Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of peanuts is still low, and downstream demand remains weak. Peanut prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short term. The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mills from pressing is acceptable. The new - season peanut production is expected to increase, and the planting cost will decrease. Peanut futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly [5][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 7840, down 10 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 25 (up 38.89%) and an open interest of 438 (down 0.45%); PK510 closed at 7800, unchanged, with a trading volume of 6,694 (down 53.37%) and an open interest of 14,338 (down 20.70%); PK601 closed at 7792, down 18 (-0.23%), with a trading volume of 9,851 (down 18.96%) and an open interest of 40,281 (up 5.39%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In the spot market, the price of peanuts in Henan decreased, while that in the Northeast increased. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 3.9 yuan/jin, stable; that in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.15 yuan/jin, up 0.2 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.3 - 4.35 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of peanuts in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable. The price of imported Sudan refined new peanuts was 8150 yuan/ton, and that of Senegalese oil - peanuts was 7600 - 7800 yuan/ton, stable. The price of peanut oil was stable, with domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil at 14800 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao was 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the 48 - protein peanut meal was 3260 yuan/ton [5][9]. - **Price Difference**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 48, down 8; the PK04 - PK10 spread was 40, down 10; the PK10 - PK01 spread was 8, up 18 [3]. 2. Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan decreased, while that in the Northeast increased. It is expected that the peanut spot price will be relatively stable in the short term. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, and the mainstream transaction price before the stop was 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton, with the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 8050 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Peanut 11 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. After stabilizing, one can try to go long on Peanut 05 [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: Wait and see [13]. - **Options**: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [14]. 4. Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between Peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between Peanut 1 - 4 contracts [16][22][25].

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract for rapeseed meal futures opening at 2533.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of approximately 2.23% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future of rapeseed meal prices, with Donghai Futures noting high inventory pressures but potential for upward movement due to low rapeseed stocks and unchanged policy expectations [1] - Ruida Futures highlights reduced supply pressure from lower rapeseed arrivals and increased seasonal demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture, while also noting the impact of trade negotiations between China and Canada on rapeseed imports [1] Group 2 - The upcoming round of talks between China and the US is crucial, with the USDA report indicating a slight reduction in US soybean yield but an increase in harvested area, leading to a neutral to slightly bearish outlook [2] - Domestic soybean meal remains in a "weak reality, strong expectation" scenario, with short-term supply limiting price increases, suggesting a wide fluctuation in soybean and rapeseed meal prices [2] - Recommendations for soybean meal trading include a support level reference between 2900-3000 CNY [2]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in China on September 12 was 13.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg week-on-week, marking a new low for the year [1][2] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter increased slightly to 128.32 kg as of the week ending September 11, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09 kg [1][2] - Short-term forecasts indicate an increase in pig supply from sample enterprises, with expected increases of 1.29%, 4.11%, and 3.92% respectively, leading to continued pressure on pig prices [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Recent policies emphasize capacity regulation, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity in the industry, potentially raising the long-term price level of pigs [3] - Low-cost, high-quality pig farming companies are anticipated to gain excess returns as the industry adjusts [3] Group 3: Beef Industry - The price of calves and fattening bulls remained stable, with prices at 32.44 yuan/kg and 25.97 yuan/kg respectively as of September 12, showing a year-to-date increase of 35% and 10% [4] - The beef market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, with a potential upward cycle anticipated between 2026 and 2027 [4] Group 4: Dairy Industry - Raw milk prices have been in a downward trend since late 2021, reaching 3.03 yuan/kg as of September 5, 2025, a cumulative decline of 31% from peak levels [5] - The ongoing losses in the dairy industry are leading to a reduction in production capacity, which may stabilize raw milk prices in the future [5] Group 5: Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broilers decreased to 7.02 yuan/kg as of September 12, with a week-on-week decline of 0.20 yuan/kg due to increased supply [6] - Egg prices rebounded to an average of 7.15 yuan/kg from September 8-12, with a week-on-week increase of 0.62 yuan/kg, driven by pre-festival stocking [6] Group 6: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures and spot prices showed mixed trends, with futures at 3079 yuan/ton and spot prices at 3060 yuan/ton as of September 12 [7] - The USDA's supply and demand report slightly adjusted the forecast for U.S. soybean planting area and ending stocks, indicating ongoing market dynamics [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main contract price of soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuated and declined this week due to obstacles in the transfer of US soybean oil biodiesel obligations and high inventory and slow sales of domestic oils. The USDA supply - demand report in September was bearish, but the market still expected a future reduction in yield per unit. The domestic soybean oil market remains in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The bullish view on soybean oil in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions in the Y2601 contract, with support at 8300 - 8310 and resistance at 8550 - 8600 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed are expected to reduce Canadian rapeseed procurement. Increased imports from Russia/Dubai and Australia can partially offset the supply. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons. With the extension of the anti - dumping investigation, there is still uncertainty in Canadian rapeseed trade policies. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased week - on - week. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It should be treated with a sideways view, with support at 9500 - 9600 and resistance at 9998 - 10333 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil continued its seasonal inventory build - up, with the inventory at the end of August increasing by 4.18% month - on - month to 2.2025 million tons. The production from September 1 - 10 decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, and the expected increase in production in September - October is slowing. The continuous decline of US soybean oil exerts a price - comparison pressure on palm oil. However, due to the pre - festival stocking demand in India, the callback space is relatively limited. The price is expected to move sideways, with support at 9074 - 9100 and resistance at 9700 - 9736 [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The price of soybean meal was strong this week. Due to the severe Sino - US trade situation, the price of domestic soybean meal remained firm. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main contract of soybean meal, with support at 2980 - 3000 and resistance at 3180 - 3200 yuan/ton. The No. 11 contract of Bean No. 2 is expected to be strong with a sideways trend, and it is advisable to hold long positions, with support at 3600 - 3630 and resistance at 3950 - 4000 [3][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed are expected to reduce imports. Increased imports from other regions can partially offset the supply. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase. With the extension of the anti - dumping investigation, there is uncertainty in trade policies. Domestic rapeseed meal has a de - stocking expectation. It should be treated with a sideways view, with support at 2400 - 2438 and resistance at 2632 - 2698 [4][7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, Soybean No. 1 first declined and then rose, showing an overall decline. Early - maturing soybeans in the Northeast market are sporadically on the market, but the purchase volume is small and the price is not representative. As new grains are listed on a large scale, the price of new - season soybeans is expected to become clear. It is not recommended to chase long positions in Soybean No. 1, and it is advisable to short after stabilization. The No. 11 contract should pay attention to the pressure level at 4000 - 4050 yuan/ton and the support level at 3850 - 3900 yuan/ton [7]. - **Peanuts**: The planting area of new - season peanuts nationwide increased by 4.01% year - on - year. Although drought in some areas may affect local yields, there is an overall expectation of increased production. The cost of peanut planting in the Northeast and Henan has decreased year - on - year. The expected increase in production and the decline in planting cost put pressure on the futures price. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season peanuts, the seasonal supply pressure still exists. However, the futures price has partially reflected the increase in production expectation. The short - term decline has slowed down due to the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. It is recommended to trade sideways with a light short position. The No. 11 contract has support at 7500 - 7510 and resistance at 8020 - 8162 [7]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: This week, the futures prices of corn and corn starch first rose and then fell. In the overseas market, the high - yield of South American corn has been realized, and the pressure of concentrated listing is being released. Although the excellent rate of US corn has slightly decreased and there are concerns about dry weather and pests, the expectation of a good harvest remains unchanged. In the domestic market, there is a game between the purchasing enthusiasm due to low channel inventory and seasonal pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. For the No. 11 contract of corn, the support range is 2100 - 2120, and the resistance range is 2240 - 2250. For the No. 11 contract of corn starch, the support range is 2400 - 2420, and the resistance range is 2580 - 2590 [8]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs declined weakly over the weekend. The pig - grain ratio has quickly fallen below 6:1, and the breeding profit has deteriorated significantly. Under the "anti - involution" atmosphere of restricting production capacity, the near - term slaughter has increased. It is recommended that cautious investors hold anti - spread positions by shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts, while aggressive investors can hold long positions in the 2511 or 2601 contracts and buy the 2605 contract on dips in the medium term [8][9]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs was strong over the weekend, and some areas continued to rebound. There are concerns about high inventory, which puts pressure on the near - term spot. The seasonal peak season in September needs further confirmation. The 10 - contract lags behind the spot price increase due to being in the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival. It is recommended that aggressive investors buy the 10 - or 11 - contract on dips, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between the 11 - and 1 - month contracts [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Sector and Variety Analysis**: Different sectors and varieties have different market logics, supply - demand situations, support and resistance levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, in the oilseed sector, Soybean No. 11 is expected to decline with a sideways trend, and it is advisable to wait and see; in the protein sector, the No. 01 contract of soybean meal is expected to be strong with a sideways trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions [12]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy - **Basis Data**: The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors such as oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [13][14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The daily data table shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, including arrival premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF arrival prices, arrival - duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data table presents the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the port inventory of soybeans, the oil - mill inventory of soybean meal, and the coastal - oil - factory inventory of rapeseeds [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Corn and Corn Starch Data**: The table shows the current values, week - on - week changes, and year - on - year changes of indicators such as the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the inventory of corn in deep - processing enterprises, the operating rate of starch enterprises, and the inventory of starch enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Pig Market Data**: It includes the spot prices, cost, profit, slaughter data, and other key weekly data of the pig market, such as the average weekly prices of二元 sows, 7KG outer - ternary piglets, and outer - ternary pigs [19]. - **Egg Market Data**: It provides data on the supply, demand, profit, and related spot prices of the egg market, such as the proportion of large, medium, and small eggs, the production rate, and the inventory in the production and circulation links [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Pigs and Eggs)**: The charts track the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and other related prices of pigs and eggs [22][24][25][29]. - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: The charts show the monthly production, export volume, inventory, and other data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the import profit, import volume, and domestic inventory of palm oil [33][34][36]. - **Soybean Oil**: The charts display the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and crushing profit in the US, as well as the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, inventory, and trading volume [39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The charts present the arrival and shipment volumes of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the peanut crushing profit, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in pressing plants [46][48]. - **Feed Sector** - **Corn**: The charts track the spot price, futures closing price, basis, inventory, import volume, and consumption of corn, as well as the processing profit of corn ethanol in different regions [50][52][54]. - **Corn Starch**: The charts show the spot price, futures closing price, basis, operating rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch enterprises [57][59][60]. - **Rapeseed**: The charts display the spot prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the basis, inventory, and pressing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills [62][64][66]. - **Soybean Meal**: The charts show the flowering and pod - setting rates of US soybeans, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [70][71]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - **Volatility and Option Data**: The report provides the historical volatility of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [73][77][80]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The report shows the warehouse receipt data of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indices [83][84][89]

农产品早报 2025-09-15 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 【重要资讯】 周五夜盘因月报小幅调高美豆产量 CBOT 大豆盘中快速下跌，收盘前又修复跌幅，市场解读为已有预期。 周末国内豆粕现货稳定，上周国内豆粕成交尚可，提货处于高位，下游库存天数上升 0.42 天至 9.22 天。 据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 236 万吨，本周预计压榨 238 万吨。 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨量正常，8 月因干旱大豆优良率下滑，但 USDA 仅下调 0.1 蒲式耳/英亩单产，且 收割面积上调 20 万英亩。巴西方面，升贴水回落后震荡反弹。总体来看，进口大豆成本受到美豆低估 值、中美贸易关系及巴西种植季节交 ...

商 品 研 2025 年 09 月 15 日 究 豆粕：美豆偏强，连粕或反弹 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3959 | +33（+0.84%） | 3956 | +0（+0.00%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3070 | +4（+0.13%） | 3066 -21 | （-0.68%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1045.25 | +11.75（+1.14%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 288.3 | +0.6（+0.21%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3060～3090， 较昨+10至+20； M2601+0， 持平； | 现货M2601-60， 10-1月M2601+40/+50/+80， | 持平； 9月 ...

2025年09月15日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 15 日 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：美豆油获得支撑，棕榈低多为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆收涨，关注中美谈判结果 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆偏强，连粕或反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡为主 | 7 | | 棉花：注意新棉收购情况 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货旺季将过，库存仍高 | 10 | | 生猪：现货弱势难改，政策偏强 | 11 | | 花生：关注新花生上市 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 品 研 究 棕榈油：美豆油获得支撑，棕榈低多为主 豆油：美豆收涨，关注中美谈判结果 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价（夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

北京时间9月15日，芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货价格继续上行，今日开盘报52.06美分/磅，现报 每吨52.40美分/磅，涨幅0.54%，盘中最高触及52.41美分/磅，最低下探52.06美分/磅。 更新时间： 豆油期货行情回顾： 9月12日芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美豆油 51.58 52.52 51.34 52.14 1.26% 【豆油市场消息速递】 9月12日，大商所豆油期货仓单24544手，环比上个交易日持平。 9月12日，阿根廷豆油(10月船期)C&F价格1145美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调12美元/吨；阿根廷豆油 (12月船期)C&F价格1148美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调10美元/吨。 9月12日：全国一级豆油成交量5500吨，环比上个交易日减少71.05%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the domestic oilseed market have led to a rise in the price spread between canola oil and soybean oil, as well as between canola oil and palm oil, indicating a strong support from traders to maintain prices [1] Price Spread Summary - On September 11, the price spread between January canola oil and soybean oil reached 1557 CNY/ton, an increase of 43 CNY/ton from the previous day and a weekly increase of 174 CNY/ton [1] - The price spread between canola oil and palm oil was 563 CNY/ton, which is up by 37 CNY/ton from the previous day and a weekly increase of 214 CNY/ton [1]

新华财经纽约9月12日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价12日全线上涨。 报告预计2025-2026年度美国期末大豆库存为3亿蒲式耳，高于8月预测的2.9亿蒲式耳；2025-2026年度全 球大豆期末库存为1.24亿吨，稍低于8月预测的1.249亿吨。 报告将美国小麦出口额上调2500万蒲式耳，至9亿蒲式耳。报告预计2025年俄罗斯小麦产量增加150万 吨，至8500万吨；澳大利亚小麦产量将增加350万吨；欧洲小麦产量将增加190万吨，达到10年来的最高 水平1.4亿吨。 报告预测全球出口国小麦总产量将达到创纪录的4.065亿吨，较8月份增加900万吨，比去年同期增加近 2000万吨。 报告预测2025-2026年度美国期末小麦库存为8.44亿蒲式耳，低于8月预测的8.69亿蒲式耳；2025-2026年 度全球小麦期末库存为2.64亿吨，高于8月预测的2.601亿吨。 天气方面，密西西比河以西地区2025年生长季近乎理想的气候条件使得美国大豆单产维持在53蒲式耳之 上，玉米单产维持在186蒲式耳之上。收割季节即将到来，中国能否恢复对美需求将成为9月下旬的焦 点。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场 ...