工业硅：关注上游工厂减产情况 多晶硅：区间震荡，波动放大 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 30 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,715 382,415 | -165 -152,155 | 120 75,473 | -400 58,891 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 221,065 | -3,677 | -541 | -16,583 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 56,500 | -2,455 | -2,345 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 69,428 | -61,662 | -143,852 | - | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are all "oscillating" [7][8][82] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate in the new energy industry are all expected to oscillate. Industrial silicon has increasing supply, decreasing demand, and fluctuating inventory; polysilicon has a speculative sentiment, and its supply and demand will both decrease in December, but the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve; lithium carbonate has strong terminal demand, and the industrial chain is in a game over long - term contract prices, with short - term price increases and risks of chasing high prices [7][8][82] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%, and the number of operating furnaces is 243, a week - on - week increase of 3. The production in Xinjiang has increased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased. The production in November was 401,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the planned production in December is 401,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% and a year - on - year increase of 20.78% [7] - **Demand Side**: For polysilicon, the weekly production is 26,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%, and the factory inventory is 308,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly production is 45,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42% [7] - **Inventory Side**: The explicit inventory is 503,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78%, and the industry inventory is 456,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30%. However, the warehouse receipt inventory is 47,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52% [7] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,091 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52%, and the gross profit per ton is - 92 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton [7] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply center is moving to the northwest, the demand is weak, and the inventory is fluctuating [7] 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 26,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%. The production in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is 9,500 tons, 8,300 tons, 400 tons, and 1,200 tons respectively. The production in November was 114,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.48% and a year - on - year increase of 2.69%; the planned production in December is 113,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 16.65% [8] - **Demand Side**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 10.50GW, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32%. The new installed capacity in November 2025 was 22.02GW, a year - on - year decrease of 11.92% and a month - on - month increase of 74.76% [8] - **Inventory Side**: The factory inventory is 308,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%, and the registered warehouse receipts are 11,910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.47% [8] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 42,322 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.55%, and the gross profit per ton is 7,889 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 126 yuan [8] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The price is expected to oscillate. Although the supply and demand will both decrease in December, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is a speculative sentiment in the short term [8] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 22,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The production in November was 95,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.35% and a year - on - year increase of 49.00%; the planned production in December is about 98,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00% and a year - on - year increase of 40.97% [82] - **Import Side**: In November, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 677,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year increase of 40.42% [82] - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate is 101,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.08%, and the weekly production of ternary materials is 19,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.25% [82] - **Terminal Demand**: In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative bidding for energy storage was 201.5GWh, a year - on - year increase of 44%, and the cumulative winning bids were 153.2GWh, a year - on - year increase of 170.67% [82] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 10,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59%, and the lithium salt factory inventory is 17,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% [82] - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external ore purchase is 109,946 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.18%, and the production profit is - 9,014 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,986 yuan/ton [82] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The price is expected to oscillate. The terminal demand is strong, but the price has risen rapidly in the short term, and there is a risk of chasing high prices [82]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The terminal demand is still weak, and the fundamentals of hot-rolled coils are under pressure. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The macro level is still in the policy observation period, and attention should be paid to the "dual carbon" policy and its marginal impact on the steel industry [2]. - The supply of iron ore has decreased in the latest period, the demand has remained stable, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. With the late Spring Festival in 2026, there is some room for replenishment demand. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate in the shock range [5]. - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has become more positive, but the capital's interest in the black sector has declined. Attention should be paid to the risk of a rebound in the black sector at low levels, especially in the alloy sector. The future market of manganese and silicon ferroalloys is mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. - The supply of industrial silicon has slightly increased, and the demand support has weakened, with the possibility of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [14][15]. - Due to the strengthening of exchange supervision, the sentiment of the polysilicon futures market has cooled. The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease further. The price of the upstream raw materials is supported by the price increase in the industrial chain, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions [17]. - The glass market is in the traditional off - season, with weak supply and demand. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - The supply of soda ash is abundant, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is expected to be limited [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3118 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (-0.28%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1815 tons to 60442 tons. The main contract's open interest decreased by 47415 lots to 1.534424 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3160 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Last Friday, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate in the bottom range. This week, the rebar production slightly increased, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory was at a five - year low [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton (0.091%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 104588 tons. The main contract's open interest decreased by 6522 lots to 1.23239 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong remained unchanged at 3260 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand slightly increased, the inventory continued to decrease, and the inventory contradiction was marginally alleviated. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.58% (+4.50). The open interest increased by 13627 lots to 580700 lots. The weighted open interest was 941200 lots. The price of PB fines in Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.53% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased in the latest period. The daily average pig iron output remained stable. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill's inventory of imported ore increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate in the shock range [5]. Manganese and Silicon Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On December 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.10% at 5840 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, equivalent to the futures price. The weekly price of the futures weighted index increased by 34 yuan/ton or +0.58% [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. Future market trends are mainly affected by the black sector's direction and cost - push factors from manganese ore [11]. Silicon Ferro - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of silicon ferro (SF603) closed down 0.35% at 5672 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price. The weekly price of the futures weighted index increased by 36 yuan/ton or +0.64% [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply - demand structure of silicon ferro remains basically balanced, with marginal improvement. Future market trends are mainly affected by the black sector's direction and supply - contraction factors due to losses [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8880 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.51% (+45). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6205 lots to 402891 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis values of 320 yuan/ton and - 30 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The production in the southwest has reached a low level, while the operating rate in Xinjiang has increased. The demand from polysilicon has weakened, and the demand from organic silicon is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 58955 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.97% (-1805). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 19718 lots to 193125 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon and N - type dense material remained unchanged, and the average price of N - type re - feed material increased by 0.05 yuan/kg. The basis was - 6555 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Due to the strengthening of exchange supervision, the market sentiment has cooled. The production is expected to decrease further. The price increase in the industrial chain supports the raw material price, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of glass closed at 1047 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 0.10% (-1). The prices of large - sized glass in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 65000 cases (+0.11%) to 58.623 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 25732 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 29724 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The market has entered the traditional off - season, with weak supply and demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1184 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, unchanged from the previous day. The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 6 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 60800 tons (-4.06%) to 1.4385 million tons, including a decrease of 68700 tons in heavy - soda inventory and an increase of 7900 tons in light - soda inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 20353 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 23163 lots [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is expected to be limited [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Industry and capital are in a game, with nickel prices likely to fluctuate widely. Stainless steel is constrained by fundamentals, and its direction depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter [3][5][7]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventories are accumulating, and short - term supply is expected to be disrupted. Polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to short industrial silicon after a rebound, and polysilicon is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [34][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, but optimistic expectations are strengthening. The futures main contract price is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [67][68]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter after the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [84][86][87]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures will oscillate, and risks during the New Year's Day holiday should be avoided [101]. - **Corn**: Focus on the performance of the spot market. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation in northern ports, the inventory building of traders, and the amount of supply from the grass - roots level [114]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a low - level range consolidation. The domestic sugar market maintains a weak basis expectation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm, India's production and relevant industrial policies, and domestic import policy changes [137][159]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain low - level oscillation in the short term. Domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillation, but the upward space may be limited [167][178]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The LH2601 futures contract may rise rapidly, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread [182][183]. - **Peanuts**: Spot prices are stable, and futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the purchase strategies of large - scale oil mills [202]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Industry News**: Indonesian government may cut nickel ore quotas to 2.5 billion tons in 2026 and include cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. The cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10% [3][4]. - **Market Trend**: Nickel prices may fluctuate widely due to the game between industry and capital. Stainless steel is constrained by fundamentals, and its cost center has shifted upward [5][7]. - **Inventory**: On December 26, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 263 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons. SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 8% month - on - month [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price closed at 8,880 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures price closed at 58,955 yuan/ton [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: Industrial silicon inventories are accumulating, with supply expected to decrease and demand remaining weak. Polysilicon supply and demand are both weak, with upstream inventories accumulating [30][31][33]. - **Future Outlook**: Industrial silicon is expected to have its price lifted by sentiment in the short term, but the upward space is limited. Polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Fluctuation**: This week, lithium carbonate futures prices rose significantly. The 2601 contract closed at 127,800 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose to 111,900 yuan/ton [64]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas shipments are increasing, and short - term production elasticity is limited. Positive electrode factories are starting maintenance, and demand is in the off - season [65]. - **Market Outlook**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, but optimistic expectations are strengthening. The futures main contract price is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [67][68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Logic**: In December, palm oil production decreased by nearly 10%, and high - frequency export data was good. Soybean oil rebounded following palm oil [82][83]. - **This Week's Logic**: Palm oil production in December decreased by 8%, and exports increased by 2%. It may confirm the price bottom in the short term. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range [84][86]. - **Market Outlook**: Palm oil needs to wait for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom. Soybean oil is waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [84][86][87]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Previous Week's Market**: Last week, US soybean futures prices fluctuated, with the main 03 - month contract rising 1.16%. Domestic soybean meal futures prices were strongly oscillating, and soybean No.1 futures prices rose slightly [97]. - **Fundamentals**: China's purchase of US soybeans is limited, and Brazilian soybean import costs have decreased. Domestic soybean meal trading volume has increased, and soybean No.1 prices are stable [97][99][100]. - **Future Forecast**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures will oscillate, and risks during the New Year's Day holiday should be avoided [101]. Corn - **Market Review**: Last week, corn spot prices fell slightly, and futures prices rebounded. Corn starch inventories increased [109][110][113]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices rose, wheat prices fell, and imported corn auctions restarted. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot market [111][112][114]. Sugar - **Market Review**: Internationally, the New York raw sugar active contract price rose 2.15%. Domestically, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract price rose 197 yuan/ton [135][136]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the 25/26 season, Brazil's sugar production increased by 450,000 tons, India's increased by 1.72 million tons, and Thailand's increased by 1.27 million tons [135]. - **Market Outlook**: The international sugar market is in a low - level range consolidation. The domestic sugar market maintains a weak basis expectation [137][159]. Cotton - **Market Review**: ICE cotton rebounded slightly, and domestic cotton prices rose. Cotton exports from the US improved, and India's CCI continued to purchase [161][166][167]. - **Supply and Demand**: New cotton has been on the market for more than three months, supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is in the off - season. However, the market is not pessimistic about the annual demand in the 2025/26 season [162][178]. - **Market Outlook**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain low - level oscillation in the short term. Domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillation, but the upward space may be limited [167][178]. Live Pigs - **Market Review**: Spot prices were strong, and futures prices oscillated strongly. Supply decreased, and demand was still in the peak season [180][181]. - **Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The LH2601 futures contract may rise rapidly, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread [182][183]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and oil mill开机率 increased [201]. - **Market Outlook**: Spot prices are stable, and futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the purchase strategies of large - scale oil mills [202].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating / Polysilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory in Q1 26 during the dry - season. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, although there may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified, so it is more advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices [3][17][18] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon increased by 190 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8880 yuan/ton. The SMM spot East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9250 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1290 yuan/ton to 58955 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock increased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week to 53900 yuan/ton [10] 2. Intensified Production Cuts in Organic Silicon, Rising Prices of Silicon Wafers and Batteries Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward this week. Some large factories in Xinjiang increased production by 2 furnaces and some had 2 furnaces under maintenance, with the total unchanged. Inner Mongolia had 4 furnaces under maintenance, and Gansu increased production by 4 furnaces after previous maintenance. SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week, and sample factory inventory increased by 0.31 million tons. The industrial silicon market is in tight balance in December, but may accumulate inventory in Q1 next year if production cuts are not sustained. After the price increase, some large factories started hedging sales, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low. Attention should be paid to whether the polysilicon sector will cut production [12] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some companies reduced production loads. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 68.33%, with a weekly output of 45200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42%. The inventory was 44000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2%. With the supply contraction and inventory decline, the price may rise steadily after the pre - festival restocking demand is released [12][13] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. After the establishment of the platform company, the spot price of polysilicon rose again. As of December 25, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 303,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The production schedule in January is not clear, but the shipment volume will be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons. There may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, but the polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [14] Silicon Wafers - The price of silicon wafers strengthened significantly this week. The expected production volume in December is 45GW and may decline further in January. As of December 25, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 21.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.19GW. Four leading enterprises raised their quotes on the 25th. Attention should be paid to whether batteries and components can pass on the price [15] Battery Cells - The price of battery cells rose rapidly this week due to the rising silver paste price. As of December 22, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 10.06GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.62GW. Leading battery cell manufacturers raised their prices again, but the price increase of components was less than expected. If the price cannot be passed on, the start - up rate in January is expected to decline [15] Components - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Affected by the rising battery cell price, component enterprises raised their quotes. The domestic end - of - year installation demand ended, and overseas orders had no significant increase. Professional component factories will start reducing production in January, and the domestic production volume in January may fall below 30GW. As of December 15, the finished - product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 31.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.5GW [16] 3. Investment Recommendations - For industrial silicon, although the market rumors and positive sentiment in the commodity market drove the price up, from the fundamental perspective, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, but investors should hold positions carefully due to large price fluctuations and risk - control measures from the exchange [3][17][18] 4. Hot News Compilation - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening order quantity, trading fee standard, and trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts. The Zhihui Photovoltaic adjusted the price limit range and trading margin standard of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts during the New Year holiday in 2026 [19][20] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - This part mainly includes various data charts of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, such as the price, output, inventory, and profit data of each link, with specific data sources provided [21][30][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - This week (2025.12.19 - 2025.12.26), the spot price of industrial silicon trended upward, with the benchmark spot price at 8800 yuan/ton on December 26, up 0.79% from December 19. The futures market's main contract fluctuated downward, but with a weekly increase of 2.19%. The current main - month contract's open interest is about 224,700 lots [9]. - Supply slightly increased as production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased, while that in the Northwest increased, and Hunan stopped production entirely. However, due to weak downstream demand, this change had no significant market impact [9]. - Demand for industrial silicon decreased as the supply of polysilicon continued to shrink in December, the domestic silicone industry's production reduction advanced, and the output of aluminum rods slightly decreased. Exports in November 2025 were 54,900 tons, up 21.78% month - on - month and 3.72% year - on - year. From January to November, the total export was 661,500 tons, showing an increase compared to previous months [9]. - Costs were basically stable this week, and profits increased due to stable costs and rising market prices [9]. - Overall inventory trended upward [9]. - Looking ahead, with stable supply, weak downstream and terminal demand, and high inventory, the market is expected to decline further. Suggested strategies include shorting si2605 at high prices, with an expected operating range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton; buying put options; or using an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [9]. Polysilicon - This week (2025.12.19 - 2025.12.26), the spot price of polysilicon fluctuated within a range. The benchmark spot price on December 26 was 56,105 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from December 19. The futures market's main contract fluctuated upward, but with a weekly decrease of 2.14%. The current main - month contract's open interest is about 119,100 lots [11]. - Supply continued to shrink in December, with a small overall decline. Although some enterprises in the Southwest reduced production due to the dry season, there was an increase in the Northwest. The domestic polysilicon output in December is expected to be about 115,000 tons, and supply may continue to decline slightly next month [11]. - Overall demand contracted due to the off - season, and downstream procurement was sluggish due to production cuts and high inventory, making it difficult for industry demand to recover quickly. Short - term attention should be paid to inventory digestion and downstream production scheduling changes [11]. - Costs increased slightly this week, and profits decreased slightly [11]. - The current polysilicon industry inventory is high and difficult to reverse substantially. The overall reduction in supply was limited, and it did not fully match the decline in demand [11]. - Most polysilicon enterprises have raised new order quotes to 65,000 yuan/ton, reflecting their optimistic expectations and price - support intentions. The price difference between quotes and transactions is a game between cost support from production cuts and cautious procurement due to weak downstream demand. The establishment of the purchase and storage platform is seen as a potential positive factor, improving market sentiment and transaction atmosphere. Suggested strategies include going long on PS2605 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 55,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton; buying call options; or using an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Week - on - Week Views and Hot News - **Hot News**: On December 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation conducted compliance guidance on price competition in the photovoltaic industry in Hefei, Anhui. It pointed out "involution - style" competition issues in the industry. On December 24, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added several polysilicon futures delivery warehouses. On December 23, it restricted the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in polysilicon futures. On December 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that 2026 would be a critical period for photovoltaic industry governance. On December 12, the "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" was officially established [6]. - **Industrial Silicon Week - on - Week View**: See the core views section above [9]. - **Polysilicon Week - on - Week View**: See the core views section above [11]. Industry Structure - The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc., which are used to produce industrial silicon. Industrial silicon is further processed into organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloys, and these products are applied in various fields such as electronics, construction, and photovoltaics [17]. Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Prices**: There are price charts for different grades and regions of industrial silicon, including 553 and 421 grades, in various ports and locations [23][24][29][31]. - **Futures Contracts**: There are charts for the closing and settlement prices of continuous and active contracts of industrial silicon [37][41]. Inventory - There are charts showing the industrial silicon industry inventory, factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [50][54]. Cost and Profit - **Profit and Cost**: There are charts for the comprehensive profit and cost of all grades of industrial silicon [61]. - **Main Production Area Electricity Prices**: There are price charts for industrial silicon electricity in multiple main and non - main production areas [67][72][75][83][89]. - **Silica Stone Prices**: There are price charts for silica stone in different regions [95][99]. - **Petroleum Coke, Electrodes, and Silicon Coal**: There are price charts for petroleum coke, graphite electrodes, and silicon coal in different regions [102][108]. Supply - **Output**: There are charts for the weekly and monthly output, monthly capacity, and production start - up rate of industrial silicon [115][119]. - **Newly Added Capacity**: Multiple companies in different regions have newly added industrial silicon production capacity, with a total of 1.88 million tons [123]. Demand - **Consumption Overview**: There are charts for the consumption breakdown and structure of industrial silicon [126]. - **Polysilicon**: There are charts for the monthly output, price, factory inventory, cost, and profit of polysilicon [132][138]. - **Organic Silicon**: There are charts for the market price, intermediate production, production cost, and production profit of organic silicon in the East China region [143][149]. - **Aluminum Rods**: There are charts for the weekly and monthly output, price, and inventory of aluminum rods, as well as the output, start - up rate, and inventory of primary and secondary aluminum alloys [154][159][161][168][172]. - **Solar/PV**: There are charts for the cumulative output of solar cells and the price of battery cells [179]. Import and Export - There are charts for the import and export volumes of industrial silicon and polysilicon [189][193].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to price fluctuations constrained by cost support and weak demand [1][2]. Supply Side - Production remains stable across major production areas, particularly in Xinjiang, but price differentiation in the spot market has increased due to volatility in futures prices [2]. - Some manufacturers are either maintaining firm quotes, refraining from quoting, or selling below market average to improve cash flow, resulting in a low operating rate [2]. - The current low-price environment is suppressing production enthusiasm, with many existing capacities used for internal settlements or long-term sales [2]. - Overall, the supply side is supported by costs, but slow inventory depletion and reduced downstream production are leading to inventory accumulation in some regions [2]. Demand Side - Demand from downstream sectors, particularly organic silicon and polysilicon industries, is weak, leading to reduced procurement of industrial silicon [2]. - The photovoltaic industry is generally experiencing losses, further suppressing industrial silicon consumption [2]. - Although the aluminum alloy market saw a slight increase in futures prices (from 21,110 CNY/ton to 21,480 CNY/ton), it has limited impact on driving demand for industrial silicon [2]. Price Trends - The comprehensive price of industrial silicon in China as of December 24 is 9,245 CNY/ton, down 5 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][3]. - Specific prices include 5 at 8,713 CNY/ton (down 94 CNY/ton) and 4 at 9,169 CNY/ton (up 51 CNY/ton) [1][3]. - Regional prices vary, with Xinjiang at 8,810 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 10,005 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 10,050 CNY/ton [1][3]. Market Outlook - The industrial silicon market is expected to continue its range-bound fluctuations in the short term, with future trends dependent on the recovery pace of downstream demand and the progress of inventory depletion [2].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to price fluctuations constrained by cost support and weak demand [1][3]. Supply Side - Production remains stable across major production areas, particularly in Xinjiang, but price differentiation has increased due to volatile futures prices. Some manufacturers are either maintaining high quotes or choosing not to quote at all, while others are selling below market average to improve cash flow [2]. - The operating rates in regions like Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Gansu are at low levels due to a prolonged low-price environment, which has suppressed production enthusiasm. Overall transaction volumes remain low despite some attempts to support prices [2]. - The pricing mechanism is becoming more financialized, with a growing trend of using a "futures price + basis" procurement model, enhancing the linkage between spot prices and futures markets [2]. Demand Side - Demand from downstream sectors, particularly the organic silicon and polysilicon industries, is weak, leading to reduced procurement of industrial silicon. The overall support for demand is insufficient, with risks of further demand contraction highlighted by losses across the photovoltaic industry chain [2]. - Although the aluminum alloy market has seen a slight increase in futures prices (from 21,110 yuan/ton to 21,480 yuan/ton), this has not significantly boosted demand for industrial silicon [2]. Market Overview - The industrial silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation and continued price fluctuations. While supply is supported by costs, slow inventory depletion and reduced downstream production are leading to demand contraction, resulting in price resistance [3]. - Short-term price expectations indicate continued range-bound fluctuations, with future trends heavily dependent on the recovery pace of downstream demand and the progress of inventory depletion [3]. Price Data - As of December 24, the national average price for industrial silicon is 9,245 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. Specific grades show varied price movements, with 553 at 8,713 yuan/ton (down 94 yuan/ton) and 441 at 9,169 yuan/ton (up 51 yuan/ton) [1][4]. - Regional prices vary, with Xinjiang at 8,810 yuan/ton, Yunnan at 10,005 yuan/ton, and Sichuan at 10,050 yuan/ton [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve but still maintain an inventory accumulation pattern. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news, and there may be upside potential if there are relevant policies. For polysilicon, manufacturers' production cuts and positive policies support prices, and the consumer end is boosted, with the price expected to fluctuate upwards [3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8820 yuan/ton and closed at 8835 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.28%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 216554 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 24, 2025, was 9259 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Supply**: The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat. As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.3 tons, down 1.43% from the previous week [1] - **Consumption**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton. The weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable, and the expected output in December was around 11.4 tons, with limited change in demand for industrial silicon. The weekly production schedule of silicone fluctuated slightly, with a possible reduction of about 5000 tons in December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable, and the demand in the aluminum alloy downstream weakened marginally [2] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 57780 yuan/ton and closing at 60760 yuan/ton, up 4.80% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 132126 lots, and the trading volume was 124231 lots [4] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 25000.00 tons, up 1.20% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer output was 10.67GW, down 12.18% week - on - week [4] - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component**: The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were basically stable, with only slight changes in some products [4][5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range - bound operation [3] - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options operations [3][4] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range - bound operation, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [6] - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options operations [6]