1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure in the near - term remains high based on sow production capacity and the number of newborn piglets. Although the slaughter volume has rebounded from the holiday low, consumption has entered the traditional off - season with the temperature rising, and it is difficult to return to the pre - holiday high. The short - term spot price of live pigs has stopped falling and stabilized due to farmers' price - holding and increased inquiries for secondary fattening, but the overall price is in a weak and volatile state with a loose supply - demand pattern. The main 2605 contract on the futures market closed down 0.18% with a narrowing decline, testing the support at the 11,000 mark. Attention should be paid to secondary fattening and slaughter conditions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 11,140 yuan/ton, with a 10 - unit change. The main contract position was 168,227 lots, a decrease of 1,382 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 1,150 lots with no change. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 49,010 lots, a decrease of 544 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian was 10,700 yuan/ton with no change, in Jilin Siping was 9,800 yuan/ton with no change, and in Guangdong Yunfu was 11,200 yuan/ton with no change. The main live pig basis was - 440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory was 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads. The national breeding sow inventory was 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI was 0.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The corn spot price was 2,413.73 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.59 yuan/ton. The Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 946.75, an increase of 2.68. The monthly feed output was 30,086,000 tons, an increase of 307,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows was 1,429 yuan/head with no change. The breeding profit for purchased piglets was 20.83 yuan/head, a decrease of 32.27 yuan/head. The breeding profit for self - bred and self - raised live pigs was - 159.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.33 yuan/head. The monthly pork import volume was 60,000 tons with no change. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.8 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 4,4040,000 heads, a decrease of 4870,000 heads. The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales was 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises from Shanghai Ganglian, on March 5, 2026, the daily live pig出栏量 of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 297,746 heads, an increase of 5.41% compared with the previous day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo oscillatory adjustments and maintain a range - bound operation, with attention focused on the range of 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. The upstream zinc mine imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters face increased competition in purchasing domestic ores, and both domestic and foreign processing fees have dropped significantly, squeezing domestic smelter profits and limiting future production. The export window may close again. The downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening, though there are some bright spots in the automotive sector. The downstream mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, and recent zinc price drops have not spurred strong purchasing. Domestic social inventories have increased significantly, while LME zinc inventories have decreased slightly, and spot premiums remain low. Technically, the position has decreased, price adjustment occurs, and trading between long and short positions has become less active [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,520 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 04 - 05 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,319 US dollars/ton, up 46.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 184,234 lots, down 2,720 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4,196 lots, up 851 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 126,052 tons, up 39,027 tons; the LME inventory is 95,250 tons, down 125 tons [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,710 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,870 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 190 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 16.64 US dollars/ton, up 2.57 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,120 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons. The social zinc inventory is 2.117 million tons, up 315,000 tons. The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, down 60,000 tons [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 22.39%, down 1.47 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 22.38%, down 1.51 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 39.28%, down 4.45 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 20.46%, down 0.04 percentage points [3]. 3.7. Industry News - The government work report shows that China's new - quality productivity has developed steadily, with achievements in various high - tech fields. The 14th National People's Congress Fourth Session held a press conference on March 4, with information about the "15th Five - Year Plan" and policies on expanding domestic demand, consumption promotion, and support for the private economy. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned tariff rate changes, and the US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000. China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0% (down 0.3 percentage points), non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5% (up 0.1 percentage points), and the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5% (down 0.3 percentage points). China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in February was 52.1, service PMI was 56.7, and the comprehensive PMI was 55.4 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market risk sentiment has emerged, and the demand for gold investment may weaken slightly. The gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile pattern in the near term, but the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The Au2604 contract may fluctuate between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram [8] - Silver is experiencing a price decline along with gold. Its price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern with high volatility. The Ag2604 contract may fluctuate between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 22,500 yuan/kilogram [9] - For arbitrage, short the gold - silver ratio at high levels; for options, hold off [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer, and the US will control the rhythm and intensity of the operation. NATO intercepting Iranian missiles will not trigger the collective defense clause. Iran denies seeking negotiations with the US, and the election of the supreme leader may be postponed to next week. China will send a special envoy to the Middle East for mediation. The US tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court vetoed Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the 15% global tariff rate may be adopted this week. The US DFC will provide insurance for oil tankers and cargo ships in the Persian Gulf [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 4, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,163.20 yuan/gram and closed at 1,153.06 yuan/gram, a change of - 2.45% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 1,144.20 yuan/gram, a 0.77% decline from the afternoon close [2] - On March 4, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 21,300.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,854.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.97% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 526,514 lots, and the open interest was 150,089 lots. The night - session closed at 21,546 yuan/kilogram, a 1.41% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 4, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.096%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury was 0.555%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long position decreased by 8,940 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position increased by 847 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 586,170 lots, a 7.58% change from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position decreased by 7,345 lots, and the short position decreased by 7,675 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,433,023 lots, a - 24.98% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,101.33 tons, an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,981 tons, an increase of 79 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 4, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was 52.35 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was 923.69 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 52.76, a - 3.38% change from the previous trading day. The foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 64.78, a 13.72% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On March 4, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 93,672 kilograms, a 15.48% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 546,706 kilograms, an 8.45% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran has become the core driver of the container shipping European line market. The risk of passage through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up the industry's risk premium. The futures market has risen significantly due to emotional factors [5]. - The spot market shows a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality". Although supported by increased detour costs and rising insurance premiums, it is currently in the traditional off - season, with weak demand and excess capacity pressure. The actual freight rates have not increased significantly in sync, and shipping companies' pricing strategies are divided [5]. - In the short term, the market is dominated by geopolitical sentiment. In the long - term, the progress of the conflict needs to be monitored. If the situation eases, prices will return to the supply - demand fundamentals after the risk premium fades. If the conflict persists, the shipping capacity structure may be continuously affected [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **China Export Container Freight Rates**: The current values and changes of various container freight rate indices are presented. For example, the SCFI - US West index has a current value of 1333, a previous value of 1251, and a growth rate of 6.52%; the SCFI - US East index has a current value of 1857, a previous value of 1787, and a growth rate of 3.92%; the SCFI - Northwest Europe index has a current value of 2691, a previous value of 2524, and a growth rate of 6.62%. However, the SCFI - Mediterranean index has a current value of 1463, a previous value of 1572, and a decline rate of 0.95% [1]. Market News - Israel carried out air strikes on multiple targets in Iran. Iran launched ballistic missiles at all Gulf countries except Oman. The Houthi armed forces will resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea corridor [3]. Market Condition - The main contract of the market hit the daily limit [4]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and there were uncertainties in foreign capital inflows due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global geopolitical uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% increase both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the monthly PPI rose 0.40% month - on - month and decreased 1.40% year - on - year [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan (+1.58%); M2 year - on - year growth was 9.00%, up 0.50% (+5.88%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.30% (-0.61%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US Dollar Index was 98.80, down 0.26 (-0.26%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.8934, down 0.032 (-0.47%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, down 0.03 (-2.28%); DR007 was 1.42, down 0.03 (-2.25%); R007 was 1.56, down 0.12 (-6.95%); the 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.53, down 0.01 (-0.49%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09 [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report presents multiple charts including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the trend of the settled funds of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio (top 20) of each treasury bond futures variety, and the long - short position ratio (top 20) of each treasury bond futures variety [13][14][16]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report shows charts such as the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance situation of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance situation of local government bonds [26][27][24]. IV. Spread Overview The report includes charts on the inter - delivery spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - product spreads of futures [33][35][37]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [45][47]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][56]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes charts on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [57]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [62][66]. 4. Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: As the repurchase rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

金融研究 2026年3月5日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 国债期货 -0.015，IRR1.47%；10 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250025.IB，收益率变动-1.3bps，对应净基差-0.031， IRR1.53%；30 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 210014.IB，收益率变动+0.5bps，对应净基差 0.154，IRR0.98%。 资金面：公开市场操作方面，央行货币投放 405 亿元，货币回笼 4,095 亿元，净回笼 3,690 亿元。 交易策略：短线走势不明朗，建议观望；中长线，风偏上行叠加经济复苏预期，建议 T、TL 逢高套保。 风险提示：货币政策宽松超预期，经济复苏不及预期。 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 金融研究 股指期货 市场表现：3 月 4 日，A 股四大股指有所下跌，其中上证指数下跌 0.98%，报收 4082.47 点；深成指 下跌 0.75%，报收 13917.75 点；创业板指下跌 1.41%，报收 3164.37 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.49%， 报收 1381.56 点。市场成交 23,879 亿元，较前日减少 7,696 亿元。行业板块方面，国防军工(+ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View - The report presents the trading data of various market sectors on March 4, 2026, including trading volume, position amount, and trading - position ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on the trading volume, position amount, and trading - position ratio of multiple market sectors, including the stock index, treasury bonds, basic metals, precious metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, and black building materials, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 3.2 Stock Index Plate - On March 4, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 983.33 billion yuan, a - 19.34% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 1625.96 billion yuan, a - 3.72% change; the trading - position ratio was 59.51% [1] 3.3 Treasury Bond Plate - On March 4, 2026, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 295.46 billion yuan, a + 16.42% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 879.87 billion yuan, a + 2.30% change; the trading - position ratio was 31.93% [1] 3.4 Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On March 4, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metals plate was 766.48 billion yuan, a - 16.56% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 662.41 billion yuan, a - 1.98% change; the trading - position ratio was 118.56%. The trading volume of the precious metals plate was 1126.24 billion yuan, a - 13.32% change; the position amount was 488.25 billion yuan, a - 7.25% change; the trading - position ratio was 255.45% [1] 3.5 Energy and Chemicals Plate - On March 4, 2026, the trading volume of the energy and chemicals plate was 1484.29 billion yuan, a + 29.18% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 539.44 billion yuan, a - 0.60% change; the trading - position ratio was 251.64% [1] 3.6 Agricultural Products Plate - On March 4, 2026, the trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 301.85 billion yuan, a - 16.85% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 641.24 billion yuan, a + 0.52% change; the trading - position ratio was 42.43% [1] 3.7 Black Building Materials Plate - On March 4, 2026, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 187.60 billion yuan, a - 12.43% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 332.10 billion yuan, a - 0.11% change; the trading - position ratio was 52.09% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the influence of Middle - East geopolitical factors, the Asia - Pacific stock markets declined further yesterday, with the South Korean Composite Index circuit - breaking and the Nikkei 225 Index falling over 3%. The stock index was weak due to market sentiment and liquidity. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the emotional resonance of the Asia - Pacific stock markets, especially South Korea's rescue strategies, and the evolution of the Middle - East conflict. If the geopolitical situation eases, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring a good long - position layout opportunity. Referring to the incident in 2025, the market sentiment recovered quickly after a brief shock adjustment, and the stock index broke upward [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate and Bond Market - DROO1 closed at 1.27 with a 0.16bp increase; DR007 closed at 1.42 with a 3.26bp decrease; GC001 closed at 1.22 with a 4.50bp increase; GC007 closed at 1.47 with a 1.00bp decrease; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with a 0.45bp decrease; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.29 with a 1.23bp decrease; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.53 with a 1.02bp decrease; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.78 with a 0.18bp decrease; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.06 with a 1.00bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted a 405 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 4095 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal of funds on the day was 3690 billion yuan [4] - This week (March 1st - 6th), 15250 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on March 6th [5] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4603 with a 1.14% decrease; the SSE 50 closed at 2974 with a 1.33% decrease; the CSI 500 closed at 8249 with a 0.39% decrease; the CSI 1000 closed at 8095 with a 0.59% decrease. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 23882 billion yuan, a decrease of 7698 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down. Grid equipment, national defense and military industry, power equipment, and small metal sectors led the gains, while shipping ports, precious metals, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, liquor, and logistics sectors led the losses [6] - The trading volume of IF decreased by 16.0% to 139926, and the open interest increased by 0.3% to 288752; the trading volume of IH decreased by 10.0% to 71090, and the open interest increased by 0.5% to 115104; the trading volume of IC decreased by 22.3% to 203068, and the open interest decreased by 6.7% to 309828; the trading volume of IM decreased by 16.4% to 245473, and the open interest decreased by 1.8% to 394667 [6] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.76%, 4.01%, 4.64%, and 5.10% respectively; IH were 1.54%, 1.12%, 1.26%, and 2.90% respectively; IC were 8.17%, 5.71%, 7.16%, and 7.32% respectively; IM were 8.54%, 7.80%, 9.25%, and 9.31% respectively [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 4, all the current-month contracts of the four major index futures declined. IF dropped by 1.16%, IH by 1.33%, IC by 0.61%, and IM by 0.9% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 26,703 lots, IH by 7,883 lots, IC by 58,264 lots, and IM by 48,216 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 825 lots, IH by 562 lots, while IC decreased by 22,275 lots and IM by 7,240 lots [2] - A-shares adjusted with reduced volume. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.98% at 4,082.47 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.75%, the ChiNext Index dropped 1.41%, and the Wind All A Index declined 0.69%. The market's total trading volume was 2.39 trillion yuan, compared with 3.16 trillion yuan the previous day. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 2.01% at 25,249.48 points, falling for three consecutive days [9] - Strong data reignited risk appetite. Technology stocks led the rebound of US stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 1.3%. US Treasury bonds fell for three consecutive days, and cryptocurrencies soared. The US dollar index dropped 0.26%, Bitcoin rose 7.8% and broke through the $73,000 mark, and Ethereum once skyrocketed 11.7%. Precious metals rebounded slightly, with spot gold rising 1.0% and spot silver rising 1.78% after a spike and fall. WTI crude oil rose 1.6%, and Brent crude oil rose 0.7% [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data - **IF**: The closing price of IF2603 was 4,591, down 1.16% with a basis of -11.62, trading volume of 88,154 lots (down 18,914 lots), and positions of 140,207 lots (down 5,696 lots). The total trading volume decreased by 26,703 lots, and the total positions increased by 825 lots [1][2] - **IH**: The closing price of IH2603 was 2,972.2, down 1.33% with a basis of -2.01, trading volume of 44,988 lots (down 7,269 lots), and positions of 60,625 lots (down 1,496 lots). The total trading volume decreased by 7,883 lots, and the total positions increased by 562 lots [1][2] - **IC**: The closing price of IC2603 was 8,219.4, down 0.61% with a basis of -29.55, trading volume of 121,611 lots (down 28,621 lots), and positions of 134,589 lots (down 13,868 lots). The total trading volume decreased by 58,264 lots, and the total positions decreased by 22,275 lots [1][2] - **IM**: The closing price of IM2603 was 8,064.2, down 0.90% with a basis of -30.32, trading volume of 155,033 lots (down 24,945 lots), and positions of 179,738 lots (down 6,114 lots). The total trading volume decreased by 48,216 lots, and the total positions decreased by 7,240 lots [1][2] 3.2 Index Futures Basis - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM at different time points (monthly, quarterly) from January 29, 2026, to March 4, 2026, are presented in graphical form [4] 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, including the increase or decrease in long and short positions and the net changes [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6] 3.5 Important Drivers - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5th to March 12th, with an 8 - day session and 3 plenary meetings. The agenda includes reviewing the government work report, the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, etc. There will be 3 press conferences and 3 "Representative Channels" and 3 "Minister Channels" [7] - The first press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress was held. The spokesperson Lou Qinjian stated that the 15th Five - Year Plan draft will be reviewed and approved, and this year will adhere to the strategic base point of expanding domestic demand, boost consumption, and formulate laws such as the Nursery Service Law. The basic policies of the Party and the state to promote the development of the private economy will not change, and the central government will introduce more policies to benefit Hong Kong [7] - The State Council Information Office will hold a briefing at 11:30 am on March 5th to interpret the "Government Work Report" [8] - Affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease. China's S&P manufacturing PMI in February was 52.1, higher than the expected 50.2 and the previous value of 50.3; the service PMI was 56.7, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.3; the composite PMI was 55.4, higher than the previous value of 51.6 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Middle - East geopolitical conflict is a core black - swan event affecting the global market. Although it doesn't change the long - term market trend under controllable circumstances, it strengthens the trading priority of long - cycle geopolitical game narratives. The implementation of the 15% global import tariff is a core confirmation of the continuation of the long - cycle geopolitical narrative. The impact on the market depends on the degree and duration of the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, and extreme risks need to be vigilant [1][2]. - For different commodities, the market is mainly influenced by factors such as the Middle - East situation, supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations. For example, the prices of some commodities are supported by cost increases due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are affected by supply shortages or demand changes [2][3][5] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures - **Macro**: Continue to focus on the Middle - East situation and the Two Sessions. The Fed has different views on interest rate cuts. The US economy is expected to grow slightly to moderately. The US - Iran conflict may last for a long time, and the 2 - month Chinese manufacturing PMI is 49%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB appreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index was suppressed by Trump's remarks and Iran - US negotiation news. Short - term export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at 6.82 [3][4] - **Stock Index**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the stock index continued to weaken, and the trading volume shrank. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust, and long positions can be appropriately reduced [4][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rose, and the 2 - month manufacturing PMI was lower than expected. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in small amounts, and short - term positions should be temporarily on the sidelines [5][6] 3.2 Commodities 3.2.1 New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price increased, and the spot market price of the lithium - battery industry chain weakened. It is recommended to focus on structural long - making opportunities after the callback and downstream enterprises can replenish inventory at low prices [8] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price increased, and the polysilicon futures price decreased. The industrial silicon is affected by the increase in electricity prices, and the current fundamentals are still weak. It is necessary to wait for the improvement of the supply - demand pattern [8][9] 3.2.2 Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price of Shanghai aluminum was affected by the US - Iran conflict. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options for Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of alumina rebounded, and it is recommended to sell deep - out - of - the - money put options. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and attention can be paid to the price difference [10][11] - **Copper**: The copper price was adjusted at a high level. The expected price fluctuation range of Shanghai copper is 100020 - 105560 yuan/ton [11][13] - **Zinc**: The short - term fluctuation follows the sector, and it is necessary to observe the development of the Iran situation and the inventory turning point [13][14] - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It oscillated during the day, with complex market sentiment. It is short - term weak and medium - term strong [14][15] - **Tin**: It mainly followed the sector to rebound and is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [16] - **Lead**: It oscillated and adjusted, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [16][17] 3.2.3 Oils and Fats, and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans oscillated at a high level, and the domestic market continued to oscillate. It is recommended to expand the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [18][19] - **Oils**: The rise of the oil market paused. After the emotional cooling caused by geopolitical conflicts, the market will gradually return to fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the February data of Malaysian palm oil and the review of the US RFS final rules [19][20] 3.2.4 Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The internal market remained strong due to geopolitical concerns and high freight rates. The focus of the market is on the "physical blockade" degree of the Strait of Hormuz and the development of the US - Iran situation [21][22] - **Fuel Oil**: The near - month squeeze of high - sulfur fuel oil was obvious, and the short - term trend was dominated by the Middle - East geopolitical situation [23] - **Asphalt**: The premium was given back. The asphalt price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and short - term geopolitical disturbances are the core factors [24] 3.2.5 Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They oscillated upward. The medium - to - long - term bull market foundation remains, but short - term adjustment risks need to be vigilant [26][27] - **Gold & Silver**: They oscillated and consolidated. It is advisable to maintain a strategic long - position view and be vigilant against short - term adjustment risks [27][29] 3.2.6 Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp futures price oscillated. It is recommended to conduct range trading in the short term and try low - long strategies in the medium term. The offset paper futures price is approaching the previous high, and high - short strategies can be tried [31][32] - **LPG**: The price fluctuated greatly, and the trading core was the US - Iran situation. Attention should be paid to the "physical blockade" degree of the Strait of Hormuz and the situation of PDH enterprises [32][33] - **Methanol**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, it has two major positive factors, and several key indicators need to be closely monitored [34][35] - **Plastic PP**: The geopolitical disturbance continued, and the volatility increased. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and pay attention to high - short opportunities after the market sentiment calms down [35][37] - **Rubber**: It oscillated and consolidated, with multiple and short factors coexisting. The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate, and the butadiene rubber is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation [38][44] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The oscillation pattern continued. For soda ash, the supply may be affected by unexpected factors, and for glass, the actual demand has not returned yet, and the supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit the price increase [45][46] 3.2.7 Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price rebounded slightly. Policy expectations support the market in the short term, but the weak fundamentals limit the upward space. It is necessary to wait for the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions and the inventory reduction speed [47][48] - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. The market shows a supply - demand game pattern, and it is recommended to "be bearish but not short" [49] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The first round of price cuts started. The price may face downward pressure if there are combinations of "domestic mine复产 exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro - sentiment" [50][51] - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The short - term sentiment oscillated strongly. The silicon - manganese price is affected by high inventory, and the silicon - iron fundamentals are better [52][53] 3.2.8 Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The price冲高回落. It is recommended to sell the call option of the main hog contract LH2605 - C - 12800 [53][54] - **Cotton**: It oscillated and adjusted. The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight this year, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [55][56] - **Sugar**: The estimated sugar production in Yunnan in the 25/26 season was raised. The international raw sugar is under pressure, and the domestic market oscillates strongly in the short term [56][58] - **Eggs**: The price探底回升. It is recommended to sell the call option of the main egg contract [60] - **Apples**: The price rose strongly. The short - term demand weakens after the festival, but the delivery contradiction supports the price [68][69] - **Jujubes**: The price maintained an oscillation. The supply is abundant, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [70] - **Logs**: The market is relatively neutral, and the futures price oscillates. It is recommended to shift from a low - long strategy to a range - trading strategy [71][72]