每日晨报 2025年6月 13 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 美国 5 月 PPI 环比上涨 0.1% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:等待美国通胀温和上行,注意企业也承担了部分涨价--5 月美国 CPI 数据。全年来看,关税下的美国价格走势可能有以下几点特征:(1)从短期 的 CPI 和 PCE 价格数据来看,关税造成的涨价尚不明显,但我们认为这更多 是统计抽样和部分抢进口形成的库存所导致的涨价滞后,高频数据显示涨价已 经发生。(2)尽管通胀将在 2025下半年显现,但我们认为考虑关税的情况下 CPI 的年均同比增速将由 2.4%提升至 3.1%左右,高点可能为 3.4%, 2026 年 中开始可能回落至2.5%左右的范围,其"暂时性"并不阻碍美联储在年内考 虑降息。(3)从对企业的调查来看,企业也将负担部分关税成本,这一方面 意味着消费者价格上行压力缓和,另一方面企业利 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued measures to support the construction of a cross-strait integration development demonstration zone in Fujian, focusing on financial support for cross-strait exchanges [2][3] - The measures include allowing banks in Fujian to handle cross-border RMB payments for Taiwanese residents involved in real estate transactions and enhancing payment services for foreign personnel in Fujian [2][3] - The initiative aims to facilitate high-level openness in cross-border trade and capital financing, encouraging Taiwanese enterprises to invest in Fujian and participate in the mainland financial market [3] Group 2 - Ant Group announced plans to apply for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and Singapore, aiming to enhance its global treasury management and blockchain innovations [4] - Tencent is reportedly exploring the acquisition of South Korean gaming giant Nexon, with discussions ongoing with the founder's family regarding potential options [5] - New China Life Insurance plans to invest up to 15 billion yuan in a private equity fund to optimize asset-liability matching and improve capital efficiency [5] Group 3 - Vanke A completed the sale of 72.96 million A-shares, raising approximately 479 million yuan to enhance liquidity [6] - GAC Group launched its first mass-produced flying car, AirCab, with a price not exceeding 1.68 million yuan [6] - 360 Group introduced a new AI-powered search product capable of processing complex tasks and integrating information from multiple platforms [6] Group 4 - Yonghui Supermarket reported that 41 reformed stores have distributed over 26 million yuan in bonuses to employees [7][8] - New City Development issued a 300 million USD bond with a coupon rate of 11.88%, marking a significant step for private real estate companies in resuming USD bond financing [8] Group 5 - Boeing is in contact with Air India regarding a recent aircraft accident, offering support as needed [9] - Micron Technology announced plans to invest approximately 200 billion USD in memory manufacturing and R&D in the U.S., reinforcing its position as a global leader in memory technology [9] Group 6 - Nvidia's CEO highlighted the expected growth of autonomous driving and robotics in the coming years, emphasizing Nvidia's role in providing both hardware and software solutions [10] - Meta AI launched a new generative AI video editing feature, allowing users to change clothing, scenes, and lighting with preset prompts [11] Group 7 - The Chinese government has approved a number of export licenses for rare earth-related items, indicating a commitment to meet global demand while ensuring compliance [21] - The National Development and Reform Commission supports Hong Kong-listed companies in issuing depositary receipts on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [16]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the AI industry, public cloud services, and the renewable energy sector, with a focus on companies like Huoshan Engine, Guoneng Rixin, and Zhongji Xuchuang [2][9][13]. Core Insights and Arguments AI Industry - Huoshan Engine leads the domestic public cloud large model invocation market with a 46.4% market share [2][3]. - Daily invocation of Huoshan Engine's Daobao model increased from 4 trillion tokens in December 2024 to over 16.4 trillion tokens by May 2025, indicating rapid growth [3]. - AI tool token consumption has surged, with programming tools increasing by 8.4 times and general tools by 10 times [2][3]. - Visual understanding models in K12 education have seen a 12-fold increase in token consumption [2][3]. - Daily token consumption for intelligent inspection videos and video retrieval has surpassed 10 billion [4]. Pricing Strategy - Huoshan Engine's Daobao 1.6 pricing strategy varies by input range, significantly reducing costs for enterprises, especially for requests within the 0-32K range, where costs can drop by 63% [5]. Demand for Computing Power - The AI era is driving a shift from BI to multi-modal data processing, increasing demand for computing power [6]. - Domestic computing power is currently in short supply, with potential price increases expected in the second half of the year [21]. - Despite NVIDIA's potential return to the Chinese market, domestic computing power still has significant growth potential [21]. Renewable Energy Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission's green electricity direct supply policy benefits Guoneng Rixin and Langxin, enhancing their competitive edge in renewable energy generation efficiency [9]. - Guoneng Rixin's products and services are expected to help reduce waste in wind and solar energy generation [9]. Optical Module Market - The demand for optical modules is rapidly increasing, with expectations of 15-17 million units of 800G products needed by 2025 and optimistic projections of 25-30 million units by 2026 [13]. - Zhongji Xuchuang is highlighted as a leading player in the optical module market, with significant potential for rebound and sustained growth [13]. International Expansion and Market Dynamics - Companies like Changfei Fiber have improved their performance, with revenue and profit growth returning to levels seen in 2021 and 2022 [15][16]. - The international market is opening new opportunities, with overseas revenue exceeding 30% [16]. - The hollow fiber technology is identified as a key growth driver for Changfei Fiber, with significant investments from major players like Microsoft [17]. Other Important Insights - The AI industry is expected to see a new wave of growth if major models are upgraded in the coming months [6]. - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to benefit from innovations in foldable screens and wearable devices, with significant sales expected [23][24]. - The electronic sector is currently facing challenges but may see valuation recovery opportunities, particularly in the consumer electronics segment [19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the trends, opportunities, and challenges within the AI and renewable energy sectors, as well as the performance of specific companies.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong performance in the IP economy sector, with a notable increase in the number of stocks reaching their upper price limits, indicating a resurgence of investor interest [1] - A total of 65 stocks hit the daily limit, with 18 stocks classified as consecutive limit-up stocks, resulting in a promotion rate of 50% for these stocks [1] - The article notes that Yiming Pharmaceutical achieved a remarkable 7 consecutive limit-ups, while other stocks like Anglikang and Jinying Co. experienced a halt in their upward momentum, reflecting a lack of enthusiasm among investors for high-priced stocks [1] Group 2 - The IP economy concept has regained strength, with stocks like Yuanlong Yatu and Guangdong Media showing significant performance, achieving multiple consecutive limit-ups [1] - Specific stocks such as New Beiyang and Hars have also seen promotions, indicating a broader trend within the IP economy and related sectors [1] - The article mentions that the demand for products from Pop Mart has significantly outpaced supply chain responses, suggesting potential growth opportunities in the market [1]

Core Insights - International long-term capital interest in Chinese assets is rising despite U.S. tariff policies, with significant demand for Hong Kong IPOs, particularly in consumer and technology sectors [1][4][6] Group 1: International Capital and IPO Market - Goldman Sachs has been a leader in overseas stock capital market financing for Chinese issuers since 2025, holding a market share of 21.7% [1] - The Hong Kong IPO market has shown remarkable performance, with 2024 financing reaching $11.3 billion, a 92% increase from $5.9 billion in 2023, and an expected $13 billion in the first half of 2025 [3][6] - The participation of international long-term investors in IPOs has significantly increased, with some projects seeing over 20 international funds involved, compared to 3-5 in previous years [6] Group 2: Market Recovery and Economic Factors - The Hong Kong market has experienced a three-phase performance in 2024, including a strong recovery in Q1 with a 17% rise in the Hang Seng Index, followed by a brief downturn in April, and a rebound in May and June, leading to a cumulative increase of 22% for the year [3][4] - The average return for IPOs in Hong Kong in 2025 is projected to be 37%, with 70% of projects achieving positive returns, compared to only 40% in 2024 [8] - The recovery of the market is attributed to favorable Chinese economic policies, technological advancements, and a high willingness of companies to list in Hong Kong, with 44 A-share companies already announced for listing [7][8] Group 3: Global Capital Rebalancing - The return of international capital to Hong Kong is part of a broader trend of global asset rebalancing, with investors diversifying away from the U.S. due to perceived overvaluation of the dollar [7] - The daily trading volume in the Hong Kong market has increased from approximately HKD 100 billion in 2024 to between HKD 200 billion and 300 billion in 2025, with 70% of this volume attributed to international funds [6][7] - Despite short-term fluctuations due to trade tensions, the successful issuance of large projects post-tariff adjustments indicates strong long-term confidence in the Chinese market [8]

Economic Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, while the year-on-year increase was 2.4%, matching expectations [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May was also released, indicating trends in inflation [4] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.5%, S&P 500 down 0.27%, and Dow Jones slightly down [4] - Notable declines were seen in large tech stocks, with Intel dropping over 6% and Amazon down over 2% [4] - Chinese stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.08% [4] Commodity Prices - International gold prices rebounded, with spot gold rising 0.97% to $3355.01 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures up 0.98% to $3376.00 per ounce [4] - Crude oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil rising 5.11% to $68.30 per barrel and Brent crude up 4.58% to $69.93 per barrel [4] Automotive Industry - In the first five months of the year, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% of total sales [10] - The automotive industry is showing a positive trend, with production and sales both exceeding 10% year-on-year growth [10] Corporate Developments - Oracle reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue of $15.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11% [21] - The company anticipates a more than 70% increase in cloud infrastructure revenue for the fiscal year 2026 [21] International Relations - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, where both sides reached a consensus on key economic issues [6] - China announced a zero-tariff policy on 100% of products for 53 African countries, aimed at enhancing trade relations [7]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the recent surge in the A-share market, particularly in the sports sector, with specific mention of stocks like Gongchuang Turf and Jinling Sports experiencing significant price increases [1][5][6] - Gongchuang Turf (605099) achieved its seventh consecutive limit-up, while Jinling Sports (300651) opened high but faced volatility, reflecting the overall market sentiment [1][4] - Other football-related stocks, such as Yue Media and Shuhua Sports, also saw substantial gains, indicating a broader trend in the sports sector [1][4] Group 2 - The sports sector, especially related to the Suzhou Super League, has become a hot topic, gaining popularity after recent events in the national football scene [5][6] - The A-share market has seen a strong performance in football concept stocks, driven by both institutional and retail investors, leading to a shared enthusiasm for trading [6][7] - Notable trading activities were recorded, with significant purchases from various securities firms, indicating strong interest from top investors in stocks like Gongchuang Turf and Jinling Sports [6][7]

Group 1: Market Overview - FTSE Russell announced the final revisions of its Global Equity Index Series (GEIS) quarterly review, with changes effective after market close on June 20 [1] - In Asia/emerging markets, China (+$1 billion), India, and Saudi Arabia (each +$100 million) are expected to see the highest passive fund inflows, while Japan (-$900 million) and Brazil, Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico (each -$170 million to -$240 million) are projected to experience the largest outflows [1] - The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is expected to have a 12-month USD price/total return of 8%/11%, with a target level of 675 points [2] Group 2: Sector Ratings and Adjustments - Korea's rating was upgraded to "Overweight" due to domestic positive factors outweighing global cyclical risks, with a 12-month USD price/total return expectation of 13%/16% (KOSPI target of 3100 points) [1] - Taiwan's stock market rating was adjusted to "Neutral" after significantly underperforming the market year-to-date, with a 12-month USD price return expectation of 10% (TSEC target of 23,500 points) [1] - ASEAN region adjustments include downgrading Singapore to "Neutral" due to strong year-to-date performance and Indonesia to "Underweight" due to ongoing earnings downgrades [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - In the Chinese machinery industry, truck demand is accelerating while engineering machinery demand is slowing, influenced by replacement policies and seasonal factors [4] - Southeast Asia and Africa show strong demand for trucks and engineering equipment, while demand in CIS countries is weak [5] - The domestic factory automation (FA) demand is slightly weakening due to trade uncertainties, while process automation (PA) is improving due to equipment upgrade needs [6] Group 4: Company-Specific Updates - Kuaishou's Kling AI reported an annual recurring revenue (ARR) run rate exceeding $100 million as of March 2025, with monthly subscription bookings surpassing 140 million RMB ($14 million) in April and May [7] - Yili's management expects retail demand to remain weak, but anticipates a 5% growth in liquid milk sales in 2025, supported by healthier channel inventory levels [8] - Tingyi maintains its profit growth target despite revenue challenges, benefiting from cost advantages and flexible investments [9]

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the transformation of the Xuhui District in Shanghai into a vibrant hub for talent, investment, and entrepreneurship, driven by a series of urban renewal initiatives [1][3] - The "One Port, One Valley, One City, One Heart" strategy is being implemented, creating a world-class waterfront that attracts over a million square meters of financial capital and innovation [1] - The West Bank Financial City is positioned as a reservoir for capital, while the Digital Valley and Media Port serve as platforms for talent value transformation, fostering new forces in hard technology and culture [1][3] Group 2 - The West Bank area is characterized by a multidimensional connection of consumption, technology, art, media, and lifestyle, making it a fertile ground for entrepreneurship and a paradise for young people [3] - A virtuous cycle is being established in the West Bank, where talent drives innovation, capital empowers industries, and entrepreneurship activates the ecosystem [3] - A thematic dialogue event titled "2025 Vitality West Bank: From Urban Renewal to Living Model" is scheduled for June 10, 2025, focusing on topics such as commercial secrets and the parallel development of cultural industries and urban renewal [3] Group 3 - The dual strategy of "ART (Art) and AI (Artificial Intelligence)" is expected to bring iterative upgrades to the industrial ecosystem of the West Bank, with discussions on high-quality urban development in the Yangtze River Delta region [3] - The event will feature roundtable discussions among corporate management on the path to elevating urban capabilities and achieving high-quality development [3]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report suggests that the upcoming months of June and July will be critical for trade negotiations and economic observations, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China and EU trade talks, with a significant meeting scheduled on June 9 [5] - The U.S. economy shows resilience with no signs of recession as of May, and the market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been slightly adjusted, indicating a cautious outlook for the next two months [6] Group 2: Market Performance - The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13% over the past week, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [6] - A total of 20 industries are currently in a weekly uptrend, suggesting a broad-based market recovery, with opportunities for investors to position themselves favorably [6] Group 3: Banking Sector - Several banks have announced dividend distributions, with 11 banks having completed their annual dividend distributions by early June, indicating a proactive approach to shareholder returns [21] - The average dividend yield for listed banks is reported at 4.14%, with state-owned banks yielding between 4.3% and 5%, reflecting stable profit growth and a favorable long-term investment outlook [22] Group 4: Coal Industry - The coal price has seen a significant decline from a peak of 1615 RMB/ton in October 2021 to approximately 618 RMB/ton as of June 5, 2025, marking a cumulative drop of 997 RMB/ton [28] - Historical analysis indicates that coal prices typically recover following government intervention or demand-side stimulus, suggesting that policy support will be crucial for future price stabilization [27][28] Group 5: Real Estate Sector - China Resources Vientiane Life is positioned as a leader in commercial operations, with plans to open 6 new shopping centers annually from 2025 to 2028, contributing to revenue growth [31] - The company has demonstrated resilience with a projected retail sales growth of 4.6% in 2024, outperforming the overall retail sector [31] Group 6: Pharmaceutical Sector - The report highlights the transformation of China's innovative drug sector from an importer to an exporter, with a significant increase in the commercialization of innovative drugs [10][11] - The domestic innovative drug market is expected to grow, with the proportion of innovative drugs in medical insurance expenditures rising to 3.19% in 2023, indicating a robust growth trajectory [10] Group 7: Technology Sector - Guokewai plans to acquire a 94.366% stake in Zhongxin Ningbo, which is expected to enhance its capabilities in high-end filters and MEMS, thereby expanding its market reach in smart devices and connected vehicles [42]