Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil production increased in November, and the market expects inventory growth to pressure the futures. There is a risk of a downward break in domestic palm oil futures. It is necessary to closely monitor whether the domestic palm oil futures can effectively stand above 8,600 points [1]. - Soybean oil: The market doubts China's ability to purchase 850 million tons of soybeans this year. CBOT soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient but demand is limited. However, international oils still have some upward momentum, and it is expected that CBOT soybean oil will likely drive up the domestic oils market after the opening. Currently, the import cost of domestic soybeans remains high, and the spot basis quotation will have limited fluctuations in the short term [1]. Sugar - International sugar: The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil by the end of October has exceeded 38 million tons, and the production forecast for this season is between 40.1 - 40.8 million tons. The price of hydrous ethanol converted to sugar is above 16 cents per pound, and the low sugar - making ratio is expected to be maintained. The futures market for raw sugar lacks new negative factors, and the price is consolidating and bottoming out, expected to remain firm in the short term [3][4]. - Domestic sugar: The new sugar in Guangxi has entered the market, driving down the price of Yunnan sugar. Although processed sugar and beet sugar are affected to some extent, their prices are relatively firm. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [4]. Cotton - Internationally, the USDA's cotton export sales in October were stable, and Chinese buyers have gradually resumed purchases but in limited quantities. The cotton harvest in the US is nearly 80% complete, and the quality of new cotton has improved. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton still faces hedging pressure when rising, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand from textile enterprises for spot cotton is weak, but pre - sales are being delivered, which eases the short - term supply pressure. The basis of spot sales is firm, and there is strong support below Zhengzhou cotton. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger within a range [7]. Eggs - The number of newly - laid hens remains low, and the number of old hens being slaughtered has increased significantly. As a result, the inventory of laying hens is on a downward trend, and production capacity is contracting. The suitable storage weather has enhanced the inventory - holding capacity of each link, and the market supply pressure has been alleviated. With the approaching of "Double 12", promotions by e - commerce platforms and supermarkets are expected to stimulate terminal consumption, mainly for small and medium - sized eggs. Food enterprises also show an intention to stock up at low prices. Under multiple factors, the market demand is expected to improve slightly next week. Egg prices have reached a phased low, and downstream replenishment has increased, so there is a possibility of a slight rebound in egg prices [9]. Meal - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. The fixed - price increases with the market, and the basis slightly declines. Downstream feed enterprises are cautious about replenishing inventory, and the market is unlikely to see a continuous upward trend. It is necessary to continue to monitor China's purchases of US and Brazilian soybeans and the situation of state - reserve auctions. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate, and there is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [12]. Pigs - The market supply is accelerating, and the slaughter is smooth. Although the curing of meat in the southwest region has started, the market demand support is limited, the price of large pigs is weak, and the spot market performs poorly. Pig prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening structure. The Ministry of Agriculture announced that the number of fertile sows in October decreased to 39.9 million heads, and the logic of production capacity reduction is still being traded in the futures market. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can continue to be held. Each contract shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding, but the short - term suppression of the spot market remains, and its sustainability needs to be monitored [15]. Corn - In the northeast region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and with the need for port replenishment due to low inventory and the support of state - reserve purchases, the price remains firm. In the north - central region, the grain sales are adjusted according to the price, but due to the shortage of high - quality grain and transportation difficulties, the price oscillates with limited fluctuations. Overall, the short - term supply of corn is tight, but the current grain - selling progress is slow, with about 70% of the grain yet to be sold, and there is selling pressure before the Spring Festival. On the demand side, traders are cautious about building inventories, deep - processing enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish, and feed enterprises mainly maintain a safety inventory and purchase as needed. In the short term, the futures price remains firm due to the supply - demand mismatch, but the price increase is limited due to the unsolved supply pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the change in the rhythm of corn supply. If the selling pressure materializes as expected, the price may be under pressure [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: From November 26th to 27th, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased from 8,560 to 8,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.18%. The futures price of Y2601 decreased from 8,224 to 8,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The basis decreased from 336 to 310, a decrease of 26 or 8.39%. The spot basis quotation decreased by 10. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 14,532 to 22,029, a decrease of 7,497 or 34.03% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased from 8,290 to 8,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.21%. The futures price of P2601 increased from 8,440 to 8,528 yuan/ton, an increase of 88 yuan/ton or 1.04%. The basis increased from - 150 to - 138, an increase of 12 or 8.00%. The spot basis quotation remained unchanged. The import cost on the disk increased by 20 yuan/ton or 0.22%, and the import profit on the disk increased by 68 yuan/ton or 12.72%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 380 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 10,110 yuan/ton. The futures price of OI601 decreased from 9,810 to 9,772 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton or 0.48%. The basis increased from 291 to 338, an increase of 47 or 16.15%. The spot basis quotation decreased by 50. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) increased from 200 to 222, an increase of 22 or 11.00%. The palm oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) decreased from - 58 to - 62, a decrease of 4 or 6.90%. The rapeseed oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) decreased from 279 to 233, a decrease of 46 or 16.49%. The soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at 170, and the 2601 contract's soybean - palm oil spread decreased from - 548 to - 588, a decrease of 40 or 7.30%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased from 1,650 to 1,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 or 6.06%, and the 2601 contract's rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased from 1,660 to 1,548 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121 or 7.25% [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract decreased from 5,403 to 5,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.06%. The price of the 2605 contract increased from 5,325 to 5,327 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract increased from 15.12 to 15.21 cents per pound, an increase of 0.09 cents per pound or 0.60%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased from 78 to 73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 6.41%. The number of positions in the main contract decreased from 377,132 to 361,517, a decrease of 15,812 or 4.14%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 75 to 0, a decrease of 75 or 100.00%. The number of valid forecasts remained unchanged at 183 [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged at 5,450 and 5,440 yuan/ton respectively. The Nanning basis decreased from 125 to 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 1.60%. The Kunming basis decreased from 115 to 113 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 1.74%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota increased from 4,114 to 4,157 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton or 1.05%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota increased from 5,214 to 5,271 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton or 1.09%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning increased from - 1,336 to - 1,293 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning increased from - 236 to - 179 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton or 24.15% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased from 996.32 to 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales increased from 960.00 to 1,048.00 million tons, an increase of 88.00 million tons or 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased from 618.14 to 646.50 million tons, an increase of 28.36 million tons or 4.59%. The monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased from 45.34 to 26.66 million tons, a decrease of 18.68 million tons or - 41.20%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate decreased from 96.41% to 93.90%, a decrease of 2.51 percentage points or - 2.60%. The cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased from 89.60% to 93.90%, an increase of 4.30 percentage points or 4.80%. The national industrial inventory decreased from 116.00 to 68.21 million tons, a decrease of 47.79 million tons or - 41.20%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Guangxi increased from 27.14 to 44.21 million tons, an increase of 17.07 million tons or 62.90%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan increased from 26.58 to 33.65 million tons, an increase of 7.07 million tons or 26.60%. Sugar imports increased from 40.00 to 55.00 million tons, an increase of 15.00 million tons or 37.50% [3]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract increased from 13,605 to 13,685 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton or 0.59%. The price of the 2601 contract increased from 13,640 to 13,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton or 0.62%. The price of the ICE US cotton main contract increased from 64.61 to 64.73 cents per pound, an increase of 0.12 cents per pound or 0.19%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased from - 35 to - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 14.29%. The number of positions in the main contract increased from 530,074 to 545,268, an increase of 15,194 or 2.87%. The number of warehouse receipts increased from 2,382 to 2,408, an increase of 26 or 1.09%. The number of valid forecasts increased from 1,697 to 1,884, an increase of 187 or 11.02% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased from 14,716 to 14,723 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton or 0.05%. The CC Index of 3128B cotton increased from 14,891 to 14,896 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The FC Index of M: 1% remained unchanged at 12,935 yuan/ton. The price difference between 3128B and the 01 contract decreased from 1,111 to 1,038 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton or 6.57%. The price difference between 3128B and the 05 contract decreased from 1,076 to 998 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan/ton or 7.25%. The price difference between the CC Index of 3128B and the FC Index of M: 1% increased from 1,956 to 1,961 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.26% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased from 293.06 to 363.97 million tons, an increase of 70.91 million tons or 24.2%. The industrial inventory increased from 88.82 to 93.14 million tons, an increase of 4.32 million tons or 4.9%. The import volume decreased from 10.00 to 9.00 million tons, a decrease of 1.00 million tons or - 10.0%. The bonded area inventory increased from 31.10 to 32.80 million tons, an increase of 1.70 million tons or 5.5%. The year - on - year inventory of the textile industry decreased from 0.30 to 0.10, a decrease of 0.20 or - 66.7%. The inventory days of yarn increased from 26.12 to 26.35 days, an increase of 0.23 days or 0.9%. The inventory days of grey cloth decreased from 31.97 to 31.12 days, a decrease of 0.85 days or - 2.7%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased from 43.60 to 53.46 million tons, an increase of 9.86 million tons or 22.6%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises for C32s increased from - 1,720.10 to - 1,645.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.50 yuan/ton or 4.3%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased from 123.05 to 147.08 billion yuan, an increase of 24.03 billion yuan or 19.5%. The year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased from 4.70% to 6.30%, an increase of 1.60 percentage points or 34.0%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products decreased from 119.67 to 112.58 billion US dollars, a decrease of 7.08 billion

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities analysts indicate that palm oil prices may rise this week due to market concerns over declining production in Malaysia and rising prices of other edible oils [1] Group 1: Supply Concerns - Adverse weather conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to negatively impact palm oil supply [1] - Malaysian authorities have confirmed that certain regions are experiencing flooding and landslides due to monsoon rains [1] Group 2: Price Movements - In the week ending November 27, crude palm oil prices fell by over 2%, influenced by a stronger Malaysian ringgit and concerns over declining exports [1] - Recent crude palm oil prices are reported at 4,114 Malaysian ringgit per ton according to the London Stock Exchange Group [1]

豆粕周报 关注美豆出口进展 连粕震荡运行 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆1月合约涨10.75收于1137.25美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅0.95%；豆粕01合约涨32收于3044元/吨，涨幅 1.06%；华南豆粕现货涨10收于3000元/吨，涨幅0.33%； 菜粕01合约涨21收于2452元/吨，涨幅0.86%；广西菜粕 现货涨40收于2550元/吨，涨幅1.59%。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 2025 年 12 月 1 日 ⚫ 美国农业部陆续公布出口销售报告，上周民间出口商报 告向中国出口销售43.5万吨大豆，关注中美之间大豆采 购协议进一步的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, agricultural by - products are in a volatile range, soft commodities like sugar have slight fluctuations, cotton is weakly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are weakly and narrowly consolidating [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,108, down 7 with a decline of 0.17%, trading volume of 10.35 million lots (down 0.40 million lots), and open interest of 19.04 million lots (down 0.04 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open - interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.65 (down 0.17), and the open - interest PCR is 0.98 (down 0.00) [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the exercise prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option underlying assets are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200 and the support level is 4,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different implied volatility values, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes compared to the annual average. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.97%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.39% (down 0.07% compared to the previous period) [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: Fundamentally, China's purchase of US soybeans has advanced the shipping schedule. The market has a high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal, and the supply pressure is still large. The price has shown a pattern of rebound after a decline. Option - factor research shows that the implied volatility is below the historical average, the open - interest PCR is above 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 4,200 and 4,000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean meal**: The oil mill's operating rate is about 61.41%. The price has shown a downward - then - upward trend with a weakening overall. The implied volatility is below the historical average, the open - interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 2,950 and 2,800 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm oil**: Malaysian palm oil production has increased, while exports have decreased. The price is in a weak bearish pattern. The implied volatility is below the historical average, the open - interest PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 9,500 and 9,000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bearish put option spread, a bearish call + put option selling combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The peanut market is in a high - level consolidation phase. The price has shown a short - term bullish trend. The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the open - interest PCR is around 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 8,000 and 7,700 respectively. A long collar strategy is recommended for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Live pig**: The average slaughter weight of live pigs has increased. The price is in a weak bearish pattern. The implied volatility is above the historical average, the open - interest PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 14,000 and 11,000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Egg**: The egg price has shown a slight increase with sufficient supply and weak demand. The price is in a pattern of rebound and large - scale consolidation. The implied volatility is at a relatively high level, the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 4,000 and 2,800 respectively. A neutral call + put option selling combination strategy is recommended [11]. - **Apple**: The new - season apple storage work has ended. The price is in a pattern of continuous recovery and high - level consolidation. The implied volatility is above the historical average, the open - interest PCR is above 0.90, and the pressure and support levels are 10,000 and 8,000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The new - season jujube production is expected to decline, and the inventory pressure is large. The price is in a weak bearish pattern. The implied volatility has risen rapidly to above the historical average, the open - interest PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 12,600 and 10,000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bearish wide - straddle option selling combination and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have started crushing has decreased. The price is in a weak bearish pattern. The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, the open - interest PCR is around 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 5,700 and 5,400 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The spinning mill's operating rate is stable, and the commercial inventory has increased. The price is in a short - term bullish pattern. The implied volatility is at a low level, the open - interest PCR is below 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 13,600 and 13,000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option selling combination and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn**: The corn inventory in northern ports has increased, and the trading volume is light. The price is in a pattern of weak rebound. The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 2,200 and 2,000 respectively. A bullish call + put option selling combination strategy is recommended [13]. - **Starch**: The price of starch is in a weak pattern. The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 3,000 and 2,500 respectively. A bullish call + put option selling combination strategy is recommended [13]. 3.5.5 Other Options - **Log**: The price of log is in a weak pattern. The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 850 and 700 respectively. A bullish call + put option selling combination strategy is recommended [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: 11月1 - 25日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比增加5.49%，基本面偏空，毛棕油期货或再次承压回落调整，连棕油期货有向下破位下跌风险，需关注能否有效站稳8600点 [1] - Soybean oil:市场对中国年内采购850万吨大豆存疑，美豆缺乏竞争力，巴西大豆预计创纪录，CBOT大豆承压，国内豆油供应充足但需求有限，1月合约上方压力强抑制涨幅，国际油脂有上涨动力，预计CBOT豆油开盘补涨影响国内市场，短期内现货基差报价波动不大 [1] Sugar - 巴西中南部本榨季截至10月底累计产糖量突破3800万吨，预计产量4010 - 4080万吨，含水乙醇折糖价在16美分/磅以上，低制糖比有望保持，原糖缺乏新利空题材，价格巩固筑底，预计短期内坚挺，广西新糖上市带动云南糖价下跌，但加工糖、甜菜糖价格坚挺给予支撑，郑糖预计底部震荡 [3][4] Cotton - 国际上10月USDA出口销售平稳，中国买家采购量不大，美棉收割近8成且新花质量上升，国内郑棉上行面临套保压力但不集中，需求端纺企采购现货冷清但预售缓解供应压力，现货基差坚挺，下方支撑强，短期棉价或稳中略偏强区间震荡 [7] Eggs - 新开产蛋鸡数量低，老母鸡出栏量增加，在产蛋鸡存栏量回落，产能收缩，存储天气适宜使各环节持货能力增强，市场供应压力改善，“双12”临近，电商和商超促销预计刺激终端消费，食品企业有抄底备货意愿，下周市场需求或小幅好转，蛋价降至低位，下游补货，价格有小幅反弹可能 [9] Meal - 中国对美豆征收13%关税不利于美豆出口，巴西大豆销售影响美豆情绪，1 - 2月中国尚有800万吨左右采购缺口，国内豆粕宽松格局延续，一口价随盘上涨，基差回落，下游补库谨慎，行情难持续上涨，关注采购动向和国储拍卖情况，豆粕维持震荡，短期追高有回落风险 [12] Pigs - 市场供应加速，出栏顺畅，西南腌腊开启但需求支撑有限，大猪价格疲软，现货表现差，猪价预计震荡偏弱，关注年底压力释放节奏，10月能繁母猪存栏下滑至3990万头，盘面产能去化逻辑仍在交易，月间反套可继续持有，各合约有企稳反弹迹象但受现货短期压制，关注持续性 [15] Corn - 东北地区农户惜售，港口低库存补货及收储支撑价格坚挺，华北地区售粮随价格调整，受优质粮紧缺和外运受阻价格震荡但波动有限，玉米阶段性供应偏紧但售粮进度慢，约7成粮待售，年前有卖压，需求端贸易商建库谨慎，深加工企业有补货需求，饲料企业随用随采，长期建库积极性不佳，短期供需错配使盘面坚挺，但供应压力未释放价格冲高受限，关注上量节奏，若卖压出现价格或承压 [18] Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Futures and Spot Prices: 11月27日江苏一级豆油现价8460元/吨，较26日跌100元/吨，跌幅1.18%；Y2601期价8150元/吨，跌74元/吨，跌幅0.91%；基差310，跌26，跌幅8.39%；仓单14532，较26日减少7497，跌幅34.03% [1] - Palm Oil: 11月27日广东24度棕榈油现价8390元/吨，较26日涨100元/吨，涨幅1.21%；P2601期价8528元/吨，涨88元/吨，涨幅1.04%；基差 - 138，涨12，涨幅8.00%；广州港1月盘面进口成本8995元/吨，涨20元/吨，涨幅0.22%；盘面进口利润 - 467元/吨，涨68元/吨，涨幅12.72%；仓单380，无变化 [1] - Rapeseed Oil: 11月27日江苏三级菜籽油价10110元/吨，无变化；OI601期价9772元/吨，跌47元/吨，跌幅0.48%；基差338，涨47，涨幅16.15%；仓单3965，无变化 [1] - Spreads: 11月27日豆油01 - 05跨期价差222，较26日涨22，涨幅11.00%；棕榈油01 - 05跨期价差 - 62，跌4，跌幅6.90%；菜籽油01 - 05跨期价差233，跌46，跌幅16.49%；现货豆棕价差170，无变化；2601豆棕价差 - 588，跌40，跌幅7.30%；现货菜豆油价差1550，跌100，跌幅6.06%；2601菜豆油价差1548，跌121，跌幅7.25% [1] Sugar - Futures Market: 白糖2601现值5400元/吨，较前值跌3元/吨，跌幅0.06%；白糖2605现值5327元/吨，涨2元/吨，涨幅0.04%；ICE原糖主力15.21美分/磅，涨0.09美分/磅，涨幅0.60%；白糖1 - 5价差73元/吨，跌5元/吨，跌幅6.41%；主力合约持仓量361517，较前值减少15812，跌幅4.14%；仓单数量0，较前值减少75，跌幅100.00%；有效预报183，无变化 [3] - Spot Market: 南宁现货价5450元/吨，无变化；昆明5440元/吨，无变化；南宁基差123元/吨，较前值跌2元/吨，跌幅1.60%；昆明基差113元/吨，跌2元/吨，跌幅1.74%；进口巴西（配额内）糖4157元/吨，较前值涨43元/吨，涨幅1.05%；进口巴西（配额外）糖5271元/吨，涨57元/吨，涨幅1.09%；进口巴西（配额内）与南宁价差 - 1293元/吨，涨43元/吨，涨幅3.22%；进口巴西（配额外）与南宁价差 - 179元/吨，涨57元/吨，涨幅24.15% [3] - Industry Situation: 全国食糖产量累计值1116.21万吨，较前值增加119.89万吨，涨幅12.03%；销量累计值1048.00万吨，增加88.00万吨，涨幅9.17%；广西食糖产量累计值646.50万吨，增加28.36万吨，涨幅4.59%；广西食糖销量当月值26.66万吨，较前值减少18.68万吨，跌幅41.20%；全国销糖率累计93.90%，较前值下降2.51%，跌幅2.60%；广西销糖率累计93.90%，较前值上升4.30%，涨幅4.80%；全国工业库存68.21万吨，较前值减少47.79万吨，跌幅41.20%；广西食糖工业库存44.21万吨，较前值增加17.07万吨，涨幅62.90%；云南食糖工业库存33.65万吨，增加7.07万吨，涨幅26.60%；食糖进口55.00万吨，较前值增加15.00万吨，涨幅37.50% [3] Cotton - Futures Market: 棉花2605现值13685元/吨，较前值涨80元/吨，涨幅0.59%；棉花2601现值13725元/吨，涨82元/吨，涨幅0.62%；ICE美棉主力64.73美分/磅，涨0.12美分/磅，涨幅0.19%；棉花5 - 1价差 - 40元/吨，较前值跌5元/吨，跌幅14.29%；主力合约持仓量545268，较前值增加15194，涨幅2.87%；仓单数量2408，较前值增加26，涨幅1.09%；有效预报1884，较前值增加187，涨幅11.02% [7] - Spot Market: 新疆到厂价（3128B）14723元/吨，较前值涨7元/吨，涨幅0.05%；CC Index（3128B）14896元/吨，涨5元/吨，涨幅0.03%；FC Index（M: 1%）12935元/吨，无变化；3128B - 01合约价差1038元/吨，较前值跌73元/吨，跌幅6.57%；3128B - 05合约价差998元/吨，跌78元/吨，跌幅7.25%；CC Index（3128B） - FC Index（M: 1%）价差1961元/吨，涨5元/吨，涨幅0.26% [7] - Industry Situation: 商业库存363.97万吨，较前值增加70.91万吨，涨幅24.2%；工业库存93.14万吨，增加4.32万吨，涨幅4.9%；进口量9.00万吨，较前值减少1.00万吨，跌幅10.0%；保税区库存32.80万吨，增加1.70万吨，涨幅5.5%；纺织业存货同比0.10，较前值下降0.20，跌幅66.7%；纱线库存天数26.35天，较前值增加0.23天，涨幅0.9%；坯布库存天数31.12天，较前值减少0.85天，跌幅2.7%；棉花出疆发运量53.46万吨，较前值增加9.86万吨，涨幅22.6%；纺企C32s即期加工利润 - 1645.60元/吨，较前值增加74.50元/吨，涨幅4.3%；服装鞋帽针纺织品类零售额1470.80亿元，较前值增加240.30亿元，涨幅19.5%；服装鞋帽针纺织品类当月同比6.30%，较前值上升1.60%，涨幅34.0%；纺织纱线、织物及制品出口额112.58亿美元，较前值减少7.08亿美元，跌幅5.9%；纺织纱线、织物及制品出口当月同比 - 9.10%，较前值下降15.51%，跌幅242.1%；服装及衣着附件出口额110.03亿美元，较前值减少14.50亿美元，跌幅11.6%；服装及衣着附件出口同比 - 15.96%，较前值下降7.99%，跌幅100.2% [7] Eggs - Futures Market: 鸡蛋01合约现值3293元/500KG，较前值涨11元/500KG，涨幅0.34%；鸡蛋02合约现值3073元/500KG，涨17元/500KG，涨幅0.56%；基差 - 314元/500KG，较前值跌11元/500KG，跌幅3.63%；1 - 2价差220元/500KG，跌6元/500KG，跌幅2.65% [9] - Spot Market: 鸡蛋产区价格2.98元/斤，无变化；蛋鸡苗价格2.70元/羽，无变化；淘汰鸡价格3.80元/斤，较前值跌0.08元/斤，跌幅2.06%；蛋料比2.32，较前值下降0.08，跌幅3.33%；养殖利润 - 27.35元/羽，较前值减少4.29元/羽，跌幅18.60% [9] Meal - Soybean Meal: 江苏豆粕现价3030元/吨，无变化；M2601期价3044元/吨，较前值跌11元/吨，跌幅0.36%；基差 - 14，较前值涨11，涨幅44.00%；江苏现货基差报价m2601 - 50，较前值降1；巴西2月船期盘面进口榨利14，较前值增加9，涨幅180.0%；仓单0，较前值减少22592，跌幅100.0% [12] - Rapeseed Meal: 江苏菜粕现价2460元/吨，较前值跌10元/吨，跌幅0.40%；RM2601期价2452元/吨，跌17元/吨，跌幅0.69%；基差8，较前值涨7，涨幅700.00%；加拿大1月船期盘面进口榨利690，较前值减少68，跌幅8.97%；仓单0，无变化 [12] - Soybean: 哈尔滨大豆现价3940元/吨，无变化；豆一主力合约期价4108元/吨，较前值涨2元/吨，涨幅0.05%；基差 - 168，较前值跌2，跌幅1.20%；江苏进口大豆现价3950元/吨，无变化；豆二主力合约期价3760元/吨，较前值跌7元/吨，跌幅0.19%；基差190，较前值涨7，涨幅3.83%；仓单15645，无变化 [12] - Spreads: 豆粕01 - 05跨期价差100，较前值跌18，跌幅8.29%；菜粕01 - 05跨期价差37，较前值跌18，跌幅32.73%；现货油粕比2.83，无变化；主力合约油粕比2.71，较前值涨0.016，涨幅0.61%；豆菜粕价差（现货）570，较前值涨10，涨幅1.79%；豆菜粕价差（2601）592，较前值涨6，涨幅1.02% [12] Pigs - Futures Market: 主力合约基差 - 115，较前值涨120，涨幅51.06%；生猪2605现值11935元/吨，较前值跌55元/吨，跌幅0.46%；生猪2601现值11465元/吨，跌120元/吨，跌幅1.04%；生猪1 - 5价差 - 470，较前值跌65，跌幅16.05%；主力合约持仓107542，较前值减少9780，跌幅8.34%；仓单数据无效 [15] - Spot Market: 河南现货价11350元/吨，无变化；山东11350元/吨，较前值涨50元/吨；某地区（未明确）11300元/吨，较前值跌100元/吨；辽宁11200元/吨，涨50元/吨；广东11410元/吨，较前值跌200元/吨；湖南10910元/吨，跌50元/吨；河北11400元/吨，较前值跌150元/吨 [15] - Spot Indicators: 样本点屠宰量 - 日207425，较前值增加598，涨幅0.29%；白条价格 - 周18.28元/公斤，无变化；仔猪

玉米：本周，现货市场依旧维持紧张的氛围，农户销售进度加快，但是市场供应依旧短缺，粮源主要被贸易商囤积。短期看，供应保持低位与 下游企业补库需求的双重驱动下，玉米价格仍将保持强劲势头。值得关注的是，贸易商屯粮待涨，一定程度上延缓了售粮压力的集中释放，后 续关注产区粮源供应变化和港库库存的累积状况。中长期来看，本年度玉米市场供需格局仍维持偏紧态势，种植成本仍将对价格形成强支撑， 预计在农户售粮压力逐步释放后，现货价格有望开启新一轮上涨周期。 | 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/01 | 玉米/淀粉 | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/24 2070 | 2200 2200 | 2380 | -20 | 30 244 | 2700 | 2850 | 170 | -1 | | 2025/11/25 2070 | 22 ...

Core Points - The 2025 Hubei Agricultural Expo officially opened in Wuhan, showcasing nearly 2,000 enterprises and over 10,000 unique agricultural products, emphasizing the theme of "Building a New Era of Fish and Rice Country" [2][3] - The expo aims to promote brand communication, enhance consumer experience, and facilitate the integration of agriculture and technology, with a focus on rural revitalization and modern agricultural practices [2][6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The Hubei Agricultural Expo has been held five times since its inception in 2021, with this year's event being more comprehensive, technologically advanced, and interactive, featuring six exhibition halls and 16 exhibition areas across 60,000 square meters [3][4] - The expo serves as a platform for agricultural enterprises to explore new business opportunities while presenting a visual and taste experience for attendees [3] Key Achievements - A significant signing event took place, resulting in 10 investment projects with a total value of 24.469 billion yuan, aimed at boosting rural industry development and resource aggregation for comprehensive revitalization [2][6] - The expo features a variety of provincial public brands, including specialties like Poyang River crayfish and Xiantao eel, attracting considerable public interest [4] Industry Collaboration - The expo has expanded its outreach by increasing the number of invited external exhibition groups from six to ten, showcasing representative local products and flavors from various provinces [4] - The event facilitates direct connections between producers and consumers, with a focus on precise market matching and innovative initiatives to enhance trade interactions [6][7] Future Prospects - The Hubei Agricultural Expo is positioned as a key driver for agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, with ongoing activities planned until December 2, including themed days and promotional events [8][9] - The establishment of the Hubei Agricultural Exhibition Industry Alliance aims to consolidate resources and promote collaborative efforts in the agricultural sector, transitioning from individual efforts to collective strategies [6][7]

Core Insights - Zhejiang's specialty agricultural products, including traditional Chinese medicinal herbs and fresh mushrooms, are gaining popularity in international markets, leading to a steady increase in export orders [1][2] - The Zhejiang Customs has implemented innovative regulatory measures and convenient services to enhance the efficiency of customs clearance and support the export of these products [1][2] Group 1: Export Growth and Demand - The demand for high-quality medicinal herbs and fresh mushrooms from Zhejiang is rising, with these products becoming preferred choices for winter health supplements both domestically and internationally [1] - Export orders for Zhejiang's specialty agricultural products are increasing year by year, driven by their superior quality [1] Group 2: Customs Support and Efficiency - Zhejiang Customs has introduced a "door-to-door" service model to assist agricultural enterprises unfamiliar with export processes, providing expert guidance throughout the entire management process from cultivation to export [1] - The establishment of a "green channel" for specialty agricultural products allows for 24-hour appointment customs clearance and "cloud issuance" of certificates, significantly improving the efficiency of the export process [1][2] Group 3: Innovative Regulatory Measures - To address the challenges of transporting perishable products like fresh mushrooms, Zhejiang Customs has implemented remote inspection methods, allowing real-time monitoring of goods via mobile video terminals, reducing inspection time from hours to under 20 minutes [1] - The integration of "immediate reporting and inspection" services and local inspection green channels ensures that fresh products like broccoli can be exported without delays, maintaining their quality from farm to international markets [2]

Core Viewpoint - China emphasizes the importance of promoting common development through international cooperation, aiming to share opportunities and benefits with countries worldwide, thereby injecting new momentum into global economic growth [1] Group 1: Trade Opportunities - The opening of the Chinese market has led to significant growth in exports from developing countries, such as Pakistan's pine nuts, which saw an export value of over $18 million in 2024, a 14% increase year-on-year [3] - South Africa's macadamia nuts are projected to have exports to China reach approximately 48% of their total production in 2024, highlighting China's role as a key partner in the macadamia industry [4] - The eighth China International Import Expo has facilitated the entry of products from least developed countries, with a 23.5% increase in participation from these nations, resulting in a cumulative intended transaction amount of $4.18 billion over seven years [5] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - China is actively enhancing trade facilitation measures, such as zero-tariff policies and streamlined customs processes, which significantly lower trade costs and barriers for developing countries [7] - The establishment of cross-border e-commerce platforms and improved logistics has created new opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises from developing nations to access the Chinese market [7] - China's commitment to multilateralism and its role as a major trading partner for developing countries are recognized as crucial for global economic stability and growth [7]

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 随着中美贸易政策博弈尘埃落定，市场逻辑已从前期的政策驱动逐步回归基本面主导。供应端来看，本年度巴西大豆丰产为我国提供 了充足的进口来源，国内油厂大豆及豆粕库存均攀升至历史高位，市场供应呈现宽松格局。尽管未来美国大豆进口预期有所改善，但 豆粕价格并未出现大幅回落，核心原因在于...... 定价逻辑切换，静待供需改善 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 期货研究报告 | 饲料年报 2025-11-30 定价逻辑切换，静待供需改善 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0 ...