如上图所示，原油势将创下多个月以来的最强劲涨势——原油在从伊朗到委内瑞拉的地缘政治风险推动 下大举反弹，但是在市场避险情绪影响之下周五有所回调。 美国总统特朗普呼吁伊朗参与核谈判，而德黑兰方面则警告将采取报复措施，这无疑引发了人们对美伊 紧张局势再度升级的担忧。市场关注的焦点在于这些紧张局势可能对霍尔木兹海峡航运造成的影响。霍 尔木兹海峡是伊朗和阿拉伯半岛之间的一条狭窄通道，对全球能源流动至关重要，每天都有大量运输原 油和液化天然气的油轮通过。 智通财经APP获悉，由于大宗商品交易员们权衡美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗与古巴本土不断升级的 军事或政治干预威胁，以及任何潜在的双方敌对行动将如何影响中东与拉美地区的原油以及石油成品供 应流，尤其是交易员们愈发担忧全球原油与天然气海上运输要道——中东霍尔木兹海峡可能因美伊擦枪 走火而陷入紧急封锁，国际原油价格基准——布伦特原油期货价格势将创下自2023年7月份以来最大规 模的月度涨幅。 最新数据显示，布伦特原油在周四自7月以来首次升破每桶70美元关口后，在亚盘初期仍然维持在70美 元上方区域，不过之后不久便跟随铜、黄金以及白银等金属价格而下跌，但跌幅不到1%，在跌破7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current major driving factor for crude oil is geopolitical factors. With the U.S. increasing its military presence in the Middle East and potential actions against Iran, short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Fuel oil prices are affected by factors such as demand recovery, supply changes, and geopolitical situations. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For asphalt, with a slight decline in refinery production in February and weak demand in the off - season, attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and downstream negative feedback [5]. - Rubber prices are affected by production and consumption data, as well as cost - side factors. They are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - Methanol supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $2.21 to $65.42 per barrel, a 3.50% increase; Brent March contract rose $2.31 to $70.71 per barrel, a 3.38% increase; SC2603 closed at 480.9 yuan per barrel, up 13.9 yuan per barrel, a 2.98% increase. The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Middle East, and OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday. The current major driving factor for oil prices is geopolitical factors, and short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. As of the week of January 26, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, while Fujeirah's inventory increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is supported by demand, but there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the future. High - sulfur fuel oil has mixed factors. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 closed down on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A polyester factory in Shandong has shut down for maintenance, and a MEG device in Fujian has restarted. The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. According to the ANRPC December report, global natural rubber production decreased and consumption increased in December. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increased slightly. Rubber prices are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends in different regions. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. MTO device load has decreased, and port inventory reduction is under pressure. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. Supply is at a high level as some upstream maintenance devices have resumed production. Demand will weaken as downstream factories approach the Spring Festival holiday. It is expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is slowing down. PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the daily basis data of various energy - chemical products on January 30, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. Market News - Due to U.S. President Trump's consideration of military strikes against Iran, an OPEC member, crude oil prices rose by more than 3%. Trump is weighing targeted strikes against Iranian security forces and leaders to support anti - government protesters and create conditions for regime change [11]. - Trump has deployed the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East and warned Iran that the time to reach an agreement on its nuclear program is running out. The market is worried that U.S. military intervention will lead to an interruption in regional crude oil supply, and potential supply risks continue to support oil prices [11]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between fuel oil 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts, the spread between asphalt main and sub - main contracts, etc. [45][47][50] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - commodity contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils, etc. [61][64][66] - **Production Profit**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as the production profit of LLDPE, the processing fee of PTA, etc. [68][70]

智通财经APP获悉，由于大宗商品交易员们权衡美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗与古巴本土不断升级的军事或政治干预威胁，以 及任何潜在的双方敌对行动将如何影响中东与拉美地区的原油以及石油成品供应流，尤其是交易员们愈发担忧全球原油与天然 气海上运输要道——中东霍尔木兹海峡可能因美伊擦枪走火而陷入紧急封锁，国际原油价格基准——布伦特原油期货价格势将 创下自2023年7月份以来最大规模的月度涨幅。 最新数据显示，布伦特原油在周四自7月以来首次升破每桶70美元关口后，在亚盘初期仍然维持在70美元上方区域，不过之后不 久便跟随铜、黄金以及白银等金属价格而下跌，但跌幅不到1%，在跌破70美元与略上方徘徊。与此同时，已经下跌多日的美元 指数则显著反弹，对大宗商品价格造成重大压制力。 而北美原油定价基准——西德克萨斯中质原油(即WTI原油)期货价格则接近65美元。美国总统特朗普的最新表态已从因德黑兰 对抗议者的致命镇压而计划军事惩罚伊朗，转向本周寻求达成一项新的核协议，然而双方谈妥的概率仍然非常低。 尽管市场仍然预期2026至2027年全球原油供应增加的同时需求可能将持续萎靡，将对不断国际油价形成下行压力，但是特朗普 政府对伊朗的持 ...

2025年我国可再生能源发电量达到约4.0万亿千瓦时，超过欧盟27国用电量之和。 文丨本报记者 王林 国家能源局发展规划司副司长邢翼腾介绍，能源安全保障有力有效。202 5年是"十四五"以来能源保供成效最好的一年。原煤生产保持 稳定，规上工业原煤产量同比增长1.2%。油、气产量双创历史新高，规上工业原油产量同比增长1.5%，规上工业天然气产量同比增长 6.2%。电力供应平稳有序，一批特高压直流输电工程投产送电，电力系统互补互济水平持续提升。 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c ne ne rgy） 责编丨李慧颖 1月3 0日，国家能源局召开新闻发布会，《中国能源报》记者在会上了解到，2025年，我国能源供应保障能力有效提升，供需总体宽 松，多项重要政策举措密集出台，行业健康有序发展，新型能源体系建设基础持续夯实，助力我国经济持续回升向好。 绿色低碳转型步伐加快。 制定出台新能源集成融合发展、促进新能源消纳和调控等一系列政策措施，助力新能源发展提质增效。全年 风电光伏新增装机超过4.3亿千瓦、累计装机规模突破18亿千瓦，可再生能源发电装机占比超过六成。 可再生能源发电量达到约4 .0万 亿千 ...

摘要 美国可能对伊朗采取军事行动，大规模军事集结表明美国可能在未来采 取行动，历史经验表明，部队进入攻击阵位后，战争爆发的可能性极高。 美国对伊朗发动攻击需满足航母编队就位及完成军事准备等条件。历史 上，美国在地区冲突中常部署至少两个航母编队，以保证安全和有效打 击。 美国过去几年的军事打击行动主要表现为短期、突击性，目标集中于高 附加值的战略和战术目标，通过高效、精准打击来实现战略目标。 特朗普政府对伊朗采取高附加值目标的精确打击和施加巨大的政治压力 等策略，旨在削弱伊朗内部强硬派力量，促使其在与美国交涉时做出让 步。 伊朗面临来自美国及其盟友的外部压力，包括经济制裁和军事威胁，以 及国内经济困境、社会不满和政治动荡等内部挑战。 美国可能采取加强海上封锁、打击炼油设施、攻击领导人等措施打击伊 朗，伊朗可能采取导弹攻击、反击美国基地、袭击以色列等方式反应， 规模取决于美国打击力度。 国际能源市场供给结构相对稳定，伊朗原油供应占比不高，对全球原油 市场影响有限。地缘政治局势将导致短期内国际油价因恐慌情绪而持续 走高，理性回归后将逐步回落。 Q&A 美国剑拔弩张，中东局势是否会全面失控？对油价有何影 响？2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Energy Administration reports that fuel supply for power plants is stable, ensuring energy security during the peak winter season, particularly with the upcoming Spring Festival [1] Group 1: Fuel Supply and Energy Security - Nationally, the fuel supply for power plants is solid and reliable, with coal reserves in key heating regions exceeding 25 days [1] - The domestic refined oil market is well-supplied, with stable inventories, maintaining a balance between supply and demand during the peak winter season [1] - As of January 27, the cumulative natural gas consumption during the heating season reached 119.52 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1] Group 2: Natural Gas Supply - Both domestic and imported pipeline gas are operating at relatively high and stable levels [1] - Underground gas storage facilities and coastal LNG receiving stations have sufficient adjustment capacity to ensure natural gas supply during the peak winter season [1] Group 3: Preparedness for Adverse Weather - The National Energy Administration will collaborate with relevant provinces and energy companies to enhance monitoring and response to adverse weather conditions, such as low temperatures and snow [1] - The aim is to ensure a stable and orderly energy supply, providing strong support for citizens to have a warm winter and a peaceful New Year [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Geopolitical situations are complex and volatile, affecting multiple commodity markets. For example, the tension between the US and Iran impacts oil, fuel oil, and related energy - related products. The situation in Ukraine also adds to the uncertainty in the market [1][2][21]. - Many commodity markets are influenced by a combination of supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For instance, in the metals market, prices are affected by inventory levels, production capacity, and short - term speculative sentiment [3][4][7]. - Some markets are expected to be in a state of shock or have limited upward/downward space due to various factors such as policy, seasonality, and demand - supply imbalances [11][12][13]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Prices fluctuated sharply last night. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and the EU's sanctions on Iran have increased market concerns. The cease - fire in energy infrastructure may bring some stability, but the market remains volatile [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by rising geopolitical risks, they followed crude oil to rise significantly. The high - sulfur fuel oil shows strong performance due to tight spot supply, while the low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by cost and component factors. The market is expected to follow crude oil and maintain a strong shock, with the differentiation between high - and low - sulfur fundamentals continuing [21]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: - **Coke**: The first round of price increase is expected to be implemented on Friday. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The inventory has increased slightly. Affected by market sentiment, the price may still have upward space in the short term [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price continued to rise. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1618 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the inventory increased. Affected by market sentiment, the price may still rise in the short term [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, they fluctuated violently, with an intraday amplitude of nearly 10%. Market focus is on geopolitical changes. Short - term market information is complex, and the risk of market fluctuations is high [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The price fluctuated violently on Thursday, with the maximum intraday increase of LME copper exceeding 10%. It is guided by funds and emotions. Pay attention to the domestic spot and discount range [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, non - ferrous metals followed precious metals to fall. The spot premium and discount in some regions decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The market is dominated by short - term sentiment, and the volatility is high [4]. - **Zinc**: After the sharp fall of gold and silver at night, the long positions in the non - ferrous sector took profits, and the price of SHFE zinc closed with a long upper shadow. The short - term has an adjustment demand, and there is an opportunity for short - allocation after the high - level adjustment is sufficient [7]. - **Lead**: It is in a weak adjustment under over - supply. Benefiting from the strong bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, it rebounds, but the actual demand is weak, and the rebound space is limited [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel oscillated at a high level. The spot price of stainless steel rose, but the downstream was cautious in purchasing, and the actual transaction was weak. The inventory of steel mills is still at a low level, and traders are willing to support the price [9]. - **Tin**: Compared with surrounding varieties, the price performance is restrained. Pay attention to the domestic spot quotation and track the social inventory. It is recommended to participate in the short - call option of the 2603 contract [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price rebounded. The spot price of manganese ore decreased, and the port inventory may start to accumulate slowly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price rebounded. The power cost in some areas decreased, but the price of semi - coke increased slightly. The demand has some resilience, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [19]. - **Rare Earth Metals**: Not mentioned in the report. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The rise in oil prices strengthens the cost support. The inventory of propylene enterprises is low, but the downstream is more cautious. The supply and demand of polyethylene and polypropylene have different characteristics, and the new order follow - up is insufficient [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed a strong trend at night. The inventory in warehouses in East and South China increased, and the export signing slowed down. The cost support of calcium carbide became stronger. Caustic soda oscillated strongly. The price of liquid caustic soda decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine was strong. The industry is under high - pressure inventory, and the follow - up production reduction needs to be tracked [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Driven by the strong rise in oil prices, they rose again. In the first half of the year, PX can be over - allocated, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, there are opportunities for long - position operations based on PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory increased, and the price encountered resistance at the 4000 mark. In the second quarter, there are expectations of centralized maintenance and demand recovery, but the long - term is still under pressure [30]. - **Urea**: Before the Spring Festival, the industrial downstream demand is expected to decline, and the large - scale spring ploughing fertilizer demand has not started. The supply pressure remains, and the market continues to oscillate strongly within the range [23]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical risks, it rose significantly at night. The overseas device operation rate is low, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly. Although there are some negative factors, the short - term market is expected to run strongly [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price followed the oil price and ran strongly. The inventory in Jiangsu ports increased slightly. The demand increased due to the improvement of downstream profits and the increase in device operation rates [25]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene support the cost. The domestic supply has declined, and the downstream demand has decreased steadily. There is short - term price pressure [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Driven by the drought in Argentina and the weakening of the US dollar, US soybeans continue to oscillate strongly at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal, which may impact the domestic market [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by the spread of re - inflation trading in commodities, they are boosted. The short - term price volatility risk should be noted. The supply - demand of palm oil has improved marginally, and the policies of Indonesia and the US are beneficial to the price [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The zero - pressing of rapeseed in domestic coastal oil mills before the Spring Festival is expected to boost demand. Although affected by geopolitics and policies, the import is expected to be looser after March, and the short - term upward space is limited [37]. - **Corn**: The spot price in Northeast China and North Ports is stable, and the price of some Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased slightly. The short - term Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is weak, reflecting the expected weakening of the spot market. Although the inventory of laying hens will decline in the first half of 2026, the short - term price may fall after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the trading rhythm [41]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The domestic cotton supply and sales are booming, but the downstream order demand is average. Pay attention to the pressure around 15,000 yuan and the change in imports [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic market focuses on the expected difference in production. Although the current production in Guangxi is slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 crushing season, and the short - term price faces pressure [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price oscillates. The Spring Festival stocking is at a peak, but the quality of apples is poor and the purchase price is high, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The market focuses on demand [44]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand has increased year - on - year, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals are still weak due to weak downstream demand. The port inventory has continued to accumulate [46]. Livestock - **Hogs**: The futures and spot prices are falling. The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the price may hit a second bottom in the first half of next year [40]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The three major A - share indexes rose and fell differently yesterday. The futures indexes also showed different trends. The A - share market is expected to change from a unilateral rapid rise to an oscillating upward trend. Pay attention to geopolitical situations and economic policies [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On January 29, 2026, treasury bond futures rose slightly. The market sentiment of going long continues, but the trading is divided. The short - term is expected to continue the box - type shock. Pay attention to the opportunities of steepening and flattening the yield curve [48].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on January 30, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.65% at 27,785.98 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.88% at 5,789.49 points, the National Enterprises Index down 0.68% at 9,487.76 points, and the Red Chip Index down 0.4% at 4,452.34 points [1] - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Alibaba down 1.9%, Tencent down 1.13%, JD.com down 0.79%, Xiaomi down 1.15%, Meituan down 0.56%, Kuaishou down 2.35%, and Bilibili down 1.23% [1] - Gold stocks fell broadly, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining down over 8% [1] - AI application stocks mostly declined, with Pony.ai down over 4% [1] - Oil stocks were active, with PetroChina up over 1% [1] Company Earnings Forecasts - Guoquan (02517.HK) expects revenue for 2025 to be approximately 7.75 billion to 7.85 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 19.8% to 21.3%, and net profit of 443 million to 463 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 83.7% to 92.0% [2] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) anticipates a net profit of 4.5886 billion to 4.7235 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 70.0% to 75.0% [3] - Baidu (02315.HK) expects to achieve revenue of 1.369 billion to 1.389 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.61% to 41.65%, and net profit of 162 million to 182 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 384.26% to 443.88% [3] - WuXi AppTec (09969.HK) forecasts total revenue of approximately 2.365 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 134%, and expects to turn a profit with a net profit of around 633 million RMB [3] - Rainbow New Energy (00438.HK) anticipates revenue of approximately 2.885 billion to 2.915 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of about 11.02% to 11.94%, and a net loss of 542 million to 592 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 44.15% to 57.45% [3] - Dazhong Public Utilities (01635.HK) expects net profit of 350 million to 500 million RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50.12% to 114.46% [3] - Spring Medical (01858.HK) forecasts net profit of 245 million to 288 million RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 96.01% to 130.41% [4] - Meet Xiaomian (02408.HK) expects net profit between 100 million to 115 million RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 64.7% to 89.5% [5] - Macro Holdings (09930.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting a 70%-90% decline in shareholder profit for 2025 [6] - Financial Street Securities (01476.HK) issued a profit alert, expecting shareholder profit to increase to approximately 327 million RMB for 2025 [7] Project Wins and Developments - China Railway (00390.HK) recently won several major projects with a total bid amount of approximately 43.292 billion RMB [8] - New天绿色能源 (00956.HK) reported a cumulative power generation of 15.2104 million MWh for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.71% [9] - Hengrui Medicine (01276.HK) received acceptance for a new indication application for its innovative drug, which may become a new clinical treatment option for patients with unresectable liver cancer [9] - Gilead Sciences (01672.HK) reported positive top-line results from a Phase III open-label study of its oral FASN inhibitor for acne treatment [9] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the performance expectations adjustment and funding disturbances that led to the decline in Hong Kong stocks in Q4 2025 have come to an end, predicting a continuation of the spring market trend into February 2026 [11] - Huashan Securities highlighted that the consumer sector, particularly food and beverage, has experienced a rare downturn for five consecutive years, with many leading companies now at historical valuation levels below 5%/10% [12] - Huayuan Securities projected that the copper supply-demand balance may shift from "tight balance" to "shortage" due to insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines [12] - Shenwan Hongyuan confirmed a high growth trend in brokerage performance for 2025, supported by increased trading activity and a recovery in investment banking and public asset management [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The global economic and financial situation is complex and volatile, with various factors affecting different markets. In the commodity market, precious metals experience significant price fluctuations, and there are supply - demand imbalances in some metals. In the financial market, the bond market is in a state of shock, and the stock market shows a mixed performance. International trade relations also have an impact on the market, such as the potential tariff adjustments between countries [5][21][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In December 2025, China's GDP growth rate slowed down, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed different trends, and the social financing scale decreased compared with the previous month. The growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 also changed, and consumer and producer prices showed different trends. Fixed - asset investment decreased year - on - year, while consumption and trade maintained growth but with varying degrees of slowdown [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warns of market risks due to complex international situations. Some funds and banks adjust relevant parameters, and there are changes in commodity base - spreads. In addition, the Fed's interest - rate decisions and international trade tariff policies also affect the market [2][3][4]. 3.2.2 Metals - Precious metals experience a "roller - coaster" price movement. Gold jewelry prices reach a record high, and there are different outlooks for the gold market in the short - and long - term. The copper market is expected to have supply shortages in 2026 and 2027, and there are changes in the inventories of various metals [5][6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel and Minerals - China's stainless - steel production increased in 2025, while imports decreased. India explores coal reserves in Canada, and Brazil raises steel import tariffs. The Trump administration retreats from the plan to guarantee the minimum price of key mineral projects [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Venezuela reforms its petroleum law to allow private and foreign investment. The US imposes potential tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba [9][10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Chinese government conducts spring seed market inspections. There are changes in US soybean sales, EU crop production forecasts, and Brazil's coffee - baking industry revenue [11][12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank conducts 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds into the market [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - China and the UK reach a series of cooperation agreements, including in the financial field and tariff reduction. China promotes service - consumption growth, and there are positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. There are also news in areas such as transportation, culture and tourism, and finance [15][16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - The Chinese bond market is in a state of shock, with different performances of short - and long - term bonds. There are price changes in exchange - traded bonds, and the convertible - bond market shows a decline. Interest rates in the money market and bond - issuing yields also have different trends [21][22][24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar change, and the US dollar index declines, while most non - US currencies rise [26]. 3.3.5 Research Reports - Different securities firms have different views on the Fed's interest - rate decisions, short - term debt pricing, and the bond market [27]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - There are a large number of bond listings, issuances, payments, and principal - and - interest repayments on January 30, 2026 [29]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market shows a narrow - range consolidation, with the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index and the decline of other indices. The liquor, gold, oil and gas, and real - estate sectors perform strongly, while some high - tech sectors decline. The Hong Kong stock market also shows a mixed performance, with the rise of the Hang Seng Index and the decline of the Hang Seng Tech Index [30].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The report believes that crude oil will operate strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong. The core logic is that geopolitical risks have increased, overshadowing the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market, and boosting the sharp rise of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Thursday night. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain a strong stance on Friday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Crude Oil 2603 - Short - term: Oscillatory [1] - Medium - term: Oscillatory [1] - Intraday: Strong [1] - View reference: Strong operation [1] - Core logic: Geopolitical risks have increased, and crude oil operates strongly [1] Crude Oil (SC) - Intraday view: Strong [5] - Medium - term view: Oscillatory [5] - Reference view: Strong operation [5] - Core logic: Recently, US President Trump has frequently released geopolitical risk signals. Greenland and Canada may be the next targets for the US to seize and attack. With the short - term arrival of US aircraft carriers in the Middle East and Iran's tough remarks, a new round of military conflict between the US and Iran may break out, threatening Middle East crude oil exports. Geopolitical risks have increased again, overshadowing the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market and boosting the sharp rise of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Thursday night [5]