1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility strategy for sellers is recommended as they show a bullish upward trend [2]. - For the black - series metals, a strategy of shorting volatility is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations [2]. - For precious metals, a bull - spread combination strategy is suggested as they are rebounding and rising [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc [3]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of different metal options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and their offsets, as well as the maximum open interests of call and put options for different metal options, are given to analyze the pressure and support levels of the option underlyings [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility for various metal options [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Suggestions 3.3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: A bull - spread combination strategy for call options is recommended for directional trading; a short - volatility option seller combination strategy is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot hedging strategy of holding long spot, buying put options, and selling out - of - the - money call options is proposed [7]. - **Aluminum**: A bull - spread combination strategy for call options is recommended for direction; a strategy of selling bullish call and put options is suggested to gain time - value and directional returns; and a spot collar strategy is proposed [9]. - **Zinc**: There is no directional strategy; a strategy of selling bullish call and put options is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot collar strategy is proposed [9]. - **Nickel**: There is no directional strategy; a strategy of selling bullish call and put options is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot covered - call strategy is proposed [10]. - **Tin**: There is no directional strategy; a short - volatility strategy is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot collar strategy is proposed [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is no directional strategy; a strategy of selling bullish call and put options is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot hedging strategy of holding long spot, buying put options, and selling call options is proposed [11]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: There is no directional strategy; a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot hedging strategy of holding long spot, buying put options, and selling out - of - the - money call options is proposed [12]. 3.3.3 Black - Series Metals - **Rebar**: There is no directional strategy; a strategy of selling bearish call and put options is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot covered - call strategy is proposed [13]. - **Iron Ore**: There is no directional strategy; a strategy of selling neutral call and put options is suggested to gain time - value and directional returns; and a spot long - collar strategy is proposed [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Silicon Ferros)**: For manganese silicon, there is no directional strategy; a short - volatility strategy is suggested to gain time - value; and no spot hedging strategy is proposed. For industrial silicon, there is no directional strategy; a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options is suggested to gain time - value and directional returns; and a spot hedging strategy of holding long spot, buying put options, and selling call options is proposed [14]. - **Glass**: There is no directional strategy; a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot long - collar strategy is proposed [15].

【导读】上午A股三大指数集体上涨，商业航天、人形机器人板块大涨，大金融领跌 大家好，今天是周五，基金君和你继续关注市场行情！ 1月9日上午，A股三大股指集体上涨，沪指时隔十年再度站上4100点，半日成交额超2万亿元。 截至午间收盘，沪指报4095.33点，涨0.3%，深证成指涨0.57%，创业板指涨0.1%。 沪深两市半日成交额达2.06万亿元，较上个交易日放量2963亿元。个股跌多涨少，全市场共2343只个股上涨，64只个股涨停，2928只个股下跌。 从板块看，航天军工、人形机器人、有色金属、文化传媒、贵金属等板块涨幅居前；化纤行业、光伏设备等板块下挫，大金融再度走低，银行保险等板块 跌幅居前。 来看具体情况—— 商业航天概念板块持续走强 上午，军工板块持续拉升，商业航天概念板块再度走强。 个股方面，观想科技（301213）涨超13%，上海瀚讯（300762）大涨超12%，航天电子（600879）、中国卫星（600118）、金风科技（002202）、航天智 装（300455）、星图测控、航宇微（300053）、航天宏图、雷电微力（301050）、航天彩虹（002389）、蓝盾光电（300862）等涨幅居前。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market for basic metals is under pressure due to a strong US dollar and shifting macroeconomic sentiment, with aluminum being the only metal to show a slight increase in price [4]. Group 1: Price Movements - Copper prices have significantly retreated, with 1 copper reported at 100,680 yuan/ton, down 1,940 yuan from the previous day, primarily due to macroeconomic sentiment and adjustments in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2]. - Aluminum prices have shown resilience, with A00 aluminum at 24,030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, supported by a clear long-term supply-demand structure and relatively low social inventory levels [2]. - Zinc prices have slightly weakened, with 0 and 1 zinc at 24,050 yuan/ton and 23,950 yuan/ton respectively, both down 150 yuan, reflecting concerns over weak demand in traditional sectors [2]. - Lead prices have also declined, with 1 lead at 17,350 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan, amid a lack of consumer demand and a cautious market atmosphere [2]. - Tin prices have corrected from previous highs, with 1 tin at 351,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and uncertainty regarding semiconductor demand recovery [3]. - Nickel prices have seen a significant drop, with 1 nickel at 143,850 yuan/ton, down 6,200 yuan, due to its sensitivity to changes in the dollar and interest rate expectations, alongside concerns over oversupply [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influences - The market is currently experiencing a cautious sentiment influenced by a strong dollar and technical adjustments following previous price increases, with aluminum standing out due to its strong fundamental logic [4]. - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming US non-farm payroll data, which could guide short-term market direction [4]. - The potential for a short-term rebound in metal prices may arise from factors such as weaker-than-expected non-farm data, which could reignite expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and lead to a dollar decline [5]. - Technical adjustments following index rebalancing may alleviate some selling pressure in the market [6]. - Geopolitical tensions could trigger safe-haven demand, potentially impacting metal prices [7].

【导读】 上午A股 三大指数 集体上涨，商业航天、人形机器人板块大涨，大金融领跌 从板块看， 航天军工、人形机器人、有色金属、文化传媒、贵金属等板块涨幅居前；化纤行业、光伏设备等板块下挫，大金融再度走低， 银行保险等板块跌幅居前。 中国基金报记者 张舟 大家好， 今天是周五， 基金君和你 继续 关注市场行情！ 1月9 日上午，A股三大股指 集体上涨，沪指时隔十年再度站上4100点， 半日成交额 超2 万亿元 。 截至午间收盘，沪指 报4095.33点，涨0.3 %，深证成指 涨0.57 %，创业板指 涨0.1 %。 沪深两市半日成交额 达2.06 万亿元 ，较上个交易日放量2963亿元 。 个股 跌多涨少，全 市场 共2343 只个股上涨， 64 只个股涨停， 2928 只个股下跌。 | | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 稀有金属 5.08% | 拼多多合作商 4.32% | 稀土 3.94% | 小红书平台 3.61% | Kimi ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by strong international prices and optimistic market sentiment regarding supply and demand dynamics in the copper market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 9, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed an upward trend, with the precious metals sector collectively surging [1]. - The ETF for non-ferrous metals (159871) rose by 2.44%, reaching a peak increase of over 3% during the session [1]. - Notable stocks such as Yunnan Zhenye and Xiamen Tungsten hit the daily limit of a 10% increase, while Western Superconducting and others saw increases exceeding 8% [1]. Group 2: Price Movements - As of January 9, COMEX gold futures increased by 0.48%, reaching $4,483.30 per ounce, maintaining a high level following previous record highs [1]. - The domestic copper spot price has surpassed 100,000 yuan per ton by the end of 2025, indicating strong momentum in the sector [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global geopolitical tensions and expectations of liquidity easing are driving safe-haven investments into the precious metals market [2]. - The demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, is robust due to its extensive applications in power equipment, new energy vehicles, and data centers, supported by advancements in domestic manufacturing and emerging industries [2]. - The industrial use of silver is expanding in fields such as photovoltaics and electronics, further enhancing consumption potential [2]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The long-term trend of the non-ferrous metals sector remains positive, with recommendations to focus on the non-ferrous metals ETF (159871) to capture structural opportunities [3].

Group 1: Overall Investment Outlook - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on commodities but expects the upward pace to slow and volatility to increase. In the long - term, copper and aluminum in the non - ferrous sector may have potential for supplementary growth, while the black sector's short - term trading value depends on capital sentiment. Crude oil is in a downward trend, and lithium carbonate has significant risks. Precious metals are more suitable for allocation through ETFs [1]. Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - The domestic "moderately loose" monetary policy and "integrated effect" regulatory approach provide a warm liquidity expectation. Internationally, the US Treasury Secretary's call for the Fed to cut interest rates signals potential risks. The US employment report in December has hidden problems, and the market is divided on the Fed's policy direction [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - After the release of the US initial jobless claims data, the US dollar index rose, and the RMB exchange rate showed a certain trend. Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.96 level [1][5]. Stock Index - The previous sharp rise driven by capital has weakened, and the large - cap and small - cap stock indices showed a differentiated trend. Short - term stock indices may face adjustment, but if trading enthusiasm remains and policy benefits are expected, they may strengthen after a phased consolidation [5]. Treasury Bonds - The short - term bond market may continue to recover if the A - share market continues to fluctuate, but the upside space is limited. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be gradually closed for profit [6]. Container Shipping (European Line) - The spot market shows signs of weakness, and the futures price is expected to be in a weakening and volatile pattern in the short term [10]. Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - The spot market of the lithium battery industry chain performs well, but the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology warns of irrational competition. Investors are advised to focus on structural long - term opportunities after corrections [12][13]. Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - The regulatory policy will make the polysilicon futures price return to the fundamental supply - demand and marginal cost logic. The polysilicon market is in a supply - demand weak situation, and the industrial silicon price is expected to weaken [13][15]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US interest rate cut expectation will disrupt market sentiment. After a sharp decline, the copper price will repair. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90,000 - 100,000 range [16][18]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the long - term, with short - term correction pressure. Alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and casting aluminum alloy is recommended to be bullish. It can be considered to go long on aluminum alloy and short on aluminum when the price difference is large [18][20]. Zinc - Zinc is in a continuous adjustment state, with short - term high - level volatility expected [20][21]. Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices have significantly corrected. The nickel price is at a high valuation, and the risk of Indonesia's quota release needs to be noted [21][22]. Tin - Tin has a technical correction. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on corrections [24]. Lead - Lead has fallen back to the shock range. It is expected to be volatile in the future [25][26]. Oilseeds and Fats Oilseeds - Oilseeds are in a bottom - shock state. The supply pressure from Brazil next year will suppress the rebound of the main contract, but the short - term supply gap may cause a phased rebound in the near - month contract [27][28]. Fats - The palm oil market sentiment has warmed up, and short - term fats are expected to have a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the MPOB data and the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister [28][29]. Energy and Oil & Gas Asphalt - The conflict between the US and Venezuela may lead to a short - term supply disruption of heavy crude oil, and the asphalt cracking spread may be strong in the short term [30][31]. Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium are expected to be volatile and bullish in the long - term. In the short term, attention should be paid to the index adjustment and non - farm data, and the risk of correction should be vigilant [32][33]. Gold & Silver - Precious metals are in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall. They are in a high - level shock in the short term, and the long - term trend is bullish. Corrections can be regarded as opportunities to add long positions [35][37]. Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp spot price has generally fallen, and the market is neutral to bearish. It is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions [38][39]. LPG - Geopolitical factors provide support. The domestic supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the PDH maintenance situation [40][41]. PTA - PX - PTA shows high self - discipline, and the PX - TA structural contradiction has been significantly alleviated. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026, and it is recommended to go long on corrections [42][44]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The demand negative feedback of ethylene glycol is intensifying. The polyester load is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory pressure is high [45][46]. Methanol - Methanol is likely to start an upward - shock phase. Attention should be paid to the inventory change and the restart of the MTO device [48][49]. PP - The short - term fundamentals of PP have improved, but the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival may limit the upside space [49][50]. PE - PE is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the macro situation and inventory pressure [51][52]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a situation of weak domestic and strong overseas. Styrene has short - term positive news, but it is not recommended to chase high in the off - season [52][53]. Soda Ash - Soda ash has a high - level supply expectation in the long - term, and the price is restricted by the high inventory [54][55]. Glass - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired. The current high - level inventory needs to be digested [56]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a weak - reality state, with a wide - range shock expected and weak fundamental driving force [57]. Propylene - Propylene may have an upward price expectation due to cost factors, but attention should be paid to the upside risk before the fundamentals improve [58][59]. Black Metals Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil - The steel price is expected to be in a shock trend, with the rebar 2605 contract price range at 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract at 3000 - 3400 [59]. Iron Ore - The iron ore fundamentals are neutral. Attention should be paid to the inventory release policy risk, and long positions are advised to be reduced on high [60][61]. Coking Coal & Coke - The coal - coke market may turn into a small - range shock if the macro sentiment cools down [62][63]. Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a shock - bullish trend. The increase in production and inventory may suppress the upward rhythm, but the downside space is limited [63][64]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The pig price is expected to remain in a low - level narrow - range shock pattern without significant improvement in the supply - demand structure [65]. Cotton - The cotton market is affected by the expectation of tight supply - demand and potential policy changes. It is recommended to go long on corrections [66]. Sugar - The sugar price is in a shock and pressured state, and attention should be paid to the movement of raw sugar [66][67]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to be shock - bullish before the Spring Festival, but the risk of price correction after the festival should be vigilant [68][69]. Apples - The apple market has a problem of shortage of delivery products. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking situation [69][70]. Jujubes - Jujube prices are expected to be in a low - level shock in the short term and pressured in the long - term [71][73]. Logs - Logs are recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy, with a reference interval of 760 - 790 [74][75].

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指涨0.67%，A股成交量778.18亿股，成交金额14113.75 亿元，比上一个交易日增加7.74%。个股方面，3414只个股上涨，其中涨停65只，1752只个股下跌，其 中跌停3只。从申万行业来看，有色金属、综合、国防军工等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为3.30%、2.87%、 2.74%；银行、轻工制造、交通运输等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为0.52%、0.34%、0.16%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:28） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 3.30 | 861.38 | 7.77 | 云南锗业 | 10.01 | | 综合 | 2.87 | 24.48 | -23.77 | 东阳光 | 5.77 | | 国防军工 | 2.74 | 1413.95 | 28.78 | 华秦科技 | 14.92 | | 商贸零售 | 1.91 | 193.86 | 35.80 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal bull market is expected to continue due to geopolitical disturbances, major power competition, and energy revolution [3][4] - The mining ETF (561330) has seen a significant increase, with over 530 million yuan net inflow for 10 consecutive days, indicating strong market interest [1][3] - Supply uncertainties for resource products are rising, particularly due to geopolitical tensions and labor strikes affecting major mining operations in regions like Latin America [3][4] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) is outperforming other ETFs, ranking third in overall market performance for 2025, with a focus on leading companies in the sector [4] - The top ten components of the mining ETF account for 56.13% of its total weight, indicating a more concentrated investment in leading firms compared to the broader non-ferrous index [4][6] - The index has a higher proportion of gold, copper, and rare earths at 55.8%, compared to 50.9% in the broader non-ferrous index, enhancing its performance potential [7] Group 3 - The copper market is expected to benefit from supply-demand imbalances and a favorable interest rate environment, with historical trends suggesting price increases during rate cuts [12] - Aluminum supply is constrained, with limited capacity growth expected in 2026, while new demand from sectors like renewable energy is anticipated to support high prices [12] - Lithium demand is projected to grow significantly due to energy storage needs, with a potential supply-demand balance expected by 2026, driving prices upward [13] Group 4 - The rare earth market is seeing limited easing of export restrictions, which could enhance profit margins and valuations due to high overseas demand [14] - The mining ETF (561330) currently has a scale of 1.561 billion yuan, leading its category, and has shown a remarkable increase of 106.11% in 2025, making it the top performer among non-ferrous ETFs [14]

接着奏乐接着舞！1月9日，有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格盘中猛拉3.33%，再创历史新高！截至发稿，获资金实时净申购5280万份，此前10日累计吸金 2.79亿元，伴随火热行情，资金狂涌！ 成份股方面，为商业航天提供有色金属的概念股显著领涨，云南锗业涨停，厦门钨业涨超9%，驰宏锌锗涨逾7%，海亮股份、西部超导等个股跟涨。权重股 方面，洛阳钼业涨超4%，紫金矿业、山东黄金涨逾3%，中国铝业、北方稀土涨超2%。 消息面上，中国央行连续第14个月增持黄金。国金证券指出，全球滞胀、秩序混沌、美国赤字货币化的核心支撑逻辑未变。展望2026年，黄金牛市基础依然 稳固，上涨趋势未改，且有望外溢至相关有色金属及战略金属领域。 放眼海外，本周五（北京时间 1月9日21：30），美国统计局将发布12月非农就业报告。中信建投期货表示，2026年美联储货币政策偏鸽，大概率进一步渐 进式降息，为有色市场提供偏多环境。东方证券指出，美联储降息周期里，供需偏紧的实物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较大的价格弹性。本轮 降息周期下，以铜、铝为代表的工业金属超级周期或已来临。 国联民生证券认为，美国降息周期延续，流动性宽松继续利好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4100-point mark for the first time in 10 years, indicating a significant bullish trend in the market [1][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4110.37, up 27.39 points or 0.67% - The Shenzhen Component Index rose to 14097.44, increasing by 137.95 points or 0.99% - The ChiNext Index climbed to 1787.39, up 20.82 points or 1.18% - The total trading volume in the market was 1.75 trillion, with a predicted increase to 3.12 trillion, up by 291.1 billion [2]. Sector Performance - The defense and military industry led the market with a nearly 4% increase, with stocks like Huayin Technology and Guoke Military reaching a 20% limit up [3]. - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed well, with a rise of over 2%, featuring stocks like Yunnan Zhiye and Antai Technology hitting the limit up [4]. - The machinery equipment sector saw a significant increase of over 2%, with stocks such as Jizhi Co. and Shaoyang Hydraulic reaching the limit up [5]. Notable Stocks - Huayin Technology (688281) at 93.47, up 20.00% - Guoke Military (688543) at 75.96, up 20.00% - Shanghai Hanyun (300762) at 51.65, up 16.70% - Jizhi Co. (300553) at 47.86, up 20.01% - Shaoyang Hydraulic (301079) at 59.52, up 20.00% [4][6]. ETF Performance - Several ETFs related to "satellite" and "rare earth" sectors experienced significant gains, with increases exceeding 5% [8]. Risk Alerts - Companies like Zhite New Materials and Hongxun Technology have issued risk alerts due to abnormal stock price fluctuations, indicating potential volatility and divergence from fundamental values [12][13].