Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - risk appetite in the aluminum market is under pressure, but in the medium - term, the growth potential of aluminum due to AI - related energy and storage demand is still worthy of attention. However, there are also negative factors such as Indonesia's over - expected electrolytic aluminum production and pessimistic photovoltaic demand. In the short - term, the end - of - year destocking of aluminum depends on photovoltaic production and imports [3]. - The fundamental pressure of alumina remains unresolved. The rigid production supply puts pressure on prices, and the price may continue to be under pressure in the short - term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - **Macro and Medium - term Outlook**: The macro risk appetite is under pressure, and the AI narrative bubble is deflating. In the medium - term, the demand for aluminum in the energy and storage sectors related to AI is expected, but there are negative factors like Indonesia's over - expected electrolytic aluminum production and pessimistic photovoltaic demand. In the short - term, the end - year destocking depends on photovoltaic production and imports [3]. - **Short - term Micro - supply and Demand**: The destocking at the end of the year depends on the year - on - year decline in photovoltaic production in late November and December and the reduction in aluminum ingot imports under processing trade. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons to 61.3 million tons this week [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand is relatively resilient but not strong. The total weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil decreased, and the aluminum profile construction continued to decline slightly. The aluminum rod processing fee increased [3]. Alumina - **Fundamentals**: The fundamental pressure remains unresolved. The rigid production supply puts pressure on prices, and the price may continue to be under pressure in the short - term. The total inventory continued to increase this week [4]. - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is relatively stable, but if the futures price continues to fall, the spot price may follow. The current spot inventory of futures - cash traders is low, and they are waiting for the right time to sell [4]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of alumina continued to increase, with the factory inventory decreasing, the electrolytic aluminum factory's alumina inventory increasing slightly, the port inventory decreasing, and the platform/in - transit inventory increasing slightly [43]. Transaction - related (Spread, Volume, and Open Interest) - **Term Spread**: This week, the A00 spot premium/discount was differentiated, and the alumina spot premium strengthened. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium remained at 0 yuan/ton, while the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium increased from - 145 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month increased from - 43 yuan/ton to 41 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina increased from 42 yuan/ton to 131 yuan/ton [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of SHFE aluminum fluctuated slightly [11]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased significantly, and the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and is at a historical high, while the trading volume decreased slightly [13]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum decreased, and that of alumina continued to decline and is at a historical low [18]. Inventory (Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products) Bauxite - **Port Inventory**: As of November 21, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 49.87 million tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same [23]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of October, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises increased by 67 million tons month - on - month, and the inventory days in the alumina factory increased [28]. - **Port Shipment and Floating Inventory**: As of November 21, the weekly shipment volume from Guinea and Australia ports decreased, and the floating inventory in Guinea increased while that in Australia decreased [29]. - **Out - port and In - port Volume**: As of November 14, the out - port volume from Australian ports decreased, while that from Guinean ports increased. The in - port volume increased significantly [34]. Alumina - **Total Inventory**: The total inventory of alumina continued to increase, with the factory inventory decreasing, the electrolytic aluminum factory's alumina inventory increasing slightly, the port inventory decreasing, and the platform/in - transit inventory increasing slightly [43]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Seasonal Pattern and Current Inventory**: According to the seasonal pattern, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory usually reaches its peak in the fifth or sixth week after the holiday and then enters a destocking cycle. As of November 20, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.1 million tons to 61.3 million tons [51]. Processed Products - **Aluminum Rod**: The spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods showed a differentiated trend this week [57]. - **Aluminum Profile and Plate, Strip, and Foil**: As of October, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly. For SMM aluminum plate, strip, and foil, the finished - product inventory ratio increased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio decreased slightly [60]. Production (Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate) Bauxite - **Domestic Supply**: The domestic bauxite supply is mainly stable. In October, the SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output decreased slightly. Imported bauxite is an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. By province, the bauxite output in Shanxi showed different trends in different calibers, and the output in Henan decreased while that in Guangxi increased [65]. Alumina - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina remained basically stable. As of November 21, the total operating capacity of alumina in the country was 96.6 billion tons, with a weekly increase of 0.6 billion tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.845 billion tons this week, an increase of 0.002 billion tons from last week, remaining at a high level in recent years. The short - term supply of alumina remains loose [70]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Operating Capacity and Output**: As of October, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate was high due to profit recovery. As of November 20, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 0.8547 billion tons, an increase of 0.0003 billion tons from last week, remaining at a six - year high. During the peak consumption season, the proportion of molten aluminum increased, and the ingot casting volume is expected to decrease [73]. Downstream Processing - **Output**: The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 500 tons this week. The output of aluminum rods increased by 0.31 million tons, and the output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil decreased by 0.14 million tons [76]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises remained unchanged. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip increased slightly, while that of aluminum foil decreased. The operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, and that of aluminum cables increased slightly. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloys remained unchanged [77]. Profit Alumina - **Overall and Provincial Profits**: The profit of alumina decreased slightly this week. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 135.4 yuan/ton. By province, the profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better due to relatively firm cost [83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Profit Level and Uncertainties**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and affected market expectations [95]. Downstream Processing - **Aluminum Rod Processing Fee and Profit**: The aluminum rod processing fee increased by 170 yuan/ton this week, but the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [96]. Consumption Import and Export Profit and Loss - **Import**: The import profit and loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum narrowed [105]. - **Export**: In October 2025, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 1.7 million tons month - on - month. The export demand for aluminum products is blocked by trade policy adjustments, and the export profit and loss of aluminum processed products is differentiated [107]. Apparent Demand - **Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area decreased, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Rainy - season shipping is gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production cut expectation is strengthening. Also, the overall non - ferrous sector is trending strongly, so the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 p.m. on November 21, the alumina index fell 3.76% to 2737 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 0.1 million lots to 57.3 million lots. The Fed's hawkish stance and the unsolved alumina supply - surplus situation led to a further decline in alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was 2775 yuan/ton, with a premium of 71 yuan/ton over the December 12 contract. The spread between the first and third - month contracts closed at - 107 yuan/ton, and the weak spot made the near - month contract relatively weaker [11][24]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. Prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 15 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and increased by 5 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices were still under pressure [11][21]. - **Inventory**: Alumina's total social inventory increased by 4.3 million tons to 488.3 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 3.2 million tons, decreased by 2 million tons, increased by 3.7 million tons, and decreased by 0.6 million tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.27 million tons to 25.09 million tons; the delivery warehouse inventory was 25.58 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons from last week. The supply of circulating spot became looser, and the warehouse receipt registration volume further increased this week [11][68][70]. - **Mineral End**: Recently, domestic bauxite production has declined due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south. Domestic ore prices remain firm, but alumina plants' willingness to lower prices has increased due to shrinking profits. For imported ores, the shipping volume is stable, port inventory is rising, and ore prices are under further pressure after the rainy season [12]. - **Supply Side**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 184.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.2 million tons from last week [12][43]. - **Import and Export**: As of November 21, the Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 319 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 41 yuan/ton. Overseas alumina prices have been fluctuating in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars recently, and the domestic spot price has been continuously declining, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss [12][50]. - **Demand Side**: In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4456 million tons, the same as last month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in October remained at 97.47% [12][60]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed this week. Prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 15 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and increased by 5 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices were still under pressure [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 p.m. on November 21, the alumina index fell 3.76% to 2737 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 0.1 million lots to 57.3 million lots. The Fed's hawkish stance and the unsolved alumina supply - surplus situation led to a further decline in alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was 2775 yuan/ton, with a premium of 71 yuan/ton over the December 12 contract. The spread between the first and third - month contracts closed at - 107 yuan/ton, and the weak spot made the near - month contract relatively weaker [24]. - **Bauxite Price**: This week, bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged. For imported ores, the Guinea CIF price decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton to 71.5 US dollars/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at 68 US dollars/ton. After the impact of the rainy season in Guinea subsided, the ore shipping volume increased. The shrinking profit led to an enhanced willingness of alumina enterprises to lower prices. Coupled with the high port inventory, ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 477 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total production was 5052 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental policies, domestic bauxite production has been decreasing month by month [31]. - **Bauxite Import**: In October 2025, China imported 1377 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total import was 17140 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11% [33]. - **Bauxite Import by Country**: In October 2025, China imported 900 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative import from Guinea was 12743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. Affected by the rainy season, it declined and is expected to gradually recover later. In October 2025, China imported 382 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year increase of 3.48% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative import from Australia was 3160 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.23% [35][37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In October, China's bauxite inventory increased by 24 million tons, with the total inventory reaching 5250 million tons, still at a near - five - year high, and enterprises' ore inventory was sufficient. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 28 million tons, and that in Henan decreased by 36 million tons in October. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In October 2025, alumina production was 796.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.88% and a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative production was 7480 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.03% [42]. - **Alumina Operating Capacity**: In October 2025, the alumina operating capacity was 9640 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.57% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. As of November 21, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 184.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.2 million tons from last week [43]. - **Alumina Plant Profit**: The alumina spot price has declined, and alumina plant profits are under pressure. According to the alumina spot price on November 21, in Guangxi, with the relatively low price of local domestic ores, the current production profit can reach 155 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian and Guinea ores in Shandong are 0 yuan/ton and 70 yuan/ton respectively, approaching the loss situation. The cost of transporting port - imported ores for inland alumina plants is about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, the use of overseas ores in Shanxi and Henan has slightly turned into losses [46]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In October 2025, the net alumina import was 1.36 million tons. The opening of the import window earlier drove the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The import volume increased from 6 million tons last month to 18.93 million tons, and the export volume decreased from 24.64 million tons to 17.57 million tons. In the first ten months of 2025, the total net export was 143.75 million tons. As of November 21, the Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 319 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 41 yuan/ton. Overseas alumina prices have been fluctuating in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars recently, and the domestic spot price has been continuously declining, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss [48][50]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In October 2025, overseas alumina production was 541 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.84% and a month - on - month increase of 3.36%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative production was 5191 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.24% [52]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 380 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% and a month - on - month increase of 2.74%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total production was 3687 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [57]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Rate**: In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4456 million tons, the same as last month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in October remained at 97.47% [60]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (including estimated values for November and December), showing data on alumina supply, demand, import, export, and the supply - demand difference for each month [63]. 3.6 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: Alumina's total social inventory increased by 4.3 million tons to 488.3 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 3.2 million tons, decreased by 2 million tons, increased by 3.7 million tons, and decreased by 0.6 million tons respectively [68]. - **Futures Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.27 million tons to 25.09 million tons this week; the delivery warehouse inventory was 25.58 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons from last week. The supply of circulating spot became looser, and the warehouse receipt registration volume further increased this week [70].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 铝期货方面：2025-11-19日沪铝主力合约开于21485元/吨，收于21570元/吨，较上一交易日变化25元/吨，最 高价达21620元/吨，最低价达到21435元/吨。全天交易日成交202981手，全天交易日持仓347833手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-19，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存64.6万吨，较上一期变化2.5万吨，仓单库存69484 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存546075吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-19SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得321美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-19氧化铝主力合约开于2776元/吨，收于2740元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-53 元/吨，变化幅度-1.90%，最高价达到2794元/吨，最低价为2738元/吨。全天交易日成交302092手，全天交易日 持仓426124手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-1 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 关注铝价超预期回调后的机会 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21460元/吨，较上一交易日变化-170元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-30元/吨；中原A00铝价21340元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-150元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21320元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-165元/ 吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-18SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得320美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-18氧化铝主力合约开于2817元/吨，收于2780元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-20 元/吨，变化幅度-0.71%，最高价达到2822元/吨，最低价为2775元/吨。全天交易日成交264359手，全天交易日 持仓405010手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-18保太民用生铝采购价格16700元/吨， ...

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Group 1: Aluminum Market - The logic of aluminum shortage is expected to gradually materialize, leading to an upward cycle in aluminum prices, with electrolytic aluminum profits continuing to expand [3] - Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.48% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the profit margin for electrolytic aluminum rose by 5.40% to 6,051 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory levels show an increase in London aluminum stock by 0.57% to 552,400 tons and Shanghai aluminum stock by 1.38% to 114,900 tons, while domestic spot inventory decreased by 0.16% to 619,000 tons [3] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to macroeconomic factors, with London copper, Shanghai copper, and US copper showing respective changes of +0.99%, +1.12%, and +1.86% [2] - Domestic copper inventory is decreasing, with London copper at 136,000 tons, New York copper at 381,000 short tons, and Shanghai copper at 109,000 tons, showing changes of -0.13%, +3.23%, and -4.89% respectively [2] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased by 4.91 percentage points to 66.88% [2] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium demand has exceeded expectations, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 5.91% to 85,200 yuan/ton and spodumene concentrate increasing by 8.52% to 1,006 USD/ton [4][5] - Lithium carbonate production reached 21,500 tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1%, while weekly inventory decreased by 2.8% to 120,500 tons [4][5] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as inventory continues to decline [5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The tight supply of cobalt raw materials remains unchanged, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising, as MB cobalt increased by 0.53% to 23.65 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices rose by 3.39% to 397,000 yuan/ton [5] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban, transitioning to a quota system, but current export approvals are still pending, indicating a continued tight supply in the short term [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - Concerns over overseas electrolytic aluminum supply due to power shortages have led to aluminum prices surpassing 22,000 RMB/ton [11] - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable, with expectations of continued demand growth despite entering the traditional off-season [11] - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in the long term due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections Price - As of November 14, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,858.5 USD/ton, a decrease of 3.5 USD/ton week-on-week but an increase of 330.5 USD/ton year-on-year [21] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 21,840.0 RMB/ton, up 215.0 RMB/ton week-on-week and up 1,075.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [21] Production - In October 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.742 million tons, an increase of 127,000 tons month-on-month and 168,000 tons year-on-year [51] - The production of alumina in October 2025 was 7.785 million tons, up 182,000 tons month-on-month and 872,000 tons year-on-year [51] Inventory - As of November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 621,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 1,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.281 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week-on-week [31] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price 30.55 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.65 RMB, with a PE ratio of 11.5, rated as "Buy" [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price 14.02 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.00 RMB, with a PE ratio of 14.0, rated as "Buy" [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price 25.73 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.13 RMB, with a PE ratio of 12.1, rated as "Buy" [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price 11.66 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.84 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.8, rated as "Buy" [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price 25.95 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.88 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.8, rated as "Buy" [5]

每经AI快讯，中国铝业（SH 601600，收盘价：11.66元）11月16日晚间发布公告称，本次拟减持的人员 为中国铝业股份有限公司现任董事、副总经理蒋涛先生。截至本公告披露日，蒋涛先生持有公司23万股 A 股股份，占公司已发行总股本的约0.0013%。因个人资金需求，蒋涛先生计划自2025年12月8日起至 2026年3月7日止期间内，通过集中竞价方式减持公司A 股股份不超过约5.75万股，约占公司总股本的 0.00034%。蒋涛先生本次计划减持股份数量未超过其持有的公司股份数量的25%，减持价格按市场价格 确定。 2024年1至12月份，中国铝业的营业收入构成为：铝行业占比96.33%，能源行业占比3.67%。 截至发稿，中国铝业市值为2000亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——软银突然暴跌！曾与黄仁勋"相拥而泣"，68岁日本首富孙正义再次清仓英 伟达，套现押注OpenAI，提前入账80亿美元利润藏"猫腻" （记者 王瀚黎） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the supply may slightly converge while the demand remains relatively stable. It is recommended to lightly go long on the alumina main contract at low prices, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability with a slight increase in social inventory. It is suggested to lightly trade the Shanghai Aluminum main contract in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and slightly decreasing demand. It is recommended to lightly trade the cast aluminum main contract in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. - In the options market, considering the subsequent aluminum price to fluctuate with potential volatility convergence, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [74]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated, rising first and then falling, with a weekly increase of 0.99% to 21,840 yuan/ton. Alumina rebounded slightly, with a weekly increase of 1.4% to 2,822 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum main contract rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 0.4% to 21,095 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Alumina**: The supply tension of bauxite may ease. The current high - running capacity and high - level operation of alumina may affect smelter profits, leading to some high - cost enterprises reducing production. The demand from electrolytic aluminum remains relatively stable. The supply - demand situation may improve with production control [5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material price rebounds slightly but remains low, and the smelter profit is good with high - level operation of capacity and high start - up rate. The domestic supply may remain high. The demand may slow down due to the transition of downstream consumption from peak to off - peak season and high aluminum prices, but the export demand may be boosted by overseas supply disturbances, resulting in only a slight increase in domestic inventory [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of domestic scrap aluminum remains tight, and the cost support is strong. The production of cast aluminum enterprises is limited, and the demand may be affected by high prices and the transition from peak to off - peak season [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price Movement**: - As of November 14, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.93%) from November 7. LME Aluminum closed at 2,877 US dollars/ton on November 13, up 34 US dollars/ton (1.2%) from November 7. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.64, down 0.21 from November 7 [9][10]. - As of November 14, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,790 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (1.82%) from November 7. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 21,095 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (0.4%) from November 7 [13]. - **Position and Net Position**: As of November 14, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 783,579 lots, up 53,411 lots (7.31%) from November 7. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 29,167 lots from November 7 [16]. - **Futures Price Difference**: As of November 14, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price difference was 585 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan/ton from November 7. The copper - aluminum futures price difference was 65,060 yuan/ton, up 745 yuan/ton from November 7 [21]. - **Spot Price Movement**: - As of November 14, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang remained unchanged from November 7 at 2,855 yuan/ton. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.93%) from November 7 [24]. - As of November 14, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 21,890 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton (1.44%) from November 7. The spot discount was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: - As of November 13, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 553,200 tons, up 4,825 tons (0.88%) from November 6. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,335 tons on November 7, down 239 tons (0.21%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 566,000 tons, up 1,000 tons (0.18%) from November 6 [33]. - As of November 14, 2025, the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 64,742 tons, up 972 tons (1.52%) from November 7. The total LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 521,525 tons on November 13, up 14,575 tons (2.88%) from November 6 [33]. - **Bauxite**: The inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports was 26.4 million tons, down 230,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 15.8806 million tons, down 13.17% month - on - month but up 38.14% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 157.3053 million tons, up 31.97% year - on - year [38]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton week - on - week. In September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and crushed materials was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year, and the export was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [44]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, the alumina production was 7.999 million tons, up 8.7% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production was 68.5599 million tons, up 8.4% year - on - year. The import was 60,000 tons, down 36.43% month - on - month but up 61.68% year - on - year, and the export was 250,000 tons, up 38.89% month - on - month and 78.57% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 548,400 tons, down 57.78% year - on - year [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: - In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, up 0.4% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative production was 37.75 million tons, up 2% year - on - year. - In October 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.434 million tons, down 0.12% month - on - month but up 1.54% year - on - year. The total capacity was 45.232 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year. The start - up rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% from last month and 1.01% from the same period last year [54]. - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 246,800 tons, up 80.13% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 1.9595 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year. The export in September was 29,000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to September was 181,400 tons. From January to August 2025, the global aluminum market supply gap was 105,400 tons [50]. - **Aluminum Products**: - In September 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.9 million tons, down 1.5% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production was 49.7675 million tons, unchanged year - on - year. The import was 360,000 tons, up 35.4% year - on - year, and the export was 520,000 tons, down 7.3% year - on - year. From January to September, the import was 3.01 million tons, up 5.7% year - on - year, and the export was 4.52 million tons, down 8.1% year - on - year [58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, unchanged month - on - month but up 15.96% year - on - year. The production was 608,300 tons, down 7.35 tons month - on - month and 1.83% year - on - year [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.776 million tons, up 17.1% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production was 14.116 million tons. The import was 82,200 tons, down 13.21% year - on - year, and the export was 23,500 tons, up 2.06% year - on - year. From January to September, the import was 765,200 tons, down 13.97% year - on - year, and the export was 197,800 tons, up 9.62% year - on - year [64]. - **Related Industries**: - In October 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from last month but up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.87% year - on - year, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.31% year - on - year [67]. - From January to October 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3.322 million, up 8.81% year - on - year, and the production was 3.359 million, up 12.1% year - on - year [70]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Given the subsequent fluctuating aluminum price and potential volatility convergence, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [74].

Core Views - The report emphasizes that the metal industry is expected to see a rise in prices and profitability due to supply-demand dynamics and interest rate cuts, with a focus on industrial metals like copper and aluminum [5][6][10]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are projected to rise as the global copper market faces a supply shortage of approximately 1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, primarily due to the anticipated recovery of the Grasberg and Panama copper mines [5][23]. - The report notes that the Grasberg copper mine's production cut has led to a significant upward adjustment in copper price expectations, with a potential price increase from 79,000 CNY/ton to 82,000-83,000 CNY/ton [21][24]. - Aluminum profitability is expected to increase further, with China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaching 98%, indicating a tight supply-demand balance that could lead to price surges if demand exceeds expectations [5][30]. Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by factors such as weakening U.S. non-farm data, manageable inflation, and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates further [6][10]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented an export quota system that could create a supply-demand gap of over 10% in the global cobalt market [7]. - The lithium industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with demand for energy storage batteries significantly exceeding previous forecasts, leading to a potential supply shortage if production does not keep pace [8]. Minor Metals - The strategic importance of rare earth metals is highlighted, with China maintaining a dominant position in global production and supply, which is expected to strengthen prices further [10]. - Tungsten prices may rise due to recovering overseas demand and relaxed export controls, while antimony prices are also expected to increase following recent export policy adjustments [11][12]. Uranium - The demand for uranium is projected to increase alongside the growth of nuclear power generation in China, with expectations of a significant rise in nuclear capacity by 2035 [13]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests a selection of stocks across various metal sectors, including copper, aluminum, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals, indicating a diversified investment strategy [14].