Group 1: High-Level Opening Up - High-level opening up is a strategic choice to respond to external uncertainties and enhance national security capabilities [1] - The focus is on improving customs facilitation, stabilizing foreign investment and trade, and encouraging enterprises to expand internationally [1] - The proactive approach to opening up aims to enhance domestic circulation and improve the quality of international circulation, thereby gaining an advantage in economic development and international competition [1] Group 2: Customs Efficiency - Shanghai's Waigaoqiao Port is the largest port for automobile imports and exports in China, with a throughput of 3.63 million vehicles in 2024, ranking first globally [2] - The customs process has been optimized through a seamless logistics coordination mechanism, ensuring efficient and safe automobile exports [2] - The port operates 15 international automobile roll-on/roll-off shipping routes, connecting to 289 ports in 131 countries and regions [2] Group 3: Investment Quality - Lujiazui Financial City in Shanghai attracts significant foreign investment, housing 70% of the country's foreign asset management institutions and 40% of foreign banks and securities firms [4] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, Shanghai has utilized over $98 billion in foreign investment, with an annual average of over 5,700 new foreign enterprises established [4] - The proportion of foreign investment in Shanghai increased from 14% in 2020 to 15.2% in 2024 [4] Group 4: International Expansion - Shanghai's total import and export value reached 11.07 trillion yuan in 2024, a 26.5% increase from 2020, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 4% [7] - Cross-border e-commerce has seen an annual growth rate of over 35% since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with 636 enterprises participating in offshore trade by 2024 [7] - Wujiang Minsk Trading Co. reported a 190% year-on-year increase in exports in the first seven months of the year, driven by local government initiatives [7] Group 5: Digital Trade Growth - Hainan's digital trade volume reached 28.79 billion yuan in 2024, a 44.5% year-on-year increase, with computer service exports growing by 1.3 times [10] - The establishment of the Hainan University of Applied Sciences reflects the recognition of China's educational innovation policies and the integration of international talent cultivation [6] - The Shanghai Hongqiao Overseas Development Service Center has organized 122 outbound activities this year, attracting around 3,500 enterprises [10]

Core Viewpoint - Expanding domestic demand is identified as the core engine for stabilizing economic growth and restructuring in China, especially in the context of a sluggish global economic recovery and changing external demand conditions [1] Group 1: Domestic Demand Expansion - In 2025, a series of policy measures will be implemented to continuously expand and improve the domestic demand market, contributing to a 53.5% growth rate in final consumption expenditure for the first three quarters of this year, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The domestic demand market not only stabilizes the economy but also fosters new growth points such as service consumption and green consumption, injecting lasting momentum into high-quality development [1] Group 2: Service Consumption Growth - The booming concert economy reflects a deep transformation in consumer attitudes, with younger generations willing to spend on experiences rather than material possessions, marking a shift towards service consumption as a significant growth point [3] - In the first ten months of this year, service retail sales in China increased by 5.3%, surpassing the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods by 1 percentage point [3] Group 3: Trade and Market Adjustments - In response to external pressures, many foreign trade enterprises are shifting their focus to the domestic market, with various initiatives being launched to facilitate this transition, including the establishment of foreign trade product sections in large supermarkets and e-commerce platforms [5] - The Central Economic Work Conference has prioritized the goal of "domestic demand dominance" for 2026, emphasizing the need for actions to boost consumption and optimize the implementation of new policies [5] Group 4: Replacement and Upgrading Policies - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement policies has shown significant effects, with over 25 trillion yuan in sales driven by replacement programs from January to November this year, benefiting over 360 million people [4] - Specific figures include over 11.2 million vehicles replaced under the old-for-new policy, over 12.8 million home appliances, and over 9 million digital products [4]

Core Insights - A total of 1,094 A-share listed companies have subscribed to financial products this year, with a cumulative investment amount of 770.72 billion yuan [1][2] - In December alone, 138 companies announced the use of idle funds for financial product purchases, totaling 15.61 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Dongpeng Beverage announced an investment of 1.252 billion yuan in financial products through six institutions, aiming to enhance fund efficiency and ensure safety [1] - Hisense Home Appliances reported a total investment of 1.76 billion yuan in financial products through its subsidiaries [2] - Wangfujing disclosed an investment of 850 million yuan in structured deposits and large-denomination certificates of deposit [2] Group 2: Investment Preferences - Companies primarily invest in structured deposits, large-denomination certificates of deposit, bank wealth management, and securities company products, focusing on low-risk and high-liquidity options [2] - Structured deposits are the most favored investment product among listed companies [2] Group 3: Analyst Recommendations - Analysts suggest that investors should rationally assess the nature and scale of the funds used by companies for financial management, particularly distinguishing between short-term idle funds and long-term investments [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market is entering a new phase of high-quality development in dividend distribution, with total dividends expected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025, surpassing the previous year's 2.4 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][4][11] - The continuous optimization of the dividend ecosystem is reflected not only in the scale but also in the frequency and coverage of dividends, with 267 companies disclosing third-quarter dividends in 2025, a significant increase from previous years [1][6][11] Dividend Scale and Structure - As of December 15, 2025, A-share listed companies have announced a total dividend amount close to 2.5 trillion yuan, with projections indicating it could exceed 2.6 trillion yuan when including companies with disclosed but unimplemented dividend plans [4][5] - Historical data shows a steady increase in A-share dividend amounts, with actual dividends of 2.07 trillion yuan, 2.13 trillion yuan, and 2.4 trillion yuan from 2022 to 2024, reflecting improved awareness and capability of companies regarding dividends [5][11] Frequency and Coverage - The notable increase in dividend frequency is one of the most prominent changes in 2025, with a significant rise in companies opting for quarterly dividends, alongside traditional annual and semi-annual distributions [6][11] - The number of companies disclosing third-quarter dividends has increased dramatically from 30 in 2022 to 267 in 2025, although slightly lower than the 362 in 2024, indicating a multi-fold growth trend [6][11] Policy Support and Market Dynamics - Continuous policy support from regulatory bodies, including the China Securities Regulatory Commission, has been crucial in promoting cash dividends and share buybacks, leading to a positive shift in market ecology [2][11] - The dividend landscape is expanding beyond traditional sectors, with industries like pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and home appliances showing significant dividend potential, as evidenced by leading companies like China Mobile and Kweichow Moutai [2][11] Systematic Upgrades in Dividend Policies - The regulatory framework has been strengthened to ensure a healthy development of the A-share dividend system, with revisions to the Securities Law and new guidelines aimed at enhancing the regularity of dividend distributions [9][11] - The introduction of incentives for companies to increase dividend payouts, including reduced costs for dividend distribution, reflects a commitment to improving shareholder returns [10][11] Future Directions for Dividend Growth - There is still room for improvement in the A-share dividend market, particularly in enhancing the dividend contributions from emerging industries like technology and healthcare, which currently lag behind traditional sectors [12] - The concentration of dividend payouts among large-cap stocks indicates a need for better governance and profitability among mid and small-cap companies, which could be addressed through differentiated disclosure and incentive mechanisms [12]

消费领域方面，乔虹表示，2025年以来中国社会消费品零售总额增速约为4%，这一增长主要得益于政 府推出的"以旧换新"补贴计划，重点支持汽车、家电和电子产品等大件商品。不过受去年同期高基数影 响，近几个月相关领域的消费增速有所放缓。 乔虹预计，2026年政府将延续规模约3000亿元人民币的补贴计划，且可能将补贴范围从大件商品扩大至 更多小件商品，进一步支持商品消费；而服务消费相关提振措施最早或于2026年下半年推出。 对于房地产市场，乔虹指出，内地楼市的下行趋势预计将在2026年见底。她对21世纪经济报道记者表 示，一线城市房价有望率先回暖，待其企稳后，复苏态势将逐步传导至二三线城市市场。 12月16日，美银证券大中华首席经济学家乔虹在亚洲及大中华区经济宏观展望会上表示，预计中国2026 年全年GDP增长率将达到4.7%。她同时表示，届时内地有望出台更多逆周期调节政策，以支持经济增 长贴近目标水平。 她进一步分析指出，2026年中国经济增长的动力结构将发生变化，内需的重要性进一步提升，而出口对 增长的拉动作用相较于2025年或有所减弱。 乔虹表示，为持续刺激内需，内地货币政策将会适度宽松。中国人民银行在2026 ...

雷达财经出品 文|丁禹 编|孟帅 "我们依然坚持不用'铝代铜'"，在小米、美的、海尔等多家空调巨头齐齐加入《空调铝强化应用研究工作组自律公约》之际，"铁娘子"董明珠斩 钉截铁地向外界表态称，"直到铝能够完全替代铜，我一定上铝。" 尽管"铝代铜"具备成本优势这一极具竞争力的杀手锏，但董明珠有着更为审慎的考量。她认为，铝还没有达到铜这样的同等的技术条件和保 障。在没有十足的把握之前，不会使用"铝代铜"。 不过，这并不意味着格力电器对"铝代铜"技术持忽视态度。恰恰相反，格力电器不仅是"空调铝强化应用研究工作组"的成员单位，还参与"铝代 铜"相关《房间空气调节器用热交换器》国家标准的修订。 同时，格力电器在铝业布局多年，多年来间接投资了多家铝企业。此外，格力电器的股东格力集团，去年还曾推动龙源金科铝管项目落地珠 海。 有观点认为，在格力电器业绩承压的背景下，倘若友商采用"铝代铜"后进一步内卷价格，格力或面临更为严峻的挑战。在此背景下，其"铝代 铜"的技术研发进程或加速推进。 然而，格力的"缺席"也从侧面释放出一个重要信息，即"铝代铜"技术在当下仍然面临着诸多方面的挑战，其中技术层面的难题尤为突出。 友商抱团"铝代铜" ...

格隆汇12月16日丨海尔智家(06690.HK)公告，12月16日耗资708.1万元回购26万A股，回购价格每股 27.12-27.3元。 ...

Trade Environment - The trade environment is stabilizing as US-China relations improve, with significant agreements reached during recent talks[5] - Major economies in Europe and the US are still in a phase of fiscal expansion and monetary easing, with the IMF predicting stable economic growth in developed economies[8][9] Export Growth Analysis - Global trade growth is expected to slow down due to high base effects from "export grabbing" and increased tariff rates, with a projected growth rate of 0-1% for exports in 2026[2] - Exports to the US and ASEAN may exhibit a "seesaw" effect, with significant contributions from transshipment trade to ASEAN exports this year[2] - Africa is identified as the fastest-growing export region, driven by demand for vehicles, ships, and consumer electronics[2] Economic Forecasts - The IMF forecasts that global trade volume growth will decline from approximately 3.7% in 2025 to 2.0% in 2026, with China's export volume growth expected to drop from 9.8% to 1.9%[20][21] - The US economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see slight declines in growth rates[9][8] Currency and Pricing - The RMB is anticipated to maintain a "stable yet slightly strong" trend, with export prices expected to decline marginally by around 2%[2] - The IMF predicts a decrease in global trade prices from 0.6% in 2025 to 0.1% in 2026, influenced by falling oil prices and domestic inflationary pressures[2] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include geopolitical conflicts and unexpected macroeconomic fluctuations that could impact trade dynamics[2]

Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - The cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants in December decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, compared to a 7.2% decline in November, indicating a continuation of weak demand in both power and non-power sectors [1][6] - The industrial operating rates showed mixed results, with the operating rate of steel blast furnaces down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 0.1 percentage points [7][8] - Key steel mills reported a 1.4% month-on-month decline in crude steel production, with a 4.5% year-on-year decrease, while rebar production fell by 10.5% month-on-month and 16.2% year-on-year [9] Group 2: Construction and Material Supply - The funding availability rate for construction sites improved marginally, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in funding for both non-residential and residential construction [11] - The asphalt production rate remained stable month-on-month but decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating fluctuations in construction activity [11][12] - The national cement dispatch rate recorded a 30.09% rate, down 3.1 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a slowdown in construction material supply [12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales Trends - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 1.4% year-on-year, while domestic flight operations rose by 1.3%, suggesting a slight recovery in consumer mobility [3][12] - Real estate sales remained weak, with a 32.9% year-on-year decline in average daily transactions of commercial housing in major cities during the first half of December [16] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles saw a significant drop of 32% year-on-year, with wholesale sales down by 40%, indicating a contraction in consumer spending in the automotive sector [17] Group 4: Manufacturing and Export Activity - The container throughput at domestic ports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, although this growth rate was lower than the 10.2% recorded in November, reflecting ongoing resilience in trade [21] - The Business Price Index (BPI) showed signs of recovery, with a 0.8% increase compared to the end of November, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [24] - The production of household appliances continued to decline, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines dropping significantly, reflecting reduced consumer demand [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from a focus on temperature regulation to a more personalized experience that caters to individual comfort needs [3][4]. Group 1: Technological Innovations - Haier Air Conditioning won the first prize at the 34th National Building Materials and Home Furnishing Industry Annual Conference for its technology that allows a single air conditioner to emit two different temperature airflows simultaneously, addressing the issue of varying temperature preferences within the same household [3]. - The new technology enables the air conditioner to create two distinct temperature zones within a room, such as providing 26°C air in one area while delivering 28°C air in another, effectively solving the problem of individual temperature comfort [3][4]. - The air conditioning system can deliver comfortable airflow up to 16 meters away while maintaining a temperature difference of ±0.5°C throughout the room, alleviating common issues like uneven cooling and direct cold air blowing [4]. Group 2: Design and Efficiency - Haier has developed an intelligent design platform for its fans, which utilizes historical data to optimize the design of fan blades and airflow paths, resulting in quieter operation and reduced energy consumption [4]. - The new fan design significantly lowers operational noise and energy usage, translating complex algorithms into a user-friendly experience of quietness and energy efficiency [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The air conditioning industry is shifting its competitive focus from merely providing colder or more energy-efficient products to understanding and meeting the diverse needs of consumers [4][5]. - As most companies continue to compete on hardware specifications, Haier's approach emphasizes individual comfort, potentially serving as a catalyst for the next wave of industry transformation [5].