供应压力较大，锂价弱势寻底 碳酸锂周报20250512 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端-3月锂辉石进口量环比小幅减少 锂精矿月度进口量 锂矿石进口结构 -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 2021-04-01 2021-06-01 2021-08-01 2021-10-01 2021-12-01 2022-02-01 2022-04-01 2022-06-01 2022-08-01 2022-10-01 2022-12-01 2023-02-01 2023-04-01 2023-06-01 2023-08-01 2023-10-01 2023-1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamental outlook for lithium carbonate remains bearish, with the potential for new lows in lithium prices. Although some smelters have cut or halted production due to the rapid decline in lithium prices, the marginal change in domestic supply is uncertain. Imported resources are expected to increase, and upstream production is expected to increase while costs decrease. There is no expected increase in demand, as the weak trend in terminal consumption is emerging, and the new replacement policy's ability to drive potential consumption is waning, which may suppress downstream purchasing power. The short - term decline in prices may be limited, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [3][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported and domestic lithium concentrates, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide all decreased. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased by 0.40%. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,807 tons (-2.97%). The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.75%, while the prices of cobalt - lithium oxide and ternary materials remained unchanged [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,351 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,820 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 289,400 lots. As of May 9, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,048 tons, a decrease of 128 tons from the previous period. Some hard - rock lithium extraction plants have cut or halted production, and the increase in production from the resumption of maintenance in May may be limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of salt - lake production [7] - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The import volume from Chile was 12,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The import volume from Argentina was 4,646 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. The increase in lithium salt shipped from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply scale in May. In March, the import volume of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8% [8][9] - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of May 9, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,442 tons, with an operating rate of 58.6% (a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 37,620 tons (a decrease of 535 tons from the previous period). The production of ternary materials was about 14,555 tons, with an operating rate of 40.0% (a decrease of 5.84 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 13,930 tons (an increase of 205 tons from the previous period). The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly. Although the cathode material production schedule in May continued to expand, the terminal consumption was weak, and the cathode materials still faced over - capacity pressure [9][10] - In the new energy vehicle market, from April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 52.3%. The new energy consumption growth rate showed a pulsed pattern, and the potential consumption driven by policies was waning. The growth rate may decline significantly in the future [11] - As of May 9, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 91,762 tons, a decrease of about 2,807 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased by 21 tons, and the market inventory decreased by 2,828 tons. The social inventory decreased, but downstream purchasing did not pick up, and there was still strong wait - and - see sentiment. If prices stabilize, downstream may have a strong restocking expectation [12] This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and the bearish sentiment persists. Although the short - term decline may be limited due to the strong resistance around 63,000 yuan, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [13] Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million. The sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased year - on - year. The service consumption continued to heat up [14] - On May 7, the General Office of the Guangdong Provincial People's Government issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [14] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, imported lithium concentrates, and the production and supply structure of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products [16][18][21][24][27]

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 13.1 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 68%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.9 billion, a year-on-year decline of 208% [1] - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 3 billion, down 58% quarter-on-quarter and 18% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.2 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 175% and a year-on-year decline of 345% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.584 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 104 million, a year-on-year increase of 102.68% [1] Operational Developments - The company has expanded its lithium chemical product capacity to over 120,000 tons, with Greenbushes currently having a total lithium concentrate capacity of approximately 1.62 million tons per year [2] - In 2024, the company produced 1.41 million tons of lithium concentrate, including 1.353 million tons of chemical-grade lithium concentrate and 57,000 tons of technical-grade lithium concentrate [2] - The construction of key projects is progressing steadily, with the chemical-grade plant No. 3's dry processing facility completed, and the wet processing facility construction is set to advance in the first half of 2025 [2] Investment Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.768 billion, 3.176 billion, and 5.150 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 27, 15, and 9 times [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported an improvement in profitability in Q1, with ongoing expansion in resource capacity [1] - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 208% [1] - The main reasons for the profitability improvement include a shortened pricing cycle for lithium ore and the resolution of tax disputes impacting net profit [1] - The company is expanding its resource capacity, with planned lithium chemical product capacity exceeding 120,000 tons [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.768 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 15, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 67.7% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -7.905 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 208.3% [5] - The gross margin is expected to be 46.1% in 2024, improving to 50.2% by 2027 [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to recover from -18.9% in 2024 to 9.9% in 2027 [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to turn positive, reaching 3.14 yuan by 2027 [5]

Summary of Tianqi Lithium's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium - **Industry**: Lithium Industry Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 104 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.68% [3] - The operating cash flow reached 952 million yuan, indicating robust cash flow performance [3] - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 44.42 million yuan [2][3] Factors Contributing to Performance Improvement - The improvement in performance is attributed to optimized supply chain management and a shortened lithium ore pricing cycle, which mitigated the impact of pricing mechanism mismatches [2][4] - The cost of chemical-grade lithium concentrate has approached the latest procurement prices due to new lithium spodumene purchases and inventory digestion [2][4] - The production capacity ramp-up and technological upgrades at self-owned factories contributed to a year-on-year increase in lithium compounds and derivatives production and sales [2][5] SQM Investment Impact - The tax dispute resolution with SQM has been confirmed for the 2024 fiscal year, with a positive impact on Tianqi's profits due to increased investment returns from SQM [2][6] Procurement and Pricing Strategy - The current procurement price for lithium ore from Talison is approximately 700 to 750 yuan, based on a weighted average of data from four pricing agencies [2][7] - Despite recent declines in lithium ore prices, Talison's cost advantages remain significant, with cash costs showing little change [2][8] Inventory and Sales Strategy - The average inventory cost has decreased to around 700 to 800 yuan, aligning with current market procurement prices [2][9] - The company employs a long-term sales strategy, maintaining good relationships with downstream customers and adjusting pricing based on market conditions [2][13][14] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The lithium industry is facing challenges due to lower prices, but domestic production remains stable, with Talison maintaining cost advantages [2][21] - The decline in lithium prices may accelerate market clearing, benefiting cost-advantaged companies [2][22] Future Production Expectations - Overall production is expected to increase steadily, with new projects anticipated to ramp up significantly by 2026 [2][18] - The first phase of the Kwinana project has seen some production improvements, but overall capacity utilization has not yet met expectations [2][19] Strategic Focus - The company continues to focus on strengthening upstream resources while maintaining a balanced approach across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations [2][31][33] - There is an emphasis on enhancing downstream strategies due to perceived weaknesses in that area over the past few years [2][33] Market Outlook - The company remains focused on long-term demand and industry growth, despite short-term price fluctuations influenced by external factors [2][34] - The company is prepared for potential futures trading but is waiting for favorable market conditions to proceed [2][24] Additional Notes - The company has no immediate plans for production maintenance during the Spring Festival, but regular safety inspections are conducted annually [2][35]

Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 需求指引偏平淡，锂价震荡偏弱 碳酸锂周报20250428 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端：本周国内碳酸锂产量环比减少488吨至16900吨，部分锂盐厂在4-6月检修，供应有少许减量。进口方面，据智利 海关，3月智利出口至中国碳酸锂规模为1.66万吨，环比增加38%，回升至均值水平。本周碳酸锂社会库存环比增加259吨 至13.19万吨，冶炼厂、下游及其他环节的库存分别为5.24万吨、4.28万吨和3.66万吨。冶炼厂和下游小幅累库，整体去 库压力较大。中长期维度，今年碳酸锂供应过剩的压力仍较大； 需求端：据调研，5月下游暂无大的需求增量，531抢装结束后，国内储能面临需求环比下滑的风险。终端市场方面，据乘 联分会4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比增长20%，环比下降 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the expected loose supply of domestic lithium carbonate in April and the weakening price trend, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 30,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 73,000 - 75,000 [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Futures and Spot Price - On April 24, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) all decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 68,380 yuan/ton, down 680 yuan. The trading volume of the active contract was 104,384 lots, a decrease of 111,782 lots from the previous day, and the open interest increased by 6,068 lots. The inventory decreased by 180 tons [1] - The average prices of various lithium minerals (lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, etc.) remained unchanged compared to the previous day, while the average prices of lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/ domestic, 99.2% industrial - grade/ domestic) decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - The average prices of some lithium compounds (lithium hydroxide, lithium hexafluorophosphate) decreased, while the average prices of some ternary precursors and ternary materials increased slightly [1] Industry News and Company Dynamics - In April 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology upgraded the "no fire, no explosion" requirement for electric vehicle power batteries from a recommended standard to a mandatory one [2] - The 20,000 - ton iron phosphate lithium hydroxide material project of Baiyin Times Ruitai New Material Technology Co., Ltd. was officially put into production in Baiyin City, Gansu Province. The total planned production capacity of the project is 100,000 tons, to be built in three phases [2] - Fangyuan Co., Ltd. decided to terminate the "Battery - grade Lithium Carbonate Production and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Lithium - ion Batteries Project" with a planned investment of no more than 2 billion yuan, and has invested 97 million yuan in the project [2] - Linyi Bucha Weimang Environmental Protection New Material Co., Ltd. plans to invest 100 million yuan to build a project for recycling and reusing 10,000 tons of waste lithium - ion batteries annually [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton wet - process project at Greenbushes may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of imported lithium ore. The monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate may increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. Some production lines will undergo maintenance, and new production capacity will be put into operation [3][5] - Demand side: The downstream demand for lithium products is gradually recovering. The production and inventory of some products (such as lithium iron phosphate) may increase, while the export volume of some products (such as lithium hydroxide) may decrease [3][5]

天齐锂业（002466）公告，预计第一季度归属于上市公司股东的净利润为8200万元–1.23亿元，上年同 期为亏损38.97亿元；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为3200万元–4800万元，上年同期为亏损39.17亿元； 基本每股收益为0.05元/股–0.08元/股，上年同期为亏损2.38元/股。公司业绩变动主要原因是锂产品销售 价格下降、化学级锂精矿成本基本贴近最新采购价格、锂化合物及衍生品产销量同比增长以及联营公司 SQM投资收益较上年同期增长。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the current market conditions and trends in the mining and materials industry, particularly focusing on supply and demand dynamics since late February and early March [1][2]. Key Points - The market has been experiencing a weak oscillation, with a notable support level around 75,000, which has shown resistance to downward movement [1][4]. - Recent trading activity reflects a response to previous expectations, indicating a feedback loop between market sentiment and fundamental conditions [2][12]. - Current spot prices for materials, such as electric meal, are around 74,500, aligning with market trends [3]. - Supply and demand expectations have shifted, with indications of a potential oversupply beginning in March due to the resumption of production by major manufacturers [7][12]. - The demand side remains stable but lacks significant growth, with seasonal improvements noted in March [4][10]. - Inventory levels have been increasing, suggesting a potential weakening in demand despite stable order volumes [11][12]. Additional Insights - The cost structure for raw materials is undergoing adjustments, with integrated costs showing a downward trend, which may provide some relief to pricing pressures [5][6]. - The production capacity is expanding, with a notable increase in output and operational rates among major producers [8]. - The sentiment in the market is currently pessimistic, with expectations of further declines in prices, particularly if panic selling occurs [14][15]. - There is a suggestion for investors to consider options trading strategies to mitigate risks associated with current market volatility [15]. Conclusion - Overall, the market is characterized by a fragile balance between supply and demand, with increasing inventories and stable but uninspiring demand. The outlook remains cautious, with potential for further price declines if market conditions do not improve. Investors are advised to monitor developments closely and consider strategic trading options.

Summary of Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ganfeng Lithium - **Ticker**: 1772.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$67,370 million (US$8,661 million) [4] Financial Performance - **4Q24 Net Loss**: Rmb1.4 billion, impacted by fair value loss from PLS stake (estimated at ~Rmb1.1 billion) and share of loss from associates (~Rmb300 million) [1] - **Core Business Performance**: Barely break-even in 4Q24, showing little change quarter-over-quarter [1] - **Balance Sheet Deterioration**: Interest-bearing debt increased by 30% YoY to Rmb32 billion (up from Rmb25 billion in 2024 and Rmb13 billion in 2023) [1] - **Free Cash Flow**: Free cash outflow of Rmb1,118 million in 4Q24, compared to Rmb2.3 billion in 3Q24 [3] - **Net Gearing Ratio**: Increased to 53% in 4Q24 from 44% in 3Q24 and 30% in 4Q23 [3] Segment Performance - **Lithium Compound vs. Battery Segment**: Lithium segment gross profit margin (GpM) was ~10% in FY24, down 3 percentage points YoY, while battery segment GpM averaged 12% in FY24, down from 18% in FY23 [2] Market Conditions - **Lithium Prices**: Significant decline in lithium benchmark prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices down 65% YoY and lithium hydroxide prices down 70% YoY [8] - **Sales Performance**: Gross revenue decreased by 43% YoY to Rmb18.906 billion in 2024 [8] Valuation and Recommendations - **Target Price**: HK$26.00, representing a 19.8% expected return from the current price of HK$21.70 [4] - **Expected Total Return**: 20.0%, including a 0.1% expected dividend yield [4] Risks - **Key Risks**: 1. Increased supply of lithium compounds leading to lower prices for lithium carbonate and hydroxide [11] 2. Weaker-than-expected demand for electric vehicles (EVs) [11] 3. Spodumene concentrate prices declining less than anticipated [11] Additional Insights - **Investment Factors**: The increase in debt is attributed to overseas expansion and share repurchase activities, indicating potential financial cost pressures in the near future [1] - **Analyst Valuation**: Ganfeng-H shares are valued at a 30% discount to Ganfeng-A shares, consistent with historical averages since 2019 [10]