盘面整体情绪有所缓和，现货贴水走阔 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国非农就业人数大超预期，7月降息概率迅速下滑；国内以旧换新政策将继续，反内卷和供给侧改革声音出现，对盘面影响较大；美国对 外关税政策出台，比例较前期提升，但后续不确定性仍较大。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 2.1.1 氧化铝产能：6月在产产能同比增加9.14%，环比增加365万吨 据阿拉丁数据,2025年6月中国氧化铝总产能为11292万吨，同比增加8.56%，环比增加50万吨； 2025年6月中国氧化铝在产 产能为9315万吨，同比增加9.14%，环比增加365万吨。 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 9,000.00 10,000.00 11,000.00 12,000.00 2018-04 2018-09 2019-02 2019-07 2019 ...

1. Copper Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Macroeconomically, the expected US tariff increase on copper is 50% to be implemented at the end of July. The 232 investigation weakens the logic of LME copper squeezing and US restocking. Fundamentally, there are still contradictions in copper mine supply, and demand has weakened at high copper prices. Global visible inventory, LME inventory, and Chinese social inventory are low, except for COMEX due to US restocking. After the 232 investigation, non - US electrolytic copper shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand". The negotiation of reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should pay attention to the support level of 78,000 [1]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,615 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 15 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. have decreased to varying degrees [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.56 dollars/ton week - on - week. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and regenerated copper rod changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [1]. 2. Aluminum Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum price broke through the recent resistance level and reached a new high due to low warehouse receipts and inventory and short - term tightening of spot supply. Fundamentally, the alumina market will remain slightly oversupplied in July - August. The current aluminum price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectation, weak demand, and macro - disturbances, it is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 20,800 [3]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,820 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also increased slightly. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed accordingly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month. The operating rates of different aluminum products and inventories in different regions also changed [3]. 3. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected to be in a weak shock, and the main contract is expected to operate between 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [4]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. Inter - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 decreased [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.9 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.10 million tons, up 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of different types of enterprises and inventories also changed [4]. 4. Zinc Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The zinc ore supply is in a long - term loose trend. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, but the improvement lags behind the ore end. The demand has weakened marginally. The low inventory provides price support, but the domestic social inventory may enter the inventory accumulation cycle. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loose cycle. The main contract is expected to operate between 21,500 - 23,000. Attention should be paid to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies [8]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 1.08% from the previous day. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month. The operating rates of different zinc processing industries changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [8]. 5. Nickel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The nickel price rebounded, and the macro - sentiment eased. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose. The refined nickel cost support has loosened, and the medium - term supply is still loose, restricting the upward space of the price. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [10]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,600 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous day. The prices and costs of different nickel products and related indicators such as LME 0 - 3, import profit and loss, etc. changed [10]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [10]. 6. Tin Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The actual tin ore supply remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and in the electronic consumption off - season. In the short term, there are large macro - disturbances. Hold the previous high - level short positions and pay attention to changes in US tariff policies [14]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 265,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 160.00% [14]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. changed significantly [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% month - on - month, while SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month - on - month. Import and export volumes of refined tin and other data also changed [14]. 7. Stainless Steel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The stainless steel market is strong, but the spot trading is light. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose, and the nickel - iron price is weak. The steel mill's production reduction is less than expected, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel mill production reduction schedules [15]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The inter - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [15]. 8. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated narrowly. The macro - situation has uncertainties. The supply of lithium carbonate is relatively sufficient, and the demand is stable but difficult to boost significantly. The inventory is still at a high level. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 60,000 - 65,000. Attention should be paid to macro - risks [17]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 63,650 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day. The prices and spreads of different lithium products changed [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2507 - 2509, etc. decreased [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The demand, import, and export volumes, and inventories in different links also changed [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively sufficient supply and stable demand, with the cost side supporting the spot price. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of relatively stable supply, seasonal decline in demand, and increased inventory. Due to the support of the macro - environment, the industry outlook remains positive. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The long - term industry outlook and the firm cost side may provide some support for the cast aluminum price. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,515 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract position is 250,099 lots, down 19,098 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is 16,703 lots, up 2,441 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.96, down 0.05 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the main contract position is 248,656 lots; the LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts are 8,225 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 19,830 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract position is 8,571 lots, down 114 lots [2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,660 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the alumina basis is - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The alumina production is 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the alumina import volume is 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons; the alumina export volume is 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 15,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 159,700.92 tons, down 30,651.64 tons; the export volume is 72.44 tons, up 35.90 tons [2]. Industry Situation - **Aluminum Production and Trade**: The primary aluminum import volume is 223,095.59 tons, down 27,381.21 tons; the export volume is 32,094.07 tons, up 18,421.29 tons; the aluminum product production is 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons [2]. - **Capacity and Utilization**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization rate is 97.68%, up 0.03% [2]. Downstream and Application - **Automobile and Real Estate**: The automobile production is 264.20 million vehicles, up 3.80 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 8.08%, down 1.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.10%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.28%, down 0.0041; the call - put ratio is 1.15, up 0.0349 [2]. Industry News - In June, the production and retail of passenger cars reached 2.419 million and 2.084 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 18.1%. Among them, the production and retail of new energy vehicles reached 1.2 million and 1.111 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 28.3% and 29.7% [2]. - From January to June, the production and retail of passenger cars reached 13.246 million and 10.901 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.5% and 10.8%. Among them, the production and retail of new energy vehicles reached 6.457 million and 5.468 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 38.7% and 33.3% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The short - term trading core drivers are the US copper tariff rate and its implementation time. If the 50% tariff rate is implemented at the end of July, the CL spread will be repaired by "COMEX copper price rising + LME copper price falling". If the implementation is delayed, LME copper price will be supported by arbitrage trading. The reference range for the main contract is 76,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2,850 - 3,150. It is recommended to short on rallies. For electrolytic aluminum, the current high - level price is expected to face pressure in the short - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the 20,800 resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [4]. Zinc - In the short - term, zinc price is weakening. Pay attention to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle [8]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to macro - policy guidance and short - term disturbances from the news [11]. Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large. Pay attention to changes in US tariffs, and continue to hold previous high - level short positions [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the rhythm of steel mill production cuts [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 60,000 - 65,000. Observe the performance of funds around 65,000 and pay attention to macro risks [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 79,795 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11% [1]. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.30% [1]. - In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.23% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - In June, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.22% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.49% [4]. - In June, the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.30% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 22,040 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 6.50% [8]. - In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 5.36% [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 121,100 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.74% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 10.04% [11]. - The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 10,325 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 116.90% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2,600 yuan/ton to 264,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97% [14]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 3,288 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 36.39% [14]. - SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.37% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.83% [16]. - The stainless - steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 12.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 350 yuan/ton to 62,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 6,010 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 8.34% [18]. - In June, the lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 145 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.15% [20].

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved the registration of futures and options for casting aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, aiming for a smooth launch and robust operation [1] - Casting aluminum alloy, primarily produced from recycled aluminum, is a key product for the low-carbon transition in the global aluminum industry and is widely used in various sectors including automotive, machinery, and electronics [1] - China is the largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloy globally, with an estimated production capacity of 13 million tons and a production volume of 6.2 million tons in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The listing of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to provide effective risk management tools and transparent price signals for industry participants, promoting the standardized development of the market [1] - Companies like Guangdong Hongjin New Materials Group express a strong interest in utilizing the new futures for hedging against price volatility, as the current lack of recycled aluminum futures limits their options [2] - The introduction of these futures is anticipated to enhance the pricing mechanism in the current spot market, which lacks a unified and effective pricing system, thereby improving price transparency and fairness [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors, with geopolitical risks, trade policies, and economic data all playing significant roles. Different commodities show various trends due to their unique supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic environments [2][3]. - For most commodities, short - term price movements are characterized by oscillations, affected by both positive and negative factors. Some commodities may experience short - term price increases or decreases based on specific events and data [4][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Overseas: The US Senate passed the "Big Beautiful Act" with a narrow margin, and it awaits final approval in the House. Trump may reach a trade agreement with India but is skeptical about Japan, hinting at a potential increase in tariffs on Japanese imports to 30% - 35% from 24%. The US job openings in May reached a new high since November last year, and Powell suggested a "wait - and - see" approach [2]. - Domestic: President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, emphasizing the promotion of a unified market and the development of the marine economy. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June rebounded to 50.4, returning to the expansion range. Stocks and bonds both rose, but the A - share market lacked a clear main line [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.28% to $3349.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.20% to $36.25 per ounce. Trade concerns, potential Fed rate cuts, and Middle - East geopolitical risks drove safe - haven funds into the precious metals market. However, the short - term sustainability of the price rebound is uncertain [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper showed an upward trend. The Shanghai copper main contract broke through, and the London copper price approached the $10,000 mark. The US manufacturing was in a downturn with inflation expectations rising. Globally, the shortage of concentrates and low inventory levels, along with expanding application areas, are expected to drive copper prices into a short - term oscillatory upward trend [6][7]. Aluminum - The price of aluminum showed a positive trend. The weakening US dollar index and low warehouse receipts supported the price. However, the market should also pay attention to the impact of the Senate's passage of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill and the upcoming July 9 trade tariff suspension deadline [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina futures showed a preference for oscillatory movement. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to decline, and the spot market had limited supply increments. The short - term price is expected to maintain a preference for oscillatory movement [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc declined slightly. Overseas refineries resumed production, and the supply disturbance weakened. Although downstream buying improved, the short - term fundamentals remained weak, and the price returned to a weakening trend [12][13]. Lead - The price of lead declined slightly. The supply of primary and recycled lead refineries is expected to recover in July, while consumption has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly [14][15]. Tin - The price of tin showed a compensatory movement. The fundamentals were not significantly changed, with low trading volume. The supply and demand were both weak, and the high - price tin faced pressure [16]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon faced resistance in its rebound. It was in the off - season with weakening demand. The supply side was generally weak, and the demand side in the photovoltaic industry was also lackluster. The short - term price is expected to enter a weak adjustment phase [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate declined. The market sentiment cooled down, and the downstream replenishment ended. Although the cathode production in July may exceed expectations, the supply also increased, and high inventory may drag down the price [19][20]. Nickel - The price of nickel oscillated. The US economic data was mixed, and the cost side showed signs of loosening. The short - term fundamentals had no improvement, and the price oscillated [21][22]. Crude Oil - The price of crude oil oscillated. Geopolitical risks and industry logic were intertwined. Although the geopolitical heat decreased, the conflict was not completely over, and the supply side maintained a high - growth expectation [23]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures price rebounded slightly. The market was affected by the news of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply side's production was stable at a low level, and the demand side was weak due to high - temperature weather. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [24][25]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price oscillated and adjusted. The port inventory decreased slightly, but the supply pressure remained due to high overseas shipments. The demand for iron ore had some resilience, but the production of molten iron was expected to decline. The short - term price is expected to oscillate under pressure [26]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. The US soybean crushing volume in May was 6.11 million tons, and the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas in the next two weeks was normal. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather changes, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - US trade progress [27][28]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price may oscillate. The production of Malaysian palm oil in June slowed down, and the export demand in Indonesia increased in May. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and the CL spread. The shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse before the "232" investigation ends, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains slightly oversupplied in the short term, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices may rebound, but the zinc fundamentals have not improved fundamentally. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy is recommended [8]. Nickel - The nickel market has improved macro - sentiment, but the cost support of refined nickel has loosened. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals remain weak. In the short term, the market is expected to operate weakly [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was 70 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina output was 7.2721 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.729 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot output was 606,000 tons, down 0.66% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 261,000 tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc output was 549,400 tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; the refined zinc import volume was 28,200 tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,600 yuan/ton, down 7.14% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output in May was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 8,832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12,650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The futures - spot spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 16.00% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (43 enterprises) in April was 1.7912 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless - steel import volume was 125,100 tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 61,300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 59,700 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 93,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" results in no clear and smooth trend for copper prices. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside potential. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. The "rush - to - export" demand is an over - draft of future demand, and the actual demand side may face pressure in Q3. The main reference range is 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the current low - inventory pattern and the expectation of an increase in the proportion of molten aluminum support the aluminum price to run strongly, but the pressure of the consumption off - season limits its upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market for recycled aluminum alloy presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. The price of SMM ADC12 runs weakly in a narrow range. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, the center of zinc prices may move down. The medium - to - long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply - side recovery progress is slow. Under the strong reality, short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm. The approach is to short on rallies around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [9]. Nickel - The overseas nickel market has high inventory, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend. The inventory still exerts pressure on the fundamentals. In the short term, the disk is expected to adjust weakly in a range, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel continue to be weak, with certain support at the ore end, a downward negotiation range for nickel - iron, high stainless - steel production, and overall weak demand and slow inventory reduction. In the short term, there is still pressure under the supply - demand contradiction. The disk is expected to run weakly, with the main operation range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk is expected to run weakly in a range. The approach is still to short on rallies, but attention should be paid to the weakening of the short - selling return ratio and the susceptibility to news interference in the short term. The main reference range is 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 78,415 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.11%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. Other copper prices and premiums also showed corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of electrolytic copper was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The import volume increased by 1.23% to 253,100 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.39% week - on - week to 712,100 tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased to 75.82%, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased to 29.03% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20,540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.53%. The monthly spread of some contracts also decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of alumina was 7.2721 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%. The production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rate of some aluminum processing industries decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66% to 606,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 261,000 tons. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.91%. Some monthly spreads decreased [7]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of refined zinc was 549,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%. The import volume increased by 2.40% to 28,200 tons. The operating rate of some zinc - consuming industries showed different trends [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 263,700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73%. Some monthly spreads increased [9]. Fundamental Data - In May, the import of tin ore increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons. The production of SMM refined tin decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 119,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.42%. The cost of some nickel production methods decreased [11]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - The production of refined nickel in China decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 0.11% to 203,928 tons [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.40%. Some monthly spreads changed [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) increased by 0.36% to 1.7912 million tons. The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 12.00% to 125,100 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 59,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. Some monthly spreads decreased [18]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of lithium carbonate was 72,080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%. The demand increased by 4.83% to 93,960 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., covering market trends, supply - demand relationships, and trading strategies. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as inventory levels, production capacity changes, and macro - economic indicators on metal prices, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for different metals [7][15][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.4%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 10,391 lots to 535,600 lots. Spot premiums declined due to end - of - quarter inventory clearance and capital needs [2]. - **Important Information**: First Quantum Minerals halted operations at the accident area of the Zambian Trident project. Sentinel Copper's 2025 copper production guidance is 20 - 230,000 tons. Jiangxi Shangxin's 80,000 - ton copper product project is under environmental assessment. A new study shows that Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project could produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode annually in the first 15 years [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Antofagasta insists on a long - term processing fee of - 15 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased, and the ratio may decline further. Domestic smelters increased refined copper exports, and the spot premium dropped due to end - of - half - year factors. Copper price upside is limited [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, focus on LME delivery risks. For arbitrage, continue to hold the borrow strategy. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract fell 4 yuan to 2,903 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [11]. - **Important Information**: India's latest alumina deal was 30,000 tons at 366 dollars/ton. Expected end - of - month production capacity may change due to short - term maintenance. Yunnan Aluminum will strengthen bauxite resource acquisition [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the expected production capacity increase may be affected by short - term maintenance, the short - term surplus of bauxite remains. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate between full cost and cash cost of high - cost production capacity [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 105 yuan/ton to 20,315 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [19]. - **Important Information**: Israel and Iran agreed to a cease - fire. US and Eurozone PMI data were released. China's May photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly. The Tongliao green - power aluminum project entered the core equipment installation stage [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: High aluminum prices led to inventory increases. Low inventory and Middle - East situation uncertainties will affect aluminum prices. After the seasonal off - season in August, low - inventory - driven price differentials may expand [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For arbitrage, consider a 9 - 12 positive spread later. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 19,625 yuan/ton. Spot prices remained stable [27]. - **Important Information**: May automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicle production and sales grew significantly. Guizhou Guangyu plans a 200,000 - ton recycled aluminum project [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic recycled casting aluminum alloy production slightly decreased, and the market lacks continuous driving forces. Prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices. For arbitrage, consider trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [30][31]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.85% to 21,920 yuan/ton. Spot premiums remained stable, but downstream purchasing willingness was low [34]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: Under macro - influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Domestic zinc consumption is in the off - season, and supply has increased significantly in June. Zinc prices may decline with inventory accumulation [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting in the far - month contracts at high prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.44% to 16,960 yuan/ton. Spot prices and downstream battery production enterprises' procurement were stable [38]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory decreased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic primary lead smelter operating rates are high, but lead concentrate imports decreased. Recycled lead smelters are in losses. Supply may tighten, and demand is in the off - season. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 fell 420 to 117,630 yuan/ton. Spot premiums of different nickel types changed [45]. - **Important Information**: The wet - process phase III ONC project's tailings pond in Indonesia was completed. LME revised lending rules. Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [46][47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and weakening demand in June led to a supply - demand imbalance. LME inventory increased, and nickel prices are expected to decline and test the bottom again [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, consider selling call options [49][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract fell 35 to 12,440 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [54]. - **Important Information**: World stainless steel crude steel production in Q1 2025 increased year - on - year. Qing Shan added a public warehouse in Foshan, and its July high - carbon ferrochrome long - term procurement price was flat [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: US tariffs on steel appliances will affect demand. Supply reduction by Chinese and Indonesian steel mills is insufficient, and inventory is difficult to reduce. Nickel ore prices are firm, but NPI prices are falling [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to continue to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract rose 780 to 263,800 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, but trading was light [60]. - **Important Information**: Global PMI data were released, and Congo - Kinshasa and Rwanda will sign a peace agreement [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shanghai Tin continued to fluctuate within a range. Tin ore supply is currently tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has eased. Demand is in the off - season [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, pay attention to the tin ore resumption rhythm. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [64][65]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 7,485 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. Spot prices were stable [66][67]. - **Important Information**: May's social electricity consumption data were released [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although demand increased in June, production also increased. The supply - demand surplus situation remains. Futures prices rebounded due to market sentiment and downstream procurement. Prices may decline as production increases [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting later. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, participate in Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads [71]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 31,085 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices declined [73]. - **Important Information**: China's new photovoltaic and wind power installed capacities from January to May 2025 increased significantly [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: In June, polysilicon production increased, and inventory decreased. Silicon wafer prices fell, and spot prices are under pressure. The futures market logic has changed, and prices are expected to decline [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [78]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,800 to 60,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices of different types of lithium carbonate declined [79]. - **Important Information**: IEA predicted global lithium production. Relevant departments promoted new - energy vehicle safety management and consumption. A lithium - boron mining project in Tibet was approved [80][81]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors and warrant cancellations led to a price rebound. New - energy vehicle sales may be stimulated, but the growth rate may slow down. Lithium salt plants may resume production in July, and inventory is expected to increase [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting on rebounds. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation where supply is relatively stable and demand is converging during the off - season. The option market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of both supply and demand weakness, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,315 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,903 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum and alumina decreased by 3,512 and 4,645 hands respectively [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,592 US dollars/ton, up 30.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 340,975 tons, down 1,875 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.84, down 0.11 [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 19,625 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the main contract position decreased by 180 hands [2]. Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,540 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 375 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 225 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons, down 30.02 million tons [2]. - The import of alumina was 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons; the export was 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 42.70 million tons, up 1.40 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,520.20 million tons, up 2.00 million tons [2]. - The production of aluminum materials was 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons; the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum materials was 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots was 61.60 million tons, up 3.37 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 164.50 million tons, up 11.70 million tons [2]. - The automobile production was 264.20 million vehicles, up 3.80 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 10.35%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.57%, down 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 9.25%, down 0.0175%; the put - call ratio was 0.91, up 0.0249 [2].