Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the price center of cis - butadiene rubber will gradually move up and run strongly. In the medium term, the synthetic rubber fundamentals face significant pressure, and the increase in supply may limit price elasticity and upside potential [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of cis - butadiene rubber was 11,875 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 125,082 lots, up from 121,387 lots; the open interest was 48,591 lots, down 760 lots; the turnover was 750.681 million yuan, up 20.647 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract changed from - 100 to 125; the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 changed from 15 to 35; the prices of North China, East China, and South China's private cis - butadiene decreased by 100, 50, and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton; the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (models 1502 and 1712) remained unchanged; the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 and 100 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of cis - butadiene increased by 2.96 percentage points to 71.3912%; the theoretical full cost and profit of cis - butadiene remained unchanged at 12,388 yuan/ton and - 388 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of July 23, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period. Limited arrival of imported vessels and weather - related delays in some vessel arrivals led to normal consumption of downstream raw material inventory and low sample port inventory [2] - As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.22% from the previous period. Due to macro news and rising raw material costs, the spot and futures markets were expected to run strongly, resulting in a slight decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [2][3]

Group 1 - Hainan Rubber has expanded its international business through overseas acquisitions, becoming the largest natural rubber full industry chain group globally after acquiring Hesheng Agriculture in early 2023 [2] - The company has established a cross-border capital centralized operation center in Hainan Free Trade Port, which acts as a "fund command center" for managing and allocating cross-border funds of its domestic and overseas subsidiaries [2][3] - The need for a centralized operation center arises from Hainan Rubber's global asset allocation, with approximately half of its total assets located overseas, necessitating efficient management of multi-currency transactions [3] Group 2 - In December 2024, Hainan issued implementation opinions to support the development of cross-border capital centralized operation centers, providing various forms of support including tax, finance, and approval processes [4] - As of June 2023, three companies, including Hainan Rubber, have been recognized as cross-border capital centralized operation centers, enhancing their global fund management capabilities and supporting high-quality development [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being "oscillating and bullish" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillating consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.43% to 14,950 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: Recent trade agreements between the US and Japan, upcoming China - US economic and trade meetings from July 27th to 30th in Sweden, and rumors of a tariff agreement between Europe and the US have improved macro factors. This has led to a significant increase in the risk appetite of the commodity market. Although the domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season with large supply pressure, the overall situation is covered by a bullish atmosphere. It is expected that on Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and bullish trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On Wednesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillating consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.58% to 11,930 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the improvement of macro factors has led to an increase in the risk appetite of the commodity market. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, it is expected that on Thursday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and bullish trend [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - Oscillation; Coal and coke - Uptrend; Rolled steel - Oscillation; Glass - Uptrend; Soda ash - Bullish [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50 Index - Rebound; CSI 300 Index - Oscillation; CSI 500 Index - Oscillation; CSI 1000 Index - Oscillation; 2 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 5 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 10 - year Treasury bond - Rebound; Gold - Oscillation; Silver - Bullish operation [3][4][6] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Correction; Log - Correction [6] - **Oil and Fat Industry**: Soybean oil - Oscillation and correction; Palm oil - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed oil - Oscillation and correction [6] - **Feed Industry**: Soybean meal - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed meal - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation and correction [8] - **Agricultural Products Industry**: Live pigs - Oscillation and weakness [8] - **Soft Commodities Industry**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Wait - and - see; PTA - Wait - and - see; MEG - Wait - and - see; PR - Wait - and - see; PF - Wait - and - see [10] 2. Core Views - The black industry is affected by policies such as "anti - involution" and the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation varies by product [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the start of the full - island customs closure operation in Hainan Free Trade Port, and central bank operations. The upward momentum of the market weakens, and risk preferences decline [3][4]. - In the precious metals market, the pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies, as well as geopolitical conflicts, affect the market sentiment [4][6]. - The pulp and log markets show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to correct [6]. - The oil and fat and feed markets are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and trade agreements. After previous rises, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term [6][8]. - The live pig market is affected by factors such as temperature, slaughter enterprise procurement, and supply - demand relationship. The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may also weaken [8]. - The rubber market is affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and cost. Most products are in a wait - and - see state [10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume increases, and the supply is still abundant. In the short term, the fundamentals are acceptable, but in the medium and long term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. It follows the trend of finished products, and attention should be paid to the support at 800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: The expectation of anti - involution policies and supply - side policies boosts market sentiment. After the second price increase, the cost of coke still has pressure, and the market's bullish expectation is enhanced. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. - **Rolled Steel (Thread Steel)**: The "anti - involution" policy stimulates supply - side sentiment, but the overall demand is weak. In the short term, it is supported by policies, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" trading may continue. The demand side has weakening real demand but strong speculative demand. The supply side has increasing production pressure. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - **Soda Ash**: It is bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the real demand and supply - side trends [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market upward momentum weakens, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in stock index futures [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [3][4]. - **Precious Metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. In the short term, it is affected by the Fed's policies and geopolitical factors. Silver is bullish [4][6]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The paper industry has low profitability and high inventory pressure, and pulp prices are expected to correct [6]. - **Log**: The supply pressure is not large, but the anti - involution sentiment weakens, and log prices are expected to correct [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Although supported by the bio - diesel expectation, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [6]. Feed Industry - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2, Soybean No. 1**: Affected by factors such as US soybean production, inventory, and trade agreements, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [8]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live Pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may weaken due to factors such as supply increase and demand suppression by high temperatures [8]. Soft Commodities Industry - **Rubber**: Affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory, prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Most products in the polyester industry are affected by supply - demand and cost factors and are in a wait - and - see state [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits [2]. - For methanol, the current market is significantly driven by news, with increased volatility and higher operational difficulty. It is advisable to observe more and act less. The subsequent domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [4]. - Regarding urea, the domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also constrained by high supply. Currently, the valuation of urea is neutral to low, and it is more inclined to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view should be maintained, and positions should be built at an appropriate time. In the short term, due to the large increase, it is necessary to guard against the risk of a pullback. A neutral approach with quick entry and exit is recommended [11]. - For PVC, the pessimistic fundamental expectations have improved due to the postponement of Indian anti - dumping, but there are still pressures on supply - demand and valuation. In the short term, the price is strong under the stimulation of anti - dumping postponement and anti - involution sentiment, and the risk of sentiment reversal should be guarded against [13]. - For benzene, the short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price of benzene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction. The price of polyethylene is expected to remain in a downward oscillation [18]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the price of polypropylene in July is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA maintenance season is also over, with a relatively high load level. The processing fee has been repaired, and the inventory level is low. In the short term, the negative feedback pressure from the polyester and terminal sectors is small, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil [21][23]. - For PTA, in the subsequent period, the supply side is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the room for PTA processing fee repair is limited. The demand side is under continuous pressure during the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation has changed from strong to weak, but in the short term, the valuation has upward support due to lower - than - expected imports and domestic plant accidents [25]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, 2025, the front - month WTI crude oil futures closed down $0.94, or 1.42%, at $65.42; the front - month Brent crude oil futures closed unchanged at $68.67; the front - month INE crude oil futures closed up 5.70 yuan, or 1.11%, at 520.4 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: According to the US EIA weekly data, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.17 million barrels to 418.99 million barrels, a 0.75% decrease; SPR inventories increased by 0.20 million barrels to 402.50 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.74 million barrels to 231.13 million barrels, a 0.75% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 2.93 million barrels to 109.90 million barrels, a 2.74% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.09 million barrels to 20.23 million barrels, a 0.47% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.69 million barrels to 45.50 million barrels, a 1.54% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 23, the 09 contract fell 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of +6 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate continued to decline, and the profit decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. Overseas plant operating rates returned to medium - high levels, and the market's reaction to overseas supply disruptions ended, with market fluctuations narrowing. The port olefin load increased this week, while the traditional demand was in the off - season, with the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid declining and those of chlorides and MTBE increasing. Overall, the demand was weak. After the methanol price decline, the downstream profit was repaired but remained at a relatively low level. The methanol spot valuation was still high, and the upside was limited in the off - season [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +3 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level, with the cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The compound fertilizer operating rate bottomed out and rebounded, entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, and the subsequent operating rate will continue to increase, supporting the demand for urea. The export container collection continued, and the port inventory continued to rise. The subsequent demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU showed a sideways movement after continuous increases, and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market weakened [8]. - **Industry Data**: As of July 17, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.08%, up 0.54 percentage points from the previous week and 12.19 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 75.62%, up 3.07 percentage points from the previous week and 3.12 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of July 13, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.295 million tons, a 0.18 - million - ton increase, or a 0.14% increase; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 797,000 tons, a 0.8% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 498,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease. As of July 20, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 505,600 (-19,000) tons [9][10]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,600 (-100) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,795 (-10) dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,800 (-5) dollars; butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9,650 (-50) yuan; and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11,600 (-100) yuan [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PVC09 contract fell 109 yuan to 5,151 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5,070 (-10) yuan/ton, the basis was -81 (+99) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was -118 (-4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost and Operating Rates**: The cost side remained stable, with the calcium carbide price in Wuhai at 2,250 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price at 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price at 820 (0) dollars/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.6%, a 0.6% increase; the calcium carbide method operating rate was 79.7%, a 0.5% increase; the ethylene method operating rate was 72%, a 0.9% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 40.1%, a 1% decrease. The in - plant inventory was 368,000 (-14,000) tons, and the social inventory was 657,000 (+34,000) tons [13]. Benzene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of benzene decreased, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large room for upward repair [15][16]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side: the operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was abundant. The supply side: the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the benzene operating rate continued to rise. The benzene port inventory increased significantly. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products increased [16]. Polyolefin Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The black sector showed a pull - back after a rise, and the cost side still provided support. The polyethylene spot price increased, and the PE valuation had limited downward space [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The trader inventory fluctuated at a high level, weakening the price support. In the seasonal off - season, the agricultural film orders were at a low level and fluctuated, and the overall operating rate decreased. In July, the ethylene plant of Huizhou ExxonMobil was put into operation, and the polyethylene price was expected to remain in a downward oscillation [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate was expected to gradually recover, with the propylene supply gradually returning [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In the demand side, the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the price of polypropylene in July was expected to be bearish [19]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PX09 contract fell 26 yuan to 6,860 yuan, the PX CFR fell 1 dollar to 842 dollars, the basis was 71 (+14) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 84 (-12) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PX load in China was 81.1%, a 0.2% decrease; the Asian load was 73.6%, unchanged. In terms of plants, Shenghong reduced its load due to a problem with the upstream plant, the overseas plant in Vietnam resumed operation, and Tianjin Petrochemical planned to shut down. The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged. In July, South Korea exported 238,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days, a 5,000 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of May was 4.346 million tons, a 165,000 - ton decrease from the previous month [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PTA09 contract fell 10 yuan to 4,784 yuan, the East China spot price rose 35 yuan to 4,810 yuan, the basis was 2 (0) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 4 (-6) yuan [24]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged. The downstream load was 88.3%, a 0.5% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 61%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 56%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 11 was 2.172 million tons, a 38,000 - ton increase [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the EG09 contract fell 11 yuan to 4,436 yuan, the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4,501 yuan, the basis was 62 (+2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 0 (+6) yuan [25]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side: the ethylene glycol load was 66.2%, a 1.4% decrease, with the synthetic gas - based load at 70.2%, a 2.9% decrease, and the ethylene - based load at 63.8%, a 0.4% decrease. The downstream load was 88.3%, a 0.5% decrease. The expected import arrival was 157,000 tons, and the departure from East China on July 22 was 5,000 tons, with the inventory out - flow increasing. The port inventory was 533,000 tons, a 20,000 - ton decrease [25].

Core Insights - Zeon and Yokohama Rubber are collaborating to construct a pilot plant for bio-based butadiene, which is set to begin production in 2026 and achieve commercialization by 2034 [1][8] - Butadiene is the most widely used rubber raw material globally, serving as a core monomer for various synthetic rubbers such as Styrene-Butadiene Rubber (SBR) and Polybutadiene Rubber (BR) [2][3] - The project represents a significant breakthrough for Japan in the non-petroleum-based synthetic rubber sector, aiming to accelerate the commercialization of bio-based elastomers through cross-industry collaboration [7] Industry Overview - Butadiene is essential for producing SBR and BR, with global capacities of 6.8 million tons/year for SBR and 5.2 million tons/year for BR, primarily used in automotive tires [3] - The shift towards bio-based butadiene is driven by the need for carbon reduction in the rubber industry, with many leading synthetic rubber and tire companies exploring bio-based alternatives using ethanol as a feedstock [2][4] Technological Approaches - Two main technological routes are being pursued for the production of bio-based butadiene: - Route 1: Efficient synthesis of butadiene from ethanol through chemical catalysis, in collaboration with AIST, facing challenges such as catalyst carbon deposition and cost optimization of high-purity ethanol [4] - Route 2: Direct synthesis from sugars or butanediol using enzyme catalysis or microbial metabolism, which is currently limited to laboratory or small-scale trials due to challenges in selectivity and production efficiency [5] Project Goals and Timeline - The pilot facility will validate the effectiveness of new high-efficiency catalysts for converting bio-based ethanol into butadiene, with Zeon planning to use the produced butadiene for prototype polybutadiene rubber products [6] - The project aims to complete process validation by 2030 and achieve industrialization by 2034, providing innovative solutions to reduce petroleum dependency in the global tire industry and support carbon neutrality goals [8] Related Industry Developments - Other companies, such as Trinseo and Michelin, are also investing in bio-based butadiene production, with projects aimed at commercializing the use of bioethanol for butadiene production [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume Metrics**: The closing price of the main contract was 11,875, a daily decrease of 225 and a weekly increase of 350; the position volume was 48,591, a daily decrease of 760 and a weekly increase of 27,888; the trading volume was 125,082, a daily increase (data not fully provided) and a weekly increase of 67,633; the warehouse receipt quantity was 9,840, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly increase of 140; the virtual - real ratio was 24.69, a daily increase of 0 and a weekly increase of 14 [4]. - **Basis and Spread Metrics**: The butadiene basis was 25, a daily increase of 125 and a weekly increase of 50; the butadiene basis (two - oil) was 125, a daily increase of 225 and a weekly decrease of 50; the styrene - butadiene basis was 425, a daily increase of 225 and a weekly increase of 50; the 8 - 9 month spread was 35, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly decrease of 40; the 9 - 10 month spread was 20, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 15 [4]. - **Market Price Metrics**: The Shandong market price was 11,900, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly increase of 400; the Transfar market price was 11,750, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly increase of 250; the Qilu ex - factory price was 12,000, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 300; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, with no daily change and a weekly increase (data not fully provided); CFR Southeast Asia was 1,730, with no daily and weekly change [4]. - **Profit Metrics**: The spot processing profit was - 194, a daily increase of 2 and a weekly decrease of 8; the on - disk processing profit was - 219, a daily decrease of 123 and a weekly decrease of 58; the import profit was - 85,824, a daily decrease of 9 and a weekly decrease of 1,981; the export profit was - 609, a daily increase of 78 and a weekly decrease of 174 [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price Metrics**: The Shandong market price was 9,700, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly increase of 400; the Jiangsu market price was 9,600, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 250; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,600, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 300; CFR China was 1,100, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 30 [4]. - **Profit Metrics**: The carbon - four extraction profit was N/A (previous value was 2,551); the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 716, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 460; the import profit was N/A (previous value was 986), a daily decrease of 447 and a weekly increase of 11; the export profit was - 1,476, a daily increase of 37 and a weekly decrease of 365 [4]. Downstream Products - **Profit Metrics**: The butadiene production profit was - 219, a daily decrease of 123 and a weekly decrease of 58; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 575, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 75; the ABS production profit data was N/A; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 590, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 150 [4]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 33,586, a daily increase of 705 and a weekly decrease of 27,383; the NR - BR spread was - 35,816, a daily increase of 680 and a weekly decrease of 27,603; the Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 2,700, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 100; the 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 2,550, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 [4]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 250, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,100, with no daily and weekly change [4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for RU and NR are cautiously bullish, and for BR is also cautiously bullish [4][6] Group 2: Core Views - The market atmosphere is warm, driving the improvement of demand expectations, and the rubber price continues the rebound trend. The profit of domestic latex is still better than that of making dry rubber from glue, and the increase of full latex is slow due to rainfall interference in domestic main producing areas. The raw material price strongly supports the domestic rubber price. The supply - side disturbances and the warm macro - atmosphere lead to the recent rebound of rubber prices. In the short term, the supply recovery pressure is limited, and the import pressure in China has decreased. The downstream semi - steel tire start - up rate has rebounded, but the terminal demand has no bright spots. Based on the good macro - atmosphere and short - term reduction of supply pressure, it is expected that the rubber price will continue the rebound trend, and the substantial improvement of the demand side should be focused on later [4][5] - For BR, the supply shows a month - on - month recovery trend, and the downstream tire factory start - up rate has rebounded after the previous maintenance, but it is difficult to continue to rise later. The supply pressure of upstream butadiene raw materials has decreased, and it is expected to maintain a strong operation, providing strong cost support for BR. The strong natural rubber makes the price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber continue to expand, and the downstream replacement demand also supports BR [6] Group 3: Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - RU main contract closed at 15,060 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR main contract at 12,855 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton. Yunnan - produced full latex in Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] Import and Export Data - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47%. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with the same period in 2024. In June, the export volume increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] Automobile Sales Data - In June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Group 4: Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On July 22, 2025, RU basis was - 60 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 410 yuan/ton (+ 85), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,633 yuan/ton (+ 179.38), NR basis was 124.00 yuan/ton (- 35.00); full latex was 15,000 yuan/ton (+ 150), mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton (+ 80), 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 50). STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (+ 20), the spread between full latex and 3L was 150 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,550 yuan/ton (+ 80) [3] - **Raw Materials**: Thai smoked sheet was 66.57 baht/kg (- 0.05), Thai glue was 54.80 baht/kg (+ 0.30), Thai cup lump was 49.75 baht/kg (+ 0.45), the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.05 baht/kg (- 0.15) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+ 0.87%), and that of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+ 2.34%) [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+ 1,811.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (- 1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (- 2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (- 303) [3] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Spot and Spread**: On July 22, 2025, BR basis was - 200 yuan/ton (- 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 12,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 100), Shandong private - owned butadiene rubber was 11,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 840 yuan/ton (- 164) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.32% (- 1.22%) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+ 330), and the enterprise inventory of butadiene rubber was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3] Group 5: Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. For BR, also be cautiously bullish [4][6]

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Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View In the short term, rubber prices continue to rebound due to macro - sentiment and rainfall in the producing areas. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being and pay attention to the improvement of raw material supply after the weather in the main producing areas gets better [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 22, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous day. The basis of whole - latex rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 110, down 144.44%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The price of cup rubber in the international market was 49.30 Thai baht/kg, up 1.44%. The price of raw materials in Hainan also increased to varying degrees [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 795 yuan/ton, down 3.92%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 125 yuan/ton, down 38.89%; the 5 - 9 spread was 920 yuan/ton, up 7.60% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's rubber production was 272,200 tons, up 157.52% from the previous month; Indonesia's production was 200,300 tons, up 3.19%; India's production was 47,700 tons, up 5.07%; China's production was 97,000 tons, up 38,900 tons from the previous month. The weekly starting rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in May was 102.749 million pieces, up 0.74%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, down 2.44%. The total import volume of natural rubber was 463,400 tons, up 2.21% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory was 636,383 tons, up 0.63%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 36,691 tons, down 0.82%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed to varying degrees [2]. Group 2: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 22, 2025, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon opened high and closed higher, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. Driven by the rise in coal prices and the smooth transmission of price increases in the silicon - based photovoltaic industry chain, there may still be room for price increases in the future. However, as the delivery month approaches, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 46,000 yuan/ton and 43,000 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of N - type material (average price) was - 3,105 yuan/ton, down 1013.24%. The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were stable, while the average price of Topcon components (distributed) and N - type 210mm components (for centralized projects) increased slightly [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The price of the PS2506 contract was 49,105 yuan/ton, up 7.54%. The spreads between different contracts also changed to varying degrees, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increasing by 15.56% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production was 11.10 GM, down 3.48%; the polysilicon production was 23,000 tons, up 0.88%. Monthly, the polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, up 5.10%; the import volume of polysilicon was 11,000 tons, up 16.59%; the export volume was 22,000 tons, up 5.96%. The silicon wafer production was 58.84 GM, up 1.34%; the import volume was 6,000 tons, down 15.41%; the export volume was 61,000 tons, up 11.37% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, down 9.78%; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02 CM, down 11.64%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,780 hands [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 22, 2025, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon opened high and closed higher, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. Driven by coal price increases and the smooth transmission of price increases in the silicon - based photovoltaic industry chain, the price of industrial silicon may continue to rise. However, attention should be paid to the inventory pressure caused by the decline in silicone demand. For the 09 contract with a large open interest, it is recommended to control positions and manage risks [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 22, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 2.11%. The basis of different grades of industrial silicon changed significantly, such as the basis of SI4210 industrial silicon (benchmark) being - 505 yuan/ton, down 62.90% [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, down 25.00%; the 2509 - 2510 spread was 85 yuan/ton, up 21.43%; the 2510 - 2511 spread was 60 yuan/ton, down 25.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread was - 320 yuan/ton, down 52.38%; the 2512 - 2601 spread was 85 yuan/ton, up 70.00% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly, the national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, down 12.10%; Xinjiang's production was 167,500 tons, down 20.55%; Yunnan's production was 13,500 tons, up 9.35%; Sichuan's production was 11,300 tons, up 145.65%. The national industrial silicon starting rate was 51.23%, down 11.37%. The production of silicone DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased, and the industrial silicon export volume was 60,500 tons, up 1.64% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 123,600 tons, down 0.24%; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory was 27,300 tons, up 0.37%; the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory was 23,000 tons, down 1.29%. The social inventory was 547,000 tons, down 0.73%; the warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,300 tons, down 0.18%; the non - warehouse - receipt inventory was 296,700 tons, down 1.19% [5]. Group 4: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 22, the log futures first rose and then fell. In the short term, due to the high - temperature season being the off - season for log demand and the decline in spot prices, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. One can consider buying on dips. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and policy expectations [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On July 22, the price of log 2507 was 825 yuan/m³, up 0.61%; the price of log 2509 was 838 yuan/m³, unchanged; the price of log 2511 was 842 yuan/m³, down 0.30%; the price of log 2601 was 853 yuan/m³, down 0.93%. The 9 - 11 spread was - 4 yuan/m³, up 2.5; the 9 - 1 spread was - 15 yuan/m³, up 8. The basis of the 09 contract was - 98 yuan/m³, unchanged. The spot prices of logs in major ports remained stable [6]. - **Supply**: In June, the port shipping volume was 1.76 million m³, up 2.12%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 53, down 8.62% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 3.29 million m³, up 2.17% from July 11. The inventory in Shandong increased by 2.01%, while the inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 0.67% [6]. - **Demand**: As of July 18, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 62,400 m³, up 6.12% from July 11. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 5%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 25% [6]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The market sentiment was boosted by coal - related information, and the futures prices of glass and soda ash hit the daily limit. For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is still in excess, and there is pressure on the demand side in the second half of the year. For glass, although the spot market has improved, it is currently in the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. In the short term, the market fluctuates greatly due to policy and news, and risk avoidance should be noted [7]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: On July 22, the price of glass in North China was 1,200 yuan/ton, up 1.69%; in East China, it was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1,140 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; in South China, it was 1,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of glass 2505 was 1,317 yuan/ton, up 6.21%; the price of glass 2509 was 1,173 yuan/ton, up 8.51%. The 05 basis was - 117 yuan/ton, down 95.00% [7]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: The price of soda ash in North China was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China, it was 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 1,020 yuan/ton, up 4.08%. The price of soda ash 2505 was 1,390 yuan/ton, up 6.43%; the price of soda ash 2509 was 1,295 yuan/ton, up 6.05%. The 05 basis was - 40 yuan/ton, down 190.91% [7]. - **Supply**: The soda ash starting rate was 84.10%, up 3.42%; the weekly soda ash production was 733,200 tons, up 3.41%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 157,800 tons, down 0.38%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 91,840 tons, down 2.70% [7]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory was 64.939 million heavy boxes, down 3.22%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 1.9056 million tons, up 2.26%; the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory was 246,600 tons, up 3.61%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory was 23.4, up 11.34% [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points; the growth rate of construction area was - 33.33%, a decrease of 7.56 percentage points; the growth rate of completion area was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67 percentage points; the growth rate of sales area was - 1.55%, an increase of 12.13 percentage points [7].