene Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: In the short term, pure benzene has rebounded, but its own driving force is limited. The import expectation is high, and the port inventory is at a high level. The price transmission of some downstream products is not smooth, which may limit the rebound space. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and adopt the reverse - spread strategy for the month - spread [38]. - **Styrene**: The styrene industry is operating at a high level, but the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the port inventory is increasing. Although the absolute price is supported by the strong oil price and the commodity market atmosphere, the increase is limited. EB08 should focus on the pressure above 7500, and high - short opportunities can be considered [38]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased. The prices and spreads of pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products also changed. For example, the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3%, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 28.9% [38]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in East China ports increased. The operating rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and styrene also changed slightly [38]. Group 6: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The inland methanol market has limited short - term decline space due to the support of centralized maintenance in July. The port market is facing dual pressures: the复产 of Iranian plants is continuing, and the import in July is expected to reach 1.2 million tons; at the same time, the planned maintenance of coastal MTO will weaken the olefin demand, and the port is expected to turn to slight inventory accumulation in July, and the price suppression is significantly enhanced [41]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol contracts and spot prices changed. For example, MA2601 increased by 0.82%, and the price of Inner Mongolia's north - line spot decreased by 0.75% [41]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol inventories are accumulating. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.11%, and the downstream external - purchase MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.50% [41]. Group 7: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The urea futures price has declined, mainly due to the superposition of the expectation of loose supply and short - term weakening demand. The daily production is maintained at a high level, and the demand for agricultural summer top - dressing is coming to an end, and industrial demand is restricted by high temperatures. Although the export policy is relaxed and the Indian tender price has increased, the short - term export orders have not fully alleviated the domestic inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [48]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea contracts and spot prices changed. For example, the price of Shandong (small particles) decreased by 2.15% [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of urea is abundant, and the demand is weakening. The daily production remains high, and the agricultural and industrial demands are both decreasing. The inventory in ports is increasing, while the inventory in factories is decreasing [48].
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250715
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 01:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance, with the market in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. Investors are advised to control risks and wait and see [2]. - For methanol, the upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The demand side is weak, and the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also limited by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [4]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen significantly, but they should guard against the risk of correction. The overall tire start - up rate is relatively high, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, with a neutral - to - long or neutral short - term view [7][8][10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The disk's main logic is the transition from destocking to stockpiling. Although it has strengthened recently following the black building materials sector, it will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene - ethylene, there are different views from both long and short sides. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate due to global trade policy uncertainties and seasonal off - season factors [17]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July due to the supply - demand weakness in the seasonal off - season [18]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, it is expected to continue destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following crude oil [20][21]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the Saudi plant's unexpected situation is expected to make it run strongly in the short term, but the fundamentals are weak in the long term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: WTI主力原油期货收跌1.92美元,跌幅2.79%,报66.83美元;布伦特主力原油期货收跌1.49美元,跌幅2.11%,报69.14美元;INE主力原油期货收涨13.60元,涨幅2.65%,报527.5元 [5]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. Gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.86 million barrels to 89.83 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. Diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.76 million barrels to 102.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. Total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.63 million barrels to 192.42 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.92% [5]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract rose by 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The overseas device start - up rate has returned to the middle - high level. The demand side is in the off - season, with the port olefin load reduction and the traditional demand start - up rate falling [2]. Urea - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract fell by 9 yuan/ton, reporting 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 46 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic start - up rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The demand side, such as compound fertilizer start - up rate, has bottomed out and rebounded, and the export collection is still continuing [4]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: NR and RU have risen significantly [7]. - **Industry Data**: As of July 10, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The semi - steel tire start - up load of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8]. PVC - **Market Situation**: The PVC09 contract rose by 30 yuan, reporting 5010 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 160 (- 40) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 113 (- 1) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The demand side was weak, and the domestic start - up rate was still lower than in previous years and was gradually entering the off - season. Exports were expected to weaken [12]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Situation**: Spot prices and futures prices have risen, and the basis has weakened [14]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The cost side of pure benzene start - up rate has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply side of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate has continued to rise. The port inventory has increased, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global trade policy uncertainties have returned. The spot price has fallen, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The trader inventory is fluctuating at a high level, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand side is in the seasonal off - season, with the downstream start - up rate seasonally fluctuating downward [18]. PX - **Market Situation**: The PX09 contract rose by 84 yuan, reporting 6778 yuan. The PX CFR rose by 15 dollars, reporting 852 dollars, and the basis was 243 (+ 42) yuan, with the 9 - 1 spread of 94 (+ 20) yuan [20]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: China's PX load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [20]. PTA - **Market Situation**: The PTA09 contract rose by 40 yuan, reporting 4740 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 25 yuan, reporting 4735 yuan, with a basis of 8 (+ 8) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 40 (+ 2) yuan [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Situation**: The EG09 contract rose by 52 yuan, reporting 4357 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 14 yuan, reporting 4398 yuan, with a basis of 67 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 12 (+ 14) yuan [23]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The ethylene glycol load was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The port inventory decreased by 2.7 tons to 55.3 tons [23].
《能源化工》日报-20250714
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 08:31
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Although recently affected by rising oil prices and positive domestic commodity sentiment, its rebound is under pressure due to postponed domestic plant maintenance, recovering overseas supply, potential PTA plant maintenance, and weakening terminal demand. However, considering future PTA plant startups, its supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it has support at low levels. The PX09 is expected to trade in the range of 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: In July, its supply - demand is expected to be weak due to general plant maintenance, expected new plant startups, strong downstream polyester plant production cuts, and weakening terminal demand. Its absolute price rebound is under pressure, and it is expected to trade in the range of 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: With the increase in supply from domestic and overseas plants, its supply is turning loose. Although the polyester and terminal loads are declining, the cost side is strong, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Short - fiber: Both supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Its absolute price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is expected to trade in the range of 6350 - 6600 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle - chip: Its supply - demand is expected to improve, but its absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts of bottle - chip plants and downstream follow - up [2]. Polyolefin Industry PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend, with compressed weighted profits. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. In July, the supply pressure is not large, and the de - stocking situation has improved. There is a lack of strong driving forces for both, and they should be traded within a range. The LP spread can be taken profit at around 250 [7]. Urea Industry The core drivers from the fundamental and macro - news aspects are the market confidence boost brought by the Indian tender price. The short - term market has expectations for export benefits. With support from agricultural and industrial demand and partial alleviation of supply pressure by maintenance plans, the short - term market shows an upward - fluctuating trend. However, the sustainability of demand is to be observed, and long positions should not be over - chased [10]. Crude Oil Industry The main logic for the oil price increase is geopolitical risks and supply interruption expectations. Although the EIA inventory is still accumulating, the refined oil crack spread is strong, and refinery processing demand exists. The oil price is likely to run strongly in the short term, and the WTI is expected to trade in the range of [64, 70] dollars/barrel, Brent in [67, 72] dollars/barrel, and SC in [510, 535] yuan/barrel [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand contradiction is limited. High profits stimulate high production, and the non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. However, the trading activity between alumina plants and traders has increased, and sporadic premium transactions have occurred. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [40]. - PVC: The domestic PVC powder market price has increased, but the supply - demand pattern has entered the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and inventory has slightly increased. Although the fundamentals are weak, it is difficult to see a sharp price decline in the short term due to the positive macro - atmosphere, and it is recommended to wait and see [40]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Recently, it has rebounded significantly at low levels due to strong oil prices and positive domestic commodity market sentiment. In July, its supply - demand is expected to improve, but its own driving force is limited due to high import expectations and high port inventory. The rebound space may be restricted, and it is recommended to wait and see on the long side and conduct spread reverse arbitrage [42]. - Styrene: The industry profit is good, and the industry operating rate is high. However, due to the increasing losses of some downstream industries and high finished - product inventory, its supply - demand is expected to weaken. Although the absolute price is supported by strong oil prices and positive domestic commodity atmosphere, its increase is limited. Short - selling opportunities above 7500 yuan/ton for EB08 can be considered [42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price dropped by 2.5%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, DTY150/48 price remained unchanged, etc. [2] Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (September) rose by 2.5%, WTI crude oil (August) rose by 2.8%, CFR Japan naphtha dropped by 1.2%, etc. [2] PX - related Prices and Spreads - CFR China PX remained unchanged, PX spot price (RMB) dropped by 1.3%, etc. [2] PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East - China spot price dropped by 0.5%, TA futures 2509 dropped by 0.9%, etc. [2] MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations MEG port inventory increased by 6.4%, and the arrival expectation decreased by 36.0% [2]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes The Asian PX operating rate dropped by 0.5%, the Chinese PX operating rate increased by 0.3%, etc. [2] Polyolefin Industry Futures Contract Prices L2601 closed at 7278 yuan/ton, down 0.46%; PP2601 closed at 7054 yuan/ton, down 0.49%, etc. [7] Spot Prices East - China PP拉丝 spot price dropped by 0.42%, North - China LDPE film material spot price remained unchanged, etc. [7] Inventory and Operating Rates PE enterprise inventory increased by 12.48%, PP device operating rate dropped by 1.1%, etc. [7] Urea Industry Futures Contract Prices The methanol main contract dropped by 1.17%, 01 contract rose by 0.06%, etc. [10] Spot Prices Shandong (small - particle) urea spot price remained unchanged, etc. [10] Supply and Demand Data Domestic urea weekly production increased by 1.12%, domestic urea plant - level inventory decreased by 4.99%, etc. [10] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads Brent rose by 0.23%, WTI rose by 0.16%, Brent M1 - M3 rose by 1.45%, etc. [13] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads NYM RBOB rose by 0.04%, NYM ULSD rose by 0.60%, etc. [13] Refined Oil Crack Spreads US gasoline crack spread dropped by 0.33%, European diesel crack spread rose by 5.77%, etc. [13] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent - 100% price remained unchanged, East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained unchanged, etc. [36] Overseas Quotes and Export Profits FOB East - China port caustic soda price dropped by 3.8%, PVC export profit increased by 11.2%, etc. [36][37] Supply and Demand Data Caustic soda industry operating rate dropped by 0.4%, PVC total operating rate dropped by 1.9%, etc. [38] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices Brent crude oil (September) rose by 2.5%, CFR Japan naphtha dropped by 1.2%, etc. [42] Styrene - related Prices and Spreads Styrene East - China spot price dropped by 1.3%, EB futures 2508 dropped by 1.4%, etc. [42] Styrene Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows EPS ordinary material (East - China) rose by 1.8%, PS (East - China) rose by 0.4%, etc. [42] Inventory and Operating Rates Pure benzene East - China port inventory increased by 6.7%, styrene operating rate dropped by 1.4%, etc. [42]
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250714
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 02:41
1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - For crude oil, the short - term supply is in a tight balance due to reduced exports from Russia and post - war Iran, but political expectations are extremely bearish. Given the current neutral - high valuation, it's advisable to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [3]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. With high spot valuation and limited upside space in the off - season, it's recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, with price support at the bottom but limited upside due to high supply. It's more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, it's expected to be easier to rise than fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish strategy, and short - term trading can be neutral - bullish, also pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak. Although it may follow the rebound in the black building materials sector in the short term, it will still face pressure later [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread may repair, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [17][18]. - For polyethylene, the price is likely to remain volatile as the short - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction [20]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season [21]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23]. - For PTA, there is pressure on processing fees due to expected continuous inventory accumulation, but pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25]. 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI crude futures rose $1.88 (2.81%) to $68.75; Brent crude futures rose $1.75 (2.54%) to $70.63; INE crude futures fell 8.60 yuan (1.65%) to 513.9 yuan [2]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.38 million barrels (4.11%) to 9.53 million barrels; diesel inventory decreased by 0.57 million barrels (4.00%) to 13.77 million barrels; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels (6.04%) to 6.47 million barrels; naphtha inventory increased by 0.71 million barrels (13.60%) to 5.94 million barrels; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.17 million barrels (2.84%) to 5.93 million barrels; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.71 million barrels (1.73%) to 41.63 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 11, the 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 2370 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton with a basis of +2 [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Upstream maintenance increased, and the operating rate declined from a high level. Overseas device operation returned to medium - high levels, and the market's reaction to overseas supply disruptions ended. Port olefin demand decreased, and traditional demand was in the off - season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 11, the 09 contract fell 4 yuan/ton to 1773 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged with a basis of +57 [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic production increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizer production picked up, and export containerization continued [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectation of the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [10]. - **Supply - Demand**: Bulls expect production cuts in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears believe that the macro - expectation has worsened, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, up 0.7 tons (0.6%) [11][12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 60 yuan to 4980 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, the basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 112 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overall operating rate was 77%, down 0.5%. The downstream operating rate was 41.1%, down 1.8%. Factory inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5 tons), and social inventory was 62.4 tons (+ 3.2 tons). There is an expectation of new device production in the short term, and export is expected to weaken [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a low level in the same period, with large upward repair space [17]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of pure benzene increased, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. The port inventory increased, and the demand of three S products decreased seasonally [17][18]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation had limited downward space [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: Trade - related inventory was at a high - level shock, and the demand for agricultural film orders was at a low - level shock. There was no new production capacity plan in July [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis strengthened [21]. - **Supply - Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries rebounded, and the supply of propylene was expected to increase. The downstream operating rate declined seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [21]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 88 yuan to 6694 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 15 dollars to 837 dollars [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Chinese operating rate was 81.3%, up 0.3%, and the Asian operating rate was 73.6%, down 0.5%. After the end of the maintenance season, it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter due to new PTA device production [23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 42 yuan to 4700 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4710 yuan [24]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rate was 79.7%, up 1.5%. The downstream operating rate was 88.8%, down 1.4%. In July, there was less maintenance and new device production, and the inventory was expected to accumulate continuously [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 20 yuan to 4305 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4384 yuan [25]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - side operating rate was 68.1%, up 1.5%. The downstream operating rate was 88.8%, down 1.4%. The port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons. The fundamental situation was weak, and the inventory reduction was expected to slow down [25].
广发期货日评-20250711
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 06:24
Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250711
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 01:03
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250710
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 02:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance state. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. - The methanol market is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is difficult for the price to have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The domestic urea supply and demand situation is acceptable, with support at the bottom but limited upside due to high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [7]. - The natural rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. The market is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish mindset is recommended for the medium - term, and a neutral mindset for short - term operations [9][11]. - The PVC market is expected to face strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. The price will still face pressure in the future [13]. - The styrene price is expected to fluctuate downward. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN may recover [16]. - The polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction [19]. - The polypropylene price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season [20]. - The PX market is expected to continue inventory reduction in the third quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23]. - The PTA market will see a slight inventory reduction in July, and the processing fee has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24]. - The ethylene glycol market has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.11, or 0.16%, to $68.29; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.15, or 0.21%, to $70.18; INE main crude oil futures rose 9.00 yuan, or 1.76%, to 519.7 yuan [2]. - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426.02 million barrels, a 1.69% increase; SPR replenished 0.24 million barrels to 403.00 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.66 million barrels to 229.47 million barrels, a 1.15% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 102.80 million barrels, a 0.80% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 21.83 million barrels, a 2.03% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.91 million barrels to 44.24 million barrels, a 2.01% decrease [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 9, the 09 contract fell 1 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 17 yuan/ton, with a basis of +13 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Upstream maintenance increased, and the operating rate declined from a high level. Iranian plants restarted, and the overseas operating rate returned to a medium - high level. The demand side saw a decline in port olefin load, and the traditional demand off - season led to a decline in operating rate. The methanol spot valuation is still high, and the upside space is limited in the off - season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 9, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1770 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +50 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term domestic operating rate declined, and the supply pressure eased. The demand for compound fertilizers continued to decline, but is expected to pick up with the pre - sale of autumn fertilizers. Exports are still ongoing, and port inventories have increased significantly [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest situation, and policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has worsened, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. Tire operating rates are at a neutral level, and inventory pressure exists [9][10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 69 yuan to 4863 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4790 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 173 (- 49) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 95 (+12) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Recently, maintenance increased, but production remained at a high level, and there are expectations of multiple plant startups in the short term. Downstream demand is weak compared to previous years and is entering the off - season. Exports are expected to weaken in July due to potential anti - dumping measures from India. The cost - side support is expected to weaken [13]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost - side pure benzene operating rate increased, and supply was abundant. The styrene operating rate continued to rise, and port inventories increased. In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products declined [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: After the OPEC+ meeting, crude oil oscillated downward. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Traders' inventories continued to increase at a high level, and demand from the agricultural film sector was weak [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the propylene supply is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates declined seasonally. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 28 yuan to 6724 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 850 dollars, the basis was 285 yuan (- 3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 74 yuan (- 20) [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Chinese PX operating rate decreased by 2.8% to 81%, and the Asian operating rate increased by 1.1% to 74.1%. Some domestic plants reduced production or were under maintenance, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads. PTA operating rate increased by 0.5% to 78.2%. In the third quarter, due to the startup of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction [22][23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 8 yuan to 4718 yuan, the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 4750 yuan, the basis was 36 yuan (- 55), and the 9 - 1 spread was 28 yuan (- 30) [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate increased by 0.5% to 78.2%. Some plants adjusted their loads. Downstream operating rates declined, and terminal demand weakened. In July, inventory is expected to decrease slightly, and the processing fee has support [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 16 yuan to 4283 yuan, the East China spot price rose 2 yuan to 4347 yuan, the basis was 71 (0), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 29 yuan (- 2) [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 0.7% to 66.5%. Some domestic and overseas plants had maintenance or restarted. Downstream operating rates declined, and port inventories increased. The fundamental situation is weak, and inventory reduction is expected to slow down [25].
银河期货原油期货早报-20250709
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 08:51
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term oil price is expected to remain firm and maintain a volatile pattern, but it is bearish in the medium term. The asphalt price may remain relatively low, the liquefied gas price is expected to be weak, the natural gas price in the US is expected to rise while that in Europe is under pressure. For various chemical products, most are expected to show a pattern of shock, with some being bearish or bullish in the short - term [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. - For forest products and paper products, the market is generally in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices showing different trends of stability, decline or shock [38][39][40][41][42]. - For rubber products, the market is affected by multiple factors, and different types of rubber have different investment suggestions, mainly focusing on waiting and seeing [44][45][46][47][48]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.33, up $0.40/barrel, a 0.59% increase; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.15, up $0.57/barrel, an 0.82% increase. SC2508 contract rose 8.6 to 509.9 yuan/barrel, and 6.4 to 516.3 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump expanded the global trade war, announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatening semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs. Japan and South Korea will negotiate with the US to ease the impact of tariff hikes. EIA raised the global oil production growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The near - term spread of crude oil is strong, Saudi Arabia raised the official price, and the refining profit has recovered. The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound thinking, medium - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3629 points (+1.11%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3439 points (+1.48%) at night. The spot price in Shandong was 3580 - 4070 yuan/ton, 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton in East China, and 3610 - 3730 yuan/ton in South China [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable. Rainy season affected demand, and the supply was sufficient [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is volatile. The supply - demand is weak in the near - term, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased. The asphalt price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and the cracking spread is expected to remain high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shock; the asphalt - crude oil spread is stable; wait and see for options [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4170 (-0.33%) at night, PG2509 closed at 4073 (-0.12%) at night. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends [5]. - **Related News**: The price in South China declined, that in Shandong was stable with partial small drops, and that in East China generally declined [5][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply decreased, the demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical fields, and the inventory decreased. The fundamentals of liquefied gas are loose, and the price is expected to be weak [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak operation [7]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, demand was strong, and LNG exports increased, so the price is expected to rise. European natural gas prices fell due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH on dips; shock for TTF [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2992 (+0.84%) at night, LU09 closed at 3709 (+1.28%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market showed different spreads [8]. - **Related News**: India HPCL offered HSFO, there were attacks in the Red Sea, a US refinery had problems, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts fell, supply may increase but is affected by geopolitical factors, and demand has seasonal support. Low - sulfur supply increased and demand had no specific driver [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near - term and consider going long on FU91 positive spreads on dips [10]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6696 (+0.18%) during the day and 6718 (+0.33%) at night. The spot price rose, and PXN decreased [11]. - **Related News**: A refinery's crude distillation unit caught fire, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The social inventory of PX is low, supply is tight, and Asian PX operating rates declined. Downstream demand will increase, and PX is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4710 (0%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [11][12]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and a PTA device in South China returned to normal operation [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis of PTA declined, some devices were under maintenance or had load changes, downstream demand was weak, and inventory accumulation was expected [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4267 (-0.28%) during the day and 4270 (+0.07%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and some ethylene glycol devices restarted [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of some domestic and foreign devices increased, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6518 (0%) during the day and 6528 (+0.15%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [15][16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber devices reduced production or were under maintenance, the processing margin expanded, and the processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not clearly mentioned in the text, but similar to other products, wait - and - see for arbitrage and options can be inferred [17]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 5866 (-0.10%) during the day and 5876 (+0.17%) at night. The spot market trading was average [17]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle chips was partially lowered [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee of bottle chips strengthened, some devices reduced production or stopped, and the price is expected to follow the raw material side in a shock [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5931 during the day and 5989 (+0.98%) at night. EB2508 closed at 7276 (-0.83%) during the day and 7297 (+0.29%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene decreased, and that of styrene had different ranges [20]. - **Related News**: The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in ports increased, a new styrene device was planned to be tested, and a refinery's device had problems [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and demand is expected to increase. The supply of styrene will increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The price of styrene is under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; long pure benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [22]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in most regions declined, and the price of PP in different regions also showed a downward trend [23]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratio of PE remained unchanged, and that of PP increased slightly [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is large capacity - putting pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand is weak, and the strategy is to short on rallies [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish in the short - and medium - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was in a narrow - range adjustment, and the caustic soda spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased [24][25]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was stable, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling had different changes [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC has new capacity - putting pressure, demand is weak, and exports face risks, so the price is under pressure. Caustic soda has a short - term bullish expectation but faces capacity - putting pressure in July - August [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Caustic soda: short - term shock bullish; PVC: short on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash decreased, and the spot price was in a weak shock [29]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, the photovoltaic industry had an impact, and the market was generally weak [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of soda ash reached the extreme and then declined, demand was weak, inventory accumulated, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak fundamentals, price is weak but not likely to fall sharply; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [31]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass decreased in a shock, and the spot price in different regions showed different trends [31][32]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, and the sales in different regions of glass were different [31][32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is in a shock decline, the cost of soda ash decreases, demand has no improvement, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - logic continues, glass is in a weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures price of methanol declined, and the spot price in different regions showed different levels [33][34]. - **Related News**: The signing volume of methanol in Northwest China decreased [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international supply of methanol increases, domestic supply is loose, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: The futures price of urea increased, and the spot price in different regions increased slightly [36]. - **Related News**: An Indian urea tender had results [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of urea decreased slightly, demand is weak in the domestic market, and the inventory is still high. The Indian tender price is high, which may boost the market in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high [36][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bullish; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [38]. Log - **Related News**: The price of some logs in Jiangsu decreased, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China changed, and the freight rate had an upward and downward trend [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need to be considered. The difference in ruler size supports the price, and future交割 details need to be concerned [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait and see for options [40]. Double - Coated Paper - **Related News**: The trading atmosphere of double - coated paper was average, the price was stable, and the supply and demand were both weak [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is stable, demand is limited, and the cost of wood pulp decreases, which eases the cost pressure on paper mills [40]. Corrugated Paper - **Related News**: The price of corrugated and box - board paper was generally stable with some weakness, the price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the supply and demand of raw materials had different situations [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the profit is expected to be slightly repaired [41]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp was in a weak shock, and the spot price of different types of pulp had different trends [42]. - **Related News**: A large - scale investment project in the pulp and paper industry was planned [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The economic indicators in different regions are favorable, but the US dollar index is unfavorable to the pulp price [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the SP09 contract; hold the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss [44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Numbered Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of RU, NR, and BR increased, and the spot price of different types of rubber showed different levels [44][45][47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [45][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The export of Chinese tires and the US auto order data are favorable to the RU price [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the RU09 and NR09 contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss; wait and see for options [46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of BR increased, and the spot price in different regions had different levels [47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in crude oil prices is unfavorable to the BR - RU spread, and the US rubber and plastic product import data is slightly favorable to the BR price [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the BR09 contract; consider the BR2509 - NR2509 spread and set a stop - loss; wait and see for the BR2509 call option [48][49].
广发期货日评-20250709
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 05:12
1. Operation Suggestions - Entering a new round of US trade policy negotiation window, the index has broken through the upper limit of the short - term oscillation range and the central value continues to rise. Consider buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options to implement a bullish spread strategy. The short - term fluctuation range of T2509 may be between 108.8 - 109.2. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. For the curve strategy, continue to recommend steepening [2]. 2. Financial Sector 2.1 Treasury Bonds - With the bottoming out of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. The curve strategy still recommends steepening [3]. 2.2 Precious Metals - The market has digested part of the impact of US tariffs. As the US dollar strengthens, gold prices have declined. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver prices are affected by gold and non - ferrous industrial products and fluctuate repeatedly, oscillating in the range of $36 - 37 in the short term [3]. 2.3 Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC contract has moved up on the disk. Be cautiously bullish on the EC08 main contract [3]. 3. Black Sector 3.1 Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial steel products have deteriorated. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - The sentiment in the black sector has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Go long on dips, with the fluctuation range referring to 700 - 750 [3]. 3.3 Coking Coal - The auction non - transaction rate in the market has decreased, the expectation of coal mine resumption has strengthened, the spot market is running strongly, trading has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. Go long on dips [3]. 3.4 Coke - The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the coking profit has declined, with the price approaching the阶段性 bottom. Go long on dips [3]. 4. Non - Ferrous Sector 4.1 Copper - The logic of LME soft squeeze has weakened. Pay attention to the rhythm of US tariff policies. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80000 [3]. 4.2 Alumina - The spot market has tightened temporarily, and the disk has strongly broken through the 3100 pressure level. The main contract reference range is 2850 - 3150 [3]. 4.3 Aluminum - The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The main contract reference range is 19800 - 20800 [3]. 4.4 Aluminum Alloy - The disk fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the fundamentals remain weak in the off - season. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [3]. 4.5 Zinc - Concerns about tariffs have resurfaced, and the demand outlook remains weak. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [3]. 4.6 Tin - There are significant short - term macro disturbances. Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 4.7 Stainless Steel - There are still macro risks, and the disk has slightly declined. The industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [3]. 4.8 Nickel - The disk has been slightly boosted, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. 5. Energy and Chemical Sector 5.1 Crude Oil - The tariff issue has eased, and positive factors have driven the disk up. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. The resistance levels for WTI are [68, 69], for Brent are [70, 71], and for SC are [510, 520] [3]. 5.2 Urea - There is still some order support on the demand side. Pay attention to the progress of export - related news in the future. Enter the market cautiously on dips in the short term. If the actual demand fails to meet expectations, exit the market. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [3]. 5.3 PX - Oil prices are strong, but the supply - demand margin has weakened. The short - term driving force for PX is limited. PX09 will operate in the range of 6500 - 6900 in the short term. Pay attention to the support at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.4 PTA - The supply - demand outlook has weakened, but the cost side is strong. PTA will maintain an oscillation. In the short term, it will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900. Short at the upper end of the range. Implement a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA9 - 1 [3]. 5.5 Short - Fiber - With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing margin has improved. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA. Expand the processing margin at the low level of the PF disk. Pay attention to the pressure around 1100 for the disk processing margin and the implementation of future production cuts [3]. 5.6 Bottle Chip - It is the peak demand season, production cuts of bottle chips have increased, the processing margin has recovered, and PR fluctuates with costs. The processing margin of the PR main disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Look for opportunities to expand at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.7 Ethanol - The supply - demand situation is gradually turning to be loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will face pressure above. Pay attention to the pressure around 4400 for EG09 in the short term. Sell call options at high levels. Implement a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 at high levels [3]. 5.8 Caustic Soda - There has been a macro - stimulated rebound. Pay attention to whether the alumina purchase price will follow. With the strong short - term macro sentiment, it is expected to rebound at low levels, but the momentum depends on the follow - up of the spot market [3]. 5.9 PVC - Driven by the expectation of "supply - side optimization", still pay attention to the anti - dumping duty ruling in July. Be cautiously optimistic about the rebound space of near - month contracts [3]. 5.10 Pure Benzene - The supply - demand margin has improved, but the driving force for near - month contracts is limited due to high inventory. Be cautiously bearish on far - month contracts. Since the first - line contract BZ2603 of pure benzene is far away in time, the driving force is limited under the supply - demand game. Be cautiously bearish or wait and see for unilateral operations. Implement a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [3]. 5.11 Styrene - The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the cost support is limited. Styrene may gradually face pressure. It is recommended to sell call options with a strike price above 7500 for EB08 [3]. 5.12 Synthetic Rubber - Due to an unexpected device incident, butadiene has rebounded, boosting the rise of BR. Pay attention to the pressure around 11500 for BR2508 in the short term [3]. 5.13 LLDPE - Trading has weakened, and prices have slightly declined. It will oscillate in the short term [3]. 5.14 PP - Both supply and demand are weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. Be cautiously bearish. Enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [3]. 5.15 Methanol - The basis has rapidly weakened. Pay attention to Iranian shipments. Conduct range - bound operations between 2200 - 2500 [3]. 6. Agricultural Sector 6.1 Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade with a short - bias on rebounds [3]. 6.2 Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Hold short positions on rallies in the short term [3]. 6.3 Eggs - The spot market remains weak. Be bearish in the long - term [3]. 6.4 Apples - Trading is light, and prices have weakened. The main contract will operate around 7700 [3]. 6.5 Jujubes - Market prices have fluctuated slightly. The main contract will operate around 10500 [3]. 6.6 Peanuts - Market prices have oscillated steadily. The main contract will operate around 8100 [3]. 6.7 Soda Ash - Inventory accumulation continues, and the oversupply pattern is prominent. Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. 7. Special Commodity Sector 7.1 Glass - The macro atmosphere has warmed up, and the disk has generally performed strongly. Wait and see in the short term [3]. 7.2 Rubber - There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Hold short positions above 14000 [3]. 7.3 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price has rebounded with polysilicon. Wait and see [3]. 8. New Energy Sector 8.1 Polysilicon - The spot quotation of polysilicon has been raised, and multiple futures contracts have reached the daily limit. Wait and see [3]. 8.2 Lithium Carbonate - The disk is running strongly, but there are increasing macro risks and fundamental pressure. The main contract reference range is 60,000 - 65,000 [3]. 9. Stock Index - The market trading sentiment is becoming more optimistic, and the broader market is approaching a new high [4].