Core Viewpoint - Baofeng Energy's stock price has been experiencing fluctuations and a decline since March 16, with a current closing price of 30.35 yuan, down 3.22% [1] Group 1: Analyst Ratings - Guosen Securities analysts Yang Lin and Yu Shuangyu maintained an "outperform" rating for Baofeng Energy, highlighting stable growth in performance by 2025 and increased competitiveness with rising oil prices [1] - Guojin Securities analysts Chen Yi and Yang Yixing also maintained a "buy" rating, echoing the sentiment of stable growth in 2025 and enhanced competitiveness due to oil price increases [1] -招商证券 analysts Zhou Zheng and Lian Ying recommended a "strong buy" rating, attributing significant year-on-year performance growth to geopolitical influences and substantial product price increases [1] - Huatai Securities analysts Zhuang Tingzhou and Zhang Xiong maintained a "buy" rating, suggesting that the recovery in oil prices is likely to support a rebound in the coal-to-olefins sector [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The urea price is expected to oscillate within the range of 1810 - 1940 yuan/ton due to complex and changeable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, high - volatility of international crude oil, temporary shutdown of some urea production facilities in the Middle East, cautious high - price purchasing by middle and downstream, and the expected release of reserve supplies after the export is halted [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 dropped by 20 yuan to 1864 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area was 1860 yuan/ton. The long - position decreased by 8408 lots to 268,000 lots, and the short - position decreased by 12,492 lots to 310,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 209,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than the previous working day and 12,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 88.9%, 1.2% higher than 87.7% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 808,900 tons, 148,000 tons less than the previous period, a 15.5% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 167,000 tons, a 22,000 - ton month - on - month decrease [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 49.9%, a 4.4% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 53.3%, a 3.9% month - on - month increase [1] - Tender: India's RCF urea import tender, with the latest shipping date on March 31st, received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - Export: In January 2026, urea exports were 307,900 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month increase; the export average price was 397.50 dollars/ton, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. In February 2026, urea exports were

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The life sciences sector is experiencing a surge in foundational research, driven by a global biotechnology revolution that offers innovative solutions to major challenges such as health, climate change, energy security, and food security. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Bioeconomy," indicating a trillion-yuan market opportunity in the bioeconomy [2][3] - The synthetic biology index, which includes 60 listed companies involved in synthetic biology and related technologies, has shown a slight decline of 0.49% to 1183.00, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.89 percentage points and underperforming the ChiNext Index by 1.76 percentage points during the week of March 16-20, 2026 [2][14] Market Dynamics - The synthetic biology sector's stock performance aligns with expectations, with a 0.49% decline, ranking fourth among sectors [14] - The top five performing companies in the synthetic biology sector during the week included Lianhua Health (+9%), Shandong Heda (+6%), and others, while the bottom five performers included Zhejiang Medicine (-14%) and others [15][18] Company Developments - Hengxin Life announced a 501 million yuan investment to expand its production of PLA and PHA biodegradable products, addressing capacity shortages due to increased downstream demand [20] - Wanhua Chemical reported a revenue of 203.2 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 11.62%, while continuing to deepen its focus on bio-based materials [21] - Beyond Meat became the first company in the plant-based meat sector to receive Clean Label certification for over 20 products, enhancing consumer trust and aligning with industry trends towards transparency and safety [22] Financing Trends - The synthetic biology sector is witnessing accelerated financing, with companies like Nanjing Niubang Biotechnology completing significant funding rounds to expand their technological platforms and production capacity [25][26] R&D Directions - He Yuan Bio is advancing its third-generation technology for plant-based recombinant proteins, significantly increasing protein expression levels [28] - Huaheng Bio is focusing on synthetic biology research, integrating AI into its operations to enhance production efficiency and product offerings [28]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The tail risk of the Iran situation should be emphasized. After the US and Israel's air strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large - scale counter - attack. On March 19, the Middle East conflict escalated again, and Qatar's LNG facilities were damaged. Subsequently, the situation cooled down as the US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the coming days. The main affected varieties are crude oil, LPG, and the shipping sector, and the continuous rise in oil prices has affected the oil - chemical and oilseed sectors, and may cause concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - Global expectations of interest rate hikes are rising. The Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75% on March 19. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate and removed the "rate cut" wording. The Bank of Japan kept the policy unchanged, and the European Central Bank maintained the rate at 2% but has a tougher stance. The rise in oil prices and supply - chain disruptions have led to a special copper - oil seesaw pattern [2]. - In China, policies are being implemented in advance, and the economic structure is divided. The government work report in 2026 aims for an economic growth of 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. China's February foreign - trade data shows high growth, and there are different trends in various economic sectors such as consumption, industry, and real estate. The central bank will conduct a 5000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on March 25 [3]. Group 2: Commodity Analysis - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - correlation between the non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices is worthy of attention. The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 4 - billion - barrel crude oil reserve, and the US plans to release 1.72 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves. Oil price increases have a driving effect on oil - chemical products, and the EU, Russia, and South Korea have taken measures to deal with the energy crisis. The oil - seed sector in agriculture is also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [4]. Group 3: Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [5]. Group 4: Key News - US March PMI data shows different trends in manufacturing, services, and the composite index. Pakistan's prime minister is ready to host US - Iran talks. Egypt's foreign minister has held consultations with multiple countries on the Middle East situation. Eurozone, German, and French March PMI data show different trends in manufacturing and services. China's central bank will conduct a 5000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on March 25 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the differentiation in the upstream sectors of energy and non - ferrous metals, and provides an overview of mid - view events and the industry situation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: By the end of 2025, over 100,000 high - quality data sets were built in China. By March 2026, the daily average Token call volume exceeded 140 trillion, a more than 1000 - fold increase from the beginning of 2024 and a 40% increase from the end of 2025 [1]. - **Service Industry**: The Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) has been increased and renewed for 13 consecutive months. On March 25, 2026, a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation with a 1 - year term will be carried out. Chengdu and Wuhan have introduced housing - related policies, including increasing the maximum loan amount and soliciting opinions on the implementation rules for off - site personal housing loans [1]. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Copper, aluminum, and nickel prices in the non - ferrous sector, natural rubber prices in the agricultural sector, and crude oil prices in the energy sector have declined, while natural gas prices in the energy sector have risen [2]. - **Midstream**: The PX operating rate in the chemical sector has declined, the PTA operating rate has increased, power plant coal consumption in the energy sector has decreased, and the operating rate of pig products in the agricultural sector has increased [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined, and the number of domestic and international flights is at a high level compared to the same period [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market focus is on the Iran situation, with rising crude oil prices due to the tense situation. The PXN has been significantly compressed, and the supply interruption in the Middle East has continuously pushed up the naphtha price. However, PX's upward momentum is limited by the poor downstream polyester demand. The impact of the Iran situation is gradually expanding, and the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz remains low. Under the concern of supply interruption, the PX spot shows a Back structure, and the floating price is relatively strong. Recently, affected by the concern about the stability of raw material supply, the PX load has decreased, and the de - stocking amplitude has increased. If the raw material supply continues to be affected, the impact on refineries in other countries will also continue to expand [1]. - For TA, the PTA spot basis is -75 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of -2 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 337 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +106 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 326 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +7 yuan/ton). The weaving load and polyester load are recovering, and the PTA load has decreased but the impact is smaller than that of PX. It continued to accumulate inventory in March, but the PTA trend is relatively strong under cost support, and the processing fee is compressed. Currently, the supply is relatively abundant, and the spot basis is running weakly. The market is gambling on which has a greater impact, supply reduction or demand suppression. In the medium and long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, and the long - term expectation is still good [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 87.6% (with a month - on - month increase of 0.9%). The polyester and weaving loads are stable, but the downstream prices are sluggish in following the price increase, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is not high. There are more voices of production reduction. Recently, the sales of filament have been continuously sluggish, and the inventory of filament and staple fiber has rapidly accumulated. The polyester load is lower than that of last year. If the downstream continues not to replenish inventory, the load may decrease [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is -54 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month increase of 213 yuan/ton). The downstream has a strong wait - and - see attitude, moderately replenishes at the phased low level, and the high - level transactions are few. The staple fiber factory equipment has been started, and the load has increased. Due to the weak sales, the factory inventory has increased, and the processing difference fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 1108 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +116 yuan/ton). Affected by the situation in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, the upstream raw materials have experienced production reduction and load reduction phenomena, the prices of polyester raw materials have risen significantly, and the prices of polyester bottle chip factories mostly follow the increase. The operating load of polyester bottle chip equipment is stable and slightly increased, and the overall supply has increased slightly. However, the mainstream factories have cut part of the contract volume, and the circulating supply is still tight. The inventory of bottle chip factories remains at a low level, and the processing fee has retreated but is still relatively high [3]. - Strategy: For the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to cautiously go long on PX/PTA/PF/PR for hedging. Before seeing actual troop withdrawal or negotiation, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still difficult to be smooth, and the cost support and supply concerns still exist, but there is a negative feedback expectation on the demand side. Currently, the trading is difficult, and it is not advisable to chase up or kill down. For the cross - variety strategy, there is no relevant suggestion. For the cross - period strategy, the supply affects the PX 5 - 9 positive spread, and attention should be paid to the traffic situation in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trend, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [8][9][14] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, staple fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operating rate [47][49][57] PF Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [69][78][81] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [89][93][95]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating", and the trading strategy is "wait - and - see" [2] Group 2: Report Core View - The Middle East geopolitical situation is complex and changeable, with international crude oil fluctuating sharply at high levels. The previous expectation of reduced raw material input for pure benzene led to an expected supply shortage in the market. Most major downstream products are profitable. In the short term, the pure benzene price will oscillate under the influence of crude oil prices, and the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation needs to be closely monitored [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday night, the price of the main - contract futures BZ2605 dropped by 270 yuan to 8553 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 8435 yuan/ton (down 325 yuan month - on - month), and the spot price in Shandong was 8353 yuan/ton (down 99 yuan month - on - month). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 1552 lots to 19,100 lots, and short positions increased by 1962 lots to 21,100 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In February, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.8591 million tons, a decrease of 87,300 tons from the previous month and an increase of 138,500 tons compared with the same month last year [2] - Inventory: On March 23, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at ports in Jiangsu was 269,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous inventory of 288,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.60%; an increase of 129,000 tons compared with the inventory of 140,000 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 92.14%. From March 16th to March 22nd, the incomplete statistics showed arrivals of 16,000 tons and pick - ups of about 35,000 tons. During the period, among the statistical storage areas, 4 storage areas decreased, 1 increased, and 2 remained stable [2] - Price adjustment: Sinopec Chemical Sales raised the listed price of pure benzene by 100 yuan/ton. The East China, North China, South China, and Central China branches along the Yangtze River all implement 8500 yuan/ton. This price has been officially implemented since March 24th [2] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 71.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; the operating rate of phenol was 87%, a month - on - month decrease of 2%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 74.5%, unchanged month - on - month; the operating rate of aniline was 89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [2] - International oil price: Iran denied having peace talks with the United States, the conflict has not been substantially alleviated, and the supply risk remains. International oil prices have risen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 05 contract rose 4.22 dollars/barrel to 92.35 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 4.55 dollars/barrel to 104.49 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The China INE crude oil futures 2605 contract dropped 53.2 to 751.9 yuan/barrel and dropped 11.7 to 740.2 yuan/barrel at night [2] Market Logic - Due to the complex and changeable Middle East geopolitical situation, international crude oil fluctuates sharply at high levels. The previous expectation of reduced raw material input for pure benzene led to an expected supply shortage in the market, and most major downstream products are profitable. In the short term, the pure benzene price will oscillate under the influence of crude oil prices [2] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts cause repeated disturbances. Coal and coke prices fluctuate sharply following crude oil prices. The ongoing US - Iran conflict and tight liquidity of some spot varieties make iron ore futures and spot prices strong. Affected by the expected energy - saving and emission - reduction production cuts in the industry, the manganese - silicon futures rose strongly but then fell back from the high level. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, there is still expected pressure on coking coal warehouse receipts, and the supply - demand surplus pattern of glass and soda ash remains unchanged. After the sector prices rise, there is still a risk of decline. Attention should be paid to the disturbances from the geopolitical end and the iron ore supply end [1]. - Overall, the peak - season expectations are cautious, and the upward drive from the real - world end remains to be verified. There are still uncertainties in domestic and foreign macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If the geopolitical conflicts continue, the price support will be strong; if the conflicts ease, the prices may face a correction [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The ongoing US - Iran conflict and tight liquidity of some spot varieties support iron ore futures and spot prices. The supply - demand remains loose, and it is difficult to see overall inventory reduction, which suppresses the upper - limit valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. In the short term, scrap steel arrivals remain stable overall, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue in a weak balance, with short - term oscillation expected [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - In the short term, the supply and demand of coke both increase, and the resumption speed of hot metal production may be faster. The price of the spot cost end continues to rise, and the expectation of a successful spot price increase for coke is strong. The futures are expected to follow the coking coal at the cost end. Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of coking coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflicts ease and trading returns to the fundamentals, there will still be correction pressure on the coking coal and coke futures [2]. 3.3 Alloys - Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of rising manganese ore import costs and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties are difficult to disprove. However, based on the fundamentals of loose supply - demand, high inventories, and difficult cost transmission for manganese - silicon, in the medium - to - long term, there is still a risk of correction for the valuation level of the futures higher than the cost. For ferrosilicon, the problem of over - capacity is still relatively serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose. In the medium - to - long term, there is still a risk of correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the cost [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expected disturbances in glass supply, but the inventories of middle - and downstream are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales cannot continue to improve, high inventories will always suppress prices. The short - term supply of soda ash is stable at a high level, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6]. 3.5 Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: Cost support is strong. Pay attention to peak - season demand. Spot trading is average. After the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, iron - water production has rebounded rapidly, and electric - furnace production has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. The overall supply of the five major steel products has rebounded from a low level, mainly in the building materials category. Demand shows resilience, and steel has started to reduce inventories, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high. Geopolitical risks increase energy valuation, and the cost end has strong support, but the high inventory and cautious peak - season expectations limit the upward drive of prices [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures are oscillating at a high level, with repeated geopolitical disturbances. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and arrivals have recovered. The US - Iran conflict affects the shipment and arrival rhythm, and high crude - oil prices increase shipping costs. The overall supply - demand is loose, but the pressure is difficult to be reflected in trading. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the new CEO of BHP, the US - Iran conflict, and the sensitivity of iron - ore prices [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals continue in a weak balance, and the spot price has a narrow - range correction. Scrap - steel arrivals are stable overall, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [10]. - **Coke**: Cost support is strong, and the bullish sentiment is strong. The futures follow coking coal and oscillate at a high level. After the lifting of restrictions, both supply and demand have recovered. The cost has been rising, and the expectation of a successful spot price increase is strong. The futures are expected to follow coking coal [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The auction prices continue to rise, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The energy substitution logic is the focus of trading. Domestic supply has room for a small increase, and imports remain high. After the lifting of restrictions, coke production has increased, and upstream coal - mine inventories have decreased. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall, but there is correction pressure if geopolitical conflicts ease [12]. - **Glass**: Real - world demand is weak, and production and sales have weakened month - on - month. Supply may be disturbed, and middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The supply - demand is in surplus, and high inventories suppress prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - demand is still in surplus, and macro factors dominate fluctuations. Supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - surplus pattern will intensify in the long run, with the price center declining [15]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: Affected by the expected production cuts, the futures rose and then fell. The actual production - control intensity remains to be seen. The cost is expected to rise, and demand may improve, but the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and there is a risk of correction in the medium - to - long term [16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The cost expectation is strong, but the valuation support is insufficient. The electricity - cost increase expectation is strong, and demand may improve. However, over - capacity is serious, and the supply - demand may turn loose. There is a risk of correction in the medium - to - long term [18].

黑色建材日报 2026-03-25 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3145 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 9 元/吨（-0.28%）。当日注册仓单 63614 吨, 环比增加 3659 吨。主力合约持仓量为 126.35 万手，环比减少 87899 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3324 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 6 元/吨（-0.18%）。 当日注册仓单 521912 吨, 环比减少 294 吨。主力合约持仓量为 102.43 万手，环比减少 31099 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3300 元 /吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 【策略观点】 昨日商品指数延续高位震荡，成材价格整体维持震荡偏强运行。宏观方面，1—2 月房地产数据表现依旧偏 弱：房地产开发企业房屋施工面积 535372 万平方米，同比下降 11.7%，其中住宅施工面积 371347 万平方 米，同比下降 11.9%；房屋新开工面积 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index, a rebound in A - shares, and a general rise in various assets. The market's risk preference is in a state of shock. For commodities, different sectors have different trends and influencing factors, such as steel prices being affected by cost and demand, and copper prices being affected by macro and fundamental factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US intends to propose a one - month cease - fire to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran. The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [1][12][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a volume - shrinking rebound due to the easing of the US - Iran situation. If the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz can be restored through negotiation, the stagflation trade may reverse, and equity opportunities will emerge. Currently, due to high uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and add positions on dips [2][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 17.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations. The market has carried out TACO trading, with various assets generally rising. It is necessary to closely monitor the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [3][19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico and South Africa have made anti - dumping rulings on Chinese steel products. Steel prices are oscillating. The lack of clear fundamentals and the influence of Trump's statements and the Middle East situation have led to market fluctuations. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by cost, and the upside space is limited [4][22][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The power coal market in Shaanxi is strong. The coking coal spot market has a good trading atmosphere, with prices rising. In the short term, the international oil price and downstream replenishment support the coking coal price, but in the long term, the lack of terminal demand and sufficient supply may suppress the price [27][28][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US and Vietnamese textile and clothing imports and exports have different trends. The domestic textile industry is in good condition, with sufficient orders. However, there are concerns about import yarn, policy tools, planting area, and the macro - economic situation. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [31][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of corn in the four northern ports has increased, and the sales progress of the grassroots has recovered. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The policy provides a bottom - support for the corn price. Corn is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Dazhong Mining plans to invest in a lithium salt project. The lithium export ban in Zimbabwe has not been lifted as expected. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [39][40][41]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium rebounded slightly. The market follows macro - fluctuations. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, use options, and pay attention to the opportunity of long platinum and short palladium [41][42][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [44][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Atalaya's copper production in the first quarter is slightly lower than planned. The macro - factors are complex and changeable, and the fundamentals show internal - external differentiation. The copper price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [48][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin is at a discount. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the spot is at a premium. The supply and demand are both weak, and the tin price is oscillating widely due to the influence of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [52][54]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG spot price is stable, with some low - price areas having a supplementary increase. The market is affected by the news of the US - Iran negotiation. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of price fluctuations [55]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses is decreasing. The downstream enterprises maintain rigid procurement, and the supply has a gap. It is recommended to take a bullish - oscillating view [56][57][58]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries is decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The asphalt price is affected by the oil price and the geopolitical situation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [58][59]. 3.2.14 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US - Iran situation has a impact on the oil price and the container freight rate. The near - month and far - month contracts have different logics. It is recommended to maintain a bullish - oscillating view and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [60][61].