1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - **Silver**: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - **Zinc**: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - **Lead**: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - **Nickel**: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - **Cotton**: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - **Eggs**: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip**: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - **Log**: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].

Core Points - The Trump administration is advancing another round of tariffs, which trade experts believe have stronger legal grounds than previous tariffs imposed on various countries [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to announce results of investigations into industries deemed critical to national security, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and key minerals, likely leading to tariffs on foreign-made products in these sectors [1][2] - The current 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum are impacting nearly $200 billion worth of goods, which is almost four times the amount during Trump's first term [1] - The expansion of tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act is seen as a potential move towards near-global tariffs, affecting a wide range of imported goods [2] Industry Impact - The anticipated tariffs on pharmaceuticals are expected to encourage companies to relocate production back to the U.S. [2] - The scope of the Section 232 tariffs has broadened to include consumer goods such as dishwashers and washing machines, which are now classified as critical to national security [2] - Ongoing investigations under Section 232 are injecting uncertainty into trade negotiations, as countries are wary of committing to agreements while these investigations are pending [5] Economic Implications - The current approach to tariffs may lead to increased inflation risks, as the range of products affected has expanded significantly compared to previous tariffs focused on upstream metals [6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for manufactured steel cans and tin products has already risen by 8.7% this year, indicating potential inflationary pressures from the new tariffs [6] - The potential outcomes of the expanded tariffs could include reduced product variety, inflation, or disrupted demand due to reliance on imported raw materials [6]

有色金属周报(氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金) 美联储9/12月降息预期概率有所升高 国内传统消费淡季特征渐趋显现 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年06月17日 宏源期货 研究所 金属研究团队 王文虎（F03087656，Z0019472） 董晓妮（F0287405，Z0017234） 张蕾（F03086068，Z0019377） 氧化铝 山西多数矿和河南露天矿仍未复采，几内亚政府撤销部分企业采矿权或要求部分运行企业停产，广西 计划开展非法采矿和涉重金属污染倒查十年专项行动，使国产和澳洲(几内亚)铝土矿价格环比持平(上涨)， 或使国内铝土矿6月生产(进口)量环比减少(减少)但难改供需预期偏松； 山东创源三期和广西华晟二期100与200万吨氧化铝产能已建成并部分投产，山西晋中100万吨氧化铝产 能节能增效改造项目2月底开工且建设工期14个月，广西防城港25年3月开始建设2条120万吨氧化铝产能且 总工期为8个月，或使中国氧化铝6月生产量环比增加，中国氧化铝日度平均完全生产成本为2880元/吨左 右； 南山铝业旗下印尼宾坦氧化铝三期项目100万吨产能5月上旬开启 试生产且预计25年实现满产（届时氧 化铝产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai aluminum market has shown a pattern of stable supply and slightly shrinking demand. The aluminum price is supported by low inventory levels and an improving aluminum - water ratio but is limited by seasonal off - peak demand. The alumina market is in a stage of loose supply and stable demand [6]. - It is recommended to lightly short - sell the Shanghai aluminum main contract on rallies and trade the alumina main contract in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering that the aluminum price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [59]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.84% to 20,440 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated weakly, with a weekly decrease of 1.69% to 2,852 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Situation**: In May 2025, the US PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year, indicating mild producer price increases [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The Ministry of Commerce stated its stance on opposing unilateral tariff - imposing measures and urged the US to abide by WTO rules to promote stable and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Bauxite prices were stable, and port inventories declined slightly. Alumina supply was loose with slightly accumulated inventory, and demand was stable. Electrolytic aluminum supply was stable, and demand was affected by the off - season [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of June 13, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum closing price was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 3.5% from June 6. The LME aluminum closing price on June 12 was 2,519.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.8% from June 6. The electrolytic aluminum Shanghai - LME ratio was 8.21, up 0.36 from June 6 [10][11]. - **Position Change**: As of June 13, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum position was 603,083 lots, an increase of 15.25% from June 6. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased by 12,959 lots [14]. - **Price Spread Change**: As of June 13, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,375 yuan/ton, down 940 yuan/ton from June 6. The copper - aluminum futures price spread was 57,570 yuan/ton, down 1,290 yuan/ton from June 6 [18]. - **Spot Price**: As of June 13, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from June 6. The spot discount was 230 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton from the previous week [23]. - **Inventory Change**: As of June 12, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 2.8%, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% as of June 13, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 8.78% as of June 12. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3.35% as of June 13, and LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts decreased by 0.02% as of June 12 [27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Bauxite**: In April 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 20.684 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.67% and a year - on - year increase of 45.44%. From January to April, the cumulative import was 67.7011 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.2% [30]. - **Alumina**: As of June 13, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,978 yuan/ton, down 2.07% from June 6. In April 2025, the alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. In April, the import was 10,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 90.12%, and the export was 260,000 tons [33][36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In April 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 250,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to April, the cumulative import was 833,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.32%. The output in April was 3.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 14.793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [41][44]. - **Aluminum Products**: In April 2025, the aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The import was 370,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and the export was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [47]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In April 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. The import was 86,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.66%, and the export was 16,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.9% [50]. - **Real Estate**: In April 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.86, down 0.09 from the previous month and up 2.06 from the same period last year. From January to April 2024, the new housing construction area decreased by 24.13% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 3.37% year - on - year [53]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to April 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% year - on - year. In April 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,589,610 units, a year - on - year increase of 9.78%, and the output was 2,618,769 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% [56]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillatory and pressured operation of the aluminum price in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [59].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, which has led to a significant rise in Midwest U.S. aluminum premiums and a shift to a premium state for LME aluminum [1] - Recent U.S. CPI data for May shows inflation pressures are temporarily easing, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, indicating that the new tariff policy has not yet had a significant impact on inflation [1] - China's bauxite production in May reached 5.3664 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5.31% and a year-on-year increase of 8.97%, while imports in April hit a record high of 20.684 million tons, up 25.62% month-on-month and 45.44% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Guinea's bauxite mining policies have tightened, particularly with the revocation of mining licenses in the Axis mining area, which produces about 40 million tons annually, raising market concerns [2] - Despite the Axis mining area being closed, projections suggest that China's bauxite imports will still meet domestic demand in 2025 [2] - China's electrolytic aluminum production in May was 3.729 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 3.4%, with stable operating capacity due to sufficient raw material supply [2] Group 3 - As of June, the aluminum processing sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with a slight decrease in weekly operating rates to 60.9% [3] - Different segments within the aluminum industry are showing varied performance, with some areas like construction and photovoltaic materials seeing reduced operating rates, while others like 3C and power pipeline orders remain strong [3] - Global aluminum inventory has dropped to approximately 966,000 tons, a decrease of 1,006,000 tons year-on-year, indicating a significant destocking trend [3] Group 4 - The U.S. tariff policy has not yet significantly suppressed domestic inflation, and combined with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar, these factors are providing support for aluminum prices [4] - Domestic bauxite production and imports have increased significantly in the first five months of the year, despite recent disruptions in Guinea's bauxite policies, maintaining a loose supply situation [4] - The current global aluminum inventory is below 1 million tons, leading to market concerns and a shift to a premium state for both domestic and international aluminum [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [4] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [4] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, there are no negative factors on the supply - side at home and abroad, consumption remains strong, and the high - demand reality is hard to change. The aluminum price is unlikely to fall due to low social inventory and the lack of a stocking trend. However, the sustainability of consumption needs attention, and the upward breakthrough of aluminum price may face difficulties without unexpected positive stimuli. Also, beware of cost collapse risks and pay attention to social inventory changes and the US interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - For alumina, the spot market price has declined, and the trading enthusiasm has dropped. The supply is showing signs of recovery from both production and inventory. The cost of bauxite has short - term support, and the expectation of alumina supply surplus remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum Spot and Futures - On June 9, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,150 yuan/ton, and the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,080 yuan/ton [1]. - The opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract on June 9, 2025, was 19,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,025 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.2%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 133,229 lots, an increase of 19,493 lots, and the holding volume was 181,672 lots, an increase of 214 lots [1]. Alumina Spot and Futures - On June 9, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,280 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,285 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The opening price of the alumina main contract on June 9, 2025, was 2,909 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,892 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-1.47%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 515,561 lots, a decrease of 180,818 lots, and the holding volume was 301,043 lots, an increase of 2,608 lots [2]. Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 477,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 362,000 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: Supply is stable, consumption is strong, and the inventory in June is expected to decline slightly. However, the sustainability of consumption is uncertain, and the upward breakthrough of aluminum price may be difficult without positive stimuli [3]. - Alumina: The spot price has declined, and the supply is recovering. The bauxite price has short - term support, and the supply surplus expectation remains [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum - Neutral; Alumina - Cautiously Bearish [4]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in SHFE aluminum [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has been postponed to September/December, and the characteristics of the traditional domestic consumption off - season are becoming more apparent [1] - For alumina, the production disturbance of bauxite in Guinea may push up prices and support production costs, but the potential resumption of new or overhauled alumina production capacity may lead to wide - range price fluctuations. For electrolytic aluminum, the easing of China - US tariffs may lead to an expected rush to export, but the traditional consumption off - season may weaken downstream demand, causing wide - range price fluctuations. For aluminum alloy, the decreasing domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory and increasing aluminum alloy inventory may cause the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy to first strengthen and then weaken [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: In China, Shanxi and Henan mines have not fully resumed production, and there are production disturbances in Guinea and Guangxi. However, new alumina production capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and Shanxi are being put into operation or under construction, which may increase domestic production in June. Overseas, projects like Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project may increase production, and the opening of the import window may increase imports [3][26][31] - **Cost and price**: The daily average full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,880 yuan/ton. Alumina prices may fluctuate widely, and investors are advised to wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the pressure level around 3,300 - 3,500 [3][23] - **Inventory situation**: The inventory in China's ports has increased, while the inventory in SHFE warehouses has decreased [14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic production capacity such as Luoyang Yichuan Yugang Longquan Aluminum's transfer project and Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum's project may increase production in June. Overseas, production changes in factories like Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project and New Zealand's Tiwai Point may affect imports [4][56] - **Cost and price**: The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton. The price may fluctuate widely, and investors are advised to wait and watch, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum [5] - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased, while the inventory in the bonded area has increased [40][43] Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors**: The production of domestic scrap aluminum may decrease in June. The production of primary and secondary aluminum alloys may also decrease. The expansion project of Yichiu Resources is gradually releasing production capacity, increasing the operating rate of secondary aluminum alloy production [7] - **Cost and profit**: The daily full production cost of primary aluminum alloy is 20,060 yuan/ton, and that of secondary aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,080 yuan/ton with negative profit [7] - **Inventory and price difference**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is decreasing, while the inventory of aluminum alloy is increasing. The price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy may first strengthen and then weaken, and investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company is implementing a 1.4 million ton electrolytic aluminum energy efficiency improvement plan, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and long-term cost advantages [6] - The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.17, 1.37, and 1.58 yuan respectively, with a target price of 9.36 yuan based on an 8x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is forecasted to decline from 28,975 million yuan in 2023 to 28,089 million yuan in 2024, before increasing to 35,501 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 26.4% [2][8] - Operating profit is expected to rise significantly from 2,642 million yuan in 2023 to 5,219 million yuan in 2024, and further to 6,096 million yuan in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 97.6% [2][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 2,205 million yuan in 2023 to 4,455 million yuan in 2024, and to 5,426 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 102.0% [2][8] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in 2023 to 23.3% in 2024, and stabilize around 21.5% to 23.6% in the following years [2][8] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leading player in the electrolytic aluminum industry, benefiting from a significant reduction in energy costs due to falling coal prices [6] - The implementation of advanced energy-saving technologies in the production process is expected to further reduce production costs and enhance operational efficiency [6] - The company has demonstrated strong cash flow generation capabilities, which supports stable dividend distributions [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - If the opening price of AD2511 is below 19,000 yuan/ton, go long on the AD2511 contract and short on the AL2511 contract; if it is above 19,600 yuan/ton, short the AD2511 contract unilaterally [4]. - The absolute price of aluminum alloy is expected to be poor, but it needs to be evaluated against the opening price. The relative price of aluminum alloy is currently at a low level. The supply of scrap aluminum will continue to be tight, and the fundamentals of aluminum alloy are weaker than those of electrolytic aluminum [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Background: Current Node Aluminum Price Further Upside is Limited - The profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry is 3,000 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level. The alumina price on the cost side is weak, and the inventory on the consumption side is still decreasing. However, the production of aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils shows a marginal decline, indicating the approach of the seasonal consumption off - season. Without additional macro - disturbing factors, there is no fundamental support for further increasing the aluminum price. With low inventory, the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate with a slight downward trend and limited decline space [5]. Compared with Electrolytic Aluminum, Aluminum Alloy Fundamentals are Weaker - The operating rate of recycled alloys is only about 50%, with excess capacity, while the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 97%, approaching the production capacity ceiling. The consumption of recycled alloys is overly concentrated in the automotive sector. Currently, the automobile production is good and vehicle lightweighting is ongoing, which boosts the consumption of aluminum alloy. In the long run, when automobile production and lightweighting development approach the bottleneck, the increase in the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles will drag down the consumption of aluminum alloy [5]. Scrap Aluminum Supply will Continue to be Tight - Forecasts show that the supply growth of domestic scrap aluminum will be limited, and the supply of old scrap aluminum may face challenges, leading to a continuous tight supply situation [18]. Smelting Profit and Spread Performance - From the analysis of recycled alloy smelting profit and ADC12 - A00 spread seasonality, the current relative price of aluminum alloy is at a low level. The Baotai quotation is 19,400 yuan/ton, and the actual spot transaction price is 19,200 yuan/ton. If the price of the aluminum alloy 2511 contract reaches 19,600 yuan/ton, the smelting losses of aluminum alloy plants will be repaired, and the hedging willingness will increase [5]. Expiring Warehouse Receipt Mode is Unfavorable for Buying Delivery - According to sample mine statistics, the output in the first quarter of 2025 was 1142,000 tons, with only a year - on - year increase of 4700 tons [28]. Contract Details Comparison - The trading unit of aluminum is 5 tons/hand, and that of aluminum alloy is 10 tons/hand. The minimum price change for both is 5 yuan/ton. The trading time, last trading day, and delivery date are similar, but there are differences in details such as trading code, delivery unit, and warehouse receipt validity period. The aluminum alloy futures will be listed for trading on June 10, 2025 [30].

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-06-09 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝周报 01 周度观点 几内亚AXIS矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，博法地区两家矿企发货中断，另一家矿企仅依靠码头剩余库存维持发货。几内 亚矿端扰动尚未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击，其影响要等到7月份才能体现在进口铝土矿的到港量上。氧化铝运行 产能周度环比增加135万吨至9065万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比减少2.9万吨至313.3万吨。随着检修式减产产能的逐步复产，以 及部分新产能的逐步释放，氧化铝运行产能逐步回升。不过几内亚矿端扰动尚未体现到氧化铝的生产，影响仍不可忽视。电解铝运 行产能周度环比持平于4413.9万吨。四川省内铝企复产基本完成，贵州安顺铝厂剩余6万吨产能仍在复产，云铝溢鑫置换产能投产 中，百色银海技改项目12万吨产能将于三季度通电复产。需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比下降0.5%至60.9%。 光伏抢装机退坡和淡季逐步到来，铝下 ...