6 M M F - 1 - 2025 年 10 月 14 日 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 研究支持 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch.com 苏萌 A0230122080001 sumeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 何佳霖 (8621)23297818× hejl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 H传寸/分别幸 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 板块盈利修复进行时,推荐价 表 1：机械行业重点公司 2025Q3 业绩预测 转+科技赋能 机械行业 2025 年三季报业绩前瞻 F = 1.6 ● 机器人&零部件：人形机器人产业化进程持续推进，看好长期产业趋势。2024 年以来全 球机器人产业链扩容，人形机器人进入工厂进行场景测试；英伟达、华为入局，机器人 从硬件走向系统，包括特种机器人在内的各种 ...

Core Points - The articles emphasize the importance of quality management in enhancing the entire industrial chain and promoting economic development, with various regions implementing initiatives to strengthen quality awareness and management [2][3][6][8][15]. Group 1: Quality Awareness and Management Initiatives - Beijing is focusing on enhancing quality awareness through over a hundred activities, integrating online and offline methods to promote quality education and support traditional industries in digital transformation [3][4]. - Shanghai is conducting quality awareness campaigns and has published a quality status report, promoting quality craftsmanship and organizing various quality improvement activities [6][7]. - Guangxi is launching six major actions to support high-quality economic development, focusing on standardization and quality management across key industries [8][9]. Group 2: Quality Safety and Consumer Protection - Guangxi is enhancing quality safety measures by implementing strict regulations on industrial products and consumer goods, ensuring consumer rights protection through various initiatives [9][12]. - Jiangxi is focusing on quality regulatory governance, conducting special actions to ensure product safety and consumer protection, while promoting quality awareness through public engagement activities [11][12]. Group 3: Regional Quality Improvement Activities - Fujian is implementing targeted quality services to enhance industrial quality, including certification initiatives and industry-specific training programs [13][14]. - Hunan is organizing a series of quality improvement activities across various sectors, emphasizing government support and community involvement in quality enhancement [15][16][17].

10月14日，国家发改委发布的《节能降碳中央预算内投资专项管理办法》指出， 重点行业领域节能降碳项目。支持电力、钢铁、有色、建材、石化、化工、机械等 重点行业节能降碳改造。支持以工业园区、产业集群为载体整体部署并规模化实施 的节能降碳改造。支持供热、算力等基础设施节能降碳改造。支持中央和国家机关 节能降碳改造。煤炭消费清洁替代项目。支持煤电机组和煤化工项目低碳化改造。 支持食品、烟草、纺织、造纸、印染等行业燃煤锅炉、工业窑炉，实施清洁能源替 代。支持城乡居民采用地热能、生物质能供暖。 | | | 国家发展改革委关于印发《节能降碳 中央预算内投资专项管理办法》的通知 发改环资规〔2025〕1228号 中直管理局，国管局，各省、自治区、直辖市及计划单列市、新疆生产建设兵团发展改革委： 为加强和规范节能降碳专项中央预算内投资管理，高质量推进项目建设，提高资金使用效益，我们制定了《节能降碳中央预算内投资专 项管理办法》，现予印发，请遵照执行。 国家发展改革委 2025年9月19日 节能降碳中央预算内投资专项管理办法 第一章 总则 第一条 为加强和规范中央预算内投资节能降碳项目管理，保障项目顺利实施，切实发挥中央预算内 ...

根据美国数据，今年前六个月，美国从中国进口的商品总额只有大约132亿美元，而出口到中国的是大约114亿美元，这比去年同期下降了不少。中国海关总 署的数据也显示，前七个月中美贸易额是3372亿美元，同比降了12%。这说明摩擦升级后，贸易规模确实在缩水。要是完全脱钩，意思就是零贸易往来，那 影响肯定更大，但中国还能不能繁荣下去，得看具体情况。 先说脱钩的可能性。脱钩不是一夜之间的事，从2018年贸易战开始，美国就一步步加关税，今年特朗普上台后，又在4月威胁加50%的关税，把一些税率推 到104%。不过5月双方达成了有限协议，只保留了10%的基础关税，中国也取消了部分反制措施。这说明完全脱钩目前还没发生，但趋势在往那儿走。美国 智库报告说，冲突从关税扩展到科技、金融，挤压了中美经济空间。中国对美出口从2024年的近4400亿美元，现在前五个月就降到1774亿美元，同比跌 9.7%。如果彻底断开，中国出口那块儿得损失大头，顺差也从去年的2633亿美元缩减。 完全脱钩对中国是挑战，但有底气扛住，通过经验和方案继续繁荣。美元地位在动摇，趋势向下，但短期稳固。未来经贸走向取决于谈判，但存量博弈没缓 和余地。全球总蛋糕没大， ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19% on October 13, with six industries experiencing gains, led by non-ferrous metals and environmental protection, which rose by 3.35% and 1.65% respectively [1] - The automotive and home appliance sectors saw the largest declines, with decreases of 2.33% and 1.7% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets reached 38.169 billion yuan, with nine industries experiencing net inflows [1] - The steel industry had the highest net inflow of capital, amounting to 1.351 billion yuan, and saw a rise of 1.49% [1] - A total of 22 industries experienced net capital outflows, with the power equipment sector leading with an outflow of 7.198 billion yuan, followed closely by the electronics sector with an outflow of 7.140 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The power equipment sector declined by 0.68%, with a total of 363 stocks in the sector; 112 stocks rose, and three stocks hit the daily limit up, while 246 stocks fell [1] - The capital flow data indicates significant outflows from the power equipment sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19% on October 13, with six industries experiencing gains, notably non-ferrous metals and environmental protection, which rose by 3.35% and 1.65% respectively. Conversely, the automotive and home appliance sectors saw declines of 2.33% and 1.7% respectively [1] Industry Performance - Among the industries, the steel sector led in net inflow of funds, with a total of 1.49% increase and a net inflow of 1.351 billion yuan. Non-ferrous metals also saw significant inflow [1] - A total of 22 industries experienced net outflows, with the power equipment sector leading with a net outflow of 7.198 billion yuan, followed closely by the electronics sector with a net outflow of 7.140 billion yuan [1] Home Appliance Sector Analysis - The home appliance industry declined by 1.74%, with a net outflow of 607 million yuan. Out of 94 stocks in this sector, 13 rose, including one that hit the daily limit, while 80 stocks fell [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19% on October 13, with six industries experiencing gains, led by non-ferrous metals and environmental protection, which rose by 3.35% and 1.65% respectively [1] - The automotive and home appliance sectors saw the largest declines, with decreases of 2.33% and 1.7% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets reached 38.169 billion yuan, with nine industries experiencing net inflows [1] - The steel industry had the highest net inflow of capital, amounting to 1.351 billion yuan, and saw a price increase of 1.49% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector also attracted significant capital inflow [1] Industry-Specific Insights - A total of 22 industries experienced net capital outflows, with the power equipment sector leading with an outflow of 7.198 billion yuan, followed closely by the electronics sector with an outflow of 7.140 billion yuan [1] - The automotive industry faced a decline of 2.33%, with a net capital outflow of 6.024 billion yuan, where out of 280 stocks, 34 rose and one hit the daily limit up, while 244 fell [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. imports from China have significantly declined, with China dropping to the third position in U.S. imports, behind Mexico and Canada, due to ongoing trade tensions and tariffs [2][4][11] - The trade war initiated in 2018 has led to a 17.9% decrease in Chinese exports to the U.S., with the share of Chinese imports in total U.S. imports falling from 22% in 2017 to 16% in 2024 [4][11] - Mexico's imports to the U.S. have increased, driven by automotive parts and electronics, with a 6% rise in 2024, while Canadian imports remain stable, primarily in energy and raw materials [5][9] U.S. Import Dynamics - In 2024, the U.S. imported $50.585 billion from Mexico and $42.121 billion from Canada, while imports from China totaled $46.262 billion [2] - The first half of 2024 saw China’s imports lagging behind Mexico and Canada, with figures of $168.6 billion for China compared to $195 billion for Mexico and $176 billion for Canada [2] Trade War Impact - The trade war has resulted in a significant shift in supply chains, with U.S. companies seeking alternatives to Chinese suppliers, leading to a rise in imports from neighboring countries [4][11] - The "China +1" strategy has emerged, where U.S. companies source components from Mexico, effectively bypassing tariffs on Chinese goods [7] Sector-Specific Trends - Mexico's rise in U.S. imports is attributed to U.S. automakers relocating production to Mexico, with a notable increase in Chinese exports to Mexico by over 20% in 2024 [7] - Canada remains a stable trade partner, supplying 63% of U.S. imported crude oil, with total trade exceeding $80 billion [9] China's Export Challenges - China's exports to the U.S. fell by 8.3% in the first half of 2024, with a more severe drop of 12.4% in dollar terms, reflecting broader economic challenges and reduced demand from developed countries [11][13] - The overall export growth rate for China has slowed to around 5%, significantly below expectations, as U.S. companies prefer sourcing from countries like Vietnam and India [11][17] Strategic Shifts - In response to declining exports, China is diversifying its trade relationships, with record trade volumes with Russia and increased exports to Brazil and African nations [13][17] - High-tech exports from China are on the rise, with a focus on electric vehicles and self-developed technologies, indicating a shift from low-end manufacturing to innovation [17] Long-term Implications - The changes in trade dynamics present a mixed outlook for the U.S., with increased supply chain resilience but higher costs leading to inflationary pressures [15] - For China, the trade challenges are prompting a strategic pivot towards high-value exports and technological advancement, moving away from reliance on low-end manufacturing [17]

继续看多黄金和 AI 产业链 20251010 摘要 万得全 A 指数 2025 年第四季度预计达 7,200 点，对应上证指数约 4,500 点，表明对 A 股市场持乐观态度，建议关注潜在的投资机会。 美国和日本 GDP 同比已进入下行周期，欧元区 GDP 高点出现在第三季 度。预测日元对美元将走弱，而欧元对美元的强势将减弱，以美元计价 的黄金将继续走强。 短期择时策略基于情绪指数，看多中证全指，对港股恒生指数持空仓观 点。行业轮动方面，看好机械、电力设备新能源、国防军工、商贸零售 和通信等行业在 10 月的相对收益。 从康波周期视角看，目前处于萧条期，但人工智能将引领下一轮复苏。 国内短周期方面，人口负面冲击主要集中在 2018 年至 2030 年，产能 利用率和库存周期均处于下行期，总需求不足导致 CPI 已降至零以下。 黄金价格与实际利率呈负相关关系，实际利率下降，ETF 及央行购金需 求增加，中长期内黄金仍具上涨潜力，建议逢低加仓。 白银作为工业金属，其驱动力更多来自工业需求而非简单修复金银比， 短期炒作可能过度，应谨慎投资。 A 股情绪指数显示，目前离牛市顶部尚有距离，可以考虑适当入场布局。 期权 ...

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government is focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing long-term strategic adjustments to macroeconomic policies rather than short-term gains[4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new policy financial tool worth CNY 500 billion to support effective investment[5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy focus from "implementation" to "execution," aiming for a moderately loose monetary policy[8] Infrastructure and Industry - Policies are being introduced to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and machinery, with an emphasis on capacity reduction[6] - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added over the next two years[7] Real Estate Policy - Cities like Guangzhou and Wuhan are implementing measures to optimize land use and stimulate demand, including interest subsidies for home loans[9] - The focus is on utilizing existing urban land effectively as China enters a "stock era" in urban development[9] Trade Relations - The U.S.-China trade conflict is escalating, with the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1, 2025[12] - China has responded with export controls on rare earth technologies, affecting various critical sectors[11] Overseas Macro Policy - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown due to funding issues, impacting federal employees and public services[15] - The Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions remain uncertain, with discussions around potential rate cuts to address labor market concerns[16] Market Trends - In the first week of October, major overseas stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, experienced declines of approximately 2.43% and 2.53%, respectively[18] - Gold prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold reaching USD 3,986.20 per ounce, reflecting a 2.68% increase[19] Risk Factors - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[20]