兖矿能源（600188.SH）事件点评 收购西北矿业股权，3 亿吨规划更进一步 2025 年 04 月 09 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 8 日，公司公告，公司拟以现金 140.66 亿元收购控股 股东山能集团权属公司西北矿业 51%股权，其中以现金 47.48 亿元受让西北矿 业 26%股权，以现金 93.18 亿元向西北矿业增资。此次收购及增资后，公司将以 51%的持股比例取得西北矿业控制权。 ➢ 收购价格对应约 11 倍 PE（2024 年）。据公告，西北矿业 2023 年和 2024 年 1 月至 11 月净利润分别为 22.66 亿元、14.74 亿元。但 2024 年业绩下降是 有特殊原因的：一是五举煤矿开始试生产，核定 300 万吨的煤矿仅贡献 90 余万 吨商品煤产量，而各项固定成本及费用较高导致当年亏损 6.89 亿元，该矿 2025 年达产后将实现盈利；二是为客观公允反映资产价值，以 2024 年 11 月 30 日为 评估基准日开展评估时，对西北矿业下属资产计提 2.8 亿元减值，抵减了 2024 年利润。若剔除上述 9.26 亿元非经常性亏损，调整后净利润约 24 亿元，同比呈 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Northwest Mining for a total cash consideration of 14.066 billion yuan, which includes 4.748 billion yuan for a 26% stake and 9.318 billion yuan for capital increase [1] - The acquisition price corresponds to approximately 11 times the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024, with adjusted net profit expected to be around 2.4 billion yuan, showing a growth trend [2] - Northwest Mining has substantial coal reserves, with a total capacity of 61.05 million tons per year and a resource volume of 6.352 billion tons, which will enhance the company's domestic resource volume by 13.6% and annual production by approximately 21.91% post-acquisition [3] - The company has a commitment to achieve a cumulative net profit of no less than 7.122 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 2.223 billion, 2.385 billion, and 2.513 billion yuan for the respective years [4] - The company expects significant growth in net profit for 2025-2027, with estimates of 8.717 billion, 11.522 billion, and 11.993 billion yuan, corresponding to earnings per share (EPS) of 0.87, 1.15, and 1.19 yuan [4] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company is acquiring a controlling stake in Northwest Mining for 14.066 billion yuan, which includes a cash purchase and capital increase [1] Financial Metrics - The acquisition price reflects an estimated PE of 11 for 2024, with adjusted net profit expected to show growth despite a reported loss due to specific operational challenges [2] - Northwest Mining's coal production has been increasing, with projected production figures of 29.5 million tons, 28.3 million tons, and 31.2 million tons for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [3] Growth Potential - The company anticipates significant production increases from Northwest Mining's ongoing projects, with a potential contribution of 25 million tons per year from new mining operations [3] - The commitment to net profit growth and the projected financial performance indicate a positive outlook for the company's future profitability [4]

中国石油（601857.SH）2024 年年报点评 归母净利润增长，盈利韧性强 2025 年 03 月 31 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 3 月 30 日，公司发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年，公司实 现营业收入 29379.8 亿元，同比下降 2.5%；实现归母净利润 1646.8 亿元，同 比增长 2.0%；实现扣非归母净利润 1732.9 亿元，同比下降 7.5%。 ➢ 主业经营利润微降；非经常性损失下降。24 年，公司非经常性损失为 86.1 亿元，同比减少 173.8 亿元，主要是 23 年计提了过往的矿业权出让收益，24 年 该项目缴纳额为 46.0 亿元，相比上年减少了 190.8 亿元。从主业来看，公司总 经营利润为 2340 亿元，同比微降 0.8%；其中，油气和新能源、化工、天然气销 售业务分别实现经营利润 1598/32/540 亿元，同比+7.1%/+361.4%/+25.5%， 炼油和销售业务分别实现经营利润 182/165 亿元，同比-49.7%/-31.2%。 ➢ 天然气产量稳步增长，天然气销售加大终端市场开发。24 年，公司实现油 气当量产量 1797 百万桶，同比+2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decrease in operating revenue of 2.5% year-on-year, totaling 2,937.98 billion yuan, while achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 164.68 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.0% [1]. - The company has shown resilience in profitability despite a decline in non-recurring losses, which decreased significantly by 173.8 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1]. - The company is actively expanding its natural gas production and sales, achieving a 4.1% increase in natural gas output, totaling 51,338 billion cubic feet, and a 5.2% increase in sales volume [2]. - The company is undergoing a transformation in its chemical segment, with ethylene production increasing by 8.1% year-on-year, indicating progress in moving towards higher value-added products [3]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased by 2.2 percentage points to 52.2%, with a total cash dividend of 0.47 yuan per share for the year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 2,937,981 million yuan and a net profit of 164,676 million yuan, with a projected decline in revenue for 2025 to 2,724,280 million yuan [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.78 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10 [5][10]. Production and Sales - The company’s oil and gas equivalent production reached 1,797 million barrels, marking a 2.2% increase, while crude oil production was 942 million barrels, up 0.5% [2]. - The sales volume of refined products, including gasoline and diesel, saw a decline, with gasoline and diesel sales down by 4.5% and 6.9% respectively [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its chemical production capabilities, with significant projects underway to increase the output of high-value products [3]. - The company is also expanding its market presence in natural gas by developing terminal markets and increasing direct sales to customers [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025 to 143.14 billion yuan, with subsequent growth expected in the following years [5][10]. - The company’s stock is currently priced at 8.08 yuan, with a high dividend yield of 5.8% for A shares and 8.3% for H shares [4][6].

海上油气龙头稳步上产，承诺分红率提高彰显股息价值 2025 年 03 月 28 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 3 月 27 日，公司发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年，公司实 现营业收入 4205.06 亿元，同比增长 0.94%；实现归母净利润 1379.36 亿元， 同比增长 11.38%；实现扣非归母净利润 1333.97 亿元，同比增长 6.56%。 ➢ 24 年净产量 7.27 亿桶油当量，同比增长 7.20%，25 年产量计划 7.6~7.8 亿桶油当量。2024 年，公司实现油气净产量 7.27 亿桶油当量，同比增长 7.20%； 分区域看， 国 内 / 海 外 产 量 分 别 为 4.93/2.34 亿桶油当量 ，同比增长 5.55%/10.74%；分产品看，石油/天然气产量分别为 5.67 亿桶/9294 亿立方英 尺，同比增长 7.10%/7.48%。据公司规划，2025 年产量目标为 7.6~7.8 亿桶油 当量，以预期中值计算同比增速为 5.94%。资本开支方面，2024 年实际完成 1325 亿元，符合年初计划，同比增速为 2.24%；2025 年公司计划资本开支保持稳定， 预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is a leading offshore oil and gas producer, showing steady production growth and an increased commitment to dividend payouts, highlighting its dividend value [1]. - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 420.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.94 billion yuan, up 11.38% year-on-year [1][6]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong willingness to return value to shareholders [4]. Summary by Sections Production and Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net production of 727 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 7.20%, with a production target of 760 to 780 million barrels for 2025 [2]. - The company’s capital expenditure in 2024 was 132.5 billion yuan, in line with initial plans, with a year-on-year growth of 2.24% [2]. Pricing and Cost Management - The average price of Brent crude oil in 2024 was $79.86 per barrel, a decrease of 2.81% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was $76.75 per barrel, down 1.55% [3]. - The company managed to reduce its main cost per barrel to $28.52, a decrease of 1.08% year-on-year, primarily due to lower abandonment and sales management costs [3]. Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin of 53.63% in 2024, an increase of 3.75 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 32.80%, up 3.08 percentage points [3]. Dividend Policy - The company declared a total dividend of 1.40 HKD per share for 2024, a 12.00% increase year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 44.7% [4]. - The expected cash dividend per share is approximately 1.29 RMB, with dividend yields of 4.89% for A shares and 7.49% for H shares [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 126.89 billion yuan, 130.52 billion yuan, and 134.42 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.67, 2.75, and 2.83 yuan per share [5][6].

Group 1 - The OECD report indicates that US tariff policies are slowing down both US and global economic growth, with forecasts for US economic growth dropping significantly to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 [1] - The report predicts that inflation in the US will rebound in 2025, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [1] - Trump's tariffs have adversely affected major US industries, particularly agriculture and energy, as China has retaliated with tariffs on US imports, including natural gas and crude oil [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with Chairman Powell acknowledging that a significant portion of inflation is attributable to tariffs [5] - Global investors are increasingly selling off Indian stocks at record rates, with nearly $29 billion withdrawn since last October, while turning their attention to Chinese stocks due to economic stimulus measures [5][7] - The Indian stock market has seen a decline of 13% since its peak in September 2022, leading to a market capitalization loss of $1 trillion, raising concerns about overvaluation and potential risks [5][7] Group 3 - High long-term borrowing rates in the US are creating a competitive advantage for government bonds, making corporate debt issuance costly and uncertain [7] - The US stock market is facing valuation adjustments, with increased risks of IPO failures and uncontrollable costs in equity financing [7]

➢ 事件：2025 年 3 月 21 日，公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现营 业收入3383.75亿元，同比下降1.37%；归母净利润 586.71元，同比下降 1.71%； 扣非归母净利润 601.25 亿元，同比下降 4.36%。国际企业会计准则下，2024 年 公司实现归母净利润 624.21 亿元，同比下降 3.41%。 ➢ 非经项目捐赠支出影响业绩，24Q4 盈利同比增长、环比下降。2024 年公 司非经常性损益中对外捐赠支出 25.07 亿元，影响业绩释放。2024 年四季度， 公司实现营业收入 844.76 亿元，同环比-6.77%/-1.57%；归母净利润 125.97 亿 元，同环比+10.26%/-23.98%；扣非归母净利润 140.91 亿元，同环比-6.42%/- 14.87%。国际企业会计准则下，24Q4 公司实现归母净利润 118.52 亿元，同环 比-2.24%/-33.41%。 ➢ 2024 年分红比例 76.5%，A 股股息率 6.2%，H 股股息率 7.8%，2025- 2027 年承诺分红比例下限提升 5pct 至 65%。公司拟派发 2024 年度股 ...

中煤能源（601898.SH）2024 年年报点评 业绩微降，稳定性凸显 2025 年 03 月 22 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 3 月 21 日，公司发布了 2024 年年度报告。2024 年，公司 实现营业收入 1894.0 亿元，同比下降 1.9%；归母净利润为 193.2 亿元，同比下 降 1.1%；扣非归母净利润为 191.0 亿元，同比下降 1.3%。另外，公司国际会计 准则下的归母净利润为 181.6 亿元，同比下降 10.0%，和中国会计准则下归母净 利润的差异主要在于专项储备及相关递延税调整存在 11.7 亿元。 推荐 维持评级 当前价格： 10.23 元 [Table_Author] ➢ 24Q4 归母净利润同比大增、环比微降。24Q4，公司实现营业收入 489.9 亿元，同比增长 33.3%、环比增长 3.3%；归母净利润为 47.1 亿元，同比大增 65.5%、环比下降 2.4%；扣非归母净利润为 46.8 亿元，同比大增 67.4%、环比 下降 1.9%。 ➢ 24Q4 煤炭产量环比增长，动力煤价格稳定。1）24 全年量增价减：公司商 品煤产量为 13757 万吨，同比+2.5%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company achieved stable performance in 2024, with a revenue of 184.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47% (adjusted), and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.196 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.97% (adjusted) [1]. - The high dividend yield of 6.8% highlights the investment value, based on the company's shareholder return plan, which stipulates a cash dividend ratio of no less than 60% of the distributable profit for the years 2022-2024 [1]. - The consolidation of power assets has enhanced the stability of the company's performance, with coal production increasing by 4.13% year-on-year to 170 million tons and coal sales rising by 9.91% to 260 million tons in 2024 [2]. - Future profitability is expected to double due to the large installed capacity of power projects under construction, with the total installed capacity of coal-fired units in operation at 8,300 MW and under construction at 10,000 MW [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 6.253 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.07% and a year-on-year increase of 23.59% (unadjusted) [3]. - The company’s coal production in Q4 2024 is expected to be 42.717 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.26% [3]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 22.196 billion, 19.050 billion, and 19.844 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.29, 1.96, and 2.06 yuan [3][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 9, 10, and 10 times, respectively, based on the closing price on March 14, 2025 [3][8]. - The PB ratios for the same period are expected to be 1.9, 1.8, and 1.7 [8]. Dividend Policy - The company’s dividend policy ensures a minimum cash dividend payout of 60% of the distributable profit, leading to a projected dividend yield of 6.8% for 2024 [1].