专题报告 2026-01-30 钢材：从地产约束到信用改善 报告要点： 近期，万科债务展期的平稳落地与监管层不再硬性要求房企上报"三条红线"指标，标志着房 地产行业运行逻辑发生了根本性逆转。黑色金属行业作为其核心上游，过去三年锚定的"信用 收缩-开工坍塌"负反馈环路正在解体。我们认为，当前黑色系品种正处于由悲观预期出清向 信用溢价修复的切换期，市场需重新评估下游需求韧性与定价结构变化。 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 赵 航（联系人） 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢 黑色金属研究 | 钢材 1.黑色顶压前行，结构呈现韧性 2026 年是"十五五"规划的开局之年。在 2025 年我国 GDP 突破 140 万亿元、经济 增速保持 5.0%的背景下，宏观运行正由总量扩张转向结构优化与动能切换。作为 国民经济的重要基础行业，黑色金属需求逻辑正经历从"地产主导"向"制造业与 新型基建驱动"的深刻重构。近期万科债券展期方案的成功落地，在阶段性缓释 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Xinjiang region, particularly the Tianshan North Slope urban agglomeration, has made significant progress in air quality improvement over the past three years, achieving a notable reduction in air pollution and enhancing the quality of life for residents [3][4][9]. Group 1: Air Quality Improvement - The Tianshan North Slope urban agglomeration, which includes key areas such as Urumqi, Changji, and Shihezi, has seen a historical improvement in air quality, with an air quality good rate reaching 91.0% in 2025, marking a continuous improvement over five years [4][6]. - The proportion of heavily polluted days in the Tianshan North Slope urban agglomeration was reduced to 1.5% in 2025, with specific regions like "U-Chang-Shi" at 3.3% and "Kui-Du-U" at 1.1% [4][6]. Group 2: Pollution Control Measures - Xinjiang has focused on structural, root cause, and trend-related issues in air pollution, implementing comprehensive measures to address industrial, energy, and transportation structures [6][10]. - The region has targeted key pollution sources, including coal-burning and industrial emissions, with specific strategies to reduce PM2.5 contributions from these sources [6][7]. Group 3: Industry and Energy Adjustments - The region has made strides in optimizing industrial structures, including relocating 550,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity and 2,600 tons/day of cement capacity to non-key areas [7]. - Renewable energy capacity in the "U-Chang-Shi" area reached 51.6% in 2023, a significant increase of 29.6 percentage points from 2022, as part of efforts to phase out coal [7][10]. Group 4: Technological and Collaborative Efforts - A national air pollution prevention and control joint center has been established in Xinjiang to enhance research capabilities and implement targeted pollution control technologies [8][10]. - The region has engaged in collaborative agreements with major enterprises to utilize grid electricity, significantly reducing pollutant emissions during peak usage [8][11]. Group 5: Future Directions - Xinjiang plans to continue its focus on deep pollution control in key industries, with a commitment to high-quality development and sustainable air quality improvements [12]. - The region aims to integrate carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and green expansion strategies to enhance air quality and promote economic growth [12].

首席点评：贵金属巨震 当地时间 1 月 29 日，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在下周公布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名人选。特 朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔 " 再次拒绝降息 " ，并声称美国利率应该在世界上处于 最低水平。特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将 " 干得不错 " ，美联储目前利率 " 高得不可接受 " 。 1 月 29 日，国务院办公厅发布《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，提出聚焦交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服 务、旅居服务、汽车后市场服务、入境消费 6 个重点领域，以及演出服务，体育赛事服务，情绪式、体验式服 务 3 个潜力领域，加快培育服务消费新增长点，促进服务消费提质惠民，为经济高质量发展提供有力支撑。国 际贵金属期货普遍收涨， COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32% 报 5410.80 美元 / 盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98% 报 115.78 美元 / 盎司。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铝 贵金属： 贵金属一度大幅下挫，随后震荡回升。近期国际金价持续飙升并迭创历史新高，这是地缘政治格局剧 烈动荡、全球政治经济秩序动摇与流动性环境持续宽松共同作用的必然结果。今年 ...

Group 1: Key Insights from the Reports - The report on the banking industry indicates that 2026 is expected to be a year where the fundamentals of banks improve, with revenue pressure less than in 2025 and a stronger elasticity of revenue improvement compared to profit [13] - The banking sector is anticipated to experience a shift from a focus on liquidity to a focus on fundamentals, with expectations of economic recovery and a more favorable environment for growth premiums [13] - The report highlights that credit demand is expected to remain stable, but the structure of demand needs optimization, with state-owned banks and quality regional city commercial banks likely to perform better [13] Group 2: Industry Performance and Trends - The metal and new materials industry report notes a significant increase in metal prices due to geopolitical tensions, with precious metals rising by 18.46% and aluminum by 4.16% in the recent week [5][16] - The report emphasizes that the copper market is expected to remain strong due to increased investment in power grids and AI data centers, with a projected price increase [15] - The report on Anta Sports highlights the acquisition of a 29% stake in PUMA, which is seen as a strategic move to enhance its global multi-brand strategy, with the transaction valued at approximately 15 billion euros [19] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Shipbuilding's earnings forecast for 2025 indicates a significant increase in net profit, expected to be between 7 billion to 8.4 billion yuan, driven by rising demand in the shipbuilding sector [21] - New Oriental's revenue for the second quarter of FY26 reached 1.191 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, with a notable improvement in operating profit margins [22] - Dongfang Zhenxuan reported a revenue increase of 5.7% in the first half of FY26, driven by self-operated product sales and improved profit margins [24]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the steel industry [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that rebar production is expected to continue declining, with stable short-term production and accumulating inventory [1] - Hot-rolled coil demand and production have slightly increased, while inventory continues to decrease, indicating a gradual easing of pressure [1] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor changes in demand dynamics [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Production and Inventory - Rebar weekly production: 199.83 million tons, up 0.28% from the previous week - Rebar factory inventory: 149.13 million tons, up 0.15% - Rebar social inventory: 326.4 million tons, up 23.28% - Total rebar inventory (factory + social): 475.53 million tons, up 23.43% - Weekly consumption (excluding imports and exports): 176.4 million tons, down 9.12% [1] Other Steel Products - Wire rod weekly production: 76.41 million tons, up 1.28% - Wire rod factory inventory: 44.14 million tons, up 0.99% - Hot-rolled coil weekly production: 309.21 million tons, up 3.80% - Hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 77.25 million tons, up 0.61% - Cold-rolled coil weekly production: 88.42 million tons, unchanged - Cold-rolled coil factory inventory: 35.16 million tons, down 2.39% - Medium plate weekly production: 149.30 million tons, down 1.77% - Medium plate factory inventory: 82.1 million tons, up 0.20% [1] Total Production and Inventory - Total weekly production across five major products: 823.17 million tons, up 3.58% - Total factory inventory: 387.78 million tons, down 0.84% - Total social inventory: 890.73 million tons, up 22.27% - Total inventory (factory + social): 1,278.51 million tons, up 21.43% - Total weekly consumption: 801.74 million tons, down 7.78% [1]

Group 1 - The company expects a positive net profit for the year 2025, with an increase of over 50% compared to the previous year [1] - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [1] - The company has communicated with the accounting firm regarding the performance forecast, and there are no discrepancies between the two parties [1] Group 2 - The steel industry is undergoing structural optimization and improvement in efficiency, with the casting pipe market demand stabilizing [1] - Despite supply-demand conflicts, urban renewal and underground comprehensive pipeline renovation are supporting differentiated product demand [1] - The company has implemented measures such as enhancing market expansion, optimizing product structure, and strengthening cost control to achieve significant year-on-year growth in core indicators like metal product volume and total profit [1]

1月27日至28日，由国汽轻量化（江苏）汽车技术有限公司牵头，吉利、长城、凌云等主流车企及产业 链专家参与的"超薄带汽车用马氏体钢认证与推广行业对接交流会"在沙钢集团召开。这不仅是一次技术 研讨，更标志着沙钢"超薄带汽车用马氏体钢"正式启动系统性行业认证，迈入与汽车产业链深度融合的 新阶段。 面对汽车产业向电动化、轻量化、低碳化转型的趋势，车身减重与材料低碳化成为关键课题。国汽轻量 化代表表示，推动沙钢超薄带汽车用钢的认证与产业化，旨在打通从创新材料到先进工艺的全产业链， 为行业提供高性能、绿色低碳的一体化解决方案，助力中国汽车产业构建全球竞争新优势。 与会专家就具体应用场景、成本、耐腐蚀性及碳核算等议题进行了探讨。沙钢集团常务执行董事、副总 裁施一新表示，沙钢将严格遵循汽车行业高标准推进认证，保障材料安全可靠，并愿通过多元合作模 式，与产业链伙伴共同发展。 汽车轻量化技术创新战略联盟常务副秘书长杨洁表示，本次会议是凝聚共识、启动合作的重要节点。沙 钢超薄带技术以其低碳与技术优势，为中国汽车轻量化与低碳化目标提供了有竞争力的材料选择。联盟 期待以此项目为起点，构建技术驱动、合作共赢的产业生态，加速国产创新技术 ...

（来源：河北日报） 《河北省农业产业人才需求目录》以我省粮油、蔬菜、果品、中药材、奶业、畜禽六大农业主导产业为 调查对象，从总体调查样本中归纳提炼了种子繁育员、食品工程技术人员、食用菌生产工、农机驾驶操 作员、中药炮制工、动物疫病防治员、食品加工品控师、农产品经纪人等85个具有典型性、紧缺性和指 导性的人才需求岗位。目录设置了产业、岗位名称、职业代码、学历要求、专业要求、任职能力与要 求、薪资待遇、人才需求强度等指标，供查阅参考。 《河北省现代化钢铁产业人才需求目录》根据职业划分专业技术人员、生产制造人员、生产服务人员和 管理其他人员，从总体调查样本中归纳提炼了智能制造工程技术人员、质量管理工程技术人员、工业互 联网工程技术人员、工业机器人系统运维员、气体深冷分离工、供应链管理师、高级生产计划与调度分 析师等106个具有指导作用的关键岗位。目录设置了职业分类、职业岗位、职业代码、学历要求、专业 要求、任职能力要求、月薪区间、急需紧缺程度等指标。其中，月薪区间基于用人单位报送数据和行业 薪资大数据进行综合测算，采用去极值处理与区间方法，剔除异常值后提取有效样本，反映岗位在河北 省内的普遍薪酬水平。 转自：河北日 ...

Core Insights - The economic leap of Shandong, Beijing, and Dalian reflects a multi-dimensional picture of high-quality development in China's economy, showcasing not only a quantitative leap in economic scale but also the transformation and upgrading of the northern region's economy [1][3] Group 1: Economic Milestones - Shandong is set to become the third province in China and the first in the north to surpass a GDP of 10 trillion yuan by 2025, while Beijing will become the second city after Shanghai to reach a GDP of 5 trillion yuan, and Dalian will be the first city in Northeast China to achieve a GDP of 1 trillion yuan [1][2] - Since 2020, Shandong's economic growth has consistently outpaced the national average, with GDP increasing by three trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] Group 2: Transformation Strategies - Shandong has initiated a significant transformation by focusing on new and old kinetic energy conversion, with high-tech industries expected to account for 55.3% of its industrial output by 2025 [2] - Beijing's economic growth is increasingly driven by technology and high-value-added industries, with R&D investment intensity remaining high at 6% [3] - Dalian is leveraging technological innovation to upgrade its industrial structure, maintaining a stable scale of 400 billion yuan in its green petrochemical industry [3] Group 3: Development Insights - The diverse paths to high-quality development emphasize the importance of localized strategies, as different regions have unique resources and industrial foundations [4] - The transformation and upgrading processes in these regions highlight the need for sustained efforts and strategic determination, indicating that such changes are not achieved overnight [4] - The development of these three cities transcends local limitations, contributing to national strategies and regional collaboration, thus enhancing their economic strength [4] Group 4: Regional Economic Balance - The breakthroughs in economic scale in Shandong, Beijing, and Dalian significantly enhance the overall strength of the northern economy, providing crucial support for balancing the economic disparities between the north and south of China [4]

Core Viewpoint - The independent director system for listed companies in China is undergoing a significant transformation, with new regulations aimed at enhancing shareholder representation and governance structures [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The "Management Measures for Independent Directors of Listed Companies" was officially introduced in August 2023, allowing investor protection agencies to publicly solicit shareholder rights and nominate independent directors [1][2]. - This regulatory change aims to amplify the voices of minority shareholders, particularly those who have historically been silent [1]. Group 2: Practical Implementation - The China Securities Investor Services Center has successfully transitioned the new system from concept to practice, with five successful independent director nominations planned from 2024 to 2026 across various companies and ownership structures [1][3]. - The nomination process has evolved to include "joint action" strategies, expanding the backgrounds of independent directors from industry experience to accounting expertise [1][4]. Group 3: Challenges and Participation - Despite a high approval rate of over 99% for the five nominations, actual participation from investors remains limited, with the highest number of participants in a single case being only 17 [2][9]. - The low engagement reflects a "free-rider" mentality among minority shareholders, indicating a need for improved investor education and participation mechanisms [2][9]. Group 4: Governance Impact - The involvement of the China Securities Investor Services Center is seen as a way to internalize external market supervision, enhancing the independence and representativeness of independent directors [5][6]. - The successful nominations have begun to demonstrate a potential shift in corporate governance, allowing for a more balanced representation of shareholder interests within company boards [4][6]. Group 5: Future Directions - The center aims to continue refining the independent director nomination process while addressing practical challenges such as the 1% shareholding requirement for proposal submissions [8][9]. - Experts suggest that regulatory adjustments may be necessary to facilitate the nomination process and encourage broader participation from minority shareholders [8][9].