过去一年，铜、金、银等品种的快速上涨，重新点燃了市场对"大宗商品超级周期"的想象。但问题是：这轮上涨，究竟只是结构 性行情，还是一轮真正意义上的商品大牛市前奏？ 国联民生证券在最新发布的资产配置系列报告中，从1850年以来超过170年的长周期视角，对商品牛市的形成条件进行了系统复 盘，给出的结论并不激进，甚至略显克制——本轮商品周期尚未"走完必要步骤"。 国联民生证券指出，历史上真正的商品大牛市，往往并非始于繁荣，而是从经济低谷中诞生，并最终在经济过热甚至衰退中完成 定价。 百年复盘：真正的商品牛市，平均持续12年，但起点都很"冷" 国联民生证券基于 David Jacks 的实际商品价格指数，并结合 Christiano–Fitzgerald 滤波，对1850年以来的商品价格进行了长周期 分解，识别出5轮典型的商品上涨大周期。 这些周期有几个高度一致的特征： 更关键的是，每一轮商品大周期的起点，几乎都对应着一次经济低谷或危机后的阶段性"出清"： 平均持续约11.8年 剔除通胀后，实际商品价格平均上涨约79%，若考虑通胀，名义涨幅约125% 上涨并非线性，而是伴随宏观波动反复推进 1897年：长期通缩与工业调 ...

行 业 有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2026/01/16-2026/01/29） 金属价格高位震荡，有色板块分化加剧 2026 年 1 月 30 日 S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 行 业 研 究 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 投资要点： 申万有色金属行业指数走势 贵金属。黄金方面，近期在地缘局势扰动以及资金涌入等推动下，黄金价格 再度上行。短期需重点关注避险情绪退却、投机资金退出等风险。截至1月29 日，COMEX黄金价格收于5410.80美元/盎司，较1月初上涨1068.9美元，COMEX 白银价格收于115.79元/盎司，较1月初上涨44.81美元，上海黄金交易所黄金 Au（T+D）价格收于1243.40元/克，较1月初上涨269.01元。建议关注紫金矿 业（601899）。 工业金属。在全球降息周期开启的大背景下，有色金属价格屡创新高。随着 主流工业金属铜、锡等供需格局加快转好，以及工业金属补涨贵金属的机会 仍存，工业金属价格有望进一步上行。截至1月29日，LME铜价收于1370 ...

| 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | 总成交量 (万手) ▼ | 总成交额(亿元) ▼ | 净流入 (亿元) ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌家数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 种植业与林业 | 3.81 | 2725.72 | 254.49 | 2.80 | ટર | 5 | | 2 | 造纸 | 2.65 | 815.26 | 53.97 | 2.87 | 18 | র্ব | | 3 | 影视院线 | 1.84 | 1471.20 | 164.68 | 7.36 | 12 | 6 | | র্ব | 通信设备 | 1.72 | 2607.68 | 1523.66 | 150.55 | 51 | 37 | | 5 | 环保设备 | 1.53 | 279.14 | 37.87 | 1.32 | 22 | 7 | | 6 | 橡胶制品 | 1.50 | 292.00 | 52.06 | 2.81 | 14 | 7 | | 7 | 自动化设备 | 1.35 | 865.25 | 387.35 | 11.47 | 62 | 27 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced significant volatility on January 30, with major indices showing mixed performance, including a drop of over 2% for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index and a recovery for the ChiNext Index [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4108.46 points, down 1.19%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.8% [2] Sector Performance - Resource stocks faced heavy losses, with the industrial metals sector dropping by 9% and precious metals stocks leading the decline [1][5] - The CPO (光模块) sector emerged as a market leader, alongside gains in agriculture, tourism, and communication equipment sectors [1] Individual Stock Movements - A total of 3872 stocks declined, while only 1494 stocks rose, with 27 stocks hitting the daily limit down [3] - Notable declines included: - Xiaocheng Technology (晓程科技) down 20% [6] - Shandong Gold (山东黄金) and Zhongjin Gold (中金黄金) both down 10% [5] - Nanshan Aluminum (南山铝业) down 10.05% [8] - Conversely, Hunan Gold (湖南黄金) saw a significant increase, hitting a daily limit up with an 8.17% rise [5] Commodity Prices - International gold and silver prices experienced volatility, with gold dropping to a low of $5111.96 per ounce, a decrease of 3.61% [7] - The industrial metals sector also faced declines, with several companies hitting the daily limit down [7] Future Market Projections - According to a report by CignalAI, the optical module market is expected to exceed $18 billion by 2025, driven by AI-related data center and transmission network construction [11]

1月30日早盘，A股市场迎来大变化。三大指数上演"过山车"行情，A股多个指数开盘集体杀 跌，科创综指盘中跌超2.5%，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指均一度跌超2%。随后多个指 数涨跌出现分化，创业板指翻红。 上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 风云突变 1月最后一个交易日的早盘，A股主要指数涨跌不一。 热门行业指数集体重挫，工业有色指数盘中下跌9%，黄金股票指数盘中下跌8.7%，A股资源 指数、稀土产业指数盘中跌幅达6%，大宗商品指数盘中跌幅超4%，成份股普遍走低，光伏 产业指数盘中下跌3%。 从市场结构看，杀跌的主力，主要是前期大涨的资源股。 贵金属里的晓程科技、赤峰黄金等 跌停，稀土股里的华宏科技跌停，工业金属股里的铜陵有色、兴业银锡、江西铜业纷纷跌 停，培育钻石股里的黄河旋风跌停。 光模块（CPO）概念板块领涨市场，农牧饲渔、旅游酒店、通信设备等板块涨幅居前。 截至午间收盘，沪指报4108.46点，跌1.19%，重回4100点；深证成指走弱跌0.96%；创业 板指涨0.8%。 个股跌多涨少，全市场共有3872只个股下跌，仅有1494只个股上涨，27只 ...

中国经济网北京1月30日讯 A股三大指数早盘涨跌不一，截至午间收盘，上证指数报4108.46点，跌幅 1.19%；深证成指报14162.20点，跌幅0.96%；创业板指报3330.91点，涨幅0.80%。 行业板块方面，种植业与林业、影视院线、通信设备等板块涨幅居前，贵金属、工业金属、小金属等 板块跌幅居前。 A股市场板块涨跌幅排行 | 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | | 总成交量 (万手) = 总成交额 (亿元) ▼ | 净流入 (亿元) ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌家数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 种植业与林业 | 4.12 | 2087.82 | 195.75 | 8.03 | ટર | 5 | | 2 | 影视院线 | 1.82 | 1056.83 | 119.04 | 6.96 | 11 | 8 | | 3 | 通信设备 | 1.22 | 1776.02 | 964.49 | 76.90 | 44 | 45 | | 4 | 旅游及酒店 | 1.13 | 820.22 | 81.53 | 3.31 | 25 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals and industrial metals sectors experienced a significant drop, with stocks like Xiaocheng Technology hitting the daily limit down, and several gold and silver concept stocks also reaching their limit down prices [1] - Spot gold fell over 4%, dropping below $5200, while spot silver declined more than 5%, falling below $110, indicating extreme market volatility [1] - Analysts attribute the sharp decline in gold and silver prices to profit-taking by investors after recent price highs, with David Meger from High Ridge Futures noting a wave of selling following record highs in precious metal prices [1] Group 2 - The London gold price was reported at $5187.647, reflecting a decrease of $189.513 or 3.52% from previous levels, with a trading range between a high of $5451.010 and a low of $5111.960 [2] - The London silver price was recorded at $110.566, down by $5.300 or 4.57%, with a trading range showing a high of $118.466 and a low of $107.947 [3]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 30 日 日内风格和题材迅速轮动。早盘黄金股和油气资源高开，但随后快速回落；与此同时，AI应用迅速上涨， SW 传媒指数一度涨超 6%，科技成为上午行情的焦点。临近中午，有色行情迎来修复，稀土永磁板块领涨。值得 注意的是，上午地产板块同样走强，低位补涨成为交易线索，为下午的风格转换埋下伏笔。午后，市场风格由成 长转换到价值，白酒接力地产迅速走强，中证白酒指数全天大涨 9.79%，成分股除贵州茅台外全部涨停，同时贵 金属、AI应用、稀土行情均显著回落。 如何看待市场风格从科技迅速切换至白酒？其一，在商业航天行情之后，结构行情基本呈现"范围更小，烈 度更强"的现象，例如 AI应用、光伏、有色金属。在这种情况下，指数维持震荡状态，而结构层面则波涛汹涌。 今日的白酒行情，同样属于这样"定点突破"的范畴。其二，白酒行情 1 月中旬以来持续下跌，存在一定的反弹 预期。但如此迅速的拉升，并不是常规的反弹&风格切换，而是偏好推升行情加速的资金同样参与其中，这也意味 着潜在反弹空间被过快消耗，反弹的持续性有待观察。其三，资金尝试推升科技时被白酒行情阻 ...

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes the resilience of the A-share market amidst multiple overseas risks and signals of regulatory easing in China, suggesting that the relationship between market performance and regulatory changes warrants further consideration [5][12] - It highlights the significant outperformance of the A-share market compared to other major indices, particularly the CSI 300, which has faced substantial redemption pressure [5][12] - The report suggests that investors should not overly worry about the CSI 300's performance, as it has already aligned with regulatory easing requirements, reducing the necessity for further pressure [5][12] Group 2: Economic Insights - China's exports continued to show strong performance in December, driven by overseas investment during a global easing cycle, positively impacting sectors like electrical and mechanical equipment [6][13] - Domestic consumption is recovering, with a rebound in per capita consumer spending in the fourth quarter, aligning with the report's annual strategy predictions [6][13] - The report notes that recent government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing real estate are expected to support synchronized recovery in both domestic and external demand [6][13] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Recommendations - The report identifies a dual focus for 2026 on physical assets and Chinese assets, with thematic investments being essential [7][16] - Recommended sectors include physical assets such as copper, aluminum, tin, gold, lithium, and oil, alongside Chinese equipment export chains like electrical grid equipment and renewable energy [7][16] - The report also highlights sectors benefiting from capital market expansion and improving long-term asset returns, such as non-bank financials and consumer sectors like aviation and duty-free retail [7][16] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - **Yunnan Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ)**: The report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and a strong balance sheet, with potential for increased dividends [18] - **Hua Aluminum (600301.SH)**: The company is seen as a strong growth candidate due to rising tin and antimony prices and its position as a key beneficiary of metal consolidation in Guangxi [19] - **Yingliu Co. (603308.SH)**: The report anticipates a surge in global gas turbine demand, positioning the company to increase its market share in turbine blades [20] - **Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ)**: The company is recognized for its strong cash flow from cement operations and potential for significant dividends [21] - **Pop Mart (9992.HK)**: The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in the entertainment market through IP incubation and diverse monetization strategies [22] - **China Duty Free Group (601888.SH)**: The company is projected to strengthen its market position in the duty-free sector, benefiting from increased inbound tourism and overseas expansion [24] - **China Southern Airlines (1055.HK)**: The airline is expected to benefit from improved industry supply-demand dynamics and a large fleet size [25] - **Li Auto (2015.HK)**: The company is focusing on advancements in AI and smart driving technology, with expectations for increased vehicle sales [26] - **Lante Optics (688127.SH)**: The company is positioned to benefit from strong demand in automotive and smart imaging sectors [27] - **InnoCare Pharma (9606.HK)**: The company is advancing in the ADC field with a robust pipeline and partnerships, with several products nearing clinical registration [29]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in electronic prices is driven by a structural transformation due to explosive growth in the AI industry and rising upstream raw material costs, rather than simple cyclical fluctuations. The demand for AI is expected to continue growing rapidly, and under the backdrop of a weak dollar and resource nationalism, metal prices are likely to rise further, extending the electronic price surge into the end of this year and possibly early next year [1] Information Technology - By Q2 2025, memory prices are expected to reach a cyclical turning point due to production cuts by manufacturers and improved end-user demand. As major manufacturers shift capacity towards high-margin products like HBM, the supply of consumer-grade memory chips will continue to shrink, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap and rising prices. By the end of 2025, the rising costs of industrial metals and other raw materials will cause price increases to spread from memory chips to passive components, testing, packaging, and other segments of the entire industry chain, thereby increasing cost pressures on consumer electronics [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index have all risen this week, along with increases in DRAM and NAND memory prices. The three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor manufacturing equipment shipments from Japan has narrowed, while the three-month rolling year-on-year decline in optical cable production has also narrowed. Panel prices have increased, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of NB LCD shipments has expanded [2] Midstream Manufacturing - This week, prices for some positive electrode materials, lithium raw materials, and cobalt products have increased, while the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and DMC have decreased. The photovoltaic price index has risen, with prices for silicon materials increasing, while prices for silicon wafers and components have remained stable. The three-month rolling year-on-year decline in the production of packaging equipment has narrowed, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of metal forming machine tool production has also narrowed. The four-week rolling average of port cargo throughput and container throughput has increased year-on-year [3] Consumer Demand - Prices for fresh milk have risen, while the comprehensive price of sugar has decreased. Pork prices have increased, with the wholesale price of piglets remaining stable compared to last week, and the average price of live pigs has decreased. In terms of pig farming profits, both self-bred and purchased pig farming profits have increased. In the broiler farming sector, the price of broiler chicks has decreased. The vegetable price index has decreased, while the futures settlement price of corn has increased, and the futures settlement price of cotton has decreased. The ten-day average of box office revenue has increased, while the ten-day average of movie ticket prices has decreased [3] Resource Products - The ten-day average transaction volume of construction steel has decreased, while the prices of steel billets have remained stable and rebar prices have decreased. In terms of coal prices, the price of Qinhuangdao mixed power coal has decreased, while the price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port has increased. The futures settlement prices of coke and coking coal have both decreased. In terms of inventory, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port has increased, while coking coal inventory at Jingtang Port has decreased, and coke inventory at Tianjin Port has increased. The national cement price index has decreased. Brent crude oil prices have increased, and the national chemical product price index has risen week-on-week, with chemical prices generally increasing, particularly for fuel oil and asphalt. This week, industrial metal prices have generally risen, with prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, cobalt, and nickel increasing, while lead prices have decreased, and most inventories have risen. The prices of gold and silver in the spot and futures markets have increased [4] Financial Real Estate - The net injection in the money market has occurred. The turnover rate and daily transaction volume of A-shares have decreased. The land transaction premium rate has increased, while the transaction area of commercial housing has decreased. The number of second-hand houses listed for sale nationwide has decreased, while the listing price index has increased [4] Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas has increased. The year-on-year decline in the average daily power generation of key national power plants over a 12-week rolling period has narrowed [4]