1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including futures, stocks, and bonds. It assesses the market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of different assets, offering trading strategies and outlooks based on current economic and industry conditions [2][3][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Low valuation and mine - end news drive the sentiment, but the short - term reality is weak and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 124000 [2] - **Styrene**: Supply - demand expectations are weak, and the rebound space is limited. The EB02 contract is expected to oscillate in the 6300 - 6700 range in the short term [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices fluctuate, and the futures rebound. Short - term trading can consider going long on the 2605 contract [4] - **Oils and Fats**: Due to the approaching Christmas holiday, they are expected to show an interval oscillation trend. Palm oil may rebound, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil have limited upward space [5] - **Silver**: Driven by funds during the holiday, it strengthens the upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips to increase the trading safety margin [7] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market rebounded, and the main contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. The current trend is expected to be interval oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [8][9][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: LPR remained unchanged, and the stock market was strong, suppressing the bond market. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation, and if participating in trading, enter and exit quickly and stop profit in time [12][13] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all rose. The market has a positive expectation for the future price of precious metals, and it is recommended to hold long positions unilaterally [15][16] 3.2.3 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The index is rising, and it is expected to show an oscillating upward pattern in the short term [18] 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, with the main contract reference range of 92500 - 95000 [23] - **Alumina**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2450 - 2650 yuan/ton [26] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 21800 - 22600 yuan/ton [29] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to continue to oscillate at a high - level interval, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton [32] - **Zinc**: The TC stops falling and stabilizes, and the price oscillates. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 22850 - 22950 [35] - **Tin**: The short - term fundamentals are still strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [40] - **Nickel**: The price is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 124000 [43] - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12300 - 13000 [46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 11.2 - 11.6 million [51] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [54] - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [56] 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: It is expected to maintain an interval oscillation, with the rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and the hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range [58] - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to maintain an interval oscillation, with the reference range of 730 - 820. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations on the 05 contract [61] - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract on dips [64] - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract on dips [67] - **Silicon Iron**: It is expected to oscillate in the 5400 - 5650 range [70] - **Manganese Silicon**: It is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to try shorting when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [73] 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to the performance of the main contract around 2750 [77] - **Pigs**: The spot price is stable, and the disk is expected to have support around 11000 [79] - **Corn**: The disk may maintain a weak pattern, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the selling sentiment and policy release [82] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic market is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bearish mindset [83] - **Cotton**: The US cotton is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic market's upward trend slows down. It is expected to oscillate in a strong - level interval [85] - **Eggs**: The supply is still loose, and it is expected to oscillate weakly this week [87] - **Oils and Fats**: They are expected to show an interval oscillation trend. Palm oil may rebound, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil have limited upward space [91] - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand expectation is bearish, and the price is running weakly. Attention should be paid to the market consumption [93] - **Apples**: The demand is weak, and the rebound height is limited. It is recommended to exit long positions opportunely [94] 3.3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: It is expected to continue a relatively strong trend in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and take a long - term low - buying approach [96] - **PTA**: It follows the raw material PX. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and take a long - term low - buying approach [99] - **Short - fiber**: It follows the raw material, and the supply - demand expectation is weak [100] - **Bottle - grade PET**: The domestic supply is expected to increase, and the processing fee will be compressed in the short term [102] - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [103] - **Pure Benzene**: It is expected to oscillate in the 5300 - 5600 range [105] - **Styrene**: It is expected to oscillate in the 6300 - 6700 range in the short term [107] - **LLDPE**: It is recommended to wait and see [108] - **PP**: Attention should be paid to the expansion of PDH profits [109] - **Methanol**: It is recommended to pay attention to the shrinkage of MTO05 [110] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to run weakly [112] - **PVC**: It is expected to maintain an interval arrangement and then weaken after a rebound [114] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to go short on rallies [116] - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see [117] - **Natural Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate in the 15000 - 15500 range, and it is recommended to wait and see [120] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure of BR2602 around 11200 - 11300 [122]

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may rebound further and attempt to return above 4,000 ringgit, potentially reaching 4,100 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures face resistance around 8,500 yuan [1]. - US interception of Venezuelan oil - tankers boosts soybean oil, but its industrial use may decline, with limited upside for CBOT soybean oil before Christmas. In China, the approaching Spring Festival备货 may support the domestic futures market [1]. - Some short - term bearish funds in rapeseed oil are closing positions before Christmas, causing a rebound. However, the overall sentiment is bearish, with limited upward potential and resistance at 9,000 yuan [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - Spot prices are stable, and demand for curing around the Winter Solstice has increased. The slaughter cycle is longer this year, with normal - to - fast slaughter progress and increased demand. The futures price is expected to be supported around 11,000 [3][4]. Meal and Grains - South American soybean harvest is expected to be high, which will put pressure on US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal market remains loose, with limited downside and no clear upward drivers. Attention should be paid to the performance around 2,750 [9]. Dates - Spot sales and cost support are weak. Futures prices are under pressure due to expectations of oversupply. If the Spring Festival consumption is strong, the futures price may rebound slightly; otherwise, it will remain under pressure [12]. Apples - Current sales in production areas are slow, and inventory reduction is slow. The market sentiment may improve during the festival. It is recommended to close long positions opportunistically [15][19]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short - term, the terminal inventory has slightly improved. The corn futures may remain weak, but the decline is limited. Attention should be paid to the selling sentiment and policy releases [22]. Cotton - Internationally, US cotton may fluctuate in the short - term. Domestically, supply pressure is easing, supporting cotton prices. Demand from downstream textile mills is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in a relatively strong range with limited upward momentum [25][26]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production is contracting, but Indian sugar production is abundant. The market lacks positive factors, and it is expected to remain weak and volatile next week. Short positions can be considered on rebounds [29]. Eggs - The supply - demand contradiction has been marginally alleviated, but the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern remains. The market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [31][32]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On December 19, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan, down 1.79% from the previous day. The futures price (Y2605) was 7,952 yuan, down 1.05%. The basis was 288 yuan, down 18.64% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,250 yuan on December 19, down 1.79%. The futures price (P2605) was 8,280 yuan, down 0.93%. The basis was - 30 yuan, down 171.43%. The import cost increased by 0.71%, and the import profit decreased by 31.59% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,270 yuan on December 19, down 2.42%. The futures price (OI605) was 8,929 yuan, down 2.33%. The basis was 341 yuan, down 4.75% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 305 yuan, down 28.24%. The price of Live Hogs 2605 was 11,905 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of Live Hogs 2603 was 11,345 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [3]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with an overall stable situation. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.19%, and the self - breeding and purchased - pig breeding profits increased [3][4]. Meal and Grains - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,100 yuan, unchanged. The futures price (M2605) was 2,741 yuan, up 0.22%. The basis was 359 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan, up 1.68%. The futures price (RM2605) was 2,337 yuan, up 0.60%. The basis was 83 yuan, up 45.61% [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main - contract of Soybean No.1 was 4,105 yuan, up 1.31%. The basis was - 165 yuan, down 47.32% [9]. Dates - **Futures**: The price of Jujube 2601 was 8,695 yuan/ton, down 0.74%. The price of Jujube 2605 (main - contract) was 8,820 yuan/ton, down 0.84%. The price of Jujube 2609 was 9,100 yuan/ton, down 1.14% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot prices of different grades in Cangzhou showed a downward or stable trend, with the basis of special - grade and first - grade dates strengthening [12]. Apples - **Futures**: The price of Apple 2605 (main - contract) was 9,149 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The basis was - 949 yuan, up 50 yuan [15]. - **Spot**: The arrival volume at some fruit markets was stable or slightly increased, and the national cold - storage inventory remained unchanged [15]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2603 was 2,192 yuan, unchanged. The Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port was 2,280 yuan, down 0.44%. The basis was 88 yuan, down 10.20% [22]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2603 was 2,484 yuan, down 0.32%. The spot prices in Changchun and Weifang were stable. The basis was 86 yuan, up 10.26% [22]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2605 was 14,070 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The price of Cotton 2601 was 14,130 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The ICE US cotton main - contract was 63.61 cents/pound, down 0.06% [25]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14,986 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The CC Index: 3128B was 15,154 yuan/ton, up 0.06% [25]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5,225 yuan/ton, up 0.93%. The price of Sugar 2605 was 2,126 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract was 15.00 cents/pound, up 1.01% [29]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5,270 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The spot price in Kunming was 5,195 yuan/ton, down 0.29% [29]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of Egg 01 contract was 3,049 yuan/500KG, down 0.91%. The price of Egg 02 contract was 2,888 yuan/500KG, up 0.07% [31]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 2.39%. The basis was - 75 yuan/500KG, down 49.14% [31].

Core Viewpoint - The recognition of geographical indication products in Shaanxi, totaling 158, is expected to enhance brand building for quality agricultural products and support regional economic development through improved legal frameworks and intellectual property services [1] Group 1: Geographical Indication Products - Shaanxi has been actively promoting geographical indications as a key strategy for county economic development and rural revitalization [1] - The province has implemented initiatives to extend the geographical indication industry chain and increase the added value of these products [1] - The recognition of 62 new geographical indication products by the National Intellectual Property Administration contributes to the overall total of 158 in Shaanxi [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The direct economic output from geographical indication products in Shaanxi is projected to exceed 400 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - High-quality agricultural products like Fuping Jianshi, Chang'an strawberries, and Liuba mushrooms are transforming from local specialties into significant income sources for the community [1] - The development model emphasizes "leading industry upgrades through branding and driving regional economic prosperity through industry" [1] Group 3: Promotional Activities - Events such as the 2025 Silk Road (Shaanxi) International Geographical Indication Product Trade Conference and "Geographical Indication Sanqin Tour" are organized to promote Shaanxi's brand stories [1] - These activities aim to enhance the visibility and reputation of geographical indication products [1]

Core Insights - The opening of the Guangzhan and Shantou South to Shantou sections of the high-speed rail marks a significant milestone in achieving a comprehensive high-speed rail network in Guangdong, facilitating the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages" initiative [1][2] - The "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages" initiative aims to address the imbalance in urban-rural development in Guangdong, which has historically resulted in economic disparities, particularly in the eastern, western, and northern regions [1][3] Group 1 - The high-speed rail network enhances connectivity and supports the economic integration of Guangdong's regions, contributing to the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages" initiative [1][2] - The initiative has achieved preliminary results, exploring pathways for modern Chinese development and regional coordination [1][2] - Guangdong's economic growth strategy focuses on transforming its development shortfalls into potential strengths, emphasizing the need for effective market mechanisms and proactive government involvement [1][3] Group 2 - The "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages" initiative employs a tailored approach based on local resources, promoting differentiated development and leveraging regional advantages [2][3] - The initiative has led to the establishment of significant agricultural industry clusters, including eight trillion-level and seventeen hundred-billion-level sectors, enhancing the region's economic output [2] - The development of marine economies and modern marine ranching is prioritized, with the new high-speed rail facilitating the rapid distribution of quality seafood and tourism resources across the province [2][3] Group 3 - A policy collaboration network has been established to optimize resource allocation and enhance regional asset utilization, promoting orderly industrial transfers within the province [3] - The initiative's success relies on comprehensive reforms that empower local governance and resource activation, with over 100 reform measures implemented to date [3] - The "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages" initiative is at a critical juncture, aiming for significant changes over the next decade while addressing urban-rural disparities [3]

Group 1: Industrial Production and Construction - Industrial production continues to show weakness, with blast furnace operating rates and steel apparent consumption lower than the same period last year. For the week of December 14 to December 20, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.1% week-on-week and increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to -1.1%. Steel apparent consumption fell by 0.5% week-on-week and increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to -4.1% [1][13] - The steel social inventory continues to decline, down 3.7% week-on-week [1]. - In the construction sector, cement production and demand remain weak, with a decrease in inventory. The national grinding operating rate fell by 2.5% week-on-week and increased by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year to 2.4%. Cement shipment rates decreased by 1.7% week-on-week and fell by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.3% [25][29]. Group 2: Petrochemical and Consumption Chains - The petrochemical chain shows marginal improvement, while the consumption chain remains relatively weak. For the week of December 14 to December 20, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.6% week-on-week and increased by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to 0.9%. The PTA operating rate remained flat compared to the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3 percentage points to -8.4% [13][17]. - In the downstream consumption chain, the operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.2% week-on-week but decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -0.4%. The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires showed weak performance, decreasing by 0.2% week-on-week and falling by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to -7.7% [13]. Group 3: Real Estate and Transportation - The transaction volume in the real estate market continues to be low, with major cities experiencing weaker performance. For the week of December 14 to December 20, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 15.4% week-on-week and increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -28.5% [49]. - The cargo throughput at ports has decreased, but remains higher than the same period last year. For the week of December 8 to December 14, railway cargo volume and highway truck traffic both saw a decline, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to -2.1% and down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to -2.1%, respectively [61][68]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and vegetable prices declining by 0.3% week-on-week, while fruit and egg prices increased by 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively [103]. - The industrial product price index has seen a decline, with the Nanhua industrial product price index decreasing [116].

公告称，只要俄乌冲突持续，欧盟将维持所有针对俄罗斯的制裁措施，如有必要还可能追加制裁。 2014年7月，欧盟以"破坏乌克兰东部稳定"为由，开始对俄罗斯实施经济制裁。2022年2月，俄罗斯对乌 克兰发起特别军事行动，其后欧盟持续加大对俄罗斯的制裁力度。 22日的公告显示，2022年2月至今，欧盟已对俄罗斯实施17轮制裁，覆盖贸易、金融、能源、技术和军 民两用物项、工业、运输、奢侈品等领域，禁止进口或转运俄罗斯海运原油和部分石油产品，对俄罗斯 多家银行和媒体施加限制，同时出台措施打击规避这些制裁的行为。 针对欧盟经济制裁，俄罗斯采取了限制进口欧盟农产品等反制措施，并多次强调俄罗斯经济并未"分崩 离析"，使俄罗斯"遭受战略性失败"的目标没有得逞，斥责欧盟制裁俄罗斯是"在域外实施非法限制、政 治敲诈、新殖民主义行径"。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 欧盟理事会当日在一份公告中通报，欧盟理事会决定将针对俄罗斯的经济制裁再延长6个月，至2026年7 月31日为止。 欧盟延长对俄罗斯经济制裁 中新网布鲁塞尔12月22日电 (记者 德永健)欧盟22日以俄乌冲突为由，延长对俄罗斯的经济制裁。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the revitalization of traditional culture through the promotion of Puning's intangible cultural heritage, particularly the Yingge dance, at a civil market event in Guangzhou [2][3][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - The first civil market event based on civil practice was held in Guangzhou's Beijing Road business district from December 19 to 28, showcasing Puning's cultural resources [2]. - The event featured intangible cultural heritage products, specialty agricultural products, and folk IPs, focusing on the theme of "revitalizing intangible cultural heritage" [3][4]. Group 2: Cultural Significance - Yingge dance, a symbol of Chaoshan culture, has a history of over 300 years and represents cultural values of auspiciousness and peace [5][6]. - The performance by the Nanshan Yingge team and the Fumei Youth Yingge team at the 2025 Spring Festival Gala is expected to showcase the vigor and spirit of Chinese youth [6][7]. Group 3: Product Innovation - Puning introduced a series of Yingge dance blind box cultural products that blend traditional dance elements with modern aesthetics, appealing to younger consumers and becoming popular among visitors [8][9]. - The exhibition also featured innovative expressions of intangible cultural heritage cuisine, such as the Xishe candy shop's diverse product offerings that incorporate local cultural symbols into packaging [11][13]. Group 4: Agricultural Highlights - The event showcased specialty agricultural products from Nankai Water Town, including "Dalong Huai Mountain," which achieved a yield of 3,000 pounds per acre and a net output value of approximately 2 million yuan in 2023 [18][20]. - Other featured products included tender bamboo shoots and various dried goods, which gained popularity due to their ecological quality [19][20].

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - In the third week of December, the real - estate transaction heat slightly recovered, but the overall situation of new and second - hand houses was weak, and the year - on - year readings were weaker than before due to the high base effect. House prices needed improvement, and land transaction indicators remained at a low level [3]. - In terms of production, the resilience of freight volume declined in the industrial sector, most production start - up rates were weak, the refinery start - up rate recovered, while coking, blast furnace, and automobile production were marginally weak. In the construction industry, the supply and demand of cement and black products were weak, inventory decreased slightly, and the asphalt start - up rate fluctuated at a low level [3]. - For external demand, the throughput decreased year - on - year but remained at a high level, and freight rate indicators were slightly differentiated. Comprehensive indices such as BDI and RJ/CRB were strong but marginally declined, while CCFI and SCFI indices increased [3]. - In the consumption sector, the travel heat slightly declined, and the year - on - year performance of automobile consumption was weak [3]. - Regarding prices, pork prices were weak under supply pressure, overseas interest - rate cut expectations and production - end disturbances affected crude oil and copper prices, and black - series prices recovered [3]. Group 2: Consumption - Travel heat decreased overall, with year - on - year declines in subway travel, congestion delay index, and domestic and international flights compared to the previous values [4]. - Automobile consumption was weak year - on - year, and the express delivery collection level decreased [4]. Group 3: Real Estate - The real - estate transaction heat slightly increased, with new - house transaction heat slightly recovering, and third - tier cities leading in structure; second - hand house transaction heat also slightly recovered, but with differentiated performance in high - level cities [5][10]. - The listed quantity and price of second - hand houses both decreased [11]. - The land - market premium rate remained at a low level, and land transaction volume increased seasonally [11]. - Last week, real - estate policies continued to exert force on both the supply and demand sides [12]. Group 4: Production - Railway and highway freight volume decreased, and industry start - up rates were differentiated. The start - up rates of coking and refineries increased year - on - year, while those of PTA, polyester, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms were weak, and the start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires slightly decreased [17]. - Coal consumption decreased year - on - year, hydropower generation weakened, and coal prices increased month - on - month [13]. Group 5: Construction - Construction funds decreased month - on - month, and the supply and demand of cement and black products were weak. Cement and black - series inventories decreased slightly, and prices increased [14][15]. - The asphalt start - up rate decreased month - on - month, and prices increased slightly. The start - up rates of PVC and styrene were marginally differentiated [16]. Group 6: External Demand - Port cargo throughput and container throughput maintained resilience, and freight rates were differentiated. RJ/CRB and BDI decreased year - on - year, while CCFI and SCFI increased [5][18]. - South Korea's and Vietnam's exports maintained resilience [5]. - The US employment data was generally weak, and the euro - zone price pressure eased [5][19]. - The domestic import freight rate (CDFI) decreased month - on - month [19]. Group 7: Prices - The comprehensive indices of RJ/CRB and South China Industrial Products Index decreased. Pork and vegetable prices decreased, while black - series prices increased, and the prices of crude oil and copper were affected by various factors [6][20][21]. - Crude oil prices decreased due to supply - side factors such as expected record - high US production and sufficient Middle - East supply, and the weakening of geopolitical premiums [21]. - Black - series prices increased. Coke supply was tightened by environmental protection policies, and the supply - demand expectation of rebar slightly improved [22]. - Copper prices remained flat, supported by the supply - demand pattern but affected by different factors such as interest - rate cut expectations [22].

Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: December 22, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 3.04%, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12%. The liquidity environment is generally favorable, and the commodity market may run stably in the short - term [2][6]. - The dovish interest rate hike in Japan supported the US dollar index, but after the release of US economic and inflation data last week, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, and short - term US dollar liquidity may remain stable. In China, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment and social retail sales slowed down in November, and economic growth continued to slow down moderately [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. The precious metals sector may be volatile and bullish; the non - ferrous metals sector may run stably; the black sector may fluctuate; the energy sector may fluctuate; the chemical sector's rebound space may be limited; and the agricultural products (oilseeds) sector may fluctuate [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week. The black, precious metals, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous sectors rose by 3.04%, 1.9%, 0.91%, and 0.79% respectively, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12% [2][6]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were coking coal (9%), coke (8.31%), and PTA (4.45%); the top - losing varieties were rapeseed oil (- 6.45%), soybean oil (- 3.53%), and apples (- 3.36%) [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with only the agricultural product and precious metals sectors showing mainly declining volatility [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale decreased slightly last week, and the non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and black sectors all had net capital outflows [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data last week showed an economic cooling trend, and the November CPI data decline exceeded expectations. The core CPI reached a new low since March 2021. Fed Chair candidates Hasset and Waller believe there is still room for interest rate cuts. The sector may be volatile and bullish in the short - term [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Overseas economic data is weak, interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar index is under pressure, with the macro environment generally positive. The inventory continued to decline last week, but the decline rate narrowed, and the spot premium was mainly weakening. However, there is still a risk of smelting contraction. The sector may run stably in the short - term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, the decline in hot metal production is still large, but steel mill profits are showing marginal improvement, and the production - cut trend may slow down. For raw materials, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume rebounded; the total coking coal inventory increased slightly. After the oversold rebound, the market sentiment has become cautious, and the sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: The Berlin negotiation between the US and Ukraine last week was very positive, leading to market concerns that an agreement may increase the supply pressure of Russian oil. EIA data showed that although crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline and distillate oil inventories increased unexpectedly. The supply - loose pattern always puts pressure on oil prices. However, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical issue may bring phased risk premiums. Oil prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester varieties, the expectation of tight supply led to a significant increase in PX positions and price. Stimulated by raw material price increases, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices, and polyester filament inventory decreased. The short - term polyester start - up rate will be maintained, but it is expected to decline later due to mid - line inventory accumulation and the Spring Festival factor. The short - term cost support is strong, but the rebound space may be limited under the background of a downward demand period [4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Recently, the weather in South America has continued to improve, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter of next year is 68%. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean futures price has fallen back to the previous bottom range, and soybean meal may follow the adjustment in the short - term. The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, and the weak rapeseed oil has also led to the weakening of soybean and palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil market still faces high inventory pressure. Although the production decreased month - on - month in November, the decline was small, and the demand was even worse. The oilseeds sector may fluctuate in the short - term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with the total return of gold ETFs at 0.07%. The returns of individual gold ETFs such as Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF and Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF were 1.16% and 0.98% respectively [38]. - The energy - chemical ETF (Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF) had a return of 2.71% [38]. - The soybean meal ETF (Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return of - 1.32% [38]. - The non - ferrous ETF (Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metals Futures ETF) had a return of - 0.66% [38]. - The silver fund (Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return of 3.47% [38]. - The total return of commodity ETFs was 0.24% [38].

Core Insights - The European Union's agricultural trade surplus significantly increased to €6.4 billion in October 2025, marking an 18% month-on-month growth and reaching the highest monthly surplus level in over a year, which is also 19% higher compared to the same month last year [1] Summary by Category Trade Performance - The agricultural trade surplus of the EU reached €6.4 billion in October 2025 [1] - This figure represents an 18% increase from the previous month [1] - The surplus is 19% higher than the same month in the previous year [1]