1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated and trended stronger. The central bank has completed the handling of suggestions and proposals from the "Two Sessions" in 2025, and is promoting the high - level opening - up of the financial sector in an orderly manner. The weekly output of rebar decreased this period, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 36.19%. Terminal demand has recovered, but the apparent demand is still at a relatively low level, and inventory continues to increase. With the "Two Sessions" approaching, some steel mills' blast furnaces have production - cut plans, and geopolitical tensions continue to push up oil prices, which support commodity prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are stable. It is recommended for short - term trading with risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,074.00 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] - RB main contract position: 1,881,888 lots, down 21,925 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net position: - 33,296 lots, up 1,229 lots [2] - RB5 - 10 contract spread: - 31 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] - RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 22,828 tons, unchanged [2] - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 145 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,240.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,323 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,450.00 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,120.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - RB main contract basis: 166.00 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 60.8% PB iron ore fines: 755.00 yuan/wet ton, up 5.00 yuan [2] - Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke (FOB price): 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - excluded): 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,910.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 17,096.31 million tons, up 153.98 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 62.59 million tons, up 7.21 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 675.06 million tons, down 13.52 million tons [2] - Tangshan billet inventory: 219.46 million tons, up 45.24 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 80.24%, up 0.09% [2] - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 87.48%, up 1.05% [2] - Sample steel mills' rebar output: 165.10 million tons, down 5.28 million tons [2] - Sample steel mills' rebar capacity utilization rate: 36.19%, down 1.16% [2] - Sample steel mills' rebar inventory: 232.84 million tons, up 11.77 million tons [2] - 35 - city rebar social inventory: 567.76 million tons, up 72.79 million tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 11.46%, down 10.42% [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2] - China's rebar monthly output: 1,375 million tons, up 19 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 1,078.00 million tons, up 130.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: - 3.80%, down 1.20% [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 17.20%, down 1.30% [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment: - 2.20%, down 1.10% [2] - Cumulative value of housing construction area: 659,890 million square meters, down 3,824 million square meters [2] - Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 58,770 million square meters, down 5,313 million square meters [2] - Commodity housing unsold area: 40,236.00 million square meters, down 875.00 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - The press conference of the 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held this afternoon (March 3). The conference will open at 3 pm on March 4 and close on the morning of March 11, with a duration of 7 days [2] - As of February 28, 16 cities have introduced 21 property market relaxation policies. Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan", which reduces the entry threshold for non - Shanghai - registered homebuyers, expands the home - buying eligibility of the resident - permit holders, and moderately relaxes the purchase restrictions within the outer ring road. The Shanghai new policy provides a reference sample for the whole country [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal, the reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs, and the current off - season of aquaculture demand. Despite the short - term strength due to the rise of US soybeans, there is pressure on long - term supply. The rapeseed oil market is boosted by international oil prices and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Although there is long - term supply pressure, it is expected to be strong in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9464 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2310 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 697.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5839 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 54 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 59 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 272,868 hands, up 4058 hands; rapeseed meal is 888,198 hands, down 21,060 hands [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 9191 hands, up 7327 hands; rapeseed meal is - 213,146 hands, up 12,462 hands [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 625 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 1000 sheets, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,250 yuan/ton, average rapeseed oil price is 10,356.25 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; rapeseed (import) import cost price is 5252.04 yuan/ton, up 394.94 yuan [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 786 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 200 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - Substitute spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8770 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference is 1480 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference is 1250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 570 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Oil - meal ratio: 4.04, up 0.05 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed import quantity: 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; import rapeseed crushing profit is - 78 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 7.5 million tons, up 2.5 million tons; weekly import rapeseed startup rate is 3.2%, up 3.2 percentage points [2] - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal: 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 1 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 0.65 million tons, up 0.05 million tons [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 26.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory: 9.29 million tons, down 0.06 million tons [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 0.8 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory: 29.8 million tons, up 2.3 million tons [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量: - 0.18 million tons, down 0.18 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量: 0.54 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; edible vegetable oil production: 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2] - Social consumer goods retail sales - catering revenue: 573.8 billion yuan, down 3.19 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Rapeseed meal options: At - the - money call option implied volatility is 20.07%, up 0.91 percentage points; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 19.92%, up 0.77 percentage points; 20 - day historical volatility is 14.54%, down 0.25 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility is 14.63%, up 0.02 percentage points [2] - Rapeseed oil options: At - the - money call option implied volatility is 18.19%, up 1.69 percentage points; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 18.17%, up 1.67 percentage points; 20 - day historical volatility is 21.12%, up 0.93 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility is 18.02%, up 0.4 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - On March 2, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher due to the rise in energy prices driven by the Middle East situation. The most active May rapeseed contract rose 10.70 Canadian dollars to 698.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - The US Department of Agriculture expects the US soybean planting area in 2026 to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [2] - The Canadian Department of Agriculture predicts that the rapeseed production in 2026/27 will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year. The ending inventory is 1.65 million tons, lower than 2.75 million tons in the previous year [2] - The US Department of Agriculture's outlook forum predicts that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in 2025/26 will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in 2026/27 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term international oil price is still dominated by geopolitical factors. In terms of styrene supply and demand, last week, the production and capacity utilization rate of styrene increased month - on - month. The operating rates of downstream EPS, ABS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber increased to varying degrees, while the operating rate of PS decreased slightly. Factory and port inventories accumulated seasonally, and the inventory pressure was not large. In March, some devices such as Gulei and Hengli have maintenance plans, the capacity utilization rate of styrene is expected to change from rising to falling, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The previously shutdown downstream devices are gradually resuming, and the demand side is seasonally recovering. However, the downstream is generally at a medium - high inventory and medium - low profit level, which may have a negative feedback on styrene. The supply - demand drive of styrene is not strong, and it is expected to fluctuate with the international oil price in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The trading volume of the active futures contract of styrene was 1,059,462 lots, a decrease of 12,662 lots; the closing price of the main futures contract was 8,081 yuan/ton; the number of long positions of the top 20 holders was 456,885 lots, a decrease of 20,952 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 holders were 378,353 lots, a decrease of 40,732 lots; the number of short positions of the top 20 holders was 497,617 lots, a decrease of 2,960 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a decrease of 5,856 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 7,925 yuan/ton (an increase of 195 yuan/ton), 7,900 yuan/ton (an increase of 275 yuan/ton), 8,070 yuan/ton, and 7,905 yuan/ton (an increase of 230 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 751 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 421 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18.85 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was - 4.33 US cents/gallon; the CIF price of pure benzene in Taiwan was 780.67 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of pure benzene in Rotterdam was 920 US dollars/ton, an increase of 31 US dollars/ton. The market prices of pure benzene in South, East, and North China were 6,300 yuan/ton (an increase of 150 yuan/ton), 6,360 yuan/ton, and 6,110 yuan/ton respectively [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall operating rate of styrene was 74.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.45%. The national inventory of styrene was 209,130 tons, an increase of 48,270 tons; the total inventory in the main ports of East China was 158,100 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 12.17% (unchanged), 70.7% (an increase of 0.2%), 49% (a decrease of 0.7%), 15% (unchanged), and 80.25% (an increase of 0.05%) respectively [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From February 20th to 26th, the overall output of Chinese styrene factories was 372,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.44%; the capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.45%. - From February 19th to 26th, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of styrene in China was 192,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.4%. - As of February 26th, the inventory of styrene factories was 209,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.01%. As of March 2nd, the inventory of styrene in East China ports was 175,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.07%; the inventory in South China ports was 53,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70.97%. - As of February 28th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 367.78 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 888.91 yuan/ton [2].

持续。短期BZ2604预计随国际油价震荡。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6761 | 210 主力结算价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6664 | 331 | | | 主力成交量:纯苯(日,手) 市场价:纯苯:华东市场:主流价(日,元/吨) | 39732 | 8123 主力持仓量:纯苯(日,手) | 28834 | -620 | | 现货市场 | | | | | 0 | | | 市场价:纯苯:华南市场:主流价(日,元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol port inventory has accumulated slightly compared to before the Spring Festival. Although the unloading speed of foreign vessels during the period was average, the restricted提货 during the holiday also affected consumption. The MTO device load in the Yangtze - River Delta region is not high currently, and there is an expectation of recovery in the near future, and the port will enter the destocking stage. However, the terminal demand is difficult to recover quickly, and the overall rigid demand is weak. There are no plans for device changes in domestic MTO enterprises in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the restart time of two MTO devices in East China. The inventory pressure of inland enterprises was partially transferred through pre - sale before the Spring Festival, but the downstream digestion was slow, and the post - festival procurement demand is still weak. Attention should also be paid to the destocking after the spring inspection and the post - festival demand recovery. Affected by the Middle East situation, there is an expected reduction in methanol production and exports from Iran. The short - term futures price may be strong, but it is not advisable to blindly chase the rise. Be cautious of the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price and pay attention to risk control [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,557 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 192 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 99 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 101 yuan/ton. - The position of the main methanol contract is 942,657 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 162 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of methanol is - 96,089 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 15,734 lots. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 8,931 lots, with no week - on - week change [3]. 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 135 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1,880 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton. - The spread between East China and Northwest is 400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 85 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 51 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 280 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 21 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 325 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 US dollars/ton. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 300 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 11 euros/ton; the spread between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 45 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 18 US dollars/ton [3]. Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas is 2.98 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 1.0442 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 402,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons. - The methanol import profit is - 32.41 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 1.734 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 316,400 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 535,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 195,000 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 92.8%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.73 percentage points [3]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 14.7%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.65 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 3.33%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.06 percentage points. - The acetic acid operating rate is 84.11%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 67.22%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.65 percentage points. - The olefin operating rate is 84.08%, with no week - on - week change. The methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 1,248 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 351 yuan/ton [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 41.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 12.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 32.81%, with a week - on - week increase of 7.16 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 37.05%, with a week - on - week increase of 13.67 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 37.08%, with a week - on - week increase of 13.7 percentage points [3]. Industry News - As of February 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 535,300 tons, an increase of 195,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 57.32%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 205,800 tons, a decrease of 109,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 34.69%. - As of February 25, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.4467 million tons, an increase of 14,500 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased slightly by 500 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 15,000 tons. The methanol port inventory has accumulated slightly compared to before the Spring Festival. Although the unloading speed of foreign vessels during the period was average, the restricted提货 during the holiday also affected consumption. - As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%. Recently, the operation of domestic MTO enterprise devices has been stable, and there has been no significant change in the operating rate. The domestic methanol production has increased as the production capacity loss caused by recent maintenance and production reduction is less than the output of the restored production capacity. In terms of supply and demand, domestic gas - based MTO devices have gradually resumed and reached a high load before the Spring Festival, resulting in an increase in the overall market supply. Both ports and inland areas have seen inventory accumulation last week [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the tense situation between the US and Iran is expected to continue, and safe - haven funds may support the prices of gold and silver. Gold prices may challenge historical highs again, but there may be a callback if the conflict intensity is lower than expected. In the long - term, the structural logic of deepening geopolitical rifts and weakening US dollar credit remains unchanged, and gold's appeal as a safe - haven asset persists. It is recommended to buy on dips and control risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1182.000 yuan/gram, down 15.2; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 21645 yuan/kg, down 2786.00. The main contract position of Shanghai gold was 139,770.00 hands, down 14823.00; that of Shanghai silver was 6,074.00 hands, down 1112.00. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold was 392,779.00, up 72849.00; that of Shanghai silver was 598,151.00, up 72660.00. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 105060 kg, unchanged; that of Shanghai silver was 307,484 kg, down 1952 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1182.00, down 17.45; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 22,687.00, down 803.00. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 0.00, down 2.23; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 1,042.00, up 1983.00 [2] Supply and Demand - The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 0.00 tons, unchanged; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,902.24 tons, down 90.16. The non - commercial net long position of gold in CFTC was 159177.00 contracts, down 738.00; that of silver was 22,260.00 contracts, down 1743.00. The total supply of gold was 1302.80 tons per quarter, down 0.19; the total supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons per year, up 482.00. The total demand for gold was 1345.32 tons per quarter, up 79.57; the total demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons per year, down 491.00 [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index was 98.55, up 0.91; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.76, up 0.04. The VIX volatility index was 21.44, up 1.58; the CBOE gold volatility index was 34.83, up 1.60. The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price was 1.30, down 0.02; the gold - silver ratio was 56.16, down 1.88 [2] Industry News - The US continues military operations in Iran, and the operation may last 4 - 5 weeks. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimates that European natural gas prices may rise 130% and oil prices may rise $18 per barrel. The ISM manufacturing activity index is 52.4, in the expansion range. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 6.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 93.6% [2] Key Points to Watch - On 03 - 03 at 18:00, the year - on - year growth rate of Eurozone CPI; on 03 - 04 at 21:15, the US ADP private employment report; on 03 - 05 at 20:30, the US January trade balance data [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the domestic PVC maintenance capacity increases, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly from a high level. After the Lantern Festival, downstream enterprises fully resume work, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually rise to the annual high. The domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to be alleviated, but the situation of supply exceeding demand is expected to continue, and the high - level inventory is difficult to reduce. The cost support of the calcium carbide method is weak, and the cost of the ethylene method has a strengthening trend but the impact is relatively limited. The upward space of V2605 in the short term is expected to be limited, and attention should be paid to the support around 4760 and the pressure around 4980 technically [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4939 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 71; the trading volume is 2274341 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 279227; the open interest is 1149647 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 58135. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1117193 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 36795; the short position is 1218510 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 68824; the net long position is - 101317 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 32029 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of PVC ethylene method is 4930 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the price of PVC calcium carbide method is 4654.81 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 24.44. In the South China region, the price of PVC ethylene method is 4990 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15; the price of PVC calcium carbide method is 4768.75 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 16.88. The CIF price of PVC in China is 720 US dollars/ton, with no change; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 700 US dollars/ton, with no change; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 730 US dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of PVC is - 268 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 86 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2700 yuan/ton, with no change; in North China, it is 2573.33 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 16.67; in Northwest China, it is 2378 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, with no change. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 492 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 528 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 21. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 220 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 224 US dollars/ton, with no change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 82.08%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01%; the operating rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 81.88%, with no change; the operating rate of PVC ethylene method is 82.54%, with no change. The total social inventory of PVC is 61.56 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06; the total social inventory in the East China region is 56.2 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05; the total social inventory in the South China region is 5.36 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58769.96 square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 5313.26; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 659890.29 square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 3824.09; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2871.41 [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 21.79%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.79%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.65%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.84; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.64%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.84 [3] 3.7 Industry News - From February 20th to 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.08%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. From February 21st to 27th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 17.11% week - on - week to 17.11%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 13.6% week - on - week to 13.6%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 11.3% week - on - week to 11.3%. As of February 26th, the PVC social inventory was 135.30 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%. From February 20th to 26th, the average national cost of the calcium carbide method decreased to 4991 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene method increased to 4984 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method was - 439 yuan/ton, and the loss was alleviated; the profit of the ethylene method was 11 yuan/ton, and the profit narrowed [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The holiday production capacity has been continuously released, resulting in a certain inventory in the production areas. The market is under significant pressure, and the post - holiday opening prices in various places have dropped by about 0.5 yuan per catty compared to before the holiday. With the resumption of work in enterprises, the market sales have slightly improved, but due to inventory pressure, traders are still mainly focused on clearing inventory. The laying - hen inventory is still at the highest level in the same period, and the supply - side pressure remains high, which still has a certain impact on the spot egg price in the short term. From a market perspective, the futures price generally remains volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of eggs (active contract) is 3197 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 45 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 5423 hands, a decrease of 5340 hands. The monthly spread of egg futures (5 - 9) is - 434 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 32 yuan. The futures trading volume of the active contract is 109,597 hands, a decrease of 12,816 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 30 hands, an increase of 2 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.06 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.01 yuan. The basis (spot - futures) is - 139 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 31 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 109.28 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 2.75; the national culled laying - hen index is 124.98 (2015 = 100), an increase of 23.8. The average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.3 yuan per chick, an increase of 0.1 yuan. The national new - chick index is 71.99 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 21.63. The average price of laying - hen feed is 2.8 yuan per kilogram, unchanged. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.49 yuan per hen, a decrease of 0.4 yuan. The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 8.86 yuan per kilogram, unchanged. The average age of culled chickens nationwide is 500 days, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.22 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.17 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.49 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.06 yuan. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.18 days, a decrease of 0.08 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.29 days, an increase of 0.05 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 1,853.2 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 4,278 tons, a decrease of 2,112 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.11 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; the average price in Hebei is 5.87 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.03 yuan from yesterday; the average price in Guangdong is 6.27 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.20 yuan from yesterday; the average price in Beijing is 6.32 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday [2] 3.7 Key Focus - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Overseas geopolitical conflicts may push up oil prices, causing market concerns about re - inflation, potentially leading to the Fed's failure to cut interest rates this year, suppressing the RMB exchange rate and limiting the PBOC's room for RRR and interest rate cuts. However, strong consumer spending during the Spring Festival shows the effectiveness of domestic demand - expansion policies, and the accelerated movement of household deposits provides liquidity support for the stock market. The market's concerns about external risks may put short - term pressure on A - shares, but long - term trends depend on oil price increases and the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Prices**: All major and minor contracts of IF, IC, IH, and IM showed declines. For example, the IF main contract (2603) dropped from the previous value by 60.6 to 4651.4 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most of the contract spreads decreased, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread, which dropped by 33.0 to 1632.4 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For instance, the IF top 20 net position decreased by 1726.0 to 32,461.00 [2]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis increased by 13.0 to - 4.5 [2]. 3.2 Market Sentiment Indicators - **Transaction Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume reached 31,575.58 billion yuan, up 1117.93 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 26,740.07 billion yuan, up 48.09 billion yuan [2]. - **Investor Sentiment Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks dropped by 9.11% to 11.72%; the Shibor dropped by 0.048% to 1.267% [2]. 3.3 Industry News - **Domestic Stock Market**: A - share major indices closed significantly lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.07%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.57%. Over 4800 stocks declined, with the defense and military industry sector weakening and the petroleum and petrochemical sector strengthening [2]. - **Overseas Situation**: Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran over the weekend led to concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz was closed, and the yield of US 10 - year Treasury futures exceeded 4%, indicating a significant increase in market expectations of re - inflation [2]. - **Domestic Economic Fundamentals**: During the Spring Festival in 2026, domestic tourism and spending increased compared to 2025, and the average daily number of travelers was also higher [2]. 3.4 Key Events to Watch - **Domestic**: The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5; the National Committee of the 14th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4 - 11. China's February official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI will be released on March 4 at 9:30 [2][3]. - **Overseas**: The US February ADP employment data will be released on March 4 at 21:15; the US February non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate will be released on March 6 at 21:30 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has deteriorated, the effective shipping capacity has rapidly shrunk, Trump's tariff war has resurfaced, and the cancellation of photovoltaic tax refunds in April has forced shipments and stockpiling in March. These factors support the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line). In the short term, the supply - demand pattern has shifted from slack in the off - season to tight balance, strengthening the shipping companies' bargaining power [1]. - If the US - Iran situation further deteriorates and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the freight rate index is expected to continue rising. In the medium term, if the blockade is lifted, oil prices will fall, shipping capacity will recover, and freight rates will gradually return to the off - season fundamentals, with the increase being reversed. However, affected by panic and避险情绪, the freight rate is expected to be higher than the pre - blockade level. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and timely track shipping company quotes and cargo volume data, as well as the persistence of the US - Iran conflict and the progress of the subsequent Iranian regime transition [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - EC main contract closing price is 1644.800, up 250.9; EC second - main contract closing price is 2181.7, up 332.8 [1]. - EC2604 - EC2606 spread is - 536.90, down 81.00; EC2604 - EC2608 spread is - 632.80, down 81.60 [1]. - EC contract basis is - 181.40, down 325.71 [1]. - EC main contract open interest is 44074, down 2169 [1]. Spot Market - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) is 1463.40, down 110.11, a 7.0% week - on - week decline; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) is 1045.08, down 66.93 [1]. - SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1251.46, down 81.65; container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs) is 1227.97, down 0.11 [1]. - CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1088.14, up 43.57; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) is 1508.26, up 43.97 [1]. - Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2140.00, up 47.00; Panama Freight Index (daily) is 1942.00, up 37.00 [1]. - Average charter price of Panama - type ships is 0.00, unchanged; average charter price of Cape - type ships is 28568.00, up 1354.00 [1]. Industry News - Trump said a nuclear - armed Iran is unacceptable to the US, and the US will continue large - scale military operations in Iran, which may last 4 - 5 weeks. He may lift sanctions if Iran's next leader is pragmatic. Iran's top security official said they won't negotiate with the US [1]. - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps advisor said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and Iran will attack ships passing through. Goldman Sachs estimates that European natural gas may rise 130% and oil prices may rise $18 per barrel, equivalent to a 6 - week Strait of Hormuz blockade. JPMorgan analysts said if the strait is fully closed due to Middle - East conflicts, Middle - East oil - producing countries can only continue production for "at most 25 days" [1]. - After the US Supreme Court overturned most of Trump's tariffs, the federal appellate court rejected the government's request to postpone the subsequent steps of the tariff refund dispute. More than $175 billion in illegally imposed tariffs will enter the refund process [1]. Market Impact - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) continued to hit the daily limit on Tuesday. Geopolitical tensions have increased shipping operating costs. MSC has raised the price of large containers to $3200 in the second half of the month, a $200 increase from the first half. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led shipping companies to immediately raise prices on Middle - East routes by $1000 - $1500, which may quickly be reflected in spot quotes [1]. - Trump has imposed a 10% ad - valorem import tariff on imported goods to the US for 150 days starting from February 24, and later said he would raise it to 15%, increasing trade costs [1]. - The ECB has maintained interest rates unchanged. With inflation stabilizing and economic data improving, the market expects the ECB to continue its wait - and - see stance [1].