Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a steady recovery in demand post-holiday, with overseas thermal coal prices generally rising [1][81] - The CCI 5500 thermal coal index reported a price of 744 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 22 RMB/ton [4][82] - The overall sentiment in the market is positive due to recovering industrial demand, low inventory levels, and geopolitical factors supporting coal prices [4][82] Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices at ports have continued to rise, with the CCI 5500 index increasing by 22 RMB/ton to 744 RMB/ton [10][82] - Domestic coal prices are mixed, with Shanxi region prices up by 16 RMB/ton while some areas in Inner Mongolia saw declines of 18-20 RMB/ton [10][82] - The utilization rate of coal mines is at 72.1%, down 12.3 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [20][81] Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to shift from a loose supply-demand balance to a tighter one in 2026, with domestic production growth slowing significantly [4][82] - The overall profitability of the coal sector is projected to improve in 2026, with a total profit of 352 billion RMB in 2025, down 42% year-on-year [4][82] - The coal sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is currently at 16.4, with dividend yields for leading companies generally between 4-5% [4][82] Key Companies - Companies with stable earnings and favorable valuations include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal [4][82] - High elasticity companies benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply constraints include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [4][82] - Companies with long-term growth potential include Huayang Co., New Energy, and Baofeng Energy [4][82] Recent Focus Areas - The implementation of long-term contract policies for 2026 is a key focus, with stricter safety regulations affecting production levels [4][84] - The coal import volume is expected to continue declining, with a 9.6% year-on-year decrease in 2025 [4][82] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of geopolitical tensions on coal prices and supply chains [4][82]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][8]. Core Insights - International thermal coal prices have surpassed the critical threshold of $120 per ton, driven by U.S. policy shifts and reduced supply from Indonesia. The price reached $121.55 per ton on February 19, 2026, marking a new high since January 2025 [2][3]. - The report highlights that the increase in coal prices is supported by a combination of U.S. policy changes aimed at ensuring stable military power supply and rising energy demands from the AI sector. Additionally, Indonesia's government plans to cut coal production quotas to stabilize market prices [3][4]. - In Europe, a decrease in carbon emission costs has improved the economics of coal-fired power generation, while coal shipments from Colombia and the U.S. have declined, leading to a drop in ARA port inventories to a seven-month low [3][4]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Prices - Newcastle coal prices (6000K) reached $118.50 per ton, up by $2.30 per ton (+1.98%) from the previous week. In contrast, ARA port coal prices fell to $107 per ton, down by $6 per ton (-5.31%) [4][34]. - The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $98.90 per ton, a decrease of $0.60 per ton (-0.6%) [34]. Key Companies - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that are deeply involved in the smart mining sector, such as Keda Control Technology, and those undergoing turnaround situations like China Qinfa. Other companies to watch include Peabody, Jinkong Coal, and Lu'an Environmental Energy [3][6]. Market Trends - The coal mining sector is projected to experience a significant increase in performance, with a forecasted growth trajectory that outpaces the broader market index [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Accumulate" [1] Core Insights - The port coal price remains strong, with a current spot price of 751 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 29 RMB/ton [1] - Supply side shows an increase in daily average inflow to 1.749 million tons, up by 26.28% week-on-week, while daily average outflow increased to 1.6735 million tons, up by 16.03% [1][29] - The inventory at the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased to 23.968 million tons, a rise of 1.80% week-on-week [1][33] - The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a fluctuating trend due to weak demand from downstream industrial power plants and high temperatures affecting residential demand [1] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,162.88 points, up 1.98% week-on-week, while the coal sector index rose by 5.92% [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector was 72.994 billion RMB, a decrease of 0.79% from the previous week [10] 2. Price Trends - Port coal prices increased, with the Qinhuangdao port price for 5500 kcal coal rising to 751 RMB/ton [16] - The price for Dazhong South Suburb 5500 kcal coal increased by 37 RMB/ton to 644 RMB/ton, while the price for Yanzhou 6000 kcal coal decreased by 10 RMB/ton to 950 RMB/ton [16][21] 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Daily average inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased to 1.749 million tons, while daily average outflow rose to 1.6735 million tons [29] - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports increased to 116, reflecting a 7.64% week-on-week rise [33] 4. Shipping Costs - Domestic shipping costs rose by 11% week-on-week, averaging 29.78 RMB/ton [35] 5. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets due to their low valuations [2][38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Accumulate" [1] Core Viewpoints - The port coal price remains strong, with a current spot price of 751 RMB/ton, reflecting an increase of 29 RMB/ton week-on-week [1] - Supply has slightly improved with an average daily inflow of 1.749 million tons in the Bohai Rim region, up 26.28% from the previous week [1] - Demand has also increased, with an average daily outflow of 1.6735 million tons, marking a 16.03% increase week-on-week [1] - Despite the increase in inventory to 23.968 million tons, the market remains supported by limited low-priced coal offers, leading to stable prices [1] - The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a fluctuating trend due to weak demand recovery in downstream industrial power plants and high temperatures affecting residential demand [1] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98% to 4,162.88 points, while the coal sector index increased by 5.92% to 3,179.62 points [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector was 72.994 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.79% from the previous week [10] 2. Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at the Daqing South Suburb increased by 37 RMB/ton to 644 RMB/ton, while the price at Yanzhou decreased by 10 RMB/ton to 950 RMB/ton [16] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index rose by 3 RMB/ton to 685 RMB/ton [19] 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily inflow of coal in the Bohai Rim region increased by 36,400 tons, while the outflow increased by 23,130 tons [29] - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim region rose by 7.64% to 116 vessels [33] 4. Shipping Costs - Domestic shipping costs increased by 11% to 29.78 RMB/ton [35] 5. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets due to their low valuations [38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that the shipping data for sea coal and actual import volumes are highly correlated, with an expected year-on-year decrease of 5.4% in coal imports for the first two months of the year. The actual sea coal import volume is projected to be 6,190 million tons, with January and February imports at 3,511 million tons and 2,679 million tons, respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 3.1% and 8.3% [2][3][41] - For land coal, the correlation between customs clearance vehicles and Mongolian coal imports is strong, with an expected year-on-year increase of 44% in Mongolian coal imports for the first two months, totaling 1,543 million tons [30][41] - Overall, the total coal import volume for the first two months is estimated at 7,733 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 2%, with January and February imports at 4,491 million tons and 3,242 million tons, respectively [39][41] Summary by Sections Sea Coal - The shipping data and actual import volumes show a high degree of correlation, with a projected year-on-year decrease of 5.4% in sea coal imports for the first two months. The total sea coal shipping volume to China for these months is 5,208 million tons, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year, with notable increases from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia, while the U.S. saw a decrease [2][16][17] Land Coal - The report highlights a strong correlation between customs clearance vehicles and Mongolian coal imports, with a projected year-on-year increase of 44% in Mongolian coal imports for the first two months, totaling 1,543 million tons. The customs clearance vehicles at major ports have increased by 59% year-on-year [26][30] Overall Situation - The report synthesizes high-frequency data to estimate a total coal import volume of 7,733 million tons for the first two months, which is a 2% increase year-on-year. However, February's volume has dropped to a near three-year low, with significant seasonal fluctuations observed [39][41]

短期下游主动去库叠加节后煤矿复 工复产，警惕价格阶段性下行压力 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 双焦周报 2026/02/28 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 持仓及品种比价 01 周度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 图1： 焦煤加权指数价格走势（元/吨，日线） 资料来源：文华财经，五矿期货研究中心 节后第一周，焦煤盘面价格震荡走弱，周度跌幅23.5元/吨或-2.07%（针对加权指数，下同），周线级别三连阴。驱动方面，一方面，随着 节前下游钢厂、焦化厂补库结束，节后至4月中旬前下游将进入主动去库阶段，制约消费；另一方面，节后煤矿逐步复工复产，产量逐步回 升，3月通常为煤炭产量年内峰值。此外，市场对钢材终端需求仍存担忧且对"两会"相关政策保持低预期，这些共同导致了节后第一周焦 煤价格的弱势。技术形态角度，焦煤盘面价格走弱，当前持续试探1100元/吨附近支撑，关注该位置价格表现情况，若无法支撑，或向下寻 找1055元/吨乃至1000元/吨附近 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In February, the spot market for coal and coke fluctuated narrowly, while futures prices oscillated downward with slight basis fluctuations. The domestic coking coal and coke market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices lacking a clear one - way driver and maintaining a weak oscillatory trend. After the Spring Festival, mines gradually resumed production, Mongolian coal customs clearance returned to normal, coke - producing enterprises maintained stable production, and hot metal output increased slightly compared to before the festival [2]. - In March, major coal - producing areas will fully resume production, significantly increasing supply. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is expected to remain high, further increasing domestic supply and putting pressure on coal mine inventory accumulation. On the demand side, steel mills will gradually resume production in March, driving up hot metal output and providing rigid support for coking coal and coke demand. However, due to doubts about the recovery strength of terminal steel demand, the resumption strength and inventory replenishment willingness of steel mills will be restricted, and there is still an expectation of coke price cuts. Overall, the coking coal and coke market in March will present a situation where "supply recovers faster than demand starts", suppressing prices. Key points to focus on include safety and environmental protection production - limit policies during the "Two Sessions", the deepening of anti - involution and energy - consumption control policies, and the impact of international crude oil price changes on energy prices [2]. - The recommended trend is that coal and coke futures prices will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Valuation - **Coal Futures**: In February, coking coal futures prices were weakly oscillatory, and the basis fluctuated slightly [7]. - **Coal Spot**: The prices of main coking coal in major regions were stable, while the prices of blended coal fluctuated narrowly. The warehouse - receipt prices in major regions were stable with a weakening trend [10][13][16]. - **Coke Futures**: In February, coke futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and the basis fluctuated slightly [45]. - **Coke Spot**: Coke spot prices were stable [48]. 3.2 Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Coking Coal Supply - **Production**: In February, the coking coal mine start - up rate decreased seasonally, and daily output decreased. The start - up rate and daily output of coal washing plants also decreased. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal decreased slightly [6][21]. - **Import**: In December, coking coal imports increased month - on - month, with increases in both Mongolian and Russian coal imports [27]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal Demand - In February, the daily consumption of independent coke - producing enterprises and steel - mill coke - producing enterprises increased slightly, and the total daily consumption increased [6]. 3.2.3 Coke Supply - In February, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke - producing enterprises increased, and the average daily coke output increased. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of steel - mill coke - producing enterprises were relatively stable [6][55]. 3.2.4 Coke Demand - In February, hot metal daily output increased slightly, and the blast furnace start - up rate increased [6]. 3.3 Inventory 3.3.1 Coking Coal Inventory - The total coking coal inventory decreased, and the inventories of mines, coal - washing plants, ports, independent coke - producing enterprises, and steel - mill coke - producing enterprises all decreased. The proportion of independent coke - producing enterprise inventory decreased, and the proportion of mine inventory increased. Port inventory decreased slightly [30][33][37]. 3.3.2 Coke Inventory - The total coke inventory increased. The inventory of independent coke - producing enterprises increased, while the inventories of steel mills and ports decreased. Steel - mill inventory decreased, the number of available days decreased, and hot metal output increased. Port inventory decreased [61][67][70]. 3.4 Profit - **Coke Profit**: The profit of coke - producing enterprises increased month - on - month but remained in a loss state, and the port - collection profit increased slightly [73]. 3.5 Arbitrage - The report provides tracking data on coal - coke arbitrage, including the spread between different coke contracts, the coal - coke ratio, the coke - steel ratio, and the coal - iron ratio, but recommends waiting and seeing for arbitrage [77]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hengyuan Coal Power (600971) [7] Core Views - Hengyuan Coal Power is considered a high-quality coking coal target, with capacity expansion through acquisitions and share buybacks reflecting management confidence [1][3] - The company has a coal resource volume of 1.097 billion tons as of the end of 2024, with one-third being coking coal [1] - The existing capacity from five mines totals 10.95 million tons per year, with plans to acquire 100% of Hongneng Coal Industry and Changsheng Energy to further expand capacity [1][3] - The company’s revenue and profitability are influenced by coal price fluctuations, maintaining a high gross margin [1][44] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hengyuan Coal Power, established in December 2000, primarily engages in coal mining, washing, processing, and sales [18] - The company is backed by the Anhui Wanan Coal Power Group, which holds a 54.96% stake [19] Coal Business - The company has rich coal resources, with a total coal resource volume of 1.097 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 525 million tons [25] - The planned acquisition of Hongneng Coal Industry will add 1.8 million tons per year to the company's capacity, increasing total capacity to 12.75 million tons per year [28] - The company’s coal quality is high, with low sulfur, phosphorus, and ash content, making it suitable for various industries [26] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to recover from a decline, with forecasts of net profits of -198 million, 702 million, and 1.101 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - The company’s earnings per share are expected to be -0.16, 0.59, and 0.92 yuan for the same years, indicating a significant turnaround [5] - The company’s valuation is considered low compared to peers, with a projected PE ratio of 12.5 and 7.9 for 2026 and 2027 respectively [5] Market Dynamics - The global coking coal supply is expected to weaken while demand remains strong, potentially raising price levels [3] - The report highlights the scarcity of high-quality coking coal resources, which positions Hengyuan Coal Power favorably for future growth [3][11] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to enhance its investment value and shareholder returns through various measures, including production management, cash dividends, investor relations, and share buybacks [3]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.68%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.46% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 15,966 billion yuan, a decrease of 532 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,300 stocks in the market experienced gains [1] Sector Performance - Sectors with notable gains included small metals, computing power leasing, cloud computing, coal mining and processing, cross-border payments, steel, photovoltaic equipment, AI applications, and tourism and hotel industries [1] - Conversely, sectors that saw significant declines included paper making, PCB, CPO, storage chips, batteries, photolithography machines, and PET copper foil [1] Notable Stock Movements - Rare metals such as tungsten and rare earths surged due to price increases, with companies like Zhongtung High-tech, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and Zhong Rare Metals reaching historical highs [1] - The demand for cloud computing is reflected in the first-time surpassing of AI Token usage in China over the US, leading to a significant rise in the computing power leasing sector, with stocks like Yuntian Lifei and Chengdi Xiangjiang hitting the daily limit [1] - The space photovoltaic sector also performed well, with Jun Da Co. and Shuangliang Energy both reaching the daily limit [1] External Influences - Nvidia experienced its largest single-day drop since April 16 of last year, impacting the CPO and PCB sectors, with many computing hardware stocks like Xinyisheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Shenghong Technology declining over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have reduced their holdings in CITIC Resources (01205.HK) by 108,000 shares on February 26, indicating a trend of net selling over recent trading days [1] Group 1: Southbound Fund Activity - In the last 5 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for 5 days, with a total net reduction of 206,000 shares [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for 20 days, with a cumulative net reduction of 3,976,000 shares [1] - Currently, southbound funds hold 70,806,100 shares of CITIC Resources, accounting for 0.89% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2: Company Overview - CITIC Resources Holdings Limited is primarily engaged in the exploration and sale of natural resources [1] - The company operates through four segments: - The crude oil segment focuses on oilfield operations and crude oil sales in Indonesia and China - The electrolytic aluminum segment operates aluminum smelting plants and sells aluminum ingots in Australia - The coal segment operates coal mines and sells coal in Australia - The import and export segment deals with the import of other goods and manufactured products [1]