Group 1 - A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.48% on the first trading day of February 2026, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2025 [1] - Some funds shifted from cyclical and technology sectors to defensive sectors such as agriculture and consumer goods, while the overall strategy remains focused on AI technology and cyclical sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in the A-share market is attributed to multiple factors, including overseas liquidity expectations due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, which raised concerns about tightening financial conditions [2] - The commodity market's high volatility, particularly in gold and silver prices, also contributed to the market downturn [2] - The approach of the Chinese New Year holiday has led to increased market caution and observation [2] Group 3 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the current market issues are primarily due to overtrading of trend assets, and the weak dollar cycle is not ending but rather shifting in logic [3] - The long-term logic of "cyclical Alpha, supply constraints + new economic demand + strategic resource security + weak dollar" remains intact [3][4] Group 4 - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that a prolonged period of market fluctuation is expected before a new upward trend emerges, with a focus on AI applications and the chemical sector [4] - The AI industry continues to progress, with potential gradual transition towards application, while the cyclical Alpha recovery has not yet reached extreme values [4] Group 5 - Guotai Junan believes that after the market decline, there is potential for stabilization and a recovery in the upward trend before the Chinese New Year, maintaining a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market [5] - The focus is shifting towards domestic demand, which is expected to enhance the economic outlook and asset returns [5] Group 6 - Emerging technologies are seen as a main investment theme, with recommendations for sectors such as internet, media, computing, and robotics [6] - The expansion of domestic demand is identified as a key growth driver, with recommendations for food and beverage, consumer services, and aviation sectors [6] - The financial sector is viewed as a stabilizing force, benefiting from the growth in wealth management demand, with recommendations for insurance, brokerage, and banking [6] Group 7 - Suggested ETFs for investment include: - AI applications/emerging technology: Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH), Media ETF (516190.SH) - Domestic demand: Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH) - Financial sector: Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190.SH) - Broad market: CSI 300 ETF (510330.SH) [7]

Group 1 - The volatility in commodity prices is significantly impacting the operational limits of upstream and downstream enterprises, highlighting the urgent need for risk management [1] - Futures and derivatives are no longer just speculative tools in the capital market but have become essential for stabilizing production and operations in the real economy [1] - The core of futures services to the real economy lies in accurately addressing enterprises' "price anxiety" and providing a "buffer" for production operations [1] Group 2 - Different industries and enterprises face unique risk points, necessitating tailored hedging strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach [2] - Jewelry manufacturers have shifted from a single futures position to deep in-the-money call options to mitigate risks while retaining upside potential [2] - Cable manufacturers utilize flexible options hedging strategies to manage costs effectively and return to a state of secure operations [2] Group 3 - The essence of futures services to the real economy is to adhere to the original intention of "risk hedging" amidst rising market speculation and trading risks [3] - Regulatory bodies are enhancing oversight and risk monitoring systems to prevent chain reactions caused by price fluctuations [3] - The futures industry is committed to educating investors and guiding enterprises to rationally engage in hedging, avoiding speculative tendencies [3]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 3 日 0 / 47 | 股指期货：做空动能释放 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：波澜不惊 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面小幅震荡 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡 | 国内价格偏弱 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽度震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面底部震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 | 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 金银：金银震荡初显企稳，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：巨幅震荡逐步收敛 风险释放后等待低多机会 17 | | 铜：恐慌情绪退坡，铜价企稳 17 | | 氧化铝：震荡为主 18 | | 电解铝：流动性收紧带动价格回调后 震荡为主 19 | | 铸造铝合金：连日回调后 铝合金随板块震荡 20 | ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 3 日星期二 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格下跌 126 元至 5991 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 5990 元/吨（环比-210），山东地区现货价格 6135 元/吨（环比-40）。持仓方面， 多头减少 1504 手至 2.2 万手，空头减少 1642 手至 2.41 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant adjustments due to increased external uncertainties, including the nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chairman affecting expectations for U.S. monetary easing and a global decline in commodity prices impacting market sentiment [1][3] Market Performance - The A-share market showed weak performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.5%. The market has been in a correction phase since January 13 due to high turnover rates and overheated sentiment. Major indices, including the CSI 300 and the ChiNext Index, also saw declines of 2.1% and 2.5% respectively, while the STAR Market Index dropped by 3.9% [2][3] External Factors - The adjustment in the A-share market is primarily attributed to external uncertainties, such as the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has altered market expectations for monetary policy. Walsh's previous hawkish stance has led to reduced expectations for a dovish shift in Fed policy, causing market volatility [3][4] - Additionally, a significant drop in global commodity prices has affected risk appetite and sentiment in equity markets. The price of gold, which had surged earlier, saw a decline of over 20% from its peak, contributing to a broader sell-off in commodities and impacting investor sentiment [3][4] Investment Strategy - The current market volatility presents opportunities for bottom-fishing investments. Despite the fluctuations, positive factors such as ample liquidity, improving earnings, and industry trends remain unchanged. The company suggests that the short-term volatility has begun to create opportunities for strategic investments [4][5] - In the medium term, the company emphasizes that the restructuring of international order and the resonance with China's industrial innovation trends are the core drivers of the current market rally and the revaluation of Chinese assets. These conditions are expected to continue supporting the performance of Chinese assets through 2026 [4][5] Sector Focus - The company recommends focusing on several sectors for investment: 1. Growth sectors such as AI technology, which is expected to enter an application phase by 2026, with opportunities in optical modules and cloud computing infrastructure [5] 2. Export-oriented sectors, including home appliances, engineering machinery, and gaming, which are seen as certain growth opportunities [5] 3. Cyclical sectors that are nearing improvement points in supply-demand dynamics, such as chemicals and renewable energy [5] 4. High-dividend quality stocks, which are expected to attract long-term capital due to their stable cash flows and dividend certainty [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market is affected by macro - factors such as the nomination of the new Fed chairman, leading to a weakening of market sentiment. Different industries show different trends, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, and some being affected by seasonal factors and cost - related factors. - For specific industries, there are differences in supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. For example, some industries are in a state of supply - demand double - weakness, while others have a better supply - demand relationship. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Ethylene Glycol**: In February, MEG faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, with short - term supply - demand being weak and long - term improving. The price is under pressure above. EG2605 is expected to oscillate between 3700 - 4100. Attention should be paid to the EG5 - 9 positive spread opportunity at low levels, and sell the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 at high levels [2]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: It maintains inventory reduction, and the price drops. Pay attention to short - term long opportunities at low prices. The steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and the long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be held. Consider short - term long opportunities for hot - rolled coil at 3250 [3]. - **Meal Products**: The supply is loose throughout the February market. The market may maintain a downward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [4]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The risk appetite has significantly decreased, and the A - share market has declined under pressure. Suggest to control portfolio risks and wait for stability, and hold bilateral call option positions [5][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The risk appetite has declined, and the bond market shows a differentiated trend, with ultra - long bonds being relatively strong. The 10 - year Treasury yield may fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.85%, and the T2603 contract may oscillate between 108 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies suggest interval operations, and curve strategies suggest narrowing the spread between ultra - long bonds and other varieties. Investors are advised to arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [8][9]. Precious Metals - The market has fallen sharply, and precious metals have erased last month's gains. Gold can be considered to buy at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options after the market stabilizes. Silver prices may fluctuate greatly between 70 - 110 dollars, and it is recommended to wait and see. Platinum and palladium are expected to enter a consolidation stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [10][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC disk oscillates downward. In the medium - to - long - term, the price is in a downward range. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [14]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The expectation of balance - sheet reduction and the pressure on risk appetite have led to a decline in copper prices from high levels. In the short term, the price may return to fundamental pricing, and it is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract paying attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [15][18]. Alumina - The alumina market is in a wide - range oscillation around the industry cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at the lower price limit and short unilaterally at high prices [18][20]. Aluminum - The aluminum price has a high - volatility characteristic in the short term. It is recommended to make long positions after the price stabilizes and the volatility decreases, and pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23500 [21][23]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to continue the high - level range oscillation pattern, with the main contract reference range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to use the strategy of going long AD03 and shorting AL03 for arbitrage [24][26]. Zinc - The zinc price has fallen from high levels. The price has support below, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 24000. Adopt a short - term wait - and - see strategy and a long - term long - at - low strategy [27][31]. Tin - The tin price has fallen by the limit. In the short term, it is recommended to participate cautiously, and in the long - term, maintain a long - at - low strategy [31][34]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to first decline with the macro - situation and then oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 128000 - 140000. It is recommended to operate within the range [35][37]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 13200 - 14500. Pay attention to macro changes and steel - mill dynamics [38][40]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to continue to decline and adjust in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously, and the risk of going long unilaterally on the left side is relatively large [41][44]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the post - Spring Festival order recovery and production - capacity regulation [46][47]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation. Pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [48][49]. Ferrous Metals Steel - The steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be held. Consider short - term long opportunities for hot - rolled coil at 3250 [50][51]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to try short positions, but be vigilant against macro and market - sentiment disturbances [52][55]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price is expected to be in a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1050 - 1250. It is recommended to use the strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke for arbitrage [56][60]. Coke - The coke price is expected to be in a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1600 - 1800. It is recommended to use the strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke for arbitrage [61][63]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price is expected to oscillate widely. Pay attention to the macro - sentiment disturbance and the February pricing of HBIS [64][66]. Manganese Silicon - The manganese - silicon price is expected to oscillate widely, with the reference range of 5600 - 6000. Pay attention to the macro - sentiment disturbance [67][70]. Agricultural Products Meal Products - The supply is loose throughout the February market. The market may maintain a downward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [71][72]. Live Pigs - The spot price may be supported in the short term, but the futures market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillation pattern [73][74]. Corn - The corn price has fallen due to increased supply. The decline space is limited, and attention should be paid to the subsequent grain - selling rhythm and policy - release intensity [75][76]. Sugar - The raw - sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly at a low level. The domestic market is expected to oscillate around the previous high of 5300. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [77]. Cotton - The cotton price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. Pay attention to the support at 14500 [79]. Eggs - The egg price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [81][82]. Oils and Fats - The vegetable - oil sector has fallen generally. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and market - sentiment impacts [83][85]. Jujubes - The jujube price is expected to maintain an oscillating bottom - building trend [87][89]. Apples - The apple price is affected by the inventory situation. Pay attention to the post - festival inventory situation [90][91]. Energy and Chemicals PX - The PX price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the support at 7000 - 7100, and consider low - long opportunities after the market stabilizes [92][93]. PTA - The PTA price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the support at 5000 - 5100, and consider low - long opportunities after the market stabilizes. Also, consider the positive spread of TA5 - 9 at low levels [94]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price follows the raw - material price. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA, and reduce the spread when the processing fee is high [95][96]. Bottle Chips - The bottle - chip price is expected to follow the cost. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA, and reduce the spread when the processing fee of the main contract is high. Also, sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 at high levels [97][98]. Ethylene Glycol - In February, MEG faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, with short - term supply - demand being weak and long - term improving. The price is under pressure above. EG2605 is expected to oscillate between 3700 - 4100. Attention should be paid to the EG5 - 9 positive spread opportunity at low levels, and sell the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 at high levels [99][100]. Pure Benzene - The pure - benzene price may follow the oil price and downstream styrene. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [101]. Styrene - The styrene price is under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [102][103]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price has fallen, and the trading is weak. It is recommended to stop the previous long positions and wait and see [104][105]. PP - The PP price is in a state of supply - demand double - weakness and oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see [105]. Methanol - The methanol price has fallen significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, and the previous long positions have been stopped [106]. Caustic Soda - The caustic - soda price is expected to be weakly stable. Pay attention to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [107][108]. PVC - The PVC price is expected to be stable in the short term. Pay attention to the post - festival supply pressure and downstream demand [109][110]. Urea - The urea price is expected to be weakly oscillating. Pay attention to the factory's pre - festival order - receiving strategy and the release rhythm of agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand [111][112]. Soda Ash - The soda - ash price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of 1150 - 1250. Pay attention to the post - festival production - line changes and downstream glass - industry start - up situation [113][115]. Glass - The glass price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of 1000 - 1100. Pay attention to the post - festival production - line and inventory changes and macro - policies [114][116]. Natural Rubber - The natural - rubber price has fallen. It is recommended to wait and see, considering the support from the overseas production - reduction period [116][120]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic - rubber price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the support of BR2604 at 12500 [120][122].

Core Viewpoint - The transition towards "new and old coexisting" for institutional investors is occurring, indicating a shift from "new surpassing old" in 2025 to a balanced allocation in 2026, emphasizing the need to invest in both AI technology and cyclical sectors like manufacturing and commodities [1][3]. Group 1: Technology Sector Rebalancing - The essence of the "new" is the downward movement of AI technology, transitioning towards the fourth stage of supply-demand gaps, with upstream gaps in copper, storage, and power equipment, and downstream gaps in AI applications and components [1][3]. - The internal rebalancing within technology indicates a need to avoid simplistic trading strategies based on risk preferences [3]. Group 2: Export and Overseas Business Rebalancing - The "old" aspect reflects a shift in exports and overseas business towards the midstream, with traditional industries stabilizing and growing profits as they move from downstream manufacturing to midstream sectors like engineering machinery, wind power, chemicals, and industrial metals [1][3]. - The rebalancing in overseas business highlights the increasing profitability and growth potential of midstream manufacturing compared to downstream exports [3][24]. Group 3: Resource Pricing Rebalancing - In 2026, resource pricing may not align with the assumption of a consistently weak dollar, suggesting a potential for a stronger dollar, emphasizing the return to commodity attributes and a decline in financial attributes [1][4]. - The focus on resource pricing indicates that commodities driven by supply-demand fundamentals are more likely to see price increases, making them attractive for continued investment [4][24]. Group 4: Institutional Investor Trends - Observations from Q4 2025 indicate a clear consensus among institutional investors on AI technology, overseas equipment, and globally priced resources as key investment areas, with these sectors showing significant gains in the A-share market [2][5]. - The increase in FOF products and the rise of passive funds reflect a strong demand for stable, income-generating investment products, while active funds are experiencing a decline [5][41]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - In Q4 2025, institutional investors increased their holdings in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, while reducing exposure in pharmaceuticals, computing, electronics, media, and renewable energy [5][6]. - The allocation towards AI technology is showing divergence, with a decrease in holdings for sectors with weaker earnings visibility, while sectors with strong earnings, like CPO, are seeing increased investment [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant adjustment due to increased external uncertainties, particularly related to the nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chairman and the subsequent impact on market liquidity expectations [2]. Market Performance - The A-share market showed weak performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.5%. Other major indices also declined, including the CSI 300 down 2.1%, the STAR 50 down 3.9%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.5%. The total trading volume was 2.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 0.26 trillion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. External Influences - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has altered expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy, leading to increased market volatility. Warsh's previous hawkish stance has raised concerns about a shift away from accommodative policies, impacting liquidity expectations [2]. - A significant drop in global commodity prices has also affected market sentiment, with gold prices experiencing a decline of over 20% from their recent peak. This shift in risk appetite has influenced investor behavior in the equity markets, particularly affecting the performance of previously strong sectors like metals [2]. Investment Strategy - The current market volatility presents a buying opportunity. Despite the fluctuations, positive factors such as ample liquidity, improving earnings, and industry trends remain intact. The market may have already priced in a significant amount of pessimism, suggesting potential for recovery [3]. - Recommended sectors for investment include: 1. **Growth Areas**: Focus on AI technology, cloud computing infrastructure, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are entering a growth cycle [4]. 2. **Export Opportunities**: Emphasize sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and gaming that benefit from international demand [4]. 3. **Cyclical Recovery**: Target industries nearing improvement in supply-demand dynamics, such as chemicals and renewable energy [4]. 4. **High Dividend Stocks**: Consider companies with strong cash flow and dividend certainty for long-term investment [4].

近期，A股央企控股上市公司2025年全年业绩预告密集披露。总体来看，中央企业业绩呈现多层次、立 体化改善的积极态势：一部分企业在优势赛道实现业绩大幅预增；一部分企业成功扭亏为盈，重归健康 发展轨道；还有一部分企业虽仍面临挑战，但通过深刻变革实现了亏损额显著收窄。总体来看，共有 110余家央企控股上市公司2025年业绩"预喜"，其中23家实现归母净利润扭亏为盈、46家企业实现净利 润同比增长、41家企业亏损幅度收窄。从行业来看，军工、钢铁、化工等行业表现亮眼。（上证报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the "transformation bull market" has significant room for growth, driven by the downward shift in risk-free returns, capital market reforms, and China's economic transformation. Value stocks are expected to reach an important turning point after years of decline and valuation compression [1]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The new economic growth center is shifting upward, with a broader range of profit improvements expected. By Q4 2025, the acceleration of economic transformation will lead to a noticeable rise in the new economic growth center, expanding from AI to sectors like overseas expansion, resource products, and service consumption [1]. - The emerging technology industry is experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with a significant increase in internal price hikes across various segments [1]. - Four structural characteristics of profit growth in Q4 are identified: 1. Emerging economies remain the primary high-growth area for Q4 performance, with significant increases in electricity consumption in the technology service sector [1]. 2. The profit share of mid- and downstream manufacturing is increasing, with improved inflation and smooth cost transmission in the new economy [1]. 3. Large and mid-cap companies show greater profit growth elasticity, with improved production expectations and order conditions [1]. 4. High-tech export performance remains strong, with semiconductor, automotive, power equipment, and engineering machinery exports growing faster than overall exports [1]. Group 2: Sector Insights - The technology and manufacturing sectors are driven by increased AI penetration and accelerated overseas expansion. The demand for emerging industries is surging due to the continuous rise in AI-related new business penetration across various sectors [2]. - In the cyclical resources sector, global tariffs and geopolitical tensions are causing supply disruptions, while new demands from AI and power infrastructure are expanding. Prices for non-ferrous metals, sulfur, phosphorus chemicals, and fluorine chemicals are expected to rise significantly in Q4 2025, leading to sustained profit growth in these industries [2]. - Domestic consumption policies are accelerating the transition of consumption structure towards services, with the stock market's trading center expected to rise significantly by 2025, benefiting sectors like insurance and securities [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-crowded sectors with upward profit expectations, including non-bank financials, batteries, electronics, machinery, two-wheeled vehicles, and commercial vehicles. These sectors have not fully reflected the current profit expectation revisions in their stock prices [3]. - Two dimensions are used to assess sectors that have not adequately incorporated profit expectation revisions: 1. Profit-price matching degree, highlighting industries like batteries, components, shipbuilding, motorcycles, and engineering machinery that have lagged in stock performance since November 2025 [3]. 2. Profit-crowding degree, identifying sectors like non-bank financials, machinery, and electronics that have upward profit revisions but limited stock price increases [3].