Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International: Optimistic sentiment about trade boosted CBOT soybeans, which may break through the trading range since mid - April. The market expects MPOB to raise palm oil inventory in the May report, but crude oil's rise is positive for bio - energy, so Malaysian palm oil is expected to rebound following the external market [7][8] - Domestic: As the clearance of imported soybeans speeds up, the domestic soybean oil inventory is rising, with high supply pressure in the future. The easing of Sino - US trade relations has mixed effects on domestic soybean oil, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The domestic palm oil inventory is decreasing, and its price mainly follows the import cost. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is rising, but the medium - to - long - term supply of imported rapeseed is uncertain, and Canadian rapeseed has been strong recently, so rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for the first 90 days and 10% remaining, and cancel tariffs imposed by other executive orders [3] - As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China increased by 2.76 million tons from last week, a 4.40% increase [3] - As of Friday, the sales of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop reached 57% of the expected output, 6.3% higher than a month ago but lower than last year and the historical average [3] - China and Argentina signed a procurement letter of intent worth about $900 million for agricultural products, including soybeans, corn, and vegetable oils, to reduce dependence on US agricultural products [4] Fundamental Data Charts - Not detailed in the given content Views and Strategies - International: CBOT soybeans are expected to break through the trading range, and Malaysian palm oil is expected to rebound [7][8] - Domestic: Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate within a range, palm oil price follows the import cost, and rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Cotton and sugar prices are rising, while hog prices are falling. Other products such as soybean meal, palm oil, etc., also have their own specific market conditions and price trends [1]. Summary by Variety Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract soared. Positive factors include the substantial progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks, domestic macro - benefits, and a decline in port inventory. However, the textile industry is in the off - season, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 13100 and resistance at 13300 [2][3]. Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract rose strongly. Overseas market price increases and strong domestic demand (April sales rate reached a 25 - year high) boosted the price. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 5859 and resistance at 5900 [4][8]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main 2509 contract fluctuated, first falling and then rising, but the downward trend remained. The increase in domestic soybean imports and inventory put pressure on prices. The strategy is to hold light short positions on rallies, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2912 [7]. Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract rebounded, driven by the strengthening of crude oil. However, the increase in production and inventory in Malaysia and the expected increase in domestic supply limit the rebound space. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 7940 and resistance at 8076 [9]. Soybean No.1 - The soybean No.1 main 2507 contract rebounded and fluctuated. Although there is support from less remaining beans in the Northeast, weak demand and the expected increase in imported soybeans limit the rebound space. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 4127 and resistance at 4185 [11]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract fluctuated upward, driven by the strengthening of crude oil. However, the increase in imported soybeans and inventory may limit the upward space. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 7762 and resistance at 7852 [14]. Corn - The corn main 2507 contract adjusted at a high level. Profit - taking and the expected increase in US corn imports put pressure on the price, but factors such as less remaining grain in the producing area and strong demand limit the adjustment space. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 2360 and resistance at 2389 [15][17]. Hog - The hog 2509 contract continued to decline weakly. High inventory and weak demand led to the downward trend. The strategy is to short on rallies, with support at 13800 and resistance at 13930 [18]. Egg - The egg main 2506 contract rebounded. Spot price increases due to补货 demand and approaching festivals supported the rebound, but high egg - laying hen inventory limits the rebound space. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 2898 and resistance at 2940 [20]. Apple - The apple main 2510 contract rebounded slightly. Although the inventory is at a five - year low, the slowdown in sales and uncertain fruit - setting conditions due to abnormal weather make the market trend uncertain. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 7800 and resistance at 7903 [22].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The supply of peanuts is still abundant due to the large production in 2024 and weak downstream demand, so the peanut price is expected to be relatively stable in the short term. The market is currently trading based on the oil mill purchase price and rhythm. Recently, the peanut price has remained stable, and the oil mill's theoretical profit from peanut crushing is in the black. The price of peanut 10 continues to rise, and there are still many uncertainties such as weather as it trades new crops, especially considering the recent drought in Henan and other places [5][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data - **Futures Market**: PK504 closed at 8100, up 68 (0.84%) with a trading volume of 12 (up 33.33%) and an open interest of 42 (up 16.67%); PK510 closed at 8222, up 116 (1.41%) with a trading volume of 62,563 (up 96.51%) and an open interest of 87,229 (up 7.11%); PK601 closed at 8120, up 66 (0.81%) with a trading volume of 430 (up 175.64%) and an open interest of 2,584 (up 1.45%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of peanuts in Henan slightly increased, while that in the Northeast remained stable. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.1 yuan/jin, and that in Changtu, Liaoning was also 4.1 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.05 - 4.2 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The price in Junan, Shandong was 3.95 yuan/jin. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 7950 yuan/ton. The purchase price of peanut oil mills was stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 7350 - 7650 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price at 8110 yuan/ton. The price of domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil was stable at 15000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the price of small - squeezed fragrant peanut oil was 17000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [3][5]. - **By - product Market**: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal decreased to 3030 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The unit protein price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was relatively high, and the short - term peanut meal was weak, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Import Price**: The price of imported Sudan peanuts was 7950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - **Spread**: PK01 - PK04 spread was 20, down 2; PK04 - PK10 spread was - 122, down 48; PK10 - PK01 spread was 102, up 50 [3]. 2. Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan slightly increased, and that in the Northeast remained stable. It is expected that the peanut spot will be relatively stable in the short term. The purchase price of peanut oil mills was stable, and the prices of peanut oil and soybean oil increased [5]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: Short - term long on peanut 10 at low prices with a range - bound trading mindset [10]. - **Spread Strategy**: Take long positions in the peanut 10 - 1 spread at low prices [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Sell pk510 - p - 7800 [12]. 4. Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams showing the price of Shandong peanut spot, peanut oil mill's crushing profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 3 - 10 contracts [14][18][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market supply and demand is generally loose, and the new US soybean crop is expected to face pressure. The South American market is in the peak supply period, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. In the domestic market, the arrival volume of soybeans is expected to increase, and the supply situation is expected to improve, but there is still some pressure [2][3]. - The raw sugar is affected by the expected high - yield in Brazil and shows a weak trend, but is expected to fluctuate due to the support of buying orders below. The domestic sugar market has a higher sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, driving Zhengzhou sugar to be stronger than raw sugar. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][11]. - The macro - factors will still have a significant impact on the oil market. In the short term, the Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory significantly in April and continue to increase production and accumulate inventory later. The domestic soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate, and the basis may weaken. The domestic rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, and the decline space may be limited [17][20]. - The US corn is sowing faster and is in a bottom - shock state. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot price is still strong, but the increase space may be limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [28][29]. - The recent enthusiasm for hog slaughter is average, but the supply pressure is still reflected due to the increase in slaughter weight. The futures market is expected to face pressure [35]. - The peanut spot trading volume is still small, and the downstream consumption is weak. However, the large - scale oil mills' increased purchases boost the market, and the new - season peanuts in October still have room for rebound [39][43]. - The overall supply of eggs is expected to be sufficient, and the egg price has shown signs of stability recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [49][51]. - The apple cold - storage inventory is at a low level this year, and the supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The demand is okay, and the spot price is strong. The apple price is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger [54][58]. - The short - term supply of cotton is sufficient, and the demand is average. The market has entered the off - season. Considering the uncertainty of global trade policies, especially the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, it is recommended to wait and see [63][66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**：CBOT大豆指数持平于1043.75美分/蒲式耳，CBOT豆粕指数下跌0.67%至297.4美元/短吨[2] - **相关资讯**：预计美国2025/26年度大豆期末库存为3.62亿蒲式耳，产量料为43.38亿蒲式耳；中国4月大豆进口608.1万吨；国际豆粕出口主要供应国出口量转降；截至5月9日当周，油厂大豆实际压榨量184.6万吨，开机率51.89%，大豆库存较上周增加3.3%，同比增加13.28%，豆粕库存较上周增加9.76%，同比减少84.36%[2] - **逻辑分析**：国际市场供需偏宽松，美豆新作有压力，南美处于供应高峰期价格承压；国内大豆到港量增加，油厂开机率恢复，供应好转但仍有压力[3] - **交易策略**：单边偏空思路为主；套利观望；期权卖出宽跨式策略[6] Sugar - **外盘情况**：昨日ICE美糖主力合约上涨0.32（1.83%）至17.82美分/磅[7] - **重要资讯**：截至2025年4月底，本制糖期全国产糖1110.72万吨，同比增加11.59%，销售食糖724.46万吨，同比增加26.07%，销糖率65.22%；印度2025 - 26年度糖产量预计达3500万吨，增长26%；现货方面，部分制糖集团和加工厂报价有调整，后半段成交尚可[8][9][10] - **逻辑分析**：原糖受巴西丰产预期影响偏弱，预计震荡运行；国内产销比高、库存低带动郑糖强于原糖，预计短期震荡运行，关注广西天气[11] - **交易策略**：单边震荡运行，波段操作；套利观望；期权卖出宽跨式期权[12][13][14] Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**：隔夜CBOT美豆油主力价格变动0.25%至48.64美分/磅；BMD马棕油主力价格变动0.37%至3815林吉特/吨，周一马盘休市[16] - **相关资讯**：巴西2024/25年度大豆作物商业化销售达预期产量的57%，较去年同期和历史均值延迟；阿根廷2024/25年度大豆收割率为45%，落后去年同期；加拿大油菜籽出口量增加，库存为120.1万吨；5月9日，油脂总成交环比增加63%[17][18][19] - **逻辑分析**：中美谈判达成共识，宏观因素影响盘面；4月马棕累库明显，后期继续增产累库，中国和印度买船积极性增加；巴西大豆到港，国内油厂压榨量增加，豆油库存累库，基差或走弱；国内菜油供大于求，盘面受国际关系影响反复，下跌空间有限[20] - **交易策略**：单边预计短期油脂震荡运行，豆油和菜油有利多支撑，棕榈油基本面转弱，可轻仓试多博反弹或反弹后逢高空；套利YP 09可部分止盈部分持有；期权观望[21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**：CBOT玉米期货外盘反弹，主力合约反弹0.2%，收盘为450.5美分/蒲[27] - **重要资讯**：截至5月9日当周，CBOT玉米期货延续下跌，美国玉米播种顺利，巴西二季玉米丰产预期压制价格；美国玉米主产州未来6 - 10日部分地区气温低于正常、降水高于正常；全国饲料企业平均库存增加；5月12日北港收购价稳定，华北产区周末回调[28] - **逻辑分析**：美玉米播种加快，底部震荡；国内玉米供应少，东北玉米上涨，港口价格稳定，抛储和糙米拍卖传闻影响下，华北玉米现货回落，小麦价格上涨，玉米现货仍偏强，中长期上涨空间有限，07玉米高位震荡，期现价差缩小[29] - **持仓建议**：单边外盘07玉米450美分/蒲附近有支撑，07玉米等待回调，观望为主；套利玉米和淀粉套利震荡操作，逢低做扩；期权有现货的可考虑逢高累沽策略[32][33] Hogs - **相关资讯**：生猪价格整体震荡，部分地区持平或有小幅度涨跌；仔猪价格下跌，母猪价格持平；农产品批发价格指数和猪肉平均价格下降[35] - **逻辑分析**：近期生猪出栏积极性一般，但出栏体重增加使供应压力体现，大小猪价差回落或使出栏增加，关注现货跌价情况，期货预计有压力[35] - **交易策略**：单边偏空思路为主；套利LH79反套；期权卖出宽跨式策略[38] Peanuts - **重要资讯**：各地花生通货米有报价区间；部分油厂到货及成交价格情况；花生油报价偏强，有议价空间；花生粕走货少；国内花生油样本企业花生库存减少，花生油库存增加[39][40] - **逻辑分析**：花生现货成交少，新季花生价格稳定，进口花生价格稳定、进口量大幅减少，花生油厂收购价格稳定，下游消费弱；豆粕现货回落，花生粕价格稳定，油厂有利润，大型油厂收购量增加；市场预计新季种植面积增加，河南等地干旱易炒作天气，10花生有反弹空间[41][43] - **持仓建议**：单边10花生轻仓逢低短多；套利观望；期权观望[44][45][46] Eggs - **重要资讯**：主产区和主销区均价下跌后全国主流价格多数上涨；4月份全国在产蛋鸡存栏量增加，样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量增加；5月9日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量增加；5月1日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量减少，生产和流通环节库存增加；鸡蛋盈利减少，蛋鸡养殖预期利润上涨[48][49][50] - **交易逻辑**：鸡蛋整体供应充足，在产存栏量高，蛋价跌至当前位置后有稳定迹象，建议前期空单获利平仓观望[51] - **交易策略**：单边空单可考虑获利平仓；套利多08空09；期权观望[52] Apples - **重要资讯**：截至2025年4月16日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量减少，去库同比加快；2024 - 2025年苹果进出口量有变化；冷库苹果剩余量低于往年同期，山东产地冷库惜售，出货速度后期放缓，陕西产区价格稳定，出货情况尚可但可供交易货量不大；山东和陕西产区现货价格有变动，栖霞存储商利润增加[54][55][56] - **交易逻辑**：今年苹果冷库库存处于低位，新果上市前供应大概率偏紧，需求端走货尚可，现货价格偏强，4月份西部产区天气影响部分产区坐果，预计苹果走势震荡略偏强[58] - **交易策略**：单边AP10短期逢低建仓多单；套利建议先观望；期权建议先观望[59][60][61] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**：昨日ICE美棉主力合约下跌0.01（0.01%）至66.72美分/磅[62] - **重要资讯**：中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，将建立磋商机制；美棉主产区和德州干旱指数下行；CFTC发布ICE棉花期货合约ON - CALL数据，卖方未点价合约有变动[63][64][65] - **交易逻辑**：基本面棉花短期供应充足，需求一般，进入需求淡季，纱线和坯布库存有累库迹象；全球经济和贸易政策不确定性大，关注中美关税谈判后续动态，建议观望[66] - **交易策略**：单边预计未来美棉走势大概率震荡略偏强，郑棉近期宏观不确定性大，建议观望；套利空09多01；期权观望[67][68][69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, and the palm oil market is affected by the entry into the production - increasing season, with a weakening fundamental situation compared to other oils. The export situation of US soybeans is still under pressure, and the domestic supply of soybeans and soybean meal in the second quarter is expected to be sufficient, which will continue to put pressure on the price. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures such as soybean oil, palm oil, and others are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the soybean oil main contract closed at 7786, with a price increase of 26 and a percentage increase of 0.34%. [2] - **Spread and Ratio - Spread**: The current and previous values of spreads and ratio - spreads for various futures are given, such as the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil being 54 currently and 62 previously. [2] 3.2 International Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures like BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. are provided. For instance, BMD palm oil closed at 3795 ringgit/ton, with a price decrease of 94 and a percentage decrease of - 2.42%. [2] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis**: The current spot prices, percentage changes, and spot basis of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou 24° palm oil, etc. are shown. For example, the current price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8180, with a percentage increase of 0.12% and a spot basis of 394. [2] - **Spot Spread**: The current and previous values of spot spreads between different products are presented, like the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil being - 480 currently and - 550 previously. [2] 3.4 Import and Crushing Profit - The current and previous values of import and crushing profits for products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc. are given. For example, the current import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 769, and the previous value was - 838. [2] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for futures such as soybean oil, palm oil, etc. are provided. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 5,355, and the previous value was also 5,355. [2] 3.6 Industry Information and Comment - **Industry Information**: Malaysian palm oil export volume from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, and a US private exporter reported a sale of 120,000 tons of soybeans to Pakistan. [3] - **Protein Meal Comment**: The night - session soybean meal was weak. Before the substantial adjustment of tariffs, the export situation of US soybeans is still under pressure. The domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the second quarter, which will put pressure on prices. [3] - **Oil Comment**: The night - session soybean and palm oils were weakly volatile, while rapeseed oil was strongly volatile. The domestic short - term supply of soy - based oils is tight, but the supply of imported soybeans in the second quarter is sufficient. The fundamental situation of palm oil is weaker than that of other oils. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm oil**: Pressure has been released in the short - term, and there may be support below [3][5]. - **Soybean oil**: Oscillating to find the bottom, remaining relatively strong among varieties [3][5]. - **Soybean meal**: Weak in the short - term, waiting for the May USDA supply - demand report [3][10]. - **Soybean**: Weakly oscillating [3][10]. - **Corn**: Oscillating with an upward bias [3][13]. - **Sugar**: Stabilizing in the short - term [3][18]. - **Cotton**: Maintaining an oscillating trend [3][22]. - **Eggs**: Oscillating and adjusting [3][28]. - **Hogs**: Near - term contradictions are not obvious [3][30]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [3][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 7,886 yuan/ton (-0.28%), and night - session was 7,940 yuan/ton (0.68%); soybean oil's day - session and night - session closing prices were both 7,780 yuan/ton, with a day - session increase of 0.26% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: USDA reported a 120,000 - ton soybean export to Pakistan in the 2025/26 period; Brazil's 2024/25 soybean commercial sales reached 57% of the expected output, up 6.3 percentage points from last month [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [9]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2507's day - session closing price was 4,153 yuan/ton (-0.16, -0.38%), and night - session was 4,171 yuan/ton (-4, -0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session and night - session closing prices were 2,899 yuan/ton and 2,900 yuan/ton respectively, both down 0.45% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 9, CBOT soybeans rose due to upcoming China - US negotiations and an export sales report; however, ideal sowing conditions in the US soybean belt limited the upward trend, and China's April soybean imports dropped to a ten - year low [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are both - 1 [12]. 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: C2507's day - session closing price was 2,375 yuan/ton (0.30%), and night - session was 2,375 yuan/ton (0.00%); C2509's day - session closing price was 2,385 yuan/ton (0.13%), and night - session was 2,383 yuan/ton (-0.08%) [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port collection prices were 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton (new crop listing), and prices in various regions showed different trends [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 1 [16]. 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: Raw sugar price was 17.82 cents/pound (0.3), mainstream spot price was 6,150 yuan/ton (20), and futures main - contract price was 5,839 yuan/ton (26) [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: High - frequency information showed that factors such as rising crude oil prices and Brazil's slightly accelerated crushing progress affected the sugar market; domestic and international sugar supply - demand situations were also reported [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2509's day - session closing price was 12,950 yuan/ton (0.39%), and night - session was 12,980 yuan/ton (0.23%); CY2507's day - session closing price was 19,220 yuan/ton (-0.21%), and night - session was 19,330 yuan/ton (0.57%) [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Domestic cotton spot trading was light, and the cotton textile enterprise situation was generally stable; ICE cotton was waiting for USDA reports [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2507's closing price was 3,034 yuan/500 kilograms (0.46%), and Egg 2509's was 3,767 yuan/500 kilograms (0.21%) [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. 3.7 Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Henan's spot price was 15,000 yuan/ton (-50), Sichuan's was 14,650 yuan/ton (-100), and Guangdong's was 15,290 yuan/ton (-150) [32]. - **Market Logic**: After the May Day holiday, second - fattening still had rotation intentions, but price differences were inverted; the focus was on inventory accumulation and far - month spread arbitrage strategies [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is 0 [33]. 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Liaoning 308 general - quality peanuts' price was 8,100 yuan/ton (0), Henan Baisha general - quality peanuts' was 8,060 yuan/ton (0) [35]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In various regions, peanut prices were generally stable, with some regions showing slight price increases or decreases due to factors such as supply and demand [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [39].

Overall Summary of the Agricultural Products Sector - Cotton breaks through and rises, but weak downstream demand may limit the rebound space. Soybean meal drops significantly, and the supply is expected to increase. Palm oil continues to be weak with an expected increase in supply. Corn runs at a high level supported by multiple factors [1]. Variety Strategy Tracking Cotton - The main 2509 contract of cotton shows a third consecutive positive trend, breaking through and strengthening technically. Factors such as the upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting on tariffs, domestic macro - favorable policies, low imported cotton volume, and decreased port inventory support the rebound. However, weak downstream demand after the consumption peak season may resist the rebound. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 12875 and resistance at 13000 [1][2]. Soybean Meal - The main 2509 contract of soybean meal first rises then falls sharply, continuing the downward trend. The increasing national oil mill压榨量 strengthens the expectation of loose supply, pressuring the futures price. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2880 and resistance at 2914 [3]. Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract of palm oil first rises then falls, with a continuous decline. The expected increase in production and inventory in Malaysia and the increase in China's procurement volume suppress the price. The technical situation remains weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7812 and resistance at 7944 [5]. Sugar - The main 2509 contract of sugar rebounds, boosted by short - covering. The strong production and sales data in the domestic sugar market provide upward momentum. However, the technical weakness has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions and observe whether it can break through the 5 - day moving average resistance, with support at 5808 and resistance at 5859 [8]. Soybean No.1 - The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 continues to decline. The stable price of inland soybeans, light market trading, increasing imported soybean supply, and weak downstream demand suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell, with support at 4138 and resistance at 4188 [9][11]. Soybean Oil - The main 2509 contract of soybean oil rises then falls, with a volatile market. The improvement of soybean supply and the increase in oil mill operating rate will lead to an increase in supply and inventory, limiting the upward space. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 7752 and resistance at 7806 [12]. Corn - The main 2507 contract of corn oscillates and closes positively, running at a high level. Factors such as the exhaustion of grassroots surplus grain, strong willingness of traders to hold and support prices, the linkage between wheat and corn prices, and the intention of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory support the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2370 and resistance at 2387 [14]. Live Pigs - The 2509 contract of live pigs first declines then rises, with a volatile trend and a downward trend remaining. High inventory in the breeding end, increased planned slaughter volume in May, and weak demand after the May Day holiday suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell at high prices, with support at 13820 and resistance at 14000 [17]. Eggs - The main 2506 contract of eggs first rises then falls, with a continuous downward trend. High egg - laying hen inventory, slow elimination of old hens, and weak demand after the May Day holiday lead to sufficient supply and slow inventory digestion. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2875 and resistance at 2900 [20]. Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples rebounds slightly but remains weak. The slowdown in post - holiday sales, high - level long - liquidation on the futures market, and technical weakness continue. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss set, with support at 7765 and resistance at 7864 [21][23].

农产品日报 | 2025-05-09 现货供应宽松，豆粕窄幅震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2919元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.03%；菜粕2509合约2563元/吨，较前日 变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.08%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3340元/吨，较前日变动+40元/吨，现货基差M09+421， 较前日变动+41；江苏地区豆粕现货3100元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09+181，较前日变动+11；广东 地区豆粕现货价格3120元/吨，较前日变动跌-80元/吨，现货基差M09+201，较前日变动-79。福建地区菜粕现货价 格2500元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM09-63，较前日变动+12。 近期市场资讯，5月7日巴西全国谷物出口商协会预计，尽管巴西刚刚收获了创纪录的大豆，但巴西5月份的大豆出 口量可能降至1260万吨。Anec目前对5月份的出口预估显示，与今年4月份和去年5月份相比，出口量可能减少90 万吨。巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西4月出口大豆15,271,913.82吨，日均出口量为763,595.69吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the recent trends and influencing factors of various agricultural products. Overall, the prices of some products are under pressure due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand, while others are supported by factors like strong demand and limited supply [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Sugar - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of sugar gapped down and fell sharply, affected by the decline in the external market [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Brazil's new sugar - cane crushing season has a strong start, with sufficient supply and expected production increase, which strengthens the market's expectation of loose supply. The domestic import profit window for out - of - quota sugar is open, and the subsequent arrival pressure may increase. The spot trading is light [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 5800 and resistance at 5849 [2]. (2) Soybean No.1 - **Trend**: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 reversed and fell sharply, entering a downward trend [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: The acceptance of high - priced domestic soybeans in the market is low, and the overall market trading is light. The arrival of imported soybeans eases the shortage of soybeans in oil mills, and the consumption of soy products enters the off - season [3]. - **Strategy**: Close long positions and hold light - position short positions, with support at 4100 and resistance at 4194 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of palm oil first declined and then rose, but the price is still in a downward trend [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The decline of the Malaysian palm oil futures price in the external market is narrowed by short - covering. The export growth rate of Malaysian palm oil is lower than the production growth rate, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. The domestic import profit of palm oil rises, and the subsequent purchases increase, but the demand is still suppressed by the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 7812 and resistance at 7974 [5]. (4) Soybean Oil - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: The overall inventory of the three major domestic oils has increased, and the inventory of soybean oil has increased significantly. With the increase in the arrival of soybeans, the oil mill's operating rate will rise, and the supply of soybean oil will increase [7]. - **Strategy**: Conduct short - term trading, with support at 7712 and resistance at 7782 [7]. (5) Soybean Meal - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal oscillated narrowly, and the downward trend remained unchanged [10]. - **Influencing Factors**: The operating rhythms of soybean oil mills in different regions are different, and the spot prices in the north and south are differentiated. With the increase in soybean supply, the oil mill's operating rate will rise, and the supply of soybean meal will increase. The downstream feed enterprises are cautious, and the trade enterprises have some purchases [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 2895 and resistance at 2930 [10]. (6) Corn - **Trend**: The main 2507 contract of corn declined slightly and fluctuated at a high level [11]. - **Influencing Factors**: The remaining grain in the corn - producing areas is almost sold out, and the trading entities are reluctant to sell. The operating rate of downstream corn starch enterprises has increased, and the demand from feed enterprises has also gradually increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly [13]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position long positions on dips, with support at 2351 and resistance at 2387 [13]. (7) Live Pigs - **Trend**: The 2509 contract of live pigs was restricted in rebound, oscillated and declined, and the downward trend continued [14]. - **Influencing Factors**: The存栏 of the breeding end is at a high level, and the willingness to sell has increased. The planned slaughter volume in May has increased. After the May Day holiday, the demand has decreased, and the support from the demand side is insufficient [14]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions on rallies, with support at 13800 and resistance at 13940 [17]. (8) Eggs - **Trend**: The contracts of eggs showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the main 2506 contract of the near - month oscillated slightly, but the downward trend remained unchanged [18]. - **Influencing Factors**: The存栏 of laying hens is at a high level, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. During the May Day holiday, the spot price continued to fall, the market demand decreased, and the inventory digestion was slow [18]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 2850 and resistance at 2905 [18]. (9) Cotton - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of cotton oscillated and closed up, continuing the rebound trend [20]. - **Influencing Factors**: The meeting between Chinese and US senior officials on tariff issues has boosted market sentiment. The strong rise of cotton yarn futures has driven the rise of cotton. However, the weak downstream demand limits the rebound height [20]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position long positions, with support at 12885 and resistance at 13015 [20]. (10) Apples - **Trend**: The main 2510 contract of apples fell sharply, and the trend turned downward [22]. - **Influencing Factors**: After the festival, the purchase speed of market merchants has slowed down. The apple inventory is still at a five - year low, but the inventory reduction speed has slowed down slightly. The futures price was under pressure from long - position liquidation and broke through the support level [22]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions and set stop - losses, with support at 7722 and resistance at 7828 [22].

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover various industries including oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, meal, livestock, and corn [1][3][4][7][9][12][14] - The date of the reports is May 8, 2025 [1][3][4][7][9][12][14] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil: Potential over - supply due to increased production may push down prices. Domestic palm oil futures may follow the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil [1] - Soybean oil: Sino - US meeting may boost CBOT soybeans, but US biodiesel policy may limit the upside. In China, high basis and increasing supply may lead to a decline in basis quotes [1] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Different price changes are shown for spot and futures prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, along with basis, spreads, and inventory data [1] Group 3: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Supply concerns are alleviated with good starts in Brazil's new sugar - cane season and expected increase in India's sugar production. In China, the overall supply - demand is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to be weak after the holiday [3] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Futures and spot prices of sugar show certain fluctuations, along with basis, spreads, and inventory data [3] - Industry Data: National and regional sugar production, sales, and inventory data show year - on - year changes [3] Group 4: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short term, macro factors dominate the market, and cotton prices may fluctuate. The downstream market is slightly weakening, and inventory is slightly accumulating [4] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Futures and spot prices of cotton show changes, along with basis, spreads, and inventory data [4] - Industry Data: Inventory, import volume, and textile - related data show month - on - month changes [4] Group 5: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Post - holiday replenishment has a limited impact on egg prices due to supply pressure. Egg prices may remain stable in May and decline in June. Short - selling is recommended for 06 and 07 contracts [7] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Futures and spot prices of eggs, along with related spreads and costs, show certain changes [7] Group 6: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US soybeans are following the decline of US soybean oil. Spring sowing is progressing well, and the supply pressure from Brazil is continuing. In China, the supply is recovering, and the basis is under pressure [9] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Spot and futures prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are presented, along with basis, spreads, and inventory data [9] Group 7: Livestock (Pig) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - During the May Day holiday, pig prices were stable. Secondary fattening may lead to more supply in May, and demand is weak. Pig prices are expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract has priced in the weak post - holiday expectation [12] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Futures and spot prices of pigs, along with related indicators such as slaughter volume, profit, and inventory, are shown [12] Group 8: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The corn market has a tight supply, and spot prices are strong. However, new wheat listing and policy releases may put pressure on prices. Corn prices are expected to be high and volatile in the short term and may rise in the long term [14][15] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Futures and spot prices of corn and corn starch are presented, along with basis, spreads, and inventory data [14]