Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The utilization rate of domestic tire production capacity fluctuated slightly last week. Some large semi-steel tire enterprises had about one - week maintenance, dragging down the overall enterprise production capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, driving up the full - steel tire production capacity utilization rate. There is still a slight upward space for the production capacity utilization rate as the maintenance enterprises gradually resume work, but the overall order performance is average, and enterprises will continue to control production, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,450 - 12,900 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,720 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,600 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 1,000 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the main contracts of both types of rubber changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex and Vietnam 3L increased by 200 yuan/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers decreased by 15 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers decreased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of齐鲁石化's butadiene - styrene and cis - butadiene rubbers remained unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products changed, and the price of 20 - number rubber in Qingdao market decreased [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets, films, and cup rubber) decreased, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 increased, while that of STR20 decreased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased, while that of mixed rubber increased. The weekly opening rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires changed [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased. The monthly output of full - steel and semi - steel tires increased [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying decreased, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options decreased [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (August 17 - 23, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period, reducing the impact on rubber tapping. As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.50%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 2.12%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to decline, with the bonded warehouse accumulating inventory and the general trade warehouse continuing to reduce inventory. The arrival and warehousing of overseas goods increased, but the tire enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm decreased [2].

证券之星消息，8月21日橡胶板块较上一交易日下跌1.44%，科创新源领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3771.1，上涨0.13%。深证成指报收于11919.76，下跌0.06%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300320 | 海达股份 | 11.36 | 2.25% | 29.07万 | | 3.28亿 | | 301300 | 远翔新材 | 42.45 | 0.45% | 1.56万 | | 6631.52万 | | 605183 | 确成股份 | 21.83 | 0.32% | 4.26万 | | 9266.26万 | | 002442 | 龙星科技 | 6.54 | 0.15% | 7.74万 | | 5052.83万 | | 002753 | 永东股份 | 7.31 | 0.14% | 5.78万 | | 4223.70万 | | 002381 | 双箭股份 | 7.19 | 0.00% | 8.39万 | | 6041.51万 | ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Rubber Industry Data Daily - Date: August 21, 2025 - Author: Ye Haiwen from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of ITG Futures [2][5] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The rubber market shows a volatile performance. With the cooling of the commodity market sentiment, the rubber futures盘面 has declined. The market is approaching the September delivery, returning to the fundamental logic, and the previous "anti - involution" trading expectation has cooled, resulting in a bearish commodity sentiment. Rubber may follow a weak - volatile trend. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the arbitrage strategy of going long on RU2509 and short on RU2601 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Disk - **Domestic Futures**: RU主力 dropped from 15875 to 15675 (-200), NR主力 from 12690 to 12525 (-165), and BR主力 from 11840 to 11715 (-125) [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: Tocom RSS3 decreased from 318.1 yen/kg to 313.8 yen/kg (-4.3), while Sicom TF remained unchanged at 172.4 cents/kg [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: RU2601 - RU2509 decreased from 995 to 955 (-40), RU2605 - RU2601 increased from 85 to 105 (+20), NR主力 - 次主力 decreased from 60 to 50 (-10), and BR主力 - 次主力 remained at 10 [3]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - NR decreased from 3185 to 3150 (-35), RU - BR from 4035 to 3960 (-75), and NR - BR from 850 to 810 (-40) [3]. - **Inter - market Spreads**: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) increased from 56 to 58 (+2), and NR - Sicom TF ($) decreased from 43 to 21 (-22) [3]. 2. Raw Material Prices - **Thailand (THB/kg)**: The price of smoked sheet rubber decreased from 60.85 to 59.60 (-1.25), the price of latex remained at 54.70, and the price of cup lump decreased from 49.80 to 49.35 (-0.45) [3]. - **Hainan and Yunnan (CNY/ton)**: Hainan latex for concentrated latex increased from 14000 to 14400 (+400), Hainan latex for whole - milk remained at 13400, Yunnan latex for concentrated latex remained at 14500, and Yunnan rubber block for whole - milk decreased from 14200 to 14100 (-100) [3]. 3. Factory Costs and Profits - **Whole - milk Rubber Delivery Profits**: Hainan remained at 479, Yunnan remained at - 301, and Thailand decreased from 955 to 875 (-81) [3]. - **Concentrated Latex Production Profits**: Hainan decreased from 1000 to 640 (-360), Thailand smoked sheet rubber remained at 2779 [3]. - **Smoked Sheet and 20 - grade Rubber Gross Margins**: Thailand 20 - grade rubber remained at - 189, and domestic 9710 remained at 250 [3]. 4. Domestic Spot - **Light - colored Rubber**: Old whole - milk decreased from 14900 to 14750 (-150), Vietnam 3L from 14900 to 14850 (-50), Thai mixed from 14650 to 14530 (-120), and Malaysian mixed from 14600 to 14480 (-120) [3]. - **Dark - colored Rubber**: Thai standard decreased from 12916 to 12813 (-103), and domestic standard II from 13900 to 13850 (-50) [3]. - **Other Types**: Domestic 9710 decreased from 14250 to 14150 (-100), Shanghai: Huangchunfa bulk from 11750 to 11600 (-150), Shanghai: Hainan bulk from 11300 to 11200 (-100), synthetic rubber (cis - J BR9000) from 11750 to 11600 (-150), styrene - butadiene SBR1502 from 12350 to 12150 (-200), and styrene - butadiene SBR1712 from 11350 to 11200 (-150) [3]. 5. Overseas Spot - **Mixed Rubber**: Thai mixed CIF decreased from 1810 to 1795 (-15), Malaysian mixed CIF from 1800 to 1785 (-15) [3]. - **Standard Rubber**: Thai standard CIF decreased from 1810 to 1795 (-15), Malaysian standard CIF from 1800 to 1785 (-15), and Indian standard CIF from 1735 to 1720 (-15) [3]. 6. Futures - Spot Spreads - **RU Spreads**: RU - Thai mixed decreased from 230 to 190 (-40), RU - old whole - milk from - 20 to - 30 (-10), and RU - Vietnam 3L from - 20 to - 130 (-110) [3]. - **NR Spreads**: NR - Thai standard delivery profit decreased from - 451 to - 511 (-60), NR - Indian standard delivery profit from 88 to 64 (-24), and NR - Malaysian standard delivery profit from - 379 to - 439 (-60) [3]. 7. Spot Spreads - **Variety Spreads**: Thai standard - Thai mixed ($) decreased from 10 to 5 (-5), Vietnam 3L - Thai mixed increased from 250 to 320 (+70), domestic standard II - Thai mixed increased from - 750 to - 680 (+70), old whole - milk - Vietnam 3L decreased from 0 to - 100 (-100), and domestic 9710 - Thai mixed increased from - 400 to - 380 (+20) [3]. 8. Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index remained at 98.2790, the US dollar/Chinese yuan increased from 7.1359 to 7.1384 (+0.002), the US dollar/Japanese yen remained at 147.6755, and the US dollar/Thai baht remained at 32.5550 [3]. - **Interest Rates**: SHIBOR - overnight increased from 1.464 to 1.473 (+0.009), and SHIBOR - seven - day from 1.517 to 1.534 (+0.017) [3]. 9. Supply, Inventory, and Demand - **Supply**: In Thailand, the price of raw material latex is 54.7 THB/kg, and the price of cup lump is 49.35 THB/kg. In Yunnan, the price of latex for whole - milk is 14100 CNY/ton, and for concentrated latex is 14500 CNY/ton. In Hainan, the price of latex for whole - milk is 13400 CNY/ton, and for concentrated latex is 14400 CNY/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 17, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.75 million tons (0.6%). The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 80.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%, and the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 47.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. In the market, small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Attention should be paid to the short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. - The crude oil market has a complex situation. The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, but there are concerns about US summer demand and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak [3]. - The gold market is affected by macro - economic and geopolitical factors. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, but the strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Attention should be paid to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. - For chemical products, the cost of PTA is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term, but there is an expectation of demand improvement. Ethylene glycol has a good fundamental situation and fluctuates with the cost end. The fundamentals of PVC, PP, plastic, etc. have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [7][8][9][11][13]. - In the agricultural products market, the corn price is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand, but it rebounds in the short term. The peanut price is affected by the expected increase in planting area and is in a weak position in the short term. The cotton price is affected by domestic and foreign supply - demand situations and shows a weak shock [20][22][23]. - In the metal market, the copper market is affected by global and domestic factors, and attention should be paid to the direction choice after the convergence. The aluminum market is in a shock trend, and the alumina price is under pressure. The casting aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price to fluctuate, and the lithium carbonate price is affected by cost, supply, and demand and is dominated by sentiment in the short term [29][30][32][33][34]. - In the black market, the stainless - steel, rebar, and hot - rolled coil prices are in a weak shock in the short term due to factors such as cost support weakening and weak demand. The iron ore price may decline in the short term, and the coking coal and coke prices may also fluctuate downward [36][37][38][39][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. Small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Pay attention to short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. Crude Oil - The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar provides some support. However, there are concerns about US summer demand, and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak. WTI main contract should pay attention to the support near $62 - 63 per barrel [3]. Gold - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with an 86.1% probability, but strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Pay attention to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. Silver - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. Pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. Chemicals PTA - The cost is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term. The inventory days are decreasing, and the production capacity change is not significant. There is an expectation of demand improvement in the downstream. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 4800 yuan per ton [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The domestic supply turns loose after the restart of coal - to - ethylene glycol plants. The inventory has a slight increase, but imports may decrease. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. It fluctuates with the cost end [8]. PVC - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has increased. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [9][10]. PP - The production capacity utilization rate has a slight increase, and the output has increased. The downstream average start - up rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force and fluctuate with market sentiment [11][12]. Plastic - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly. The inventory has changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [13]. Soda Ash - The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The market is affected by many news, and it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Affected by environmental protection restrictions, it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [16]. Rubber - The rubber price is affected by supply and demand. The supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream demand is affected by trade barriers. Pay attention to the resonance market with other domestic varieties and the pressure above the main contract [18]. Methanol - The futures price has increased, the inventory has increased, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction. The cost provides some support, and the price fluctuates in a range [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - The US corn production exceeds expectations, and the domestic supply is abundant. The downstream demand is weak, but it rebounds in the short term due to the influence of other agricultural product sectors [20][21]. Peanut - The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase. The new peanuts are about to be listed, and the old - crop inventory is being consumed. The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by the strength of the oil category [22]. Cotton - The US Department of Agriculture's report is positive, but the domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, but there is a negative impact from the expected increase in import quotas. The price is in a weak shock [23]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, it is affected by trade policies and weather. Domestically, the supply pressure is prominent, but there is an expectation of supply shortage in the fourth quarter. The price may test the upper pressure level in the short term [24]. Soybean Oil - The import cost provides support, and the domestic supply pressure is large. The demand is driven by festivals. The price is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the lower support level [25][26]. Live Pigs - The supply will remain high in the short term, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price fluctuates weakly and may fluctuate in a range in the short term [27]. Eggs - The supply pressure is significant, and the egg - laying hen inventory is high. The short - term price is boosted by festival preparations, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The current futures price valuation is low [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - The copper market is affected by global and domestic factors. The global inventory transfer is coming to an end, and domestic policies boost market sentiment. Pay attention to the direction choice after the convergence of the price triangle [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased, and it may continue to fluctuate in the range of 20300 - 21000 yuan per ton [30][31]. Alumina - The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased. The main contract may be in a weak shock in the short term [32]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The cost provides support, the supply is in surplus, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory is at a relatively high level, and it follows the aluminum price to fluctuate [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The cost is strongly supported, the supply pressure has weakened, and the demand is resilient. The futures price has a flash - crash limit - down, and it may fill the previous gap in the short term [34]. Industrial Silicon - The supply has a slight increase, and the demand structure is differentiated. The fundamentals are under pressure and fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [35]. Polysilicon - The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The price is in a wide - range shock in the short term [36]. Black Stainless Steel - The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand in the off - season is not good. The price is in a weak shock in the short term [36]. Rebar - The "anti - involution" policy effect is reflected, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is in a high - level weak shock in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Similar to rebar, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has accumulated. The price changes from a single - side rise to a high - level shock [38]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract may decline in the short term [39][40]. Coal - For coking coal, the supply recovery is slow, and the demand has weakened marginally. For coke, the demand is supported by high - level iron - water production, but the inventory removal rate has slowed down. The prices of coking coal and coke may decline in the short term [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in US crude oil inventories supports the rebound of oil prices, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and oil prices are in a low - range oscillating rhythm. Geopolitical factors such as the Iran nuclear negotiation deadline and potential sanctions also affect the oil market [1]. - The consumption of marine fuel in Singapore increased in July, but the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are suppressed by sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market shows signs of stabilization. In the short term, the upward space of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to see a situation of increasing supply and demand in August, and the price will oscillate in a range due to the lack of obvious one - sided driving force [4]. - The polyester market shows signs of demand recovery. PX prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - The rubber market has firm raw materials, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The methanol market has a short - term low supply due to many domestic device overhauls, but the supply will gradually recover. The port inventory is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand. The cost side does not fluctuate significantly, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - The polyvinyl chloride market has high - level supply oscillations and gradually recovering demand. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. The EIA inventory report showed a decline in US crude oil and gasoline inventories but an increase in distillate inventories. As the deadline for Iran's nuclear negotiation and cooperation approaches, geopolitical risks exist. Indian companies have resumed purchasing Russian oil. The current destocking of US crude oil supports the price rebound, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and the price is in a low - range oscillating rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In July, Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 19 - month high. High - sulfur fuel oil demand increased significantly, and its market share is approaching 40%. In August, the supply of traditional fuel oil in Singapore is still abundant. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by reduced supply in September [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in September is expected to increase year - on - year and month - on - month. The social inventory rate decreased slightly, and the refinery inventory level increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the north is stable, while the demand in the east is expected to recover. The price will oscillate in a range in August [4]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures all rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined. A Malaysian MEG device has restarted. PX supply and demand are recovering, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber all fell. Rubber raw materials are firm, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions and international prices are given. Recently, there have been many domestic device overhauls, and the supply is at a short - term low. The supply will gradually recover, and the arrival volume is expected to remain high. The port inventory will increase in the short term, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are provided. The subsequent production volume will remain high, and the current downstream enterprise开工 is low. As the peak demand season approaches, the industry开工 rate is expected to increase, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China all decreased. The supply oscillates at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The basis and monthly spread are relatively high, and it is expected that the monthly spread will narrow, and the price will oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data on the basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their respective changes from August 19th to 20th [9]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate inventories increased. As of August 15th, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels, which was more than the market expectation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 419,000 barrels [12]. - JODI data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June dropped to a three - month low, with exports falling from 6.191 million barrels per day in May to 6.141 million barrels per day. However, the crude oil production in June was 9.752 million barrels per day, higher than that in May [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. from 2021 to 2025 are presented [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips are provided [32][34][38][41][44][45]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber are shown [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spreads, PP - LLDPE spreads, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spreads are presented [67][68][69][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided [72][76]. 4. Research Team Members - **Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director**: Zhong Meiyan, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, has won multiple "Excellent Analyst" awards and led the team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research [78]. - **Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst**: Du Bingqin, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University, has won multiple industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, a finance master, has won multiple awards and is engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, PTA, MEG, and other futures varieties [80]. - **Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with an engineering master's degree from China University of Petroleum (East China), is a mid - level economist and has years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [5][6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to keep raw material prices firm, providing cost - side support. However, prices will fall after the rain ends. Current supply pressure is small, but domestic supply is expected to increase at the end of August. Tire开工率 is divided, and attention should be paid to tire factories' stocking willingness before the peak demand season [5] - For BR, the overall supply is expected to increase next week. Tire开工率 is divided, and the weakening of semi - steel tire开工率 has a more obvious impact on BR, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [6] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,525 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,530 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import and Export - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - From January to July 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires from January to July was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] Sales - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including exports and new - energy models, an approximately 42% increase compared to 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] Production and Sales - In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% and 14.1%. Affected by seasonal factors, they decreased by 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month. The industry showed a mild recovery driven by factors such as the recovery of logistics demand, the scrapping of old commercial vehicles, and new - energy purchase subsidies [3] US Tire Imports - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. Passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 1，320,000; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On August 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 925 yuan/ton (+50), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,145 yuan/ton (-80), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,098 yuan/ton (+124.98), the NR basis was 288 yuan/ton (+62). The price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (-150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton (-120), the price of 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,795 US dollars/ton (-15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (-100), the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,230 yuan/ton (-120) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.60 Thai baht/kg (-1.25), the price of Thai latex was 54.70 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.35 Thai baht/kg (-0.45), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.45) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 62.62% (+2.56%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 69.11% (-0.60%) [4] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+7,504), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (-3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+4,234) [5] BR Spot and Spreads - On August 20, 2025, the BR basis was - 265 yuan/ton (-125), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,500 yuan/ton (-250), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (-150), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,201 yuan/ton (-203) [5] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis BR was 64.52% (-3.65%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,410 tons (+420), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,200 tons (-250) [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has support at the bottom, and short - long trading is recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is complex, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to rise, and tire operating rate is at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The basis is - 1075 with a spot price of 14,600, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventory has increased recently, while Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly [14][17]. - The import volume has rebounded [20]. - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, but tire production has reached a new high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. - The basis weakened on August 20 [35]. Fundamentals Data - Bullish factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Bearish factors are increasing supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6]. Basis - The basis on August 20 was - 1075 and it weakened on that day [4][35]. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) declined on August 20 [8]. Inventory - Exchange inventory has increased recently, and Qingdao area inventory has had small changes [14][17]. Import - The import volume has rebounded [20]. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production has reached a new high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish factors: high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Bearish factors: increasing supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: "Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR Contract Overview - On August 20, the closing price of the BR main contract was 11,715, a daily decrease of 125 and a weekly decrease of 35 [4] - The open interest of the main contract was 35,691, a daily decrease of 89 [4] - The trading volume of the main contract was 169,064, a daily increase of 67,123 and a weekly increase of 88,883 [4] - The number of warehouse receipts was 12,190, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly increase of 1,720 [4] - The long - short ratio was 14.64, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 2 [4] Group 3: BR Price and Basis - The Shandong market price was 11,600, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 200 [4] - The Chuanhua market price was 11,500, a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 200 [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,450, with no daily or weekly change [4] - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,725, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 10 [4] - The butadiene - styrene basis was 435, a daily decrease of 75 and a weekly decrease of 115 [4] - The 8 - 9 month spread was - 80, a daily decrease of 175 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - The 9 - 10 month spread was - 10, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5 [4] Group 4: BR Processing and Trade - The spot processing profit was - 76, a daily increase of 13 and a weekly decrease of 11 [4] - The on - screen processing profit was 39, a daily increase of 38 and a weekly increase of 154 [4] - The import profit was - 85,491, a daily decrease of 173 and a weekly decrease of 996 [4] - The export profit was - 330, a daily increase of 133 and a weekly increase of 172 [4] Group 5: BD Price and Profit - The Shandong market price of BD was 9,290, a daily decrease of 160 and a weekly decrease of 185 [4] - The Jiangsu market price of BD was 9,250, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price of BD was 9,400, with no daily or weekly change [4] - The CFR China price of BD was 1,080, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 10 [4] - The carbon four extraction profit of BD was not available for the latest data [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit of BD was 156, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - The import profit of BD was 338, a daily decrease of 102 and a weekly decrease of 230 [4] - The export profit of BD was - 943, a daily increase of 161 and a weekly increase of 345 [4] Group 6: Downstream Profit - The butadiene - styrene production profit was 938 [4] - The ABS production profit data was not available for the latest period [4] - The SBS (791 - H) production profit was 1,145, with no daily or weekly change [4] Group 7: Price Spreads - The RU - BR spread was - 20,016, a daily decrease of 111 and a weekly decrease of 9,259 [4] - The NR - BR spread was - 23,166, a daily decrease of 76 and a weekly decrease of 9,219 [4] - The Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 2,930, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 130 [4] - The 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 2,700, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 150, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 [4] - The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 950, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] - For PVC, the supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [13] - For polyethylene, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] - For polypropylene, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [19] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 1.01%, to $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.09, or 1.65%, to $67.04; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.00 yuan, or 0.21%, to 475.9 yuan [1] - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.01 million barrels to 420.68 million barrels, a 1.41% decrease; SPR increased by 0.22 million barrels to 403.43 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 223.57 million barrels, a 1.20% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 2.34 million barrels to 116.03 million barrels, a 2.06% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 43.30 million barrels, a 1.02% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract rose 33 yuan/ton to 2424 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 119 [4] - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices have risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production starts are increasing, leading to greater supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. The current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve in the peak season [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract fell 41 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 40 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production starts have turned from decreasing to increasing, and corporate profits are still low but expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the demand side is generally weak. The downside space is limited, and attention should be paid to long - position opportunities on dips [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8] - **Fundamentals**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders of semi - steel tires were weak. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 7 yuan to 5008 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4720 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 288 (- 37) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (+8) yuan/ton [10] - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate is 80.3%, an increase of 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, a decrease of 0.1%. Factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 327,000 tons, and social inventory increased by 35,000 tons to 812,000 tons. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high [10] Benzene Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening [12] - **Fundamentals**: The macro - market sentiment is good, and the cost side still provides support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has a large upward repair space. The supply side is increasing, and the port inventory is decreasing significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [12][13] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7275 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The inventory of traders is high, and the demand is in the off - season. There is a large capacity release plan in August. The price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7075 yuan/ton, unchanged [16] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The demand side is in the off - season. There is a 450,000 - ton planned capacity release in August. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 70 yuan to 6844 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 837 dollars, with a basis of 43 (- 51) yuan and an 11 - 1 spread of 58 (+10) yuan [18] - **Fundamentals**: The PX operating rate remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. However, due to the new PTA device put into operation, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The valuation has support at the bottom but is limited in the short - term upside. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [18][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 44 yuan to 4778 yuan, the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4690 yuan, and the basis was - 2 (+6) yuan [20] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA operating rate is 76.4%, an increase of 1.7%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The inventory decreased by 23,000 tons. The supply side may accumulate inventory due to new device production, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 53 yuan to 4477 yuan, the East China spot price rose 49 yuan to 4507 yuan, the basis was 90 (- 3) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 (- 10) yuan [21] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side operating rate is 66.4%, a decrease of 2%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The port inventory decreased by 6000 tons to 547,000 tons. The short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21]

Market Overview - The rubber sector increased by 0.77% on August 20, with Sanwei Equipment leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3766.21, up 1.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11926.74, up 0.89% [1] Key Stocks Performance - Sanwei Equipment (831834) closed at 15.61, up 4.14% with a trading volume of 49,600 shares and a transaction value of 75.40 million [1] - Heimao Co. (002068) closed at 11.93, up 3.29% with a trading volume of 316,500 shares and a transaction value of 372 million [1] - Tongcheng New Materials (603650) closed at 35.60, up 2.68% with a trading volume of 138,600 shares [1] - Fengmao Co. (301459) closed at 48.71, up 1.88% with a trading volume of 38,200 shares [1] - Haida Co. (300320) closed at 11.11, up 1.65% with a trading volume of 176,100 shares [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The rubber sector experienced a net outflow of 61.14 million from institutional funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 70.50 million [2] - Major stocks like Tongcheng New Materials and Heimao Co. had significant institutional net inflows of 39.03 million and 35.15 million respectively [3] - Retail investors showed a net inflow in stocks like Double Arrow Co. (002381) with 537.81 million, indicating strong retail interest despite overall outflows [3]