Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to perform well after the National Day holiday, with most institutions recommending holding stocks during the holiday period due to optimistic market sentiment and favorable underlying conditions [1][4][5]. Market Sentiment and Trends - Short-term fluctuations have not altered the overall positive trend of the market, with October anticipated to be a critical window for risk appetite to improve [3][7]. - Historical data suggests that the market typically performs well after the National Day holiday, supported by reasonable valuations and ongoing favorable conditions [5][12]. Sector Focus - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is highlighted as a key area of focus, with potential catalysts from ongoing industry trends and the commencement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [5][9]. - The technology sector is expected to continue its strong performance, with opportunities for investors to capitalize on high and low valuation stocks within this space [16]. Investment Strategy - Institutions recommend maintaining stock positions during the holiday to leverage potential market gains, with a focus on sectors showing resilience and growth potential, such as high-end manufacturing and AI [19][20]. - The investment framework should prioritize sectors related to resource security, overseas expansion, and technological innovation, emphasizing industries with real profit generation and strong trends [20].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The market adjustment is viewed as an opportunity, with the Chinese stock market expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the demand for assets and capital market reforms aimed at improving investor returns [2][3] - The transition from an "L-shaped" economic recovery to a more stable growth pattern is becoming clearer, with listed companies showing revenue and inventory growth for two consecutive quarters [3][4] - The upcoming capital market reforms, including the launch of the growth tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the resumption of the fifth set of listing standards, are anticipated to accelerate market recovery [2][3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Emerging technology remains a key focus, with recommendations for sectors such as internet, semiconductor, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics, while also suggesting an increase in allocation to cyclical financial stocks [4] - The financial sector has seen a correction but offers potential for increased dividend returns, making it valuable for investors [4] - The shift in economic governance is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics for cyclical goods, including metals, chemicals, real estate, and new energy [4] Group 3: Thematic Recommendations - Investment in domestic computing power infrastructure and the increasing penetration of domestic supply chains are highlighted as promising areas [5] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to benefit from satellite mobile communication licenses, with investment opportunities in liquid rockets and satellite payloads [5] - The trend of "de-involution" is seen as beneficial for sectors like lithium batteries, energy storage, and aquaculture, indicating a positive shift in market dynamics [5] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Insights - The valuation of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, remains attractive, with significant upside potential compared to historical averages [9][10] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently trading at a PE ratio of 23.7, which is below its historical average, suggesting room for valuation recovery [10] - The anticipated inflow of foreign capital and the positive impact of AI on the technology sector are expected to drive the Hong Kong market to new highs in the fourth quarter [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [58]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the implementation of significant financial policies over the past year has provided strong support for market stabilization and confidence recovery, with a notable increase in A-share market activity [5][17]. - The insurance sector has shown robust growth, with total insurance premium income reaching CNY 4.80 trillion from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [5][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes in the insurance industry, particularly the ongoing revision of the Insurance Law, which is expected to enhance risk management and improve the competitive landscape [5][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index reported a gain of 1.07% during the week of September 22-26, 2025, while the non-bank index experienced a slight decline of 0.09% [8]. - The insurance sector index increased by 0.46%, although it underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite [8]. 2. Non-Bank Financial Data - As of September 26, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was CNY 23,134.62 billion, reflecting an increase of 54.56% year-on-year [13]. - The financing balance in the margin trading market reached CNY 24,443.66 billion, up 31.1% from the end of 2024 [13]. 3. Key Announcements - The report notes that the basic pension insurance fund's investment scale has doubled compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, now standing at CNY 2.6 trillion [14]. - The introduction of cross-border bond repurchase business is expected to enhance liquidity for foreign institutions in the onshore bond market [15]. 4. Individual Stock Highlights - In the insurance sector, notable stock performances included New China Life (+2.67%) and China Pacific Insurance (+0.89%) in A-shares, while several H-shares experienced declines [10]. - In the brokerage sector, Xiangcai Securities saw a significant increase of 16.87%, while Tianfeng Securities faced a decline of 4.60% [10].

Macroeconomic Insights - In the first eight months of 2025, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China reached 46,929.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [2] - State-owned enterprises reported a profit of 15,156.5 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year, while private enterprises saw a profit increase of 3.3% to 13,076.1 billion yuan [2] - In August, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises rebounded significantly, showing a year-on-year growth of 20.4% after a decline of 1.5% in the previous month [2] PMI Data Release - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is set to be released on September 30, with August's manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, also showing an increase and remaining above the critical point, suggesting continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [3] Financial Sector Updates - The People's Bank of China suggested enhancing monetary policy regulation to improve its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness [6] - The 2025 classification evaluation of securities firms revealed 53 firms rated as A, 43 as B, and 11 as C, with A-class firms making up approximately 50% of the total [7] Market Developments - The Dalian Wanda Group and its representative Wang Jianlin have been restricted from high consumption due to a forced execution of 1.86 billion yuan [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, issued a growth stabilization plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% from 2025 to 2026 [8] New Stock and Market Activity - A new stock, Daoshengtianhe, will be available for online subscription starting September 29, priced at 5.98 yuan per share [12] - This week, 36 companies will have their restricted shares released, totaling approximately 48.82 billion shares and an estimated market value of 400.81 billion yuan [13][14]

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 (8621)23297818× luozh@swsresearch.com 2025 年 09 月 28 日 金管局再提保险法修订，预定利率 下调预期带动 8 月保费表现亮眼 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/9/22-2025/9/26） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收跌 0.18%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.25pct。1）"9·24"一揽子政策 实施一周年，资本市场高质量稳增长态势巩固。根据中证报，截至 9 月 25 日，市场融资融券余额 为 24,443.66 亿元。今年以来 A 股市场有 4 个交易日单日成交额 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance sector, suggesting it is a growth area within the financial industry due to supply-side reforms and benefits from rising equity assets [2][17] - The securities sector is viewed as relatively undervalued with high growth potential, particularly in light of ongoing industry improvements and potential mergers and acquisitions [3][19] - The banking sector is expected to see a medium to long-term valuation recovery, with limited downside risk due to strong fundamentals [4][20] Core Insights - The non-bank financial index experienced a slight decline of -0.09%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.16 percentage points [1][11] - The insurance sector has made significant progress in cost reduction, achieving a cumulative cost reduction of 350 billion yuan since 2024, with the lowest comprehensive cost and expense ratios in nearly a decade for property insurance [2][14] - The securities sector is projected to achieve a net profit of 67 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting an 86% year-on-year increase, supported by a favorable market environment [3][19] - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.53, indicating substantial room for valuation recovery, with a focus on banks with high growth and low non-performing loans [4][20] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's index rose by 0.46%, but still underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.61 percentage points [2][14] - The sector is benefiting from regulatory support and a focus on cost efficiency, with significant reductions in operational costs [2][15] - Investment recommendations include China Pacific Insurance (A+H), New China Life Insurance (A+H), and Ping An Insurance (A) [2][17] Securities Sector - The securities index fell by 0.18%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.25 percentage points [3][18] - The sector is characterized by ongoing digital transformation and potential for mergers, with a projected net profit of 67 billion yuan for Q3 2025 [3][19] - Recommended stocks include Huatai Securities (A+H), GF Securities (A+H), and Dongfang Securities (A+H) [3][19] Banking Sector - The banking index declined by 0.48%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.55 percentage points [4][20] - The banking sector's PB ratio is at 0.53, indicating a favorable valuation environment for long-term investments [4][20] - Investment focus should be on banks with diversified operations and stable performance, such as Hangzhou Bank and China CITIC Bank (H) [4][21]

Core Viewpoint - Despite differing short-term market outlooks among institutions, there is a consensus on "controlling positions and maintaining a good investment mindset" as the market shifts towards performance verification trading logic with gradual valuation recovery [1][4]. Position Control - Analysts suggest focusing on position control to manage market exposure effectively, allowing investors to stay attentive to market changes while maintaining a stable investment mindset [4][6]. - Active investors are advised to hold stocks during the holiday to capture potential risk premiums, while conservative investors should focus on high-dividend or domestic consumption sectors, which are expected to have lower volatility [3][4]. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - The market is currently experiencing high trading activity, with financing transactions at levels not seen since 2018, indicating a resurgence in investor participation [3]. - Analysts predict that if no major risk events occur during the holiday, funds may flow back into the stock market post-holiday, despite existing uncertainties in the overseas environment [3][4]. Investment Strategies - The "long-term base + short-term elasticity" investment model is gaining attention, aiming to balance stable long-term returns with short-term risk control [5]. - This model suggests a combination of low-valuation, high cash flow defensive assets for stability, alongside high-growth potential sectors for enhanced overall returns [5][6]. Economic and Market Outlook - Future A-share market performance will be influenced by overseas monetary policies, geopolitical situations, and domestic economic recovery [6]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining a certain level of positions during market uptrends and focusing on key sectors without overly pursuing left-side trading strategies [6].

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 17.33, with a historical average of 25.85[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 14.08, while the CSI 300 Index stands at 13.30[10] - The growth in earnings per share (EPS) has contributed significantly to the index performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a current value of 16.41%[14] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.84, with a historical maximum of 22.67[59] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has a PE (TTM) of 23.69, indicating a higher valuation compared to the broader market[63] U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.36, with a historical maximum of 41.99[82] - The NASDAQ Index shows a PE (TTM) of 42.83, reflecting its growth-oriented nature[90] Sector Valuation Insights - In the A-share market, the food and beverage sector has a low PE, while the technology sector has a high PE, indicating sector-specific valuation disparities[21] - The banking sector in Hong Kong has a current PB (LF) of 1.02, which is relatively low compared to other sectors[71] Key Stock Valuations - Major stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have median PEs of 29.04 and 22.36, respectively, indicating strong market positions[50] - Alibaba's current PE (TTM) is 19.53, reflecting its recovery potential in the market[75]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the growth style of the market has shone brightly in September, aligning with previous predictions of reaching a peak. It suggests that in October, the growth style will continue to thrive but with increased volatility, advocating for a balanced allocation between cyclical and technology sectors [1][2][3] Sector Rotation: Focus on Broad Growth Direction, Cyclical and Consumer Sectors - The market style is leaning towards mid and large-cap stocks, with growth outperforming value. The cyclical and consumer sectors are expected to be relatively dominant in October [2][12] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October remains high at 91.9%, which is anticipated to create a favorable financial environment for growth stocks [2][33] Industry Allocation: Focus on Technology, Cyclical, and Large Financial Sectors - The top ten industries based on scoring include electric power equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals, machinery, communication, agriculture, electronics, non-bank financials, basic chemicals, consumer services, and computers [4][46] - The report emphasizes a "win rate" approach, favoring investments in electric power, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals, while a "odds" approach suggests focusing on underperforming sectors like brokerage firms and real estate [4][47] Next Month's Sector Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on broad growth styles, particularly in cyclical and consumer sectors. It highlights the importance of investing in electric power, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals, while also considering underperforming sectors like brokerage firms and real estate [5][46]

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook on the technology sector and suggests that leading companies in the new energy sector with core technological reserves should be considered for investment during market dips [2][4][8] - The market has shown a strong performance, with the ChiNext Index reaching new highs, supported by the rise of technology stocks and leading new energy companies [4][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of asset quality, advising investors to hold shares of companies with solid fundamentals and clear industry prospects while suggesting to sell stocks that have risen excessively without fundamental support [3][9] Group 2 - The gaming sector has seen significant gains, driven by advancements in AI technology, which benefits the media and entertainment industry, particularly in gaming and interactive content [6] - New energy stocks have also experienced substantial increases, supported by government initiatives aimed at optimizing industry layout and promoting advanced technologies [7] - The report highlights that the new energy sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with a focus on lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and wind energy, as global demand for these technologies remains strong [7][8]