Group 1 - Gansu has been promoting the deep integration of the futures market with the real economy since the 14th Five-Year Plan, establishing a new pattern of development that includes delivery warehouses, registered brands, financial service platforms, and leading enterprises [1] - The Gansu Securities Regulatory Bureau has collaborated with futures exchanges to set up 8 delivery warehouses and factories in key areas such as Lanzhou New Area, Yongdeng, and Jinchang, covering various commodities like aluminum, silicon iron, platinum, palladium, and apples [1] - The establishment of the Jingning apple futures delivery warehouse has significantly enhanced the brand value and market influence of "Jingning Apple," making it a central hub for fruit distribution and price formation in the northwest region [1] Group 2 - Gansu has developed a futures certification system for "Gansu brands," with 21 brands registered as designated delivery products at major futures exchanges, showcasing the quality control and standardization capabilities of key industrial enterprises [2] - Jin Chuan Group, Jiu Steel Group, and Baiyin Nonferrous Group collectively own 15 registered brands, embedding "Gansu manufacturing" standards into the national pricing system [2] - In November 2025, Jin Chuan Group's copper precious metals company became one of the first in the country to obtain dual qualifications for platinum and palladium futures brand registration and delivery warehouse, marking a significant breakthrough in the precious metals futures sector [2] Group 3 - Gansu has established 4 financial service bases in collaboration with major domestic futures exchanges to support the real economy, enhancing risk management awareness and capabilities among local SMEs [3] - The "Qiangyuan Support Enterprise" financial service base, co-established by Jin Chuan Group and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, has served over a thousand people by organizing professional training and industry research [3] - The collaboration between Jiu Steel Hongxing and the Dalian Commodity Exchange has expanded the scope of financial services, promoting the adoption of futures tools across various industries in Gansu [3] Group 4 - Leading enterprises like Jin Chuan Group, Jiu Steel Group, and Baiyin Nonferrous Group are driving the stable development of the province through integrated risk management and supply chain optimization [4] - Jin Chuan Group has established a comprehensive risk management system covering nine types of metals, with a hedging scale exceeding 230 billion yuan and covering over 3.3 million tons of metals by mid-2025 [4] - Gansu aims to continue enhancing the infrastructure and service systems for futures integration, promoting traditional industry upgrades and regional competitiveness for high-quality economic development [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, prices vary by region and type, with daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 is 5250, with a weekly change of -70; the latest price of Tianjin 72 for export is 1045 USD, with a weekly change of 20 [1]. - For silicon manganese, prices also vary by region and type, with corresponding daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5680, with a weekly change of -70 [1]. Supply - For silicon ferroalloy, data on production volume, capacity utilization, and export volume are presented. For example, the monthly production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2022 - 2026 is shown, and the monthly capacity utilization of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi is also provided [4]. - For silicon manganese, data on production volume, procurement volume, and export volume are presented. For example, the weekly production volume of silicon manganese in China from 2022 - 2026 is shown, and the monthly procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are also provided [6]. Demand - For silicon ferroalloy, demand - related data such as the production volume of crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are presented [4]. - For silicon manganese, demand - related data such as the production volume of crude steel and the estimated demand in China are presented [4][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi are presented, as well as data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions [5]. - For silicon manganese, inventory data such as warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in China are presented, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, cost - related data such as electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and profit - related data such as production costs, profits from converting to the main contract, and export profits in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are presented [5]. - For silicon manganese, profit - related data such as profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and different regions in China, and profits from converting to the main contract in Guangxi and Ningxia are presented [7].

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0%, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% year-on-year [4][14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7%, while fixed asset investment is forecasted to decline by 3.8%, particularly in real estate development, which is expected to drop by 17.2% [4][14] - By the end of 2025, China's population is estimated to be 1.40489 billion, with a net decrease of 3.39 million people due to 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths [4][14] Steel Production and Consumption - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while steel output is projected to increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][14] - The total steel exports for 2025 are anticipated to reach 11.9019 million tons, marking a 7.5% increase and setting a historical record [4][14] Market Dynamics - As of January 21, 2025, the national main port iron ore transactions were 812,000 tons, a decrease of 30.3% compared to the previous period, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 76,300 tons, down by 2.2% [4][14] - The capacity utilization rate of iron-making furnaces in 247 steel mills was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week-on-week, while the profit rate for steel mills increased by 2.17 percentage points to 39.83% [5][15] Steel Inventory and Demand - The supply of five major steel products was 8.1921 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.62 million tons, while total inventory decreased by 0.6% to 12.4701 million tons [5][15] - The apparent consumption of steel was 8.2612 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [5][15] Specific Steel Products Analysis - Rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 million tons, with total inventory slightly down by 0.04 million tons to 4.3807 million tons, while demand showed a recovery of 0.1528 million tons [6][16] - Hot-rolled steel production increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 million tons, with inventory decreasing by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 million tons, indicating a cautious market outlook among traders [7][17] Price Strategy - The short-term price range for rebar is expected to be between 3,100 and 3,200 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled steel is projected to range from 3,250 to 3,350 yuan per ton [8][18]

1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it gives specific outlooks for different commodities: - **Weakening prices with attention on downstream restocking rhythm**: Iron ore [2][5] - **Wide - range fluctuations due to raw material market disturbances**: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil [2][9] - **Wide - range fluctuations with rising cost expectations**: Ferrosilicon [2][14] - **Wide - range fluctuations with slight raw material price adjustments**: Silicomanganese [2][14] - **Weakening oscillations under both macro and micro influences**: Coke, Coking coal [2][17] - **Short - term weak price adjustments due to weak market sentiment**: Steam coal [2][21] - **Low - level oscillations**: Logs [2][23] 2. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends and fundamentals of various black series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. It provides price data, trading volume, open interest, and relevant macro and industry news for each commodity, along with trend strength indicators, all of which are used to support the specific outlooks for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 784.0 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton (- 0.70%). The open interest decreased by 11,163 hands. Imported ore prices generally declined by 2.0 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, both unchanged from the previous month [6]. - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.35%); the HC2605 contract was 3,286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%). Rebar trading volume was 633,661 hands, with an open interest increase of 1,023 hands; hot - rolled coil trading volume was 335,123 hands, with an open interest decrease of 36,985 hands. Spot prices in some regions declined slightly [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: BHP's first - half iron ore production hit a record high, and it accepted some iron ore price cuts in annual contract negotiations with China. Steel production, inventory, and import data for December 2025 were released, and the government will implement export license management for some steel products [9][12]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,556 yuan/ton and 5,542 yuan/ton respectively; silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,748 yuan/ton and 5,786 yuan/ton respectively. Some spot prices and spreads changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 21, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese price ranges in different regions were reported. In 2025, the cumulative manganese ore imports increased by 12.04% year - on - year. Some steel mills' procurement prices and volumes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were announced [15][16]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of the JM2605 contract for coking coal and the J2605 contract for coke were 1,129 yuan/ton and 1,683.5 yuan/ton respectively, both with slight increases. Some spot prices and basis values changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 21, CCI metallurgical coal index data were released. As of now, the total coke inventory at two ports in Shandong increased by 700,000 tons week - on - week. Due to factors such as the slowdown in coal price increases and steel mill iron - water production cuts, the market sentiment weakened, and port coke prices declined [17]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Steam Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The prices at production areas, ports, overseas, and the January long - term agreement prices showed different degrees of change, with some prices declining [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, China's raw coal production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Coal imports in December 2025 far exceeded expectations. In 2026, Indonesia's expected coal production quota is expected to be tightened [22]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than that in November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [26]. - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a black metal daily report on ferroalloys dated January 21, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF主力合约 closed at 5556, up 4 from the previous day and down 134 for the week, with a trading volume of 130,862 (down 17,653) and an open interest of 245,555 (down 1,555) [3] - SM主力合约 closed at 5786, down 12 from the previous day and down 134 for the week, with a trading volume of 135,360 (down 5,194) and an open interest of 332,292 (up 117,126) [3] Spot - For ferrosilicon, 72%FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5350, 5320, 5300, 5650, and 5780 respectively. The daily changes were 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, and the weekly changes were -100, -100, -50, -100, -70 [3] - For silicomanganese, the spot prices of 6517 in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5680, 5570, 5750, 5720, and 5650 respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, 0, -30, -30, and the weekly changes were -70, -60, -100, -100, -100 [3] Basis/Spread - For ferrosilicon, the basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract was -206, up 26 from the previous day and up 34 for the week; Ningxia - main contract was -236, down 4 from the previous day and up 34 for the week; Qinghai - main contract was -256, down 4 from the previous day and up 84 for the week; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia was 300, down 30 from the previous day and unchanged for the week; SF - SM spread was -230, up 16 from the previous day and unchanged for the week [3] - For silicomanganese, the basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract was -106, up 12 from the previous day and up 64 for the week; Ningxia - main contract was -216, up 12 from the previous day and up 74 for the week; Guangxi - main contract was -36, up 12 from the previous day and up 34 for the week; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia was 70, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 for the week [3] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump were 41.7, 36.2, and 42.8 respectively. The daily changes were -0.1, 0, -0.2, and the weekly changes were -0.3, -0.3, -0.7 [3] - For semi - coke small materials, the prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were 770, 840, and 750 respectively, with no daily or weekly changes [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - On January 21, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The SF main contract was 5556, up 0.07%, with an open interest decrease of 1555 lots; the SM main contract closed at 5748, down 0.21%, with an open interest decrease of 11,069 lots [6] - For ferrosilicon, the spot price on the 21st was stable with a slight upward trend, with some regional spot prices rising by 30 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the short - term operating rate decreased slightly, and with the technical transformation expectation brought by the differential electricity price in Shaanxi, there was still an expectation of supply decline in the future. On the demand side, an accidental accident in a steel mill in Inner Mongolia led to production cuts, but the impact on the national scope was limited. Recently, both the apparent demand and production of steel increased, and there was short - term support for raw material demand. On the cost side, the electricity price in the main production areas was stable with a slight downward trend recently, but there was an expectation of electricity price increase in some areas. The self - valuation level of ferrosilicon was not high, and it could be used as a long - position variety on dips [6] - For silicomanganese, on the 21st, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight downward trend. The prices of Australian lump and Gabon lump in Tianjin Port decreased by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/ton - degree, and the spot prices of silicomanganese in some areas decreased by 30 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but some new production capacities started to be put into operation, and the overall supply was stable. On the demand side, as mentioned in the ferrosilicon part, both the apparent demand and production of steel increased, and there was short - term support for raw material demand. On the cost side, the port inventory of manganese ore continued to decline, the port spot was slightly adjusted but generally firm, and the overseas mine quotes continued to rise. The valuation level of silicomanganese was not high, and the cost support was relatively strong. It could be used as a long - position variety on dips [6] Overall Strategy - Unilateral: The alloy valuation level is not high, and the cost support is relatively strong. It can be used as a long - position variety on dips [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7] Important Information - On the 21st, the quotes of semi - carbonate (Mn36.48%Fe5.47%), Australian lump (Mn41.6%), South African medium - iron lump (Mn42%Fe16%), Gabon lump (Mn47%), and CML Australian lump (Mn47%) in Tianjin Port were 36, 42, 39, 43.5, and 43.5 yuan/ton - degree respectively [8] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the overall fiscal expenditure will "only increase and not decrease", and the government debt ratio is still low; it will implement the loan interest subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes various charts such as the trend review of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the inter - month spreads of SF and SM, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the spot prices of silicomanganese, the electricity price of ferroalloys, the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [10][12][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No relevant information provided Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on January 21, 2026, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5250 yuan, with daily changes of 0 and -20 yuan respectively, and weekly changes of -70 and -100 yuan respectively. The latest price of the silicon ferroalloy export (in US dollars) in Tianjin 72 was 1045 US dollars, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 20 US dollars [1]. - For silicon manganese, on January 21, 2026, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5680, 5570, 5750, 5700, and 5700 yuan respectively, with different daily and weekly changes [1]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2022 - 2026 are presented, including monthly production and weekly production (with a capacity share of 95%). The capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 are also provided [3]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2022 - 2026 are presented, including weekly production, and the procurement prices and quantities of silicon manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2022 - 2026 are also provided [5]. Demand - The demand data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China from 2022 - 2026 are presented, including the estimated production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, and the demand for silicon manganese in China (according to the Steel Union's caliber) [3][6]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 are presented, including weekly inventory. The inventory - related data of silicon ferroalloy such as warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts from 2022 - 2026 are also provided [4]. - The inventory data of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China from 2022 - 2026 are presented, including weekly inventory. The inventory - related data of silicon manganese such as warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts from 2022 - 2026 are also provided [6]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2022 - 2026 are presented, including production costs, profits converted to the main contract, and spot profits. The export profit of 75 silicon ferroalloy from 2022 - 2026 is also provided [4]. - The profit data of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region from 2022 - 2026 are presented, including profits according to the Steel Union's caliber and the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 20, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5552, up 0.07% with an increase of 15,954 in open interest; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5760, down 0.83% with a decrease of 13,668 in open interest [5] - The valuation of ferroalloys is not high, and cost support is relatively strong. They can be considered as long - positions when the price is low. For arbitrage, it's recommended to wait and see, and for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: - SF main contract: closed at 5552, daily change of 4, weekly change of - 130, trading volume of 148,515 (daily increase of 33,826), open interest of 229,601 (daily increase of 15,954) - SM main contract: closed at 5798, daily change of - 10, weekly change of - 118, trading volume of 140,554 (daily increase of 17,264), open interest of 215,166 (daily decrease of 13,668) [3] - **Spot Market**: - Silicon - iron: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5320, down 50 daily and 130 weekly; in Ningxia at 5320, unchanged daily and down 100 weekly; in Qinghai at 5300, down 50 daily and 50 weekly etc. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5680, down 20 daily and 70 weekly; in Ningxia at 5570, down 30 daily and 80 weekly etc. [3] - **Basis/Spread**: - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 232, daily change of - 54, weekly change of 0 etc. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 118, daily change of - 10, weekly change of 48 etc. - SF - SM spread was - 246, daily change of 14, weekly change of - 12 [3] - **Raw Materials**: - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 41.8, unchanged daily and down 0.2 weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 36.2, down 0.1 daily, unchanged weekly etc. - Blue charcoal small materials: in Shaanxi it was 770, unchanged daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 840, unchanged daily and weekly; in Inner Mongolia it was 750, unchanged daily and weekly [3] 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: - **Silicon - iron**: On the 20th, the spot price was stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 50 yuan/ton drop. In the short - term, the operating rate decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of future supply decline due to differential electricity prices in Shaanxi. Although there was an accidental production cut at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, the impact on the national scope was limited. Recently, both the apparent demand and production of steel increased, providing short - term support for raw material demand. The electricity price in the main production areas was stable to weak recently, and the cooling of the commodity market sentiment dragged down silicon - iron, but its valuation is not high, so it can be a long - position when the price is low [5] - **Manganese - silicon**: On the 20th, the manganese ore spot was stable to weak, with the semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port dropping 0.1 yuan/ton degree, and the manganese - silicon spot in some regions dropping 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but some new production capacities were put into operation at the end of 2025, so the overall supply was stable. Similar to silicon - iron, the apparent demand and production of steel increased, providing short - term support for raw material demand. The manganese ore port inventory continued to decline, the port spot was slightly adjusted but generally firm, and overseas mine quotes continued to rise. The valuation of manganese - silicon is not high, and the cost support is strong, so it can also be a long - position when the price is low [5] - **Overall Strategy**: For single - side trading, ferroalloys can be long - positions when the price is low; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6] - **Important Information**: - On the 20th, the price of semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port (Mn37.19%Fe4.32%) was 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump (Mn47%) was 43.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump (Mn47%) was 43.5 yuan/ton degree, and Australian seed (Mn41.3%Fe 7.4%) was 38.5 yuan/ton degree [7] - In December 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 3.2742 million tons, a 21.53% increase from November and a 28.27% increase from December of the previous year [7] 3.3 Related Attachments - The content mainly includes various charts such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of SF and SM, basis of SF and SM, spot prices of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, electricity prices for ferroalloys, production costs and profits of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][10][12][14][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the production recovery of finished products is slowing down, the apparent consumption of rebar is rising, inventory is turning to destocking but may accumulate later, and the destocking of hot-rolled coils is accelerating but the increase in warehouse receipts is significant. The fundamentals are neutral, lacking drivers, and supported by the cost side, with limited downside space [3]. - For iron ore, the current dominant factor of its price is not its fundamentals but the macro - expectations. In the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation and slow resumption of production, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is a lack of support for the price to continue to rise. However, after the price drops, the selling pressure is released, and steel mills have the rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so the price also has support at the bottom. Overall, it shows a wide - range shock [22]. - For coking coal and coke, the accident at a factory in Inner Mongolia over the weekend may lead to a contraction in local steel supply, which can repair the profit of steel products on the disk and support steel prices. In the follow - up, the result of the incident should be concerned. If the incident leads to stricter supervision and production restrictions in local areas, the progress of hot metal resumption may slow down, exacerbating the short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal. In the long - term, the change in macro sentiment and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines after the Spring Festival should be focused on. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected recovery of domestic supply" and "weakening of macro sentiment", the long - term prices of coking coal and coke will face greater downward pressure [32]. - For ferroalloys, the ferroalloys are supported by the cost side at the bottom. In the short - term, after the correction, they may show a bottom - shock trend [47]. - For soda ash, the previous warming of commodity sentiment drove some low - valued varieties, and the disk price increased. The middle - stream of soda ash replenished inventory, but the elasticity was limited. From the perspective of fundamentals, as the new production capacity gradually releases production, the daily output of soda ash reaches a new high, and the surplus expectation is also intensifying. At present, the expectation that the long - term supply of soda ash will remain at a high level remains unchanged. The photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate inventory, and the number of kiln blockages begins to increase. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. In November, the export of soda ash was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continued to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle - streams restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - For glass, there are rumors that some production lines have the expectation of ignition, and the supply - demand expectation has deteriorated. Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, the actual demand and expectation are also weak. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, it is difficult to have a trend - based movement. On the supply side, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired and ignited before the Spring Festival, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. In addition, the policy disturbance to the supply cannot be excluded. At present, the high inventory of the middle - stream of glass needs to be digested, the terminal is in the off - season, and the spot pressure still exists [86]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3191 yuan/ton, down from 3215 yuan/ton on January 19; the closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3315 yuan/ton, down from 3344 yuan/ton on January 19 [4]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3329 yuan/ton, down from 3336 yuan/ton on January 19; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, down from 3280 yuan/ton on January 19 [9][11]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 89 yuan/ton, up from 75 yuan/ton on January 19; the 01 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was - 45 yuan/ton, up from - 64 yuan/ton on January 19 [9][11]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 - 05 rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, up from 75 yuan/ton on January 19; the 01 - 05 hot - rolled coil spread was 39 yuan/ton, down from 45 yuan/ton on January 19 [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of 01 contract was 757 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from January 19 and 73 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 794 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from January 19 and 32 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 basis was 48.5 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from January 19 and 84.5 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Fundamental Data**: - The daily average hot metal output on January 16, 2026, was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week and up 1.46 tons month - on - month [27]. - The 45 - port desilting volume on January 16, 2026, was 319.89 tons, down 3.38 tons week - on - week and up 6.44 tons month - on - month [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 162, down 1.5 from January 19; the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 111.5, down 28.5 from January 19 [34]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1620 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [37]. - **Profit**: The on - the - spot coking profit on January 20, 2026, was - 57 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from January 19 and 38 yuan from January 13 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 48 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from January 19; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [48]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 124, down 66 from January 19 [48]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan from January 19; the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from January 19 [49]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was 126, up 14 from January 19 [49]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1177 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from January 19, with a daily decline of 1.26% [62]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19; the light - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [62]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the Shahe heavy - soda basis was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [62]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was - 61, unchanged from January 19 [62]. Glass - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1056 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from January 19, with a daily decline of 1.31% [87]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 contract basis (Shahe) was - 234 yuan/ton, down 1234 yuan from January 19 [87]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was - 109, up 1 from January 19 [87]. - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: On January 16, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio of Shahe was 135, the sales - to - production ratio of Hubei was 90, the sales - to - production ratio of East China was 91, and the sales - to - production ratio of South China was 105 [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Directory Price - Silico - manganese: The closing price of the main contract, basis (in Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia), north - south price difference, and price differences between different grades and months are presented, along with prices of related raw materials like chemical coke and manganese ores [6]. - Ferrosilicon: Spot prices in different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc.), export prices, and basis and price differences between different contracts are shown [1]. - The market prices of ferrosilicon in different regions from 2022 - 2026 are presented, including Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, etc., as well as export and import average prices [2]. Supply - Ferrosilicon: The monthly and weekly production of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China, and the monthly capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are provided [4]. - Silico - manganese: The weekly production in China, procurement prices and quantities of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are presented [6]. Demand - Ferrosilicon: The demand is related to the production of products such as crude steel, stainless steel, and metal magnesium. The production forecasts and actual production of these products from 2022 - 2026 are provided [4]. - Silico - manganese: The demand in China (in ten thousand tons), export quantity, and its relationship with crude steel production are presented [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days in different regions are provided [5]. - Silico - manganese: The warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, inventory + effective inventory, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China are presented [7]. Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon: The production costs in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profits from converting to the main contract and spot profits are presented, along with the export profit of 75 - grade ferrosilicon [5]. - Silico - manganese: The profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions, and the profit from converting Guangxi silico - manganese to the main contract are presented [7].

2026 年 1 月 20 日 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | 期 货 | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2603 | 5548 | -22 | 114,689 | 229,601 | | | 硅 铁2605 | 5536 | -30 | 36,726 | 78,111 | | | 锰 硅2603 | 5808 | -20 | 123,290 | 228,834 | | | 锰 硅2605 | 5848 | -18 | 106,298 | 273,541 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅 铁:FeSi7 5-B:汇总价格:内 | 蒙 | 5270 | -50.0 | 元/吨 | | | 硅 锰:FeMn6 5S i1 7:内 | 蒙 | 57 ...