天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许字|2011|1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 17 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章未尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华从业证号：F03088692 交易咨询证号：Z0016646 油脂、白糖反抽，苹果强势 一、农产品板块综述 油脂集体飘红，受到国际原油价格反弹的提振，马来西亚 4 月上 半月棕榈油出口环比增长给棕油期价提供支撑。但是由于增产季来临， 棕榈油回升空间预计有限。白糖反抽上扬，国内白糖销糖率较快，需 求较佳，库存拐点即将来临，加之进口白糖和替代品下降，支撑白糖 反弹回升。苹果强势上涨，五一备货火热，产区交易顺畅，苹果库存 偏低，支撑苹果价格走高。豆粕偏弱震荡，进口大豆到港增加, 油厂 开机率将回升，豆粕供应亦将增长，后市豆粕预计偏弱运行。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕榈油： 反抽上扬 焦点关注：棕榈油主力 2509 合约反抽上扬，受原油反弹提振： 1.国际油价反弹,油脂集体飘红。棕榈油反抽。高频数据显示 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 粕类日报 2025 年 4 月 16 日 【粕类日报】市场压力继续体现 盘面大幅回落 研究员：陈界正 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/4/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3039 | -30 | 天津 | 700 | 730 | -30 | | 0 5 | | 2839 | -71 | 东莞 | 250 | 250 | 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 3013 | -53 | | 300 | 350 | -50 | | | | | | 日照 | 330 | 430 | -100 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2425 | -27 | 南通 | 1 4 ...

每日早盘观察 2025 年 4 月 16 日 公众号二维码 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数上涨 0.19%至 1038.25 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数上涨 0.3%至 301.4 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.NOPA：美国 2025 年 3 月大豆压榨量为 1.94551 亿蒲式耳，市场预期为 1.97602 亿蒲式耳，2025 年 2 月为 1.7787 亿蒲式耳； 2.油世界：在周六阿根廷政府计划减少一部分规律管制后，阿根廷比索兑美元汇率 下降 10%。阿根廷比索汇率后续允许在 1000-1400 比索/美元区间运行； 3.油 ...

农产品早报 2025-04-16 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 【重要资讯】 隔夜美豆收跌，因出口需求担忧，此外 NOPA 压榨报告显示美豆油库存下降提供支撑。MYSTEEL 报告 显示上周国内豆油、豆粕大幅去库，同比库存偏低，不过大豆到港回升到 180 万吨/周，港口大豆累库 100 万吨，本周开机恢复后豆粕、豆油将进入累库。昨日豆粕成交较好，开机率恢复至 37.54%，提货较 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 由于对美大豆的高额关税导致我国大豆进口仅依赖巴西，巴西大豆升贴水后期有走强动力，近期下跌空 间也不会太大，而美豆目前低于其种植成本较多，适逢其种植季节种植面积及天气都有交易空间，在宏 观环境没有明显走弱的前提下，我国大豆到港成本具有稳中偏涨的趋势。但若贸易战引发宏观进一步 ...

农产品早报 2025-04-15 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 MYSTEEL 报告显示上周国内豆油、豆粕大幅去库，同比库存偏低，不过大豆到港回升到 180 万吨/周， 港口大豆累库 100 万吨，本周开机恢复后豆粕、豆油将进入累库，周末豆粕现货提价 200 元/吨今日盘面 反应一般，主要是后续有累库预期。今日豆粕成交较好，开机率 31.76%，提货较弱。 杨泽元 由于对美大豆的高额关税导致我国大豆进口仅依赖巴西，巴西大豆升贴水后期有走强动力，近期下跌空 间也不会太大，而美豆目前低于其种植成本较多，适逢其种植季节种植面积及天气都有交易空间，在宏 观环境没有明显走弱的前提下，我国大豆到港成本具有稳中偏涨的趋势。但若贸易战引发宏观进一步走 弱，美豆种植成本、巴 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the粕类 and corn sectors is neutral [1][3] 2) Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the USDA's April supply - demand report didn't significantly adjust South American data. Brazil's soybean harvest is bountiful, and the large quantity of arrivals starting from April will bring supply pressure to China. However, the report raised the US domestic soybean crushing demand, which is positive for US domestic soybean oil consumption, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybean prices. The impact of tariff policies on prices is significant, and future impacts need continuous attention to macro - policies. In China, it's the arrival window for Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian soybean premium remains firm, the overall arrival volume in the next few months is large, and short - term downstream supply isn't tight. Policy changes and domestic soybean arrivals should be closely watched [2] - For the corn market, in China, farmers have mostly sold their remaining grain, and the supply subject has shifted to traders. The sales rhythm of traders is stable. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining, the inventories at North and South ports are high, the procurement of feed enterprises in the sales areas is average, and port de - stocking is slow. The upcoming wheat harvest in North China will limit the upward space of corn prices. The impact of international trade policy changes should be closely monitored, and corn prices are expected to be stable with range - bound fluctuations [5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类 - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3104 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2505 contract was 2721 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 1.15% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3210 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazilian farmers have sold over half of the 2024/25 soybean output, at least 86 million tons. The premium of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated slightly last weekend. On April 14, the CNF premium for imported Brazilian soybeans from May - July was 158 - 182 cents/bu, with a fluctuation of - 5 - 6 cents/bu from the previous day [1] - **Market Analysis** - The USDA report didn't adjust South American data much. Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and the large - scale arrival will bring supply pressure. The report raised US domestic soybean crushing demand, which is positive for US soybean oil consumption, and CBOT soybean prices rebounded. Tariff policies change rapidly and have a great impact on prices. In China, it's the arrival window for Brazilian soybeans. Although the premium is firm, the future arrival volume is large, and short - term supply isn't tight [2] Corn - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2505 contract was 2267 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.13%; the corn starch 2505 contract was 2661 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.08% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: The corn harvest in Argentina accelerated slightly last week, advancing 2.8%. As of April 8, the harvest progress was 23.1%, and the harvested output was 13.6 million tons. The USDA predicted Argentina's 2024/25 corn output to be 50 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and last year. Ukraine raised the minimum export prices of wheat and corn in April [3][4] - **Market Analysis** - In China, farmers have sold most of their remaining grain, and the supply subject has shifted to traders. The sales rhythm of traders is stable. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining, port inventories are high, and port de - stocking is slow. The upcoming wheat harvest in North China will limit the upward space of corn prices. Corn prices are expected to be stable with range - bound fluctuations, and international trade policy changes should be closely monitored [5]

2025年04月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观减弱，震荡反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：关税情绪反复，现实驱动偏少 | 2 | | 豆粕：美元走弱、美豆偏强，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：关税事件，盘面偏强、收复前期跌幅 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：震荡下行 | 7 | | 棉花：需求或继续限制棉价反弹动能 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：逐步回归产业逻辑 | 11 | | 花生：关注反套机会 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 14 日 棕榈油：宏观减弱，震荡反弹 豆油：关税情绪反复，现实驱动偏少 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu028807@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,748 | 涨跌幅 -0.07% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,760 | 涨跌幅 0.14% | | -- ...

市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：巴西大豆收割接近尾声，关注最终产量。加征关税背景下，美豆出口悲观 预期仍存。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：到港大豆逐渐丰裕，市场预期 5-7 月大豆到港超千万吨。终端养殖 需求一般，叠加下游饲料企业高库存高头寸，主要以滚动补库为主。油厂豆粕库存维持中 性。 参考观点：多重因素共振，豆粕短线或区间震荡。 1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8290 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 60 元/吨。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或面临整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3120 元/吨（-20）、天津 3330 元/吨（-10）、 日照 3280 元/吨（-20）、东莞 298 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including price trends, influencing factors, and trading strategies. It suggests that the prices of most agricultural products are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and seasonal patterns, and provides corresponding investment outlooks and strategies [1][2]. Summary by Related Sections Research Views - **Corn**: This week, the May contract of corn reduced its positions and adjusted. Affected by the spot market, the May and July contracts declined in tandem, and the basis returned. The long and short main forces of the May contract continued to shift to the July contract, which became the main contract. The spot market saw an increase in the import cost of corn due to tariff hikes. Although the futures market did not continue to rise recently, the prices in the production areas were relatively firm, and some deep - processing enterprises raised the purchase price of corn. The price of corn in North China remained generally stable, with slight adjustments in individual areas. The arrival volume of corn in Shandong's deep - processing enterprises increased, and the price remained stable. The prices of some deep - processing enterprises in Hebei and Henan increased slightly by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The price of corn in the sales areas was generally stable, with a 20 - yuan/ton decrease in Qinzhou Port. Technically, the 2300 - yuan/ton integer mark of the July contract was a recent intensive trading area. It is expected that the tariff increase, the strengthening of the agricultural product sentiment, and the firm spot price will provide phased support for the futures price, and the July contract will maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans closed higher due to the bullish USDA monthly report. The April supply - demand report showed that the US soybean production and exports in the 24/25 season remained unchanged, but the ending inventory was estimated to be 375 million bushels, lower than the March estimate of 380 million bushels. Globally, the soybean production in Brazil and Argentina remained unchanged, and the global soybean production was adjusted down by 1.8 million tons to 420.58 million tons, while the ending inventory was adjusted up by 60,000 tons to 122.47 million tons. The net weekly export sales of US soybeans increased by 172,300 tons, lower than expected. In the domestic market, the protein meal declined, and most commodities rose. As the impact of tariffs on the market decreased, the increase in the price of US soybeans and the higher import cost supported the market. The trading strategy is to think of the soybean meal as oscillating with a bullish bias [1]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil rose, following the upward trend of the surrounding markets. The MPOB monthly report was bearish, showing that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in March increased to 1.56 million tons due to the increase in production and a significant increase in imports, offsetting the impact of increased demand. In the USDA monthly report, due to the decline in production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, the palm oil production was expected to decrease by 1.3 million tons to 78.2 million tons. Canadian canola closed slightly higher due to the optimistic demand outlook. Tight inventory and continuous demand encouraged farmers' sales levels. The price of about 650 Canadian dollars per ton also encouraged farmers to continue planting rapeseed crops. The April supply - demand report predicted that the global rapeseed production in the 24/25 season would be 85.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.616 million tons, and the ending inventory would be 9.018 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.433 million tons. In the domestic market, the futures price of oils rose, and the market's reaction to the tariff impact was dull. With the overnight reports being mixed and the macro - economic outlook improving, the oils are expected to stop falling. The operation strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the egg futures adjusted under the influence of surrounding commodities. The 2025 contract weakened after opening and rebounded at a low level in the afternoon, finally closing down 0.42% at 3117 yuan/500 kg; the 2509 contract closed down 0.46%. According to the Zhuochuang data, the national egg price yesterday was 3.24 yuan/jin, a 0.03 - yuan/jin increase from the previous day. In the production areas, the price of pink - shell eggs in Tianjin remained flat at 3.15 yuan/jin, and the price of brown - shell eggs in Heishan market increased by 0.1 yuan/jin to 3 yuan/jin. In the sales areas, the price of brown - shell eggs in Puxi and Guangzhou remained flat at 3.45 yuan/jin and 3.48 yuan/jin respectively. The arrival volume in the sales areas increased compared with the previous day, the terminal consumption was normal, and traders purchased according to demand. The egg prices in the sales areas were stable with some increases and individual decreases. Based on the current situation of the egg - laying chicken breeding market, it is relatively certain that the egg supply will increase in the future. On the other hand, seasonal demand is beneficial to egg prices. In the medium and long term, there is a high probability of a weak rebound in egg prices. In the short term, the futures price is greatly affected by the feed end. It is advisable to wait and see for now and look for future operation opportunities after the surrounding commodities stabilize [1][2]. - **Pigs**: This week, the futures price of pigs closed with a small positive line, and the price range steadily increased. The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the United States had a positive impact on the agricultural product sector. The prices of feed raw materials such as corn increased, providing support for pig prices. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the national pig price increased slightly and steadily. In the Henan pig market, the average slaughter price was 14.67 yuan/kg. The mainstream slaughter prices of large - scale farms' 115 - 130 - kg improved pigs were 14.70 - 14.90 yuan/kg; the mainstream slaughter prices of medium - and small - scale farms' 115 - 130 - kg improved pigs were about 14.40 yuan/kg, with a high price of 14.60 yuan/kg; the slaughter price of 150 - 155 - kg large pigs was 14.60 yuan/kg. In the downstream slaughter market, the mainstream purchase price of medium - and small - scale farms' improved standard pigs by slaughter enterprises was about 14.40 yuan/kg, with an average weight of 115 - 125 kg. In the futures market, the short - term pig price is boosted by the increase in raw material prices, while the medium - term supply pressure continues to influence the market. In April, the game between the macro - economic situation and the fundamentals continues, and it is recommended to participate in short - term trading [2]. Market Information - It is expected that the global vegetable oil production in the 2024/25 season will be reduced by 900,000 tons to 228.1 million tons, as the increase in soybean oil production is offset by the decline in palm oil production. The palm oil production is expected to decrease by 1.3 million tons to 78.2 million tons due to the decline in production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand [3]. - The USDA maintained the expected corn production in Argentina in the 2024/2025 season at 50 million tons, and the market expected 49.3 million tons; it maintained the expected corn production in Brazil at 126 million tons, and the market expected 125.91 million tons. It also maintained the expected soybean production in Argentina at 49 million tons, and the market expected 48.79 million tons; it maintained the expected soybean production in Brazil at 169 million tons, and the market expected 169.11 million tons [3]. - The USDA April supply - demand report on US soybeans showed that the expected planting area, harvested area, yield per acre, production, and export volume in the 2024/2025 season remained unchanged compared with March. The total supply increased by 5 million bushels to 4734 million bushels, the crushing volume increased by 10 million bushels to 2420 million bushels, the total consumption increased by 10 million bushels to 4359 million bushels, and the ending inventory decreased by 5 million bushels to 375 million bushels [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of the 9 - 1 spreads of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][7][8][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][17][18][22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term peanut price is relatively weak due to slightly higher production in 2024 than in 2023, weak downstream demand, and ample supply. The 05 peanut has limited upside potential, and the 10 peanut has more uncertainties as it trades on new crops. Currently, the peanut price is around 4.05 yuan per catty, and the peanut oil spot price is stable while peanut meal has been strong recently, with oil mills having theoretical profit in pressing [10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK504 closed at 8200, up 10 (0.12%), with a trading volume of 63 (-70.28%) and an open interest of 573 (-16.35%); PK510 closed at 8170, up 78 (0.95%), with a trading volume of 14,147 (10.85%) and an open interest of 32,940 (1.49%); PK601 closed at 8162, up 76 (0.93%), with a trading volume of 279 (-43.18%) and an open interest of 1,611 (8.34%) [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 8300, 8200, and 8200 respectively, unchanged. The basis for Henan Nanyang was 100, and 0 for Shandong Jining and Linyi. Import prices for Sudanese peanuts were 7800 and Senegalese peanuts were 7500, both unchanged. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3200, and Rizhao soybean meal was 3300. The price of peanut oil was 14500, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 7940, up 100 [3]. - **Spreads**: PK01 - PK04 spread was - 38, up 66; PK04 - PK10 spread was 30, down 68; PK10 - PK01 spread was 8, up 2 [3]. Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. In Northeast China, Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts were 4.1 yuan per catty, and Liaoning Changtu was 4.1 yuan per catty. In Henan, Baisha common peanuts were 4.05 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and Shandong Junan was 3.95 yuan per catty. Imported Sudanese refined peanuts were 8000 yuan per ton. Peanut oil mill purchase prices were stable, with mainstream transaction prices at 7400 - 7700 yuan per ton and the theoretical break - even price at 7850 yuan per ton. Peanut oil prices were stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14500 yuan per ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan per ton. Rizhao soybean meal spot price dropped to 3280 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan per ton, and 48 - protein peanut meal was quoted at 3200 yuan per ton [5][8]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: The upside potential of the 05 peanut is limited [11]. - **Calendar Spread**: Short the 5 - 10 peanut spread on rallies for band trading [12]. - **Options**: Sell the pk510 - p - 7800 option [13]. Fourth Part: Relevant Illustrations - The content provides multiple charts including Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill pressing profits, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, and various peanut contract spreads, with data from 2021 - 2025 [17][19][23].