1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of Treasury bond futures shows that they are in a short - term adjustment, and attention should be paid to the rebound brought by support. This week, after the Treasury bond futures rebounded to a new high, they turned to adjustment. TL2606 and T2606 significantly declined after the rebound and may be in the adjustment process. Currently, they are near the support level, and it is necessary to focus on whether there will be a rebound during the adjustment [2]. - The data tracking of Treasury bond futures indicates that they declined overall this week, and the positive arbitrage strategy is waiting for an opportunity. As of the close on February 27, the closing prices of the 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.456, 106.005, 108.395, and 112.07 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.040, - 0.105, - 0.160, and - 0.94 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading activity of Treasury bond futures increased overall this week, and the daily average trading volume of the 2606 contracts of each maturity increased across the board. The open interest of the 2606 contracts of Treasury bond futures increased overall, and the main contract switched to 2606 this week. The CTD net basis of the 2606 contracts showed differentiation, and the current IRR is generally low, so the positive arbitrage strategy still needs to wait [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Technical Analysis 3.1.1 Previous Trend Review - TL2606 and T2606 closed with small negative lines with upper shadows this week. TL2606 was under pressure and turned down near the weekly MA20, and T2606 closed near the weekly MA5. At the beginning of this week, TL2606 and T2606 reached new highs and then declined, and are currently in a short - term adjustment [9]. 3.1.2 Future Market Outlook - This week, TL2606 and T2606 significantly declined after the rebound and may be in the short - term adjustment process. Currently, they are near the support level, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a rebound during the adjustment. After a significant adjustment on Wednesday and Thursday, T2606 and TL2606 both reached the support level. T2606 pulled back to the intensive trading area, and TL2606 was close to the upward trend line of the rebound since January 8. Attention should be paid to the possible rebound at the support level [14]. 3.2 Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - The Treasury bond futures declined overall this week. As of the close on February 27, the closing prices of the 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.456, 106.005, 108.395, and 112.07 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.040, - 0.105, - 0.160, and - 0.94 yuan compared to the previous week [15]. - The trading activity of Treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The daily average trading volume of the 2606 contracts of each maturity increased across the board, and the trading volume/open interest ratio of each maturity increased [15]. - As of February 27, the open interest of the 2606 contracts of Treasury bond futures increased overall, and the main contract switched to 2606 this week [15]. - As of February 27, the CTD net basis of the 2606 contracts of each maturity showed differentiation, with TS and T rising and TF and TL falling. The CTD net basis of the 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were + 0.03, + 0.02, - 0.01, and + 0.06 yuan respectively. From the perspective of IRR, the IRR corresponding to the CTD of the 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 1.39%, 1.43%, 1.52%, and 1.32% respectively, with TS and T falling and TF and TL rising. The current IRR is generally low, and the positive arbitrage strategy still needs to wait. The spread of the 2606 - 2609 contracts declined across the board, and the 2609 contract performed better [20].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical landscape has faced its most severe shock in decades following the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei during a joint military strike by the US and Israel, leading to significant market volatility and investor uncertainty [2][20]. Market Reactions - The cryptocurrency market initially experienced a sharp decline after the news of the Israeli airstrike on Iran, but quickly rebounded following the confirmation of Khamenei's death, indicating a rapid shift in investor sentiment [3][7]. - Historical patterns suggest that if the market perceives the military action as tactical and limited, initial panic may dissipate quickly, as seen in past events [4][10]. Potential Market Scenarios - Analysts outline three main scenarios for market behavior following the military action, with the core disagreement centered on whether this is a one-time strike or the beginning of a prolonged conflict [12]. Scenario One: Rapid Resolution - If Iranian retaliation remains limited and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains unaffected, the market may interpret the strike as decisive rather than destabilizing, leading to a return to focus on earnings reports and economic policies [14]. Scenario Two: Escalation of Conflict - Should the situation escalate into a prolonged conflict with multiple fronts activated, the market would face a fundamental revaluation, potentially increasing oil prices and inflation expectations [15]. Scenario Three: Systemic Risk Increase - A surge in energy prices could lead to a "stagflation" scenario, where rising inflation coincides with declining growth expectations, creating a challenging environment for equity markets [17][18]. Political Uncertainty - Following Khamenei's death, there is significant uncertainty regarding the future leadership of Iran, with various assessments suggesting that the regime may not undergo a complete overhaul, but rather strengthen its hardline stance [20][21]. - Intelligence evaluations indicate that regardless of who assumes leadership, they are likely to be a hardliner, but their actual influence remains uncertain [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitics is the core of this week's precious metals trading. Gold's recent trend highly depends on the geopolitical situation, and other factors have a relatively dull impact. The gold price may open higher next week. If the geopolitical situation doesn't further intensify, it may show a pattern of opening high and closing low, but the gold price center is expected to rise, and the geopolitical risk premium may be persistent [5]. - The inventory of silver continues to decline this week, and the domestic explicit inventory is only around 760 tons. The inventory - holding ratio has dropped to a minimum of 3.8%, indicating that the domestic silver run - risk has not been completely removed. The silver price may continue to rise in March and may reach $100. Affected by geopolitics and the spill - over effect of funds within the precious metals sector, silver, platinum, and palladium may have short - term upward space [5]. - Although platinum and palladium have shown weak performance 2 months after several geopolitical conflicts since 1970, if gold and silver rise impulsively, platinum and palladium may follow. Platinum is expected to perform better than palladium in the safe - haven narrative. Based on weak high - frequency data, the current outflow of ETFs does not constitute a core signal of trend reversal. It is judged that platinum and palladium will be in a volatile market in the next weekly and monthly dimensions. For the unilateral strategy, closely monitor the performance of platinum in the range of $2400 - $2500 per ounce. After it stabilizes around $2400 per ounce, a light - position long position can be considered [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Geopolitical factors are the core of precious metals trading this week. The gold price rose in the weekend dark - market but then gave back the gains. The subsequent geopolitical situation mainly depends on the new Iranian regime and the status of the Hormuz Strait. The gold price may open higher next week, and its center is expected to rise [5]. - The silver inventory continues to decline, and the inventory - holding ratio is at a low level. The silver price may continue to rise in March, and silver, platinum, and palladium may have short - term upward space [5]. - Platinum and palladium may follow the rise of gold and silver. They are expected to be in a volatile market in the next weekly and monthly dimensions. Pay attention to the performance of platinum in the $2400 - $2500 per ounce range [6]. 场内期权 (Domestic Options) - The implied volatility premium of precious metals domestic call options is relatively high. Bull spread can be considered for long - position layout. Use bull call spread option structure when volatility increases and bull put spread option structure when volatility stabilizes [8]. 场外期权 (Over - the - Counter Options) - For investors planning to continue to layout long positions in gold and silver, considering the high weight and uncertainty of geopolitical factors, it is recommended to buy call options with a short cycle and moderate out - of - the - money degree to control risks and seize opportunities in the rapidly fluctuating market [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report Based on weekly futures technical indicator signals, different trends are predicted for various commodity and financial futures. In commodity futures, the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black and shipping, energy, chemical, and agricultural product sectors show different signals, including bullish, bearish, and sideways trends. In financial futures, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures are bullish, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 index futures are sideways, and 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are also sideways. Overall, investors need to pay attention to position control and stop - profit/stop - loss [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Gold in the precious metals sector is bearish, and silver is sideways; in the non - ferrous metals sector, zinc, nickel, industrial silicon, and aluminum alloy are bullish, polysilicon is bearish, and the rest are sideways [9]. - For the Shanghai copper main contract, it is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of building positions on dips between 100,000 and 103,000 yuan/ton, but need to strictly control positions [12]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and wire rods are bullish, and the rest are sideways; the European container shipping index shows a sideways trend [18]. - The main contract of rebar is expected to be in a sideways repair state next week, with support at 3000 - 3040 yuan/ton [22]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy sector is bullish; in the chemical sector, propylene, glass, and soda ash are bullish, pulp and staple fiber are bearish, and the rest are sideways [30]. - The main contract of PTA is expected to be sideways in the short term, with an oscillation range of 5000 - 5400 yuan/ton [35]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Soybean oil, sugar, logs, soybean meal, rapeseed, rapeseed oil, corn, and eggs are bullish, and the rest are sideways [41]. - The main contract of corn still has upward potential in the short term, but the risk of a pullback is increasing. The resistance range is 2380 - 2420 yuan/ton, and the support range is 2220 - 2250 yuan/ton. Long positions need strict position management [46]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures are bullish, and SSE 50 and SSE 300 index futures are sideways [52]. - The IC CSI 500 index futures are expected to rise slowly next week [54]. - The IF SSE 300 index futures are expected to be slightly bullish and sideways in the short term [59]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are sideways [63]. - The T 10 - year treasury bond futures need to be alert to the short - term pullback risk [67]. - The TS 2 - year treasury bond futures are expected to be sideways in the short term, and investors should be vigilant about the pullback risk [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for government bonds is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to oscillate before the Two Sessions. The real - estate stabilization policies in Shanghai are a limited negative for the bond market. The market's expectation of policy strength during the Two Sessions has slightly increased, but the probability of further large - scale policy stimulus is low, and geopolitical conflicts have led to continuous risk - aversion sentiment [2][11]. - After the Two Sessions, attention should be paid to the supply pressure of government bonds and the trend of the equity market. In the long run, inflation recovery and technological progress are the main trading themes for various assets this year, and the bond market remains a weak asset with adjustment risks [2][12][13]. - In terms of strategies, a unilateral strategy should be cautious about bond market adjustment risks; a short - hedging strategy is recommended; and in the long term, the spread of 3T - TL should be widened [2][14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From February 23 to March 1, government bond futures declined slightly. On Tuesday, the LPR quote remained stable, the stock market rose as expected, and government bond futures outperformed spot bonds. On Wednesday, Shanghai introduced real - estate relaxation policies, the stock market continued to rise, and some bond market institutions took profits, causing government bond futures to decline. On Thursday, with a quiet market and strong profit - taking willingness, government bond futures continued to decline. On Friday, the bond market sentiment improved, and most government bond futures contracts rose. As of February 27, the settlement prices of the 06 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were 102.448, 105.985, 108.390, and 112.120 yuan respectively, down 0.042, 0.120, 0.125, and 0.750 yuan from the previous weekend [1][10]. 1.2 Next Week's View - The bond market is expected to oscillate before the Two Sessions. The real - estate policies in Shanghai are a limited negative for the bond market. The market's expectation of policy strength during the Two Sessions has slightly increased, but the deficit rate is likely to remain at 4%, and the probability of further large - scale policy stimulus is low. Geopolitical conflicts have led to continuous risk - aversion sentiment. After the Two Sessions, attention should be paid to the supply pressure of government bonds and the trend of the equity market. In the long run, the bond market is a weak asset with adjustment risks [2][11][12]. 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 46 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 787.42 billion yuan and a net financing of 368.289 billion yuan, an increase of 787.42 billion yuan and 551.673 billion yuan respectively from last week. 27 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 256.42 billion yuan and a net financing of 190.429 billion yuan, an increase of 256.42 billion yuan and 211.813 billion yuan respectively from last week. 298 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 460.37 billion yuan and a net financing of - 206.29 billion yuan, an increase of 460.37 billion yuan and a decrease of 130.85 billion yuan respectively from last week [18]. 2.2 Secondary Market - Government bond yields rose. As of February 27, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.36%, 1.55%, 1.82%, and 2.29% respectively, up 0.45, 1.04, 2.32, and 4.60 basis points from the previous weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y widened by 2.03, 1.28, and 2.28 basis points respectively [24]. 3. Government Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Government bond futures declined slightly. As of February 27, the settlement prices of the 06 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were 102.448, 105.985, 108.390, and 112.120 yuan respectively, down 0.042, 0.120, 0.125, and 0.750 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures this week were 52,831, 98,584, 173,293, and 128,349 lots respectively, with changes of - 769, - 10,029, + 29,223, and + 17,974 lots from last week. The open interests were 71,309, 186,444, 324,967, and 174,690 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,129, - 9, - 18,953, and - 11,948 lots from last week [31][34]. 3.2 Basis and IRR - The basis of TL widened, while the basis of T, TF, and TS oscillated narrowly. There are no obvious arbitrage opportunities at present. In the short term, risks such as policy stimulus and increased government bond supply should be watched out for. In the long run, the bond market still faces adjustment pressure, and a short - hedging strategy is recommended [38]. 3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of February 27, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2603 - 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were + 0.002, - 0.095, + 0.040, and - 0.250 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.058, + 0.030, + 0.080, and - 0.110 yuan from the previous weekend. This week, long - position holders led the roll - over first, followed by short - position holders [43]. 4. Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 1.641 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 2.2524 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF maturing, the net withdrawal was 911.4 billion yuan. As of February 27, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.36%, 1.34%, 1.36%, and 1.47% respectively, up 7.37, 5.46, 8.70, and 4.40 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.79 trillion yuan, 1.06 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 74.44%, lower than last week [46][48]. 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index declined slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds decreased. As of February 27, the US dollar index fell 0.10% to 97.6443 compared with February 20, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 3.97%, down 11 basis points from February 20. The yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year government bonds was inverted by 215.1 basis points. Due to some dovish statements from Fed officials, the expectation of interest - rate cuts increased, and the US dollar index weakened slightly. Concerns about AI impact led to an adjustment in US technology stocks and a decline in US Treasury bond yields [51]. 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose this week. As of February 27, the Southern China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,694.04, 7,225.54, and 1,603.56 points respectively, up 88.95, 214.49, and 33.59 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices fell. As of February 27, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 17.70, 5.30, and 7.91 yuan per kilogram respectively, down 0.51, 0.28, and 0.15 yuan per kilogram from the previous weekend [54]. 7. Investment Suggestions - The bond market is currently oscillating, but risks of future adjustments should be watched out for [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium to long - term, the report maintains the view that the long - position trend of commodities will continue, but the short - term market may continue the shock and volatility - reduction cycle, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak position among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term. For manganese silicon, its supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but the current price may have already factored in these negative factors. For silicon iron, its supply - demand structure remains basically balanced with some marginal improvements. The key factors influencing the prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron in the future are the direction of the black sector and market sentiment, the cost - push problem caused by manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) of silicon iron due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies. The report also suggests paying close attention to potential restrictions on manganese ore exports and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: After the Spring Festival holiday, the manganese silicon futures price first declined slightly and then rebounded significantly, with a weekly increase of 258 yuan/ton or +4.47%. The silicon iron futures price also followed a similar trend, rising 244 yuan/ton or +4.44% week - on - week [13][15] - **Driving Factors**: The price movements were mainly driven by market rumors about the increase in South African power costs, the imposition of manganese ore ecological export tariffs (the latter was later disproven), and rumors of energy consumption monitoring, energy consumption dual - control, and "anti - involution" policies, which triggered market capital speculation [13][15] - **Technical Analysis and Target Prices**: The manganese silicon futures price has entered a bullish offensive pattern, approaching the resistance level of 6080 yuan/ton. If it breaks through, the next target prices are 6200 yuan/ton and 6450 yuan/ton. The silicon iron futures price is approaching the long - term downward trend line. If it breaks free, the next resistance levels are 5900 yuan/ton and 6100 yuan/ton [13][15] - **Weekly Key Points Summary** - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar was 165.1 million tons, a decrease of 5.28 million tons week - on - week. The daily average pig iron production was 233.28 million tons, an increase of 2.79 million tons week - on - week. In January 2026, the cumulative production of magnesium metal was 8.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.02%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative silicon iron exports were 40.09 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.50% [17] - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5750 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SM605) was 6026 yuan/ton, an increase of 256 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was - 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5850 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SF605) was 5726 yuan/ton, an increase of 234 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 2.12% [17] - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 547 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was - 635 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, it was - 460 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was - 360 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week; in Qinghai, it was - 897 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [17] - **Cost**: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia (excluding depreciation) was 6197 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was 6235 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, it was 6210 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [17] - **Supply**: According to Mysteel data, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.74 million tons, an increase of 0.36 million tons week - on - week. The weekly output of silicon iron was 9.86 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons week - on - week, remaining at a low level compared to the same period [17] - **Inventory**: The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 63.8 million tons, an increase of 1.24 million tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period. The estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 8.81 million tons, a decrease of 3.49 million tons week - on - week (significantly affected by the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of February), remaining at a low level compared to the same period [18] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Manganese Silicon Basis**: As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5750 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SM605) was 6026 yuan/ton, an increase of 256 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was - 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186 yuan/ton week - on - week, at a relatively low level in historical statistics [23] - **Silicon Iron Basis**: As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5850 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SF605) was 5726 yuan/ton, an increase of 234 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 2.12%, at a relatively high level in historical statistics [26] 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Manganese Silicon Production Profit**: As of February 27, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation) remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 547 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was - 635 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, it was - 460 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [31] - **Manganese Silicon Production Cost** - **Raw Material Prices**: As of February 27, 2026, the price of South African manganese ore was 37 yuan/ton - degree, an increase of 0.2 yuan/ton - degree week - on - week; the price of Australian manganese ore was 42 yuan/ton - degree, remaining stable week - on - week; the price of Gabonese manganese ore was 42.8 yuan/ton - degree, remaining stable week - on - week. The market price of off - grade metallurgical coke was 1185 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [32] - **Import Volume**: In December, the import volume of manganese ore was 3.274 billion tons, an increase of 0.58 billion tons month - on - month and an increase of 0.723 billion tons year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative import volume was 32.842 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.56 billion tons or 12.17% [35] - **Port Inventory**: As of February 13, 2026, the port inventory of manganese ore continued to decline, reporting 4.301 billion tons, an increase of 0.098 billion tons week - on - week. Among them, the total port inventory of Australian manganese ore was 0.782 billion tons, an increase of 0.056 billion tons week - on - week; the total port inventory of high - grade manganese ore (including Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ore) was 1.357 billion tons, an increase of 0.05 billion tons week - on - week [38][41] - **Electricity Price and Cost**: As of February 27, 2026, the electricity price in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.0225 yuan/kWh week - on - week, while the electricity prices in other regions remained stable week - on - week. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia (excluding depreciation) was 6197 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was 6235 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, it was 6210 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [44] - **Silicon Iron Production Profit**: As of February 27, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was - 360 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week; in Qinghai, it was - 897 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [47] - **Silicon Iron Production Cost** - **Raw Material Prices**: As of February 27, 2026, the price of silica in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week. The price of semi - coke small materials was 750 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [50] - **Electricity Price and Cost**: As of February 27, 2026, the electricity price in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.0225 yuan/kWh week - on - week, while the electricity prices in other regions remained stable week - on - week. The estimated production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5704 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was 5560 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week; in Qinghai, it was 6147 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [53] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply** - **Manganese Silicon Total Output**: As of February 27, 2026, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.74 million tons, an increase of 0.36 million tons week - on - week. In January 2026, the output of manganese silicon was 85.40 million tons, an increase of 1.05 million tons month - on - month, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.3 million tons or 3.72% [58] - **Manganese Silicon Output in Main Production Areas**: Not elaborated in detail in terms of specific data changes in the report [59] - **Silicon Iron Total Output**: As of February 27, 2026, the weekly output of silicon iron was 9.86 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons week - on - week, remaining at a low level compared to the same period. In January 2026, the output of silicon iron was 43.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.71 million tons month - on - month, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.43 million tons or 7.28% [68] - **Silicon Iron Output in Main Production Areas**: Not elaborated in detail in terms of specific data changes in the report [69] - **Demand** - **HeSteel Tendering**: In January 2026, HeSteel Group's tender volume for manganese silicon was 17,000 tons, an increase of 2300 tons month - on - month; the tender price was 5920 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. In February 2026, HeSteel Group's tender volume for 75B silicon iron alloy was 2150 tons, a decrease of 1163 tons month - on - month and an increase of 690 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5760 yuan/ton, remaining stable month - on - month [73] - **Manganese Silicon Apparent Consumption and Rebar Output**: As of February 27, 2026, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 11.02 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 165.1 million tons, a decrease of 5.28 million tons week - on - week [76] - **Pig Iron and Crude Steel Output**: As of February 27, 2026, the daily average pig iron production was 233.28 million tons, an increase of 2.79 million tons week - on - week. In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 68.18 billion tons, a decrease of 1.72 billion tons month - on - month and a decrease of 7.82 billion tons year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative crude steel output was 950 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 41.22 billion tons or 4.16% [78] - **Magnesium Metal**: In January 2026, the cumulative production of magnesium metal was 8.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.02%. As of February 27, 2026, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton week - on - week [83] - **Silicon Iron Exports**: From January to December 2025, China's cumulative silicon iron exports were 40.09 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.79 million tons or 6.50%. As of February 27, 2026, the estimated export profit of silicon iron was - 97 yuan/ton, remaining at a low level compared to the same period [86] 3.5 Inventory - **Manganese Silicon Visible Inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 63.8 million tons, an increase of 1.24 million tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 39.83 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons week - on - week. In February, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 18.57 days, an increase of 1.09 days month - on - month [94][97][100] - **Silicon Iron Visible Inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 8.81 million tons, a decrease of 3.49 million tons week - on - week (significantly affected by the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of February), remaining at a low level compared to the same period. In February, the average available days of silicon iron in steel mills was 18.72 days, an increase of 1.2 days month - on - month, and steel mills replenished inventory at a low level, with the raw material inventory continuing to rise month - on - month [103][106]

CONTENTS 目录 反内卷传闻再起， 等待需求确认 钢材周报 2026/02/28 0755-23375155 zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 （联系人） 从业资格号：F03133652 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 03 利润和库存 06 需求与进出口 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度小结 ◆ 供应：春节后第一周，铁水产量为233.28万吨，环比增加2.79万吨，同比+2.54%。高炉端开工率小幅回升，铁水延续修复态势，节后长流 程生产积极。螺纹钢产量为165.1万吨，环比-3.10%，同比-20.05%。在铁水回升的背景下，螺纹产量仍小幅回落，钢厂在品种结构上或向 板材倾斜。分结构看，长流程产量为162.5万吨，环比+0.58%，同比-6.97%，整体保持相对稳定；短流程产量为2.6万吨，环比-65.79%，同 比-88.31%，电炉端基本处于深度收缩状态，谷电利润转负（-16元/吨）对其形成明显压制。热轧卷板产量为309.61万吨，环比-0.06%，同 比-4.18%，基本与上周持平，板材供应端表现更为平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive developments in China's capital market since the implementation of the new "National Nine Articles," highlighting increased foreign participation and confidence in the long-term growth of the Chinese economy and capital market [2][3]. Group 1: Capital Market Developments - The new "National Nine Articles" have led to improvements in foundational systems, market functions, and the investment value of listed companies, as well as an expansion of high-level openness [2]. - Foreign institutions have shown a significant increase in willingness and enthusiasm to participate in China's capital market [2]. Group 2: Suggestions for the 14th Five-Year Plan - Suggestions include enhancing the adaptability and coverage of capital market services for the real economy, improving policy continuity and predictability, and increasing the investment value of listed companies while strengthening investor protection and corporate governance [2]. - There is a call to improve cross-border investment and financing facilitation, aligning with international standards and regulatory rules [2]. - The need for a dual approach of "bringing in" and "going out" for industry institutions is emphasized, supporting differentiated and specialized development of foreign institutions and enhancing local institutions' global resource allocation capabilities [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Focus - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to implement the directives from the 20th Central Committee and the upcoming National "Two Sessions," focusing on high-quality development in the capital market over the next five years [3]. - The CSRC emphasizes a market-oriented, legal, and international approach, using the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market as key reform tools [3]. - There is a commitment to creating a transparent, stable, and predictable market environment while encouraging foreign institutions to leverage their global resource allocation and expertise for the development of China's capital market [4].

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Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is planning key measures for the high-quality development of the capital market over the next five years, emphasizing risk prevention, strong regulation, and market-oriented reforms [1][2] Group 1: CSRC Initiatives - The CSRC aims to implement the "14th Five-Year Plan" for capital market development, focusing on enhancing the institutional framework, product offerings, and service systems to better support technological innovation and new productive forces [1] - The CSRC emphasizes the importance of foreign institutions in the Chinese capital market and encourages them to leverage their global resource allocation capabilities and professional experience to contribute to the market's high-quality development [1] Group 2: Feedback from Foreign Institutions - Participating foreign institutions noted significant improvements in China's capital market since the implementation of the new "National Nine Articles," including enhanced foundational systems, market functions, and increased foreign participation [2] - There is a consensus among foreign institutions regarding the long-term positive outlook for the Chinese economy and capital market, highlighting the need for continued improvements in policy predictability and investor protection [2] Group 3: Suggestions for Future Development - Specific suggestions from foreign institutions include enhancing the adaptability and inclusiveness of capital market systems, expanding high-level institutional openness, and improving the investment value of listed companies [2] - Recommendations also include facilitating cross-border investment and financing, aligning with international standards, and promoting a dual approach of "bringing in" and "going out" for industry institutions [2]