Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated February 2, 2026 [2] Group 2: Contract Data Contract Price and Volume - EC2602: Yesterday's close was 1716.7, down 0.05%, with a basis of 142.6, volume of 453, and open interest of 2551, down 261 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's close was 1227.0, down 1.82%, with a basis of 632.3, volume of 25237, and open interest of 35881, down 3788 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's close was 1542.8, down 2.11%, with a basis of 316.5, volume of 5606, and open interest of 12303, up 997 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's close was 1607.0, down 2.33%, with a basis of 252.3, volume of 694, and open interest of 1594, down 72 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's close was 1122.5, down 2.49%, with a basis of 736.8, volume of 2674, and open interest of 8134, down 799 [2] Month - Spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's spread was 489.7, with a daily increase of 21.9 and a weekly decrease of 36.8 [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's spread was - 315.8, with a daily increase of 10.5 and a weekly decrease of 68.4 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - The spot (European Line) "ટરનાટ" index on January 26, 2026 was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on January 30, 2026 was $1418/TEU, down 11.10% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Recommendations Short - Term Market - Geopolitical tensions, stable Maersk February quotes, and expected March rush shipments may prevent short - term price drops [3] Near - Month Contracts - For the 04 contract, shorting should be done with caution. Watch for significant premiums. Pay attention to PA Alliance quotes and geopolitical situations [3] Far - Month Contracts - Short the 10 contract on rallies, based on the logic of off - season and tax - refund negatives. The valuations of 06 and 08 are hard to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. Operate with caution under geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - Downstream is booking February 2 (Week 6 - 7) cabins. Ships are receiving good cargo, but the pressure to attract cargo is increasing, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships during the Spring Festival [4] - The price center in Week 7 is $2140, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures. Maersk's Week 8 - 9 quotes are $1950 (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies are also keeping their quotes unchanged for now [4] Group 6: News and Geopolitical Situation Military Exercise News - On February 1, Iranian officials said media reports about an Iranian Revolutionary Guard military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz were false, and no official statement had been issued [5] Diplomatic Negotiation News - On February 2, the US signaled a willingness to negotiate with Iran, and a meeting may be held in Turkey. However, experts believe that although both sides have a willingness to negotiate, there are serious differences, and the negotiation prospects are difficult [5][6]

2月2日午后，国内期货市场有超过10个期货品种主力合约封住或触及跌停，涉及黄金、白银、铂、钯、铜、铝、镍、原油、碳酸锂等。 截至2月2日收盘，贵金属方面，白银、铂、钯期货主力合约早早封住跌停，沪银期货跌幅17%，铂、钯期货跌幅16%；黄金期货午后一度触及跌停， 收跌15.73%。 有色金属集体走弱，沪铜、沪铝以9%的跌幅跌停，沪锡、沪镍以11%的跌幅跌停，沪铅跌2.31%，沪锌跌6.86%。氧化铝主连跌0.61%，铸造铝主连 以7%的跌幅跌停。 此外，碳酸锂期货主连以13.99%的跌幅跌停，多晶硅跌1.66%，工业硅跌1.18%。欧线集运主连跌3.06%报1184.6点。 为防范市场风险，2月2日，上海黄金交易所发布消息称，若2月2日白银延期合约Ag（T+D）出现单边市，当日收盘清算后上海黄金交易所将再次上 调白银延期合约Ag（T+D）交易保证及涨跌停板比例。此外，芝商所也将于2月2日收盘后进一步上调黄金、白银、铂、钯等品种的动态保证金比 例。 对于铜价走势，光大期货表示，随着贵金属的历史级调整，铜价也难免受到冲击调整，虽然调整力度弱于贵金属，但1月份以来主要由资金推动行情 的涨幅部分很有可能受到挑战。进入2 ...

沪银主力惊现跌停行情，今日白银期货开盘报25960元/千克，最高触及26780元/千克，最低触及24832 元/千克，截止收盘报24832元/千克，下跌17.00%。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已提名凯文·沃什接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔出任下一任美联储主席，其任期定于2026年 5月开始。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 59407 | -2193 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 40218 | 0 | | | 中工美供应链 | 331894 | 10079 | | | 合计 | 431519 | 7886 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 31104 | -331 | | 总计 | | 462623 | 7555 | 【基本面消息】 特朗普上周末表示，美国"有望"与伊朗达成协议。与此同时，伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊警 告称，任何对其国家的攻击都将引发地区冲突，而美国仍在附近持续集结兵力。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货2月2日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计462623千克，今日仓单较上一日 上涨7555千克。 美国劳工统计局上 ...

CME上调金银铂钯期货保证金比例。 【白银期货最新行情】 | 2月2日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 24832 | -17.00% | 674117 | 252527 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席，并称要求沃什降息不合适，降息无需白宫施压，沃什有望 获民主党人支持，并预期其将推动降息；白宫经济委员会主任哈塞特：白宫有信心沃什提名会迅速获得 确认。货币市场押注美联储今年将累计降息超过两次、每次25个基点。 特朗普认为即将就古巴达成一项协议，且指出格陵兰岛谈判已展开，认为协议已基本达成。 美国民主党参议员沃伦：在特朗普停止美联储调查之前，任何共和党人都不应同意推进沃什的提名。 美联储博斯蒂克：美联储现在无需降息，我们应该在利率问题上更加耐心；沃勒：当前利率区间为 3.50%-3.75%，而中性利率可能在3%左右；穆萨莱姆：进一步降息并不可取，当前政策已属中性，经济 无需刺激。 【机构观点】 银价高位资金离场，恐慌情绪蔓延，直线下挫，白 ...

1月30日，美联储理事凯文·沃什被提任为下任主席，市场普遍将其视为相对"鹰派"的人选，此举迅速扭 转了市场对美联储未来维持超宽松货币政策的预期，导致美元指数反弹，对以美元计价的贵金属形成直 接打压。但内在原因在于贵金属市场极端拥挤的多头持仓与技术性抛压，触发连锁的"多头踩踏式出 逃"。此外，芝商所上调金银期货保证金比例、主要商品指数因金银权重超标而进行的强制性再平衡抛 售，均放大了技术性卖压。 1月的贵金属市场经历了从"史诗级上涨"到"历史级跳水"的极限波动，但笔者认为，30日的剧烈调整是 对前期极端超买与过度拥挤交易的一次"挤泡沫和降杠杆"式的强制性清算，但支撑贵金属的长期核心变 量（如美元信用体系重构、去美元化储备趋势、地缘政治裂痕常态化）并未发生逆转，长期驱动逻辑依 然完整。进入2月，市场将更加关注宏观、政策信号与地缘事件驱动寻求贵金属的支撑点，波动率仍将 维持高位，但各品种将走向分化。黄金将展现其核心压舱石作用，其走势直接锚定于美元信用与全球避 险情绪，策略上逢低布局，区间操作为主。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2月2日早盘，伦敦现货黄金早盘大幅低开，跌幅一度扩大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Despite intensified external disturbances, A-shares maintain strong resilience due to sufficient domestic liquidity and positive market sentiment. Short - term index fluctuations are expected to be limited, and long - term investors can gradually build long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Driving Forces** - Economic and corporate profit factors are neutral to bearish. In January, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3% from 50.1% due to statistical factors and early Spring Festival returns. The non - manufacturing PMI also declined to 49.4% from 50.2%. The production and new order indices decreased by 1.1 and 1.6 percentage points respectively [3]. - Policy factors are neutral. The selling pace of broad - based ETFs has slowed recently. From January 15th, institutions concentrated on reducing broad - based index ETFs, with a cumulative scale of over 700 billion yuan by January 27th. However, the reduction speed decreased significantly on January 28th and 29th [3]. - Overseas factors are bearish. Trump's nomination of Warsh, a well - known hawk, as the new Fed Chairman has raised concerns about tighter overseas liquidity. On Friday, the US dollar rebounded sharply, and gold and silver prices tumbled [3]. - Liquidity factors are neutral to bullish. As of January 29th, the margin trading balance in A - shares was 2730.42 billion yuan, an increase of 15.94 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 264.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy** - The investment view is to go long opportunistically. Although external disturbances have intensified, the index is likely to remain resilient in the short - term. Long - term investors can gradually build long positions [3]. - The trading strategy is to go long opportunistically, with attention to overseas geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index and Futures Weekly Returns** - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 0.08% to 4706.3, the SSE 50 rose 1.13% to 3066.5, the CSI 500 fell 2.56% to 8370.5, and the CSI 1000 fell 2.55% to 8254.9 [5]. - For futures contracts, the IF main contract was flat, the IH main contract rose 3.60%, the IC main contract rose 8.49%, and the IM main contract rose 7.66% [6]. - **Industry Index Market Review** - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, the top - performing sectors last week were communication (5.8%), non - ferrous metals (3.4%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (1.8%), food and beverage (1.6%), and non - bank finance (1%). The underperforming sectors were national defense and military industry (-7.7%), power equipment (-5.1%), automobile (-5.1%), computer (-4.8%), and comprehensive (-4.7%) [10]. - **Stock Index Futures Volume and Open Interest Tracking** - For the CSI 300 futures, the trading volume was 814,420 lots, a 30.21% increase, and the open interest was 332,644 lots, a 10.98% increase [12]. - For the SSE 50 futures, the trading volume was 378,798 lots, a 43.27% increase, and the open interest was 122,366 lots, a 12.50% increase [12]. - For the CSI 500 futures, the trading volume was 1,061,171 lots, a 22.45% increase, and the open interest was 349,459 lots, a 2.41% increase [12]. - For the CSI 1000 futures, the trading volume was 1,257,463 lots, a 18.37% increase, and the open interest was 408,840 lots, a 3.24% increase [12]. - **Contract Premium and Discount** - As of January 30th, the current - month contract IF2602 had an annualized premium of 1.35%; IH2602 had an annualized premium of 0.97%; IC2602 had an annualized premium of 1.39%; IM2602 had an annualized premium of 5.8% [17]. - The next - month contract IF2603 had an annualized premium of 0.74%; IH2603 had an annualized premium of 1.82%; IC2603 had an annualized discount of 0.72%; IM2603 had an annualized premium of 0.52% [17]. - The current - quarter contract IF2606 had an annualized discount of 0.36%; IH2606 had an annualized premium of 1.15%; IC2606 had an annualized discount of 2.2%; IM2606 had an annualized discount of 3.51% [17]. - The next - quarter contract IF2609 had an annualized discount of 1.72%; IH2609 had an annualized discount of 0.69%; IC2609 had an annualized discount of 3.03%; IM2609 had an annualized discount of 4.94% [17]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance** - The spread of CSI 300 - SSE 50 was 1639.8, at the 95.3% historical quantile level; the spread of CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was - 115.7, at the 16.5% historical quantile level [21]. - The ratio of CSI 300/CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 22.5% historical quantile level; the ratio of SSE 50/CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 20% historical quantile level [21]. 3.3 Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - Liquidity** - This week, the central bank conducted 1761.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1181 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 580.5 billion yuan. There was also 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed - deposit operations were carried out [27]. - Next week, 1761.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases will mature, and 70 billion yuan in 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [27]. - **Market Volume and Margin Trading Balance** - As of January 29th, the margin trading balance in A - shares was 2730.42 billion yuan, an increase of 15.94 billion yuan from the previous week [33]. - As of January 29th, the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 9.6%, at the 77% quantile level in the past decade [33]. - The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 3280.6 billion yuan, 2921.5 billion yuan, 2992.3 billion yuan, 3259.4 billion yuan, and 2862.4 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 264.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [33]. - As of January 30th, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.24, at the 49.1% quantile level in the past decade [33]. 3.4 Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macro - Indicators** - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices was 4.5%, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year [36]. - The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from December 2025. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [45]. - **Corporate Earnings** - For major broad - based indices, the year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company and the return on net assets (TTM) showed different trends in different periods. For example, the CSI 300 had a year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 5.22% in Q3 2025, and a return on net assets (TTM) of 9.93% [50]. - For Shenwan primary industry indices, the profitability and return on net assets (TTM) also varied. For instance, the non - bank finance industry had a year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 38.65% in Q3 2025, and a return on net assets (TTM) of 12.94% [51]. 3.5 Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends** - The government has proposed to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand, promoting innovation, and stabilizing the real estate market [55]. - Policies such as optimizing housing purchase restrictions, increasing consumer subsidies, and supporting equipment updates have been introduced to boost the economy [55][57]. 3.6 Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators** - In December 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 47.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points [68]. - The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January 2026 was 56.4, an increase of 3.5 from the previous value [68]. - The seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate in December 2025 was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls (seasonally - adjusted) was 50,000 [68]. - **Trump Team's Actions** - Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, including increasing tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which have led to trade frictions and counter - measures [74][76]. 3.7 Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation Levels** - As of January 23, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.1 times, 11.5 times, 38.9 times, and 51.5 times respectively, at the 79%, 78.4%, 79.8%, and 76.1% quantile levels since October 2014 [83]. - **Sector Profitability and Valuation Levels** - Different sectors have different price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and their historical quantile levels. For example, the bank sector had a price - to - earnings ratio of 6.3, at the 44% historical quantile level in the past decade, and a price - to - book ratio of 0.5, at the 26% historical quantile level [88].

贵金属市场风云突变，此前一路高歌猛进的黄金和白银掉头向下，上演了一场惊心动魄的"高台跳水"。 近日，黄金、白银迎来暴击。1月31日，伦敦金现盘中一度大跌超12%，创40年来最大单日跌幅；白银更是上 演"断崖式下跌"，一度暴跌超35%。然而，到了2月2日，暴跌仍未停止，现货黄金失守4500美元/盎司，为1月9 日以来首次，日内跌近8%；纽约期银跌破72美元/盎司，日内跌超8%。 价格的波动本是市场的常态，但此次金银价格从暴涨到暴跌的极端表现，再次凸显了当前全球金融市场的复杂 性和脆弱性。从宏观风向到交易结构，再到投资者的非理性行为，多重因素交织共振，最终酿成了一场剧烈的 市场震荡，这不仅是一次价格回调，更像一堂深刻而及时的风险警示课。 宽松预期接连动摇 市场普遍认为，美联储下届主席人选及政策风向转变，是本轮金银"高台跳水"的导火索。 当地时间1月30日晚间，美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，而凯文·沃什此前长期以鹰派立场闻 名，主张降息缩表，被华尔街投资者普遍定义为"鹰派中略偏鸽"的候选人，叠加美国PPI再度抬头，1月29日美 联储议息会议维持基准利率不变，市场此前较为一致的宽松预期被接连动摇。 消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal market has experienced a significant correction, with multiple futures contracts hitting the limit down, indicating a strong need for market adjustment after a period of rapid price increases [1][3]. Market Performance - On February 2, the domestic futures market saw major declines, with gold and silver futures contracts dropping by 15.73% and 17% respectively, while copper, aluminum, and nickel also fell between 9% and 11% [1][2]. - The closing prices were reported as follows: gold at 1008.6 yuan/gram, silver at 24832 yuan, copper at 98580 yuan, and nickel at 130,000 yuan [2]. Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off was triggered by a shift in macroeconomic expectations, particularly following the nomination of Kevin Warsh, a hawkish figure, as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which led to a strengthening of the US dollar and increased pressure on dollar-denominated metals [3][4]. - The market had previously accumulated significant risks, with the Shenyin Wanguo colored metal index showing a monthly increase of 22.59% in January, and silver futures rising over 50% during the same period [3][4]. Regulatory Response - In response to the overheated market, domestic regulatory bodies have implemented measures to curb excessive speculation, including raising margin requirements and enhancing monitoring of trading activities [4]. - These actions aim to increase trading costs and promote rational market participation, which may help in stabilizing the market [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market may enter a phase of consolidation as it digests profit-taking and reassesses Federal Reserve policy [4][5]. - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term fundamentals supporting the colored metal sector remain intact, particularly for metals linked to green energy and AI industries, which are expected to regain upward momentum once market sentiment stabilizes [4][5].

2月2日，国内期市有色金属板块全线飘绿。其中，铸造铝合金期货主力合约开盘报22805.0元/吨，今日 盘中低位震荡运行；截至发稿，铸造铝合金主力最高触及22960.0元，下方探低21840.0元，跌幅达 7.00%附近。 新湖期货指出，近期消费端总体走弱，订单下降，部分压铸企业减产明显。而再生铝合金企业产业也小 幅下降，但库存继续攀升，总体库存处于相对高位。不过由于废料价格上涨，再生铝合金企业成本上 涨，现货价格也跟随上调。高库存有压力，成本上涨则有支撑，短期铸造铝合金多空交织，仍难形成有 力驱动，仍跟随铝价为主。操作上建议谨慎操作。 国信期货分析称，原料方面，近期铝价抬升下，废铝报价亦随之全线大幅上调，且考虑到废铝自身供应 趋紧的情况，废铝将呈现出更强的抗跌性。随着现货价格走高，再生铝行业扭亏为盈，但原料价格同步 上涨，成本压力、原料供应的限制以及环保管制下，再生铝行业开工率难以回升，预计春节前包括 ADC12在内的再生铝产量难有增长。需求方面存在车企长单的支撑，但暂难给予价格上涨动力。近期 再生铝社会库存持续去库，但仍处于历史高位。整体而言，短期内铝合金预计随铝价自高位回调震荡， 中长期以偏多思路对待。 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]