Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in international gold prices reaching a historical high of $3749.27 per ounce and silver prices nearing $44 per ounce has sparked discussions about a potential new bull market in commodities [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary driver behind the recent rise in gold prices is the strong market expectation for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite Chairman Powell's cautious stance on rapid policy adjustments [3] - The overall commodity market is showing signs of recovery, with international oil prices steadily rising and industrial metal prices rebounding from previous lows [3][4] - The fundamental price fluctuations in commodities are rooted in the dynamic balance of supply and demand, influenced by global supply chain restructuring and extreme weather conditions [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - On the supply side, insufficient investment in the mining and energy sectors over the past few years has limited capacity release, leading to structural supply gaps [4] - For instance, major copper mining companies are expected to cover only 3% of the demand growth from 2023 to 2024, while demand from sectors like renewable energy is growing at 8%-10% [4] - Demand is bolstered by various national "new infrastructure" and "energy transition" plans, particularly in China and Europe, which are driving the need for industrial commodities [6] Group 3: Policy and Monetary Environment - Global consensus on "stabilizing growth" has led to increased support for infrastructure and manufacturing investments, significantly impacting industrial commodity demand [6] - The U.S. plans to invest $369 billion in clean energy over the next decade, creating long-term demand for commodities [6] - The end of the interest rate hike cycle by major central banks and expectations of future rate cuts are contributing to a weaker dollar, which enhances the relative value of commodities [7] Group 4: Short-term Catalysts - Geopolitical tensions and inventory cycle changes can amplify commodity price volatility, acting as catalysts for a bull market [9] - Current geopolitical issues, such as tensions in the Middle East, have affected oil transport safety, leading to oil prices exceeding $90 per barrel [9] - Low inventory levels across major commodities, including a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, suggest that any marginal improvement in demand could lead to a price surge [9] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Companies in the commodity sector should focus on understanding cyclical changes and leverage tools like futures and options to hedge against price volatility [11] - Emphasizing the importance of digital transformation in risk management, companies can enhance decision-making accuracy and operational efficiency through integrated solutions [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Xinfeng Group is demonstrating a significant path in green low-carbon transformation, leveraging opportunities and challenges presented by the "dual carbon" goals [1] Group 1: Carbon Asset Management - Xinfeng Group has established a systematic approach to carbon asset management since the inception of the national carbon market in 2016, focusing on "early planning, pre-deployment, unified implementation, and value enhancement" [2] - The company has completed a total carbon quota trading volume of 35.73 million tons, with a trading value of 2.322 billion yuan, achieving an economic benefit of 1.326 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 5% of the national trading volume [2] - Xinfeng Group has been recognized as a "Leader in Industrial Carbon Peak Enterprises" and an "Outstanding Trading Practice Enterprise in the National Carbon Market" [2] Group 2: Digital Carbon Management - The company has developed a "dual carbon" payment platform that covers the entire process of carbon data collection, accounting, storage, and trading, ensuring data traceability and regulatory compliance [2] - Collaboration with national carbon measurement centers and research institutes has led to the development of standards for greenhouse gas emission measurement tools [2] Group 3: Circular Economy - Circular economy is a core feature of Xinfeng Group's low-carbon development, with a network covering five major sectors: energy, non-ferrous metals, high-end chemicals, environmental building materials, and modern agriculture [3] - The company has achieved significant resource savings and emissions reductions through its circular processes, such as saving over 1 million tons of standard coal and reducing CO2 emissions by over 2.6 million tons annually [3] Group 4: Carbon Reduction Pathways - Xinfeng Group is advancing carbon reduction through various strategies, including shutting down outdated power units, building efficient power generation units, and expanding renewable energy projects [4] - The company has implemented smart transport solutions and water-saving technologies, achieving a water-saving efficiency of 97% and zero wastewater discharge [4] - Future plans include continuing to leverage carbon asset management to promote green circular low-carbon development and contribute to national "dual carbon" goals [4]

宏观日报 | 2025-09-24 制造业中游开工回暖 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）国家能源局23日发布8月份全社会用电量等数据。8月份，全社会用电量10154亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.0%。7、8月份连续两个月全社会用电量超万亿千瓦时，这在全球也是首次。8月当月，工业用电量达到5909亿千 瓦时，占比近6成，全国制造业用电量同比增长5.5%，为今年以来最高，其中，钢铁、建材、有色、化工等原材料 行业用电量复苏势头明显。 服务行业： 1）上海市公安局、上海市市场监督管理局、上海市教育委员会联合发布《情况通报》：针对市民反映 的上海绿捷实业发展有限公司（下称"绿捷公司"）9月15日供应本市部分学校午餐中虾仁炒蛋存在问题，市委、市 政府高度重视，相关部门迅速介入调查。绿捷公司涉嫌瞒报食品安全相关信息，公安机关已立案侦查，并控制相 关人员。2） 9月23日4时30分左右，"伊斯坦布尔桥"轮从浙江宁波舟山港北仑港区启程，驶往英国最大集装箱港 口弗利克斯托港。这标志着全球首条中欧北极集装箱快航正式通航。该航线将连通中欧主要港口，其中宁波舟山 港与英国最大集装箱港口弗利克斯托港的直通段，单程运输时效大幅缩短至18天。 数 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline with a V-shaped trend, while the bond market corrected and precious metals continued to rise to new highs [1] Market Analysis Stock Market - The A-share market showed a "divergent fluctuation, tail-end repair" characteristic, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index closing down by 0.18% and 0.29% respectively, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21% [2] - The market saw a total trading volume of 2.52 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in trading activity [2] - The technology sector remained a focal point, with semiconductor equipment and banking sectors leading gains, while tourism and consumer services faced significant adjustments [2] - The afternoon rebound was driven by technology stocks, particularly in sectors like photolithography machines and storage chips, reflecting investor confidence in the technology direction [2] Bond Market - The bond market experienced a collective adjustment, with long-term bonds showing greater weakness; the 30-year Treasury futures contract fell by 0.67%, reaching a new low since April [6] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose by 1.05 basis points to 1.7980%, while the 30-year yield increased by 1.6 basis points to 2.0990% [7] - The overall funding environment remained tight, with the central bank conducting a 276.1 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, leading to a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan [7] Commodity Market - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, reached new historical highs, with gold prices rising by 1.99% and silver by 1.78% [8] - The overall commodity market saw a decline, with the South China Commodity Index dropping by 1.09%, while agricultural and energy products performed poorly [8] - The long-term trend for precious metals is expected to remain upward due to support from U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risks [8] Trading Hotspots Recent Hot Products - Gold: Supported by central bank purchases and Fed rate cuts [12] - Artificial Intelligence: Accelerated capital expenditure by global tech giants [12] - Domestic Chips: Significant potential for domestic substitution due to technological breakthroughs [12] - Robotics: Accelerating industrialization trends [12] - Consumer Goods: Benefiting from RMB appreciation and market style shifts [12] Core Thoughts Summary - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, with a potential shift from "technology-led" to "balanced allocation" [13] - The technology sector's strong logic sub-sectors are anticipated to perform well, while dividend stocks will also highlight their allocation value [13] - In the commodity sector, precious metals and non-ferrous metals are likely to see smoother price increases due to global liquidity [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell mentioned balancing inflation concerns and a weakening job market in future interest - rate decisions, with the US dollar index steady and global risk appetite cooling. Domestically, economic data such as consumption, investment, and industrial added - value in August were lower than previous values and market expectations, and the central bank adhered to an independent monetary policy. The market's short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stock indices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position approach; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; for commodities, black metals, energy chemicals, and glass are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; non - ferrous metals and precious metals are expected to fluctuate, with a cautious long - position approach [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate decision and the weakening job market impact the global situation. Domestically, economic data shows a slowdown in domestic demand, and the central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy. The short - term upward macro - drive weakens, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Stock indices and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position for stock indices and a cautious wait - and - see for treasury bonds [2]. 3.2 Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as tourism, hotels, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Economic data shows a slowdown in domestic demand, and the central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy. The short - term upward macro - drive weakens, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long - position is recommended [3]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets slightly corrected on Tuesday, with low trading volume. Policy expectations were disappointed, and market risk - aversion increased. Demand weakened, but there were differences among varieties. Supply is regulated by policies. The short - term steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range [4]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures and spot prices declined. Steel mills continued to replenish stocks before the National Day, and iron ore production increased. Global iron ore shipments decreased, while arrivals increased. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a negative feedback risk after November [4][5]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices slightly declined. The price of silicon iron is supported by electricity costs, and the production reduction is limited. The futures prices of both are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [5]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - The manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and the UK were weaker than expected, and the previous recovery of the global manufacturing PMI was not sustainable. Copper concentrate production is high, and future demand may decline. The upside space is limited [7]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the aluminum price continued to fall, and the position decreased. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, non - ferrous metals returned to fundamental trading. The current aluminum fundamentals are weak, with slow inventory reduction and low - intensity demand recovery [7]. 3.4.3 Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs are rising. It is in the off - season of demand, and orders are growing slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [8]. 3.4.4 Tin - The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi is low, mainly affected by maintenance and tight ore supply, but the impact is expected to be short - term. Terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, but the upside is under pressure [8]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, the lithium carbonate futures price declined. The current supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [9]. 3.4.6 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon futures price declined. There is no obvious positive factor, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [9]. 3.4.7 Polysilicon - On Tuesday, the polysilicon futures price declined. Spot prices have increased, and there are still strong policy expectations. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support of spot prices [10]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Crude Oil - The market is concerned about the increasing threat to Russian oil supply, and oil prices rebounded slightly. However, Iraq may resume exports, so the short - term oil price will continue to fluctuate [11]. 3.5.2 Asphalt - The rebound of oil prices drove asphalt prices up, but the peak - season demand is over, and there is still excess pressure. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the extent of following the increase of oil prices [11][12]. 3.5.3 PX - The PX futures price fluctuates with the polyester sector, with support from crude oil costs. The PXN spread has decreased, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with some support below [12]. 3.5.4 PTA - The stimulus of PTA production - cut rumors has ended, and there is no substantial news. Downstream demand has declined, and inventory has increased. Although there are cost supports, the futures price may decline under the influence of short - term capital [12]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price remains in a low - level fluctuation. Port inventory has changed little, and downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13]. 3.5.6 Short - fiber - Short - fiber prices have declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, but the increase is limited. Inventory has accumulated slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium term [13]. 3.5.7 Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang fluctuates weakly. In the short term, the supply is still in excess, but in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the impact of imports in October, and there may be opportunities to go long [14]. 3.5.8 PP - The PP market price has declined. Although the downstream demand has improved, the supply is still abundant. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [14]. 3.5.9 LLDPE - The LLDPE market price has declined. Supply has increased, and demand is less than expected. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but there is some support from oil prices [15][16]. 3.5.10 Urea - The urea market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory differentiation. The short - term pressure is high, and the price is expected to be weak [16]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 Corn - In the Northeast, the new - season corn is being harvested smoothly, with high opening prices. In North China, the price of new corn has declined, and the price of old corn is firm. In the sales area, the price is stable, and there is support from feed mills' replenishment. The market generally expects the price to decline during the peak - harvest period from mid - October to November [18]. 3.6.2 US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean price increased slightly. Argentina's cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and other products has a negative impact, but there is some support from the downgrade of US soybean crop ratings and increased China - US contacts [18]. 3.6.3 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Argentina's cancellation of export taxes has limited impact on the domestic market. The overall supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and soybean meal should not be overly shorted [18]. 3.6.4 Oils - The soybean oil market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The rapeseed oil market is cautious due to Sino - Canadian trade relations, and inventory is decreasing. The palm oil market has improved export demand and decreased production, with positive data supporting the price [18]. 3.6.5 Pigs - Pig prices have reached a new low this year, and breeding profits have shrunk. The supply of pigs is sufficient, and demand is stable. The price is expected to stabilize in the second half of the month, with limited rebound space [19].

今年第18号台风"桦加沙"已加强为超强台风级，并逐渐趋向广东沿海，将给广东带来严重的风雨浪潮影 响。9月22日下午，台风"桦加沙"已成为今年以来的"全球风王"，其强度达到17级，眼区大且清晰。 这个被气象专家称为"今年以来最强"的台风，正引发华南地区经济领域的全面防御行动，财政、保险、 企业等多方力量已进入"战时状态"。 "风王"路径跟踪 中央气象台9月23日19时监测显示，今年第18号超强台风"桦加沙"中心已进入南海东北部海面，距离广 东省阳江市东偏南方向约465公里，中心附近最大风力降至16级、55米/秒，将以每小时20—25公里的速 度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。另外，"桦加沙"将于24日中午到晚上在广东珠海到湛江一带沿海 登陆（台风级或强台风级，13—15级，40—48米/秒），登陆后转向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。 据中国天气消息，无论"桦加沙"以何种强度登陆，深圳、珠海、中山、江门、阳江等地以及香港、澳门 都将处于"桦加沙"的危险半圆影响范围内，阵风非常强，有一定极端性，9月24日将是影响最严重一 天，需提前做好防御。 据中国天气网气象分析师孙倩倩介绍，台风"桦加沙"本身强度强、环流广，将会给 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is initiating interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in global asset prices, particularly in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 index hitting new highs multiple times this year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nvidia's significant investment in OpenAI has reignited interest in AI, contributing to the rise of major U.S. stock indices [1]. - The COMEX gold price closed at $3,775.10, marking the 36th record high of the year, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 43% [1]. - Risk assets and safe-haven assets are both reaching historical highs, raising questions about whether the market has perfectly priced in all favorable conditions [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Analysts from Bank of America and Deutsche Bank suggest that the market is not yet in a "perfect pricing" state, indicating potential for further gains despite visible bubble signs [4][6]. - The current economic environment, characterized by tax cuts, tariff reductions, and interest rate cuts, is seen as a "run-it-hot" policy that supports economic and stock market growth [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Historical data indicates that the current market rally may still have room for growth, with past bubbles showing an average increase of 244% from low to peak [8][10]. - A proposed five-point trading strategy includes investing in bubble assets, creating a "barbell" portfolio with both bubble and undervalued stocks, shorting bubble company bonds, and taking positions against U.S. bonds [11][12]. Group 4: Gold Market Analysis - The rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and expectations of interest rate cuts, creating a "perfect storm" for gold [13]. - Despite concerns about a potential bubble, key market indicators do not yet show signs of irrational exuberance, suggesting that gold is in a sustained bull market rather than a bubble [15][18].

Industry Overview Production Industry - The 2025 Yunqi Conference will be held from September 24th to 26th in Hangzhou with the theme of "Cloud-Intelligence Integration, Carbon-Silicon Symbiosis", featuring three main forums and over 110 aggregated topics focusing on AI, cloud computing, and industrial applications [1] Service Industry - At the press conference, the head of the central bank mentioned that the theme was about the mid - to long - term "14th Five - Year Plan" of the financial industry without short - term policy adjustments; the head of the financial regulatory agency stated that the total assets of the banking and insurance industries exceeded 500 trillion yuan with an average growth of over 9% in five years; the head of the CSRC said that the market value of the A - share technology sector accounted for over 1/4, and the number of tech companies in the top 50 market - value companies increased from 18 to 24; the deputy head of the central bank and head of the SAFE mentioned that cross - border two - way investment and financing were active, with overseas institutions and individuals holding over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits by the end of July [2] Upstream - Black: Wire rod prices have rebounded [3] - Energy: Crude oil and natural gas prices have slightly declined [3] Midstream - Energy: Coal consumption by power plants has remained stable at a medium level [4] - Agriculture: The production of pig products has increased [4] Downstream - Service: The number of domestic flights has increased [4] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 2288.6 | -0.50% | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/22 | 7.8 | 1.56% | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 9372.0 | -0.30% | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 15242.2 | -0.09% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/22 | 19.6 | -1.61% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 80233.3 | -0.95% | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 21942.0 | -1.22% | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 20826.7 | -1.09% | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 122750.0 | -0.81% | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 17081.3 | 0.29% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3167.5 | 1.07% | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 807.4 | -0.06% | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3410.0 | 2.87% | | Building materials | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 9/22 | 14.3 | 2.14% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 14908.3 | -1.49% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | Daily | - | 9/22 | 791.3 | -0.34% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/22 | 62.4 | -0.46% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/22 | 66.0 | -1.42% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3794.0 | -2.12% | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 784.0 | 1.16% | | Chemicals | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 4626.3 | -0.12% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 7386.7 | 0.11% | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 1655.0 | -0.60% | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 1262.5 | 0.00% | | Real estate | National cement price index | Daily | - | 9/22 | 133.3 | 1.86% | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 9/22 | 114.8 | 1.48% | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Points | 9/22 | 91.7 | -0.45% | [39]

Report Title - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed trends, with precious metals generally rising - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250923 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the overseas Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, opening up policy space for China's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity easing trading, and the risk of the Fed's independence may increase the potential elasticity of future interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the actual transmission to the US fundamentals after the rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market is fully expecting a 25bps rate cut. The US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data to be released in early - mid October should be monitored. Historically, it takes about 2 - 3 months for the Fed's preventive rate cuts to impact the US real economy [8]. - In the third quarter, China's economic growth slowed down continuously. The funds from existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place more quickly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "15th Five - Year Plan". Investment data from July to August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. In addition to seasonal factors, the increasing proportion of "debt - resolution" funds may lead to insufficient infrastructure funds in the fourth quarter. However, the GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and combined with the 5.3% growth rate in the first half of the year, the annual target of 5% can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in the fourth quarter will increase [8]. - After the domestic and overseas uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. However, in the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and the economic recovery expected driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the medium - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, the expected performance is equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and the weak US dollar trend will continue but at a slower pace. In addition, after the rise of domestic interest rates, the allocation value of bonds increases, and bonds should be allocated evenly with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold is a long - term strategic allocation, and interest rate cuts are the main logic in the fourth quarter, with the risk of premature trading of the recovery expectation [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed's decision will lead to global liquidity easing and create policy space for China. The market is dominated by liquidity easing trading, and the Fed's independence risk may affect future rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25bps rate cut. Monitor the US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data. Historically, it takes 2 - 3 months for rate cuts to impact the US real economy [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In Q3, China's economic growth slowed. Existing pro - growth policy funds are expected to be in place faster. Pay attention to 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new "15th Five - Year Plan" directions. July - August investment data slowed, especially infrastructure investment. "Debt - resolution" funds may lead to insufficient Q4 infrastructure funds. Q3 and Q4 GDP growth rates are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can be achieved. If September investment and exports decline, the probability of policy implementation in Q4 will increase [8]. - **Asset Views**: After uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may adjust in the short - term. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, risk assets will be supported by global liquidity and fiscal leverage. Medium - term (Q4 to H1 next year): equities > commodities > bonds. Short - term in Q4: stock market volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals favored, weak US dollar continues but at a slower pace. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after interest rate rise, and should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is a long - term strategic allocation, with interest rate cuts as the main Q4 logic and the risk of premature recovery trading [8]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term outlook is volatile due to the attenuation of incremental funds [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term outlook is volatile due to the deterioration of options market liquidity [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short - term. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The dovish expectations are driving the price up. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The return of peak - season demand has improved the fundamentals marginally. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has slightly increased, and inventory has remained stable overall. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [9]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and downstream restocking has begun. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has increased slightly, and the futures and spot prices have rebounded in tandem. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The decline in the peak - season futures market is limited, but there is still downward pressure in the medium - term. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The peak - season expectations support the futures market, but the supply - demand outlook is still pessimistic. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - **Glass**: Supply disruptions are awaited, and demand has improved slightly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to spot sales [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Demand has increased month - on - month, but supply is still growing. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Supply disruptions in copper mines have occurred, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [9]. - **Alumina**: The spot market has weakened, and inventory has accumulated. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends [9]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [9]. - **Zinc**: Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [9]. - **Lead**: The supply of secondary lead has decreased, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate upward. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [9]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply shortages [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures market has risen significantly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [9]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand expectations [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply has continued to increase, suppressing the upward space of the silicon price. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [11]. - **LPG**: The valuation has been restored, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is running below the 3500 pressure level. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances have not had a significant impact, and the fuel oil futures price has weakened. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is following the weakening trend of crude oil. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Olefins and port inventory are dragging down the market, and there is still a large contradiction between near - and far - month contracts. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - energy factors and the dynamics of upstream and downstream devices [11]. - **Urea**: The price is under pressure along the cost line, and there is a risk of an over - reaction in sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the urea export window will be extended, quota adjustments, and the authenticity of the seventh Indian tender [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market sentiment is greatly affected by the expected future inventory build - up, and the willingness to hold positions is low. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory trends, and device implementation [11]. - **PX**: The postponement of device maintenance and capacity expansion have weakened the supply - demand balance, and the high valuation is being corrected. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [11]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees have increased the willingness of enterprises to cut production and conduct maintenance. Although short - term supply - demand conditions have improved, the long - term oversupply situation cannot be reversed. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders have improved marginally, but the improvement is limited, and high supply poses potential risks. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [11]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: There is short - term concentrated replenishment, but the medium - to - long - term demand rebound height is uncertain, and profits are fluctuating. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprises' production - cut targets and terminal demand [11]. - **Propylene**: The price difference between propylene and PP is oscillating in the range of 500 - 550. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [11]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low, and PP is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is expected to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - **PVC**: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and PVC is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: The expectation of alumina production resumption has increased, and caustic soda prices have rebounded. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [11]. Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support level for oils and fats. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [11]. - **Protein Meal**: Downstream price - fixing for pre - holiday stocking has led to a rebound at the lower end of the trading range. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade frictions [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: The support at 2150 is strong, and the short - term market may fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to demand, macro - factors, and weather [11]. - **Hogs**: Supply is sufficient, and prices are weak. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Rubber**: The sentiment is bearish, and rubber prices have declined significantly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to weather in production areas, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The weakness of natural rubber has dragged down synthetic rubber. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations [11]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - **Sugar**: Imports have increased month - on - month, and sugar prices have continued to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to imports [11]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious driving force for a breakthrough, and pulp is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [11]. - **Offset Paper**: The trading volume is low, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to sales, education policies, and paper mill production dynamics [11]. - **Logs**: The commodity market has adjusted, and logs are expected to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to shipping volume and shipment volume [11].

各位老铁，我是帮主郑重！跟大家盯了20年财经，专做中长线投资，今儿凌晨翻大宗商品数据，发现这市场还真有点"几家欢喜"的意思——黄金直接飙到 历史新高，油价却悄悄微跌，铜价倒是稳得很。这仨核心品种走势分化，背后藏着不少跟咱们投资相关的信号，咱今儿就用聊天的方式，把这事儿捋明 白。 先说说原油，周一算是小跌了一点，10月到期的WTI原油收在62.64美元每桶，11月更活跃的合约还低点儿，62.28美元；布伦特原油也跌了0.2%，收在 66.57美元。为啥跌？主要是投资者在"算账"：一边是欧盟要对俄罗斯石油搞新制裁，据说重点盯着第三国的石油企业，连印度几家公司都可能波及；另 一边是乌克兰周六袭击了俄罗斯的能源设施，连干线输油管道的泵站都给破坏了，之前还打了两座炼油厂。 听着好像挺紧张，但业内人看得明白——就像瑞典北欧斯安银行那分析师说的，乌克兰这袭击能对冲点利空，但强度还不够，没到能让俄罗斯石油基础 设施出大问题、影响长期供应的地步。而且从8月初到现在，油价一直卡在5美元的波动区间里没动，BOK Financial的专家也说了，想打破这区间，美欧 得在制裁俄罗斯买家上达成一致，不然光靠对俄加制裁，效果有限。咱做中长 ...