Economic Overview - As of April 25, all 31 provinces have released their Q1 reports, with 21 provinces achieving growth rates that either surpassed or matched the national level [1] - The GDP of the top ten provinces reached 19.5 trillion yuan, accounting for over 60% of the national economy [2] Provincial Performance - Guangdong and Jiangsu both exceeded 3.3 trillion yuan in GDP, with Guangdong at 33,525.51 billion yuan and Jiangsu at 33,088.6 billion yuan, narrowing the gap [2] - Tibet led the growth rate at 7.9%, while Hubei achieved a 6.3% growth, marking its highest rate in nearly 12 quarters [3] Industrial Growth - All provinces reported positive growth in industrial output, with several provinces like Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangsu, and Shandong exceeding 8% growth [4] - New energy industries showed significant growth, with Guangdong's advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 5.9% and 5.3% respectively [4] Consumption and Investment - The government has emphasized boosting consumption and investment efficiency, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [5] - Major projects have shown a clear impact, with significant investment growth in provinces like Henan and Yunnan [6] Future Outlook - Provinces are focusing on high-quality development and addressing current economic challenges through targeted policies [7] - The emphasis is on stabilizing demand and optimizing supply, with a focus on innovation and improving public services [8]

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, GDP growth exceeded market expectations, with 19 provinces surpassing the national growth rate of 5.4%, indicating a stable growth trajectory across most regions [1][2] - The economic performance of major provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu, which are part of the "3 trillion club," plays a crucial role in stabilizing employment and growth nationally, accounting for nearly 30% of the national GDP [2][3] Regional Performance - The top three provinces by GDP in Q1 2025 are Guangdong (33,525.51 billion), Jiangsu (33,088.6 billion), and Shandong (23,466 billion), with several other provinces also exceeding the billion scale in GDP [2] - Fast-growing provinces such as Tibet, Hubei, Gansu, and Anhui are supported by emerging industries, including new energy vehicles and infrastructure projects [3] Industrial Growth - High-tech, digital, and green economies are driving growth, with Guangdong's advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors seeing increases of 5.9% and 5.3% respectively [4] - The production of high-tech products, including new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries, has seen significant growth, with increases of 29.9% and 83.5% respectively [4] Consumer Market Dynamics - The "trade-in" policy and the Spring Festival holiday have stimulated consumer markets, with Jiangsu reporting significant retail growth in various categories, such as a 51.4% increase in cultural and office supplies [5] - Shandong's retail sales grew by 5.6%, benefiting from the "trade-in" policy, which generated over 31 billion in consumption [5] Trade and Export - Gansu's foreign trade saw a remarkable increase of 49.4%, with exports of electric vehicles and photovoltaic products rising significantly [5] - Shandong's foreign trade reached 820.34 billion, a 5.9% increase, marking the highest level for the same period historically [5] Policy Initiatives - Various provinces are actively implementing measures to boost domestic demand, including consumer promotion plans and accelerating major industrial projects [7][8] - The focus is on enhancing consumption and upgrading traditional industries to release consumer potential and support high-quality economic development [7][8]

| 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 | 2025-04-26 | | 读 | | 外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现——4 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 事件：4 月 30 日统计局公布最新 PMI，其中制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 录得 50.4%，保持在荣枯线以上。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of tariffs on China's manufacturing sector, as indicated by a decline in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and other economic indicators, while also noting government responses to stabilize the economy [3][4][7]. Economic Indicators - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, down from 50.5%, signaling a contraction in the manufacturing sector [4]. - The construction business activity index was at 51.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the services business activity index was at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points [4]. - The production index fell to 49.8% from 52.6%, and the new orders index decreased to 49.2%, with new export orders plummeting to 44.7%, reflecting significant demand contraction [4][5]. Tariff Impact - The article notes that the effects of tariffs are fully transmitted to manufacturing enterprises, with a substantial year-on-year decrease of 45% in container orders shipped from China to the U.S. by mid-April [5]. - The export container price index for the route from China to the U.S. West Coast fell by 9.7% month-on-month [5]. Price Trends - The PMI price index saw a significant decline, with the factory price index at 44.8% and the raw material purchase price index at 47.9%, both down from previous levels [5]. - Commodity prices also fell, with Brent crude oil averaging $64.37 per barrel (down 11%), LME copper at $9,487.5 per ton (down 5.5%), and iron ore futures at 709 yuan per ton (down 6.7%) [5]. Inventory and Procurement - The procurement volume index dropped to 46.3% from 51.8%, indicating a significant reduction in purchasing activity [6]. - Raw material inventory index decreased to 47.0%, and finished goods inventory index fell to 47.3%, reflecting a contraction in inventory levels [6]. Import Trends - The import PMI recorded 43.4%, down 4.1 percentage points, influenced by reduced imports from the U.S. due to retaliatory tariffs and decreased demand for foreign goods [6]. Government Response - The Politburo meeting signaled three key strategies: maintaining flexible domestic reserve policies, emphasizing stability in employment and market expectations, and accelerating the implementation of existing policies [7]. - The government is expected to expedite the issuance and use of bonds, focusing on technology, consumption, and foreign trade [7]. Investment Outlook - The article suggests a favorable outlook for sectors related to new productive forces and consumer sectors supported by policy, advocating for a "dumbbell strategy" combining dividends and hard technology [8]. - A potential reduction in reserve requirements by 25-50 basis points and a possible interest rate cut of around 20 basis points in the coming months are anticipated, with 10-year government bond yields expected to drop to 1.5% [8].

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强 耿佩璇 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作 者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 4月30日，国家统计局公布4月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49%、前值50.5%；非制造业PMI为50.4%、 前值50.8%。 核心观点：4月新出口订单已明显下滑，但内需如基建与消费品行业PMI仍维持韧性。 4月PMI整体与分项读数均有走弱，但相对来看新订单指数更弱，生产仍维持较高水平。 4月制造业PMI 边际下行1.5pct至49%；剔除供应商配货指数的PMI也回落1.5pct。结构上生产、新订单指数均有回落，边 际分别下行2.8、2.6pct。由于PMI为环比指标，反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化；产需对比看， 新订单指数下行至49.2%，而生产指数仍在荣枯线附近（49.8%），反映本月需求偏弱，生产景气水平相 对较高。 需求内部呈现分化特征，其中新出口订单指数降幅较大，但内需订单更具韧性。 生产景气相对较高的情 况下，4月外贸货运量同比上行0.7pct至1.3%，主因前期订单在"抢出口 ...

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 recorded at 49%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a contraction in economic activity[1] - The production index and new orders index were at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both declining by 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The new export orders index fell to 44.7%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting a significant impact from external demand constraints[9] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, with both production and new orders indices above 52.0%[1] - Equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and high-energy industries recorded PMIs of 49.6%, 49.4%, and 47.7%, respectively, all showing declines from the previous month[1] - The production index for the equipment manufacturing sector remained stable at the critical point of 50%[3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The overall production activity in manufacturing showed a slight decline, with the purchasing volume index at 46.3%, down 5.5 percentage points from last month[3] - Domestic demand has been supported by policies promoting consumption, with significant increases in the replacement of old consumer goods, leading to a sales boost of over 720 billion yuan[10] - The overall price levels for raw materials and finished products have decreased, with the purchasing price index at 47.0% and the factory price index at 44.8%, both down from the previous month[16] Future Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index for April was at 50.2%, indicating continued expansion despite a 1.2 percentage point decline from the previous month[22] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicating expansion in the sector[20] - Risks include fluctuations in international commodity prices and geopolitical tensions that could further impact economic stability[23]

4月30日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，4月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个 百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%，继续保持在扩张区间。 另外，受市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂 价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%，均比上月下降，制造业市场价格总体水平有所下降。文韬表示，4月份 供需整体的偏弱运行带动了原材料和产成品价格加快下行。 不可否认，外贸环境变化给我国制造业带来一定扰动，市场需求和企业生产短期有所放缓，原材料采 购、市场价格等方面也有所波动，但也要看到我国经济底座依然稳固，超大规模市场、完备产业链供应 链体系等优势持续发挥作用，前期出台以及增量可期的一系列有力有效的宏观经济政策能够护航经济行 稳致远。赵庆河也谈到，虽然4月份制造业PMI有所回落，但高技术制造业等相关行业继续保持扩张， 以内销为主的制造业企业生产经营总体稳定。 从重点行业看，高技术制造业持续向好。高技术制造业PMI为51.5%，明显高于制造业总体水平，其生 产指数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上。生产经营活动预期指数 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - China's April manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to contraction territory[4] - The production index fell to 49.8%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points, while the new orders index declined to 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points[10] - New export orders plummeted to 44.7%, a significant drop of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting weakened external demand[10] Group 2: Economic Factors and Trends - Seasonal factors and external environment changes contributed to the decline in manufacturing PMI, with April historically showing negative month-on-month growth since 2016[6] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory output remained below the critical level, with the former at 47.0% and the latter at 44.8%, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances[15] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, showing resilience compared to other sectors, which experienced declines[17] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion[18] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, supported by increased consumer spending during the Qingming Festival[22] - The construction sector's business activity index remained robust at 51.9%, driven by infrastructure projects and government initiatives[26]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decline in the manufacturing PMI to 49% in April, the overall economic output in China continues to expand, indicating a long-term positive trend in the economy [1][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical point due to high growth in previous months and changes in the external environment [1]. - The new export orders index dropped to 44.7%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points, indicating a tightening of foreign demand [1]. - The manufacturing production index was recorded at 49.8%, down by 2.8 percentage points, reflecting a slight decline in overall production [2]. High-Tech Manufacturing - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, with both production and new orders indices above 52% [3]. - Industries such as food processing, pharmaceuticals, and beverages also showed strong performance, with production and new orders indices above 53% [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, slightly down by 0.4 percentage points, but still indicating stable expansion [3]. - The aviation transport and entertainment sectors saw significant increases in their business activity indices, both exceeding 55% [4]. Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index for April was 50.2%, indicating continued economic expansion despite a 1.2 percentage point decline from the previous month [4]. - The government emphasizes the need to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations to ensure high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [5].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for April has dropped to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, influenced by high previous growth rates and external environmental changes [2][3][18]. Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.5% to 49.0%, with the production index falling from 52.6% to 49.8% [2][18]. - The new orders index declined from 51.8% to 49.2%, while the new export orders index dropped significantly from 49.0% to 44.7% [2][18]. - The employment index fell from 48.2% to 47.9%, and the raw materials inventory index slightly decreased from 47.2% to 47.0% [2][18]. Group 2: Industry Performance High-Tech Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing continues to expand with a PMI of 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, supported by production and new orders both above 52.0% [5][10]. - Other sectors like equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and high-energy industries saw declines in their PMIs, indicating varying levels of economic performance [5][10]. Infrastructure - The civil engineering business activity index rose to 60.9%, up 6.4 percentage points, reflecting accelerated construction progress across various projects [13][20]. - The government aims to expedite funding for infrastructure projects, with significant budget allocations already made for 2023 and 2024 [14][20]. Resident Services - The service sector, particularly in areas related to tourism and leisure, remains robust, with relevant business activity indices above 50% [15][16]. - The government emphasizes the development of service consumption as a key area for economic growth, with specific measures to enhance consumer spending [16].