摘要周二（11月11日）欧市早盘，贵金属市场表现强劲。经过一段时间的盘整，黄金获得了强劲的势 头。白银攀升至重要的心理关口50美元上方。贵金属需求增加，铂金上涨2.7%。现货黄金延续涨势， 一度触及4120关口，刷新近两周高点。白银涨幅超4%。美国经济数据疲软、美联储降息预期升温，凸 显黄金避险魅力。 周二（11月11日）欧市早盘，贵金属市场强势上扬。黄金在经历一段时间的震荡整理后，多头动能十 足。白银价格突破关键心理阻力位50美元大关。铂金受需求增长推动，涨幅达2.7%。现货黄金持续走 高，盘中最高触及4120关口，创近两周新高。白银日内涨幅超过4%。美国经济数据不及预期，强化了 市场对美联储降息的预期，凸显黄金作为避险资产的独特魅力。 【要闻速递】 首先，尽管美国政府停摆问题尚未完全解决，但参议院两党已重启谈判并释放积极信号，提振了市场风 险情绪。 此外，美联储官员表态分歧越发凸显，旧金山联储主席戴利支持保持降息开放态度，而圣路易斯联储主 席则呼吁谨慎，这种政策不确定性将继续影响市场节奏。 当前黄金呈现冲高回落态势，短线需重点关注前期下跌反弹形成的关键阻力区间4161-4154-4144美元/盎 司，该区 ...

Group 1 - Precious metal prices generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.83% at $4123.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.70% at $50.41 per ounce [1] - The U.S. Senate passed a procedural vote on a temporary funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, although a final vote in the Senate and a vote in the House of Representatives are still pending [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the government shutdown will not affect his view on the U.S. economy, predicting a 50 basis point rate cut in December [2] - Inflation for durable and personal goods in the U.S. showed its first slowdown in three months in October, indicating increased discounting by retailers [2] - The reopening of the U.S. government is expected to positively impact precious metals due to three main reasons: 1) Fiscal expansion is anticipated to resume; 2) Following data releases, the Fed may consider a rate cut in December; 3) The TGA account may release liquidity again [2] Group 3 - In early trading, both Shanghai gold and silver rose by more than 3% [3]

本周，美国将公布10月CPI报告，这是美联储在12月议息会议前最直接的通胀和消费指引。若美国政府 结束"停摆"，该报告有望如期公布。若美国经济数据疲软，将支持美联储继续降息，从而支撑黄金价格 再次上涨。 责编：陈丽湘 校对：杨立林 11月10日，贵金属价格持续拉涨。截至发稿，现货白银涨超3%，报49.936美元/盎司，再次逼近50美元 关口。现货黄金涨超2%，最新报4084.241美元/盎司，日内涨超80美元。 消息面上，美国政府"停摆"有望结束。当地时间9日晚，美国国会参议院推进一项联邦政府临时拨款法 案。当晚11时许，参议院以60票支持、40票反对的结果通过程序性投票。目前，美国联邦政府"停摆"已 进入创纪录的41天。美国财长贝森特对媒体称，如果"停摆"持续下去，美国今年第四季度"经济增长将 砍半"。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce due to a decline in the dollar and concerns about the economic outlook [1] - Basic metal prices, including copper and aluminum, have risen as the dollar retreats from recent highs [1] - Silver has seen strong investment demand, with inflows into ETFs and central bank purchases reinforcing a bullish outlook [1] Group 2 - Silver prices have increased slightly, maintaining momentum above $48 amid ongoing uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown [2] - The dollar index has fallen below the 100 mark after reaching a five-month high earlier in the week, influenced by mixed economic data [2] - Global demand for precious metals remains strong due to record ETF inflows and continuous central bank purchases, enhancing silver's appeal as an alternative investment and inflation hedge [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through a downward trend line and key moving averages, but caution is advised as it struggles to maintain levels above $4,000 [3] - Potential resistance for gold is identified in the $4,020-$4,030 range, with further upward movement contingent on clearing these levels [3] - A drop below the $3,975-$3,965 range could lead to further declines, testing lower support levels [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices, despite strong U.S. employment data, highlights the dominance of safe-haven demand over traditional market logic, which typically sees gold prices pressured by positive economic indicators [1][6][12]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, gold prices increased by 1.2%, reaching $3977.94 per ounce, while December gold futures rose by 0.7% to $3989.80 per ounce [3]. - The entire precious metals sector showed synchronized gains, with silver up 1.9% at $47.98 per ounce, platinum rising 1% to $1550.60 per ounce, and palladium surging 2.2% to $1421.96 per ounce [3]. Employment Data Impact - The ADP report indicated an increase of 42,000 private sector jobs, significantly above the expected 28,000, which typically would suggest a stronger economy and potentially higher interest rates, negatively impacting gold [4][8]. - Despite the positive employment data, gold prices rose due to a shift in market sentiment towards risk aversion, as investors moved funds from the stock market to gold [6][12]. Market Sentiment and Risk Aversion - The decline in U.S. stock prices from recent highs raised concerns about overvaluation, prompting a shift in capital towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [6][12]. - Analysts noted that the current market environment, characterized by stock volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, has reinforced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [12][14]. Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Following a recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, expectations for further cuts have diminished, with the probability of a December rate cut now at 70%, down from over 90% [8]. - The reduction in rate cut expectations has not deterred gold's price increase, further emphasizing the prevailing safe-haven demand [8][12]. Trade Policy Uncertainty - The U.S. Supreme Court's hearings on the legality of tariffs could impact future trade policies, adding another layer of uncertainty that supports gold prices [9]. Conclusion - The recent performance of gold amidst favorable employment data serves as a reminder for investors to maintain a balanced asset allocation, particularly in volatile market conditions [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led to a significant shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate cuts, impacting gold prices negatively. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - Spot gold prices experienced a brief rise to $4007.47 per ounce following the Federal Reserve's decision but subsequently fell to $3930.42 per ounce, a drop of $77 [1] - As of Thursday morning, gold prices further declined to $3916.32 per ounce [2] - The overall decline in gold prices was nearly 0.6% by the end of Wednesday, despite an intraday increase of up to 2% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.75%-4%, which was in line with market expectations [3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 in favor of the rate cut and indicated the end of quantitative tightening by December 1 [3] - The statement highlighted concerns about the labor market and inflation, noting that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace [3] Group 3: Powell's Hawkish Stance - Powell indicated significant internal disagreement within the FOMC regarding future rate cuts, stating that further cuts are not guaranteed [4] - Following Powell's comments, the implied probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropped from 95% to 67.9%, a decrease of nearly 30 percentage points [4] - The divergence in opinions among Fed officials reflects ongoing tensions between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment [4][5] Group 4: Market Analysts' Perspectives - Analysts have noted that the market's reaction to Powell's comments is justified, as the reduction in rate cut expectations will likely strengthen the dollar and suppress gold prices [6] - The tension within the Fed regarding inflation and interest rates has led to a cooling of market expectations for December rate cuts [7]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced volatility with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points, marking a new high since August 2015, but closed down 0.22% at 3988.22 points [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 21,656 billion yuan, a decrease of over 1900 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Resource stocks, including non-ferrous metals, steel, electricity, and gas, saw collective declines, while the military and humanoid robot sectors experienced gains [1][2] - The military sector saw significant increases, with stocks like Jianglong Shipbuilding and Beifang Changlong hitting their daily limit of 20% and over 16% respectively [4] - The humanoid robot concept stocks also surged, with companies like Jinfutech and Yongmaotai reaching their daily limit [2] Technology and Innovation - The technology sector is characterized by a "technology bull" market, driven by policy and capital support, with a focus on semiconductor, general aviation, and innovative pharmaceuticals as potential investment opportunities [3][6] - AI application stocks showed strong performance, with companies like Tianxiexiu and Shuiyou Shares hitting their daily limit, supported by recent policy initiatives promoting AI innovation [5][6] Gold and Commodities - Following a period of rapid gains, gold and non-ferrous metal stocks faced significant declines, with companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals hitting their daily limit down [7] - Global precious metal markets experienced a correction, with spot gold prices falling below $3930 per ounce, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7]

Group 1 - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) predicts that gold prices will reach $4,980 per ounce in the next 12 months, representing a 27% increase from current levels [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 52%, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 1979 [1] - Gold prices surpassed $3,000 per ounce in March and $4,000 per ounce in October, both seen as significant psychological resistance levels [1] Group 2 - The LBMA's annual survey indicates that silver prices are expected to rise from approximately $46 per ounce to $59 per ounce within a year [2] - Silver prices have increased by 62% year-to-date, the largest rise since 2010, driven by strong investment demand and supply tightness in the London spot market [2] - Silver reached a historical high of $54.5 per ounce on October 17 due to increased purchasing from India [2] Group 3 - Platinum prices are forecasted to rise from $1,544 per ounce to $1,816 per ounce, while palladium prices are expected to increase from about $1,364 to $1,709 [3] - Year-to-date, platinum and palladium prices have risen by 76% and 54%, respectively, amid supply constraints and concerns over U.S. tariffs [3]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Gold and Silver [1] Report Date and Author - Date: October 28, 2025 - Author: Wang Wenhu from the Research Institute [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Sino-US economic and trade relations' easing may put pressure on precious metal prices; Fed's possible rate cut and stop of balance sheet reduction in the long term support precious metal prices; some central banks' gold - related actions have mixed impacts on prices. It is expected that precious metal prices may adjust, and investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Sections Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Situation**: US unpaid public debt scale increased by $30.8 billion to $3.80 trillion; 2025 Q3 Treasury net issuance was $964.5 billion, and Q4 may decline. Permanent expansion of additional tax credits may increase fiscal deficits by $23.4 - $43.9 billion from 2026 - 2035; abolition of health insurance - related provisions may increase deficits by $1.4 - $37.5 billion [10] - **Monetary Policy Tools**: Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $2.435 billion; bank reserve balance decreased, overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale increased, and Treasury cash account increased. The temporary appropriation bill passed by the House failed in the Senate. Fed's lending to commercial banks showed different trends, and the regular financing plan BTFP expired. The Fed used the standing repurchase facility SRF, with a cumulative use of $30.6 billion [11][13][16][17] - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: US September CPI was 3% year - on - year, core CPI was 3% year - on - year. October consumer inflation expectations were 4.6% (1 - year) and 3.9% (5 - year). Mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to Fed's expected rate cuts and stop of balance sheet reduction. The spread between long - and mid - term Treasuries was positive and widened [19][21][26] - **Financial Stress Index**: The US OFR financial stress index decreased to - 2.0930, with some sub - indicators rising. The Fed's use of SRF eased inter - bank liquidity [29] Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - **Commercial Bank Loans**: US commercial bank loan and lease volume increased week - on - week, with different trends in various loan types [33][35] - **Retail Sales**: US Redbook commercial retail sales annual rate decreased to 5.0% week - on - week, but consumer spending remained relatively stable [38] - **Mortgage Applications**: US 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates decreased, MBA mortgage application activity index decreased, and August new and existing home sales increased [41] - **Employment**: US initial jobless claims were 218,000, lower than expected and previous values; continued claims were 1.926 million, lower than expected but higher than previous values. September ADP private employment decreased by 32,000, indicating concerns about a weakening job market [44] - **International Bond Yield Spreads**: The spreads between US and German (Japanese) mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to different central bank policies [47] - **Exchange Rates**: Euro - US dollar exchange rate may bottom out, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate may weaken [48] - **Market Volatility**: US S&P 500 and gold ETF index volatilities decreased [50] Part 3: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - **Gold**: COMEX gold non - commercial long - short position ratio decreased; COMEX and SHFE total gold inventory decreased. Gold futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [56][58][60][67][69][72] - **Silver**: London silver 1 - month lease rate decreased significantly; COMEX silver non - commercial long - short position ratio increased; COMEX, SHFE, and SGE total silver inventory decreased. Silver futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [73][76][79][83][84][85] - **Ratio Analysis**: "Gold - silver ratio" was between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years; "Gold - oil ratio" and "Gold - copper ratio" were much higher than the 90% quantiles of the past five years, with corresponding investment suggestions [87][89]

Core Insights - Gold prices have increased by 65% from the beginning of the year through October 20, marking the strongest performance since 1979, while silver has outperformed with a 78% increase, reaching an all-time high [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Central banks have been major buyers of gold, purchasing over 1,000 tons annually for the past three years, driven by geopolitical tensions and a shift away from the dollar [3][4] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves, with 95% expecting overall gold reserves to rise in the next year [4] Group 2: Silver Demand Drivers - Silver's price surge is attributed to its critical role in various industries, including electronics, renewable energy, and medical devices, with demand expected to rise as the global economy grows [6][8] - There is consistent global demand for silver in jewelry, particularly in China and India, and mints regularly purchase silver for coin production [7][8] - The current market is experiencing a "silver squeeze," where demand is outpacing supply, suggesting that fundamental drivers for silver demand will persist despite recent price pullbacks [8]